06032016 FitForPurposeintheChangingClimate Greenville SC.pdf

1 Fit For Purpose In a Changing Climate

Fit For Purpose in a Changing Climate

In accordance with, E.O. 13653, and E.O. 13693 and requirements of the A-11 Circular Sections 25.5 and 31.9 all agencies must evaluate climate change vulnerabilities and incorporate incremental climate change and variability factors into the design and operation of capital projects- especially those designated mission critical and sensitive to interruption, relocation or replacement. Whereas the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) primarily addresses impacts and mitigation of a project’s impact on the environment, in this case, the climate’s existing impacts and future impacts to a project site must be addressed to secure the federal investment and support the federal customer’s mission continuity. Generally, climatic factors inform design concepts and solutions. In this case, the same factors including observed climate trends and future projections must also inform what of the existing project design would need to change over the asset life.. A proactive and integrated partnering approach is essential to address climate change risks in the planning, design, construction, operation and renovation of all federal government facilities.

Existing Extreme Weather:

Existing sites and facilities in the Southeast are already experiencing operational impacts due to extremes in temperature, precipitation, and natural climate variability. Recent extreme hot and cold temperatures in duration, flooding and extreme multiday precipitation events such as Hurricane Joaquin have provided lessons learned regarding extreme weather incidents in the region.

Regional Climate Profile:

Greenville, SC is in the Southeast region of the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA includes key messages for this region, which are directly applicable to this project1:

1. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to both natural and built environments and to the regional economy.

2. Increasing temperatures and the associated increase in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events will affect public health, natural and built environments, energy, agriculture, and forestry.

3. Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region’s economy and unique ecosystems.

Climate Change Risk Analysis Study Scope:

Given the existing project design, what (not how or when) must change in the enclosure assembly and site development over the asset life so that it can perform? The expected service life of this asset is to the end of century (2069-2099 projections). The outcomes of the study must be organized to enable GSA to document the level that climate change is a project risk based on the existing design and the implications to asset management and capital improvements to implement phased adaptation to the changing climate. It may also inform or support future capital investments to prevent and avoid costs by reducing or eliminating costly emergency incident responses between normal operations and implementation of Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP) during its service life.

1. Review and only use the climate change projection information provided in attachments and references.

Refer to only to the existing project design and program and performance criteria.

2. Prepare and submit for review and comment for GSA’s approval an approximately two page succinct report (using the GSA template provided). GSA is available to assist and clarify during this study.

1 Carter, L. M., J. W. Jones, L. Berry, V. Burkett, J. F. Murley, J. Obeysekera, P. J. Schramm, and D. Wear, 2014: Ch. 17:

Southeast and the Caribbean. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M.

Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 396-417.

doi:10.7930/J0NP22CB.

2 Fit For Purpose In a Changing Climate

i. GSA has identified the following three (3) primary, existing, and extreme weather and climate impacts which affect the project’s ability to reduce GHG emissions, support mission continuity over time and secure the federal investment.

1. temperature volatility and extremes (warming & cooling) daily, seasonally, and long term effects on durability of the enclosure, systems or site,

2. increased precipitation frequency, intensity and duration of both rain and freezing rain, strong wind gusts, or disruption of site access by suppliers or federal employees.

3. water scarcity, availability and quality

ii. Address the 3 primary, existing, and extreme weather impacts and using the GSA climate change profile provided. Provide professional recommendations focused on the building enclosure, and site design of what (not how or when) would need to change over the asset life to maintain performance.

Recommendations must be simple responses. Identify vulnerabilities and potential consequences if action is not taken.

Based on mission criticality requirements, information from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) Climate and Hydrological Projections and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) and an expected service life of this asset to the end of century (2069-2099 projections), for this site and facility address (reference Decision_Resource _RCP_CMIP_Compressed Greenville SC ):

1. Temperature Change:

a. Increased fluctuation in and increase in cooling degree days (CDD) annually to avoid increased energy demand and operational costs over time but taking into account for climate variability of short term extremes in hot temperatures

b. Increased fluctuation in and decrease in heating degree days (HDD) annually so building systems which are fit for purpose over time but taking into account for climate variability of short term extremes in cold temperatures Example details:

● Ave. number of days per year by mid-century (2040- 2069) above the baseline very hot temp.

(90.0 ○ F) – 132.4 days. Observed value (1950- 1999) is 38.6 days.

● Max. number of consecutive days by mid-century per year above 90 ○ F temp. - 71.9 days. Observed value (1950- 1999) is 11.9 days.

2. Water /Precipitation - Hydrological Changes:

a. Increased intensity duration and frequency of hydrologic extremes requiring a departure from an equilibrium/ stationary site design paradigm.

b. Methods to reduce vulnerabilities of site water infrastructure and other water-related resources Example details:

● Ave. number of baseline “very heavy” precipitation events per year by mid-century (1.1 in/24 hrs.) –

13.1 times (baseline 1950- 1999- 10.2 times)

● “Extremely Heavy” 24 hr. Precipitation Amount (99th percentile precip.)- 1.9 inches

● Largest 3-day precipitation event per season by mid-century (in)- Winter 3.2 inches

Key strategies for the project to address climate risk (within the limits of scope and budget):

● Building enclosure above and below grade and detailing for long term performance/durability and selected materials or systems

3 Fit For Purpose In a Changing Climate

● Water management and paving design (site) to manage projected extreme precipitation loads for long term performance/durability with any known regional/local planning development /land use changes which may contribute to site loads all integrated with the statement of work scope

● Ability to readily adapt the site/facility to modify or enhance its ability resist or accommodate climate extremes in temperature or precipitation

Source: Data from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections archive at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections.

Tool : Run on 03/03/2016 using the U.S. Department of Transportation CMIP5 Climate Data Processing Tool We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed below) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

References/Resources for the Study:

● 2014 National Climate Assessment Chapter 16 Southeast Region

: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast

● Recent U.S. Climate Change and Hydrology Literature Applicable to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missions

South Atlantic- Gulf Region 03 http://corpsclimate.us/docs/rccvarreports/USACE_REGION_03_Climate_Change_Report_CWTS-2015- 03_Hi.pdf See 2.4 Summary of Observed Climate Findings and 3.4 Summary of Future Climate Projection Findings

● National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.

● Executive Order 13653, Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-11-06/pdf/2013-26785.pdf

● Executive Order 13693, Planning for Federal Sustainability in the Next Decade www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/19/executive-order-planning-federal-sustainability-next-decade

● GSA’s FY2014 Climate Change Risk Management Plan www.gsa.gov/portal/mediaId/199751/fileName/GSA_FY_2014_Climate_Change_Risk_Management_P lan.action http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-11-06/pdf/2013-26785.pdf http://www.gsa.gov/portal/mediaId/199751/fileName/GSA_FY_2014_Climate_Change_Risk_Management_Plan.action http://www.gsa.gov/portal/mediaId/199751/fileName/GSA_FY_2014_Climate_Change_Risk_Management_Plan.action