Project_Impact_on_the_Natural_Environment_-_Final_Report_(1).pdf

IQC 391 – I – 11 – 00003

AID – 391 – 14 – 00001

PROJECT IMPACT ON THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

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Disclaimer:

This Project is made possible by the support of the American people through the United

States Agency for International Development (USAID). The opinion expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID, A. A. Associates or

Techno-Consult International.

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of International Tender document for the Diamer Bhasha Dam Project

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Data Collection, Review and Preparation of

International Tender Document for the Diamer Basha Dam Project

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL/CULTURAL IMPACT REVIEW

OF THE PROJECT ACTIVITIES

PROJECT IMPACT ON THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

Table of Content

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

1.0 GENERAL

2.0 PROJECT BRIEF

2.1 SALIENT PROJECT FEATURES

2.2 MAIN BENEFITS OF THE PROJECT

3.0 UPDATED STATUS OF PROJECT PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES

4.0 ALREADY CONDUCTED MAIN STUDIES AND REPORTS

5.0 REVIEW METHODOLOGY

6.0 SUMMARY OF EIA REPORT ON NATURAL ENVIRONMENT ASPECTS

6.1 GENERAL

6.2 LEGISLATION AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

6.3 ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS RELATED TO THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

6.4 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN

6.5 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

6.6 RESEARCH

6.7 ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE

7.0 CERTAIN BASIC INFORMATION RELEVANT TO THIS REVIEW

7.1 CLIMATE

7.2 EXISTING LAND USE

7.3 INDUS RIVER AT DAM SITE

7.4 RESERVOIR OPERATION AND DOWNSTREAM CHANGES IN MORPHOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

7.4.1 Initial Impoundment

7.4.2 Normal Annual Reservoir Operation

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8.0 REVIEW, ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

8.1 OVERVIEW

8.2 IMPACTS ON ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE PROPOSED DAM

8.3 IMPACTS ON FLOWS AND ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF KOTRI BARRAGE

8.3.1 Background

8.3.2 Assessment by EIA Report and Our View

8.4 IMPACTS ON AMPHIBIANS AND REPTILES

8.4.1 Certain Background Information

8.4.2 Assessment by EIA Report and Our View

8.5 IMPACTS OF CONVERSION OF RIVER INDUS INTO RESERVOIR

8.5.1 Overview

8.5.2 Our Proposals

8.6 IMPACT ON FLOODS IN DOWNSTREAM AREAS

8.7 IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER IN SURROUNDING AREAS

8.8 IMPACTS ON LOCAL CLIMATE

8.9 IMPACTS ON GLOBAL CLIMATE

8.9.1 Background

8.9.2 Summary of Assessment by EIA Report

8.9.3 Our View and Proposals

9.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY

LIST OF TABLES

1 Diamer Basha Dam Project: Current Status of Land Acquisition (12.2013)

2 DBDP: Anticipated Environmental Impacts Matrix related to the Natural Environment

3 Initial Staged Filling of Diamer Basha Reservoir

4 IUCN Categories of the Nature Conservation Status of Species

5 Amphibians and Reptiles in the Project Area

6 Old and New Scientific Names of Amphibians and Reptiles in the Project Area

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Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

BCM Billion Cubic Meters

BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand

CH4 Methane

CITES

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and

Flora

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CR Critically Endangered

D/S Downstream

DBC Diamer Basha Consultants

DBDP Diamer Basha Dam Project

DD Data Deficient

DO Dissolved Oxygen

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EMMC Environmental Monitoring and Management Cell (of WAPDA)

EMP Environmental Management Plan

EN Endangered

EW Extinct in the Wild

EX Extinct

FRL Full Reservoir Level

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GHG Greenhouse Gases

GWh Giga Watt Hour

GWP Global Warming Potential

HC Hydrocarbons

IPOE International Panel of Experts

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

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KKH Karakorum Highway

KPK Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

LARDP Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan

LC Least Concern

MAF Million Acre-Feet

MASL Meters above Mean Sea Level

MOL Minimum Operating Level (of Reservoir)

MONENCO Montreal Engineering Company Limited

MW Mega Watt

N2O Nitrous Oxide

NE Not Evaluated

NEAC NESPAK – ACE Joint Venture Consultants

NHA National Highway Authority

NOX Oxides of Nitrogen

NT Near Threatened

PM Particulate Matter

PMF Probable Maximum Flood

RCC Roller Compacted Concrete

RPM Revolution per Minute

SOX Oxides of Sulfur

TOR Terms of Reference

U/S Upstream

UNEP United Nations Environment Program

VU Vulnerable

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WB The World Bank

WCD World Commission on Dams

WWF World Wildlife Fund for Nature

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1.0 GENERAL

USAID-Pakistan has entrusted, under a consultancy contract, the Contractor to carryout a Study “Data and Information Collection and Review and International

Tender Preparation for the Diamer Basha Dam Project Studies”, with explicit Terms of Reference (TOR).

One important part of the Main Study is “Environmental and Social/Cultural Impact

Review of the Project Activities”. The objective of this part of the Study, in accordance with USAID, is to serve as input to an international Terms of Reference, prepared by USAID, for the environmental and social/cultural impact assessment of the Diamer Basha Dam Project (hereinafter called DBDP or the Project). The main scope of this part of the Study is summarized as follows:

a) Collection, review, validation, gap analysis and assessing conformity to the latest applicable requirements of The World Bank (WB), Asian Development

Bank (ADB), World Commission on Dams (WCD) and other relevant international and local agencies, of the existing studies, reports and plans of the Project, with particular emphasis on issues included in the Employer’s

TOR, with the assistance, in form of interviews and meetings with WAPDA officials and others concerned, where required

b) All the review and analysis to be based upon information available from secondary sources, with no need for collection of any field information

c) Providing a bibliography with a short summary of each document collected

This Component Environmental Review Report “Project Impact on the Natural

Environment” is part of “Environmental and Social/Cultural Impact Review of the

Project Activities”, which thereupon forms part of the Main Study Report.

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2.0 PROJECT BRIEF

2.1 Salient Project Features

Concerned Authorities

Sponsored By Government of Pakistan

Execution WAPDA

Operation and Maintenance WAPDA

Concerned Federal Ministry Ministry of Water and Power

River Indus

Location of Dam on River Indus About 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam

About 82 km upstream of Dasu Town

About 40 km downstream of Chilas Town

About 180 km downstream of Gilgit Town

Hydrology

Catchment Area 153,200 km2

River Discharge (Mean Annual) 62 billion m3

Estimated Sediments Load (Mean Annual) 196 million tons

Flood Assessment

Diversion Flood (1 in 100 years) 14,330 m3/s

Basic Design Flood-1 (1 in 10000 years) 20,200 m3/s

Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) 49,410 m3/s

Main Dam

Type Roller Compacted Concrete (RCC)

Maximum Height above Rock Foundation 272 m

Flow Diversion System

Diversion Tunnels (Right Side) 2 Numbers

Diversion Channel (Right Side) 1 Number

Upstream & Downstream Cofferdams

Upstream Cofferdam Level 977.5 MASL

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Downstream Cofferdam Level 973.0 MASL

Main Spillway

Crest Level 1145.5 MASL

Numbers of Gates 14

Size of Gates 11.5 m x 16.24 m

Flow Capacity 18,128 m3/s at FRL of 1160 MASL

Reservoir

Crest Level 1170 MASL

Full Reservoir Level (FRL) 1160 MASL

Minimum Operating Level (MOL) 1060 MASL

Gross Storage 10.0 BCM (8.1 MAF)

Live Storage 7.9 BCM (6.4 MAF)

Length of Reservoir at FRL 93.50 km (Up to RAIKOT Bridge on KKH)

Length of Reservoir at MOL 68.61 km

Reservoir Area at FRL 115.13 km2

Reservoir Area at MOL 47.61 km2

Outlets in Dam Body

Low Level 2

Flushing 5

Flushing Tunnels

Right Bank 1 (By Conversion of 1 Diversion Tunnel)

Left Bank 1 (Underneath the Power Intake)

Powerhouse(s)

Type Underground

Location One each on Right and Left Side

Total Installed Capacity 4500 MW (2 x 2250 MW)

Numbers of Units 12 (6 x 375 MW in each Powerhouse)

Design Discharge of Each Powerhouse 1,481 m3/s

Turbines

Type FRANCIS (Vertical Shafts)

Design Net Head 170.5 m

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Maximum & Minimum Operating Net

Heads

204.2 m & 100.5 m

Reservoir Water Level for Design Head 1130 MASL

Unit Discharge at Design Head 246.8 m3/s

Synchronous Speed 166.67 RPM

Tail Water Level

Minimum 947 MASL

@ Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) 970 MASL

Generators

Type Semi umbrella type

Maximum Continuous Rating (MCR) 416 MVA

Rated Power Factor 0.9

Generation Voltage 21 kV

Rated Frequency 50 Hz

Output at Generator Terminal 375 MW

Generator Step-Up Transformers

Number of Units 2 x 3 x 6

Number of Spare Units 2

Type Single Phase

Type of Cooling OFWF

Rated Primary Voltage 21 kV

Rated Secondary Voltage 765 kV

Rated Frequency 50 Hz

Average Annual Electricity Generation

At Diamer Basha Dam 18,097 GWh

Additional at Tarbela Dam 1,111 GWh

Total 19,208 GWh

Land Acquisition for All Purposes [1]

Total 37,419 acres

Distribution by Existing Land Use

Areas under Housing including

Infrastructure

72 acres (0.19 %)

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Area under Commercial Objects 24 acres (0.06 %)

Cultivated/Agricultural Lands 3,013 acres (8.05 %)

Uncultivated, Cultivable Lands 2,611 acres (7.0 %)

Barren Lands & Pastures 12,637 acres (33.8 %)

Areas under River, Streams, Rocks 19,062 acres (50.9 %)

Distribution by Project Components

Dam & Appurtenant Structures 1,802 acres (4.8 %)

Reservoir (up-to 1170 MASL) 30,374 acres (81.2 %)

Others (Outside 1170 MASL Zone) 5,243 acres (14.0 %)

Distribution by Geographical Units

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 35,991 acres (96.2 %)

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) 1,428 acres (3.8 %)

Distribution by Ownership

Private Lands 18,357 acres (49 %)

Government Lands 19,062 acres (51 %)

Environmental Aspects [2]

Numbers of Villages Affected 32

Numbers of Households Affected 4,228

Estimated Affected Population 30,350

Prehistoric Rock Carvings 33,000

Karakorum Highway (KKH)

Submerged Length 100 km

Length to be Relocated 140 km

Sources:

[1] Monthly Report No 2 (November, 2013) by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC), aided with certain written communications from WAPDA

[2] Project Brief provided by WAPDA (Status updated to 11.2013)

Remaining Information: EIA Report (Improved Draft): 2010: Volume II: Annex C-1

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2.2 Main Benefits of the Project

a) Availability of about 6.4 MAF (Reservoir Live Storage) of annual surface water, for supplementing irrigation water supplies to Pakistan

b) Providing about 18,100 GWh of electric energy per annum, from its installed capacity of 4,500 MW, as well as enabling about 1,110 GWh of additional generation at Tarbela Dam, due to conjunctive operation of the two reservoirs

c) Increase in useful life of the downstream Tarbela reservoir, by about 35 years, as well as of the future downstream reservoirs, by trapping large amount of sediment

d) Alleviation of the flood damages of the Indus River, particularly in the reach from Kalabagh to Guddu Barrage

e) Significant improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the otherwise backward areas and people, in the vicinity of the Project

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3.0 UPDATED STATUS OF PROJECT PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES

Many pre-requisite activities, in respect of the Project, are presently in progress, with their current status as follows:

a) Land Acquisition: The process of acquisition of land (both government and private), for the Project, was started, in accordance with the applicable local laws and procedures, in 2010. The process involves WAPDA and the respective governments of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

(KPK). Table 1 presents the current status of land acquisition, as in December

2013.

Table 1

Diamer Basha Dam Project: Current Status of Land Acquisition (12.2013)

Geographical Unit Land Required Land Acquired/Transferred

(acres) (acres) (%)

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 35,991 18,997 53 %

Private Lands 17,918 1,783 10 %

Government Lands 18,073 17,214 95 %

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

(KPK)

1,428 162 11 %

Private Lands 439 162 37 %

Government Lands 989 0 0 %

Total/Overall 37,419 19,159 51 %

Source: Written communications from WAPDA

Land acquisition, for the Project, is expected to be completed by June, 2014, according to the WAPDA officials.

b) Project Colony: For the proposed Project Colony in Thor Valley, located about

14 km upstream of the Dam Site, for accommodating the administrative and construction supervision staff of WAPDA and Consultants, 12 out of the total

16 construction contract packages, have already been awarded and

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Page 14 of 45 AAA-TCI respective works are in progress. The progress of works varies from contract to contract; however, the overall achieved progress to-date is about 55%, according to WAPDA.

c) WAPDA Office Building in Chilas: Construction of a WAPDA Office Building in

Chilas, for the Project, is almost complete, with to-date progress of about

96%, according to WAPDA.

d) Composite Model Village-II at Harpan Das: Three Composite Model Villages

(each comprising 3 villages), at Thak Das, Harpan Das and Kino Das, are proposed to be developed, complete with all the basic infrastructure facilities and amenities, for the resettlement of 4228 affected households. Each affected household shall be given a residential plot, of one kanal, free of cost.

This provision is in addition to the due compensation for their lands and assets, acquired for the Project.

The construction works for Composite Model Village–II (Harpan Das) has already been started. The works are planned through 6 construction contract packages, out of which 2 contracts have been awarded and are under execution. Overall progress, of the awarded contracts, is of the order of 5%.

e) Shatial-Thor Bypass on Karakorum Highway (KKH): It is planned that during construction of the Project, the existing KKH, in the vicinity of the main dam, shall be used for construction activities, while a Bypass on KKH (35 km long), from Shatial to Thor Nullah, is being executed by NHA, as WAPDA deposit work, which will be utilized for uninterrupted flow of the common traffic.

Contract has been awarded and work is being executed at site, with a to-date progress of about 5%, according to WAPDA.

f) Upgrading of KKH from Havelian to the Dam Site: Karakorum Highway (KKH), designated as National Highway N-35 (806 km), starts from Hasanabdal and ends at Khunjrab Pass, while passing through Havelian, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Batgram, Thakot, Besham, Pattan, Dasu, Basha, Chilas, Raikot and

Gilgit. It has already been established that the upgrading of the existing KKH, from Havelian to Dam Site (about 324 km), is an essential prerequisite, for the Project, to account for the additional traffic flows, particularly arising from the transport of large quantities of construction goods, resulting from the Project activities.

In this regard, according to WAPDA, upgrading works have already been completed, by National Highway Authority (NHA), from Havelian to Thakot.

This also includes a new Thakot Bridge, on River Indus, completed in 2010, which was executed by NHA, as Deposit Work from WAPDA.

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The upgrading of the remaining portion of KKH, from Thahkot to Dam site, is planned to be executed by NHA, as Deposit Work from WAPDA.

g) Vocational Training Institute: As a prerequisite activity, for the Project, a

Vocational Training Institute has been established, by WAPDA, in Chilas city.

h) Bridge over Indus River downstream of Main Dam: A permanent access bridge over Indus River, downstream of Main Dam, for the contractor’s movement across the river, during the construction period and for the common public use later on, is part of the Project. Originally, this bridge was to be included in the regular construction contract package of the Project.

Now, WAPDA is planning to construct this bridge earlier as a prerequisite activity. Selection of the Consultant for procurement of the consultancy services for design, construction supervision and contract administration of this bridge is under process, according to WAPDA.

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4.0 ALREADY CONDUCTED MAIN STUDIES AND REPORTS

Following main studies, with particular reference to the environmental and social/cultural aspects, have already been carried out for the Project:

a) Feasibility Study (1984), by MONENCO (Montreal Engineering Company

Limited), in eleven volumes, containing Volume 11: Appendix G

“Environmental Considerations”

b) Feasibility Report (2002 – 2004), by NEAC Consultants (a joint-venture with lead role of NESPAK, Pakistan, comprising 2 foreign and 8 local companies), in twelve volumes, containing Volume 11 “EIA and Resettlement”

c) Review of Feasibility Report, Engineering Design, Tender

Drawings/Documents (2005 - 2008), by Diamer Basha Consultants (DBC, a joint-venture with lead role of Lahmeyer International GmbH, Germany and comprising National Development Consultants – NDC, Pakistan, 1 other foreign and 2 other local companies), with the following main outputs delivered:

-Design Report on Project Civil Works, in seven volumes

-Design Report on Project Machinery & Equipment

-Bidding Documents for the Project

After conclusion of the afore mentioned basic assignment in June 2008, the services of the DBC have continually been extended, by WAPDA, first through various addendums (from July 2008 to December 2012) and thereupon through retainer contracts (from January 2013 to March 2014), to provide follow-up and additional services. During this period, DBC has produced following two main documents, including annexes and appendices, related to the environment and resettlement aspects of the Project:

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report – 2010

Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Development Plan (LARDP) – 2010

Improved Drafts, of the above two reports, with possibly some post-2010 modifications, have been provided by WAPDA.

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5.0 REVIEW METHODOLOGY

This review, in respect of the Project impacts on natural environment, is primarily concentrated on the EIA Report (Improved Draft). Though, where required, for the purpose of internal analysis, other relevant Project documents, are also consulted and referred to. A summary of the EIA Report, in this regard, is presented in

Section 6.

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6.0 SUMMARY OF EIA REPORT ON NATURAL ENVIRONMENT ASPECTS

6.1 General

Work on EIA was started in late 2005. Baseline field data collection works, on physical, biological and socio-economic environment, were carried out from 2006 to

2009.

The EIA Report contains the following main components, relevant to this Review:

a) Legislation and Regulatory Framework

b) Description of the Physical, Biological and Socio-economic Environment

(Baseline Data)

c) Anticipated Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures, on Physical, Biological and Socio-economic Environment, during Construction and

Operation Stages

d) Environmental Management Plan (EMP)

e) Environmental Monitoring

f) Environmental Research

g) Administrative Structure

6.2 Legislation and Regulatory Framework

Basic legal and national regulatory framework is enshrined in the Environmental

Protection Act (1997) of Pakistan. Accordingly, Diamer Basha Dam Project is classified as Category A, requiring a full Environmental Impact Assessment.

This EIA Report is basically guided by ADB’s ‘Safeguard Policy Statement’ of June

2009. Another relevant guideline is ‘Strategic Environmental Priorities’ recommended by the World Commission on Dams (2000) and relevant international environmental agreements, conventions and protocols for which Pakistan is a party.

6.3 Anticipated Environmental Impacts related to the Natural Environment

EIA Report presents, in detail, assessment of the anticipated environmental impacts of the Project, on the physical, biological and socio-economic environment, during construction and operation stages, as well as the measures for the mitigation of the adverse impacts. These impacts are categorized, depending upon their nature, in five types, as laid down in Table 2. The significance of an impact is determined, on the basis of one or more of the following factors:

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a) Scale, reflecting the geographical territory or extension, of the impact

b) Magnitude, representing the quantum, severity or intensity of impact

c) Duration, indicating temporal character of the impact, whether short or long term

d) Receptor Value, implying the sensitivity of the receptor of the impact

As an input to the EIA Report, following special studies, included as annexures to the

EIA Report, were carried out, by subject experts, in respect of the natural environment:

a) Water Resources of Project Area

b) Plants and Vegetation in the Project Area

c) Insects in the Project Area

d) Amphibians and Reptiles in the Project Area

e) Birds of the Project Area

f) Fishes of the Project Area

EIA Report also presents summary of the said environmental impacts, in a matrix form, in its annexures. Table 2 presents anticipated environmental impacts matrix, for the Project, related to the natural environment.

Table 2

Diamer Basha Dam Project

Anticipated Environmental Impacts Matrix related to the Natural Environment

(Source: EIA Report)

ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

CONSTRUCTION STAGE

Physical & Socio-economic Environment

Water

Change of Indus River hydrograph X

Overuse of Indus River and nullah water X

Damage of groundwater resources and springs X

Pollution of Nullahs/Indus River X

Climate

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ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

Change of local, regional and global climate X

Biological Environment

Natural Vegetation and Plants

Loss and degradation of natural plants X

Wildlife

Damage of insect wildlife X

Damage to amphibians & reptiles (including some endemic reptile species)

X

Threats to bird wildlife (by damaging nests and due to noise & vibration)

X

Hunting associated with project staff and workers X

Natural Fish Stocks

Degradation of natural fish stocks by river diversion including cofferdams

X

Degradation of fish stocks by water pollution X

Downstream Ecosystems

Degradation of mangrove and riverine ecosystems in downstream

Pakistan

X

OPERATION STAGE

Physical & Socio-economic Environment

Water

Loss of groundwater and springs due to reservoir impounding X

Downstream water reduction during initial reservoir filling X X

Downstream impacts due to variation of Indus River discharge X

Downstream channel erosion and sedimentation due to sediment flushing

X

Extended lifetime of Tarbela Reservoir due to reduced sedimentation

X

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ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

Rise of water levels due to sedimentation in reservoir X

Change of water quality during operation X

Climate

Change of local climate due to reservoir impounding X

Contribution to global warming by reservoir induced methane development

X

Carbon dioxide credits due to avoidance of emissions X

Biological Environment

Natural Vegetation and Plants

Loss and degradation of natural plants due to submergence in reservoir

X

Wildlife

Blocking cross-river migration of terrestrial wildlife X

Loss of insects due to submergence X

Damage to amphibians & reptiles (including some endemic reptile species)

X

Improvement of habitats for amphibians and reptiles at Littoral zone X

Loss of birds due to submergence of their habitats X

Improvement of bird habitats in large reservoir X

Disturbance and hunting of wildlife in area along right bank access road

X

Improvement of natural conditions for migrating birds X

Natural Fish Stocks and Aquatic Conditions

Eutrophication of reservoir water body X

Degradation of fish stocks due to blockage of migration X

Change of coldwater fish spectrum X

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ANTICIPATED IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS/RECEPTORS IMPACT TYPE

A B C D E

Degradation of fish spawning areas in lower nullahs due to impoundment

X

Development of new fish spawning areas in reservoir X

Damage of fish at dam facilities X X

Increased exposure to predation and fishing X

Enhancing fish habitat conditions X

Downstream Ecosystems

Degradation of ecosystem and wildlife downstream of Tarbela Dam X

A: Significant adverse impact

B: Potentially significant adverse impact, where design or/and operation solutions can be developed

C: Potentially adverse impact, requiring further studies

D: Minor or insignificant adverse impact

E: Significant environmental enhancement

6.4 Environmental Management Plan

Environmental Management Plan (EMP) proposes measures to be taken for mitigation of the potential environmental damage, through the following means:

a) Appropriate provisions in the Bidding Documents of contractor(s)

b) Adequately monitoring and supervision of construction activities

c) Adoption of appropriate operation measures during post-construction period of the project

EMP shall be implemented basically, through certain specific plans for the key areas, which are described in the EIA Report. The plans, related with the natural environment, are as follows:

a) Integrated Land Management and Monitoring Plan

b) Climate and Air Management and Monitoring Plan

c) Integrated Water Resources Management Plan

d) Wildlife Management and Monitoring Plan

e) Fish Stocks Management Plan

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6.5 Environmental Monitoring

Environmental monitoring, whose requirements are laid down in the EIA Report, is proposed both at the construction and operation stages of the Project.

6.6 Research

Research in the following areas, related to the natural environment, which require some further investigations and studies, is recommended in the EIA Report:

a) River Channel Erosion Immediately Downstream of Reservoir

b) Eutrophication and Aquatic Life of Reservoir

6.7 Administrative Structure

It is proposed that an Environmental Management and Monitoring Cell (EMMC), under the General Manager (Field) of the Diamer Basha Dam Organization, shall be responsible to monitor implementation and mitigation tasks outlined in this EIA

Report, including EMP and RP. The EMMC shall also be part of regular set-up of

WAPDA, during operation stage of the Project.

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7.0 CERTAIN BASIC INFORMATION RELEVANT TO THIS REVIEW

7.1 Climate

a) Air Temperature: Based upon air temperature data of Chilas, with mean minimum of about 1 OC, in January, mean maximum of about 43 OC, in July and mean of > 30 OC during July-August, the Project area characterizes winter coldness combined with absence of monsoonal weather conditions and long and hot summer season.

b) Precipitation: The precipitation in this area is of two types. Much of it falls as snow on higher mountains (above 2,500 MASL), supplying large snow pack areas and glaciers. Basic runoff of the entire basin at the dam site comes from snowmelt, during the summer season. Only a small portion of precipitation falls as rain at lower levels; because this area is mostly protected from penetrations of monsoons, during summer, due to the mountain belt, lying south of the Project area.

In Chilas (1251 MASL), for which long-term precipitation data is available, the mean annual precipitation is of the order of 200 mm, in form of rainfall. Very rarely, in this lower valley bottom, the precipitation occurs as snow. The maximum amount of rainfall, that is about 70%, is received during winter and spring season (from October to April).

c) Potential Evaporation: Based upon potential evaporation data for Chilas

(1251 MASL), the evaporation exceeds by far the available precipitation, during all the months, causing aridity.

d) Humidity: In Chilas (1251 MASL), average air humidity during the summer months (June to September), is generally below 40%, with as low as 32.5% in

July. During winter months, the humidity rises, but the average does not exceed 60%.

7.2 Existing Land Use

As given in Section 2.1, a total of 37,419 acres of land is estimated to be required, for the Project.

Existing land use of the area, required for the Project, is that only about 8% is under housing, commercial objects and cultivation. Rangelands and postures, with vegetation cover of more than 10%, are of the order of only 0.5%. All the remaining area, which is more than 90%, is barren, owing to the soil structure and arid climatic conditions (annual precipitation < 200 mm), and comprises river and stream beds, sandy lands, and rocky areas, almost without or with very sparse vegetation. There

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2,000 MASL), with mostly coniferous type trees such as juniper, pine, fir and spruce.

7.3 Indus River at Dam Site

a) River Hydrology: Section of Indus River, where the Diamer Basha Dam site is located, has bed elevation of about 945-950 MASL. Mean annual flow, at the

Dam site, is estimated to be 1,966 m³/s (62 BCM). The maximum flow season is summer (June-September), in which the mean monthly discharges exceed

5,000 m³/s, with instantaneous flow values of over 6,000 m³/s. The total flow, during these four months, reaches almost 80% of the total annual flow.

During winter period (December-April), the mean flow remains below 500 m³/s.

The approximate width of river, at the Dam site, at the mean water level, varies from 150 to 180 m.

Corresponding to the seasonal fluctuations in the river water flows, annual variation in the surface water level, at the Dam site, is in the range of 12 m.

b) River Water Temperatures: The Indus River water temperatures, observed (at

1 m depth, close to the bank) at Shatial Bridge (19 km downstream of Dam), from 1983 to 2002, show, that there are about six months in winter, when the mean water temperature in the Indus River does not exceed 10 OC, which is a limit for biological activity. In addition, the water during December-

February cools down to 5 OC. During summer season, starting in April, the water temperature quickly rises to 12 OC. Almost, for seven months, the temperature is above, or close to 12 OC.

c) Dissolved Oxygen (DO) Levels: The dissolved oxygen (DO) levels of River Indus water, recorded at Raikot Bridge and the Dam site, are of the order of 6 mg/l.

Apparently, the encountered DO levels are far below than to be expected for the natural, unpolluted water, at the reported river water temperatures and altitude. This aspect needs some further investigation and examination. In this respect, corresponding data on biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) of the river water, reflecting the presence of the biodegradable organic matter, would be of relevance.

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7.4 Reservoir Operation and Downstream Changes in Morphology and Hydrology

7.4.1 Initial Impoundment

Table 3 presents planned schedule of the initial staged filling of the Project reservoir, as laid down in EIA Report.

Table 3

Initial Staged Filling of Diamer Basha Reservoir

Stage Filling Level Water Impoundment

(BCM)

Proportion of Annual

Runoff

Year

(MASL) Total Incremental (%)

1 975 0.04 0.04 0.1 Y

2 1060 (MOL) 2.1 2.06 4.8 Y + 3

3 1075 2.9 0.80 1.8 Y + 4

4 1150 8.9 6.00 13.9 Y + 5

5 1160 (FRL) 10.0 1.10 2.6 Y + 6

The initial impounding to 975 MASL is planned, as part of the river diversion, for construction purposes. The proportions of the annual runoff, used for the incremental water impoundment, reflect that the reductions in the downstream flows, and consequent changes in the hydrological conditions, would not be significant, during these 6 years of the filling process.

7.4.2 Normal Annual Reservoir Operation

It is established that, under routine annual operation, the normal filling of the reservoir would be during the high runoff period, from June to August, with an average filling period of 100 days, during which time it will impound about 13% of the mean annual river flow. The drawdown may be from September to May, to supplement low flow period water supply. Consequently reservoir water levels would be going through an annual fluctuation of 100 meters, between Minimum

Operation Level (MOL) of 1,060 MASL and Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 1,160 MASL.

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Consequent to the routine annual reservoir operation, following changes in the morphology and hydrology of the Indus River, downstream of the Dam, are anticipated and estimated:

a) Downstream Channel Degradation: River, for some hundred meters downstream of the dam site, forms a narrow gorge, with very steep slopes, with exposed bedrock and large boulders at some locations, and fine sand and silt material at others. It is estimated that, due to the trapping of the sediments in the reservoir, in the initial 10 years or so of reservoir operation, the out flowing water will cause a maximum degradation of about 4.5 m, particularly in the reach immediately downstream of the dam site, but excluding the areas covered with rocks. This degradation may gradually fizzle out over a distance of about 19 km upto Shatial.

b) Downstream Hydrology: Outflows, from the reservoir, through various facilities (powerhouses, low level outlets and spillway), during a typical year, will vary between 750 and 5,800 m³/s, as against the existing (Pre-Project) seasonal flow variation from <500 m³/s to >6,000 m³/s. This indicates a somewhat reduction in the extent of seasonal fluctuations in river water flows, downstream of the Dam site, consequent to the operation of the

Project reservoir.

Correspondingly, the seasonal fluctuations in the river water levels would also be reduced from the existing (Pre-Project) value of 12 meters.

Downstream of Dam, there will be an increase of Indus River water level during winter in the range of 1.2 to 4.8 m and in some months around 4 m.

However, in summer (June), there will be an average water level reduction between 0.2 and 2.2 m.

One significant and crucial change, however, in the downstream hydrology of the River Indus, resulting from the operation of the reservoir, would be very large daily water level fluctuations, of the order of 6 meters, in the downstream narrow Indus River channel, owing to the predominant diurnal peaking mode of Project operation. Due to long and very narrow river channel up to Tarbela, these fluctuations would, however, be attenuated, with distance from the dam.

It is anticipated that conjunctive operation of Tarbela and Diamer Basha reservoirs would have the impact of somewhat lowering the Indus river water levels, below Tarbela, during the 100 days of Project reservoir filling period. Starting in June with 0.01 m, this lowering of water level could increase to 0.39 m in August.

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8.0 REVIEW, ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

8.1 Overview

From the detailed review of the Project EIA Report and other related documents, we are of the view that the EIA is substantially comprehensive and extensive, with regard to the Project impacts on the natural environment.

Following are the summaries of the key assessments, made in the EIA Report, in respect of the Project impact on the natural environment, to which this Review concurs:

a) Impacts on Terrestrial Plants: As already described in Section 7.2, most of the area used for the Project is very sparsely covered by vegetation, due to poor soil structure, arid climate, degradation by overgrazing and firewood cutting.

Except in the villages, there are no trees or bushes.

Due to the low natural diversity, there are no plants or plant communities having significance, from the nature conservation point of view. The impact of the Project, therefore, on natural terrestrial plants, during construction as well as operation phase, is assessed as “Minor or insignificant adverse impact”.

b) Impacts on Terrestrial Animals: In the Project effected area, certain species of amphibians and reptiles are relevant from ecological and conservation point of view, as described in detail in Section 8.4.

Mammals are totally missing and non-existent. Presumably, most of mammals have either disappeared, due to hunting during the past decades, or have been driven back to higher areas, away from the Indus River and the

Project area. In this respect, therefore, adverse impact of the Project, during construction as well as operation phase, is deemed to be insignificant.

c) Impacts on Birds: Water fowl, some of them migrating from Siberia towards

South Asia, are resting, nesting and feeding in the area presently; but their population is not dominating. It is anticipated that the number of water fowl species and individuals will be reasonably increased, due to creation of the large body of reservoir, with more favourable natural conditions. In this respect, therefore, the post-impoundment impact of the Project is rated as

“Significant environmental enhancement”.

d) Impacts on Natural Fish Stock: Due to the low biological mass, high turbulence and very limited spawning areas, the fish stocks are limited only to the small tributaries. None of them is rare and endangered. Some of the

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14 species, observed and recorded during field investigations, were introduced from outside.

In this regime, cold water fish species are confined to elevations between

1200 up to 2000 MASL. Migrating fish species, much likely, are those adapted to various water temperature regimes such as the introduced trout. Thus, the cold water fish species, with proposed FRL of 1160 MASL of reservoir, would not be impacted, regarding migration.

Our concerns and proposals, in respect of certain issues and aspects, related with the impact of the Project on natural environment, which in our view are not adequately and effectively covered by the EIA Report, are presented in

Sections 8.2 to 8.9, of this Review Report.

8.2 Impacts on Ecological Conditions Downstream of the Proposed Dam

The EIA Report assigns category of “Minor or insignificant adverse impact” to the impacts of the Project, on the ecological conditions and natural habitats, downstream of the Dam, consequent to following downstream post-operation morphological and hydrological changes:

a) Reductions in the downstream flows, consequent to the initial impoundment of the reservoir, as laid down in Section 7.4.1

b) Downstream channel degradation, during the initial periods of reservoir operation, as described down in Section 7.4.2 (a)

c) Reduction in the extent of seasonal fluctuations in river water flows and levels, downstream of the Dam site, consequent to the routine annual operation of the Project reservoir, as elucidated in Section 7.4.2 (b)

d) Lowering of the Indus river water levels, below Tarbela, during the 100 days of Project reservoir filling period, as expounded in Section 7.4.2 (b)

This Review concurs with the above assessments. We, however, in this respect, are of the view that the following two aspects shall also be duly covered and addressed:

a) As laid down in Section 7.4.2 (b), during normal annual reservoir operation, there would be daily water level fluctuations, of the order of 6 meters, in the downstream Indus River channel, owing to the predominant diurnal peaking mode of Project operation. These short-term rapid fluctuations, in flows and water levels, in contrast with the seasonal variations, would be a totally new phenomenon, in the river regime, under consideration. Its impacts on the ecology of the river reach, from the Dam to the Tarbela Reservoir, needs to be investigated, assessed and documented.

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b) It is proposed, that after due analysis and assessments, minimum ecological flows, which shall be required to be maintained, in the River Indus reach, from Dam to Tarbela Reservoir, shall be established and reported in the EIA

Report, in form of a proposed mitigation measure. It shall be recommended in the EIA Report, that these prescribed minimum flows shall be adopted by

WAPDA, as one of the multiple governing criteria for the operation of reservoir and regulation of flow releases.

8.3 Impacts on Flows and Ecological Conditions Downstream of Kotri Barrage

8.3.1 Background

Historically, hydrology of the Indus River was characterized by very large variations between summer and winter flows. Harnessing, by diversion, of these flows, primarily for irrigation purposes, which started with the construction of Sukkur

Barrage in 1932, and thereupon continued with progressive construction of further barrages and dams, on River Indus and its tributaries, till full commissioning of

Tarbela in 1977, have substantially reduced flows in the lower reaches of Indus River, including its delta. Currently, flows below Kotri Barrage, which is the last barrage on

Indus River, are only available for 80 – 100 days, from July to September, with virtually no freshwater release, for a period of about nine months. Following are the two most adverse impacts of this process:

a) Extension of salt water intrusion depth, from the Arabian Sea into the Indus

River, to 90 km, against the historical figure of 30 km

b) Destruction or degradation of the aquatic and semi-aquatic ecosystems, including mangroves, riverine forests and wetlands, in the lower Indus River reaches including its delta, owing to reduced freshwater inflows and annual inundation

In 1991, the Water Apportionment Accord was signed between the representatives of all the four provinces of Pakistan to allocate supplies to the existing projects and future developments of the Indus River System. The Water Apportionment Accord also included the following provision for Indus Delta:

“The need for certain minimum water escape to the sea below Kotri Barrage to check sea intrusion was recognized. An optimum level of 10 MAF was discussed. It was decided that further studies would be undertaken to establish the minimal escapage needs downstream of Kotri Barrage.”

A “Final Report of IPOE (International Panel of Experts) for Review of Studies on

Water Escapages below Kotri Barrage” has been issued in November 2005, in which it has been recommended and concurred to by the provinces, that a minimum flow

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Page 31 of 45 AAA-TCI of 142 m3/s (5,000 cusecs) should be released, throughout the year, below Kotri

Barrage, to cater for the ecological needs.

8.3.2 Assessment by EIA Report and Our View

The EIA Report states that it is expected that the storage water, made available through the Project, could significantly contribute towards the fulfillment of the requirement of sustenance of the ecology and amelioration of environmental degradation, in the lower reaches Indus River, including its delta, in the form of contribution, towards the recommended minimum release of 142 m3/s, below the

Kotri Barrage.

The EIA Report, however, neither provides any detailed qualitative argument with sound logical linkages, nor any quantitative analysis, in the support of the aforementioned assessment.

It shall be appreciated that, in the past and at present, the prime reason for the inability of the Pakistan to maintain the minimum ecological flows, downstream the

Kotri Barrage, has been the competing demand of irrigation water requirements, of the upstream agricultural lands, which always takes precedence and priority, in respect of the distribution of the total available surface waters of the Indus River

System. How this scenario is going to change, in future, with the operation of the

Project, along-with the simultaneous increase in the irrigation water requirements, needs a far more detailed, comprehensive and prospective analysis, than is provided, if any, in the EIA Report.

Further, we are of the view that the issue of maintaining minimum ecological flows, in the lower Indus regime, is only obliquely and indirectly related to the Project. In fact, this issue is linked with the overall Indus River System, of which the proposed

Project would only be a component in future, and thus entails a much broader policy framework, involving crucial political implications, to be decided by the federal and provincial governments, present as well as future.

In view of the above deliberations, we propose that this issue shall be reevaluated and reassessed, in the EIA Report, on the basis of a more detailed realistic analysis.

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8.4 Impacts on Amphibians and Reptiles

8.4.1 Certain Background Information

Table 4 presents categories, in summarized form, of the nature conservation status of species of fauna and flora, based upon the available ecological data and evidence, as established by the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature).

Table 4

IUCN Categories of the Nature Conservation Status of Species

EX Extinct: Last individual has died, with no reasonable doubt

EW Extinct in the Wild: Survived, but not in wild

CR Critically Endangered: Facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild

EN Endangered: Facing a very high risk of extinction in the wild

VU Vulnerable: Facing a high risk of extinction in the wild

NT Near Threatened: Close to qualifying for a threatened category

LC Least Concern: Widespread and abundant

DD Data Deficient: Inadequate information to categorize

NE Not Evaluated: Not yet evaluated

Note: Those shaded are Threatened Categories.

CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and

Flora) is an international agreement between governments, to ensure that international trade in specimens of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival. For this purpose, the species are classified in Appendix I, II and III, with different levels of threat.

8.4.2 Assessment by EIA Report and Our View

The EIA Repot, in respect of the amphibians and reptiles in the Project area, also contains an extensive specific study (annexed as Appendix E to the Report). The

Report comprises the following main contents:

a) Baseline information, mainly comprising list of species of amphibians and reptiles, observed, reported or likely to exist, in the Project Area; their nature

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Page 33 of 45 AAA-TCI conservation status, in accordance with IUCN (International Union for

Conservation of Nature), CITES (Convention on International Trade in

Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) and certain “Red Data Book of

Pakistan”; and their likely habitats, in the Project area, under following categories:

- Rocky flat area covered by stones

- Rocky habitat with steppe slope

- Sandy flat area covered…