RFI_Leds_Contract_Attachment_Scoping_Mission_Report_Guatemala_4-22-13_final_draft.pdf

April, 2013

Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies in Guatemala

(EC‐LEDS)

Scoping Mission Report (DRAFT) EC‐LEDS Guatemala Scoping Team

Final Draft April 23, 2013

EC‐LEDS Guatemala scoping team members

US Agency for International Development Elizabeth Cushion

US Department of State Timothy Lattimer

US Department of Agriculture Toby Bloom (US Forest Service) Daniel Lapidus (Foreign Agricultural Service)

US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory Sarah Busche

Embarq México Cynthia Menéndez

ICF International Mark Flugge

USAID’s Forest, Carbon, Markets and Communities (FCMC) project Miguel Franco Jairo Gutierrez Mark Oven Walter Oyhantcabal Christian Pichard Sebastian Tolvett

USAID’s Regional Clean Energy Initiative Debora Ley

Acknowledgements

This work could not have been completed without the assistance of many people and the EC‐LEDS Guatemala Scoping Team would like to thank the following individuals and organizations for their extensive support and cooperation:

Government of Guatemala

Sergio Ruano (Vice Minister), Erick Menzel, Jose Luis Rivera, Carlos Mansilla and Marcel Oseida at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, and all the national authorities and officials who help us and during this process.

USAID Guatemala Mission

Kevin Kelly (Mission Director), Nancy Hoffman, Mark Visocky, Jennifer Tikka, Ricardo Roca, Teresa Robles, Dani Newcomb, Patricia Garcia, Kareen Argueta, Matthew Udziela, Janet Lawson, Ana Vilma Pocasangre, and everyone at the USAID Guatemala Mission that provided valuable insight for this report and flawlessly coordinated the logistics for the scoping mission.

US Embassy in Guatemala

Ambassador Arnold A. Chacon, Bruce Williamson (Deputy Chief of Mission), and Shane Hough

Additionally, the EC‐LEDS Guatemala scoping team would like to thank the following organizations for providing insight on development and implementation of climate change activities in Guatemala:

Asociación de Azucareros de Guatemala (ASAZGUA)/Instituto Privado de Investigación Sobre Cambio Climático (ICC), Alternativas Energéticas Renovables (AER), Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo (AECID), Asociación Gremial del Empresariado Rural (AGER), Asociación Nacional de Municipalidades de la República de Guatemala (ANAM), Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), BFL Hydro, Cámara de Comercio de Guatemala, Cámara de Industria Guatemala (CIG), CBC (formerly the Central America Bottling Corporation; Cabcorp), Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE), Centro Guatemalteco de Producción más Limpia (CGP+L), Cementos Progreso, Consejo Nacional de Áreas Protegidas (CONAP), Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (CNEE), Comité Coordinador de Asociaciones Agrícolas, Comerciales, Industriales y Financieras (CACIF), Defensores de la Naturaleza, Defensoría Indígena Wajxaqib’Noj (DIWN), Dirección General de Transporte (DGT), Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala (FIUSAC), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Fundación Para el Ecodesarrollo y la Conservación (Fundaeco), Fundación Patrimonio Cultural y Natural Maya (PACUNAM), Fundación Solar, HidroEnergía, S.A., Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (IICA), Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (INBIO), Instituto Nacional de Bosques (INAB), Instituto Nacional de Electrificación (INDE), Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología (INSIVUMEH), Inversiones y Desarrollo de Centroamérica (IDC), Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación (MAGA), Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN), Ministerio de Comunicaciones Infraestructura y Vivienda (MICIVI), Ministerio de Energía y Minas (MEM), Municipalidad de la Ciudad de Guatemala, Programa Nacional de Competitividad (PRONACOM), Rainforest Alliance (RA), Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la Presidencia (SEGEPLAN), The Guatemalan American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), The Guatemalan Exporters’ Association

(AGEXPORT), The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Universidad del Valle (UVG), Universidad Galileo (UG), Universidad Mariano Gálvez (UMG), Universidad Rafael Landívar ‐ Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente (IARNA), World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF).

Acronyms

AECID Agencia Española de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo AER Alternativas Energéticas Renovables

AGEXPORT The Guatemalan Exporters’ Association

AmCham The Guatemalan American Chamber of Commerce

ANAM Asociación Nacional de Municipalidades de la República de Guatemala

ASAZGUA/ICC Asociación de Azucareros de Guatemala ‐ Instituto Privado de Investigación sobre Cambio Climático

ASOREMA Asociación Nacional de Organizaciones No Gubernamentales de los Recursos Naturales y el Medio Ambiente

BRT Bus Rapid Transit CALAS Centro de Acción Legal Ambiental y Social de Guatemala

CATIE Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza

CCIC Inter‐Institutional Commission on Climate Change

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CEA Centro de Estudios Ambientales

CGP+L Centro Guatemalteco de Producción más Limpia

CH4 Methane CIDA Canadian International Development Agency

CIG Cámara de Industria Guatemala

CNCC Consejo Nacional de Cambio Climático

CNEE Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

CONAP Consejo Nacional de Áreas Protegidas

CONEE Commission on Energy Efficiency

CONRED Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres

CSR Corporate Social Responsibility

DGT Dirección General de Transporte under the Vice Ministry of Transport DIWN Defensoría Indígena Wajxaqib’Noj

ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

EC‐LEDS Enhancing Capacity for Low Emissions Development Strategies EFDB Emission Factor Data Base

ENRD Estrategia Nacional para. Reducir la Deforestación

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FAS Foreign Agricultural Service

FCMC USAID’s Forest, Carbon, Markets and Communities

FOGUAMA Fondo Guatemalteco del Medio Ambiente

Fundaeco Fundación Para el Ecodesarrollo y la Conservación

FONACON Fondo Nacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza

GCI Grupo de Coordinación Inter‐Institucional de Biodiversidad, Bosques y Cambio Climático

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEF Global Environmental Fund

Gg Gigagrams GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information Systems

GIZ German Development Agency

GOG Government of Guatemala

GWP Global Warming Potential

IDB Inter‐American Development Bank

IICA Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura

INAB Instituto Nacional de Bosques

INBIO Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad

INDE Instituto Nacional de Electrificación

INSIVUMEH Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología

IPCC International Panel on Climate Change

KCA Key Category Analysis kWh Kilowatt Hour LEDS Low Emissions Development Strategy

LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

MACC Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

MAGA Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación

MARN Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales

MBR Maya Biosphere Reserve

MEM Ministerio de Energía y Minas

MEM/DGE Ministerio de Energía y Minas/Dirección General de Energía

MICIVI Ministerio de Comunicaciones, Infraestructura, y Vivienda

MINECO Ministerio de Economía

MINEX Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores

MINFIN Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas

MNCC Mesa Nacional de Cambio Climático

MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification

MT Metric Tonnes MW Mega watts N2O Nitrous Oxide NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

NGO Non‐governmental Organization

NMVOC Non‐methane Volatile Organic Compounds

NO Nitric Oxide

NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide

NREL US Department of Energy ‐ National Renewable Energy Laboratory NRECA The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

OLADE Organización Latinoamericana de Energía

PACUNAM Fundación Patrimonio Cultural y Natural Maya

PINFOR Programa de Incentivos Forestales

PINPEP Programa de Incentivos para Pequeños Poseedores de Tierras de Vocación Forestal o Agroforestal

PRONACOM Programa Nacional de Competitividad

PPA Power Purchase Agreement ppm Parts per Million QA/QC Quality Assurance and Quality Control

RA Rainforest Alliance

REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation REDFIA Red de Formación e Investigación Ambiental

SAR Second Assessment Report

SAT Superintendencia de Administración Tributaria

SEGEPLAN Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la Presidencia

SICA Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana

SIGA Sistema Integrado Guatemalteco de Autobuses

SO2 Sulfur Dioxide

SIGAP Sistema Guatemalteco de Áreas Protegidas tCO2/y Tons of Carbon Dioxide per year

UGL Universidad Galileo

UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

URL‐IARNA Universidad Rafael Landívar ‐ Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente

USAID US Agency for International Development

USEPA US Environmental Protection Agency

USFS US Forest Service USG United State Government

UVG Universidad del Valle

Table of Contents

Introduction

1. Enhancing capacity for low emissions development strategies

2. EC‐LEDS scoping mission

3. Country development background

4. Climate change in Guatemala

Institutional Structure for LEDS

1. Legislative, policy and strategic framework for LEDS

2. Institutional structure for LEDS

3. Other LEDS actors

4. Institutional gaps and challenges

5. Opportunities for engagement

National greenhouse gas inventories

1. Sector overview

2. Identified challenges/needs

3. Opportunities for engagement

Forestry and land use change

1. Sector overview

2. Identified challenges/needs

3. Opportunities for engagement

Energy production and use

1. Sector overview

1.1. Policies

1.2. Programs

2. Identified challenges/needs

3. Opportunities for engagement

Transport and transport fuels

1. Sector overview

2. Identified challenges/needs

3. Opportunities for engagement

Industrial processes

1. Sector overview

2. Identified challenges/needs

3. Opportunities for engagement

Annex 1. People and organizations consulted

Annex 2. EC‐LEDS scoping mission agenda

Annex 3. Other LEDS actors

Introduction

1. Enhancing Capacity for Low Emissions Development Strategies

A LEDS, or Low Emissions Development Strategy, is a country‐built and country‐owned strategic framework that articulates concrete actions, policies, programs and implementation plans to advance economic growth, improve environmental management and meet development objectives. This framework provides a foundation for achieving long‐term, measurable greenhouse gas emission reductions as compared to a business‐as‐usual development pathway.

The goal of the United State Government’s (USG’s) Enhancing Capacity for Low Emissions Development Strategies (EC‐LEDS) program is to support the country‐led development of a LEDS and the implementation of selected activities outlined in the strategy. While a LEDS may look different depending on the country‐specific planning process, as well as existing climate change planning, the components generally contained within a LEDS are outlined in Table 1.

Table 1. LEDS components An outline of national development goals

A summary of economic data and an inventory of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Assessments for threats to economic development, including climate change, security, etc.

A long‐term projection of business‐as‐usual economic growth and GHG emissions, identified development

“pathways”, and whole‐of‐economy and sector‐specific goals A list of prioritized alternative actions that improve economic growth, respond to vulnerabilities, and lower the long‐term emissions trajectory Implementation and financing plans for high‐priority actions (linked to country budgets)

Activities that support the creation of a LEDS are those that provide technical assistance and capacity enhancement to the partner country to enhance their ability to gather, evaluate and manage data as well as assess and prioritize activities. Identified LEDS activities will support a low emission development trajectory. Prioritized activities, if implemented, will enable economic and other development goals while reducing emissions trajectories.

The Government of Guatemala (GOG), development partners (including the United States), private investment, and international financing mechanisms, such as multilateral funds are sources that may finance implementation of activities outlined in a LEDS. This report outlines the USG’s findings from the EC‐LEDS scoping trip in Guatemala and provides the EC‐LEDS scoping team’s assessment of priorities identified that can be met through GOG, USG, or other donor programs or resources. As a result of discussions with GOG representatives, the private sector, indigenous community representatives, and civil society and an analysis of current literature and documentation, the USG scoping team developed recommendations for steps to be undertaken to build capacity for, and improve the development and implementation of, a GOG low emission development strategy.

These recommendations do not indicate a commitment on the part of the USG to provide technical assistance or resources. Rather, these recommendations will be used to inform the dialogue between the USG and the GOG to determine an agreed set of joint activities under the EC‐LEDS program.

2. EC‐LEDS scoping mission

As of March 2013, the USG is working with more than 20 countries as part of the EC‐LEDS program. Guatemala is one of six counties in the Latin American and Caribbean region that has expressed formal interest in participating.

An interagency delegation comprised of experts from the US Department of Energy ‐ National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), ICF International (representing the US Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA]), the US Forest Service (USFS), the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the US Department of State, the US Agency for International Development/Washington (USAID), and representatives from USAID’s Forest, Carbon, Markets and Communities (FCMC) project and the USAID Regional Clean Energy Initiative visited Guatemala from February 25 – March 1, 2013. The scoping team worked closely with the USAID/Guatemala Mission while on the scoping visit and in developing this assessment.

The scoping team looked at the overall institutional framework in Guatemala for Low Emission Development Strategies and opportunities to support the development of Guatemala’s LEDS, as well as the national GHG inventory methods and climate change models. In addition, the team assessed opportunities for developing low emission development strategies in sectors with the highest contribution of GHG emissions in Guatemala including: land use and land use change, the energy sector, the transport sector, and industrial processes. The goals of the scoping trip were to:

Continue to strengthen GOG commitment toward and understanding of EC‐LEDS.

Engage with in‐country partners to better understand how EC‐LEDS can complement and leverage other activities.

Conduct a technical needs assessment which:

Gathers detailed technical information to identify opportunities and challenges for development and implementation of a LEDS.

Identifies areas where the USG can provide value through EC‐LEDS.

Start to identify a path forward based on the above.

During the scoping mission, the experts met with government counterparts, private industry, non‐ governmental and civil society organizations, academia and other stakeholders. In addition, the team attended workshops and roundtables on the topics of land‐use change and LEDS, the private sector, GHG inventories, and energy. Table 2 outlines the expert meetings that took place for each sector (See Appendix 1 for full list of names and organizations and Appendix 2 for the full scoping mission agenda).

Table 2. Expert meetings by sector EC‐LEDS scoping mission sector Government agencies and organizations met with

GHG inventory

Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología (INSIVUMEH), Ministerio de Agricultura Ganadería y Alimentación (MAGA), Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN), Universidad del Valle (UVG) ‐ Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Universidad Rafael Landívar (URL) ‐ Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente

(IARNA).

Land use, land use change Asociación Nacional de Municipalidades de la República de Guatemala (ANAM), Inter‐American Development Bank (IDB), Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE), Consejo Nacional de Áreas

Protegidas (CONAP), Defensores de la Naturaleza, Defensoría Indígena Wajxaqib’Noj (DIWN), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Fundación Para el Ecodesarrollo y la Conservación (Fundaeco), Fundación Patrimonio Cultural y Natural Maya (PACUNAM), Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (IICA), Instituto Nacional de Bosques (INAB), MAGA, MARN, Rainforest Alliance, URL – IARNA, UVG ‐ Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad

Energy

Alternativas Energéticas Renovables (AER), BFL Hydro, Cementos Progreso, Centro Guatemalteco de Producción más Limpia (CGP+L), Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (CNEE), Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala (FIUSAC), Fundación Solar, Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (INBIO), Instituto Nacional de Electrificación (INDE), MARN, Ministerio de Energía y Minas (MEM), The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Universidad Galileo (UGL)

Transport CNEE, Dirección General de Transporte (DGT), INSIVUMEH, MARN, MEM, Ministerio de Comunicaciones Infraestructura y Vivienda (MICIVI), the Municipality of Guatemala City, Industrial Processes

Asociación de Azucareros de Guatemala (ASAZGUA)/Instituto Privado de Investigación Sobre Cambio Climático (ICC), Cámara de Comercio de Guatemala, Cámara de Industria Guatemala (CIG), CBC (formerly the Central America Bottling Corporation; Cabcorp), MARN, NRECA, Programa Nacional de Competitividad (PRONACOM), Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la Presidencia (SEGEPLAN), The Guatemalan American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), The Guatemalan Exporters’ Association (AGEXPORT)

The scoping mission concluded with an expert group working session, and a closing meeting with the US Ambassador to Guatemala attended by the scoping mission team and two representatives from MARN.

3. Country development background

Guatemala, the most populous country in Central America, faces multiple development challenges.

More than half of the population, most of who live in rural parts of the country, currently live below the poverty line, with 15% living in extreme poverty1. Although the majority of the population has traditionally been rural, the urban population has been growing steadily (particularly in Guatemala City, Sacatepéquez and Quetzaltenango) since 2000 and currently represents 50% of the total. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for 2012 are $5,200, ranking the country in 154th place worldwide2 .

The country’s main industries include sugar, textiles and clothing, furniture, chemicals, petroleum, metals, rubber and tourism. Agriculture employs 38% of the population, while industry employs 14% and services 48%3 . Since the 1990’s, the contribution of agriculture and the manufacturing industry to Guatemala’s GDP has decreased, while commerce, transport, construction, mining and communications have increased4. Guatemala is also Central America’s most significant recipient of remittances, with inflows equivalent to one‐tenth of the GDP. Since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords, coupled with

1 IARNA, 2009. Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente. Perfil Ambiental de Guatemala 2008‐2009:

Las señales ambientales críticas y su relación con el desarrollo.

http://www.infoiarna.org.gt/media/file/PERFAM2008/PERFAM2008.pdf 2 CIA. 2013. The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the‐world‐factbook/geos/gt.html.

3 Ibid.

4 Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. 2009. Informe Ambiental del Estado de Guatemala – GEO 2009.

the 2006 Dominican Republic‐Central American Free Trade Agreement, Guatemala has seen an increase in foreign investment.

Guatemala’s population is increasing, with an annual growth rate of nearly two percent. More than 40% of Guatemala’s 14 million inhabitants are Maya, while the Garifuna and Xinca indigenous groups represent a very low fraction of the population. Historically, this population has been marginalized from central decision making processes and experiences higher rates of poverty and lack of access to basic services than other groups5.

In 1996, Guatemala signed the Peace Accords that ended the 36‐year internal armed conflict that claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people, mostly indigenous, and is responsible for the forced disappearance of another 50,000. The period from 1961 to 1996 was characterized by widespread repression and violence, impunity, political instability and economic stagnation and its effects can be observed to this day. Violence, crime, drug trafficking and gangs are widespread in the country and are focused particularly in urban areas and especially in the capital city of Guatemala, and have an ongoing negative impact on the country’s economic and social development.

The current government of Otto Perez Molina from the right wing Patriot Party won the elections of 2011 with a clear message of addressing the overwhelming crime levels in the country. It is the first time that a former member of the military has been elected to power since the signing of the Peace Accords.

Perez Molina assumed power in January of 2012 and his term will run until 2016.

From a geographic perspective, Guatemala is divided into eight regions, 22 departments and 335 municipalities, and covers an area of 108,889km2. It shares borders with Mexico, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador, and has both a Pacific and Atlantic coastline. Guatemala has one of the greatest levels of climate and topographic variability in the region and is located over three tectonic plates, resulting in a high incidence of both earthquake and volcanic activity. In addition, its location along the hurricane route of the Atlantic Ocean means that Guatemala is highly vulnerable to environmental disasters which have in the past caused losses of human life and resulted in significant financial costs for the country.

Land tenure in the country has been a source of tension for much of its history. The highest levels of land concentration are found in the most fertile areas, whereas subsistence farming is mostly found in areas with poor or eroded soil. These areas tend to be mostly utilized by indigenous communities.

Guatemala does not have a clear agrarian policy or land law. Its 1973 Civil Code provides general principles relating to the possession, use, transfer and ownership of land and its registration.

Furthermore, various rules for registering land rights are set forth in different legislation spanning from

1880 to the present.

Together, these issues present a wide variety of challenges for Guatemala as the country moves forward on a sustainable development pathway. An effective low emission development strategy will also take into account the challenges faced by the country outside of a climate change context.

4. Climate change in Guatemala

“As a result of widespread deforestation and land degradation, slash‐and‐burn subsistence agriculture, and overexploitation of water resources, Guatemalans rely on degraded natural resources and lands with low productivity, leading to increased food insecurity and vulnerability. Other factors that increase

5 Ibid, note 2.

vulnerability include urbanization and rapid population growth in high‐risk areas such as the highlands and Pacific coastal regions, highly unstable physical structures, limited access to clean water and health services, and low capacity to manage natural disaster risks6.”

Climate change is likely to make these conditions worse. Trends suggest that as a result of climate change, Guatemala is likely to experience more intense rains occurring across shorter periods of time, leading to flooding and droughts. This will have impacts on agricultural production, soils, and land and forest conservation as well as water availability and quality, all of which are already showing signs of stress and vulnerability. In 2009, the worst drought in Latin America in 30 years hit Guatemala, reducing the harvest of staples like maize and beans by up to 50 percent and affecting approximately 2.5 million Guatemalans.7

The country’s geographic location, as well as its limited infrastructure, also exposes it to considerable risk and damage from hurricanes and tropical storms. In past years, Guatemala has been impacted by a number of well‐known environmental disasters ‐ which have resulted in massive environmental and economic damages ‐ including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, Tropical Storm Stan in 2005, and Tropical Storm Agatha in 2010. Agatha’s estimated economic damage was upward of $1 billion USD8.

Given its recent history with natural disasters and the country’s rank as one of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change and the fifth most vulnerable to natural disasters ‐ with more than 40 percent of the population exposed to simultaneous threats such as floods, hurricanes and earthquakes9 ‐ Guatemalan authorities stress the importance of factoring climate change adaptation into their development planning.

In response to these challenges, the GOG has made a concerted effort to create programs that address climate change, and most particularly deforestation – a significant challenge faced by Guatemala. There has also been an increase in the number of government policies and agencies that have come into existence in relation to these themes, though their funding and scope of influence are often limited, or may contradict other extant policies.

A significant portion of the focus placed on climate change and the environment in the country is related to international factors, including the signing of particular agreements (and most significantly the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC]). The financial and technical support provided by the international community in the form of bilateral projects, multi‐lateral projects, and projects supported by specific international organizations have also been influential, in a context where domestic funding and technical capacity in this area are considerably limited. The concern however, is that these programs may be limited in scope and duration and do not provide the country with a long‐ term, comprehensive strategy to address the challenges presented by climate change.

Guatemala emits less than 0.4% of global GHG emissions; however per capita emissions are on an upward trend10. Currently, the country is under no international commitment to lower its emissions.

6 The World Bank. 2011.

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/wb_gfdrr_climate_change_country_profile_for_GTM.

pdf 7 Ibid, note 1.

8 https://www.un.org/depts/los/nippon/unnff_programme_home/fellows_pages/fellows_papers/yon_1112_guatemala.pdf 9 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. 2011. Disaster Risk Management Programs for Priority Countries. http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/publication/DRM_CountryPrograms_2011.pdf 10 The World Bank. 2013. CO2 Emissions. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

However, the GOG has expressed a commitment to green growth and an interest in developing a low carbon economy that meets its development goals. For the EC‐LEDS program, it will be important to identify areas for collaboration that both support the implementation of existing policies and plans, and work towards reaching Guatemala’s articulated climate change related goals.

Institutional structure for LEDS

1. Legislative, policy and strategic framework for LEDS

Beginning in the 1970’s, and particularly since the 1990’s, Guatemala has passed a range of legislative documents that relate in some way to the environment, environmental degradation and climate change (Table 3). Additionally, Guatemala is signatory to more than 75 regional and international agreements and treaties that relate to the environment, though few relate specifically to climate change. A World Bank report estimates that Guatemala has issued more than 2,500 legal instruments, but that by 2006 only 65% of the regulations required by the Ley de Protección y Mejoramiento del Medio Ambiente of 1986 had been approved11.

In some cases, these documents directly regulate specific aspects relating to forestry, natural resources, etc. In other cases, different policies, strategies and laws exercise jurisdiction over specific topics or areas, which can lead to conflicts on a particular issue, overlapping responsibilities, or gaps in the management and attention provided to the environment and climate change. It appears that, despite the number of policies and strategies that relate to the environment, these are not organized to effectively and constructively cover all aspects relating to a particular issue. For example, in the case of water, the administration of the water system is assigned to 17 different institutions which all have direct and/or indirect regulations that affect it. There have been more than 20 attempts to draw a clear and all‐encompassing legislation on water, but none of them have come to fruition.

11 World Bank. 2006. República de Guatemala Análisis Ambiental del País Abordando los Aspectos Ambientales de la Expansión Comercial y de Infraestructura. http://www‐ wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2008/03/28/000333038_20080328020027/Rendered/PDF/ 364590SR0SPANI11Ambiental1Guatemala.pdf

Table 3. Laws, policies and strategies Institution Description

National Constitution, Article 97 indicates that the State, municipalities and residents of Guatemala are to foster social, economic and technological development that may prevent the pollution of the environment and which may maintain ecological balance.

Furthermore, it states that the necessary norms will be created to ensure that fauna, flora, land and water resources are used in a rational manner avoiding their plundering. Article 126 declares the reforestation of the country and forest conservation to be a national emergency and of significance for the country.

Peace Accords, 1996 Acknowledge the significant cultural and spiritual relevance of natural resources to Guatemala’s Indigenous population and the risk to sustainable development posed by the irrational exploitation of forest resources.

Ley de Protección y Mejoramiento del Medio Ambiente, 1986

This legislation allows for significant development in areas relating to climate change. Its objectives are the protection, conservation and improvement of the country’s natural assets; the prevention and control of damaging forces, pollution and the misuse of ecological systems; and the restoration of the environment.

Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático, 2008

This strategy seeks to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate change, to strengthen national capacity to adapt to climate change and to develop strategies to reduce GHG emissions. Its work areas include institutional capacity building in relation to climate change, a national program on adaptation to climate change, a national program for the reduction of GHG emissions, and strengthening of international negotiation abilities in relation to climate change.

2. Institutional structure for LEDS

In addition to the range of policies and strategies that directly and indirectly address climate change, there exist a number of government entities who play a role in climate change issues in Guatemala and will be stakeholders during the process of developing a low emission development strategy for the country (Table 4). These government bodies with a focus on the environment and climate change are comparatively new, having been created mostly since the late 1990’s.

Política Nacional de Cambio Climático, 2009

This policy seeks to contribute to the Millennium Objectives with an emphasis on poverty reduction. Its areas of work include reducing vulnerability to environmental disasters, capacity building in adaptation to climate change, and the development of strategies for the reduction of GHG emissions.

Plan Sectorial Multianual de Ambiente y Agua, 2010

A result of the “Declaración de Antigua II” of 2008 between the GOG and international aid organizations. This plan is designed for 2011 to 2013, and seeks to promote the development of areas related to the environment and water providing strategic guidelines and clear direction for institutional actions and the effective use of financial, human and physical resources. Its four main objectives are: to decrease vulnerability to extreme weather‐related events; to strengthen water management and use; to contribute to ecological balance and biodiversity through conservation, protection and sustainable management of natural resources; to strengthen socio‐ environmental awareness and accountability in all sectors to ensure widespread and long‐lasting access to natural resources.

Política Nacional de Energía, 2013

The 2012‐2027 Energy Policy aims to contribute to the country's sustainable energy development in a socially equitable and environmentally friendly manner. The policy consists of five integrated pillars that link energy needs with environmental and social considerations: 1) Securing electricity supply at competitive prices; 2) Securing fuel supply at competitive prices; 3) Exploration and exploitation of oil reserves with a view toward developing national self‐sufficiency; 4) Energy savings and energy efficiency; 5) Reduced use of firewood in the country.

Estrategia Nacional de Producción Sostenible y Uso Eficiente de Leña (proposed), 2012

This proposed strategy for the years 2013 – 2024, has two primary goals: to 1) establish and manage a minimum of 48,000 hectares of forest plantations and agroforestry systems through forestry incentive programs for the production of approximately 1.2 million cubic meters of wood per year for local use and (2) promote the use of appropriate technologies for the efficient use of firewood, by providing technical and financial assistance to establish and supervise the operation of 100,000 efficient wood stoves.

Table 4. Government of Guatemala institutional participation Institution Description

Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la Presidencia

(SEGEPLAN)

SEGEPLAN is in charge of promoting the coordination among public administration entities, defines the general public policy for the administration, defines the national investment policies, and is in charge of the national planning system.

Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN)

MARN was established in 2000, replacing the Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente. Its main objective is the appropriate management of Guatemala’s environment and natural resources. Areas of work include the protection and strengthening of the environment and environmental services; adaptation and mitigation of climate change; water and the management of bodies of water;

awareness raising within the population at large in relation to the environment

12 (MARN 2011)

and health; and capacity building on socio‐environmental issues. From 2009 to 2011 it tabled more than 27 bills in relation to natural resources12. MARN is the main government actor on climate change and is the National Contact Point for UNFCC. Within MARN, there is the Unidad de Cambio Climático, which was established at the end of Phase I of the First National Communication Project.

It is directly involved with follow‐up activities relating to UNFCCC, and has created the Programa Nacional de Cambio Climático to focus exclusively on responsibilities in relation to UNFCCC. Additionally, the Oficina Nacional de Desarrollo Limpio reviews, promotes and monitors clean development mechanism (CDM) projects in the country. MARN’s Strategic Vision 2010‐2014 identifies four key priority themes for the Ministry: 1) social and environmental risks; 2) contamination; 3) energy and 4) territorial governance.

Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación

(MAGA)

MAGA is responsible for implementing policies and strategies that promote the sustainable development of agriculture, livestock, forests, and hydro biological resources. In 2011, MAGA created a new Climate Change Unit with the objective of enhancing the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to climate change.

Ministerio de Energía y Minas

(MEM)

MEM formulates and coordinates policies, plans and programs related to energy and mining, including renewable energy sources.

Ministerio de Comunicaciones, Infraestructura, y Vivienda

(MICIVI)

MICIVI is responsible for infrastructure such as roads, ports, airports, rail, and telecommunications lines. It also sets regulations to coordinate the use of this infrastructure and conducts studies to see how best to expand it. Under MICIVI is the Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología (INSIVUMEH), a scientific organization which was founded in March 1976 in response to a large earthquake. Its purpose is to study and monitor atmospheric phenomenon and events, analyze geophysical and hydrological risks for society, and provide information and recommendations to the government and the private sector in the event of a natural disaster. The institute has four major disciplines which include seismology, volcanology, meteorology and hydrology.

Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas

(MINFIN)

MINFIN has the role of managing Guatemala’s financial resources in a manner that is efficient, equitable and transparent. In addition MINFIN has the responsibility to develop short, medium and long term fiscal policies, to develop the national budget, and to establish policies to make investments, including in social programs, using equity, loans or foreign aid.

Ministerio Público de Guatemala

Created in 1996 within the Ministerio Público, the Fiscalía de Delitos contra el Ambiente investigates and takes penal action as appropriate in relation to criminal acts that involve the environment. It has offices in Guatemala City, Izabal and Petén. In 2008, it received 1,124 filed reports (MARN, 2009).

Programa Nacional de Competitividad (PRONACOM)

Importantly for LEDS, PRONACOM counts environmental sustainability as one of its 6 axes under the National Competitiveness Agenda (2012‐2021), which aims to promote public‐private partnerships around the country’s competitiveness and international image.

Consejo Nacional de Áreas Protegidas (CONAP)

CONAP was created in 1989 to manage the protected areas of the country, which cover one third of Guatemala. CONAP manages the 1) Sistema Guatemalteco de Áreas Protegidas (SIGAP) which consists of the 219 protected areas in the country and the entities that manage them. SIGAP’s purpose is to conserve, recover and protect biological diversity and the natural resources of the country, and 2) the Fondo Nacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (FONACON) with the role of securing and distributing funds to institutions that

Given the number of GOG entities working on the topic of the environment and more specifically, on the issue of climate change, several mechanisms (outlined in Table 5 below) have been instituted to provide better inter‐institutional coordination and to minimize overlapping roles and responsibilities.

Table 5. Inter‐institutional coordination Group Description

Grupo de Coordinación Inter‐Institucional de biodiversidad, bosques y cambio climático (GCI)

This group was created in 2012 under the leadership of MARN, with the participation of MAGA, CONAP and INAB. It seeks to foster research and policy creation related to the environment (Barreto, 2012).

Inter‐Institutional Commission on Climate Change (CCIC)

CCIC was created in 2009, with the participation of over a dozen government actors including MAGA, MEM, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Public Health.

CCIC seeks to work with different sectors of the executive government to develop policies, strategies and concrete actions with the overall purpose of adaptation and mitigation of climate change. It is headed by the Vice‐President through coordination with MARN. The consolidation of the CCIC is also part of the objectives set forth by the $250 million loan from the Inter‐American Development Bank to strengthen Guatemala’s work in relation to climate change. This group has not been convened during the current administration.

Consejo Nacional de Cambio Climático (CNCC)

The CNCC examines and provides alternatives to a range of topics relating to climate change. It is coordinated by MARN and is composed of government organizations, private organizations (such as the Comité Coordinador de Asociaciones Agrícolas) and non‐governmental organizations. This group has not been convened during the current administration.

Comisión Interministerial de Biocombustibles

The commission is composed of MARN, MAGA and MEM and has mostly focused its efforts in defining national policy objectives on biofuels.

Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (CNEE)

The CNEE is the power sector regulator and is currently involved in generation and transmission planning. CNEE also releases public auctions.

Instituto Nacional de Electrificación (INDE)

INDE is responsible for increasing access to electricity throughout the country.

3. Other LEDS actors

In addition to the work by the GOG, there are many other national and international actors working in Guatemala on the issue of climate change as it relates to LEDS (see Annex 3 for a full summary).

In order to coordinate these various efforts, particularly between development partners, the Mesa Sectorial Ambiente y Agua was created in 2009. Its main purpose is to strengthen communication and actions between pertinent GOG bodies and the international donor community to allow for greater are working in the protection, conservation and restoration of natural areas.

Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres

(CONRED)

CONRED was created in 1996 and works in a collaborative fashion with social sectors to foster the coordination of teams to address adaptation to climate change, with the support of trained technicians.

División de Protección de la Naturaleza

A division of the National Civil Police that monitors natural assets in 11 departments in the country, focusing its work in Petén (with 10 control posts in the Maya Biosphere Reserve), Cobán, Quetzaltenango, Salamá and Chimaltenango.

Fondo Guatemalteco del Medio Ambiente (FOGUAMA)

FOGUAMA, a member of the Sistema Nacional de Gestión Ambiental, raises and administers funds from various sources to provide funding for initiatives that seek to ensure a sustainable environment for Guatemala.

development efficiency and results as the local country sees best fit. Its characteristics include:

leadership taken by the home country; the use of one main budget and program framework; a formalized process for the coordination of donors and consistency of requirements in relation to reporting, budgets, etc.; and an effort to increase local capacity for program design, management, implementation and evaluation.

4. Institutional gaps and challenges

There has been an increase in the number of government policies and agencies that have come into existence in relation to the themes of climate change and the environment more broadly, however, their funding and scope of influence may be limited or may contradict other extant policies. Additionally, due to a lack of funding, the GOG has a limited capacity for policy implementation or the ability to enforce relevant legislation.

The establishment of a number of new government entities with a mandate to work on the topic of climate change has led to “growing pains” related to their work structure, approach, collaboration, etc although the GOG has tried to address some of these issues through the various coordination mechanisms mentioned in Table 5. In addition, the demands of multiple development assistance programs and staff turn‐over in key GOG personnel appear to tax the capacity of GOG agencies and limit their continuity in policymaking and implementation processes on the topic.

Despite Guatemala’s steps in recent years and its newly created institutional architecture, climate change does not seem to play a significant role in the national discourse. Funding for relevant programs and ministries has been limited in comparison to the substantial need and outside development partners provide most of the funding to implement various activities on the topic. For example, public spending on the environment in 2006 was less than four percent13. National spending on the environment per person in 2006 was $11.80, which is considerably lower than Mexico ($47 per capita) and Costa Rica ($34 per capita)14.

Guatemala also faces institutional challenges attracting private sector investment. One of the main challenges to private sector investment in energy efficiency, clean production, and renewable energy was cited as a lack of “clear signals from the government” resulting from conflicting policies and a limited number of government incentives to help spur investment. The GOG, for its part, is concerned that their institutional strengthening efforts are hampered by the private sector’s resistance to GOG institutional reforms and new taxation measures. Outside of the government, the private sector also sees disconnects between the types of skills and knowledge held by graduates of Guatemalan universities and what the private sector requires.

Additionally, there are disconnects between central government policymaking and local action.

Although there are many laws enacted, the enforcement of these laws is generally weak. Local authorities highlight the lack of sufficient resources and/or technical capacity to enforce environmental and land use policies at local levels.

13 Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. Informe Ambiental del Estado de Guatemala – GEO 2009. 2009.

14 Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente (IARNA/URL). Sistema de Contabilidad Ambiental y Económica Integrada (SCAEI): Alcances para formular políticas de Estado.

There are also long‐standing challenges that the government faces when dealing with indigenous communities, making reforms such as land tenure difficult, and even impossible to implement. Citing a long history of grievances and unmet expectations, these communities remain cautious of working both with the GOG and the private sector. Such mistrust, together with traditional cultural beliefs about the natural world, has also prompted indigenous resistance to clean energy projects, such as hydropower development, with little distinction made between large and small projects. Moreover, high rates of poverty, together with cultural and/or language barriers, hamper public education and slow the adoption of technological innovation. For example, this results in continued reliance on firewood as a primary energy source in rural communities, which is a driver of deforestation in some parts of Guatemala.

Some of the major gaps for developing a LEDS in Guatemala include:

An overarching policy framework that guides integration of climate change across all sectors. At the political level, although MARN has interest in coordinating the process across all the relevant ministries, they do not have the capacity to do so. Climate change information is poorly synthesized, disseminated and used; thus, mitigation and adaption strategies are not adequately considered and integrated into policies, plans or projects.

Climate change language is often new or unfamiliar at the political level at some ministries, possibly reducing willingness to engage actively in this process.

While MARN has a high level of technical capacity on the issue of climate change, its staffing limitations and high rates of turnover means that they have a limited ability to implement their climate change strategy.

Although the Inter‐Institutional Commission on Climate Change exists and has the potential to support climate mainstreaming across the various institutions, it has not met during the current administration. As a result, there is currently no mechanism to support the integration of low emissions pathways into economic development planning.

5. Opportunities for engagement

In response to these various institutional challenges, there are two principle opportunities build capacity for low emissions development actions in Guatemala.

Promote senior buy‐in to the low emission development strategy process by building the capacity of senior Ministry officials and their technical staff (primarily outside of those Ministries that are already fully engaged on the topic of climate change) to understand the causes and effects of climate change within their specific sector and promote engagement on the topic. In partnership with local Universities (UVG, URL), assistance could be provided to develop short courses or workshops designed for both high level and technical level employees at various Ministries.

Establish pathways for better communication and education on climate issues for the GOG, the private sector, local and indigenous communities, academia and civil society organizations.

These could build upon the existing government and donor coordination groups that already exist on the topic of climate change, but expanding them to engage additional stakeholders.

National greenhouse gas inventories

The GHG inventory experts assessed various aspects important to producing a transparent, accurate, complete, consistent and comparable inventory on a more regular basis including: technical capabilities and capacity, use of technical tools, institutional arrangements, methods and data documentation, confidence in the activity data, choice of emission factors, Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) procedures,…