PEELS_Executive_Summary.pdf

PARAMETRIC ENDO/EXOATMOSPHERIC LETHALITY SIMULATION (PEELS)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

March 2014

A terminal endgame simulation that predicts lethality for kinetic energy weapons

DESTRUCTION NOTICE

FOR CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS, FOLLOW THE

PROCEDURES IN NISPOM MANUAL. FOR UNCLASSIFIED

LIMITED DOCUMENTS DESTROY BY ANY METHOD THAT

WILL PREVENT DISCLOSURE OF CONTENTS OR

RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DOCUMENT.

WARNING

THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS TECHNICAL DATA WHOSE

EXPORT IS RESTRICTED BY THE ARMS EXPORT CONTROL

ACT (TITLE 22, U.S.C. SEC. 2751 ET SEQ.) OR EXECUTIVE

ORDER 12470. VIOLATORS OF THESE EXPORT LAWS ARE

SUBJECT TO SEVERE CRIMINAL PENALTIES.

THE VIEWS, OPINIONS AND/OR FINDINGS

CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT ARE THOSE OF THE

AUTHOR(S) AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN

OFFICIAL DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY POSITION,

POLICY, OR DECISION, UNLESS SO DESIGNATED BY

OTHER OFFICIAL DOCUMENTATION.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT C

DISTRIBUTION AUTHORIZED TO U.S. GOVERNMENT

AGENCIES AND THEIR CONTRACTORS FOR

ADMINISTRATIVE AND OPERATIONAL USE, 2

NOVEMBER 2011. REFER ALL OTHER REQUESTS FOR

THIS DOCUMENT TO: MDA/DESL, 5222 MARTIN ROAD,

REDSTONE ARSENAL, AL 35898

Table of Contents

ACRONYMS

SUMMARY

General Model Description

Intended Uses

Accuracy

Accreditations and Supported Studies

Requirements Management and Configuration Control

DISTRIBUTION PROCEDURES

ACRONYMS

AMRDEC Aviation and Missile Research, Development, and Engineering Center

API Application Programming Interface

BMDS Ballistic Missile Defense System

CLM Core Lethality Model

DESL Modeling and Simulation Activity

DRF Distribution Request Form

GMD Ground Based Midcourse Defense

HWIL Hardware-In-the-Loop

IOT&E Initial Operational Test and Evaluation

IV&V Independent Verification and Validation

KIDD Kinetic Impact Debris Distribution

LFT&E Live Fire Test and Evaluation

LRIP Low Rate Initial Production

LUT Limited User Test

MAD Mean Absolute Deviation

MD Mean Deviation

MDA Missile Defense Agency

MEADS Medium Extended Air Defense System

NMD National Missile Defense

OTA Operational Test Authority

PAC-3 Patriot Advanced Capability – 3

PDB-6 Post-Deployment Build – 6

PEELS Parametric Endo/Exoatmospheric Lethality Simulation

PEELSViz PEELS Visualization

SM-2 Standard Missile – 2

SUA Software Utility Agreement

THAAD Terminal High Altitude Area Defense

WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction

SUMMARY

The Parametric Endo/Exoatmospheric Lethality Simulation (PEELS) is a semi-empirical, physically-representative, fast-running computer simulation predictive of the lethality of kinetic energy air and missile defense program elements within the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS).

PEELS reconstructs the end game event to assess the effectiveness of direct hit, blast fragmentation and aligned-rod lethal mechanisms upon a wide variety of missile threats. Under continuous development since 1993, the PEELS product has evolved to reflect the attributes of U.S. air and missile defense systems and the breadth of the assessed threats.

PEELS is designed to predict the lethality of kinetic energy missile defense interceptors in all three defense segments: boost/ascent, midcourse and terminal. The models within PEELS have been developed for applicability to all past, current and future BMDS program elements using kinetic energy lethal mechanisms.

The PEELS product consists of a lethality kernel simulation, an interactive 3-dimensional visualization environment and extensive documentation. PEELS is supported on Microsoft Windows™, Unix and Altix operating systems. Over 170 models of threat assessment and test article designs have been developed to support lethality analyses and test event replication. An extensive set of test and computational data exist to evaluate PEELS performance.

Designated as an MDA Core Lethality Model (CLM), PEELS has been accredited to support acquisition decisions for the Patriot Advanced Capability – 3 (PAC-3), the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Ground-based Missile

Defense (GMD) interceptor systems. PEELS has also supported joint system development and interoperability studies.

The PEELS product development is sponsored and managed by the MDA

Modeling and Simulation activity (MDA/D/ESP).

General Model Description

PEELS is a semi-empirical, physically representative, fast-running computer simulation predictive of kinetic energy lethal mechanism effectiveness against ballistic missile targets. Figure 1 depicts the PEELS environment. Starting with the engagement conditions at the point of closest approach between the interceptor and the target, the analyst chooses the appropriate system model definition and the target definition. PEELS predicts the portion of the target payload that is defeated to established criteria by each lethal mechanism within the interceptor system. Output includes the lethal effectiveness and inputs for any subsequent debris and post-engagement effects analysis. The user is supported by an extensive set of documentation.

Figure 1. PEELS Predicts Kinetic Energy System Point of Engagement

Lethality

Engagement lethality may be predicted against seven (7) types of ballistic missile payloads including conventional and weapon of mass destruction (WMD) warheads. PEELS predicts a deterministic fractional payload defeat for each engagement. These predictions also include the determination of which submunitions survived, their location within the target, and in situ negation percentage for targets with a bulk chemical payload. Assessing multiple potential engagements by statistically varying engagement parameters (provided through the PEELS engagement interface) and interceptor function provides a probability of kill (Pk) for a given set of engagements against a particular threat payload.

PEELS provides accurate lethality estimates in a fast-running environment. Most engagements may be processed within a few seconds, with some taking less than a single second for completion. The product is optimized for installation on

Windows™ XP and later operating systems, but may be used in several Unix environments. A 3-dimensional visualization program and runtime control environment (PEELSViz) is available for Windows users. PEELSViz capabilities include:

Engagement condition development and specification

Analysis management

Engagement animation

Payload defeat status

Data extraction, manipulation and reduction

Graphic and plot generation

The PEELS product is thread-safe, and may be accessed as a service through a comprehensive Application

Programming Interface

(API). Additional interface information is provided in the following sections.

Figure 2: PEELS Product Summary

Intended Uses

PEELS provides users with flexible options to tailor the runtime environment to the requirements of the analysis. Figure 3 depicts the primary intended uses of

PEELS, the use environment and the typical output. PEELS may be used by analysts to assess the sensitivity of lethality results to varying interceptor system concepts, targets, and engagement conditions. These analyses provide the basis for understanding the overall lethality potential of a given system design, and are often conducted prior to design finalization or during product improvement programs. Ground test replication is the cornerstone for product validation. PEELS run options have been developed to replicate the engagements achieved in ground test events described in coordinate systems similar to those of the test facilities and venues.

Several interfaces to system simulations exist. Engagements generated by PAC-

3, THAAD and GMD flight simulations may be imported directly to PEELS through coordinated and verified interfaces. PEELS generates both text and graphical output for analyst review. A comprehensive API, providing PEELS as a service to hardware in the loop (HWIL) and similar digital environments, places lethality simulations in-line for complex system assessment activities. HWIL and similar digital environments use PEELS results as input for subsequent debris scene evaluations. PEELS shares a high fidelity interface to the Kinetic Impact Debris

Distribution (KIDD) program, directly linking an engagement event to a debris scene evaluation.

Additionally, PEELS results can be used as input for subsequent ground consequences analyses. PEELS outputs an ASCII file that can be read into

PEGEM. PEELS, PEGEM and KIDD all have common target models permitting end-to-end analysis from the point-of-intercept to the post-intercept debris scene to the impact on the ground.

Figure 3. PEELS Offers Flexible Run Options for Multiple Types of Lethality Analyses

The breadth of run options and product interfaces optimizes the accessibility to lethality at all phases of a weapon system lifecycle.

PEELS can be run in a multitude of configurations, and can support a wide variety of threats, payload types, and systems. Figure 4 provides a graphical illustration of PEELS utilization and the various components that provide input, calculate predictions, and support post-intercept analyses.

Figure 4. The PEELS architecture was designed for ease of implementation within the various frameworks while maintaining legacy use familiar to long term users.

Accuracy

PEELS is anchored to a comprehensive database of test results and hydrocode/structural code analyses. The validation database has formed the foundation for multiple successful accreditation activities. Both absolute accuracy and the elimination of prediction bias are important to product acceptance, therefore several statistical measures are used to evaluate PEELS’ replication of test events. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Deviation (MD) are two of the accepted statistical methods. MAD provides a measure of absolute accuracy and MD provides a measure of predictive bias:

Where i is the test event number, from one to the total number of tests (n); P i is the PEELS fraction kill prediction for the i th test event and T i is the measured test fraction kill for the ith test event.

Table 1 summarizes the statistical accuracy of PEELS direct hit lethality predictions for terminal defense segment engagements. PEELS is accurate, exhibiting a mean absolute deviation across all tests of less than 15%. PEELS is non-biased, evidenced by a slightly conservative (less than 2.5%) deviation across all tests.

TABLE 1. PEELS TMD DIRECT HIT VALIDATION SUMMARY

MD (%) MAD (%)

All Tests -2.4 14.0

Accreditations and Supported Studies

Major acquisition decisions require accredited simulations for major modeling activities. PEELS has been accredited to support multiple acquisition decisions from 1994 through 2012. Each accreditation program is unique, requiring a review and evaluation focusing on the attributes of the decision event. In most cases PEELS accreditation sponsors have included both the program office responsible for the system development and procurement and the cognizant Operational Test Authority (OTA). To date, PEELS has been accredited for all evaluated events; PEELS has never failed an accreditation review.

PEELS has supported the following systems/elements during system effectiveness analyses in a role that did not require accreditation:

Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) Source Selection Evaluation

ARROW Systems Effectiveness Evaluations

SM-2 Systems Effectiveness Evaluations

Requirements Management and Configuration Control

User requirements drive PEELS model enhancements and modifications.

Requirements are accepted throughout the year, and are prioritized on an annual cycle corresponding with the budget allocation process. Enhancements and modifications supporting the most users or making the largest impact on predictions typically receive the highest prioritization. The development team communicates the status of requirements with requesting users, ensuring users are aware of the development plans and schedule.

All aspects of the PEELS product are centrally configuration managed throughout the development and maintenance life cycles. Configuration builds for each distribution item are explicitly tracked within the configuration management system. These procedures provide confidence in the product and are necessary for successful accreditation decisions.

DISTRIBUTION PROCEDURES

PEELS is distributed as a Government-Furnished tool at no cost to approved recipients. All potential recipients must meet eligibility requirements, including:

An established requirement for the product

Disclosure of intended use and application

(Contractor Organizations Only) A current and valid contract with a U.S.

Defense-Affiliated Organization, Service or Agency

PEELS recipients are not permitted to redistribute the product. MDA authorizes all product distributions and manages all software licenses. The PEELS product is subject to distribution restrictions defined by the Arms Export Control Act.

PEELS product questions, comments and requests may be directed to the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).