poll-youth_10_briefing_11-06-2006.ppt

December 2005 Youth Poll 10

Findings Presentation

Briefing Overview

Methodology and Sample

Methodology and Sample

Favorability and Knowledge of the Military

Overall Favorability of the Military Mean Favorability Ratings Those most likely to be favorable:

FAV1: Using all that you know or have heard about the U.S. Military, please rate the U.S. Military using a 10-point scale where 1 means VERY UNFAVORABLE and 10 means EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.

= significant change from previous poll

Favorability of Individual Services

FAV2: Using all that you know or have heard about the various branches of the U.S. Military, please rate each branch using a 10-point scale where 1 means VERY UNFAVORABLE and 10 means VERY FAVORABLE.

Mean Favorability Ratings

Favorability of Reserve Components

FAV3: Now, using all that you know or have heard, please rate the U.S. National Guard and Reserves using a 10-point scale where 1 means VERY UNFAVORABLE and 10 means EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.

Following the trend set by the Active Duty Services, favorability of the National Guard and Reserves is significantly down

Overall Favorability of the Military By Race/Ethnicity

FAV1: Using all that you know or have heard about the U.S. Military, please rate the U.S. Military using a 10-point scale where 1 means VERY UNFAVORABLE and 10 means EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.

Overall Knowledge of the Military Mean Knowledge Ratings Those most likely to be knowledgeable:

KW2: Please use a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means NOT AT ALL KNOWLEDGABLE and 10 means EXTREMELY KNOWLEDGABLE. Please tell me how knowledgeable you are about the U.S. Military.

Although still relatively low, self-reported knowledge of the Military has increased significantly since June 2005

Attitudes Toward Current Events and Economic Indicators

Current Events: Effect of the War on Terrorism Although attitudes have remained relatively stable, the War on Terrorism continues to have a very negative impact on youths’ decisions to join the Military

CUR9: Does the current situation with the War on Terrorism make you more likely or does it make you less likely to join the Military?

Current Events: Effect of the War on Terrorism An overwhelming 83% of Blacks and 72% of females report being less likely to join the Military as a result of the War on Terrorism

CUR9: Does the current situation with the War on Terrorism make you more likely or does it make you less likely to join the Military?

Percent “Less Likely to Join”

CUR10: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Bush Administration is using U.S. Military Forces? Would that be strongly or just somewhat?

Current Events: Approval of Bush Administration Handling of Foreign Affairs

Current Events: Approval of Bush Administration Use of U.S. Military Forces CUR10: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Bush Administration is using U.S. Military Forces? Would that be strongly or just somewhat?

Attitudes Toward Troops Being in Iraq Most likely to support the troops include:

CUR7: Do you support or oppose U.S. Military troops being in Iraq?

U.S. Military and Economic Conditions: Job Pay

Military Pays Better IND2: Are individuals more likely to have a good paying job in the Military, in a civilian job, or equally in both?

U.S. Military and Economic Conditions: Difficulty

Impossible/Very Difficult EMP5: How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?

U.S. Military and the Economy: Four Year Outlook

Better in 4 years IND3: Four years from now, do you think the economy will be better than, worse than, or about the same as it is today?

Note: Youth age 16-21

Future Plans and Propensity

Options After High School: Unaided

FPP1: What do you think you might be doing once you finish high school/college or in the next few years?

Consideration of Military

FPP15: Before we talked today, had you ever considered the possibility of joining the Military?

General Military Propensity By Gender

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

%Definitely/Probably Overall, youth propensity for joining the Military has remained statistically unchanged from six months ago

General Military Propensity

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

%Definitely/Probably

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

General Military Propensity: Males By Race/Ethnicity

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

General Military Propensity: Females

Female propensity has also remained relatively stable for all races/ethnicities

Composite Propensity for Active Duty Aggregate %Definitely/Probably* Comp1: How likely is it that you will be serving on Active Duty in the Army/Navy/Marine Corps/Air Force?

* Coast Guard is not included in the Composite Propensity measure

Males

%Definitely/Probably Comp1: How likely is it that you will be serving on Active Duty in the Army/Navy/Marine Corps/Air Force?

* Coast Guard is not included in the Composite Propensity measure

Females

%Definitely/Probably Comp1: How likely is it that you will be serving on Active Duty in the Army/Navy/Marine Corps/Air Force?

* Coast Guard is not included in the Composite Propensity measure

Composite Active Duty Propensity

%Definitely/Probably

Comp1: How likely is it that you will be serving on Active Duty in the Army/Navy/Marine Corps/Air Force?

Composite Reserve Propensity

Comp2: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves/National Guard?

Overall composite Reserve propensity has remained relatively stable for both males and females

Composite Reserve Propensity

Comp2: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves/National Guard?

Composite Reserve propensity across racial/ethnic groups did not change significantly since the last measure in June 2005

Behaviors, Attitudes, and Global Subjective Norms

Pre-Enlistment Behaviors BIN1: Now I would like to talk about some things you may have done while considering post-high school options. In the past year have you?

Although they were just as likely to be contacted by a recruiter, Black youth were less likely to visit a military website than were Whites or Hispanics

Attitude Toward Behavior ATT 2/3: Imagine you have just decided to join the U.S. Military. How would you rate this decision? Please use a 7-point scale where 1 means Extremely Foolish/Extremely Harmful and 7 means Extremely Beneficial/Extremely Supportive.

Proportion answering 5, 6, or 7

Global Subjective Norms SUBG1 (Supportive): Think about the people who have the most influence on the decisions you make.Using a 7-point scale where 1 means Not at all Supportive and 7 means Extremely Supportive, what would they think of your decision if you told them you have just decided to join the U.S. Military?

SUBG2 (Good): Think about the people who have the most influence on the decisions you make.Using a 7-point scale where 1 means Extremely Bad and 7 means Extremely Good, what would they think of your decision if you told them you have just decided to join the U.S. Military?

Proportion answering 5, 6, or 7

Predicting Intention to Join

Purpose

Especially useful because:

The Theory of Reasoned Action was also used in Youth Polls 6 & 7 Supported the contributions of three primary TRA predictors

Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980)

Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) Person’s evaluation of the outcomes associated with performing the behavior Confidence person has that they could successfully perform behavior Social pressure person feels to perform or not perform the behavior Attitudes Self- Efficacy Subjective Norms Intention Behavior

How has TRA been used in past research?

1 Ingram, Cope, Harju, & Wuensch, 2000; 2 Hom & Hulin, 1981; 3 Vincent, PePlau, & Hill, 1998; 4 Strader & Katz, 1990

Overall Results: Intention to Join and Pre-Enlistment Behavior .02, ns C2(3, N = 3228) = 157.2, p < .05, CFI = .97, RMSEA = .13. All paths are statistically significant, p < .05. R square for intention was .38. Pre-enlistment behavior was the sum of affirmative responses to items BIN1E and BIN1G.

.19 .38 .21 Subjective Norms Attitudes Self- Efficacy Intention Pre-Enlistment Behavior

Examining Environmental Predictors of Propensity C2(20, N = 3228) = 750.1, p < .05, CFI = .93 RMSEA = .11. All paths are statistically significant at the .05 level unless otherwise indicated. R square for intention was .39. Current events items referred to approval of the current administration’s handling of foreign affairs and use of the military and the effect of the War on Terrorism on one’s likelihood of joining the Military.

Intention Attitudes Self- Efficacy Subjective Norms .01, ns .17 .37 .15 .07 .21 Pre-Enlistment Behavior .07 Employment Difficulty Current Events Good Job in Military

For males, C2(20, N = 1577) = 398.3, p < .05, CFI = .94, RMSEA = .11. For females, C2(20, N = 1651) = 285.2, p < .05, CFI = .94, RMSEA = .09. All paths are statistically significant at the .05 level unless otherwise indicated. R square values for intention were .39 (males) and .33 (females).

Attitudes Self- Efficacy Subjective Norms .21 = M .18 = F Pre-Enlistment Behavior .09 = M .03, ns = F .27 = M .37 = F .22 = M .14= F .00, ns = M .02, ns = F .18 = M .15 = F .07 = M .08 = F Employment Difficulty Current Events Good Job in Military

Prediction of Propensity

For Whites, C2(20, N = 1449) = 353.6, p < .05, CFI = .94, RMSEA = .11. For Blacks, C2(20, N = 676) = 115.5, p < .05, CFI = .93, RMSEA = .08. For Hispanics, C2(20, N = 779) = 254.5, p < .05, CFI = .89, RMSEA = .12. All paths are significant at the .05 level unless otherwise indicated. R square values for intention were .44 (W), .33 (B), and .37 (H).

Attitudes Self- Efficacy Subjective Norms Pre-Enlistment Behavior .01, ns = W .03, ns = B .03, ns = H .14 = W .21 = B .17 = H .37 = W .44 = B .40 = H .16 = W .11, ns = B .15 = H .10 = W .02, ns = B .08 = H .28 = W .13 = B .17 = H .05 = W .28 = B .11 = H Employment Difficulty Current Events Good Job in Military

Prediction of Propensity

Well- Being Skill Development Patriotic Adventure Specific Attitudes and Intention to Join Figures reported above are zero-order correlations. *p < .05 6Based on moderated multiple regression predicting intention from attitudes and race/ethnicity.

Intention to Join Intention to Join Intention to Join White Black Hispanic .34* .27* .27* White Black Hispanic .15* .14* .11* White Black Hispanic .18* .14* .16*

Specific Attitudes and Intention to Join Notes: R square for the final equation was .10. The hierarchical multiple regression analysis was repeated with different predictor orderings, and results were similar across analyses. The analysis was also conducted separately for White, Black, and Hispanic groups in Youth Polls 10 and 7, and results were similar.

Regression Analysis Predicting Intention to Join the Military from Specific Associations

Associations Between Well-Being and Military Service Mean Association Ratings for Well-Being Items by Race/Ethnicity BEH: Using a 7-point scale where one means extremely unlikely and seven means extremely likely, I would like you to tell me how likely it is that joining the U.S. military would help one of your students/a youth you know/your child to… Youth Poll 10 Youth Poll 7

Based on Bonferroni comparisons for ANOVA

Over time, all:

Associations Between Skill Development and Military Service Mean Association Ratings for Skill Development Items by Race/Ethnicity Youth Poll 10 Youth Poll 7

BEH: Using a 7-point scale where one means extremely unlikely and seven means extremely likely, I would like you to tell me how likely it is that joining the U.S. military would help one of your students/a youth you know/your child to…

See previous notes for ANOVA over time: ns for skill development items overall and by race/eth groups

Associations Between Patriotic Adventure and Military Service Mean Association Ratings for Skill Development Items by Race/Ethnicity Youth Poll 10 Youth Poll 7

BEH: Using a 7-point scale where one means extremely unlikely and seven means extremely likely, I would like you to tell me how likely it is that joining the U.S. military would help one of your students/a youth you know/your child to…

See two slides back for ANOVA table. Changes over time were ns except for “experience adventure” overall and for black youth only.

Self-Efficacy Overall, propensed youth are significantly more confident that they can complete tasks related to military service than non-propensed youth

% Responding Probably Yes/Definitely Yes SELF1: Now I am going to read you a list of activities. As I read each one, please tell me how confident you are that you could do this. How confident are you that you could (INSERT ITEM)? Would you say…(1-Definitely No; 2-Probably No; 3-Maybe Yes, Maybe No; 4-Probably Yes; 5-Definitely Yes)

Self-Efficacy: Change Over Time Youths’ self-efficacy regarding succeeding in a highly structured environment decreased significantly between Youth Poll 7 and Youth Poll 10

SELF1: Now I am going to read you a list of activities. As I read each one, please tell me how confident you are that you could do this. How confident are you that you could (INSERT ITEM)? Would you say…(1-Definitely No; 2-Probably No; 3-Maybe Yes, Maybe No; 4-Probably Yes; 5-Definitely Yes)

Self-Efficacy: By Race/Ethnicity

Generally, Black youths’ self-efficacy for succeeding in the Military is lower than Whites’ or Hispanics’

SELF1: Now I am going to read you a list of activities. As I read each one, please tell me how confident you are that you could do this. How confident are you that you could (INSERT ITEM)? Would you say…(1-Definitely No; 2-Probably No; 3-Maybe Yes, Maybe No; 4-Probably Yes; 5-Definitely Yes)

Reexamining Predictors of Propensity C2(25, N = 3228) = 1327.0, p < .05, CFI = .89 RMSEA = .13. All paths are statistically significant at the .05 level. R square for intention was .35. This model and the previous model were compared by conducting chi-square difference tests relative to a third model with norms-attitudes and norms-intention links.

Intention Attitudes Self- Efficacy Subjective Norms .48 .19 .37 .15 .07 .21 Pre-Enlistment Behavior .07 Employment Difficulty Current Events Good Job in Military

Subjective Norms Average Social Support Female youth expect less support from their fathers and friends and more support from teachers for joining the Military than do males

SUBJ: Please use a 7-point scale where 1 means “Extremely Unsupportive” and 7 means “Extremely Supportive.” How supportive would (INSERT ITEM) be if you decided to join the U.S. military?

Subjective norms generally decreased among males between Youth Poll 7 and Youth Poll 10

SUBJ: Please use a 7-point scale where 1 means “Extremely Unsupportive” and 7 means “Extremely Supportive.” How supportive would (INSERT ITEM) be if you decided to join the U.S. military?

Males, females

Average Social Support Black youth expect considerably less social support for joining the Military than White youth

SUBJ: Please use a 7-point scale where 1 means “Extremely Unsupportive” and 7 means “Extremely Supportive.” How supportive would (INSERT ITEM) be if you decided to join the U.S. military?

Based on MANOVAs for sex and race_eth

Key Findings

Key Findings: Favorability and Knowledge of the Military

Key Findings: Current Events and Economic Indicators

Key Findings: Future Plans and Propensity Joining the Military continues to be placed below school and work as a viable future choice after finishing high school

Key Findings: Predicting Propensity to Join Relationships between variables indicated that attitudes and self-efficacy are positively related to youths’ intention to join the Military

The favorability of norms, attitudes and self-efficacy regarding military enlistment generally decreased between Youth Poll 7 and Youth Poll 10

UNKNOWN-0.bin