R DCLU_Report_(1).pdf

IQC 391 – I – 11 – 00003

AID – 391 – 14 – 00001

RESERVOIR AND DAM CONSTRUCTION LAND USE

Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

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Disclaimer:

This Project is made possible by the support of the American people through the United

States Agency for International Development (USAID). The opinion expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID, A. A. Associates or

Techno-Consult International.

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of

International Tender Document for the Diamer Basha Dam Project

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL/CULTURAL IMPACT REVIEW

OF THE PROJECT ACTIVITIES

RESERVOIR AND DAM CONSTRUCTION LAND USE

Prepared by : Wasim Iqbal Rabbani

Revised by : Wasim Iqbal Rabbani

Approved by : Azher Uddin Khan

RESERVOIR AND DAM CONSTRUCTION LAND USE

Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of

International Tender Document for the Diamer Basha Dam Project

IQC 391 – I – 11 – 00003

AID – 391 – 14 – 00001

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL/CULTURAL IMPACT REVIEW

OF THE PROJECT ACTIVITIES

RESERVOIR AND DAM CONSTRUCTION LAND USE

Table of Content

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

1.0 GENERAL

1.1 BACKGROUND

1.2 PROPOSED IRRIGATION COMMAND AREAS(S)

2.0 PROJECT BRIEF

2.1 SALIENT PROJECT FEATURES

2.2 MAIN BENEFITS OF THE PROJECT

3.0 UPDATED STATUS OF PROJECT PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES

4.0 ALREADY CONDUCTED MAIN STUDIES AND REPORTS

5.0 REVIEW METHODOLOGY

6.0 SUMMARY OF EIA REPORT ON LAND USE ASPECTS

6.1 GENERAL

6.2 LEGISLATION AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

6.3 ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS RELATED TO LAND USE

6.4 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN

6.5 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

6.6 RESEARCH

6.7 ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE

7.0 PROJECT LAND ACQUISITION REQUIREMENTS

8.0 LAND USE RELATED PROJECT MAPS

9.0 REVIEW ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

9.1 GENERAL

9.2 LOSS OF LAND

9.3 RELOCATION OF KKH AND PROVISION OF RIGHT BANK PERIPHERY ROAD

9.4 PROJECT IMPACTS ON CULTIVATION AND AGRICULTURE

9.5 SLOPE STABILITY AND LANDSLIDES ALONG RESERVOIR PERIPHERY

9.5.1 REPORT ON LANDSLIDE AND SLOPE STABILITY

9.5.2 ASSESSMENT OF EIA REPORT

9.5.3 OUR REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT

10.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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LIST OF TABLES

1 Diamer Basha Dam Project: Current Status of Land Acquisition (12.2013)

Diamer Basha Dam Project: Anticipated Environmental Impacts Matrix related to Land

Use

3 Diamer Basha Dam Project: Estimated Land Acquisition Requirements

4 Diamer Basha Dam Project: Distribution of Land Acquisition Requirements

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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development Bank

BCM Billion Cubic Meters

D/S Downstream

DBC Diamer Basha Consultants

DBDP Diamer Basha Dam Project

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EMMC Environmental Monitoring and Management Cell (of WAPDA)

EMP Environmental Management Plan

FRL Full Reservoir Level

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GWh Giga Watt Hour

KKH Karakorum Highway

KPK Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

LARDP Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan

MAF Million Acre-Feet

MASL Meters above Mean Sea Level

MOL Minimum Operating Level (of Reservoir)

MONENCO Montreal Engineering Company Limited

MW Mega Watt

NEAC NESPAK – ACE Joint Venture Consultants

NHA National Highway Authority

PMF Probable Maximum Flood

RCC Roller Compacted Concrete

RPM Revolution per Minute

TOR Terms of Reference

U/S Upstream

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WB The World Bank

WCD World Commission on Dams

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1.0 GENERAL

1.1 BACKGROUND

USAID-Pakistan has entrusted, under a consultancy contract, the Contractor to carryout a Study “Data and Information Collection and Review and International

Tender Preparation for the Diamer Basha Dam Project Studies”, with explicit Terms of Reference (TOR).

One important part of the Main Study is “Environmental and Social/Cultural Impact

Review of the Project Activities”. The objective of this part of the Study, in accordance with USAID, is to serve as input to an international Terms of Reference, prepared by USAID, for the environmental and social/cultural impact assessment of the Diamer Basha Dam Project (hereinafter called DBDP or the Project). The main scope of this part of the Study is summarized as follows:

a) Collection, review, validation, gap analysis and assessing conformity to the latest applicable requirements of The World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank

(ADB), World Commission on Dams (WCD) and other relevant international and local agencies, of the existing studies, reports and plans of the Project, with particular emphasis on issues included in the Employer’s TOR, with the assistance, in form of interviews and meetings with WAPDA officials and others concerned, where required

b) All the review and analysis to be based upon information available from secondary sources, with no need for collection of any field information

c) Providing a bibliography with a short summary of each document collected

This Component Environmental Review Report “Reservoir and Dam Construction

Land Use” is part of “Environmental and Social/Cultural Impact Review of the Project

Activities”, which thereupon forms part of the Main Study Report.

1.2 PROPOSED IRRIGATION COMMAND AREAS(S)

Under the consultancy contract, there is a deliverable Component Environmental

Review Report “Proposed Irrigation Command Areas(s)”. It shall be appreciated, however, that there is no provision for any canal or channel, for diverting water from the Project reservoir, for irrigation purposes. Consequently, there would not be any

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

Page 8 of 34 AAA-TCI specific irrigation command area, directly associated with the Project. The additional surface water, made available due to the Project, would potentially be used for irrigation purposes, in downstream areas of Pakistan, through the existing or future irrigation water networks. This additional water may either be used for augmenting supplies to the existing agricultural lands and/or may lead to the increase in the downstream command areas. This aspect, of the Project, has been reviewed and discussed, in this report, as a land use consideration. Consequently, no separate report on “Proposed Irrigation Command Areas(s)” is required.

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2.0 PROJECT BRIEF

2.1 Salient Project Features

Concerned Authorities

Sponsored By Government of Pakistan

Execution WAPDA

Operation and Maintenance WAPDA

Concerned Federal Ministry Ministry of Water and Power

River Indus

Location of Dam on River Indus About 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam

About 82 km upstream of Dasu Town

About 40 km downstream of Chilas Town

About 180 km downstream of Gilgit Town

Hydrology

Catchment Area 153,200 km2

River Discharge (Mean Annual) 62 billion m3

Estimated Sediments Load (Mean Annual) 196 million tons

Flood Assessment

Diversion Flood (1 in 100 years) 14,330 m3/s

Basic Design Flood-1 (1 in 10000 years) 20,200 m3/s

Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) 49,410 m3/s

Main Dam

Type Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC)

Maximum Height above Rock Foundation 272 m

Flow Diversion System

Diversion Tunnels (Right Side) 2 Numbers

Diversion Channel (Right Side) 1 Number

Upstream & Downstream Cofferdams

Upstream Cofferdam Level 977.5 MASL

Downstream Cofferdam Level 973.0 MASL

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Main Spillway

Crest Level 1145.5 MASL

Numbers of Gates 14

Size of Gates 11.5 m x 16.24 m

Flow Capacity 18,128 m3/s at FRL of 1160 MASL

Reservoir

Crest Level 1170 MASL

Full Reservoir Level (FRL) 1160 MASL

Minimum Operating Level (MOL) 1060 MASL

Gross Storage 10.0 BCM (8.1 MAF)

Live Storage 7.9 BCM (6.4 MAF)

Length of Reservoir at FRL 93.50 km (Up to RAIKOT Bridge on KKH)

Length of Reservoir at MOL 68.61 km

Reservoir Area at FRL 115.13 km2

Reservoir Area at MOL 47.61 km2

Outlets in Dam Body

Low Level 2

Flushing 5

Flushing Tunnels

Right Bank 1 (By Conversion of 1 Diversion Tunnel)

Left Bank 1 (Underneath the Power Intake)

Powerhouse(s)

Type Underground

Location One each on Right and Left Side

Total Installed Capacity 4500 MW (2 x 2250 MW)

Numbers of Units 12 (6 x 375 MW in each Powerhouse)

Design Discharge of Each Powerhouse 1481 m3/s

Turbines

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Type FRANCIS (Vertical Shafts)

Design Net Head 170.5 m

Maximum & Minimum Operating Net

Heads

204.2 m & 100.5 m

Reservoir Water Level for Design Head 1130 MASL

Unit Discharge at Design Head 246.8 m3/s

Synchronous Speed 166.67 RPM

Tail Water Level

Minimum 947 MASL

@ Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) 970 MASL

Generators

Type Semi umbrella type

Maximum Continuous Rating (MCR) 416 MVA

Rated Power Factor 0.9

Generation Voltage 21 kV

Rated Frequency 50 Hz

Output at Generator Terminal 375 MW

Generator Step-Up Transformers

Number of Units 2 x 3 x 6

Number of Spare Units 2

Type Single Phase

Type of Cooling OFWF

Rated Primary Voltage 21 kV

Rated Secondary Voltage 765 kV

Rated Frequency 50 Hz

Average Annual Electricity Generation

At Diamer Basha Dam 18,097 GWh

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Additional at Tarbela Dam 1,111 GWh

Total 19,208 GWh

Land Acquisition for All Purposes [1]

Total 37,419 acres

Distribution by Existing Land Use

Areas under Housing including

Infrastructure

72 acres (0.19 %)

Area under Commercial Objects 24 acres (0.06 %)

Cultivated/Agricultural Lands 3,013 acres (8.05 %)

Uncultivated, Cultivable Lands 2,611 acres (7.0 %)

Barren Lands & Pastures 12,637 acres (33.8 %)

Areas under River, Streams, Rocks 19,062 acres (50.9 %)

Distribution by Project Components

Dam & Appurtenant Structures 1,802 acres (4.8 %)

Reservoir (up-to 1170 MASL) 30,374 acres (81.2 %)

Others (Outside 1170 MASL Zone) 5,243 acres (14.0 %)

Distribution by Geographical Units

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 35,991 acres (96.2 %)

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) 1,428 acres (3.8 %)

Distribution by Ownership

Private Lands 18,357 acres (49 %)

Government Lands 19,062 acres (51 %)

Environmental Aspects [2]

Numbers of Villages Affected 32

Numbers of Households Affected 4,228

Estimated Affected Population 30,350

Prehistoric Rock Carvings 33,000

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Karakorum Highway (KKH)

Submerged Length 100 km

Length to be Relocated 140 km

Sources:

[1] Monthly Report No 2 (November, 2013) by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC), aided with certain written communications from WAPDA

[2] Project Brief provided by WAPDA (Status updated to 11.2013)

Remaining Information: EIA Report (Improved Draft): 2010: Volume II: Annex C-1

2.2 Main Benefits of the Project

a. Availability of about 6.4 MAF (Reservoir Live Storage) of annual surface water, for supplementing irrigation water supplies to Pakistan

b. Providing about 18,100 GWh of electric energy per annum, from its installed capacity of 4,500 MW, as well as enabling about 1,110 GWh of additional generation at Tarbela Dam, due to conjunctive operation of the two reservoirs

c. Increase in useful life of the downstream Tarbela reservoir, by about 35 years, as well as of the future downstream reservoirs, by trapping large amount of sediment

d. Alleviation of the flood damages of the Indus River, particularly in the reach from Kalabagh to Guddu Barrage

e. Significant improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the otherwise backward areas and people, in the vicinity of the Project

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3.0 UPDATED STATUS OF PROJECT PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES

Many pre-requisite activities, in respect of the Project, are presently in progress, with their current status as follows:

a) Land Acquisition: The process of acquisition of land (both government and private), for the Project, was started, in accordance with the applicable local laws and procedures, in 2010. The process involves WAPDA and the respective governments of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

(KPK). Table 1 presents the current status of land acquisition, as in December

2013.

Table 1

Diamer Basha Dam Project: Current Status of Land Acquisition (12.2013)

Geographical Unit Land Required Land Acquired/Transferred

(acres) (acres) (%)

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 35,991 18,997 53 %

Private Lands 17,918 1,783 10 %

Government Lands 18,073 17,214 95 %

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

(KPK)

1,428 162 11 %

Private Lands 439 162 37 %

Government Lands 989 0 0 %

Total/Overall 37,419 19,159 51 %

Source: Written communications from WAPDA

Land acquisition, for the Project, is expected to be completed by June, 2014, according to the WAPDA officials.

b) Project Colony: For the proposed Project Colony in Thor Valley, located about

14 km upstream of the Dam Site, for accommodating the administrative and construction supervision staff of WAPDA and Consultants, 12 out of the total

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16 construction contract packages, have already been awarded and respective works are in progress. The progress of works varies from contract to contract; however, the overall achieved progress to-date is about 55%, according to WAPDA.

c) WAPDA Office Building in Chilas: Construction of a WAPDA Office Building in

Chilas, for the Project, is almost complete, with to-date progress of about

96%, according to WAPDA.

d) Composite Model Village-II at Harpan Das: Three Composite Model Villages

(each comprising 3 villages), at Thak Das, Harpan Das and Kino Das, are proposed to be developed, complete with all the basic infrastructure facilities and amenities, for the resettlement of 4228 affected households. Each affected household shall be given a residential plot, of one Kanal, free of cost.

This provision is in addition to the due compensation for their lands and assets, acquired for the Project.

The construction works for Composite Model Village–II (Harpan Das) has already been started. The works are planned through 6 construction contract packages, out of which 2 contracts have been awarded and are under execution. Overall progress, of the awarded contracts, is of the order of 5%.

e) Shatial-Thor Bypass on Karakorum Highway (KKH): It is planned that during construction of the Project, the existing KKH, in the vicinity of the main dam, shall be used for construction activities, while a Bypass on KKH (35 km long), from Shatial to Thor Nullah, is being executed by NHA, as WAPDA deposit work, which will be utilized for uninterrupted flow of the common traffic.

Contract has been awarded and work is being executed at site, with a to-date progress of about 5%, according to WAPDA.

f) Upgrading of KKH from Havelian to the Dam Site: Karakorum Highway (KKH), designated as National Highway N-35 (806 km), starts from Hasanabdal and ends at Khunjrab Pass, while passing through Havelian, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Batgram, Thakot, Besham, Pattan, Dasu, Basha, Chilas, Raikot and

Gilgit. It has already been established that the upgrading of the existing KKH, from Havelian to Dam Site (about 324 km), is an essential prerequisite, for

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Page 16 of 34 AAA-TCI the Project, to account for the additional traffic flows, particularly arising from the transport of large quantities of construction goods, resulting from the Project activities.

In this regard, according to WAPDA, upgrading works have already been completed, by National Highway Authority (NHA), from Havelian to Thakot.

This also includes a new Thakot Bridge, on River Indus, completed in 2010, which was executed by NHA, as Deposit Work from WAPDA.

The upgrading of the remaining portion of KKH, from Thahkot to Dam site, is planned to be executed by NHA, as Deposit Work from WAPDA.

g) Vocational Training Institute: As a prerequisite activity, for the Project, a

Vocational Training Institute has been established, by WAPDA, in Chilas city.

h) Bridge over Indus River downstream of Main Dam: A permanent access bridge over Indus River, downstream of Main Dam, for the contractor’s movement across the river, during the construction period and for the common public use later on, is part of the Project. Originally, this bridge was to be included in the regular construction contract package of the Project.

Now, WAPDA is planning to construct this bridge earlier as a prerequisite activity. Selection of the Consultant for procurement of the consultancy services for design, construction supervision and contract administration of this bridge is under process, according to WAPDA.

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4.0 ALREADY CONDUCTED MAIN STUDIES AND REPORTS

Following main studies, with particular reference to the environmental and social/cultural aspects, have already been carried out for the Project:

a) Feasibility Study (1984), by MONENCO (Montreal Engineering Company

Limited), in eleven volumes, containing Volume 11: Appendix G

“Environmental Considerations”

b) Feasibility Report (2002 – 2004), by NEAC Consultants (a joint-venture with lead role of NESPAK, Pakistan, comprising 2 foreign and 8 local companies), in twelve volumes, containing Volume 11 “EIA and Resettlement”

c) Review of Feasibility Report, Engineering Design, Tender

Drawings/Documents (2005 - 2008), by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC, a joint-venture with lead role of Lahmeyer International GmbH, Germany and comprising National Development Consultants – NDC, Pakistan, 1 other foreign and 2 other local companies), with the following main outputs delivered:

- Design Report on Project Civil Works, in seven volumes

- Design Report on Project Machinery & Equipment

- Bidding Documents for the Project

After conclusion of the aforementioned basic assignment in June 2008, the services of the DBC have continually been extended, by WAPDA, first through various addendums (from July 2008 to December 2012) and thereupon through retainer contracts (from January 2013 to March 2014), to provide follow-up and additional services. During this period, DBC has produced following two main documents, including annexes and appendices, related to the environment and resettlement aspects of the Project:

- Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report – 2010

- Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan (LARDP) – 2010

Improved Drafts, of the above two reports, with possibly some post-2010 modifications, have been provided by WAPDA.

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5.0 REVIEW METHODOLOGY

This review, in respect of the land use for the Project, and the associated impacts, is primarily concentrated on the EIA Report (Improved Draft). Though, where required, for the purpose of internal analysis, other relevant Project documents, are also consulted and referred to. A summary of the EIA Report, in this regard, is presented in Section 6.

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6.0 SUMMARY OF EIA REPORT ON LAND USE ASPECTS

6.1 GENERAL

Work on EIA was started in late 2005. Baseline field data collection works, on physical, biological and socio-economic environment, were carried out from 2006 to

2009.

The EIA Report contains the following main components, relevant to this Review:

a) Legislation and Regulatory Framework

b) Description of the Physical, Biological and Socio-economic Environment

(Baseline Data)

c) Anticipated Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures, on Physical, Biological and Socio-economic Environment, during Construction and

Operation Stages

d) Environmental Management Plan (EMP)

e) Environmental Monitoring

f) Environmental Research

g) Administrative Structure

6.2 LEGISLATION AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

Basic legal and national regulatory framework is enshrined in the Environmental

Protection Act (1997) of Pakistan. Accordingly, Diamer Basha Dam Project is classified as Category A, requiring a full Environmental Impact Assessment.

This EIA Report is basically guided by ADB’s ‘Safeguard Policy Statement’ of June

2009. Another relevant guideline is ‘Strategic Environmental Priorities’ recommended by the World Commission on Dams (2000) and relevant international environmental agreements, conventions and protocols for which Pakistan is a party.

6.3 ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS RELATED TO LAND USE

EIA Report presents, in detail, assessment of the anticipated environmental impacts of the Project, on the physical, biological and socio-economic environment, during construction and operation stages, as well as the measures for the mitigation of the adverse impacts. These impacts are categorized, depending upon their nature, in five types, as laid down in Table 2. The significance of an impact is determined, on the basis of one or more of the following factors:

a) Scale, reflecting the geographical territory or extension, of the impact

b) Magnitude, representing the quantum, severity or intensity of impact

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c) Duration, indicating temporal character of the impact, whether short or long term

d) Receptor Value, implying the sensitivity of the receptor of the impact

EIA Report also presents summary of the said environmental impacts, in a matrix form, in its annexures. Table 2 presents anticipated environmental impacts matrix, for the Project, related to the land use aspects.

Table 2

Diamer Basha Dam Project

Anticipated Environmental Impacts Matrix related to Land Use

(Source: EIA Report)

ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

CONSTRUCTION STAGE

Physical & Socio-economic Environment

Land, Soils and Geology

Loss of land X

Loss of soils X

Contamination of soils due to solid waste disposal X

Cultivation and Forestry

Damage to cultivation X

Damage to forestry activities X X

OPERATION STAGE

Physical & Socio-economic Environment

Land, Soils and Geology

Loss of land due to reservoir impounding X

Loss of soils due to submergence X

Downstream channel degradation X

Damage of geologic objects due to sliding along reservoir periphery X

Cultivation and Forestry

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ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

Damage to cultivation X

Enhancement of cultivation by recession agriculture X

Damage to trees and fruit production X

Damage to forestry activities X

A: Significant adverse impact

B: Potentially significant adverse impact, where design or/and operation solutions can be developed

C: Potentially adverse impact, requiring further studies

D: Minor or insignificant adverse impact

E: Significant environmental enhancement

6.4 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN

Environmental Management Plan (EMP) proposes measures to be taken for mitigation of the potential environmental damage, through the following means:

a) Appropriate provisions in the Bidding Documents of contractor(s)

b) Adequately monitoring and supervision of construction activities

c) Adoption of appropriate operation measures during post-construction period of the project

EMP shall be implemented basically, through certain specific plans for the key areas, which are described in the EIA Report. The plan related with the land use aspects is

“Integrated Land Management and Monitoring Plan”.

6.5 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

Environmental monitoring, whose requirements are laid down in the EIA Report, is proposed both at the construction and operation stages of the Project.

6.6 RESEARCH

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Research in the following areas, related to the land use aspects, which require some further investigations and studies, is recommended in the EIA Report:

a) River Channel Erosion Immediately Downstream of Reservoir

b) Sliding of Slopes and Rock Erosion along Reservoir Periphery after

Impoundment

6.7 ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE

It is proposed that an Environmental Management and Monitoring Cell (EMMC), under the General Manager (Field) of the Diamer Basha Dam Organization, shall be responsible to monitor implementation and mitigation tasks outlined in this EIA

Report, including EMP and RP. The EMMC shall also be part of regular set-up of

WAPDA, during operation stage of the Project.

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7.0 PROJECT LAND ACQUISITION REQUIREMENTS

Table 3 presents estimated land acquisition requirements, for the Project, broken by categories of the existing land use and the proposed land use, in terms of the main

Project components. These requirements, as originally reported in the EIA Report, were based on cadastral record surveys and Survey of Pakistan mapping on 5 m contour interval. The requirements, as laid down in Table 3, are latest, according to

WAPDA. Their distribution is slightly different, from those reported in the EIA Report.

Table 3

Diamer Basha Dam Project: Estimated Land Acquisition Requirements

# Project Component Area (acres) by Existing Land Use Total

(Proposed Land Use) SET CUL UNC BAR NAT (acres)

A Dam and Reservoir 96 2,699 2,580 8,550 18,251 32,176

1 Dam & Appurtenant Structures 0 0 0 62 1,740 1,802

a) Within Reservoir (U/S of Dam) 0 0 0 62 1,200 1,262

b) Outside Reservoir (D/S of Dam) 0 0 0 0 540 540

2 Reservoir (up-to 1170 MASL) 96 2,699 2,580 8,488 16,511 30,374

B Others (Outside 1170 MASL Zone) 0 314 31 4,087 811 5,243

1 WAPDA Colony in THOR Valley 0 139 10 2 0 151

2 Composite Model Villages 0 0 0 3,510 0 3,510

a) Thak Das 0 0 0 1,522 0 1,522

b) Harpan Das 0 0 0 1,047 0 1,047

c) Buner/Kino Das 0 0 0 941 0 941

3 Rock Carvings Exhibition Center

(Chilas Town)

0 2 0 0 0 2

4 Contractor’s Camps (Downstream of

Dam on Left Bank Side)

0 0 0 427 0 427

5 Quarry Areas (Above 1170 MASL) 0 24 0 0 0 24

6 Relocation of KKH 0 84 21 148 317 570

a) Shatial – Thor Bypass (35 km) 0 2 10 90 102

b) Thor to Raikot Bridge (about 100 km) 0 82 11 148 227 468

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7 Right Bank Periphery Road (140 km) 0 31 0 0 494 525

8 Miscellaneous & Unforeseen 0 34 0 0 0 34

TOTAL 96 3,013 2,611 12,637 19,062 37,419

SET: Areas under Housing (72 acres) & Commercial Objects (24 acres) including Infrastructure

CUL: Cultivated/Agricultural Lands (Private Lands)

UNC: Uncultivated, Cultivable Lands – Mostly around Villages (Private Lands)

BAR: Barren Lands & Pastures (Private Lands)

NAT: Areas under River & Natural Water Courses, Rocks and Foot-hills (Government Lands)

1 Acre = 43,560 SFT = 0.4046 Hectare

Source: Monthly Report No 2 (November, 2013) by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC)

Table 4 presents distribution of the total estimated land acquisition requirements, for the Project, by ownership status and geographical units.

Table 4

Diamer Basha Dam Project: Distribution of Land Acquisition Requirements

Geographical Unit Land Acquisition Requirements (acres)

Private Government Total

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 17,918 18,073 35,991

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) 439 989 1,428

Total 18,357 19,062 37,419

1 Acre = 43,560 SFT = 0.4046 Hectare

Source: Written communications from WAPDA

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8.0 LAND USE RELATED PROJECT MAPS

This section covers, as required by the TOR of this consultancy assignment, certain land use related Project maps, which are annexed to this Component Review Report.

These maps are sorted out of the already available latest documents, of the Project and are presented herein, as annexures, as follows:

Annexure # & Title Key Contents and Features

01 Access to Project Site

Map

General location of the Project area

02.01 Land Use Map 01 Existing land use of the Project area

02.02 Land Use Map 02 Existing settlements in the Project area

02.03 Land Use Map 03 Reservoir boundary at FRL: 1160 MASL

02.04 Land Use Map 04 Land acquisition zone (upto 1170 MASL) boundary

02.05 Land Use Map 05 Existing Karakorum Highway (KKH)

02.06 Land Use Map 06 Relocated Karakorum Highway (KKH)

Existing settlements in the Project area

03.01 Project Area Map 01 Reservoir boundary at FRL: 1160 MASL

03.02 Project Area Map 02 Land acquisition zone (upto 1170 MASL) boundary

03.03 Project Area Map 03 Existing Karakorum Highway (KKH)

03.04 Project Area Map 04 Relocated Karakorum Highway (KKH)

Proposed Right Bank Periphery Road

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9.0 REVIEW ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

9.1 GENERAL

From the detailed review of the Project EIA Report and other related documents, we are of the view that the EIA is substantially comprehensive and extensive, with regard to the land use considerations, except certain areas and aspects, for which concerns and proposals are laid down in Sections 9.3 to 9.5, of this Review Report.

9.2 LOSS OF LAND

As shown in Table 3, a total of 37,419 acres of land is estimated to be required, for the Project, out of which a major part would be either submerged (at Full Reservoir

Level – FRL: 1160 MASL), in the reservoir, or reserved as free board for the reservoir, or used for the permanent structures and appurtenances, directly related with the dam. A smaller part of the area is required, for other associated permanent or temporary facilities.

Existing land use of the area, required for the Project, is that only about 8% is under housing, commercial objects and cultivation. Rangelands and postures, with vegetation cover of more than 10%, are of the order of only 0.5%. All the remaining area, which is more than 90%, is barren, owing to the soil structure and arid climatic conditions (annual precipitation < 200 mm), and comprises river and stream beds, sandy lands, and rocky areas, almost without or with very sparse vegetation. There are no forests in this area, since these only occur at higher elevations (above

2,000 MASL).

In the EIA Report, the impact, related to loss of land, is graded as “Significant

Adverse Impact”, as far as the quantum of land involved is concerned, with a qualifying statement that most of the land lost, is of minor significance, from the point of view of usefulness as well as environmental and ecological value. This

Review concurs with this assessment.

9.3 RELOCATION OF KKH AND PROVISION OF RIGHT BANK PERIPHERY ROAD

The following two roads, to be constructed, are important components of the

Project:

a) Karakorum Highway (KKH), with a total length of about 140 km, to be relocated at a higher elevation, to replace the existing KKH, which would be submerged (Submerged Length: 100 km) in the dam reservoir, divided in the following two components/stretches:

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Shatial-Thor Bypass (35 km), which is presently under execution, by NHA as

WAPDA deposit work, as described in Section 3 (e)

Thor to Raikot Bridge (about 100 km)

b) Right Bank Periphery Road (140 km), from proposed Bridge over Indus River downstream of Main Dam, as described in Section 3 (h), to the upper end of the reservoir

We are of the view that both of the aforementioned roads are, in themselves, large projects, with their own peculiar environmental issues and concerns, particularly arising from the linear nature of these works, high altitude, rugged terrain & topography and susceptibility to land slides. The coverage of the environmental aspects of these roads, in the Project EIA Report, is not adequate and substantial, in our opinion. It is proposed, therefore, that separate and independent EIA shall be carried out for these road projects. The assessments, made in the Project EIA Report, in this respect, shall be taken only as umbrella provisions.

9.4 PROJECT IMPACTS ON CULTIVATION AND AGRICULTURE

The summary of the qualitative assessments, made in the Project EIA Report, about the impact of Project on cultivation, during operation stage, is as follows:

Damage to cultivation Significant adverse impact

Enhancement of cultivation by recession agriculture

Significant environmental enhancement

We are of the view that a consolidated and collective impact of the Project on cultivation, at local as well as country level, in quantitative terms, is warranted and shall be the part of the EIA Report. These assessments may be made, in parallel, in terms of the following two parameters:

a) Impacts on cultivated lands (change of land use)

b) Impacts on agricultural production, in terms of certain equivalent crop as well as in monetary terms, based upon estimated potential agricultural yields and the areas under cultivation

The afore-proposed quantitative assessments shall take into account the following potential land use or other changes, in this respect:

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a) Loss of Cultivated Lands in the Project: The requisite data on this adverse impact is already available.

b) Potential Recession Agriculture: It is established that, under routine annual operation, the normal filling of the reservoir would be during the high runoff period, from June to August, with an average filling period of 100 days, while drawdown may be from September to May, to supplement low flow period water supply. Consequently reservoir water levels would be going through an annual fluctuation of 100 meters, between Minimum Operation Level (MOL) of 1,060 MASL and Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 1,160 MASL.

During the drawdown season, a total area of about 6,750 hectares (16,700 acres) will be vacated. It is expected that whereas the lower portions of the reservoir will remain exposed for only 2 to 3 months; the higher parts of the reservoir may remain dry for a period of 5-6 months and thus become available for recession agriculture for short or full season crops, which may be utilized through coordinated public/private sector efforts.

The quantum of the cultivable land, available annually for recession agriculture, needs to be established, from the available data, for this beneficial impact.

c) Proposed Agricultural Plots for the Affected People: In accordance with the

Project EIA Report and Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan

(LARDP), there is provision that Project Affected People shall be offered 4-kanal agricultural plots (fully developed, graded and provided with irrigation water network), in the close vicinity of possibly one Composite Model Village, on payment basis. However, whereas the total land acquisition requirements, for the three Composite Model Villages, which is 3,510 acres, is reported;

total area of the proposed agricultural plots is not mentioned, anywhere. This area needs to be established and documented, as a beneficial impact.

d) Availability of Additional Irrigation Water from Project: One of the key features of the Project is that it will make available additional surface water supplies, which can be used for irrigation purposes, in downstream areas of

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Pakistan, through the existing or future irrigation water networks. This additional water may either be used for augmenting supplies to the existing agricultural lands and/or may lead to the increase in the downstream command areas.

This very significant and key aspect has not been properly explored and assessed in the Project EIA Report. It is proposed that quantum of the potential additional irrigation water supplies, which would result from the operation of the Project, on the long-term basis, shall be established. While making these estimations, provision of maintaining minimum ecological flows in the reach of Indus River, downstream of Kotri Barrage, which aspect is discussed in more detail in the Component Environmental Review Report

“Project Impact on the Natural Environment”, shall also be taken into account. Thereupon, potential impact of these irrigation water supplies shall be assessed, in quantitative terms, in terms of possible increase in the cultivated lands, in the downstream areas, as well as on the agricultural production, of the country.

9.5 SLOPE STABILITY AND LANDSLIDES ALONG RESERVOIR PERIPHERY

9.5.1 REPORT ON LANDSLIDE AND SLOPE STABILITY

DBC has prepared a “Report on Landslide and Slope Stability”, for the Project, in

2008, which includes the following:

a) Identification of various critical locations along the reservoir periphery or shoreline, which are susceptible and prone to landslides, resulting from initial reservoir impoundment, seasonal reservoir water level fluctuation of 100 m

(between FRL of 1,160 MASL and MOL of 1,060 MASL) or seismic activity

b) Slope stability analyses

c) Assessment of the associated potential hazards and risks

Out of the total reservoir periphery of about 190 km, the Report identifies 101 km, as slide-prone shoreline length, which primarily comprises of moraine or river deposits, with the sliding potential and associated hazard, under impoundment and submergence conditions, assessed as below:

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a) Submerged slopes and slopes with an impounded toe having an overall inclination of less than some 25°, estimated to be 73 km in length, will remain globally stable under impoundment.

b) Submerged slopes and slopes with an impounded toe having an overall inclination of some 25° to 40°, estimated to be 20 km in length, will be flattened to a certain extent by collapsing of steep or weak sections. The slopes may globally slide and adjust to a stable inclination of about 30°.

c) Submerged slopes and slopes with an impounded toe having an overall inclination steeper than some 40°, estimated to be 8 km in length, will collapse under initial impoundment. For a high slope, its failure will take place in several steps of partial slides, until after impoundment, a slope with a sufficient global stability

(approximately 30°) had been established.

Most of the slide-prone areas are located from 40 km upstream of the dam, until the end of the reservoir, with similar proportions on the left and right bank.

The Report concludes the hazard assessment, in this regard, as follows:

a) During Initial Impoundment: The landslides and collapses of slopes that have to be expected during impounding are predictable in terms of location and time of occurrence. Respective precautions and awareness during impounding in the identified sections are limited to the location and the period of initial impounding and therefore the landslides during impounding are not regarded as hazardous.

b) After Impoundment: The more critical and particularly severe events are dynamic changes of the shoreline as a consequence of earthquakes, which may occur after a longer period of operation. Depending on the magnitude of the earthquake and the actual reservoir level, it might affect a number of slopes that are steeper than the permissible inclinations. Also the mass of the slide will be of greater volume than that of the collapses during initial impoundment.

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It is the normal procedure when creating a reservoir that after impoundment a partial protection zone of the shoreline is established to regulate access to the reservoir, the establishment of infrastructure and the erection of settlements as part of the environmental management of the reservoir. Set up of this partial protection zone needs consideration of the hazard “future landslides due to earthquakes” and the protection zone might have to be extended in its distance to the reservoir in the areas prone to such landslides.

9.5.2 ASSESSMENT OF EIA REPORT

The Project EIA Report, after presenting certain data and summarized inferences from the “Report on Landslide and Slope Stability”, concludes its assessment, as follows:

“Assessments revealed low risks of sliding, provided the locations are marked at the surface and prohibited for any construction or human activity.”

9.5.3 OUR REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT

We are of the view that the summary assessment, made in the Project EIA Report, underrates the significance of the hazard and risks, particularly associated with the potential post-impoundment seismic-induced landslides, along the periphery of the reservoir, as laid down in the “Report on Landslide and Slope Stability”.

It is proposed that the EIA Report shall cover and include the following:

a. The maps showing, clearly delineated, extent of the landslides-susceptible hazard zones, along the periphery of the reservoir, under initial impoundment and/or under post-impoundment seismic-induced disturbances, based upon the guidelines provided in the “Report on Landslide and Slope Stability” and/or further geotechnical investigations and analysis, where required

b. The maps showing and demonstrating that no planned permanent structure or facility lies within or close to the landslides-susceptible hazard zones, as determined under (a) above

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c. Formulation and statement of the policy, regarding the landslides-susceptible hazard zones, along the periphery of the reservoir

d. Possible extension in the present land acquisition requirements, presumably beyond the zone of 1170 MASL, to cater for the hazards and risk, arising out of the potential landslides, and proposed time schedule, for acquisition of such additional land, which probably can be acquired in future, at Project operation stages

e. Changes and modifications, in the already proposed associated mitigation measures, in the light of the afore recommended revised assessments

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10.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Feasibility Study (1984), by MONENCO: The report comprises eleven volumes.

Appendix G of Volume 11: “Environmental Considerations” covers the environmental aspects of the Project, to a limited extent. Obviously, the environmental considerations, presented in this report, are now totally outdated;

but they are of a historical significance, in the context of the Project.

2. Feasibility Report (2002 – 2004), by NEAC Consultants: The report contains twelve volumes. Volume 11: “EIA and Resettlement” covers different aspects of the environmental impact assessment and resettlement, which are possible to be accounted for at the Project feasibility stage, without the advantage of the detailed engineering designs.

3. Review of Feasibility Report, Engineering Design, Tender Drawings/Documents

(2005 - 2008), by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC): Following are the main documents produced and delivered:

a) Design Report on Project Civil Works, in seven volumes

b) Design Report on Project Machinery & Equipment

c) Bidding Documents for the Project

4. Report on Landslide and Slope Stability (2008), by Diamer Basha Consultants

(DBC): This report includes engineering analyses and assessment of potential hazards and risks, related to the landslides along reservoir periphery or shoreline, which may result from initial reservoir impoundment, seasonal reservoir water level fluctuations between FRL and MOL or seismic activity.

5. Environmental Impact Assessment Report (2010): Improved Draft, by Diamer

Basha Consultants (DBC): This report is based upon the engineering design of the

Project and covers, under a standard format, legislation & regulatory framework, description of the baseline environment, anticipated environmental impacts & corresponding mitigation measures, on physical, biological & socio-economic environment, during construction & operation stages, environmental management plan (EMP), monitoring, research, and institutional arrangements.

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6. Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan (2010): Improved Draft, by

Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC): This plan is closely linked with the EIA Report and covers policy, institutional, legal, social, economic, implementation and monitoring aspects, related to the land & assets acquisition, compensation, resettlement & relocation of Project affected people, restoration of livelihood means & infrastructure and general area development, as part of the Project.

ANNEXURES

Annexure 01

Access to Project Site Map

Annexures 02.01 to 02.06

Land Use Map 01 to 06

El. 1,160 m asl

Raikot Bridge

El. 1,170 m asl

RELOCATED KKH

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PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER

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LANDUSE MAP

PROJECT AREA

SHEET NO. 6 OF 6ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT

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Project Area Map 01 to 04

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ROCK CARVINGS

IN THE RESERVOIR AREA

Sheet 2 of 4Source: Report on 'Basha Diamer Dam Project - Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment' (CHIA) by Rogers Kolachi Khan & Associates

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ROCK CARVINGS

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Source: Report on 'Basha Diamer Dam Project - Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment' (CHIA) by Rogers Kolachi Khan & Associates

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Sheet 4 of 4 Source: Report on 'Basha Diamer Dam Project - Cultural Heritage Impact Assessment' (CHIA) by Rogers Kolachi Khan & Associates