RETAIL MARKET POTENTIAL

FOR SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING

MAY 2026

Prepared by:

Applied Economics

11209 N. Tatum Blvd, Suite 225 Phoenix, AZ 85028 i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND LOCATION

1.2 REGIONAL AND LOCAL MARKET AREAS

2.0 MARKET AREA PROFILE

2.1 POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD INCOME

2.2 EMPLOYMENT

2.3 VISITORS

3.0 RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS

3.1 CURRENT RETAIL DEMAND AND SALES

3.2 DEMAND AND SALES ADJUSTMENTS

3.3 MARKET AREA OPPORTUNITIES AND GROWTH

4.0 SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING POTENTIAL……………………………………

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the commercial market potential of a 128-acre site owned by the City of Kingman, Arizona. South Kingman Crossing is part of a larger mixed-use development encompassing more than 300-acres on both sides of Interstate 40 (I-40) between Prospector Street and Castle Rock Road. South Kingman Crossing, on the south side of I-40, has potential for regional retail, entertainment, restaurant, and hospitality uses. The site is within a Planned Development Zone that allows for mixed-use development including retail, housing, and employment opportunities. Planned development zones facilitate development by allowing for greater flexibility to maximize the development potential of this unique property.

The market potential of the site for regional retail is driven by demand from the local Kingman market area, as well as from current and projected visitor traffic on Interstate 40 and U.S.

Highway 93. This analysis results in an opinion on the amount and timing of commercial development that could occur at South Kingman Crossing by 2041.

The current level of retail leakages in the market area, combined with capture rates for South Kingman Crossing, translate into about 172,000 square feet of retail and entertainment space and about 135 hotel rooms (totaling 27.2 acres) that could be supported on the 128-acre site currently. This estimate is based on consumer expenditures currently made outside the region that could be captured locally. The largest current opportunities include general merchandise, restaurants and entertainment. The supportable space at South Kingman Crossing could yield an estimated $2.6 million in annual city sales and lodging taxes.

In terms of future growth, the analysis presents two possible scenarios: a baseline scenario and an optimistic scenario. The baseline scenario relies on the medium series population projections for sub-county areas from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, while the optimistic scenario relies on the high series projections. The optimistic scenario also incorporates a 15% greater increase in visitor volumes.

Under the baseline scenario, growth in demand from residents and visitors could support 335,000 additional square feet of retail, 129,000 square feet of entertainment, and 481 hotel rooms at South Kingman Crossing by 2031, and an additional 59,000 retail square feet, 35,000 entertainment square feet, and 324 hotel rooms by 2041. Including both current and projected demand, this could result in a total of 66.6 acres of development at South Kingman Crossing. This translates into $5.2 million in additional annual city sales and lodging taxes by 2041.

Under the optimistic scenario, increased demand could support an additional 389,000 square feet of retail, 144,000 square feet of entertainment, and 510 hotel rooms at South Kingman Crossing by 2031, and an additional 154,000 retail square feet, 87,000 entertainment square feet, and 527 hotel rooms by 2041. Current demand combined with the level of future growth under the optimistic scenario could yield 94.6 acres of development at South Kingman Crossing by 2041.

This translates into $7.1 million in additional annual city sales and lodging taxes by 2041.

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the commercial market potential of South Kingman Crossing, a 128-acre, city-owned site in Kingman, Arizona that is part of Kingman Crossing. The analysis identifies market potential of the site for regional retail, restaurant and entertainment services based on demand from the local Kingman market area, as well as from current and projected traffic volumes on I-40 and U.S. Highway 93. The analysis results in an opinion on the amount and timing of development that could be expected to occur in the South Kingman Crossing by 2041.

1.1 Project Description and Location

Kingman Crossing is a mixed-use development containing a potential regional commercial development site of up to 300 acres. It is located on both sides of I-40, between Castle Rock Road and Prospector Street (Figure 1). The city-owned site that is the subject of this analysis is located on the south side of I-40. Kingman Crossing is in a Planned Development Zone that would allow developers to plan for a creative mix of uses without the constraints of more narrowly defined zoning designations, making the site more competitive for future development.

FIGURE 1: PROJECT LOCATION AND AREA LAND USE

The South Kingman Crossing site includes 128-acres that is designated for Regional Commercial development. The Regional Commercial designation allows for many different types of uses, including retail development, entertainment and hospitality uses.

As shown in Figure 1, South Kingman Crossing is well-positioned to serve several new housing developments in east Kingman. Existing and future developments in this area are likely to comprise most of the residential development and population growth in Kingman for the next ten to 15 years. This could include development of the 640-acre State Land parcel that is directly to the south of South Kingman Crossing. The accessibility of the site and the potential to serve future growth are strong assets supporting future commercial development at South Kingman Crossing.

1.2 Regional and Local Market Areas

Demand for commercial development will be driven by the local Kingman market area, as well as from current and projected visitors to the region. As shown in Figure 2, Kingman is strategically located at the crossroads of I-40 and U.S. Highway 93 in an area that is over 100 miles from the next closest community on either thoroughfare in any direction. Over 7.5 million people live within 200 miles of Kingman, and over 29 million people live within 300 miles, which includes much of Southern California.

Most of the traffic flow on I-40 is east-west, limiting the impact of the area’s proximity to Las Vegas, which is the closest major market. However, the flow of traffic north-south is projected to increase almost as fast as the east-west traffic over the next 20 years, and it would expand even more in the long-term based on the progress of Interstate 11. Interstate 11 would replace U.S.

Highway 93 between Phoenix and Las Vegas and would likely boost through traffic considerably, however, the timeline for construction of the north segment from Phoenix to Las Vegas is uncertain due to pending legal challenges.

The 1-40 West Corridor Profile Study Update, produced by ADOT in 2022, noted that the average daily traffic volume on I-40 east and west of the City of Kingman is projected to increase by 48% between 2020 and 2040. This puts Kingman in a strategic position to benefit from the increase in through traffic, which could increase retail sales potential created by visitors.

FIGURE 2: REGIONAL MARKET AREA

The local market area for Kingman is defined to include Kingman and the communities immediately surrounding it, as shown in Figure 3. The somewhat complex market dynamics in southern Mohave County required defining separate market areas for Bullhead City and Lake Havasu City. This allowed for an analysis of how consumer demand and retail sales are distributed within the larger southern Mohave County area.

The center of the Kingman market area includes Kingman and New Kingman-Butler. The market area extends outward to include communities along Highway 66, Highway 68, and U.S. Highway

93. The area excludes the Bullhead City and Lake Havasu City areas that each have nearly the same population as the Kingman market area. While these areas are nearly the same size, the retail sales data reflects major differences between the areas, with Kingman clearly being the most oriented around regional transportation access.

FIGURE 3: LOCAL MARKET AREAS

2.0 MARKET AREA PROFILE

To better understand the market area and its potential for future retail and entertainment development, it is important to understand the characteristics of the people who live and work there. These residents and local businesses will create part of the demand for new development, which will be supplemented by increased visitor traffic described later in this chapter.

2.1 Population and Household Income

Table 1 shows current and projected demographic characteristics for the residents of the Kingman market area and Mohave County. The market area has a current population of nearly 79,000 people, or about 34% of the County. It is projected to grow to almost 82,000 by 2031, resulting in an increase of 3.5% over the next five years. In comparison, the County is expected to grow by about 4.5% during this period.

On average, the population in the market area is slightly younger than the County; however, about 31% of the population is 65 or older, and this share of the population is expected to increase over time. The median adult householder in the market area is about 64 years old, compared to the County median of 65.

Neither the County nor the market area is racially diverse. In both cases, the population is predominately White, with Hispanics representing the largest minority group. The Hispanic population is expected to increase slightly as a share of total population by 2031.

Average household income in the market area is estimated at $73,990 in 2026, which is about 9% lower than the County average of $81,604. Within the market area, about 45% of households have incomes of $50,000 or less, and an additional 31% have incomes between $50,000 and $100,000. About 24% of residents in the market area have incomes of $100,000 or more, compared to only 12% in the County.

In terms of income growth, average household income in the market area is expected to increase by 12% by 2031, compared to 13% growth in the County. Aggregate income, which reflects a combination of population growth and increases in household income, is projected to grow by 19% over five years in the market area. Aggregate income growth is the primary indicator of new retail demand from residents.

TABLE 1: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS

2.2 Employment

Future retail potential is driven a combination of demand from residents, visitors and businesses, and the general robustness of the economy. Currently, there are about 79,000 people and just over 25,000 businesses in the market area (Table 2). This represents 32% of the establishments countywide and 34% of the employment base. Total business sales in the Kingman market area are estimated at $4.41 billion per year, or about 36% of the County total.

2020 2026 2031 2020 2026 2031

Population 213,985 231,078 241,572 71,193 78,997 81,740

Under 18 17% 16% 15% 18% 17% 17%

18 and over 83% 86% 85% 82% 83% 83%

21 and over 81% 82% 82% 79% 78% 80%

65 and over 31% 35% 39% 28% 31% 35%

Median Age 53.83 54.11 54.57 51.11 50.73 50.93

Race and Ethnicity 213,985 231,078 241,572 71,193 78,997 81,740

White 80% 77% 74% 80% 75% 75%

Black 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

American Indian 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Asian/Pacific Islander 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Other 15% 18% 20% 14% 18% 18%

Hispanic/Latino 16% 19% 22% 13% 16% 19%

Households by Age of Householder 91,270 100,184 106,272 29,753 32,859 34,937

Householder under 45 years 20% 21% 21% 22% 23% 23%

Householder 45 to 64 years 35% 29% 24% 35% 29% 26%

Householder 65 year and over 45% 50% 55% 43% 47% 51%

Median Age of Householder 63.09 65.05 66.86 62.01 63.80 65.56

Households by Income Level 91,270 100,184 106,272 29,753 32,859 34,937

Less than $50,000 54% 50% 44% 48% 45% 40%

$50,000 to $100,000 36% 39% 44% 34% 31% 31%

$100,000 to $200,000 9% 10% 12% 15% 20% 22%

$200,000 or more 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6%

Average Household Income $71,113 $81,604 $92,048 $64,648 $73,990 $82,714

Median Household Income $47,686 $60,253 $67,476 $51,081 $55,616 $62,450

Aggregate Income (Millions) $6,490.5 $8,175.4 $9,782.1 $1,923.5 $2,431.2 $2,889.8

Source: Claritas Population Trends, 2026; Woods and Poole, 2026.

Mohave County Kingman Market Area

The largest industry sectors in terms of employment in both the Kingman market area and Mohave County include retail and healthcare, which employ 3,500 and 5,100 people, respectively, in the market area. Given the accessibility to I-40 and Highway 93, Kingman has a larger share of employment in transportation and warehousing compared to the County; as well as in wholesale trade and manufacturing. As the County seat, Kingman also has a larger share of employment in public administration. The market area has a lower concentration of professional services and administrative services employment than the County.

TABLE 2: BUSINESS FACTS SUMMARY

NAICS Industry

Establish-ments Employees

Sales

(Millions)

Establish-ments Employees

Sales

(Millions)

Establish-ments Employees

Sales

(Millions)

11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 40 199 $15.4 18 54 $4.0 45% 27% 26%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 8 52 $10.8 4 32 $5.3 50% 62% 49%

22 Utilities 31 300 $177.8 12 84 $37.9 39% 28% 21%

23 Construction 656 6,693 $942.0 167 1,029 $152.7 25% 15% 16%

31-33 Manufacturing 243 2,794 $590.4 74 1,574 $300.4 30% 56% 51%

42 Wholesale Trade 179 1,222 $1,559.9 56 688 $855.8 31% 56% 55%

44 Retail Trade 1,134 10,911 3,823 338 3,454 $1,292.2 30% 32% 34%

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 197 1,934 $834.0 50 638 $211.5 25% 33% 25%

444 Building Material and Garden Equipment 99 1,389 $163.7 28 414 $50.4 28% 30% 31%

445 Food and Beverage Stores 124 1,852 $529.0 36 740 $210.8 29% 40% 40%

449 Furniture and Home Furnishings 52 226 $37.8 13 45 $7.3 25% 20% 19%

4492 Electronics and Appliance Stores 16 83 $11.2 3 7 $0.8 19% 8% 7%

455 General Merchandise and Dept Stores 110 2,585 $792.4 36 682 $205.5 33% 26% 26%

456 Health and Personal Care Stores 108 840 $220.2 29 177 $45.9 27% 21% 21%

457 Gasoline Stations 190 991 $960.4 74 511 $499.6 39% 52% 52%

458 Clothing and Accessories 49 176 $24.3 10 35 $4.3 20% 20% 18%

4591 Sporting Goods and Hobbies 75 301 $9.7 21 55 $18.7 28% 18% 193%

4599 Smoking Supply Stores 19 61 $8.3 6 15 $2.1 32% 25% 26%

4595 Used Merchandise Stores 31 172 $103.8 11 33 $19.9 35% 19% 19%

4599 Other Misc Retail Stores 64 301 $127.7 21 102 $15.3 33% 34% 12%

48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 190 1,473 $184.6 61 655 $87.3 32% 44% 47%

51 Information 163 1,237 $306.7 54 411 $93.6 33% 33% 31%

52 Finance and Insurance 563 1,293 $384.5 177 439 $168.2 31% 34% 44%

53 Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 513 3,054 $385.4 124 1,423 $210.0 24% 47% 54%

54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 550 2,074 $195.8 176 606 $49.4 32% 29% 25%

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 8 113 $11.2 2 95 $2.3 25% 84% 21%

56 Administrative and Support and Waste Mgmt 263 2,350 $189.2 70 429 $30.4 27% 18% 16%

61 Educational Services 150 5,016 $45.1 45 1,227 $14.4 30% 24% 32%

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 2,474 13,156 $2,300.8 890 5,104 $761.6 36% 39% 33%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 161 1,475 $260.7 41 389 $42.7 25% 26% 16%

711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports 28 115 $11.3 8 18 $1.4 29% 16% 13%

712 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar 34 400 $38.1 14 138 $8.9 41% 35% 23%

713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation 99 960 $211.2 19 233 $32.4 19% 24% 15%

72 Accommodation and Food Services 634 7,960 $479.9 186 2,574 $140.2 29% 32% 29%

721 Accommodation 138 1,390 $86.9 51 461 $26.2 37% 33% 30%

722 Food Services and Drinking Places 496 6,570 $392.9 135 2,113 $113.9 27% 32% 29%

81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 1,077 4,380 $301.7 348 1,381 $104.7 32% 32% 35%

92 Public Administration 367 7,928 $113.7 185 3,636 $58.0 50% 46% 51%

Total 9,404 73,680 $12,278.1 3,028 25,284 $4,411.1 32% 34% 36%

Source: Claritas Business Profile Report, 2026.

Mohave County Kingman Market Area Kingman Market Area Share

2.3 Visitors

In addition to residents and businesses, one of the key drivers of future retail and entertainment demand is visitors. According to the Arizona Office of Tourism, the general profile of visitors to the region includes people aged 25 to 54 traveling with a spouse/partner and children. About 26% of visitors to the region are from California, 20% from Arizona, 10% are from Nevada, and the remainder for other states like Texas and Colorado. Overnight visitors stay an average of 2.6 days in the region.

About 40% of all visitors to Mohave County stayed overnight in hotels/motels, 34% stayed in private homes or vacation homes, 3% stayed in campgrounds. The remaining 23% were day-trip visitors. Average daily expenditures for visitors depended on the type of lodging and purpose of the trip, but the average for overnight visitors was $287 per person per trip in 2024. For all visitor types combined, annual visitor spending in Mohave County in 2024 was estimated at $835.4 million.

In looking at South Kingman Crossing, it is important not only to understand the characteristics of current visitors to the region, but also projected growth in visitor volumes. Traffic counts on highways and interstates through the area are a good indicator of growth in visitor volumes. Data from the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) indicates there are currently about 25,600 vehicles per day on I-40 on the east side of Kingman, which at that point includes through traffic on I-40 and travelers on U.S. Highway 93 to and from metro Phoenix (Figure 4). About 17,500 vehicles per day are present on I-40 on the west side of Kingman. The next largest traffic volumes currently are on U.S. Highway 93, between I-40 and State Highway 68, with 30.800 vehicles per day. Just beyond this segment, the traffic splits, with about 15,600 vehicles continuing U.S. Highway 93 to and from Las Vegas and about 10,700 vehicles heading to and from Bullhead City on State Highway 68.

The Federal Highway Administration provides projections of future traffic volumes for 2040 based on projected population growth, land use changes and traffic volumes on adjacent highway routes. According to their projections, the most significant increases in traffic volume within the Kingman market area will be on the segment of I-40 just east of Kingman, which includes the South Kingman Crossing site, with 9,500 additional vehicles per day by 2040; this represents a 37% increase over current volume and includes increases in both local traffic and pass-through traffic. The segment of I-40 west of Kingman, are each expected to add 11,600 vehicles per day by 2040, reflecting a 66% increase.

These increases in traffic volume in and out of Kingman near the South Kingman Crossing site will boost demand for retail, restaurant and entertainment and are incorporated in the market area demand projections described in Section 3.

3.0 RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS

To project future sales and development potential, it is important to understand the components of supply and demand. For this analysis, it is also necessary to adjust supply and demand to provide a realistic assessment of the market potential. Supply must be adjusted to separate demand from residents versus visitors, and resident demand must be adjusted to account for non-store purchases. Based on those adjustments, it is possible to estimate gaps and opportunities by type of store. Growth in the market area is then added to the current opportunities to project future demand.

3.1 Current Retail Demand and Sales

As a starting point, Table 3 shows current supply and demand within the Kingman market area and in Mohave County. Demand data by type of good or service represents consumer expenditures, whereas supply data represents retail sales. Within the Kingman market area, demand exceeds supply in most categories. These gaps represent categories where local consumers are making purchases outside the market area, which could include on-line purchases and on-site purchases in areas like Las Vegas or Phoenix.

TABLE 3: CONSUMER EXPENDITURES AND SALES

2026 Demand (Consumer

Expenditures) 2026 Supply (Retail Sales)

Opportunity Gap/(Surplus)

2026 Demand (Consumer

Expenditures) 2026 Supply (Retail Sales)

Opportunity Gap/(Surplus)

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $593,276,406 $518,595,030 $74,681,376 $147,118,639 $134,041,748 $13,076,892 Food At Home $600,092,427 $590,329,480 $9,762,947 $160,725,750 $160,182,271 $543,479 Drugs & Health Aids $172,316,480 $164,365,016 $7,951,464 $49,655,206 $45,730,021 $3,925,186 Clothing $76,966,358 $49,747,875 $27,218,483 $34,810,825 $24,823,324 $9,987,500 Home Furnishings $52,696,784 $47,306,621 $5,390,163 $24,499,281 $17,547,494 $6,951,787 Electronics and Appliances $40,243,913 $12,772,222 $27,471,691 $13,199,460 $2,775,735 $10,423,725 Building Materials $253,401,445 $251,223,155 $2,178,291 $86,171,884 $68,165,340 $18,006,544 Miscellaneous Retail $117,734,579 $95,428,832 $22,305,747 $36,316,749 $29,999,389 $6,317,359 General Merchandise $653,765,752 $633,823,540 $19,942,212 $175,173,876 $170,232,305 $4,941,571 Auto Parts and Tires $61,613,160 $60,807,711 $805,449 $17,682,249 $16,442,462 $1,239,787 TOTAL $2,622,107,303 $2,424,399,481 $197,707,822 $745,353,919 $669,940,090 $75,413,829

HOTEL / LODGING $0 $139,417,359 $0 $0 $44,372,294 $0

ENTERTAINMENT $112,030,619 $109,091,050 $2,939,569 $33,860,843 $32,995,000 $865,843

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicles $685,897,233 $821,706,935 ($135,809,702) $145,006,767 $153,933,665 ($8,926,898) Fuel $343,473,616 $681,897,973 ($338,424,357) $124,922,510 $234,913,852 ($109,991,342)

TOTAL $3,763,508,771 $4,176,512,798 ($273,586,667) $1,049,144,039 $1,136,154,901 ($42,638,567)

Sources: Claritas Market Analysis System, Retail Market Power Report, 2026; Arizona Dept of Revenue; Applied Economics.

Merchandise Lines

Mohave County, AZ Kingman Market Area

In contrast, there are only two categories where retail sales exceed local demand in the Kingman market area. These additional sales represent sales to visitors and other non-local consumers.

The most significant category is fuel, where sales exceed local demand by 88%, followed by vehicles, where sales exceed local demand by 6%. Given the volume of interstate through traffic in Kingman, this is not surprising. Note that there are no consumer expenditures in the hotel category because all demand is assumed to come from visitors, whose spending is reflected in taxable retail sales (supply) in this table but not the demand category, which includes residents only.

In total, consumer expenditures in the Kingman market area are estimated at $1.05 billion, compared to retail sales of $1.14 billion for 2026, with most of the difference between supply and demand coming from fuel and vehicle sales.

3.2 Demand and Sales Adjustments

The next step in evaluating the potential for additional development is to adjust resident consumer expenditures for non-store or on-line purchases. According to the Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey, e-commerce sales accounted for 16.3% of their total retail sales in 2025.

These purchases are concentrated in particular categories such as electronics, books, clothing, and home furnishings where 10% to 24% of purchases are not from brick-and-mortar stores. In the Kingman market area, estimated sales from non-store sources total $56.7 million in 2026, resulting in an adjusted demand figure of $987.0 million as shown in Table 4. This adjusted demand figure represents the amount of current demand that could be met by local establishments.

TABLE 4: ADJUSTED CONSUMER EXPENDITURES

KINGMAN MARKET AREA

The next adjustment required is to split supply, or taxable sales, into sales to residents versus sales to visitors, because these components will grow at different rates. Out of total annual sales of $1.14 billion in the Kingman market area in 2026, 75% ($848.8 million) are estimated as sales to residents (Table 5). The remaining $365.7 million (25%) represent sales to visitors. Note that this percentage of overall sales to visitors is largely influenced by fuel sales to visitors.

The largest category of retail sales in the Kingman market area is fuel sales, which are not subject to sales tax, but make up 21% of total sales. Based on the amount of fuel sales in excess of what the local market would demand, this analysis assumes that 45% of fuel sales are to visitors and other non-local customers. There is also a surplus of vehicle sales, which are assumed to be 14% to non-residents.

For most other retail categories, excluding restaurants, sales to residents account for 80% to 90% of total sales. Restaurants, which serve both residents and visitors, are assumed to draw 64% of their sales from residents, based on resident demand and estimated visitor spending by type.

Entertainment establishments also serve both visitors and residents, although given the nature

2026 Demand (Consumer

Expenditures)

Share Non- Store

Retailers Non-Store Retailers

2026 Demand (Store

Expenditures)

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $147,118,639 0.00% $0 $147,118,639 Food At Home $160,725,750 3.51% $5,634,400 $155,091,350 Drugs & Health Aids $49,655,206 2.42% $1,201,294 $48,453,913 Clothing $34,810,825 18.62% $6,480,079 $28,330,746 Home Furnishings $24,499,281 10.73% $2,627,783 $21,871,497 Electronics and Appliances $13,199,460 39.44% $5,205,528 $7,993,932 Building Materials $86,171,884 7.68% $6,618,120 $79,553,764 Miscellaneous Retail $36,316,749 12.60% $4,577,520 $31,739,228 General Merchandise $175,173,876 13.55% $23,736,691 $151,437,185 Auto Parts and Tires $17,682,249 3.73% $658,705 $17,023,545

TOTAL $745,353,919 7.61% $56,740,121 $688,613,798

HOTEL / LODGING $0 0.00% $0 $0

ENTERTAINMENT $33,860,843 0.00% $0 $33,860,843

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicles $145,006,767 3.73% $5,401,838 $139,604,929 Fuel $124,922,510 0.00% $0 $124,922,510

TOTAL $1,049,144,039 5.92% $62,141,959 $987,002,080

Sources: Claritas Market Analysis System, Retail Market Power Report, 2026; Census Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2025; Applied Economics.

of the existing entertainment venues in the market area, it is assumed that 77% of sales are to residents. Hotel and lodging sales are attributed exclusively to visitors.

TABLE 5: RETAIL SALES TO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS

Table 6 brings together adjusted resident demand from Table 4 and sales to residents from Table

5. The purpose is to identify market gaps from residents. In general, about 19% of resident retail spending is “leaking” out of the local market. Within the various retail categories, the gaps are low for items typically purchased close to home, such as groceries (food at home) and drug stores at 5% to 15%. However, the gaps are much higher for electronics and appliances (70%), home furnishings (30%), building materials (25%) and clothing (24%), where there are a limited variety of stores and a limited selection of products in the Kingman market area. For entertainment and restaurants, the gaps range from 25% to 41%.

2026 Supply (Retail Sales)

Share Local

Sales to Residents

Sales to Visitors &

Businesses

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $134,041,748 64% $86,321,748 $47,720,000 Food At Home $160,182,271 92% $146,760,957 $14,752,460 Drugs & Health Aids $45,730,021 90% $41,051,318 $4,678,703 Clothing $24,823,324 87% $21,610,231 $3,213,094 Home Furnishings $17,547,494 87% $15,276,173 $2,271,321 Electronics and Appliances $2,775,735 87% $2,416,448 $359,287 Building Materials $68,165,340 87% $59,342,121 $8,823,219 Miscellanious Retail $29,999,389 85% $25,410,524 $4,915,468 General Merchandise $170,232,305 87% $148,102,106 $48,786,304

TOTAL $653,497,628 84% $546,291,625 $135,519,856

HOTEL / LODGING $44,372,294 0% $0 $44,372,294

ENTERTAINMENT $32,995,000 77% $25,395,632 $27,700,000

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicles $153,933,665 86% $133,040,212 $20,893,453 Fuel $234,913,852 55% $129,202,618 $135,671,233 Auto Parts and Tires $16,442,462 90% $14,798,216 $1,644,246

TOTAL $1,136,154,901 75% $848,728,303 $365,801,082

Sources: Claritas Market Analysis System, Retail Market Power Report, 2026; Arizona Dept of Revenue; Applied Economics.

TABLE 6: ADJUSTED CURRENT MARKET GAP FROM RESIDENTS

3.3 Market Area Opportunities and Growth

To understand the market conditions that will impact future development in the Kingman market area, it is necessary to project supply and demand growth. This analysis provides short-term growth projections from 2026 to 2031 and long-term growth projections from 2031 to 2041. The projections include a baseline growth scenario and an optimistic growth scenario. Note that growth rates are applied to the current market gaps, not to total demand. The increases in market gaps are based on projected population growth and projected increases in visitor/traffic volumes. The baseline scenario relies on the most recent Arizona sub-county projections for Mohave County from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity issued in 2022. The optimistic scenario relies on the high series from the county-level projections issued by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity in January 2026. Visitor demand is assumed to be 15% greater in the optimistic scenario, which is also based on higher statewide and regional population and employment.

Adjusted Demand

Adjusted Sales

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $147,118,639 $86,321,748 $60,796,892 41% Food At Home $155,091,350 $146,760,957 $8,330,393 5% Drugs & Health Aids $48,453,913 $41,051,318 $7,402,595 15% Clothing $28,330,746 $21,610,231 $6,720,515 24% Home Furnishings $21,871,497 $15,276,173 $6,595,324 30% Electronics and Appliances $7,993,932 $2,498,162 $5,495,770 69% Building Materials $79,553,764 $59,342,121 $20,211,642 25% Miscellaneous Retail $31,739,228 $25,410,524 $6,328,705 20% General Merchandise $151,437,185 $148,102,106 $3,335,079 2% Automotive Parts & Tires $17,023,545 $14,798,216 $2,225,329 13%

TOTAL $671,590,253 $546,373,338 $127,442,244 19%

HOTEL / LODGING*** $4,437,229 $0 $4,437,229 15%

ENTERTAINMENT $33,860,843 $25,395,632 $8,465,211 25%

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales $139,604,929 $133,040,212 $6,564,717 5%

Fuel Sales**** $124,922,510 $129,202,618 ($4,280,108) -3%

TOTAL $866,516,799 $719,607,398 $142,629,293 16%

Source: Applied Economics, 2026; US Business Reporter, Retail Statistics, 2025.

Merchandise Lines Adjusted Current

Gap/(Surplus)

In the baseline growth scenario, the current market gap from residents in the Kingman market area of $142.6 million is expected to increase by 83% in the short term (2026 to 2031) to $261.4 million, and then by an additional 25% from 2031 to 2041 to $326.2 million (Table 7). Note that this is the percentage increase in the gap, not the percentage increase in total demand. Also, the future sales growth includes additional demand from residents and visitors.

TABLE 7: SALES AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL – BASELINE GROWTH

The largest increases are in the fuel sales categories; although there is currently a small surplus, fuel sales expected to increase by $31.9 million by 2031 and by an additional $18.5 million by 2041. This would translate into demand for 3.6 net acres of additional gas stations. The increase in demand for vehicle sales could support 4.9 net acres of additional auto dealers in the next 15 years.

Total Square Feet **

Total Growth:

2026-2031

Total Growth:

2031-2041 Sales Rate* Current

2026-

2031-

Current-

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $60,796,892 $17,378,629 $8,722,843 $900 75,058 21,455 10,769 107,282 Food At Home $8,330,393 $11,311,312 $5,028,147 $770 12,021 16,322 7,256 35,599 Drugs & Health Aids $7,402,595 $3,485,899 $1,493,923 $950 8,658 4,077 1,747 14,482 Clothing $6,720,515 $1,999,810 $982,405 $560 13,334 3,968 1,949 19,251 Home Furnishings $6,595,324 $1,654,248 $689,839 $425 17,243 4,325 1,804 23,371 Electronics and Appliances $5,495,770 $490,230 $198,401 $663 9,210 822 332 10,364 Building Materials $20,211,642 $5,953,312 $2,563,787 $547 41,056 12,093 5,208 58,356 Miscellaneous Retail $6,328,705 $2,477,782 $1,183,752 $400 17,580 6,883 3,288 27,751 General Merchandise $3,335,079 $16,798,166 $8,465,477 $380 9,752 49,117 24,753 83,622 Automotive Parts & Tires $2,225,329 $1,246,614 $524,911 $330 7,493 4,197 1,767 13,457

TOTAL $127,442,244 $62,796,003 $29,853,485 211,404 123,259 58,873 393,536

HOTEL / LODGING*** $4,437,229 $6,621,207 $7,430,870 *** 193 288 324 805

ENTERTAINMENT $8,465,211 $6,054,428 $3,958,260 $125 75,159 53,755 35,144 164,057

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales $6,564,717 $11,395,817 $5,025,123 $1,443 NA NA NA NA Fuel Sales**** ($4,280,108) $31,898,713 $18,509,566 ***** NA NA NA NA

TOTAL $142,629,293 $118,766,168 $64,777,303 286,563 177,014 94,017 557,593

Source: Applied Economics, 2026; US Business Reporter, Retail Statistics, 2025.

* Dollars per occupied square foot unless otherwise noted.

** Based on shown sales rates and an occupancy rate of 90% for new development.

*** Rooms based on $105/room night, 60% Occupancy Rate, Arizona Office of Tourism Lodging Performance by County, Q4 2025.

**** Net acres based on 10,000 gals per day per acre.

Merchandise Lines

Adjusted Current

Sales

The gap for all other categories of retail establishments is projected to increase by $62.8 million over the next five years and by an additional $29.9 million over the following ten years. This could result in demand for an additional 394,000 square feet of retail stores (excluding fuel sales, vehicle sales, and entertainment) in the Kingman market area over the next 15 years. The specific types of retail with the greatest increase in terms of magnitude are projected to include entertainment, restaurants, general merchandise and building materials. These increases are driven by both local population growth and increased visitor and business demand.

The gap in hotel demand is expected to show a moderate increase of $6.6 million in the short-term (2026 to 2031) and an additional $7.4 million from 2031 to 2041 due to increased visitor traffic. This would translate into about 805 additional hotel rooms demanded by 2041. The gap in entertainment is projected to increase by $6.1 million by 2031 and $4.0 million by 2041, which translates into about 164,000 square feet of additional entertainment space in the Kingman market area.

The optimistic scenario shows the current market gap in the Kingman market area increasing by 115% in the short-term (2026 to 2031), to $306.7 million, and then by an additional 50% from 2031 to 2041, to $459.8 million (Table 8).

In the optimistic scenario, the pattern of industries where the increase in the gap is larger is the same as in the baseline scenario, only the magnitude of impacts is greater. For vehicle and fuel sales combined, there is an increase in the gap of $56.9 million by 2031, and $50.3 million from 2031 to 2041, creating demand for 7.9 net acres of auto dealers and 5.9 net acres of gas stations in the Kingman market area over the next 15 years.

For non-automotive retail, the gap is projected to increase by $91.6 million in the short-term and by an additional $80.0 million in the long-term, resulting in demand for an additional 546,000 square feet in the market area by 2041. The increase in the hotel and lodging categories would generate demand for an estimate 1,075 additional rooms by 2041, and the increase in the entertainment gap could translate into about 236,000 square feet.

TABLE 8: SALES AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL – OPTIMISTIC GROWTH

Total Square Feet **

Total Growth:

2026-2031

Total Growth:

2031-2041 Sales Rate* Current

2026-

2031-

Current-

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking $60,796,892 $24,238,935 $23,558,929 $900 75,058 29,925 29,085 134,068 Food At Home $8,330,393 $17,492,027 $14,605,218 $770 12,021 25,241 21,075 58,337 Drugs & Health Aids $7,402,595 $5,290,478 $4,238,698 $950 8,658 6,188 4,958 19,803 Clothing $6,720,515 $3,118,883 $2,829,860 $560 13,334 6,188 5,615 25,137 Home Furnishings $6,595,324 $2,468,812 $1,946,288 $425 17,243 6,454 5,088 28,785 Electronics and Appliances $5,495,770 $787,949 $596,996 $663 9,210 1,321 1,000 11,531 Building Materials $20,211,642 $8,916,148 $7,195,532 $547 41,056 18,111 14,616 73,783 Miscellaneous Retail $6,328,705 $3,695,696 $3,261,500 $400 17,580 10,266 9,060 36,905 General Merchandise $3,335,079 $23,696,260 $20,318,126 $380 9,752 69,287 59,410 138,449 Automotive Parts & Tires $2,225,329 $1,880,625 $1,489,296 $330 7,493 6,332 5,014 18,839

TOTAL $127,442,244 $91,585,813 $80,040,442 211,404 179,313 154,922 545,638

HOTEL / LODGING*** $4,437,229 $7,614,389 $12,673,064 *** 193 331 551 1,075

ENTERTAINMENT $8,465,211 $7,941,581 $10,196,759 $125 75,159 70,510 90,533 236,202

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales $6,564,717 $16,595,149 $13,746,750 $1,443 NA NA NA NA Fuel Sales**** ($4,280,108) $40,295,294 $36,510,405 ***** NA NA NA NA

TOTAL $142,629,293 $164,032,226 $153,167,421 286,563 249,823 245,454 781,840

Source: Applied Economics, 2026; US Business Reporter, Retail Statistics, 2025.

* Dollars per occupied square foot unless otherwise noted.

** Based on shown sales rates and an occupancy rate of 90% for new development.

*** Rooms based on $105/room night, 60% Occupancy Rate, Arizona Office of Tourism Lodging Performance by County, Q4 2025.

**** Net acres based on 10,000 gals per day per acre.

Merchandise Lines

Sales

Adjusted Current

4.0 SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING POTENTIAL

The sales and development potential of South Kingman Crossing is based on the combination of current retail gaps and projected growth detailed in Section 3.3, as well as sales capture rates.

The potential sales capture rates for South Kingman Crossing are different for current leakages than for projected market growth, and vary by merchandise category, as detailed in Table 9.

Capture rates were developed based on the type and amount of sales potential, the nature of the existing competitive inventory, and the type of development anticipated at South Kingman Crossing.

TABLE 9: SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL – SQUARE FEET

With respect to current leakages, South Kingman Crossing capture rates are assumed to be about 50% for merchandise lines that include necessities, categories with smaller current retail leakages, and categories with a broader base of consumer demand. South Kingman Crossing capture rates of 70% were assigned to categories with larger current retail leakages and/or high levels of demand from visitors. The capture rate for merchandise lines with elements of both types is assumed to be 60%.

Capture Rate Baseline Scenario Optimistic Scenario

Current Leakage Growth Current

2026-

2031-

Current- 2041 Current

2026-

2031-

Current-

RETAIL SALES (Except Automotive) Eating And Drinking 50% 60% 37,529 12,873 6,461 56,863 37,529 17,955 17,451 72,935 Food At Home 50% 60% 6,010 9,793 4,353 20,157 6,010 15,145 12,645 33,800 Drugs & Health Aids 50% 60% 4,329 2,446 1,048 7,824 4,329 3,713 2,975 11,016 Clothing 70% 80% 9,334 3,174 1,559 14,068 9,334 4,951 4,492 18,776 Home Furnishings 70% 80% 12,070 3,460 1,443 16,973 12,070 5,164 4,071 21,304 Electronics and Appliances 70% 80% 6,447 657 266 7,370 6,447 1,056 800 8,304 Building Materials 50% 60% 20,528 7,256 3,125 30,908 20,528 10,867 8,770 40,164 Miscellaneous Retail 70% 80% 12,306 5,506 2,631 20,443 12,306 8,213 7,248 27,766 General Merchandise 60% 60% 5,851 29,470 14,852 50,173 5,851 41,572 35,646 83,069 Automotive Parts & Tires 70% 60% 5,244.9 2,518.4 1,060 8,824 5,245 3,799 3,009 12,053

TOTAL 119,649 77,155 36,799 233,602 119,649 112,434 97,106 329,188

HOTEL / LODGING ** 70% 70% 135 202 227 564 135 232 386 753

ENTERTAINMENT 70% 80% 52,611 43,004 28,115 123,730 52,611 56,408 72,426 181,445

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales 60% 50% 0.8 1.2 0.5 2.6 0.8 1.8 1.5 4.1 Gasoline Sales**** 50% 50% 0.0 1.4 0.8 1.8 0.0 1.7 1.6 3.3

TOTAL 172,260 120,159 64,914 357,332 172,260 168,841 169,532 510,633

Source: Applied Economics, 2026 Note: Based on 0.20 floor-area ratio and an 85% net to gross acre conversion.

** Hotel/motel rooms based on $105/room night, 60% Occupancy Rate, 600 gross square feet per room.

**** Net acres based on 10,000 gals per day per acre.

The South Kingman Crossing capture rates are assumed to increase by 10% in the case of future growth, since the existing base of businesses will be less important to the new consumers and much of the population growth in the Kingman Market Area is likely to be in the area near South Kingman Crossing.

These capture rates are applied to current market opportunities to project the amount of additional acres and square feet that could be supported at South Kingman Crossing. The current level of retail leakages translates into about 172,000 square feet, or about 27.2 acres, of additional retail and entertainment space that could be supported at South Kingman Crossing if all consumer expenditures that are currently made outside the region could be captured locally (Table 10). This includes about 120,000 square feet of retail space, 53,000 square feet of entertainment space and 135 hotel rooms. The largest categories for current opportunities include entertainment, general merchandise, restaurants and building materials.

Under the baseline scenario, growth in demand from residents and visitors could support an additional 120,000 square feet and 202 hotel rooms at South Kingman Crossing by 2031 and an additional 65,000 square feet and 227 hotel rooms by 2041. This translates into 38.7 acres of additional retail, hotel and entertainment development by 2041, including automotive categories (Table 10). Including current supportable space and future growth, the baseline scenario would support 357,000 additional square feet and 564 hotel rooms translating into 66.6 acres of development at South Kingman Crossing by 2041. The largest retail categories in terms of future growth include entertainment, restaurants, general merchandise, and building materials. There is also a significant demand for additional hotel rooms that is driven by increased traveler volume in the market area.

TABLE 10: SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL – ACRES

Gross Acres Absorbed Gross Acres Absorbed Baseline Growth Scenario Optimistic Growth Scenario

Current 2026-

2031-

Current- 2041 Current

2026-

2031-

Current-

RETAIL STORES 16.2 10.4 5.0 31.5 16.2 15.2 13.1 44.5

HOTEL / LODGING 3.1 4.6 5.2 12.9 3.1 5.3 8.9 17.3

ENTERTAINMENT 7.1 5.8 3.8 17.7 7.1 7.6 9.8 25.5

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales 0.8 1.2 0.5 2.6 0.8 1.8 1.5 4.1 Gasoline Sales 0.0 1.4 0.8 1.8 0.0 1.7 1.6 3.3

TOTAL 27.2 23.4 15.3 66.6 27.2 31.6 34.8 94.6

Source: Applied Economics, 2026

Under the optimistic scenario, increased demand could support an additional 169,000 square feet and 232 hotel rooms at South Kingman Crossing by 2031, and an additional 170,000 square feet and 386 hotel rooms by 2041. The optimistic scenario incorporates more population growth, consistent with the high series population projections for the region issued by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity and 15% higher growth in visitor volumes. Including current supportable space, the level of growth associated with the optimistic scenario could yield 511,000 square feet of additional retail and entertainment space and 753 hotel rooms at South Kingman Crossing by 2041. This translates into 58.8 acres of additional retail, hotel and entertainment development by 2031 and 94.6 total acres by 2041.

This level of future potential at South Kingman Crossing can also be translated into projected city sales and lodging tax revenues. Sales per square foot and average hotel room rates are applied to the projected amount of square footage and hotel rooms to estimate taxable sales. Note that gasoline sales are not subject to sales tax. In addition, food for home consumption and prescription drugs are not taxable, which reduces taxable sales from the Food at Home and Drug and Health Aids categories. The city sales tax rate in Kingman is 2.5% for most retail categories, although an additional 1% tax is charged on restaurant and bars, and an additional 4% on lodging.

The currently supportable square footage could yield an estimated $2.6 million in annual city sales and lodging tax revenues, based on the projected capture rate of current retail leakages by South Kingman Crossing (Table 11). Under the baseline scenario, the annual sales and lodging taxes from South Kingman Crossing could increase to $4.2 million by 2031 and $5.2 million by 2041. Under the optimistic scenario, the amount of increased consumer demand that could be captured by South Kingman Crossing could result in $4.8 million in annual sales and lodging tax revenues to the city by 2031 and $7.1 million by 2041. In either scenario, these figures represent a sizeable increase in annual city revenues.

TABLE 11: SOUTH KINGMAN CROSSING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL –

ANNUAL SALES TAX REVENUES (2026 DOLLARS)

City Tax Collections City Tax Collections Conservative Growth Optimistic Growth

Current 2026-

2031-

Current- 2041 Current

2026-

2031-

Current-

RETAIL STORES $2,125,120 $1,019,380 $493,188 $3,637,688 $2,125,120 $1,466,661 $1,308,978 $4,900,759

HOTEL / LODGING ** $201,894 $301,265 $339,151 $842,310 $201,894 $346,455 $576,624 $1,124,973

ENTERTAINMENT $164,601 $134,543 $87,961 $387,105 $164,601 $176,480 $226,595 $567,676

AUTOMOTIVE

Vehicle Sales $98,471 $142,448 $62,814 $303,733 $98,471 $207,439 $171,834 $477,744 Gasoline Sales**** $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

TOTAL CITY SALES

AND LODGING TAX $2,590,086 $1,597,636 $983,114 $5,170,836 $2,590,086 $2,197,034 $2,284,032 $7,071,152

Source: Applied Economics, 2026