CHIP_T_Dental_Caseload_Cost_by_SDA_SFY2018_SFY2027_v.xlsx

This file is a caseload and cost projection spreadsheet for the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) Dental Services, tracking enrollment and expenditures across multiple Service Delivery Areas (SDAs) from September 2017 through August 2027. The spreadsheet provides monthly enrollment data segmented by plan type (HMO and EPO) and geographic regions including Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Harris, Jefferson, Lubbock, Nueces, Tarrant, Travis, and RSA (Rural Service Area). The data includes both actual historical enrollment figures through November 2024 and forecasted projections beginning in December 2024, enabling the state to plan for future dental services capacity and resource allocation.

The accompanying cost analysis reveals dental services expenditures calculated on a per-member-per-month (PMPM) basis, with fiscal year summaries showing total program costs ranging from a low of $15.1 million in FY 2023 to projected costs of $77.1 million in FY 2027. The PMPM rates remain relatively stable, ranging from $21.70 to $24.67 across the fiscal years analyzed. Historical data indicates significant enrollment volatility, with CHIP Traditional caseloads declining sharply from approximately 410,000 members in FY 2018 to 53,600 members in FY 2023, followed by recovery to projected enrollment of 264,500 members by FY 2027. The forecasting data, prepared by HHSC CFO Forecasting in August 2025, supports budget planning and rate-setting for the state's dental benefit administration across all SDAs.