Attachment_J.4_Annex 3_Climate Change_CRM.pdf

Attachment_J.4_Annex 3_Climat Change_Climate Risk Mitigation

PROCUREMENT SENSITIVE

Climate Risk Mitigation and Climate Risk Management (CRM)

TO THE STATEMENT OF OBJECTIVES (SOO) FOR THE INCREASING PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT IN

WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES (WCIS) IN SENEGAL ACTIVITY

I. Requirements to the Offerors

I. CLIMATE RISK

Climate risk management (CRM) is required for all USAID-supported activities as per ADS 201mal and more recently, ADS max. Climate risk is the potential for negative consequences on activity objectives and/or outcomes due to changing weather and climatic conditions. The focus of climate risk management at USAID is on the risk to USAID development programming. The CRM process may also identify potential development opportunities associated with current and expected climatic and meteorological changes, including chances to achieve additional development objectives: increasing climate resilience and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Further guidance can be found on USAID’s Climate Risk Management website {https://www.climatelinks.org/integration/climate-risk-management}

In 2017, USAID/Senegal completed a climate risk analysis to evaluate the potential climate risks to its development objectives at the Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) and Development Objectives (DO) levels. An initial climate risk screening of the WCIS activity was conducted as part of the Programmatic Initial Environmental Examination (PIEE) covering this Activity. After the screening, USAID/Senegal also considered the integration of climate risk management (CRM) into this solicitation of an individual activity as per ADS 303.1 and ADS 303.2. A further screening will be required and requested upon award. The purpose of the screening is to ensure consideration of climate risk at the activity level, given the detailed activities, geographies, objectives and outcomes.

It is noted that the Activity itself is designed to address climate change related risks and vulnerabilities in farming, livestock raising and pastoralism, fisheries, and hydro-meteorological services. It will also come as a part of the Mission’s contribution to realizing the Agency Adaptation Target under its Climate Change Strategy (2022 - 2030).

The Activity builds on a number of vulnerability assessments conducted under its predecessor, others led by Feed the Future activities such as those for the development and financing of the Fisheries National Adaptation Plan, and the USAID-led Climate Vulnerability Assessment of the Agriculture sector in Senegal (2014). Few Risks are identified in the climate risk screening of the WCIS activity, of which some are rated “low” and/or “moderate” risks to the goals and sustainability of Activity interventions.

With more than 2/3 of the population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood and nearly half of the population living in poverty, Senegal is among the most vulnerable countries to climatic hazards.

Indeed, according to experts, climate change in Senegal will be manifested by a decrease in the annual amounts of precipitation, an increased frequency of severe rainfall events, an increase in the dry periods and a rise in temperatures and sea levels. Average annual temperature has increased by 0.9º Celsius since 1975 and is projected to rise by 1.1 to 3.1º by 2060 and no cool nights by 2090, https://www.climatelinks.org/integration/climate-risk-management https://www.climatelinks.org/integration/climate-risk-management https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y83n07bINopolsO8b52aMjPewFg-wcIj/view?usp=sharing

Attachment_J.4_Annex 4_Climat Change_Climate Risk Mitigation which would amplify the effects of drought. Recent rainfall levels are already 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average, reflecting only a partial recovery from the severe drought of the mid-1990s.

Prolonged drought between 1970 and 2000 contributed to rural-urban migration and today approximately three quarters of urban residents reside in unplanned settlements.

II. CLIMATE RISK MITIGATION

Climate Risk Screening and Management Tool for Project Design

Project CRM Tool Output Matrix: Climate Risks, Opportunities, and actions

Country Context

Climate Projections and Impacts

In Senegal, GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions are mostly driven by the agriculture and energy sectors with a need to continue to resolutely revamp the energy mix. Like most of Africa, Senegal is a particularly vulnerable country to climatic hazards. Climate tends to exacerbate vulnerability (more than 2/3rd of the population depend on rain-fed agriculture) where livelihoods are already under substantial non-climate stressors (half of the population living in poverty, significant disparities in access to healthcare, nutritional status of the population marked by uneven consumption of diverse, safe and nutritious food for women of reproductive age and children under two years of age, the need to accelerate market-driven and equitable access to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) products and services, etc.). According to experts, the impacts of climate change in Senegal include an expected decrease in the annual amounts of precipitation, an increased frequency of the severe rainfall events, an increase in the dry periods and a rise in temperatures and sea levels.

--Temperatures in Africa have risen faster than the global average --Increases in hot extremes, including heatwaves, projected to continue --Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and are projected to increase --Relative sea level rise has increased faster than the global average --Heavy precipitation events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa

--Increases in river flooding --Increases in agricultural and meteorological droughts --Increases in average wind speeds --Increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding --Decreases in some agricultural crop productivity

--Increases in monsoon precipitation in Central Sahel -- Decreases in monsoon precipitation in far Western Sahel --Delayed seasonal monsoon onset and delayed monsoon retreat

Desertification https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-risk-screening-and-management-tools https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zez6HYM2jW9bM3_9SsQdoW6s56p8joyA/edit

--Shifts in vector-borne diseases --Wetting and greening conditions over the last three decades

Average annual temperature in Senegal, has increased by 0.9º Celsius since 1975 and is projected to rise by 1.1 to 3.1º by 2060 and no cool nights by 2090, which would amplify the effects of drought.

Recent rainfall levels are already 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average, reflecting only a partial recovery from the severe drought of the mid-1990s. Prolonged drought between 1970 and 2000 contributed to rural-urban migration and today approximately three quarters of urban residents reside in unplanned settlements.

The UNFCCC 6th Assessment IPCC_AR6_WGII_Summary For Policymakers points to climate change impacts and risks becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in new risks, compounding overall risk, and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Food security (crop loss or failure, heat-stressed livestock productivity, etc), water security and energy security due to drought and heat, and health/nutrition/wash are particularly subject to those emerging cascading effects. Food prices are projected to rise by 2080-2099 across all African countries under a scenario with high challenges to mitigation and adaptation (SSP3 and RCP8.5), In Eastern Senegal, some crops are already harvested at their threshold level. Change in suitable areas for crops is projected.

Country Commitments

The Government of Senegal (GOS) submitted an Intended Nationally-Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC Secretariat in September 2015, in advance of the Paris Summit. Pursuant to the INDC, Senegal undertook, as an unconditional commitment, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below “business as usual” by 3 percent in 2020, 4 percent in 2025, and 5 percent in 2030. By “business as usual,” the Government of Senegal meant emissions without mitigation measures. Both the INDC and the subsequent Nationally-Determined Contribution (NDC) continue to contemplate net increases in emissions for the foreseeable future. The INDC added as a “conditional” commitment that these reductions below business as usual could be increased to 7, 15, and 21 percent, respectively, if Senegal received sufficient and timely international finance, transfer of technology, and capacity-building assistance. The INDC took a sector-specific approach, identifying specific projects the GOS wished to undertake in energy, agriculture/forestry, industry/transportation, and management of waste that the GOS estimated would result in the desired emissions reductions. Senegal’s INDC can be found here:

https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Senegal/1/CPDN%20- %20S%C3%A9n%C3%A9gal.pdf

Senegal’s Ambitions and Opportunities for Adaptation https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww4.unfccc.int%2Fsites%2Fsubmissions%2FINDC%2FPublished%2520Documents%2FSenegal%2F1%2FCPDN%2520-%2520S%25C3%25A9n%25C3%25A9gal.pdf&data=04%7C01%7CRoyCE%40state.gov%7C6aef1d18da0c44118fbd08d900b95647%7C66cf50745afe48d1a691a12b2121f44b%7C0%7C0%7C637541618303602882%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=G%2Fdu4Mwp%2BPcra4VZoPAUmXTj3u6APnbMP5NfzT%2BPk9w%3D&reserved=0 https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww4.unfccc.int%2Fsites%2Fsubmissions%2FINDC%2FPublished%2520Documents%2FSenegal%2F1%2FCPDN%2520-%2520S%25C3%25A9n%25C3%25A9gal.pdf&data=04%7C01%7CRoyCE%40state.gov%7C6aef1d18da0c44118fbd08d900b95647%7C66cf50745afe48d1a691a12b2121f44b%7C0%7C0%7C637541618303602882%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=G%2Fdu4Mwp%2BPcra4VZoPAUmXTj3u6APnbMP5NfzT%2BPk9w%3D&reserved=0

Senegal’s Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDC) submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in December 2020, includes a National Adaptation Plan (NAP). The NAP takes a sector-focused approach. In addition to the NAP, some ministries have developed sectoral adaptation plans.

● Agriculture (e.g. reclamation of salinized lands; development of drought-resistant agriculture;

early-warning systems; integrated agroforestry; promotion of crop insurance)

● Livestock (e.g. animal genetics and health programs; early warning systems; promotion of insurance; capacity building for pastoralists; etc.)

● Fishing (e.g. sustainable fisheries management; increase/improve management of protected areas; restoration of mangroves; promotion of aquaculture; etc.)

● Coastal Protection (e.g. identification and better management of coastal erosion risk zones;

improving data and modeling; coastal development regulation; etc.)

● Water Management (e.g. construction of reservoirs; desalinization projects; integrated resource management techniques; etc.)

● Biodiversity (strengthening science/research-based approach to habitat management;

strengthening ecosystem management)

● Health (e.g. strengthening integrated epidemiological surveillance; strengthening anti-vector programs; etc.)

● Disaster and Flood Risk Management (e.g. putting in place a National Flood Risk Management Plan; strengthening zoning and urban landscape management; developing flood control and water management infrastructure; etc.)

Some local municipalities and other stakeholders along the coast have developed local and regional adaptation plans focused on the fisheries sector.

Senegal Ambitions and Opportunities for Mitigation

The NDC maintains the INDC’s sector-based approach, identifying specific projects the GOS seeks to implement, which it believes will have the stated emissions-reducing effects. The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MESD) emphasizes these projects are aligned with the “Plan Senegal Emergent,” the country's multi-year economic development plan, the main goal of which is to boost GDP growth and achieve “emerging economy” status by 2035. Representative projects include:

● Energy: Transformation of the electricity sector from current dominant Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)/diesel generation to a cleaner, more diverse energy mix, including natural gas;

Increasing renewable energy generation capacity from the current 20 percent to 30 percent or more of installed capacity; Achieving specified goals to increase energy efficiency such as solar market business development..

● Industry/Transportation: Implementing mass transit projects, including a World Bank-supported Bus Rapid Transit system in Dakar and the Train Express Regional commuter rail;

Implementing a project to replace aging bus and taxi fleets with hybrid and clean-fuel vehicles; Transformation of the industrial sector (including cement manufacturing) to use natural gas.

● Waste Management: Closure of existing open-air waste disposal sites by 2030; Development of modern regional waste management sites.

● Agriculture/Forestry: Implementing Assisted Natural Regeneration (ANR) projects in various agriculture areas throughout the country; Implement projects to increase access to irrigation systems and reduce methane emissions for rice cultivation in Senegal’s northern zone; Protect an additional 500,000 hectares of forests; Implement reforestation projects to restore 4,000 hectares of mangroves.

Senegal’s NDC (French only) can be found here:

https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Senegal%20First/CDNSenegal%20ap prouv%C3%A9e-pdf-.pdf

Climate Risk Screening and Results

Climate variability and change present few risks to the successful achievement of the WCIS Activity objectives. This activity constitutes in itself a major climate risk management response and resilience building endeavor. It is premised on vulnerability assessments and user needs assessments conducted in different sectors, with particular attention to hydro-meteorological services and early warning systems for flood control. The intent is to: a) build the capacity of relevant partner Government of Senegal entities with a mandate to produce diversified, tailored and spatially explicit WCIS, including the capacity to build an early warning system for flood control and drought forecast;

and b)support the Senegalese private sector actors to gain access to increased capital, finance, and market linkages to develop, test and bring to scale WCIS dissemination platforms. As a result, Government entities and the private sector will have developed and operationalized sustainable public private partnerships. The awardees will be better equipped for handling larger financial and program responsibilities or direct awards and the activities will leverage broad support to ANACIM for the upstream production of observation data and information.) Ultimately, the activity will achieve success through the end-Users’ enhanced ability to translate information into actionable decisions, and gain a rewarding experience rendering customer satisfaction effective. In so doing, the implementing partner (IP) is mostly needed at the table to facilitate and help reduce risk posed by the competition from public business models, which is the main risk facing private sector actors. The IP will help jumpstart the most promising business models and equip private sector actors with additional bandwidth to outperform the competition.

The prime contractor will be required to facilitate and broker engagement between public and private actors of the value chain, and provide financial, technical, brokerage and marketing, and other forms of support toward successful engagement.

The most significant climate risks to the achievement of the objectives of the activity will include, but are not limited to:

1. Inability to conduct field activities necessary to engage with relevant Government entities and lead activities such as such as training, coaching, provision of business skills, building of negotiation skills with the private sector, demonstrations, etc.

2. Inability to facilitate continued engagement between government and private sector partners and provide mentoring, technical skills, brokerage services, etc.

https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww4.unfccc.int%2Fsites%2Fndcstaging%2FPublishedDocuments%2FSenegal%2520First%2FCDNSenegal%2520approuv%25C3%25A9e-pdf-.pdf&data=04%7C01%7CRoyCE%40state.gov%7C6aef1d18da0c44118fbd08d900b95647%7C66cf50745afe48d1a691a12b2121f44b%7C0%7C0%7C637541618303612837%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=X2OFrM0WXFyTk9Zw4TiBsZBIFlJlQ%2BjcEhNfasoXM78%3D&reserved=0 https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww4.unfccc.int%2Fsites%2Fndcstaging%2FPublishedDocuments%2FSenegal%2520First%2FCDNSenegal%2520approuv%25C3%25A9e-pdf-.pdf&data=04%7C01%7CRoyCE%40state.gov%7C6aef1d18da0c44118fbd08d900b95647%7C66cf50745afe48d1a691a12b2121f44b%7C0%7C0%7C637541618303612837%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=X2OFrM0WXFyTk9Zw4TiBsZBIFlJlQ%2BjcEhNfasoXM78%3D&reserved=0

3. Inability to support and strengthen the enabling policy and reform environment to secure the engagement.

4. Inability to achieve end-user satisfaction and long-term patronizing.

Opportunities to strengthen resilience

This activity provides for a major opportunity to strengthen the resilience of farmers, livestock breeders and pastoralists, and fishermen, and improve the modeling of hydro-meteorological services and early warning systems for flood control.

However, it will need buy-in from the relevant Government entities with a role or mandate to produceWCIS and improve decision-making in the face of climate trends and increased variability.

Buy-in from private sector actors with a stake in the development of the WCIS value chain is another pre-condition. Ultimately, end-users will use WCIS only if their experience proves rewarding and customers are satisfied with the local relevance and translation of information into actionable decisions.

USAID New Climate Change Strategy and Senegal Mission Planning

Responding to the climate crisis represents an economic, technological, ecological, and socio-political opportunity for countries to transition into societies with greater equality, well-being, and sustained prosperity for all. Addressing the climate crisis requires a holistic approach to development. Building off of its previous 2012-2018 Climate Change and Development Strategy, USAID strategy released a new Climate Change Strategy (2022 - 2030) in April of this year. This Strategy takes an unprecedented whole-of-Agency approach. At the center of the new Strategy are ambitious targets that USAID aims to achieve by 2030, including:

•Mitigation: support activities that reduce, avoid, or sequester six billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

•Natural and Managed Ecosystems: support the conservation, restoration, or management of 100 million hectares with a climate change mitigation benefit.

•Adaptation: enable the improved climate resilience of 500 million people.

•Finance: mobilize $150 billion in public and private finance for climate.

•Country Support: align our support with countries’ mitigation and adaptation commitments in at least 80 countries by 2024, and support partners to achieve systemic changes toward meeting those commitments in at least 40 countries.

•Critical Populations: support our partners to achieve systemic changes that increase meaningful participation and active leadership in climate action of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, women, youth, and other marginalized and/or underrepresented groups in at least 40 partner countries.

Five foundational principles will be embedded into all actions taken under the Strategy:

● Locally Led Development

● Equity and Inclusion

● Private-Sector Engagement

● Nature-Based Solutions

● Evidence, Technology, and Innovation

Requirements to IPs

As the Mission strives to contribute to supporting the Agency’s efforts to achieve the high-level Climate Targets, discussion of the climate change indicators with the implementing partner will be tracked; the type of climate and non-climate funding to be employed (e.g., sustainable landscape direct, adaptation indirect/food security, water, governance, education, health) will be determined; and additional support to or requirements of the Mission’s Implementing Partners, such as updates to annual Work Plans, Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Plans (AMELPs), new assigned indicators will be updated.

The Mission may also require additional technical expertise or systems analysis, monitoring and reporting, etc. from the IP. to fulfill its contractual requirements under the Strategy and this solicitation.

A detailed initial analysis of potential climate risks to the activity objectives must be submitted within 45 days and the analysis shall inform the Work Plan and AMELP, once interventions and activities have been detailed beyond the stated objectives. The analysis must include the methodology for a more comprehensive activity wide vulnerability assessment.

● The resulting deliverable will be a Climate Risk Management Plan (CRMP) for the Life-of- Project in Year 1 of implementation once the details of interventions or activities are known.

● In subsequent years, the IP will ensure that activities are reevaluated, updated and mainstreamed into the annual Work plans to achieve the objectives of the Strategy and Mission.

Climate Change Screening Matrix

Activity-Level Climate Risk Management Summary Table

In order to document the climate risk management process and its results, the below table must be completed and included in the Environmental Compliance Analysis (e.g. Request for Categorical Exclusion (RCE). Results of the initial activity-level screening should be incorporated into the proposal.

See “Climate Risk Management for USAID Projects and Activities” in https://www.climatelinks.org/ for more information.

Climate Risk Management Matrix and Illustrative Risks and Opportunities to Strengthen Climate Resilience

Objectives (Tasks / Defined or Illustrative Interventions once known)

Climate Risks

Risk Rating Low / Moderate / High

How Risks are Addressed

Opportunities to Strengthen Climate Resilience

Objective 1: Bolster ANACIM's engagement with public and private sector actors and institutions to develop public-private partnerships.

Inability to conduct field activities necessary to engage with relevant Government entities and lead activities such as training, coaching, provision of business skills, building of negotiation skills with the private sector, demonstrations, etc.

Moderate to high

If mobility is an issue due to damaged roads and if infrastructure is damaged, leverage technology and hold meetings/training/supervi sion virtually when in-person is not an option.

Provide data credit for phones or hot-spot Wi-Fi devices for stakeholders and deconcentrated services in areas with poor connectivity.

● Incorporate climate considerations in standard activity assessments and evaluations, as well as preventive and mitigation actions in implementation.

● Integrate early-warning systems when planning for activities

Major events or extreme disasters

Moderate to High

If mobility is an issue due to damaged roads and if https://www.climatelinks.org/

(heat waves, heavy rains, flooding, coastal inundation, drought, swell, sea storms, etc) in Senegal damage infrastructure and roads, restricting the mobility of people and goods and putting lives at risk

Major events or extreme disasters (heat waves, heavy rains, flooding, coastal inundation, drought swell, sea storms, etc) damage utility infrastructure, causing electricity or internet connectivity to no longer work, preventing virtual communication and meetings.

infrastructure is damaged, leverage technology and hold meetings/training/supervi sion virtually when in-person is not an option.

Provide data credit for phones or hot-spot Wi-Fi devices for stakeholders and deconcentrated services in areas with poor connectivity.

● Adopt existing Weather and Climate Information Services

(WCIS)

● Incorporate the above in regular training of actors.

Objective 2: Scale up public and private investment in the development of the WCIS value chain that fosters increased demand for improved WCIS that are effectively used.

Inability to facilitate continued engagement between government and private sector partners and provide mentoring, technical skills, brokerage services, etc.

Moderate to high

● Incorporate climate considerations in standard activity assessments and evaluations, as well as preventive and

Major events or extreme disasters (heat waves, heavy rains, flooding, coastal inundation, drought, swell, sea storms, etc) in Senegal damage infrastructure and roads, restricting the mobility of people and goods and putting lives at risk

Major events or extreme disasters (heat waves, heavy rains, flooding, coastal inundation, drought swell, sea storms, etc) damage utility infrastructure, causing electricity or internet connectivity to no longer work, preventing virtual communication and meetings.

mitigation actions in implementation.

● Integrate early-warning systems when planning for activities

● Adopt existing Weather and Climate Information Services

(WCIS)

● Incorporate the above in regular training of actors.

Objective 3: Expand the enabling conditions and respond to the need to integrate climate change and WCIS in the Nutrition and Water Resources Management sectors.

Inability to support and strengthen the enabling policy and reform environment to secure the engagement.

Low No action required