Attachment_14_GMFC_Program_Management_Plan.doc

Program Management Plan

For

Development, Integration, and Execution of

AGM-86, Air Launched Cruise Missile Aging & Surveillance Program

(GMFC & SRUs) Prepared By

E-Spectrum Technologies, Inc.

For

Department of the Air Force

AFNWC/NCM

7330 Sentry Blvd

Tinker Air Force Base, OK 73145-8901

October 31, 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

11.1 Overview

21.2 Scope

REFERENCE DOCUMENTS

PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT & IMPLEMENTATION

43.1 Background

53.2 Program Schedule

53.3 Technical Approach

53.3.1 Hardware Analysis Tasks

63.3.2 Implementation Tasks

AGE SENSITIVITY ITEM ANALYSIS (ASIA)

64.1 Test Candidates

64.2 Test Parameters

ENVIRONMENTAL TEST PLANS (ETPs)

TEST REQUIREMENTS DOCUMENTS (TRDs)

76.1 Test Configurations

76.2 A&S Test Classifications

86.3 A&S Test Types

86.3.1 Baseline “A” Tests

86.3.2 Interval “B” Tests

86.3.3 Comprehensive “C” Tests

SAMPLING

97.1 Test Frequency

97.2 Sample Size and Sample Source

97.2.1

GMFC

97.3 Additional Set Aside Requirements

107.3.1 Installation and Checkout (I&CO) Samples

SAMPLE STORAGE ENVIRONMENTS

108.1 GMFC Storage Environment

TEST SCHEDULES

129.1 Recommended/Planned Test Schedules

DATA ANALYSIS AND SERVICE LIFE ESTIMATE

1510.1 Methodology

1610.2 Statistical Analysis

1610.3 Service Life Estimate

1710.4 Reports

1710.5 Data Backups

OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION FLOW

1711.1 Implementation Approach

1811.2 Intermediate Level A&S Activities

1811.3 Test Level Activities

2111.4 Implementation Tasks

2111.4.1 Program Office

2111.4.2 Contractor

ACRONYMS

LIST OF FIGURES

11Figure 1. MOB Temperature Comparison Chart

11Figure 2. MOB Humidity Comparison Chart

19Figure 3. ALCM A&S Implementation Flow

20Figure 4. Test Level Activities

LIST OF TABLES

5Table 1. ALCM FY2015 GMFC A&S Program Milestone Schedule

13Table 2. Recommended/Planned GMFC Test Program for the First 10 Test Cycles

LIST OF APPENDICIES

AGE SENSITIVITY ITEM ANALYSIS (ASIA) REPORTS

Appendix A:

Guided Missile Flight Controller *

ENVIRONMENTAL TEST PLANS (ETPs) Appendix B:

Guided Missile Flight Controller *

Appendix C:

EMI Filter *

Appendix D:

DC Power Supply *

Appendix E:

BITE CCA *

Appendix F:

Roll CCA *

Appendix G:

Pitch CCA *

Appendix H:

Command CCA *

Appendix I:

Gyro CCA *

Appendix J:

AC Power Supply *

TEST REQUIREMENTS DOCUMENTS (TRDs) Appendix K:

Guided Missile Flight Controller *

Appendix L:

EMI Filter *

Appendix M:

DC Power Supply *

Appendix N:

BITE CCA *

Appendix O:

Roll CCA *

Appendix P:

Pitch CCA *

Appendix Q:

Command CCA*

Appendix R:

Gyro CCA *

Appendix S:

AC Power Supply *

MISCELLANEOUS DOCUMENTS

Appendix T:

Sample Size Analysis

* Separately Bound Documents

1 INTRODUCTION

1.2 Overview

Original planning for the Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) included provisions for a 10-year program life. As with most Department of Defense Weapon Systems, the ALCM has remained in the active inventory for many years beyond the original planned life without a firm end of life definition. Currently, the projected system life is planned through the year 2030. The Cruise Missile Aging & Surveillance (A&S) Program outlined in this document provides an orderly approach to analyzing age sensitive electro-mechanical devices and delivering statistically significant trend assessments on related parametric data thus determining service life expectancies for the age sensitive hardware.

The Cruise Missile A&S Program was initially modeled after the A&S Program developed and successfully executed for the electro-mechanical devices that are contained in the Re-Entry Vehicles associated with the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles. The Cruise Missile A&S Program was initiated on the Nuclear Weapon Sub-System (NWSS) for the Advanced Cruise Missile beginning in 1999. That program included testing on the Arm/Disarm Devices, Impact Sensors, Warhead Mounts and Separation Switches. In 2008 the ACM A&S Program was halted due to deactivation of the weapon system and the residual specialized A&S test equipment was delivered in place to use as the backbone for the ALCM A&S development program for the ALCM NWSS hardware, (i.e., Warhead Arming Device, Separation Switch and Impact Sensors). On-going Program Office management plans have included incorporating A&S tests for additional flight critical components in the ALCM as time and budget allow.

This management plan has been developed in concert with the addition of the ALCM Guidance Missile Flight Controller (GMFC) and its 8 subassemblies, commonly referred to as Shop Replaceable Units (SRUs), into the ALCM A&S Program. The GMFC was designed with a Service Life Requirement (SLR) of 10 years. This design goal was satisfied through analysis and testing during the production of the hardware. As the system gets older, the electro-mechanical devices in the components will tend to age. This aging can be attributed to fair wear-and-tear, applied environments that the installed units are exposed to, the materials used in manufacture, and/or the original manufacturing and assembly processes.

In those instances where age related degradation can impact the safety or reliability of the force, it becomes necessary to monitor the aging trends to allow timely retrofit actions. The Aging & Surveillance (A&S) Program is the depot test program that has been devised to monitor age sensitive parameters on electro-mechanical components.

The decision to conduct an A&S Program on the ALCM GMFC and its subassemblies was based on an orderly approach that addressed the following minimum requirements:

a) Component Sensitivity Analysis: A study was accomplished to determine the sensitivity to aging and the relative impact on mission performance for each sensitive parameter. This study is referred to as an Age Sensitivity Item Analysis (ASIA). The results of the study have been documented in an ASIA Report for the GMFC. The ASIA Report for the GMFC covers both the GMFC and its SRUs.

b) Identification of Test Candidates: The results of the ASIA were used to determine which subassemblies were valid test candidates.

c) Definition of Environmental Test Levels: Typical A&S tests include subjecting the component under test to environments such as shock, vibration, high/low temperature, and acceleration profiles. The test levels for the ALCM GMFC components were determined based on functional requirements, Stockpile to Target Sequence limits, specifications, and programmatic limitations. Environmental test levels were documented in Environmental Test Plans (ETPs) for each component.

d) Determination of Sample Size and Sample Source: Statistical considerations, coupled with the test conditions, number of test conditions, and cost effectiveness, provided the rational for determining the sampling size and test frequency. The source for samples was recommended based on the test conditions and logistic impacts.

e) Definition of the Test Requirements: The hardware test configuration, along with the component test parameters, was established and documented in Test Requirements Documents (TRDs) for the GMFC and for each GMFC SRU.

The overall viability of conducting an ALCM GMFC A&S Program has been established. The test equipment has been designed and is currently being modified or fabricated. The database required to store the parameter measurements has been established and the data analysis techniques and engineering criteria for evaluating the Service Life Estimate have been developed and integrated.

1.3 Scope

In light of the current system life projection to the year 2030, the management team responsible for the ALCM A&S Program will likely see several changes in personnel. This plan has been designed to preserve the technical approach taken to define the program requirements, define the necessary implementation tasks (i.e., test equipment design, fabrication and installation), and outline the management requirements for successful execution of the program.

2 REFERENCE DOCUMENTS

The following documents are for reference and guidance in the development of the A&S Program:

1. MIL-STD-1543

Reliability Program Requirements for

15 July 1974

Space and Missile Systems

2. MIL-STD-785B

Reliability Program for System and Equipment

15 September 1980 Development and Production

PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT & IMPLEMENTATION

2.2 Background

The initial Cruise Missile A&S Program for ACM was developed and conducted by E-Spectrum Technologies, Inc (AES/ESTI) under United States Air Force contract F41608-98-C-0485. Consulting agreements and subcontracting actions were established to acquire such specialties as “materials expertise and statistical sample size analyses.” During the development of the ACM A&S Program ESTI worked closely with the Nuclear Weapons Directorate located at Kelly AFB to design, develop and deliver a suite of equipment to assess the remaining life of the age sensitive components of ACM Nuclear Weapon Sub System (NWSS) components. The equipment included in this suite comprises a major test complex.

As a result of a 1995 Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC) decision, Kelly Air Force Base, Texas, was realigned and the San Antonio Air Logistics Center, including the Air Force maintenance depot, was closed. At that time the Cruise Missile Nuclear Weapons Support workload transferred to Kirtland AFB NM, OO-ALC UT and Tinker AFB, OC-ALC OK. Throughout the transfer of workload, ESTI maintained the ACM A&S Test Complex at their facility in San Antonio. Testing at the facility continued on an annual basis to assess the remaining life of the age sensitive ACM NWSS components.

AES/ESTI was awarded contract FA8222-05-D-0001-SD02 to establish and sustain effective and efficient managed life cycle support of the Cruise Missile Sustainment Squadron’s Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) laboratory test programs necessary to support and sustain cruise missile weapon systems. One of its many tasks required ESTI to develop service life estimates and service life extensions based on annual tests of component samples. Upon contract award, work began immediately to upgrade the A&S Test Complex to permit the testing and assessment of age sensitive ALCM NWSS components. The A&S Test Complex upgrade was completed and the annual test cycles and subsequent Service Life Projections were issued.

In 2013 the USAF competed and awarded contract FA8222-12-D-0001-SD01 to continue the work started on FA8222-05-D-0001-SD02. One initial task under the new –SD01 contract was the development of a viable A&S test program for the ALCM GMFC. This Program Management Plan has been developed and delivered to support the ALCM GMFC A&S Test Program. This document along with the A&S Program Management Plan for the ALCM NWSS provides the oversight and general direction for the ALCM A&S test program.

2.3 Program Schedule

Unfunded tasks that can be activated under the current contract will allow for the initial baseline tests as well as the first year test cycle to be completed during the FY15 test period. The present development schedule for the GMFC and its Shop Replaceable Units (SRUs) will deliver in place all of the hardware, software and procedures necessary to conduct the tests, acquire and store the data and prepare for the second year test cycle. Additional tests can be developed for other electro-mechanical devices in the weapon system as funds and requirements are aligned. Those development efforts will be monitored on individual schedules, while subsequent test cycles for those components can be co-joined with the existing test program.

Table 1 shows the projected FY2015 ALCM GMFC A&S program milestone schedule.

Table 1. ALCM FY2015 GMFC A&S Program Milestone Schedule

2.4 Technical Approach

The technical approach to the development of the ALCM A&S Program for the GMFC and its SRUs consisted of predefined analysis tasks and implementation tasks. The analysis tasks resulted in the development of the Age Sensitivity Item Analysis Report, the Environmental Test Plans, the Test Requirements Documents, a Final Report, and this Program Management Plan. The results of the analysis tasks were used to complete the implementation portion of the program. The major elements of these tasks are described in the following paragraphs.

2.4.1 Hardware Analysis Tasks

a. Analytical assessment through development of the Age Sensitivity Item Analysis to determine aging characteristics and mechanisms associated with the components.

b. Selection of candidates to be included in the A&S Program.

c. Establishment of the test requirements to include test parameters, test limits, test environments, sample source/size, and test schedules.

2.4.2 Implementation Tasks

a. Design, develop and fabricate new test equipment and support equipment, or modify existing/available equipment as required to implement the test requirements.

b. Perform Installation, Checkout and Demonstration (IC&D) of the new and/or modified equipment via acceptance testing.

c. Conduct tests on components to validate and verify the capability.

d. Develop the database required to assess and predict the individual service life for each component.

3 AGE SENSITIVITY ITEM ANALYSIS (ASIA)

The approach outlined in section 3.3 used the results of the ASIA as the first step in establishing test candidates. The ASIA identified which components were considered likely to degrade over time. The A&S test program will measure the performance degradation of these components. The goal of the program is to detect degradation early enough to allow sufficient lead-time for retrofit/replacement actions prior to decreased safety or reliability of the weapon.

Appendix A contains the ASIA Report, which details the analysis approach and the results of the analysis for the GMFC and its SRUs.

3.2 Test Candidates

The Executive Summary of the ASIA contains recommendations for including the GMFC in the A&S Program. An orderly approach for tracking each A&S candidate item has been established through the assignment of Major Unit Identification Numbers (MUINs). The ALCM MUIN assignments to date are as follows:

Warhead Arming Device

MUIN 101

Impact Sensor Assembly

MUIN 102

Rotary Switch

MUIN 103

GMFC

MUIN 104

3.3 Test Parameters

The GMFC ASIA Report contains a listing of the parameters recommended for inclusion in the A&S Program along with the rational for each recommendation. Two types of test parameters are included in the A&S Program. Those types are defined as Critical and Non-Critical. Critical parameters include all age sensitive test parameters that could cause mission failure or injury to personnel due to age related degradation. Non-Critical parameters include test parameters that may affect mission performance, but will not cause mission failure or injury to personnel. Non-Critical parameters are captured to assist in troubleshooting anomalous conditions.

4 ENVIRONMENTAL TEST PLANS (ETPs)

ETPs document the test approach required for each component identified as age sensitive in the Age Sensitivity Item Analysis (ASIA). Detailed assessment of each failure mode has resulted in a comprehensive description of the test conditions and test level environments, along with a test description, for each critical parameter. The ETPs for the GMFC and each of its 8 SRUs are provided as Appendices B through J.

5 TEST REQUIREMENTS DOCUMENTS (TRDs)

TRDs have been developed for each component identified as age sensitive in the Age Sensitivity Item Analysis Report. The TRDs document the test equipment requirements for the specific components selected for test in the A&S Program. Combined, the ASIA and the Environmental Test Plan (ETP) detail the individual failure modes and test parameters associated with a given component. The individual TRDs treat each test parameter separately, while the complete TRD contains a composite set of requirements from which the necessary test equipment and software can be specified. The TRDs for the GMFC and each of its 8 SRUs are provided as Appendices K through S.

5.2 Test Configurations

The TRDs document the test item configuration requirements. Test conditions that call for levels of disassembly or intrusive maintenance actions have been detailed. Variances between the test configurations for the A&S tests and acceptance or functional tests have been identified.

5.3 A&S Test Classifications

Two basic environmental levels have been defined within the A&S Program, namely “ambient” and “hard”. The ambient level determines whether the aging environment (i.e., storage and periodic maintenance) affects the performance characteristics of the hardware. The hard environments include the application of vibration, shock, and/or temperature variation to determine if the hardware is capable of performing in a flight environment after being subjected to the aging environment. In some instances, a destructive tear down will be required to gain access the piece parts for test purposes. This destructive test is also classified as a hard environment. In the event an age out problem is detected, this dual level concept allows a comparison to determine if the problem is due to aging alone or if it is caused by the interactive effect of aging and the flight environment.

5.4 A&S Test Types

The two test classifications, namely ambient and hard, are further characterized by definition of the types of tests conducted within the classification. Five specific test types have been defined for the ALCM A&S Program. Baseline “A” Tests and Interval “B” Tests comprise the ambient classification, while three Comprehensive “C” Tests (C1, C2, and C3) fall within the hard environment classification.

5.4.1 Baseline “A” Tests

These tests are non-damaging tests that establish the health of each parameter of interest. The A Tests should be conducted at the earliest possible opportunity. In as much as the ALCM A&S Program development was started well after the production lines were shut down and the hardware was delivered to the Air Force, it is impossible to capture data at true time to (typically referred to as zero-time data). Therefore, the baseline should be established by testing the maximum number of samples available in the first test cycle. Section 7 discusses in detail the recommended sample size and source.

5.4.2 Interval “B” Tests

These tests are non-damaging tests that are made on dedicated A&S units. Section 7 discusses in detail the recommended sample size, source, and test frequency. These dedicated units should be stored in a controlled environment that emulates the aging environment of the operational force. Section 8 details the recommended storage environments. A comparison of the cumulative B test data from year to year with the previously established baseline will determine if the aging environment is causing degradation.

5.4.3 Comprehensive “C” Tests

Comprehensive tests include pre-environment tests (C1), tests during environments (C2), and post-environment tests (C3). Comprehensive tests are designed to include the baseline parameters as well as functional performance parameters. The Environmental Test Plans for each component define the test environments for each parameter.

6 SAMPLING

In 1999, a sample size analysis for Advance Cruise Missile components determined that statistical “power” analysis could be used to determine the number of A&S samples that should be tested in order to predict forward 72 months with 90% confidence that less than 10% of the force would be affected by an aging problem. Although the sample size analysis was performed on the ACM NWSS components (i.e., A/DD, Separation Switch, and Impact Sensor), the results of the analysis remain fundamentally sound and can be applied to the ALCM NWSS and GMFC components. Not only do the ALCM components serve equivalent functions as their ACM counterparts, but they also have similar reliability and service life requirements. ALCM component A&S sample sizes have been derived directly from the ACM analysis. See the Sample Size Analysis Report for details (Appendix T). It is worth noting here that the basic results sample size analysis were directly in line with the sample size requirements levied on the Re-Entry Vehicle component A&S tests that were the original model for the Cruise Missile A&S tests.

Based on engineering judgment and past experience, the following recommendations are made with regard to initial sample sizes. Since a programmatic decision has been made to conduct only non-destruct tests on the ALCM components, the sample sizes identified here include quantities which would not support destructive testing.

6.2 Test Frequency

An annual test schedule is required to preserve the 72-month lead-time for preventive maintenance actions.

6.3 Sample Size and Sample Source

Based on engineering judgment, ESTI recommended that the sample sizes for each test type should reflect the recommendations outlined in the ETPs.

6.3.1 GMFC

Three types of samples are recommended for the GMFC, namely dedicated samples, field return samples, and contingency spares.

6.4 Additional Set Aside Requirements

In addition to the samples required for dedicated hardware, pipeline assets, and contingency spares, several other considerations must be made to assure that all A&S Program requirements are satisfied.

6.4.1 Installation and Checkout (I&CO) Samples

During the A&S development effort, “golden” units were required as test beds for developing, validating, and verifying the automatic test equipment. These assets will be used throughout the A&S Program to perform system self tests and to aid in troubleshooting anomalies. A Program Office decision has resulted in a plan to set aside 4 GMFCs for I&CO use. Several of these assets will be destructively tested and dissected to meet program goals. The destructive tests on some of these samples along with the excessive test and handling that each of these 4 GMFCs will undergo will result require that none of them be returned to a serviceable condition. The 4 units identified for use as I&CO samples are, by serial number, 0945, 1292, 1456, and 2086.

7 SAMPLE STORAGE ENVIRONMENTS

The storage environments for the dedicated A&S samples are detailed in the Environmental Test Plan for the GMFC (the storage environments for the SRUs will be identical to those of the GMFC). Appendices B through J contain the ETPs. The dedicated A&S samples should be maintained in a clean environment. A detailed historical record should be maintained documenting the number and types of tests conducted on each sample. The GMFCs should be unpacked and neatly shelved. The following paragraphs highlight the overall requirements for GMFC storage environments.

7.2 GMFC Storage Environment

The recommended storage environment for the GMFCs represents approximations to the seasonal changes at the current Main Operating Bases (MOB 1 and MOB 2). That is, the recommended storage environment is 3 months at 70 degrees Fahrenheit, 3 months at 100 degrees Fahrenheit, 3 months at 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and 3 months at 0 degrees Fahrenheit. Since the missiles are desiccated and the GMFC is contained within the desiccated compartment, a constant 20% relative humidity is recommended. The weather stations at the MOBs provided monthly averages for both the temperature and humidity patterns. The following charts reflect the patterns for the MOBs.

Figure 1. MOB Temperature Comparison Chart

Figure 2. MOB Humidity Comparison Chart

8 TEST SCHEDULES

The test schedules recommended in the Environmental Test Plans have been reviewed and deemed appropriate by the Program Office. There are no destruct tests planned. Section 9.1 outlines the ETP recommended and actual planned test schedules.

8.2 Recommended/Planned Test Schedules

Technical discussion with the program office during the development effort led to firm planning numbers for the sample sizes for each component. The actual planning numbers under consideration for the first 10 years for the GMFC tests are included in Table 2.

Similarly, discussions under consideration for the GMFC SRU tests for the first 10 years are presented in Table 3. There are no contingency spares or pipeline assets available at the SRU level, so those test candidates are not applicable. All of the SRU samples will be test candidates that are removed from the GMFCs selected for each particular test year. Although Table 3 shows a projected sample size of 6 assets per year, these numbers reflect the total for each SRU and given that the GMFC has 8 SRUs the total SRU test program will include 48 SRU tests.

Additional test candidate SRUs could become available if the contingency and/or pipeline spare GMFCs were disassembled. This effort would necessitate a repair of the units prior to placing them back in a serviceable condition, as the EMI seals on the GMFC covers would have to be removed and replaced at the depot. If a decision is made to accept this repair requirement, the total number of SRU test samples in the first year would be increased by 14 for each SRU type (an additional 112 SRU tests). The final decision on this issue will have to be made by the start of the first test cycle.

Dedicated

A&S

Samples

Assets Field

Returned

Samples Total

Number

Samples

GROUP 1:

2 ea GMFCs

A B

B

B

GROUP 2:

B

B

B

GROUP 3:

B

B

B

10 ea

4 ea

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

Table 2. Recommended/Planned GMFC Test Program for the First 10 Test Cycles

Dedicated

A&S

Samples

Assets Field

Returned

Samples Total

Number

Samples

GROUP 1:

2 ea SRU

B

B

GROUP 2:

B

B

B

GROUP 3:

B

B

B

Not Applicable

Not Applicable

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

Table 3. Recommended/Planned GMFC SRU Test Program for the First 10 Test Cycles

9 DATA ANALYSIS AND SERVICE LIFE ESTIMATE

Following each test cycle, the parametric data for each test parameter must be added to the assessment database for analysis and service life predictions. The database is integrated with a software program that was specified for use in performing the data analysis. The Cruise Missile A&S test station control computer is also used to provide long-term data storage. A Cruise Missile Data Analysis program has been developed by ESTI to conduct the post-test data analysis and trend analysis required to establish service life estimates.

9.2 Methodology

A&S data is captured by automated test equipment and/or manual data entry at the time the measurement is made. The Cruise Missile test station controller stores the data files to a pre-defined file structure that is used by the Data Analysis program. This is a convenient technique, as the transferred data files require no intermediate (manual) conversion steps. The methods and data formats for transfers were defined in conjunction with the original development of the Cruise Missile A&S automated test equipment.

A Major Unit Identification Number (MUIN) has been assigned for each NWSS and GMFC component type in the A&S program. The A&S Program will take samples of each MUIN and perform the A&S measurements identified in the associated Test Requirements Document (TRD). This will provide measurement data that will be statistically analyzed in order to develop parameters used to look for aging trends and predict remaining service life.

A separate statistical analysis will be run for each A&S parameter to estimate MUIN service life based only on that single parameter. A curve will be fit to the measured data, then the curve will be compared to the limits specified for that measurement as identified in the TRD. The results of the analyses for individual measured parameters will be combined to establish a Service Life Estimate (SLE) for the MUIN.

Test data for each parameter identified in the TRD will be collected in the A&S database after each test. The measurement data will be entered in the A&S database with appropriate vendor codes, lot numbers, acceptance dates, and test-type codes. The additional test information and codes will be used to extract data sets to be used in the statistical analysis. The database includes measurement limits (upper and/or lower physical limits) per specifications noted in the TRD for each A&S parameter.

A relational database has been created to maintain the A&S measurement data that will be used for the statistical analysis. The database has been implemented for the 3 ALCM NWSS components and the measurements defined in the TRDs. Flexibility has been designed in for future use of the database and Data Analysis software for changes in measurements data, additional components, other A&S programs, and enhancement of the analysis methods. During the first 3 test years for the GMFC and its SRUs the database and Analysis software will be adapted to include these data sets for statistical analysis purposes.

A&S image files (photographs, graphs, and similar historical data) will be maintained as separate files. File naming conventions for A&S data follow the names specified in the TRDs so that consistency is maintained. The image files will be archived on removable media.

9.3 Statistical Analysis

The standard sequence of A&S data analysis is as follows:

· Select individual or grouped data sets from the database for analysis.

· Establish validity and integrity of test data. Display plots of data points, linear regression line, confidence region limits, and parameter limits. Identify outlier data points that might be handled differently in the analysis (but not deleted from the database).

· Perform hypothesis test for significance of slope of regression line or of correlation coefficient.

· Perform goodness-of-fit test of regression, i.e., determine whether residuals are normally distributed with zero mean and homogeneous variance.

· If necessary for the analysis, perform data transformations to correct lack of linear fit (e.g., logarithmic, exponential, or reciprocal).

· Apply non-parametric U-Test when sample size is small (i.e., n1 or n2 is less than 30).

9.4 Service Life Estimate

The SLE is defined as the lesser of (1) the point in time that the 90% confidence bound intersects the individual parameter specification limit or (2) the Service Life Requirement (SLR).

During the development of the ACM A&S program, it was determined that statistical “power” analysis was required to determine the number of A&S samples that should be tested in order to predict forward 72 months with 90% confidence that less than 10% of the force will be affected by an aging problem. Refer to the Sample Size Analysis Report for details (Appendix J). The issue was that the required A&S sample size could not be validated until sufficient measurement data has been collected to characterize the variation of the measurements. The power analysis could be performed for at least the first few years of the A&S program. This would coincide nicely with the need to gather at least three years worth of data prior to assessing the SLE. However, the sample sizes defined as the initial ACM requirements match exactly with the sample requirements defined for the program life for the Re-Entry Vehicle A&S Program. Therefore, the annual power analysis will be forgone and the sample size will remain constant. Based on similarities, the ALCM A&S Program will retain this same ideology.

The following types of engineering tasks will be included in the data analysis and reporting:

· Determine SLR, where SLR is the age of the oldest component plus 72 months.

· Investigate failures in A&S Program, Service STAR, and flight tests and field returns.

· Screen parameters for correlation with age for linear SLE less than SLR.

· Determine pooled, vendor, or lot grouping by physical differences in hardware or statistical differences in data.

· Test screen parameters for compliance with linear requirements.

· Make statistical adjustments as appropriate for specific non-compliance.

· Determine the MUIN SLE.

9.5 Reports

The Data Analysis software program provides the following standard reports:

· Hard copy of any graph

· Residuals analysis results

· Tabular hard copy of A&S parameter data

9.6 Data Backups

The Data Analysis system includes software and hardware to perform periodic back-up of the A&S database. Backups are made to removable disk media.

10 OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION FLOW

As requirements are defined, additional ALCM flight critical hardware can be included in the Cruise Missile A&S Program for long-term assessment. Funding constraints can force the development of the additional A&S test capability into a multi-phased effort. Due to this phased effort, an implementation approach has been designed which will allow for development to continue, as funding is available, while completing annual testing as the capability is delivered. The following paragraphs outline the implementation flow.

10.2 Implementation Approach

As a result of any further phased development, the implementation of the new A&S program will follow the flow outlined in Figure 3. Task orders will be issued to ESTI for program development as funds allow. ESTI will deliver the Data Analysis Capability per task order. ESTI will store and control the assets set aside for the A&S Program. As test capability is completed, ESTI will conduct annual tests, coordinating with OC-ALC and OO-ALC to pre-position replacement hardware and gather test samples.

The existing depot capability includes all of the technical data required to remove and replace the selected samples (returning the missile to operational status) and then package the samples for shipment. The likely source for sample selection is the Analytical Condition Inspection (ACI) Program. The A&S samples can be removed at the end of the ACI task (just prior to re-assembly and the outgoing Level I test).

The MOBs activities will not change using this approach. They will continue to process missiles for the normal ACI Program.

At the end of the A&S Program Development effort, a full operational test capability will be available.

10.3 Intermediate Level A&S Activities

With the implementation approach outlined above, the depot (OO-ALC) activities are the only intermediate level activities associated with the A&S Program. These activities are limited to removal and replacement of selected samples, and packaging the selected samples for shipment, and conducting minor restoration of assets tested in the A&S Program (i.e., replacement of screws removed for leak tests, repainting surfaces, replacement of gaskets, etc).

10.4 Test Level Activities

During the development period, ESTI will conduct the test level maintenance activities. Figure 4 shows the test level activities in the form of a block diagram.

Figure 3. ALCM A&S Implementation Flow

Figure 4. Test Level Activities

10.5 Implementation Tasks

10.5.1 Program Office

The Program Office involvement in maintaining the Cruise Missile A&S Program includes coordinating with the Cruise Missile maintenance group at OO-ALC, contractor oversight, budgeting, and contractual task initiation. Negotiated options on an existing DESP III contract are in place to cover sample storage, conduct the annual tests, maintain the test complex, and conduct data analysis tasks through December 31, 2015. Additional contracting actions will be required to extend the efforts beyond that date.

In addition to managing the task orders, the Program Office will be responsible for the data analysis and Service Life Estimates. Although the contracted tasks include conducting the data analysis and deriving the SLEs, the Program Office has the final authority to establish the annual Service Life Estimates.

10.5.2 Contractor

As defined by specific task orders, ESTI will develop the necessary test capabilities, provide for sample storage, conduct annual tests, maintain the test complex equipment, and participate in failure analysis/refurbishment of samples.

Throughout the development effort, ESTI will be conducting the annual tests, therefore contractor format test procedures are considered both adequate for use and less expensive to develop and maintain. These procedures will be adapted to technical orders at a later date, if deemed necessary.

During the conduct of the annual testing, anomalies will likely occur that will interfere with the program. These anomalies may be anything from a short delay due to equipment malfunction to a catastrophic failure of the test sample. An Anomaly Reporting and Failure Analysis Tracking System will be established to mitigate the impacts of the delays. Formal records will be established to document anomalous conditions, resolutions, and authorized deviations from established procedures.

11 ACRONYMS

A&S

Aging & Surveillance

ACI

Analytical Condition Inspection

ACM

Advanced Cruise Missile

ALCM

Air Launch Cruise Missile

WAD

Warhead Arming Device

ASIA

Age Sensitivity Item Analysis

ER

Event Report

ESTI

E-Spectrum Technologies, Incorporated

ETP

Environmental Test Plan

IC&D

Installation Checkout & Demonstration

MOB

Main Operating Base

MUIN

Major Unit Identification Number

NucWeapSEP

Nuclear Weapon System Evaluation Program

NW

Directorate of Nuclear Weapons

NWSS

Nuclear Weapon Sub-System

OC-ALC

Oklahoma City Air Logistic Center

OO-ALC

Ogden Air Logistic Center

SLE

Service Life Estimate

SLR

Service Life Requirement

TRD

Test Requirements Document

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