Q_2_._Hunden_Executive_Summary_(Clay_County)_(002)_(002).pdf

Clay County Waterpark Resort & Sports Complex

Market Demand, Financial

Feasibility & Impact Study

F I N A L R E P O R T

M A Y 2 0 2 4

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Hunden Qualifications

Hunden Partners is a full-service global real estate development advisory practice, providing public and private sector clients with confidence and results so they can move their projects from concept through execution. With more than 28 years of experience on over 1,000 projects, Mr. Hunden and his team are relied-upon guides and advisors that provide owner’s representation services, project management and strategy, and the individual components of the process: feasibility and financing studies, impact analysis, governance/management structures, deal negotiation and team-assembly — managing RFQ/P processes for developers, architects, construction, management companies and service providers.

Hunden Partners professionals have provided all the above services for hundreds of client projects worldwide for the public, non-profit and private sectors. In addition, our professionals have prior professional career experience in municipal and state government, economic and real estate development, real estate law, hotel operations, and non-profit management. Over eighty percent of our clients are public entities, such as municipalities, counties, states, convention bureaus, authorities and other quasi-government entities empowered to conduct real estate, economic development, and tourism activities.

Study Assumptions & Conditions

This deliverable has been prepared under the following general assumptions and limiting conditions:

▪ The findings presented herein reflect analysis of primary and secondary sources of information assumed to be correct. Hunden utilized sources deemed to be reliable but cannot guarantee accuracy.

▪ No responsibility is taken for changes in market conditions after the date of this report and no obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect events or conditions occurring thereafter.

▪ Hunden has no control over construction costs or timing of construction and opening.

▪ Macroeconomic events affecting travel and the economy cannot be predicted and may impact the development and performance of the project.

We have enjoyed serving you on this engagement and look forward to providing you with continuing service.

Executive Summary

Study Methodology Major Study

Discoveries

Key Takeaways &

Implications for

Clay County

Recommendations Next Steps

Executive Summary

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Project Introduction: Water Park Resort & Sports Complex

Clay County (Client) engaged Hunden Partners to complete a market and financial feasibility study to determine the viability, financial gap and fiscal impacts of a new indoor/outdoor waterpark and resort, as well as the future expansion of the Clay County Regional Sports

Complex. The foundation of the study includes a market demand, financial feasibility and economic impact study to determine the viability of a destination resort and waterpark in Clay County and an expanded regional sports complex. These efforts will determine the current and future unmet demand for each market, as well as assist the County and key stakeholders to determine the pros and cons to building these facilities adjacent to one another.

Hunden has studied similar projects in the past and brings an understanding of how similar developments have worked in other areas, the incentives provided, and deals of this nature are structured. The study outcome will provide data analytics to support the County in determining any incentives to offer, as well as provide overall support for negotiations with possible owners/operators.

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Where are you now?

Executive Summary Study Methodology & Key Questions

What is the market?

How do you stack up?

What are the opportunities?

How do we get there?

Current Clay County & Surrounding Market Assessment

Market Opportunities Assessment & Future Recommendations

Financial Performance, Economic & Fiscal Impact Projections

With consideration of existing plans and county goals, Hunden analyzed the current performance of local and regional hospitality, tourism and sports assets to identify gaps in the market to be addressed by a destination resort and waterpark and an expanded Clay County

Sports Complex.

Based on local and regional market research, comparable national case studies, and stakeholder engagement, Hunden formed recommendations and implications as it relates to an expanded

Clay County Sports Complex and a destination waterpark resort.

The Hunden team has prepared a financial analysis, economic and fiscal impact projections for the proposed components. Based on financial feasibility and economic/fiscal impacts, funding methods will be analyzed for Project execution.

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Local and Regional Market Engagement

In addition to meeting with local stakeholders during the in-person kickoff, Hunden interviewed several local and regional groups throughout the market research process.

Interview feedback provided further understanding of the waterpark/resort, youth sports, and meeting/event industry on top of Hunden’s data-driven analyses. The following groups and organizations were interviewed to help identify market opportunities.

Local Groups Regional / National Groups

▪ Reinhold Corporation

▪ Visit Clay County

▪ Airstream Ventures

▪ St. Johns County VCB

▪ Visit Jacksonville

▪ Visit Gainesville

▪ Florida Sports Foundation

▪ Great Wolf Lodge

▪ Kalahari Resorts

▪ UFFL

▪ 3Step Sports

▪ Sports Facilities Companies

▪ Grand Park Management

▪ Alachua County Sports & Event Center

▪ ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex

▪ USSSA Florida

▪ USA Volleyball

▪ TNBA (AAU)

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Study Discovery:

Major Market Growth & Opportunities

The First Coast Expressway expansion will create many opportunities for Clay County, especially as it relates to a potential family-oriented waterpark resort and the regional sports complex.

The expansion goes through many large privately-owned land tracts, several of which are planned for residential and commercial development to capitalize on the accessibility.

From a greater Jacksonville perspective, most of the recent growth has occurred on the southern side of the MSA. The following key points highlight the southern Jacksonville MSA market as a whole:

▪ St. Johns County, which is directly to the east of Clay County across the St. Johns River, has experienced and continues to experience robust growth.

▪ Clay County has tracked slightly behind St. Johns County in terms of growth. However, in the context of the greater Jacksonville MSA, it is still one of the fastest growing areas with the most development opportunity in the future.

Clay County

Regional

Sports

Complex

First Coast Expressway

Expansion Map

Clay County

Fairgrounds

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In this report, Hunden examines the family/waterpark resort market. Considering the geographic nature of Florida, the region offers a robust waterpark resort market, notably from major brands like Disney World and Universal Studios. Successful waterpark resorts, especially those in

Florida, typically require the support of a recognized brand to ensure profitability.

Family-oriented waterpark resorts are a highly niche market with a unique business model. Few companies inhabit this subsegment of the hospitality ecosystem, such as Great Wolf Lodge, Kalahari, and Gaylord. Great Wolf Lodge (GWL) is one of the only major companies within this subsegment with a strong national presence and many active projects. Therefore, Hunden utilized GWL as a case study framework throughout this report to assess the industry, given that it is recognized as one of the leading standalone family waterpark resorts in the US. The goal of this report is to remain brand agnostic while utilizing existing relevant projects to offer insight into the intricacies of family-oriented waterpark resorts and the incentives required to attract these types of developments.

Known for its destination experience, family/waterpark resorts include an array of on-site offerings such as an expansive indoor/outdoor waterpark, family entertainment offerings, meeting space, food and beverage and retail outlets, and a variety of accommodations all designed to serve families with children. Family waterpark resorts that are backed by a recognized brand generate stronger occupancies and rates compared to traditional hotels.

These resorts also supply high paying jobs compared to the overall hotel market due to their wide spectrum of jobs offered.

Family / Waterpark Resort Market Analysis

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Study Discovery: Clay County Sports Complex Expansion

Outdoor Sports Opportunity

There is a substantial need for outdoor soccer fields in the

County and across the Jacksonville MSA. The eight grass fields delivered in Phase I are a strong entrance to the market;

however, to be a strong sports tourism driver for the county the introduction of more fields that are artificial turf and multipurpose is a must.

Indoor Sports Opportunity

There is a strong demand for indoor multipurpose court space for basketball, volleyball, wrestling, dance/cheer and other niche sports. There are several active and planned indoor sports complexes regionally that, if developed, may diminish the opportunity slightly. However, Hunden asserts the opportunity in Clay County is strong.

Hunden’s analysis assessed both the indoor and outdoor sports opportunity in Clay County. Based on Hunden’s thorough analysis of the local and regional market, conversations with teams, tournament operators, and national groups, the following opportunities were identified:

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Hotel Waterpark &

Resort

Conference &

Meeting Space

Field

Sports

Diamond

Sports

Indoor

Sports

Supply Minimal None Minimal Moderate Good

Moderate -

Good (Several projects in process)

Demand Strong Contingent

Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong

Future

Opportunity Contingent

Study Discovery:

Market Supply and Demand Analysis

Hunden’s assessment analyzed two major segments to understand the market and overall opportunity, the hotel and resort segment and the youth and amateur sports segment. Both were assessed separately, however, are intertwined and related in many ways. The table below outlines a summary of the supply and demand analysis for the segments analyzed and the resulting opportunity which served as a basis for our recommendations.

Contingency: One of the major factors for the waterpark & family resort market demand and opportunity level will be the opening of the Great Wolf Lodge (GWL) in Naples in Fall of 2024.

Strong opportunity to create an outdoor sports destination supported by several hotels, including the possibility of an anchoring family-destination waterpark resort

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Recommendations: Clay County Sports Complex

Phase I

(Completed - 2024)

Phase II (1-5 Years)

Total

Buildout

Outdoor

Facilities

Grass Soccer Fields

Multipurpose Artificial

Turf Fields

12 Fields 8 Grass

4 Artificial Turf

Field

Playing Surface

Detail

4 Full-Sized

Multisport/Soccer

6 Diamonds

8 Grass

4 Artificial Turf Multisport

6 Artificial Turf Diamonds

Indoor

Facilities

Indoor Basketball

Courts (16 Volleyball)

Indoor Basketball

Courts (16 Volleyball)

Additional

Sports Assets

Outdoor Cross-Country

Course

(NCAA Regulation)

Phase I of the Clay County Regional Sports Complex was completed in early 2024 and includes eight full-sized, grass soccer fields. Hunden’s recommendations build on this and focus intently on sports-tourism driven assets. Community assets such as park space and tennis/pickleball courts are of less a focus within the recommendations, although improvements to these facilities can be included to elevate the overall park. Phase I

Phase II Outdoor

Phase II Indoor

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Waterpark Resort Steps Forward

3 4

Cannibalization

Incentive

Package

Site

Other Destination

Resorts

The opportunity for a new waterpark resort development in

Clay County is somewhat contingent on the captured market of the GWL Naples property that is planned to open in fall of this year, which is expected to primarily capture a

4-hour drive radius. Although a major market entrant in the industry, there will be an opportunity in Clay County for a similar waterpark resort concept. Notably, traditional hotel development will not impact the market potential of a waterpark resort.

The estimated incentive package for a waterpark resort project in Clay County would be approximately $45 - $50 million in present value dollars.

A waterpark resort brand does not have to be collocated with the Clay County Sports

Complex. There is not a strong synergy between the two and the county should view both assets as elevating the family destination image of the county, rather than a dual complex that relies on each other.

Alternatives to waterpark resort brands are few and far between. If a waterpark resort does not come to fruition, a strong secondary option includes a large select-service plus conference hotel given that Clay County currently lacks hotel and meeting supply.

The following factors must be considered related to attracting a destination waterpark resort brand to Clay County.

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Economic Impact

Hunden projected the 30-Year economic, fiscal and employment impact for both the waterpark resort and an expanded Clay County Sports Complex.

Hunden estimates that the waterpark resort will generate $7.7 billion in net new spending, $3.8 billion in net new earnings, 1,500 FTE jobs and $216 million in local taxes in the economy over a 30-year timespan.

Moreover, the expanded Clay County Sports Complex has the potential to generate an estimated $2.8 billion in net new spending, $1.2 billion in new earnings, 832 FTE jobs and $38.4 million in local taxes.

Construction impacts for both potential projects are provided in later chapters of this report.

30-Yr. Summary of Impacts

Net New Spending (millions) (millions)

Direct $4,378 $1,750

Indirect $1,663 $689

Induced $1,634 $391

Total $7,675 $2,830

Net New Earnings (millions) (millions)

From Direct $1,433 $823

From Indirect $1,263 $236

From Induced $1,086 $156

Total $3,782 $1,215

Net New FTE Jobs Actual Actual

From Direct 857 505

From Indirect 325 209

From Induced 318 117

Total 1,500 832

Tax Generation (millions) (millions)

Sales Tax - County (1.5%) $115.2 $26.3

Tourism Development Tax - County (5.0%) $65.7 $12.1

Property Tax $34.7 -

Total $215.6 $38.4

Source: Hunden Partners

Sports Complex Great Wolf Lodge Waterpark Resort

Hunden Partners is a full-service real estate development advisory practice specializing in destination assets.

With professionals in Chicago, Dallas, New York, and

Minneapolis, Hunden provides a variety of services for all stages of destination development in:

The firm and its principal have performed more than 1,000 studies over the past 28 years, with more than $20 billion in built, successful projects.

▪ Real Estate Market & Financial Feasibility

▪ Economic, Fiscal & Employment Impact Analysis

(Cost/Benefit)

▪ Organizational Development

▪ Public Incentive Analysis

▪ Economic and Tourism Policy/Legislation Consulting

▪ Research & Statistical Analysis

▪ Developer Solicitation & Selection

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