Attachment 1. b Western Honduras VA_ENGLISH_FINAL.pdf

VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO

CLIMATE CHANGE IN WESTERN

HONDURAS

AUGUST 2014

This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the sole responsibility of Tetra Tech ARD and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. Government.

Contributors to this report: John Parker (Team Leader), Kelly Miller (Deputy Chief of Party), Luis A.

Caballero Bonilla, Ph.D. (Eco-Hydrology Specialist), Rosa M. Escolan (Livelihoods Specialist), Edas Muñoz

(Protected Areas Specialist), Alfonso del Rio (Phenology Specialist), Roberto Banegas (Value Chains

Specialist), Olman O. Rivera (Watershed Management Specialist), and Anton Seimon, Ph.D. (Climate

Specialist).

Cover Photo: Hillside maize production, Candelaria, Lempira. Photo by J. Parker, July 2012.

This publication was produced for the United States Agency for International Development by Tetra

Tech ARD, through a Task Order under the Prosperity, Livelihoods, and Conserving Ecosystems

(PLACE) Indefinite Quantity Contract Core Task Order (USAID Contract No. AID-EPP-I-00-06-00008, Order Number AID-OAA-TO-11-00064).

Tetra Tech ARD Contacts:

Patricia Caffrey

Chief of Party

African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC)

Burlington, Vermont

Tel.: 802.658.3890

Patricia.Caffrey@tetratech.com

Anna Farmer

Project Manager

Burlington, Vermont

Tel.: 802-658-3890

Anna.Farmer@tetratech.com

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras i

VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE

TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN

WESTERN HONDURAS

AFRICAN AND LATIN AMERICAN RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (ARCC)

AUGUST 2014

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. v

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES

2.0 THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT FINDINGS

2.1 EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

2.2 SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE

2.3 SENSITIVITY OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS

2.4 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

2.5 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND THE PROTECTED AREA SYSTEM

3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS

3.1 ADAPTATION PATHWAYS

3.2 SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS BY SUB-WATERSHED

4.0 SOURCES

5.0 LIST OF ANNEXES

ANNEX I. FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSION GUIDES

ANNEX II. CLIMATE ANALYSIS

ANNEX III. PROTECTED AREAS PROFILES

ANNEX IV. PHENOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

ANNEX V. VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS

ANNEX VI. LIST OF CONTACTS – SCOPING TRIP AND FOCUS GROUPS

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras iii

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ARCC African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change

CODELES Local Emergency Committees

CODEMS Municipal Emergency Committees

COPECO Permanent Contingency Commission of Honduras

DGRH Dirección General de Recursos Hídricos

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

ERA European Reanalysis

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FIC Fundación para la Investigación del Clima

FIPAH Foundation for Participatory Farmer Research

FGDs focus group discussions

FtF Feed the Future

GHCN Global Historical Climatology Network

HDI Human Development Index

ICF Institute of Forest Conservation

ICT Information and communications technologies

ITC Instituto Tecnológico Comunitario

IEH Instituto de Estudios del Hambre

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute

IHCAFE Instituto Hondureño del Café

IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

JAPOE Council for Administration of Water and Sewage Disposal

KIIs Key Informant Interviews

MEI Multivariate ENSO Index

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Sectroradiometer

MPI Multidimentional Poverty Index

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras iv

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NGO Nongovernmental organization

PIF Programa de Investigación en Frijol

PLCI Permanent Land Cover Index

PY psyllid yellow disease of potato

QSMAS Quesungual Slash-and-Mulch Agroforestry System

RCPs Recommended Concentration Pathyways

SES social-ecological systems

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

USAID United States Agency for International Development

USDA United States Department of Agriculture

VA Vulnerability Assessment

WEIA Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index

ZC Zebra chip disease

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSESSMENT

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)/African and Latin American Resilience to

Climate Change (ARCC) Project conducted the Western Honduras Climate Change Vulnerability

Assessment (Western Honduras VA) in 2014 in response to requests from USAID/Honduras. The assessment represents a multidisciplinary effort to assess the impact of climate change1 and variability2 on social and ecological systems in Western Honduras. This assessment focused on Western

Honduras’s Dry Corridor (in Spanish, Corredor Seco) region and the six departments receiving Feed the

Future (FtF) programming support: Copán, Ocotepeque, Lempira, Santa Barbara, Intibucá, and La Paz.

The objectives of this assessment were to:

understand the historical trends and future projections for climate in Western Honduras;

assess how these climate projections will affect livelihoods and ecosystems in the region; and identify existing and potential adaptive responses that can be integrated into USAID, Government of Honduras, and other donor programming in Western Honduras to strengthen the resilience of livelihoods and ecosystems to climate-related impacts.

RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

The research framework for this assessment is based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) definition that vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This assessment examines climate change vulnerability through the lens of social-ecological systems, which recognize the interaction and interdependence of humans and nature and the dependence of individuals and communities on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. Social systems refer to the individuals, households, communities, livelihoods, institutions, and networks that shape human society. Ecological systems refer to the resources that make up the natural environment, including land, water resources, forests, and watersheds.

The research team implemented this research framework through five distinct yet interconnected analytical components: climate; ecosystems (including eco-hydrology3 and protected areas); phenology4;

1 Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) (IPCC, 2013).

2 Climate variability refers to natural seasonal variations and multi-year cycles (for example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) that produce warm, cool, wet, or dry periods across different regions (IPCC, 2013). These events are part of natural variability and are not climate change.

3 Eco-hydrology is an interdisciplinary field that studies the interactions between water and ecosystems (Zalewski et al.

1997). The three principles of eco-hydrology are: 1) hydrological (the quantification of the hydrological cycle of a basin); 2) ecological (the integrated processes at river basin scale that determine the basin’s carrying capacity and ecosystem

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras vi value chains and livelihoods; and institutions. The assessment’s analytical components have been woven together into an integrated assessment to generate evidence-based information on climate change vulnerability with the goal of informing USAID programming and investment decisions.

ASSESSMENT METHODS

The assessment employed a mixed-methods approach that used existing secondary and primary data collection through Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with representatives of key national, regional, and local institutions as well as Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with local institutions and farmers in

Western Honduras. The research team adopted analytical methodologies and tools from the Southern

Honduras Vulnerability Assessment where appropriate and also employed methodologies that have been used under previous climate change vulnerability assessments the ARCC Project conducted, including in

Uganda, Malawi, and the Dominican Republic.

The climate analysis assesses temperature patterns, trends, and predictions; precipitation seasonality, trends, and predictions; and major climate disturbances in the region, including tropical cyclones and fire. High-resolution precipitation measurements of the satellite-borne Tropical Rainfall Measuring

Mission (TRMM) radar, covering the period 1998-2013, are the basis for sub-regional comparisons and trend analyses. Department-level climatic characterizations were developed from quality-controlled

Global Historical Climatological Network observations in a format provided by the World Bank and augmented by TRMM observations. National- and regional-scale temperature trends are taken from the authoritative, quality-controlled Berkeley Earth Project data series. Precipitation observations from the climatological station network of the Dirección General de Recursos Hídricos (DGRH) (seven stations) were used to validate TRMM observations covering the 1998-2013 period. Assessed climate predictions for temperature and precipitation are from consensus findings presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC projections for the Central America region.

The ecosystems analysis assesses the sensitivity of ecological systems in Western Honduras to climate variability and change. This was carried out through two interconnected analyses: an eco-hydrology analysis and protected areas analysis. The eco-hydrology analysis assesses land use cover as well as geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of eight sub-watersheds that represent the social and ecological characteristics of Western Honduras. An eco-hydrological vulnerability index is calculated for these sub-watersheds based on key eco-hydrological variables — permanent land cover and water production potential — in order to identify sub-watersheds with the greatest eco-hydrological sensitivity to exposure to climate projections of increased temperature and precipitation variability. The protected areas analysis assesses the current functioning of protected areas in the

Western Honduras region based on a review of secondary literature, KIIs, and FGDs. Together these analyses provide an in-depth understanding of the degree to which ecosystems in Western Honduras may be affected by climate-related stresses and shocks.

The phenological analysis focuses on major crops in the Western Honduras region — coffee; maize;

beans; and two horticultural crops, potatoes and lettuce — to determine how projected changes in services); and 3) ecological engineering (the regulation of hydrological and ecological processes based on an integrative system approach).

4 Phenology is the study of recurring biological phenomena and their relationship to weather, such as seasonal and interannual variations in climate. It is generally related to the effect of climate on the timing of biological events, such as the first emergence of buds and leaves, or date of harvest (Hermes, 2004).

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras vii rainfall and temperature may affect the requirements for the growth cycle of each crop as well as associated diseases and pests. To determine the sensitivity of coffee, maize, beans, lettuce, and potatoes to climate change and variability, the phenological analysis took into account: 1) ranges of temperature and precipitation required for the development of each crop, specific to Western Honduras; 2) climate projections for Western Honduras based on the findings of the climate analysis; and 3) the potential impact on plant development under these projected climatic conditions at different phenological stages.

The sensitivity of social systems to climate change and variability was assessed through a value chain analysis and livelihoods analysis. Following the methodology utilized under ARCC’s Uganda Climate

Change Vulnerability Assessment, the value chain analysis used secondary literature, KIIs, and FGDs to assess the sensitivity of the selected value chains (coffee, maize, beans, and horticulture) to projected changes in climate and their impacts along the value chain. The livelihoods analysis is complementary and closely linked to the value chain analysis. It utilizes secondary literature and data generated from

FGDs with farmers and local institutions to assess how climate variability and change directly and indirectly affect both agricultural and non-agricultural livelihoods. To expand upon the eco-hydrological vulnerability index, a social-ecological vulnerability index is calculated that integrates key social variables to identify sub-watersheds that are social-ecologically most sensitive to climate exposure.

An institutional analysis was woven throughout the specific component analyses as a means to understand sensitivity and adaptive capacity within these components. The institutional analysis, which utilized information generated from KIIs and FGDs with key environmental and agricultural institutions and farmers in the Western Honduras region, provided insights into the responses of regional and local institutions in Western Honduras for enabling adaptive responses to effectively withstand and respond to climate-related shocks and stresses.

Field research was carried out in two phases in this assessment: a Scoping Trip consisting of KIIs with key institutions, and a Field Assessment Phase consisting of FGDs with local institutions and farmers.

CLIMATE ANALYSIS RESULTS

After a rapid multi-decade increase in temperature peaking in 1998, the temperature trend in Western

Honduras has been nearly neutral for the past 15 years, sustaining high baseline values above any experienced for many hundreds of years. Natural variability governs annual-decadal temperature trends in Western Honduras through the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The opposing phases of ENSO

— El Niño and La Niña — typically cause monthly temperatures to be 0.75-1.0 °C above average and below average. Climate models predict increased temperatures of around +2 °C by 2050 due to greenhouse gas forcing. An absence of strong El Niño events since the late 1990s has suppressed the occurrence of exceptionally warm years; therefore, there is potential for an upward jump in baseline temperature mean with the return to an El Niño-dominated pattern of Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures.

The past 16 years have seen widely varying rainfall trends across the project region. Extremely large increases have occurred in the West, maximized around Ocotepeque (+35 mm/year trend); this increase is contrasted with the northern Santa Barbara region, where slight declines are observed.

Rainfall trends currently show strong and sustained multi-decadal increases in all seasons; however, an analysis of frequency and intensity of rainfall reveals that the increase in precipitation may be due to more intense storm events rather than an increase in the actual number of days of precipitation. The

IPCC model consensus strongly asserts that significant drying on the magnitude of a 10-20 percent decrease in precipitation by 2050 will characterize the regional climate by mid-century. When taken with the model consensus of close to 2 °C of warming for the same time period, climate models suggest that by mid-century, Western Honduras may be a “hotspot” of magnified climate change stress as compared to other areas of Central America and Mexico. The potential for a shift to drier conditions

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras viii makes it more urgent to take advantage of the current wetter-than-average climate to carry out adaptive actions such as reforestation of watersheds.

Tropical cyclones have been low frequency (one to two per decade) but high magnitude events (up to

50 percent of annual rainfall/five days) affecting Western Honduras. Risks may grow due to warming seas and also extension of hurricane season duration. Detailed climate model predictions of tropical cyclones are starting to become available but are inconclusive about how activity will evolve in the Central

America region. The warming of sea-surface temperatures off both the southern and northern coasts will foster conditions more supportive for tropical cyclone development than in the past. Rainfall delivery in tropical cyclones is expected to increase by approximately 15 to 20 percent by late-century as the climate warms, suggesting increasing risks of high-magnitude flood events.

Satellite-based assessments of forest burning since 1996 suggest that precipitation trends and variability exert considerable control over fire occurrence. This result, inferred from national-level analysis, would need to be refined to the regional level to be quantified for Western Honduras.

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECOSYSTEMS

A 10 to 20 percent reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature by between 1.0 and 2.5°C will have profound impacts on water resources in the region; this change will interact with and exacerbate other human-induced pressures affecting water quantity and quality, particularly where population growth rates and urbanization are high, such as in Santa Rosa de Copan, La Esperanza, Gracias, Ocotepeque, Marcala, and Santa Barbara. Possible effects of climate projections — including an increase in temperature by between 1.0 and 2.5 °C as well as a 10 to 20 percent reduction in precipitation — on water resources include: reduced surface water availability for direct use by communities and urban areas, agriculture, and economic processes; decreased groundwater recharge rates, which could substantially affect dry season flows; disappearance or reduced discharge rates of springs, which are an important water supply for rural communities in Western Honduras; increased use of irrigation upstream, leading to increased water competition and potential water conflicts among competing users; reduced soil moisture due to higher evaporation levels; and increased water pollution with potential impacts on human health and ecosystems.

The results of an eco-hydrological vulnerability analysis indicate that Venado-Lempa is the most eco-hydrologically sensitive to climate exposure, followed by San Juan-Lempa, Palagua-Goascoran, and

Higuito. Venado-Lempa, San Juan-Lempa, and Palagua-Goascoran have the lowest water production potential of the selected sub-watersheds. Therefore, under climate projections of increased temperature and reduced precipitation, these sub-watersheds would face even greater conditions of water stress, as climate impacts would further reduce already scarce water supplies for ecosystems, crops, and human consumption. The least eco-hydrologically vulnerable sub-watershed based on these results is Grande de

Otoro, which has the highest permanent land cover and highest water production potential rate of the eight selected sub-watersheds. Grande de Otoro’s high level of permanent land cover and high water production potential indicate that the sub-watershed has a greater ability to withstand the impacts of increased temperatures and reduced precipitation.

The 21 protected areas of Western Honduras conserve more than 13 percent of natural vegetation in the region (i.e., permanent land cover). They play a critical role in building resilience to climate change and variability in the region by reducing vulnerability to floods, droughts, and other weather-induced problems; protecting people from sudden climate events; and supporting species to adapt to changing climate patterns by providing refuge and migration corridors.

Climate change predictions for the region will have significant impacts on natural ecosystems and protected areas in Western Honduras. Areas suitable for cooler, moister forest types — broadleaf

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras ix forests, mixed forests, and pine forests — would decrease, and areas suitable for cloud forests would completely disappear. This change would have profound impacts on protected areas in Western

Honduras. At least 15 protected areas in the region contain cloud forests, including Celaque, Opalaca, Montaña Verde, Puca, El Jilguero, Guajiquiro, Sabanetas, Montecillos, Mixcure, Volcán Pacayitas, El Pital, Montecristo Trifinio, Cerro Azul Copán, and Montaña de Santa Barbara. Climate impacts on cloud forests would, in turn, directly affect water supply for the thousands of communities in the Western

Honduras region that depend on these protected areas and ecosystems for water resources.

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROPS

The targeted crops for this assessment — coffee, maize, beans, and two horticultural crops, lettuce and potatoes — were selected for analysis because they are those most widely grown in Western Honduras and are critically important for food and livelihood security in the region. The phenological analysis found that all crops are vulnerable to projected climate change impacts of increased temperature and reduced and more variable precipitation.

Coffee: Changes in the timing of rain and dry periods during floral development have significant impact on fruit and grain development. Arabica coffee responds sensitively to increasing temperatures, specifically during blossoming and fruit development. There is very high potential for increased prevalence of Coffee Leaf Rust, particularly under increased rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperature scenarios. Outbreaks tend to occur after periods of rain, as Leaf Rust requires water for spore germination.

Potato: The potato plant is susceptible to both drought and excessive water in the soil, and most vegetative stages are vulnerable to climate extremes. There is high potential for an increase in common pests and diseases that affect potatoes due to climate change impacts, particularly Potato Psyllid and

Potato Late Blight. If not controlled by fungicide, Potato Late Blight can destroy entire potato fields in just a few days.

Lettuce: Excessive rain and drought will have an impact on early stages of the plant, in particular germination and early emergence, if seeds are germinated in fields. However, the use of raised beds and greenhouses to produce transplants is common practice in Western Honduras, and make lettuce less vulnerable to climate impacts in early stages of development.

Maize: Climate can affect maize at all stages of development, but the most vulnerable stages are at germination, flowering, and physiological maturity. Climate projections of increased precipitation variability and higher temperatures will affect early vegetative stages of germination as well as emergence and seedling growth. Extended dry periods are a serious problem for early maize plants and plants do not survive for very long if drought is associated with high temperatures. Climate projections of changes in the timing of precipitation patterns will likely force farmers to modify current planting and harvesting dates.

Beans: There is a moderate potential for decreased productivity of beans due to changes in precipitation, particularly during the vegetative stages of plant initiation and emergence. Under a scenario of low moisture in the soil, beans are comparatively more resilient than other crops and can tolerate mild droughts and also mild waterlogging due to additional rainfall. Excessive rain at the times of flowering can affect pod formation and reduce yield.

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOCIAL SYSTEMS

Livelihoods in Western Honduras are highly sensitive to climate impacts, as they depend predominantly on agriculture. A 10 to 20 percent reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature by between

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras x

1.0 and 2.5 °C will have significant effects on livelihoods and agricultural value chains in Western

Honduras. Taking this scenario into account, below we discuss potential direct and indirect impacts of these changes in climate on main livelihood systems and the targeted crop value chains.

Maize and beans. For basic grain production that occurs throughout the Western Honduras region, as climate impacts reduce yield of maize and beans, this reduction will create indirect effects on livelihoods through increased cereal prices, cost of feed, and increased prices of meat. This change, in turn, will decrease household consumption of cereals and reduce meat consumption. Rising local commodity prices would reduce all elements of household food security (access, availability, and utilization), which would negatively affect nutrition security for households, particularly for children. A situation of reduced household food security due to climate-related impacts could contribute to increased crime due to theft of crops. The impacts of the 2014 El Niño provide an indication of how climate-related shocks affect the maize and bean value chains in Western Honduras. Irregular and delayed rains have negatively affected maize and bean production in the region; this shift has significantly driven up prices, particularly for beans. In response, the government is importing beans through the

National Commodity Supplier (BANASUPRO) in an attempt to stabilize prices. If these actions do not reduce hoarding behavior, the government is considering plans to freeze bean prices in local markets and supermarkets.

Coffee. Coffee is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability, both in terms of its phenological stages and the coffee value chain, thereby creating high levels of vulnerability for the many households in Western Honduras that depend on coffee production for their livelihoods. As climate change and variability affects quality and quantity of coffee, it will decrease household income for coffee producers, which in turn will reduce household food access (the affordability and allocation of food, as well as food consumption preferences of individuals and households). As many households that engage in the coffee sector work as wage laborers, the drop-off in demand would compromise the ability of these households to meet their food needs. The impacts of lower quality and quantity of coffee would have reverberations well beyond coffee producers and wage laborers, as they would affect employment and income generation across the many actors that make up the coffee value chain. These impacts would, in turn, negatively affect both the local and national economy of Honduras and reduce exports, thereby generating less revenue for the government. For example, the impacts of Coffee Leaf Rust on coffee production in the 2012-2013 period resulted in economic losses totaling approximately $216 million. In 2014, poor households in Western Honduras have resorted to atypical, negative coping strategies as reduced coffee harvests and below-average Primera (May-August) staple grain production have limited their income and food stocks. Daily unskilled labor opportunities in Honduras are expected to decrease by between 16 and 32 percent compared to the 2011-2012 period due to the effects of the

Coffee Leaf Rust. These events indicate how sensitive the coffee value chain is to climate-related shocks and the magnitude of impacts on livelihoods and the economy.

Horticulture. Increased temperatures and precipitation variability and extremes will decrease productivity of horticulture in Western Honduras. This trend, combined with the high irrigation demand of many horticultural crops, would likely reduce the large-scale viability of horticulture as a livelihoods diversification option across the region. Climate impacts on horticulture production will negatively affect employment in horticultural production regions of Western Honduras. As horticultural producers and wage laborers in Western Honduras are more prone to out-migration when employment options are limited, reduction of horticulture production due to climate change and variability could create a scenario of increased out-migration to urban areas and, in particular, to the United States.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras xi

CAPACITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

Adaptive capacity can be defined as the ability of people and institutions to anticipate, withstand, and respond to climate change and variability as well as to minimize, cope with, and recover from climate-related impacts. Farmers in Western Honduras have implemented different adaptive practices to adjust to climate-related changes; however, the extent and pace of adoption and innovation does not match the scale of the challenge of climate change.

Local institutions — public, private, and civil society — play an important role in helping individuals and communities in Western Honduras withstand, adapt to, and respond to climate-related shocks and stresses. Some municipalities, particularly those where nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and donor-funded projects have a strong presence, are more advanced in terms of implementing actions to address climate risk. In general, however, agriculture and environmental management institutions in

Western Honduras have limited human, financial, and technical capacity to effectively implement measures to build resilience to climate change and variability. Local institutions in Western Honduras have implemented few actions that are specifically tailored to address climate vulnerabilities grounded in an evidence-based analysis of climate impacts. An institutional analysis of agricultural and environmental management institutions in Western Honduras revealed three significant institutional capacity gaps that hinder their ability to effectively build resilience to climate change impacts:

Lack of local research and extension programs tailored to agro-ecological zones of the Dry

Corridor. Few efforts in Western Honduras have focused on local agricultural and environmental research and extension that are tailored to the diverse agro-ecological zones of the region. Absent in the region are research and extension efforts focused on developing improved varieties of maize, beans, and coffee that are more heat-/drought-tolerant and adapted to the conditions of the dry corridor. In addition, few research and extension efforts target natural resources management in agriculture focusing on practices that will build resilience to climate-related shocks and stresses in the Dry Corridor.

Inadequate information available for adaptive decision-making at local levels. Information and data are lacking for critical decisions about climate change adaptation in Western Honduras, particularly information related to hydrology, soils, and land use. Our research found that where information exists, it is often concentrated at the national level and not shared or made available to decision-makers at the regional or municipal levels.

Institutional focus on disaster response – insufficient emphasis on climate risk management and reduction. While national and regional institutions are making efforts to mainstream disaster risk management and reduction into overall development processes, this work has not yet translated into action at the local level in Western Honduras. Municipal Emergency Committees

(CODEMS), Local Emergency Committees (CODELES), and activities implemented at the community-level continue to focus primarily on response after disasters take place rather than on actions that build community-based resilience to climate risk.

Policy and governance failures underlie threats facing protected areas and undermine their capacity to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Only seven of the 21 protected areas in the region have management plans. None of these existing management plans identify programs, strategies, actions, or activities related to climate change adaptation. The National Institute of Forest Conservation (ICF) does not have the required institutional presence in the field, nor do they have the financial resources to fulfill their constitutional commitment to manage or co-manage the region’s protected areas. There is limited public awareness of the importance of protected areas and insufficient coordination among the actors and organizations that depend on the ecosystem benefits that these areas provide.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras xii

RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Based on a review of the integrated findings on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, a preliminary set of recommendations and adaptation options was developed along five adaptation pathways: 1) knowledge generation, management, and learning; 2) resilient water resources management; 3) conservation of critical ecosystems; 4) diversification; and 5) risk management. These five pathways provide an overarching and holistic strategy that integrates sustainable land and water management into production systems and landscapes as a means for building resilience of ecosystems and livelihoods in the Western Honduras region to climate change and variability.

Adaptation Pathway 1: Knowledge generation, management, and learning. The VA revealed significant gaps in the generation of knowledge needed to make adaptive decisions to respond to climate change in the Dry Corridor, the management and coordination of that knowledge, and subsequent application and learning by decision-makers. We recommend the establishment of a “Climate Change Knowledge Center” for the Dry Corridor region that serves as a “one-stop-shop” for all data and research on climate change in the Dry Corridor. The Climate

Change Knowledge Center would provide information on, and develop awareness about, climate change impacts and adaptation responses in the Dry Corridor with the objective of influencing decision-making for cross-sectoral adaptation efforts in the region. There is a strong need for participatory local research and extension efforts focusing on climate-smart water management practices and agricultural practices such as heat-/drought-tolerant varieties of maize, beans, and coffee, as well as soil, forestry, and agroforestry systems tailored to the diverse agro-ecological conditions in Western Honduras.

Adaptation Pathway 2: Resilient water resources management. At its core, adaptation to climate change impacts in Western Honduras requires building the resilience of the region’s water resources. To do this, decision-makers must have access to credible hydrological information to make management decisions in the face of an uncertain climate future. Efforts are needed to improve the evidence and information base on quantity and quality of water resources in Western

Honduras as well as on-farm and watershed-level interventions that protect key water sources — particularly in upper recharge areas of sub-watersheds — and effectively build resilience to climate impacts on watersheds. Opportunities to establish payment for hydrological services schemes should be explored to create incentives for watershed management and water resources conservation. Activities should target sub-watersheds that are considered most vulnerable from an eco-hydrological standpoint; the eco-hydrology analysis identified El Venado-Lempa, San Juan-

Lempa, Higuito, and Mocal-Lempa as most vulnerable.

Adaptation Pathway 3: Conservation of critical ecosystems. Building the resilience of critical ecosystems in Western Honduras is essential for reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability, as these ecosystems are essential for providing and protecting key ecosystem services for communities in the region, particularly water supplies, and for regulating local climate and hydrological flows. Actions should focus on protecting areas currently forested while restoring areas that have been cleared, particularly on steep slopes. Considerable effort is needed to improve the management of protected areas and buffer zones and to mainstream climate considerations into Protected Area management, as management institutions and plans currently do not take into account climate impacts. This work requires improved enforcement of current environmental laws and regulations that protect habitats, forests, watersheds, soils, and species.

Adaptation Pathway 4: Diversification. Households in Western Honduras heavily depend on agricultural activities that are inherently vulnerable to climate change and variability. As the climate in Western Honduras becomes more variable in the future, agriculture as it is currently practiced is

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras xiii becoming a less viable livelihood option for rural families. Diversification, both within and outside of agriculture, is essential to buffer climate impacts and spread household financial risk. Considerable efforts are needed to identify, develop, and strengthen diversified on-farm and off-farm livelihood options that are more resilient to climate-related shocks and stresses. Climate-resilient on-farm options that should be explored include the production of cashews, mangoes, plums, timber, avocadoes, cocoa, sesames, and tamarind. Climate-resilient off-farm livelihood options could involve eco- or cultural tourism associated with protected areas, handicrafts, and the processing of agricultural and forestry products. The use of remittances and microcredit could facilitate off-farm livelihoods diversification and the development of rural microenterprises. Expanding and strengthening vocational education programs targeting youth will enhance on-farm and off-farm livelihood diversification.

Adaptation Pathway 5: Risk Management. Local institutions in Western Honduras have focused principally on disaster response without sufficient understanding and attention placed on climate risk management and reduction. Efforts are needed at the municipal and community level in

Western Honduras to build the capacity of local institutions, particularly CODEMS and CODELES, to reduce the risk of climate-related disasters. An important element of improving disaster risk management in Western Honduras is to strengthen the meteorological network and improve linkages between hydrometeorological information and early warning systems. Efforts are needed to increase the use of climate risk assessment tools and information available to local institutions at the municipal and community levels to integrate climate considerations into planning processes.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras 1

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES

The USAID/ARCC Project conducted the Western Honduras VA in 2014 in response to requests from

USAID/Honduras. The objectives of this assessment are to:

understand the historical trends and future projections for climate in Western Honduras;

assess how these climate projections will affect livelihoods and ecosystems in the region; and identify existing and potential adaptive responses that can be integrated into USAID’s programming in Western Honduras to strengthen the resilience of livelihoods and ecosystems to climate-related impacts.

The assessment represents a multidisciplinary effort to assess the impact of climate change5 and variability6 on social and ecological systems in Western Honduras. This assessment focused on Western

Honduras’s Dry Corridor (in Spanish, Corredor Seco) region and the six departments receiving Feed the

Future (FtF) programming support: Copán, Ocotepeque, Lempira, Santa Barbara, Intibucá, and La Paz.

Figure 1 depicts the study area for the assessment.

1.1.1 USAID’s Climate Change and Development Strategy

The goal of USAID’s 2012–2015 Climate Change and Development Strategy is to “enable countries to accelerate their transition to climate-resilient low emission sustainable economic development” (USAID, 2012, p. 1). The Strategy highlights the importance of natural resources management and biodiversity conservation as essential for building resilience of social and ecological systems to climate change and variability. The Strategy states that “Many years of leadership in biodiversity conservation and natural resources management inform climate sensitive approaches to land use planning and sustainable use of natural resources such as forests and water. Recognizing that this is an emerging field and that adaptation needs will vary considerably with local circumstances, USAID will support…. strengthening of environmental conservation actions that protect natural ecosystems on which human development depends” (USAID, 2012, pp. 16–17). One of the Climate Change and Development Strategy’s “Guiding

Principles” is to value ecosystem services. The Strategy recognizes that well-managed ecosystems provide important services, including food, water supply, erosion control, and flood protection, which are critical to maintain in order to reduce the impacts of climate change.

5 Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) (IPCC, 2013).

6 Climate variability refers to natural seasonal variations and multi-year cycles (for example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) that produce warm, cool, wet, or dry periods across different regions (IPCC, 2013). These events are part of natural variability and are not climate change.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras 2

This assessment integrates historical climate data, projections of climate change, ecosystem sensitivity, phenological characteristics of key crops, and value chain and livelihoods linkages in a comprehensive way to construct an overall analysis of the social and ecological vulnerability to climate variability and change within the context of daily lives of households in Western Honduras.

This report is organized into three sections. Section 1 (Introduction) presents the overall research framework, introduces the analytical components, and provides an overview of the assessment methodology. Section 2 presents the integrated assessment findings organized according to the key variables of vulnerability: exposure to climate change; sensitivity of ecosystems, crops, value chains, and livelihoods to climate change; and the adaptive capacity of households and institutions to respond to the projected impacts of climate change. Section 3 presents recommendations and adaptation options based on the comprehensive understanding of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

1.1.2 Research framework

The research framework for this assessment is based on the 2007 IPCC definition that vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007).

Similar to the USAID/ARCC Southern Honduras Vulnerability Assessment, this assessment examines climate change vulnerability through the lens of social-ecological systems (SES). SES can be defined as

FIGURE 1. ASSESSMENT STUDY AREA

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras 3 integrated systems of ecosystems and human society with reciprocal feedback and interdependence

(Resilience Alliance, 2007). Social systems refer to the individuals, households, communities, livelihoods, institutions, and networks that shape human society. Ecological systems refer to the resources that make up the natural environment, including land, water resources, forests, and watersheds. The concept of SES recognizes the interaction and interdependence of humans and nature and the dependence of individuals and communities on ecosystem services for their livelihoods (Füssel and Klein, 2006; Ostrom, 2009; Smit and Wandel, 2006; Turner et al., 2003; Walker et al., 2004) and has been applied as a framework for climate change vulnerability assessments in a wide range of contexts and regions worldwide (Fraser et al., 2011; Marshall et al., 2010).

The research team implemented this research framework through five distinct but interconnected analytical components: climate; ecosystems (including eco-hydrology and protected areas); phenology;

value chains and livelihoods; and institutions. The assessment’s analytical components have been woven together into an integrated assessment to generate evidence-based information on climate change vulnerability with the goal of informing USAID programming and investment decisions. Figure 2 below depicts how these analytical components fit within the social-ecological research framework.

FIGURE 2. SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH FRAMEWORK FOR WESTERN

HONDURAS ASSESSMENT

1.1.3 Assessment methodology

The assessment employed a mixed-methods approach that utilized existing secondary as well as primary data collection through KIIs and FGDs. The research team adopted analytical methodologies and tools from the Southern Honduras Vulnerability Assessment where appropriate. The research team also employed methodologies that have been used under other previous climate change vulnerability assessments conducted by the ARCC project, including in Uganda, Malawi, and the Dominican Republic.

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras 4

The climate analysis provides a description of general climate characteristics of Western Honduras;

temperature patterns, trends, and predictions; precipitation seasonality, trends, and predictions; and major climate disturbances in the region, including tropical cyclones and fire. It builds upon results previously developed in the Southern Honduras climate exposure analysis while shifting geographic focus and considering the more continental than near-coastal climatology. High-resolution precipitation measurements of the satellite-borne Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar, covering the period 1998-2013, are the basis for sub-regional comparisons and trend analyses. Department-level climatic characterizations were developed from quality-controlled Global Historical Climatological

Network observations in a format provided by the World Bank and augmented by TRMM observations.

National- and regional-scale temperature trends are taken from the authoritative, quality-controlled

Berkeley Earth Project data series. Precipitation observations from the climatological station network of the Dirección General de Recursos Hídricos (DGRH) (seven stations) were used to validate TRMM observations covering the period 1998–2013. Assessed climate predictions for temperature and precipitation are from consensus findings presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC projections for the Central America region.

The ecosystems analysis assesses the sensitivity of ecological systems in Western Honduras to climate variability and change. This was carried out through two interconnected analyses: an eco-hydrology7 analysis and protected areas analysis. The eco-hydrology analysis assesses land use cover, and geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of eight sub-watersheds. The selected sub-watersheds met the following four criteria: 1) they represent key recharge areas for Ríos Ulua, Lempa, and

Goascoran and are therefore critical sources of water supply for the Western Honduras region; 2) they are located in the heart of the Dry Corridor, encompassing a representative range of livelihood zones and ecosystem types; 3) they provide key ecosystem services to important downstream population centers in the Western Honduras region; and 4) they have the potential to form an interconnected biodiversity corridor, both along watershed divides and along riparian areas that could enhance ecological resilience and biodiversity conservation in the region. Lessons from these sub-watersheds can be applied to other sub-watersheds in the Western Honduras region. An eco-hydrological vulnerability index is calculated for these sub-watersheds based on key eco-hydrological variables — Permanent Land

Cover and water production potential — in order to identify sub-watersheds with the greatest eco-hydrological sensitivity to exposure to climate projections of increased temperature and precipitation variability. The protected areas analysis assesses the current functioning of protected areas in the

Western Honduras region based on a review of secondary literature, KIIs, and FGDs. Together, these analyses provide an in-depth understanding of the degree to which ecosystems in Western Honduras may be affected by climate-related stresses and shocks.

The phenological8 analysis focuses on the target crops for this assessment (coffee, maize, beans, and horticulture) to determine how projected changes in rainfall and temperature may affect the growth

7 Eco-hydrology is an interdisciplinary field that studies the interactions between water and ecosystems (Zalewski et al., 1997). The three principles of eco-hydrology are: 1) hydrological (the quantification of the hydrological cycle of a basin); 2) ecological (the integrated processes at river basin scale that determine the basin’s carrying capacity and ecosystem services); and 3) ecological engineering (the regulation of hydrological and ecological processes based on an integrative system approach).

8 Phenology is the study of recurring biological phenomena and their relationship to weather, such as seasonal and interannual variations in climate. It is generally related to the effect of climate on the timing of biological events, such as the first emergence of buds and leaves, or date of harvest (Hermes, 2004).

Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Western Honduras 5 cycle of each crop as well as associated…