Appendix 2 - Agency Supplied Test Statistics and Projections.pdf

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Attached to
Vehicles Emissions Testing
Solicitation number
23-532EPA-DIROF-B-36391
Issued by
Cook County, Illinois

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This document is an appendix to the Scope of Services for a state of Illinois procurement for vehicle emissions testing services. It provides historical test volume data and projections for the northeast Illinois and Metro-East regions, as well as statewide. The data covers initial tests, first retests, subsequent retests, and overall rejections from 2017 to 2022. Projected test volumes are provided for 2023 to 2033, estimating between 2.04 million to 2.14 million annual tests. The document also includes monthly test volume breakdowns and peak day test patterns. This information appears to be supplied by the agency to provide bidders with historical context and forecasts for planning purposes related to the vehicle emissions testing contract.

The document does not contain pricing terms, set asides, or funding details. It focuses solely on providing the agency's test volume statistics and projections to inform the overall procurement process. The related state and local contract opportunity appears to be a closed procurement for vehicle emissions testing services in Illinois, with no option for new vendors to submit bids.

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STATE OF ILLINOIS

SCOPE OF SERVICES APPENDICES

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

State of Illinois IFB Appendix 2

Table 1 Historical Test Volumes – NE Illinois and Metro-East

By Initial Test, First Retest, Subsequent Tests*

NE Illinois 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022** Initial Tests 1,912,507 1,930,622 1,948,305 1,793,215 1,798,164 1,932,081 1st Retest 91,015 79,489 77,177 59,476 55,402 70,680

2nd+ Retests 12,595 9,995 8,963 6,819 6,269 9,042 NE Total Tests 2,016,117 2,020,106 2,034,445 1,859,510 1,859,835 2,011,803

Metro-East 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022** Initial Tests 114,796 116,165 115,678 104,838 106,863 108,436 1st Retest 5,499 4,752 4,480 3,473 3,273 3,469

2nd+ Retests 842 678 572 399 434 511 Metro-East Total

Tests 121,137 121,595 120,730 108,710 110,570 112,416

Total 2,137,254 2,141,701 2,155,175 1,968,220 1,970,405 2,124,219

* Included: Tests that resulted in PASS/FAIL.

* Excluded: Aborts, rejects, voids, trainings, exemptions, appeals, waivers, voluntary tests and audit tests.

** Through 11/17/2022

Table 2 Historical Test Volumes - Illinois

By Initial Test, First Retest, Subsequent Tests (Pass/Fail), and Rejectsb

Illinois Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022*

Initial Testsa 2,027,303 2,046,787 2,063,983 1,898,053 1,905,027 2,040,522

1st Retest 96,514 84,241 81,657 62,949 58,675 74,149

2nd+ Retests 13,437 10,673 9,535 7,218 6,703 9,553

Overall Rejectsb 255,384 234,877 255,008 184,526 203,481 249,876

Total Tests 2,392,638 2,376,578 2,410,183 2,152,746 2,173,886 2,374,100 a = Only tests that resulted in PASS/FAIL are included (including 1st, 2nd and subsequent retests).

b = All reasons a Vehicle is Rejected when Presenting for Testing (i.e. OBD Readiness, Vehicle Not Assigned, etc.)

* Through 11/17/2022

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

State of Illinois IFB Appendix 2

Table 3 Historical Repair Waiver Rates - Illinois

Illinois Total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022*

Total Initial Fails 116,162 107,667 104,572 80,489 75,796 96,985

Total Repair Waiver Applications Received 3,690 4,730 3,721 2,137 1,720 3,150

Repair Waivers Issued 942 598 949 532 370 565

Waiver Rate 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

* Through 11/26/2022

Table 4 Projected Total Test Notifications and Test Volumes in Illinois (2023 – 2033)*

Year Projected Test Notifications Projected Tests*

2023 2,495,000 2,121,000 2024 2,400,000 2,040,000 2025 2,475,000 2,104,000 2026 2,455,000 2,087,000 2027 2,500,000 2,125,000 2028 2,467,000 2,097,000 2029 2,512,000 2,135,000 2030 2,470,000 2,099,000 2031 2,515,000 2,138,000 2032 2,472,000 2,101,000 2033 2,517,000 2,140,000

10-Year Total 27,278,265 23,187,000

*Only Vehicle Tests that result in a Pass/Fail Note: Assume persistence with historical trend of 94.5% of total tests performed in Northeast Illinois and 5.5% of total tests in Metro-East.

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

Table 5

Monthly Test Volumes in 2017 – 2022 by Program Region*

2017 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Month Northeast Illinois Metro-East Northeast Illinois Metro-East

Jan 146,445 8,902 7.3% 7.4% Feb 151,386 10,343 7.5% 8.5% Mar 215,047 14,239 10.7% 11.8% Apr 196,466 11,539 9.7% 9.5% May 197,237 11,484 9.8% 9.5% Jun 195,760 11,575 9.7% 9.6% July 174,458 10,078 8.7% 8.3% Aug 176,680 10,270 8.8% 8.5% Sep 154,204 8,793 7.6% 7.3% Oct 142,531 8,197 7.1% 6.8% Nov 134,465 7,722 6.7% 6.4% Dec 131,438 7,905 6.5% 6.5%

2017 Total 2,016,117 121,047 100% 100%

2018 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Illinois Metro-East

Jan 155,698 9,831 7.7% 8.1% Feb 146,499 10,363 7.3% 8.5% Mar 222,892 14,253 11.0% 11.7% Apr 188,026 11,775 9.3% 9.7% May 189,290 11,132 9.4% 9.2% Jun 189,291 11,147 9.4% 9.2% July 183,934 10,511 9.1% 8.6% Aug 176,227 10,153 8.7% 8.3% Sep 150,465 8,462 7.4% 7.0% Oct 156,551 8,764 7.7% 7.2% Nov 125,025 7,479 6.2% 6.2% Dec 136,208 7,725 6.7% 6.4%

2018 Total 2,020,106 121,595 100% 100%

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

2019 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Illinois Metro-East

Jan 121,233 8,562 6.0% 7.1% Feb 161,569 10,284 7.9% 8.5% Mar 218,491 13,813 10.7% 11.4% Apr 195,181 11,333 9.6% 9.4% May 194,387 11,170 9.6% 9.3% Jun 182,642 10,895 9.0% 9.0% July 190,779 10,939 9.4% 9.1% Aug 185,701 10,481 9.1% 8.7% Sep 156,580 8,813 7.7% 7.3% Oct 153,146 8,530 7.5% 7.1% Nov 130,221 7,360 6.4% 6.1% Dec 144,515 8,492 7.1% 7.0%

2019 Total 2,034,445 120,672 100% 100%

2020 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Illinois Metro-East

Jan 149,939 9,299 8.1% 8.6% Feb 157,632 10,334 8.5% 9.5% Mar 122,051 7,748 6.6% 7.1% Apr 0 0 0.0% 0.0% May 0 0 0.0% 0.0% Jun 261,902 19,455 14.1% 17.9% July 239,573 12,967 12.9% 11.9% Aug 229,574 12,150 12.3% 11.2% Sep 214,022 11,412 11.5% 10.5% Oct 220,896 10,831 11.9% 10.0% Nov 142,568 7,862 7.7% 7.2% Dec 121,352 6,652 6.5% 6.1%

2020 Total 1,859,509 108,710 100% 100%

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

2021 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Illinois Metro-East

Jan 121,004 8,486 6.5% 7.7% Feb 106,053 7,444 5.7% 6.7% Mar 221,469 13,992 11.9% 12.7% Apr 166,960 10,149 9.0% 9.2% May 147,862 8,473 8.0% 7.7% Jun 165,463 10,375 8.9% 9.4% July 155,648 9,332 8.4% 8.4% Aug 169,444 9,209 9.1% 8.3% Sep 153,528 8,319 8.3% 7.5% Oct 157,275 8,706 8.5% 7.9% Nov 150,612 8,082 8.1% 7.3% Dec 144,517 8,003 7.8% 7.2%

2021 Total 1,859,835 110,570 100% 100%

2022 Monthly Total Tests Percent (%) of Yearly Total

Illinois Metro-East

Jan 145,978 8,319 7.1% 7.2% Feb 153,944 8,575 7.5% 7.5% Mar 224,483 13,956 10.9% 12.2% Apr 207,374 12,034 10.1% 10.5% May 213,238 11,817 10.4% 10.3% Jun 215,011 12,097 10.5% 10.5% July 206,534 10,833 10.0% 9.4% Aug 212,088 11,465 10.3% 10.0% Sep 181,011 9,714 8.8% 8.5% Oct 169,799 8,970 8.3% 7.8% Nov 127,948 7,061 6.2% 6.1% Dec 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2022 Totala 2,057,408 114,841 100% 100% a Through 11/29/2022

* Only tests that resulted in PASS/FAIL are included (including 1st, 2nd and subsequent retests).

Note: COVID-19 impacted testing patterns in 2020 and 2021

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

Figure 1a

Figure 1b

6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00

Te st

V ol um es

Hour of Day

Total Test Volumes Pass/Fail/Reject By Hour for Peak Day Network Total Test Counts from February 28, 2018*

* Pre COVID-19

6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00

Te st

V ol

Hour of Day

Total Test Volumes Pass/Fail/Reject By Hour for Peak Day Network Total Test Counts from May 31, 2022*

* Highest Volume Day in Current Program History

APPENDIX 2 – AGENCY SUPPLIED TEST STATISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

Figure 2

* Includes: Pass/Fail/Reject.

* Excluded: Aborts, voids, trainings, appeals, waivers, voluntary tests, reject for vehicle not assigned, and audit tests.

* This month represent the highest test volume month of the current program.

10000

12000

14000

1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 31

Te st

V ol

Day of Month

Total Test Volumes By Day for Peak Month Network Total Daily Test Counts from March 2018*

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