adtrack_12_air-force-presentation_06-20-2006.ppt

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Prepared for:

Air Force

June 20, 2006

Advertising & Imagery Tracking Study For The US Armed Services

Overview Of Wave #12 Results (Jan. – Mar., 2006)

DoD Advertising Tracking Study Wave 12 (Jan-Mar 2006)

Presentation Overview

Objectives and Methodology
Potential Recruits: Key Findings

Ad Recall and Reactions Propensity to Serve Ad Slogan Recall and Reactions Symbol Recognition Event Sponsorship Website Usage and Reactions Imagery Summary Influencers: Key Findings

A Broader Context – Current Situation Likelihood To Recommend Knowledge Levels Belief Statements Discussions About Future Military Careers Imagery Summary Appendix: Additional Data

Objectives and Methodology

Study Objectives

Ad Awareness and Reaction

Track awareness of and reactions to the ad campaigns (and ad slogans, websites, events and symbols) of the various branches of the Military and JAMRS Are the ads being seen, and are they resonating?

Perceptions of The Military (and Specific Branches)

Track perceptions of the various military branches (their “imagery”) What are the imagery strengths and weaknesses?

Propensity (To Join or Recommend Joining)

Relate most aspects of the study to interest in joining (among Youth) and likelihood of encouraging others to join (among Influencers)

Methodology

Targets

Potential recruits aged 15-21

6,000 annually (1,500 per quarter)
50% females and 50% males

Influencers of youth aged 12-21

3,000 annually (750 per quarter)
Moms, dads, grandparents, and other influencers (e.g., teachers, coaches)
Interview Method

Telephone (national random sample) for 25% of Youth and 50% of Influencers Online panels (national) for 75% of Youth and 50% of Influencers Note: Additional details on Methodology can be found in the Appendix.

JAMRS contracted with a new data collection vendor in Spring 2006.
Pilot study confirms that change in methodology will not affect trends.
Internet/Telephone

For the first 3 years, the study gathered data for Youth and Influencer modules using RDD telephone sample and opt-in Internet panel.

Starting in May 2006, the study moved to Internet only data collection, using a probability-based sample.

Sample sizes will increase for Influencer and Reserve modules:

Influencer sample increased from 3,000 to 4,500 per year (1,125 per quarter).

Reserve/Guard module increased from 2,000 to 3,000 per year (750 per quarter).

Youth module sample size will remain at 6,000 per year (1,500 per quarter).

Change in methodology does not affect results reported in this deck

Timing and Reporting

A copy of the Briefing available anytime on the study’s website: www.dmrenadtracking.org Quarterly fielding and reporting

Field PeriodReporting
Wave 1 (April-June 2003) - LaunchAugust 2003
Wave 2 (July –Sept 2003)Nov-Dec 2003
Wave 3 (Oct-Dec 2003)Jan-Feb 2004
Wave 4 (Jan-Mar 2004)April-May 2004
Wave 5 (April-June 2004)July-Aug 2004
Wave 6 (July-Sept 2004)Nov 2004
Wave 7 (Oct-Dec 2004)Feb-Mar 2005
Wave 8 (Jan-Mar 2005)April-May 2005
Wave 9 (April-June 2005)August 2005
Wave 10 (July-Sept 2005)Oct-Nov 2005
Wave 11 (Oct-Dec 2005)March 2006
Wave 12 (Jan-Mar 2006)
Wave 13 (May-June 2006)May -June 2006

Currently in field

Potential Recruits: Key Findings

Potential Recruits Ad Recall and Reactions

Seen, Read Or Heard Branch–Specific Ads First – No Description (Unaided)

Respondents were first asked “For which of the following have you seen, read or heard an advertisement in the past couple of months” – all branches were then read.

Second – With Description (Aided)

Those who did not recall seeing an ad were then prompted with a description of the ad (from each branch).

On-line respondents got a written description (same as telephone) and also one screen shot.

Methodology – Two Step Approach

Air Force Ad (One) Question wording Have you recently seen, read or heard any ads for the US Air Force that featured two police officers in a patrol car looking for someone? They find the boy hanging out on the street with a bunch of other kids. It turns out the cops are looking for the kid because he knows how to reboot their computer. Text on the screen says “We’ve been waiting for you.” Do you recall seeing, reading or hearing an ad like this in the past couple of months?

(Telephone and on-line) (On-line) Methodology – With Description Aided recall (Question 15A).

Air Force Ad (Two) Question wording Have you recently seen, read or heard any ads for the US Air Force that featured four snowboarders who get lost on a mountain. They all slow down and someone yells, ‘Where are we?” Another one pulls out a GPS tracking device, checks their location and yells back, “This way.” Text on the screen says, “We’ve been waiting for you.” Do you recall seeing, reading or hearing an ad like this in the past couple of months?

(Telephone and on-line) (On-line) Methodology – With Description Aided recall (Question 15B).

All Potential Recruits Propensed Combined recall levels were significantly higher among propensed youth than non-propensed youth.

Seen, Read or Heard Air Force Ad Unaided versus Aided Recall Not Propensed Unaided recall (Questions 3 and 4c) and Aided recall (Question 15A and 15B).

= significantly higher than other subgroup

Younger 15-17 % Yes with and without description - combined Seen, Read or Heard Air Force Ad Key Demographics

Air Force ad recall was higher among Men.
Air Force ad recall was higher among the older potential recruits.

Older 18-21 Unaided recall (Questions 3 and 4C) and Aided recall (Question 15A and 15B).

Seen, Read or Heard Air Force Ad Combined Recall Air Force ad recall significantly rose in Wave 10 and Wave 11 and has remained elevated in Wave 12.

Unaided recall (Questions 3 and 4C) and Aided recall (Question 15A and 15B).

= significant change from previous wave

Seen, Read or Heard Military Ad Combined Recall Army ad recall has consistently been the highest (around 80%) and Coast Guard ad awareness has consistently been the lowest (around 30%).

Unaided recall (Questions 3 and 4A-E) and Aided recall (Questions 7 – Army, 11 – Navy, 15 and 15b – Air Force, 19 – Marine Corps, and 23 – Coast Guard).

Wave 4
Jan-Mar04Wave 8
Jan-Mar05Wave 9
Apr-Jun 05Wave 10
Jul-Sep05Wave 11
Oct-Dec05Wave 12

Jan-Mar06

Army78%81%80%83%83%82%
Navy72%57%61%60%60%56%
Marine Corps74%72%71%75%56%58%
Air Force69%61%60%66%71%69%
Coast Guard33%30%29%31%29%31%

= significant change from previous wave shown

Air Force Ad Recall Without Description

TV

Magazine/newspaper Radio Internet Billboard or poster Letter/Brochure Movie theater Consistent with previous trends, most of the youth who recall Air Force ads (unaided) report seeing these ads on TV.

13. Thinking of all the ads for the AIR FORCE that you may have seen or heard in the past couple of months, did you see or hear any of these ads…

Wave 11 Oct-Dec05 Wave 8 Jan-Mar05 Wave 4 Jan-Mar04

82%84%84%
35%38%40%
36%34%32%
33%32%38%
33%32%-
23%23%24
17%15%-

from Wave 12

Air Force Ad Source: Trends Without Description Historical trends comparing Magazine, Internet, Radio, and TV are relatively stable, showing that most youth who recall Air Force ads (unaided) report seeing these ads on TV.

13. Thinking of all the ads for the AIR FORCE that you may have seen or heard in the past couple of months, did you see or hear any of these ads…

Ad Reaction Ad was interesting Ad made the Air Force seem like an appealing option for you Ad told you something new or different about the Air Force Ad made you interested in finding out more about the Air Force The majority of youth who saw an Air Force ad agreed that it was interesting.

14 (unaided) and 16 (aided). Thinking of this ad, please tell me if you agree or disagree with each of the following…

Wave 11
Oct-Dec05Wave 8

Jan-Mar05

79%83%
61%64%
34%31%
32%32%
37%40%
33%33%
26%26%
29%29%

Propensity to Serve

Propensity Explanation of change in propensity section

Previously, there were two sets of propensity numbers being reported in JAMRS briefings:

DoD Youth Polls - developed to provide population estimates for attitudes towards and interest in military service that can be broken out by gender and race/ethnicity simultaneously.

DoD Ad Tracking Study - developed to measure advertising metrics. Results are not generalizeable to the population.

Propensity is measured in Ad Tracking as a crossing variable and to add additional break-downs for results.
To minimize confusion and maintain consistency across JAMRS research products, propensity numbers reported in this section are from the DoD Youth Polls.

General Military Propensity: By Gender DoD Youth Polls

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

%Definitely/Probably Overall, youth propensity for joining the Military has remained statistically unchanged from six months ago.

Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11 Start of Ad Tracking Study from previous poll

General Military Propensity: By Race/Ethnicity DoD Youth Polls FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

%Definitely/Probably

Military propensity for Whites has remained relatively stable since June 2005.
After brief periods of decline for both Hispanics and Blacks, propensity seems to be rebounding.

Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11

%Definitely/Probably Service Specific Propensity: Males DoD Youth Polls Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11

FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years?

Service Specific Propensity: Females DoD Youth Polls Start of Ad Tracking Study Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11 FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years?

Propensity Overlap DoD Youth Polls

Among those propensed to join the Air Force Also express interest in joining 20% of Air Force propensed are Air Force only Most of those interested in joining the Air Force also show interest in joining other branches.

FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years? FPP11. How likely is it that you will be serving in the National Guard in the next few years? FPP12. How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves in the next few years?

Propensity Overlap DoD Youth Polls

Those propensed toward:

Would also join:

FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years? FPP11. How likely is it that you will be serving in the National Guard in the next few years? FPP12. How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves in the next few years?

Army

NavyMarine Corps
Air ForceCoast Guard
Army100%40%50%38%44%
Navy38%100%41%44%52%
Marine Corps40%35%100%34%42%
Air Force36%46%41%100%44%
Coast Guard25%31%29%26%100%

Service Preferences Among Propensed Youth DoD Youth Polls

FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years? FPP11. How likely is it that you will be serving in the National Guard in the next few years? FPP12. How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves in the next few years?

11% 10% 9% 10% 6% 8% 12% Youth do not appear to be strongly “singleminded” when it comes to propensity for military service.

Ad Slogan Recall and Reactions

Ad Slogans Respondents were asked if they could recall the ad slogan for each branch.

Purely open-ended (no choices, no prompts)

Respondents who were not sure of Air Force slogan were given 5 slogans to choose from.
Everyone was then told the slogan “Cross into the Blue” and asked about their reactions.

Recall of Air Force Ad Slogan Unaided – No prompting or choices given “Cross into the Blue” Offers an answer different from above Not sure Something similar “Aim High” Only 5% of youth correctly recalled the Air Force ad slogan. This represents a significant increase since Wave 4 where 3% recalled the slogan.

30A. Do you know the advertising slogan of the Air Force?.

Wave 11 Wave 8 Wave 4

5%4%3%
2%1%1%
2%3%2%
6%4%3%
86%89%89%

Aided Question: “One of the following slogans is the current advertising slogan for the US Air Force…” Among those not sure of slogan, we asked:

Question 30B.

Combined – Unaided and Aided “Cross into the Blue” Combined (unaided and aided) ad slogan recall dropped in Wave 10 and has remained stable, with a little over a quarter of youth recalling the Air Force ad slogan.

Question 30A and 30B.

Note: Aided recall question wording changed in Wave 8.

Branch Ad Slogan Recall Combined Unaided and Aided % recalled correctly Army – “Army Of One” Marine Corps – “The Few. The Proud. The Marines” Air Force – “Cross Into The Blue” Navy – “Accelerate Your Life” Coast Guard – “The Shield of Freedom” Marine Corps ad slogan recall remained the highest among the active duty Services.

Note: The Air Force aided response options changed in Wave 8.

Question 26A and 26B (Army); Question 28A and 28B (Navy); Question 30A and 30B (Air Force); Question 32A and 32B (Marine Corps); Question 34A and 34B (Coast Guard).

Wave 11 Wave 8 Wave 4

68%71%73%
44%41%40%
34%28%26%
26%25%30%
13%15%16%

Ad Slogan Recall Reaction Marine Corps:

The Few. The Proud. The Marines Navy:

Accelerate your Life Air Force:

Cross into the Blue Coast Guard:

The Shield of Freedom Note: Sum of percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

Army:

Army of One About one-third (35%) of youth report that the Air Force ad slogan has a positive impact, and only 6% report a negative impact.

27 (Army), 29 (Navy), 31 (Air Force), 33 (Marine Corps), 35 (Coast Guard). The ad slogan of the (BRANCH) is “(SLOGAN).” Does thinking about the (BRANCH) in this way – (SLOGAN – give you a positive feeling about it, a negative feeling, or does it have no impact either way? .

Not Sure

6%
6%
7%
6%
7%

Symbol Recognition

“To which organization does this symbol or logo belong?”

% Correctly Identifying Branch None of the Above Note: This question was asked of online respondents only.

Question 57.

Air Force Army Marine Corps

“To which organization does this symbol or logo belong?”

Air Force Army % Yes (Shows all responses) None of the above Note: Sum of percentages may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding.

Question 57.

Army2%81%3%2%
Navy12%2%18%4%
Air Force64%4%6%39%
Marine Corps7%6%47%4%
Coast Guard9%3%15%16%
None of the Above6%4%11%35%

Marine Corps

Symbol Recognition: By Subgroups Air Force “To which organization does this symbol or logo belong?”

By Gender Among those who have seen the Air Force Ad Among Older Recruits (18-21 age group) Question 57.

% Correctly Identifying Air Force symbol

Event Sponsorship

“Are you aware of the following events sponsored by the US Military?”

Question 55.

% YesTotalMenWomen
Air Show44%47%41%
Career or job fairs40%38%41%
College sporting event34%39%28%
School event24%25%23%
Professional sporting event23%28%18%
NASCAR Racing23%26%19%
X-sports17%20%15%
Local or high school sporting event16%18%15%
State or county fair14%15%14%
The All-American Bowl (Football)12%16%8%
NHRA Racing10%13%6%
Professional Rodeo7%8%7%
Boat Show7%9%6%
Other3%3%2%

“Which branch of the Military sponsored that event?”

Question 56.

% YesArmyNavyMarine CorpsAir ForceCoast Guard
Air Show8%17%5%79%3%
Career or job fairs62%39%38%35%25%
College sporting event64%56%12%15%3%
School event54%28%27%22%13%
Professional sporting event47%23%18%17%7%
NASCAR Racing53%15%14%16%7%
X-sports35%15%16%11%9%
Local or high school sporting event43%24%22%20%11%
State or county fair46%20%22%17%14%
The All-American Bowl (Football)46%23%11%11%7%
NHRA Racing41%10%19%11%8%
Professional Rodeo38%14%13%9%9%
Boat Show7%45%15%5%29%
Other49%26%33%13%8%

This slide would be deleted as the question is no longer asked in the same format

Website Usage and Reactions

Websites

Methodology Respondents were asked if they had visited the following websites:

Each of the military branches

Army
Navy
Marine Corps
Air Force
Coast Guard

MyFuture.com Todaysmilitary.com Note: “Website usage” questions were first asked in Wave 3.

Website Usage Air Force % Visited the Air Force website recently

Air Force website usage has remained stable over the past year.
Men are more likely to have visited the Air Force website than women.

36C. Have you visited the website for any of the following military branches recently: AIR FORCE.

Air Force: By Propensity Consistent with historical trends, more propensed youth report having visited the Air Force website than non-propensed youth.

% Visited the Air Force website recently

Air Force: By Air Force Ad Awareness % Visited the Air Force website recently Consistent with historical trends, more youth who saw the Air Force ad report having visited the Air Force website than youth who did not see the ad.

All Branches % Yes Army Coast Guard “MyFuture.com” “Todaysmilitary.com” Air Force Marine Corps Navy Army website usage continues to be highest, closely followed by the Air Force.

36A-G. Have you visited the website for any of the following military branches recently…

Wave 11 Wave 8 Wave 4

11%12%15%
9%9%12%
7%6%10%
7%7%9%
4%2%4%
2%2%2%
2%2%3%

All Branches “In the past 6 months, how many times have you visited…website?”

Note 1: Base = % who report visiting each branch’s website.

Note 2: Due to small base size, view qualitatively.

Question 39 (Army); Question 42 (Navy); Question 45 (Air Force); Question 48 (Marine Corps); Question 51 (Coast Guard).

ResponseArmyNavyMarine CorpsAir ForceCoast Guard
One43%37%27%34%41%
Two18%21%22%22%23%
Three12%14%15%12%9%
Four4%6%1%8%9%
Five or more11%13%15%8%9%
Not Sure12%10%19%16%9%
Base16110310413144

Website Reactions Air Force Most youth who visited the Air Force website evaluated it favorably.

Website was interesting Made Service seem appealing Told you something new or different Made you interested in finding out more

44. Thinking of the Air Force website, tell me if you agree or disagree with the following… Note: Due to small base size (n=131), view qualitatively.

Wave 11Wave 8Wave 4
76%73%73%
69%67%71%
72%75%72%
80%83%81%

Get information about the Air Force Contact a Recruiter/Advisor Download pictures, wallpaper, or other graphics Website Activities Air Force “Did you do any of the following while you were on the Air Force website?”

Question 46.

Note: Due to small base size (n=131), view qualitatively.

Imagery

Imagery Items

Methodology We asked all respondents how strongly they associate a list of imagery items with:

Army Navy Marine Corps

Coast Guard

Lifestyle “Provides an opportunity for travel” “Offers jobs that are interesting and more than just a daily routine” “Offers a lifestyle that is attractive to me” “Offers an opportunity for adventure”

Security “Presents the least likelihood of physical danger”

Affiliation “Has a lot of people like me”

Training/Preparation for life “Offers training in cutting edge technology” “Provides excellent preparation for a future career outside the Military” “Has the most variety in terms of jobs and skills it offers”

Success/responsibility “Allows you to achieve success quickly” “Offers substantial responsibility quickly”

Financial Incentives “Offers money for college” “Allows a person to make good money”

Pride “Serving in the Air Force would be something to be proud of” “Is the most elite Service”

Patriotism “Is for people who are willing to sacrifice for the country”

Specific to Air Force “Will help me make the most of my natural talents”

Potential Recruit Association Trends % Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 25A-P and 25T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. Military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

Imagery ItemWave 4 (2004)Wave 8 (2005)Wave 12 (2006)
Opportunity to travel89%88%86%
For people willing to sacrifice for countryQNA83%83%
Training in cutting edge technology84%80%81%
Something to be proud of84%81%80%
Opportunity for adventure82%77%79%
Money for college81%79%79%
Substantial responsibility quickly74%70%71%
Excellent preparation for future career75%68%70%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine74%71%69%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skills69%62%62%
Make good money59%53%60%
Achieve success quickly63%57%60%
Most elite Service64%62%59%
Help make the most of my natural talentsQNA55%55%
Has a lot of people like me45%40%42%
Least likelihood of danger37%35%37%
Attractive lifestyle38%31%34%

from one year ago

Air Force Imagery: Potential Recruits Trends

The imagery ratings remained stable from Wave 11 to Wave 12. There were no significant differences.
Imagery ratings are fairly stable from previous year (Wave 8) with the exception of:

“Make good money” (7% increase in Wave 12) Between 2004 and 2005, 11 of the 17 imagery associations weakened.

Only “Make good money” has since rebounded.

Air Force Imagery: Potential Recruits By Subgroups Race/ethnicity differences in Air Force imagery:

White vs. Black:

More White youth associate the Air Force with: “Cutting edge technology”, “Something to be proud of”, “Achieve success quickly”, “Opportunity for adventure”, “For people willing to sacrifice for their country”, and “Will help me make the most of my natural talents”.

White vs. Hispanic:

More Hispanic youth associate the Air Force with “Attractive lifestyle”.

More White youth associate the Air Force with “For people willing to sacrifice for their country”.

Black vs. Hispanic:

More Hispanic youth associate the Air Force with: “Cutting edge technology”, “Excellent preparation for future career outside of Military”, “Most elite Service”, “Attractive lifestyle”, “Opportunity for adventure”, and “Most variety in terms of jobs and skills.

Air Force Imagery: Potential Recruits By Subgroups Gender differences in Air Force imagery:

More males associated the Air Force with “Training in cutting edge technology”, “Most elite Service”, “Attractive Lifestyle”, “Least likelihood of danger”, “Has a lot of people like me”, and “Most variety in terms of jobs and skills”, and “Help me make the most of my natural talents”.

More females associated the Air Force with “Is for people willing to sacrifice for the country”.

Propensity differences in Air Force imagery:

There were significant differences between propensed and non-propensed youth on all imagery items.

Propensed youth have more favorable images of the Air Force.

Youth who report having seen an Air Force ad rate all the Air Force imagery items, except “For people willing to sacrifice for the country”, significantly differently than those who did not see an ad.

Youth who have seen Air Force ads have more favorable images, in particular, for: “Make good money”, “Money for college”, “Training in cutting edge technology”, “Achieve success quickly”, and “Most variety in terms of jobs and skills”.

Potential Recruits

Ad Recall Air Force ad recall significantly rose in Wave 10 and Wave 11 and remained higher in Wave 12 at 69%.

Recall levels are higher among propensed youth, males, and older potential recruits (18-21).

Most of the youth who recall seeing Air Force ads (unaided) said they saw these ads on TV.

A majority of youth who saw an Air Force ad agreed that it was interesting, but only about a third thought that the ad portrayed the Air Force as appealing, told them something new/different, or motivated them to find out more.

Potential Recruits

Ad Slogan Recall

Twenty-eight percent of youth recalled the Air Force ad slogan. Ad slogan recall is higher among the other DoD active duty Services.
Only a very small proportion of youth (6%) report that the Air Force ad slogan has a negative impact.

Symbol Recognition Army symbol has the highest recognition (81%) followed by the Air Force (64%) and Marine Corps (47%).

Event Sponsorship Air Show (44%) has the highest recall among all events, followed by career/job fairs (40%) and college sporting events (34%). Professional sporting events (23%) and NASCAR (23%) lag behind.

Most youth associate military-sponsored air shows with the Air Force (79%).

Potential Recruits

Website Usage Only about 9% of youth report having visited the Air Force website.

Men, propensed youth, and youth who report having seen an Air Force ad were all more likely to have visited the Air Force website.

Most youth who visited the Air Force website evaluated it favorably (e.g., interesting, motivated them to find out more).

Imagery

Consistent with past trends, most youth (75% or more) associate the Air Force with “Opportunity to travel”, “For people willing to sacrifice for the country”, “Training in cutting edge technology”, “Something to be proud of”, “Opportunity for adventure”, and “Money for college”.
Men, propensed youth, and youth who saw an Air Force ad had more favorable images of the Air Force; Black youth had generally less favorable images of the Air Force in comparison to Whites and Hispanics.

Influencers: Key Findings

A Broader Context Current Situation

Attitudes Toward The War In Iraq Source: Gallup

Attitudes Toward The War In Iraq

Source: Gallup

Influencers Likelihood to Recommend

Explanation of Likelihood to Recommend measures:

Advertising Tracking Study – gathers likelihood to recommend measure and advertising-related information continuously (grouped by quarter). Questions asked of parents, grandparents and other influencers.

DoD Influencer Polls – gathers likelihood to recommend measure and other information related to influencing youth’s future decisions. Questions asked of parents and non-parents twice per year.

Results presented in a comparative context.

Likelihood To Recommend

Only 40% of influencers report being very likely or likely to recommend military service as a post-high school option.
Likelihood to recommend military service has remained relatively stable since tracking began, with a small decrease in Wave 9.

Likelihood To Recommend: Military Service Ad Tracking % Likely (Very Likely/ Likely) 1A. Suppose your child/your grandchild/a youth came to you for advice about various post-high school options. How likely is it that you would recommend joining a military Service such as the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force or Coast Guard?

Likelihood to Recommend: Military Service DoD Influencer Polls

ADV2: Suppose one of your children/students/a youth you know came to you for advice about various post-high school options. How likely is it that you would recommend a military Service such as the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force or Coast Guard?

Data from the December 2005 Influencer Poll tracked likelihood to recommend at 37%, with parents being significantly less likely to recommend military service to their child (29%) in comparison to non-parents (44%).

Likelihood To Recommend: Military Service Ad Tracking % Likely (Very Likely/ Likely) Consistent with Influencer Poll findings, Ad Tracking data shows that fewer parents report being likely to recommend military service than non-parents.

1A. Suppose your child/your grandchild/a youth came to you for advice about various post-high school options. How likely is it that you would recommend joining a military Service such as the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force or Coast Guard?

Likelihood To Recommend: Air Force

% Likely (Very Likely/ Likely) 2C. How likely is it that you would recommend serving on active duty in the Air Force to your child/your grandchild/young people?

Roughly 4 in 10 influencers report being very likely or likely to recommend the Air Force as a post-high school option.
This proportion has remained relatively stable since tracking began in Fall of 2003.

Likelihood To Recommend: Air Force

% Likely (Very Likely/ Likely) 2C. How likely is it that you would recommend serving on active duty in the Air Force to your child/your grandchild/young people?

Other influencers (e.g., teachers, coaches) are most likely to recommend serving in the Air Force to a youth they know.

Likelihood To Recommend: Individual Services Ad Tracking Air Force Coast Guard Army Marine Corps Navy

In comparison to the other active duty Services, likelihood to recommend was lowest for the Army and Marine Corps.

2A-E. How likely is it that you would recommend serving on active duty in the … to your child/your grandchild/young people?

DadsMomsGrand-
parentsOther

Influencers

%%%%
26162943
35204565
22153247
46255072
36174669

Likelihood to Recommend: Individual Services DoD Influencer Polls ADV2: Suppose one of your children/students/a youth you know came to you for advice about various post-high school options. How likely is it that you would recommend…? Would you be very likely, likely, neither likely nor unlikely, unlikely or very unlikely?

Influencer Poll findings reveal that for parents and non-parent influencers, likelihood to recommend has consistently been the lowest for the Army and Marine Corps.

ParentsMay – 04Nov – 04Jun – 05Dec – 05
Army20%15%20%20%
Navy23%19%25%21%
Marine Corps18%15%19%18%
Air Force28%23%29%25%
Coast Guard23%19%23%22%
Reserves27%22%27%24%
National Guard25%20%25%22%
Non-ParentsMay – 04Nov – 04Jun – 05Dec – 05
Army39%35%42%39%
Navy41%39%46%43%
Marine Corps37%32%40%37%
Air Force45%41%48%46%
Coast Guard41%39%44%44%
Reserves45%41%46%47%
National Guard42%40%43%44%

Knowledge Levels

Influencers’ Perception of Own Military Knowledge

% Top 3 Box

Question: “How knowledgeable are you about the U.S. military?” [On a scale of 1 (Not at all knowledgeable) to 10 (Very knowledgeable)]

Question 1AA (Note: This question was not asked prior to Wave 10.)

Knowledge vs. Recommendation

“How likely are you to recommend overall Military & Branches?”

Knowledge of the Military (Question 1AA); Likelihood to recommend military service (Question 1A); Likelihood to recommend serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) (Questions 2A-E).

% Very Likely/Likely

to recommendAmong Very Knowledgeable
% Top 3 Box on a 10 point scale (8,9,10)Among Not Very Knowledgeable

(% Influencers rating 1-7)

Military58%32%
Army34%20%
Navy44%28%
Marine Corps30%19%
Air Force58%33%
Coast Guard41%29%

Belief Statements

“If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were interested in military service, I would express concern.”
“If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were thinking of joining the Military, I would try to talk them out of it.”
“If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were planning to join the Military, I would support their decision.”
“I would need to have a long conversation with my child/grandchild/young person and discuss all of the pros and cons of military service before I would be comfortable with them joining the Military.”
“I believe there are positive aspects of the Military, but the negatives outweigh the positives in my opinion.”
“I would need to gather more information about the Military before I would be prepared to discuss it with my child/grandchild/young person.”

Questions 2AA-2FF

About three-quarters (76%) of influencers report that they would need to discuss all of the pros and cons of military service before being comfortable with their child, grandchild, or a young person joining the Military.
One-third (33%) of influencers would try to talk their child, grandchild, or a young person out of joining the Military.

Questions 2AA-2FF (Note: These questions were not asked prior to Wave 10.)

Belief Statements
% Strongly Agree/AgreeWave 10Wave 11Wave 12
Discuss pros & cons76%75%76%
Support their decision70%71%72%
Express concern63%63%63%
Gather more information53%53%51%
Negatives outweigh positives46%49%50%
Talk them out of it36%31%33%

Belief Statements: Subgroups In comparison to the other influencer groups, more mothers would express concern (73%) and try to talk their child out of joining the Military (43%).

Statement: “If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were interested in military service, I would express concern.”

% Strongly Agree/Agree Statement: “If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were thinking of joining the Military, I would try to talk them out of it.”

% Strongly Agree/Agree Questions 2BB and 2AA

For each influencer group, the majority (65-82%) report that they would support their child’s, grandchild’s, or a young person’s decision to join the Military. Additionally, a large proportion of influencers (67% or more) also report that they would need to discuss all the pros and cons before being comfortable with this decision.

Statement: “If my child/grandchild/young person told me they were planning to join the Military, I would support their decision.”

% Strongly Agree/Agree Statement: “I would need to have a long conversation with my child/grandchild/young person and discuss all of the pros and cons of military service before I would be comfortable with them joining the Military.”

Questions 2FF and 2EE

In comparison to the other influencer groups, more mothers (58%) believe that the negatives outweigh the positives when it comes to military Services. Additionally, more mothers (59%) indicate that they would need to gather more information in order to be prepared to discuss the military with their child.

Statement: “I believe there are positive aspects of the military, but the negatives outweigh the positives in my opinion.”

% Strongly Agree/Agree Statement: “I would need to gather more information about the military before I would be prepared to discuss it with my child/grandchild/young person.”

Questions 2CC and 2DD

Recommendation vs. Belief Statements Belief statements (Questions 2AA-2FF); Likelihood to recommend military service (Question 1A); Likelihood to recommend serving on active duty in the Air Force (Question 2C).

Overall Military Air Force

Strongly Agree/Agree with statement

Total

Among Likely to recommend Among Not Likely to recommend

Among Likely to recommend Among Not Likely to recommend Express concern 63 44 76 44 77

Talk them out of it

Support their decision7290608961
Discuss pros & cons7670807378
Negatives outweigh positives5026662964
Gather more information5147544754
Base751300451304447

Discussions about Future Military Careers

Discussions: Future Career Prospects

Grandparents are least likely to have spoken with grandchildren about their future.

“Sometime, during the past 12 months, have you spoken with [your child/your grandchild/a young person] about what they are going to do with their future?”

No significant change from last wave Question 5A.

Total Dads Moms

%Grand- parents
%Other Influencers

% Yes 82 82 88 50 88

= significantly lower than other subgroups

Discussions: Future Military Career Prospects

Dads are more likely to have initiated the conversation.

“Which of you initiated the conversation?”

“Did you discuss the possibility of him/her joining the military?”

Questions 5B and 5C.

*Total includes Dads, Moms, Grandparents and Other Influencers. Bases are not sufficient to provide results for Grandparents only and Other Influencers only.

Total*
%Dads
%Moms
Me263420
Him/Her141312
Both565065
Not sure333
Base615247265
Total*
%Dads
%Moms
% Yes394727
Base615247265

Discussions: Future Military Career Prospects

“When discussing the military, was the opinion you expressed very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative?”

No significant differences Questions 5D.

*Total includes Dads, Moms, Grandparents and Other Influencers. Bases are not sufficient to provide results for Grandparents only and Other Influencers only.

Total*
%Dads
%Moms
Very/Somewhat Positive595454
Neutral313631
Very/Somewhat Negative10915

Base 238 116 72

Despite the fact that a large proportion of influencers report having had a conversation with their child, grandchild, or a young person about their future, only about one-third of all influencers report having had a conversation about joining the military and only about 1 in 5 report having had a positive conversation about joining the military.
These estimates have remained fairly stable over time.

Discussions: Future Military Career Prospects % of Influencers Had conversation (Question 5A); Had military conversation (Question 5C); Had positive military conversation (Question 5D). (Note: These questions were not asked prior to Wave 7.)

Roughly equal proportions of dads and moms report having had a conversation with their child about the future. However, more dads are talking with the children about military service and having positive conversations about joining.
These estimates have remained stable over time.

Discussions: Future Military Career Prospects Dads and Moms % of Dads % of Moms Had conversation (Question 5A); Had military conversation (Question 5C); Had positive military conversation (Question 5D). (Note: These questions were not asked prior to Wave 7.)

Imagery

Influencer Association Trends % Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 6A-P and 6T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

Imagery ItemWave 4 (2004)Wave 8 (2005)Wave 12 (2006)
Opportunity to travel93%90%91%
Something to be proud of90%88%88%
For people willing to sacrifice for countryQNA87%86%
Opportunity for adventure88%86%86%
Training in cutting edge technology88%84%83%
Money for college87%81%83%
Excellent preparation for future career83%77%79%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine84%79%79%
Substantial responsibility quickly84%79%76%
Help young people make most of natural talentsQNA78%76%
Most elite Service74%70%71%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skills81%74%68%
Achieve success quickly71%70%67%
Attractive lifestyle64%60%57%
Make good money55%50%52%
[My child] would fit in56%48%47%
Least likelihood of danger43%42%44%

from one year ago

Association Trends: Influencer vs. Potential Recruits* % Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 6A-P and 6T (Influencer) and 25A-P and 25T (Potential Recruit). Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

*Note: Wave 12 data shown for both groups.

Imagery ItemInfluencersPotential RecruitsDifference
Opportunity to travel91%86%5%
Something to be proud of88%80%8%
For people willing to sacrifice for country86%83%3%
Opportunity for adventure86%79%6%
Training in cutting edge technology83%81%2%
Money for college83%79%5%
Excellent preparation for future career79%70%9%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine79%69%10%
Substantial responsibility quickly76%71%5%
Help young people make most of natural talents76%55%20%
Most elite Service71%59%12%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skills68%62%6%
Achieve success quickly67%60%7%
Attractive lifestyle57%34%24%
Make good money52%60%- 7%
[My Child] would fit in/Lots of people like me47%42%5%
Least likelihood of danger44%37%7%

= significant difference

Summary: Influencers Likelihood To Recommend Likelihood to recommend the military trends have remained fairly stable over time, with about 40% of influencers being likely to recommend.

Non-parents are more likely to recommend than parents, with dads being more likely to recommend than moms.

Likelihood to recommend trends for the Air Force have been stable over time, with about four in ten influencers being likely to recommend.

In comparison to grandparents and parents, a larger proportion of other influencers (e.g., teachers, coaches) would recommend serving in the Air Force to a youth they know.

Knowledge Levels

Moms describe themselves as least knowledgeable about the military
Influencers who describe themselves as knowledgeable about the military, are also more likely to recommend joining the military, as well as each of the specific branches

Belief Statements Overall, Influencers believe that:

They would need to have a conversation and discuss all pros and cons before being comfortable with their child, grandchild, or a young person joining the military.

However, if their child, grandchild, or a young person were planning to join the military, most would support this decision.

More moms would express concern, talk their child out of joining the military, and believe the negatives outweigh positives, in comparison to the other influencer groups.
Those who are likely to recommend joining the military and serving in the Air Force are less likely to agree with belief statements like “Talk them out of it”, “Express concern” and “Negatives outweigh positives”.
Those who are less likely to recommend are more likely to agree with the belief statement “Gather more information”; however, there were no differences based on likelihood to recommend regarding the belief statement “Discuss pros and cons”.

Imagery Trends Imagery trends are fairly consistent across waves. In Wave 12, 86% or more of influencers associated the Air Force with the following images:

Opportunity to travel (91%) Something to be proud of (88%) For people willing to sacrifice for their country (86%) Opportunity for adventure (86%)

Influencers and potential recruits differed significantly on almost all of the imagery ratings, with Influencers being more favorable. Most notably, 76% of influencers associated the Air Force with “Help young people make the most of their natural talents”, whereas only 55% of potential recruits made this association.
Dads are more favorable than moms on a variety of imagery items, including, for example, “My child would fit in well”, “Least likelihood of danger”, “Attractive lifestyle”, and “Something to be proud of”.

Appendix: Additional Data

Appendix

Methodology: Sample Sizes 9,000 interviews conducted annually

2,250 each quarter; 750 each month

Men aged 15 to 213,000
(750 per quarter)
Women aged 15 to 213,000
(750 per quarter)

Potential Recruits

Dads with children1,200
aged 12-21(300 per quarter)
Moms with children1,200
aged 12-21(300 per quarter)
Grandparents with300
grandchildren aged 12-21(75 per quarter)
Other influencers of youth300
age 12-21 (teachers, coaches,(75 per quarter)

etc.)

Annual Sample Sizes

Methodology: Two Modes Of Research

Telephone

National
Sampling (RDD) allows us to reach listed and unlisted phone numbers
With bilingual (English/

Spanish) interviewers for Influencers

25% of youth quota 50% of adult quota On-line

National
Using a set of nationally representative on-line panels
Best way to reach Youth!!!

75% of youth quota 50% of adult quota

Methodology: Additional Data Sources Youth Data

DoD Youth Poll 10 (December, 2005): telephone interviews with 3,264 youth aged 16 through 21 Influencer Data

DoD Influencer Poll 5 (December, 2005): telephone interviews with 1,262 adult influencers aged 22 to 85 Adult Influencers defined as adults who are either:

Parents of youth ages 16 to 21

--or--
Non-parent influencers that interact with youth aged 12 to 21 (e.g., teachers, coaches, mentors, relatives)
Gallup Poll (www.gallup.com)

Potential Recruits: Ad Recall and Reactions

Ad Recall Trends Unaided Recall

% Recall Air Force Ad A larger proportion of propensed youth appear to recall Air Force ads (unaided) in comparison to all potential recruits.

Unaided recall (Questions 3 and 4C).

Potential Recruits: Propensity to Serve

General Military Propensity: Males by Race/Ethnicity DoD Youth Polls

Male propensity has remained relatively stable for all race/ethnicities.
Black male propensity is higher than White male propensity for the first time since May 2004.

Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

General Military Propensity: Females by Race/Ethnicity DoD Youth Polls

Female propensity has also remained relatively stable for all races/ethnicities.
Hispanic female propensity is higher than Black female propensity for the first time since November 2004.

Corresponds to Ad Tracking: Wave 1 Wave 3 Wave 5 Wave 7 Wave 9 Wave 11

FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?

Single-mindedness DoD Youth Polls Explored:

Among those propensed to each branch only
Among those propensed to more than one branch if forced to choose

Single-mindedness DoD Youth Polls

Air Force has strongest “single-mindedness” rating; Army highest among those propensed toward more than one Service.

FPP10A-E. How likely is it that you will be serving on active duty in the (BRANCH) in the next few years? FPP11. How likely is it that you will be serving in the National Guard in the next few years? FPP12A. How likely is it that you will be serving in the Reserves in the next few years?

% Interested in joining that Service and no other Service% One Service of choice
Army15%20%
Navy15%18%
Marine Corps16%13%
Air Force20%17%
Coast Guard11%2%
Reserves14%14%
National Guard9%9%
BasePotential Recruits propensed to each ServicePotential Recruits – Total propensed to more than one branch

Potential Recruits: Ad Slogan Recall and Reactions

Branch Ad Slogan Recall Unaided % recalled correctly Army – “Army Of One” Marine Corps – “The Few. The Proud. The Marines” Air Force – “Cross Into The Blue” Navy – “Accelerate Your Life” Coast Guard – “The Shield of Freedom” Army ad slogan recall (unaided) continues to be the highest, followed by the Marine Corps.

Question 26A (Army); Question 28A (Navy); Question 30A (Air Force); Question 32A (Marine Corps); Question 34A (Coast Guard).

Wave 11 Wave 8 Wave 4

11%11%11%
26%25%29%
6%4%3%
5%4%3%
1%2%0%

Potential Recruits: Website Usage and Reactions

All Branches % Yes: All Recruits Army Coast Guard “MyFuture.com” “Todaysmilitary.com” Air Force Marine Corps Navy

Among all potential recruits, most (11%) report having visited the Army website.
Among propensed youth, Army and Air Force website usage are the highest.

36A-G. Have you visited the website for any of the following military branches recently…

Propensed
Wave 12Propensed
Wave 8Propensed

Wave 4

32%37%40%
36%35%37%
25%29%31%
30%34%33%
19%18%21%
10%8%7%
8%6%7%

Potential Recruits: Imagery

% Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 25A-P and 25T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

Imagery ItemPropensedNot PropensedDifference
Opportunity to travel94%85%8%
For people willing to sacrifice for country90%83%7%
Training in cutting edge technology93%79%14%
Something to be proud of92%78%13%
Opportunity for adventure92%78%14%
Money for college89%77%12%
Substantial responsibility quickly83%69%14%
Excellent preparation for future career89%68%21%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine87%66%21%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skills84%59%24%
Make good money82%57%25%
Achieve success quickly81%57%25%
Most elite Service82%56%27%
Help make the most of my natural talents84%52%33%
Has a lot of people like me72%38%35%
Least likelihood of danger59%34%25%
Attractive lifestyle81%27%53%

% Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 25A-P and 25T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

Imagery ItemSeen AdNot Seen AdDifference
Opportunity to travel89%81%8%
For people willing to sacrifice for country84%81%3%
Training in cutting edge technology85%72%13%
Something to be proud of83%72%11%
Opportunity for adventure83%72%11%
Money for college83%70%13%
Substantial responsibility quickly74%63%11%
Excellent preparation for future career73%62%11%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine72%61%12%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skills66%53%12%
Make good money64%49%15%
Achieve success quickly63%51%13%
Most elite Service62%51%11%
Help make the most of my natural talents58%49%10%
Has a lot of people like me44%36%8%
Least likelihood of danger39%33%5%
Attractive lifestyle36%28%9%

% Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Air Force 25A-P and 25T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military. For each, please say if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly that this applies to the Air Force.

Imagery ItemW2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12
Opportunity to travel83%90%89%88%88%88%88%90%90%86%86%
For people willing to sacrifice for countryQNAQNAQNAQNAQNA84%83%84%85%82%83%
Training in cutting edge technology82%86%84%82%83%83%80%82%84%79%81%
Something to be proud of84%85%84%83%81%83%81%81%82%79%80%
Opportunity for adventureQNAQNA82%81%82%81%77%81%82%79%79%
Money for college79%83%81%81%79%81%79%81%83%77%79%
Substantial responsibility quickly73%78%74%74%72%73%70%73%75%71%71%
Excellent preparation for future career72%78%75%73%70%71%68%71%73%69%70%
Jobs interesting and not just daily routine75%77%74%73%71%74%71%73%73%69%69%
Most variety in terms of jobs and skillsQNAQNA69%66%64%66%62%65%64%62%62%
Make good money58%62%59%56%59%59%53%58%60%57%60%
Achieve success quickly62%67%63%61%60%60%57%59%61%59%60%
Most elite Service64%63%64%63%60%63%62%61%62%60%59%
Help make the most of my natural talentsQNAQNAQNA60%60%57%55%58%58%57%55%
Has a lot of people like meQNAQNA45%42%42%41%40%39%41%40%42%
Least likelihood of dangerQNAQNA37%36%35%37%35%35%38%38%37%
Attractive lifestyle38%40%38%37%35%33%31%32%35%32%34%

% Strongly/Somewhat Associate with Each Service* 25A-P and 25T. Here are some statements that might be used to describe the branches of the U.S. military.

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