Att._J.4_UNDP_2014_National_Risk_And_Vulnerability_Assessment_2011-2012.pdf

NATIONAL RISK AND

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

2011 - 2012

(Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey)

NATIONAL RISK AND

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

2011 - 2012

(Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey)

The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12 was implemented by the Central Statistics Organization (CSO) of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan with technical assistance from ICON-Institute Public Sector Gmbh.

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication is the sole responsibility of CSO and ICON-Institute, and can in no way be taken as to reflect the views of the European Union.

For further information, please contact

CSO

www.nrva.cso.gov.af E-mail: esmatullah.hakimi@gmail.com

ICON-Institute www.icon-institute.de E-mail: christophe.dietrich@icon-institute.de (Project Manager) or b.j.debruijn@online.nl (Chief Analyst/Editor)

Delegation of the European Union to Afghanistan http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/afghanistan/index_en.htm E-mail: delegation-afghanistan-press@eeas.europa.eu

Recommended citation:

Central Statistics Organization (2014), National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-12. Afghanistan Living Condition Survey. Kabul, CSO.

Designed by: Mohammad Ashraf Abdullah

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Printed by: Jehoon Printing Press, Kabul, Afghanistan

FOREWORDi

FOREWORD

The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA), which is called Afghanistan Living Condition Survey (ALCS) by then is providing data about the country for almost 10 years. This publication is now the fourth release after the surveys of 2003, 2005 and 2007-08 by financial supporting of European Commission.

This new round of the survey has brought some more innovations and more details compared to the previous surveys. The questionnaire is now designed in modules that will be ‘rotating’ from round to round to cover all the needs for data to capture the living conditions of the nation.

This survey is still the only nation-wide survey available in Afghanistan and is therefore of utmost importance for the country, its policy makers and all the Organization investing in the future of the country. It is also capturing seasonal variations to make it more accurate to the various realities that the population face throughout the year, especially in terms of labour, poverty and food security.

As the principal agency responsible for the production of national statistics, the Central Statistics Organization is proud to deliver key indicators and statistics at national and provincial level for a broad array of development sectors, including population, poverty, food security, labour market, agriculture, health, education and housing.

The life of the survey is still on-going as a new round has just been launched as we published this report and I hope to be able to address you again in about 18 months to present you with the latest changes in the living conditions of the people of Afghanistan.

I sincerely hope you will enjoy reading this publication, find all the information you expect and use it fruitfully.

Associate Prof. Hasibullah Mowahed, Acting President General Central Statistics Organization of Afghanistan Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan ii

KEY INDICATORS

INDICATOR ANDS no. MDG no. Sub-groupsa National

Demography Percentage of population under 15 U 42.0; R 50.1; K 53.0 48.4

Percentage of population 65 and over U 3.3; R 2.2; K 2.3 2.5

Sex ratio U 105; R 106; K 110 106

Dependency ratio U 83; R 110; K 124 104

Child dependency ratio U 77; R 105; K 119 99

Aged dependency ratio U 6; R 5; K 5 5

Average household size U 7.5; R 7.4; K 7.3 7.4

Percentage of women in polygamous marriage 7.6

Percentage of married women aged 15-19 whose husband is 10 or more years older 7.9

Percentage of married women aged 20-24 whose husband is 10 or more years older 10.6

Under-five Mortality Rate 8.a 4.1 U 72; R 96 M 89; F 92 91

Infant Mortality Rate 8.b 4.2 U (34); R (54) M (49); F (46) (48)

Labour force (national definition)

Labour force participation rate M 80.0; F 18.5 U 43.1; R 51.3; K 64.4 49.8

Employment-to-population ratio 1.5 M 74.5; F 15.5 U 39.2; R 47.1; K 61.0 45.7

Percentage not-gainfully employed population M 21.8; F 39.3 U 17.6; R 26.9; K 28.7 25.0

Under-employment rate M 15.4; F 22.8 U 8.6; R 18.7; K 23.3 16.8

Unemployment rate M 6.4; F 16.5 U 9.0; R 8.2; K 5.4 8.2

Youth unemployment rate 17.a M 8.1; F 18.8 U 13.6; R 9.9; K 4.4 10.4

Youth unemployment as percentage of total unemployment M 38.1; F 40.8 U 46.3; R 37.4; K 24.9 39.1

Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment 1.7 M 79.3; F 87.0

U 59.3; R 85.6; K 95.7 80.5

Agriculture and livestock Percentage of households owning irrigated land 37.9

Percentage of households owning rain-fed land 16.8

Percentage of households owning a garden plot 12.6

Mean size of owned irrigated land (in jeribsb) 6.0

Mean size of owned rain-fed land (in jeribsb) 16.4

Mean size of owned garden plot (in jeribsb) 2.0

Median size of owned irrigated land (in jeribsb) 3.0

Median size of owned rain-fed land (in jeribsb) 7.0

Median size of owned garden plot (in jeribsb) 1.0

Number of cattle (in thousands) 3,715

Number of goats (in thousands) 7,281

Number of sheep (in thousands) 8,772

Number of chickens (in thousands) 12,156 aUurban, R: rural, K: Kuchi, M: male, F: female bOne jerib is 0.2 hectare (2,000 m2) ( ) Indicators between brackets are considered less reliable and are indicative only.

INDICATOR ANDS no. MDG no. Sub-groupsa National

Poverty Poverty headcount 1.a (alt) U 28.9; R 37.7; 53.8 36.5

Poverty gap 1.b 1.2 U 5.8; R 9.2; K 13.3 8.6

Squared poverty gap U 1.8; R 3.2; K 4.7 3.0

Gini Index U 29.2; R 28.1; K 22.3 31.6

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 1.c 1.3 8.5

Food security Percentage of population with calorie deficiency 2.b 1.9 U 34.4; R 29.1; K 25.6 30.1

Percentage of population with protein deficiency U 21.3; R 19.1; K 15.3 19.4

Percentage of population with calorie and protein deficiency U 20.3; R 18.2; K 14.5 18.5

Education

Adult literacy rate (15 years of age and over) M 45.4; F 17.0 U 53.5; R 25.0; K 7.2 31.4

Youth literacy rate (15-24 years of age) 3.c 2.3 M 61.9; F 32.1 U 71.4; R 39.1; K 9.7 47.0

Net attendance ratio in primary education 3.a 2.1 M 64.4; F 48.3 U 77.9; R 53.8; K 19.4 56.8

Net attendance ratio in secondary education M 42.0; F 23.2 U 54.3; R 26.3; K ... 32.7

Net attendance ratio in tertiary education M 8.1; F 2.7 U 13.1; R 2.4 5.4

Gross attendance ratio in primary education 3.a (alt) M 82.8; F 60.9 U 99.1; R 68.7; K 24.9 72.4

Gross attendance ratio in secondary education M 55.3; F 29.0 U 69.5; R 34.3; K 6.0 42.3

Gross attendance ratio in tertiary education M 9.1; F 3.8 U 15.3; R 3.1 6.5

Percentage of households within two kilometres distance from boys’ primary education facilities U 95.1; R 43.8; K 29.3 53.9

Percentage of households within two kilometres distance from girls’ primary education facilities U 96.5; R 36.4; K 26.8 48.1

Gender equality Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector 3.2 11.1

Literacy gender parity index, age 15 and over U 0.55; R 0.27 0.37

Literacy gender parity index, age 15-24 4.d (10) U 0.73; R 0.40; K 0.09 0.52

Ratio of girls to boys in primary education 4.a 3.1 U 0.90; R 0.68; K 0.54 0.74

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education 4.b 3.1 U 0.74; R 0.38 0.53

Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education 4.c 3.1 U 0.65; R 0.17 0.42

Health Percentage under-fives with vitamin-A supplementation U 75.8; R 56.4; K 50.5 59.8

Percentage under-fives with birth certificate U 63.8; R 29.5; K 16.3 35.2

Women with at least two TT injections U 42.8; R 34.6; K 13.1 34.9

Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit) 9.d 5.5 U 78.4; R 46.3; K 23.2 51.2

Antenatal care coverage (at least four visits) 5.5 U 20.8; R 7.7; K 3.5 9.9

Percentage of births attended by skilled health personnel 9.b 5.2 U 75.5; R 32.6; K 13.4 39.9

Percentage of deliveries in institutional facilities U 69.5; R 28.8; K 13.2 35.8 iii KEY INDICATORS iv

INDICATOR ANDS no. MDG no. Sub-groupsa National

Housing Percentage of households living in communities with distance to nearest drivable road of 2 or less kilometres

U 100.0; R 75.2;

K 60.4 80.0

Mean number of persons per room U 3.0; R 3.1; K 4.8 3.2

Percentage of households living in overcrowded dwellings U 33.6; R 35.5; K 69.9 37.0

Percentage of urban population living in slums 14.a (alt) 7.10 86.6

Percentage of population using improved drinking water sources 13.a 7.8 U 70.9; R 39.4; K 21.0 45.5

Percentage of population using an improved sanitation facility 13.b 7.9 U 29.1; R 2.4; K 0.0 8.3

Percentage of households with access to any source of electricity in the last month U 95.0; R 63.8; K 30.3 69.1

Percentage of population using solid fuels 12.e (29) U 32.5; R 93.4; K 99.8 79.9

Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 19.a 8.15 U 27.1; R 10.6; K 6.3 14.1

Internet users per 100 population 19.b 8.16 U 1.6; R 0.2; K 0.0 M 0.8; F 0.2 0.5 v TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword i

Key indicators ii

Table of contents v

List of tables viii

List of figures xi

List of text boxes xiii

Abbreviations xiv

Map of Afghanistan xv

Acknowledgements xvi

Executive summary xvii

1 Introduction 1

2 Survey methodology and operations 2

2.1 Introduction 2

2.2 Stakeholder involvement 2

2.3 Questionnaire design 2

2.4 Pilot training and pilot survey 3

2.5 Training and selection of field staff 3

2.6 Sampling design and implementation 4

2.7 Field operations 5

2.8 Data processing 5

2.9 Comparability of results 6

2.10 Data limitations 7

2.11 Reporting 7

3 Population structure and change 8

3.1 Introduction 8

3.2 Population structure and distribution 9

3.3 Household composition and marriage patterns 11

3.3.1 Household structure 11

3.3.2 Marriage patterns 12

3.4 Childhood mortality 15

3.5 Migration 16

3.5.1 General migration 16

3.5.2 International migration 18

3.5.3 Internal migration 22

3.5.4 Seasonal migration 25

3.5.5 Displacement 26

4 Labour force characteristics 29

4.1 Introduction 29

4.2 Labour force participation 29

4.3 Labour force characteristics 31

4.3.1 Conceptualization of employment and unemployment 31

4.3.2 Employment, underemployment and unemployment 32

4.4 Characteristics of the employed population 34

4.4.1 Status in employment 34

4.4.2 Economic sector and occupation 35

TABLE OF CONTENTS

viTABLE OF CONTENTS

4.4.3 Working hours 36

5 Agriculture and livestock 38

5.1 Introduction 38

5.2 Farming and horticulture 39

5.2.1 Irrigated land 39

5.2.2 Rain-fed land 43

5.2.3 Horticulture 45

5.2.4 Farming input costs 46

5.4 Livestock 46

5.4.1 Livestock numbers 46

5.4.2 Sale of animals and animal products 48

5.4.3 Livestock production factors 48

6 Poverty incidence, trend and profiling 50

6.1 Introduction 50

6.2 Measuring trends in poverty 2007-2011 51

6.3 Growth and distribution 52

6.4 Poverty profile 53

6.4.1 Demographic profile 54

6.4.2 Household head characteristics 55

6.5 Conclusions 56

7 Food security 57

7.1 Introduction 57

7.2 Current food security 58

7.3 Distribution by region 59

7.4 Comparison of food security between NRVA 2011-12 and NRVA 2007-08 59

7.5 Characteristics of the food-insecure population 60

7.5.1 Characterization by main income source 60

7.5.2 Characterization by asset ownership 61

7.5.3 Characterization by demographics 61

7.6 Seasonality and food insecurity 62

7.6.1 Afghan calendar seasonal differences 62

7.6.2 Harvest and lean season’s differences 63

7.7 Food access and supply 64

7.6.1 Availability of different food items by food security status 64

7.7.2 Availability of different food items by residence 65

7.7.3 Sources of food items by population group and food security status 65

7.7.4 Sources of food items by main income source 66

7.7.5 Sources of food items by season 66

7.8 Food consumption 66

7.8.1 Dietary diversity 66

7.8.2 Food Consumption Score 67

7.8.3 Contribution of different food groups to caloric intake 68

7.9 Coping with shocks 68

8 Education 70

8.1 Introduction 70

8.2 Educational attendance 71

vii TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.2.1 Educational attendance in residential and gender perspective 71

8.2.2 Change in educational attendance 73

8.2.3 Reasons for not attending 74

8.3 Educational attainment 76

8.4 Literacy 78

8.4.1 Literacy in residential and gender perspective 78

8.4.2 Change in literacy levels 81

9 Health 83

9.1 Introduction 83

9.2 Access to health services 83

9.2.1 Distance to nearest health facility and costs to reach it 83

9.2.2 Household expenditure on health 85

9.2.3 Visits to health care facilities 87

9.2.4 Use of health care providers 89

9.3 Child health 89

9.3.1 Birth registration 89

9.3.2 Child health indicators 90

9.4 Maternal health 91

9.4.1 Ante-natal care 91

9.4.2 Skilled attendance at birth and place of delivery 92

10 Housing and household amenities 95

10.1 Introduction 95

10.2 Tenancy and dwelling characteristics 95

10.2.1 Tenancy 95

10.2.2 Dwelling characteristics 96

10.3 Household amenities 98

10.3.1 Water and sanitation 98

10.3.2 Other household amenities 101

11 Challenges and strategies 105

11.1 Introduction 105

11.2 Indebted households 105

11.3 Household shocks and coping strategies 107

11.3.1 Household shocks 107

11.3.2 Coping strategies 109

11.4 Community development priorities 111

References 113

Annexes 115

I Persons involved in NRVA 2011-12 115

II Subjects covered in NRVA 2007-08 to 2015-16 116

III NRVA 2011-12 questionnaires 117

IV Sample design and implementation 165

V Population by age and sex 169

VI Mortality estimation 170

VII Updating the poverty line using NRVA 2011-12 173

VIII Food security analysis methodology 178

IX Quality assurance and quality assessment 182

X Tables at province level 190

XI Concepts and definitions 210 viiiLIST OF TABLES

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 NRVA 2011-12 household questionnaire modules 3

Table 2.2 NRVA 2011-12 Shura questionnaire modules 3

Table 3.1 Population, by residence, sex, and by age 10

Table 3.2 Households, by residence, and by selected household structure indicators 11

Table 3.3 Households and population, by household characteristics (in percentages) 12

Table 3.4 Population, by marital status, and by sex, age (in percentages) 13

Table 3.5 Childhood mortality indicators, by (a) residence and (b) sex 16

Table 3.6 Percentage of population living outside the district of current residence (a) at birth and (b) in October 2004, by previous place of residence, sex, and by current residence

Table 3.7 Immigrants (a) born abroad and (b) living abroad in October 2004, by current residence, and by country of origin (in percentages)

Table 3.8 Emigrants 14 years and over who emigrated in the year before the survey, by previous residence, and by country of destination (a) at birth and (b) in October 2004 (in percentages)

Table 3.9 In-migrants (a) born elsewhere in Afghanistan and (b) living elsewhere in Afghanistan in October 2004, by current residence, and by area of origin (in percentages)

Table 3.10 In-migrants (a) born elsewhere in Afghanistan and (b) living elsewhere in Afghanistan in October 2004, by current residence, and by residence of origin (in thousands)

Table 3.11 Percentage of population 14 years and over migrating for seasonal work in the year before the survey, by sex and by usual residence

Table 3.12 Households returned from displacement since 2002, by country of displacement, and by mode of return (in percentages)

Table 4.1 Labour force, by activity status, and by residence, sex (in thousands) 32

Table 4.2 Selected labour force indicators, by residence, sex (in percentages) 32

Table 4.3 Employed population, by residence, sex, and by status in employment (in percentages) 35

Table 5.1 Households, by ownership of irrigated land, irrigated land size (in percentages); also stating mean and median irrigated land size (in jeribs)

Table 5.2 Crop production from irrigated land in spring cultivation season prior to the survey 42

Table 5.3 Households, by ownership of rain-fed land, rain-fed land size (in percentages); also stating mean and median rain-fed land size (in jeribs)

Table 5.4 Crop production from rain-fed land in spring cultivation season prior to the survey 44

Table 5.5 Households, by access to garden plots, garden plot size (in percentages); also stating mean and median garden plot size (in jeribs)

Table 5.6 Crop production from garden plots in spring cultivation season prior to the survey 45

Table 5.7 Livestock numbers in Livestock Census 2002-02a and NRVA 2011-12, by animal type (in thousands); also stating households with specified animal type in NRVA 2011-12 (in thousands)

Table 5.8 Number of livestock and animal products sold in the year prior to the NRVA 2011-12 survey, by animal type (in thousands) and type of product (in thousands)

Table 5.9 Livestock owners that had vaccinated at least part of their livestock, by type of livestock owned (in percentages) 48

Table 6.1 Trends of poverty measures, by survey year 51

Table 6.2 Mean real per capita consumption (at 2011-12 prices), by poverty quintile 53

Table 6.3 Poverty headcount, by child dependency ratio (household level) 54

Table 6.4 Poverty headcount, poor- and total population shares, by selected characteristics of household head (in percentages)

Table 6.5 Poverty headcount, poor- and total population shares, by labor market characteristics of household head (in percentages)

Table 7.1 Levels of food security 57

Table 7.2 Population with types of food deficiency, by residence 58

Table 7.3 Food-insecure population, by food-security status, and by region 59

Table 7.4 Households, by livelihood group, asset holding and food insecurity (in percentages) 61

Table 7.5 Percentage of food-insecure households, by residence, and by selected household characteristics 62

Table 7.6 Percentage of food-insecure households, by year, harvest season, and by region 64 ix LIST OF TABLES

Table 7.7 Average quantity of foods available for consumption, by food security status, for selected food commodities (in grams per person per day)

Table 7.8 Average number of days of food consumption per week, by residence, and by selected food 67

Table 7.9 Households applying coping strategies, by residence, and by use of selected coping strategies (in percentages) 69

Table 8.1 Net and gross attendance ratio, by residence, and by education level, sex; Gender parity index, by residence, and by educational level; GAR/NAR ratio, by educational level

Table 8.2 Population 6-24 years not attending school, by school age, sex, and by residence, reason for not attending (in percentages)

Table 8.3 Population 25 years over, by sex, and by educational attainment 77

Table 8.4 Adult literacy rate, by residence, and by sex; Gender equity indicators, by residence 78

Table 8.5 Youth literacy rate, by residence, and by sex; Gender equity indicators, by residence 79

Table 9.1 Access characteristics of the nearest health facility for different health facilities, by residence 84

Table 9.2 Availability of health care staff in nearest health facility, by sex of staff, residence, and by health care provider, staff type (in percentages)

Table 9.3 Mean and median household health-related expenditure for A. Households with specified expenditure and B. all households, by expenditure type, residence (in Afghanis)

Table 9.4 In-patients (A) and out-patients (B) in the year before the survey, by sex, and by age 87

Table 9.5 Health care seekers in the year before the survey, by residence, and by health care provider 89

Table 9.6 Children under five years of age, by residence, and by different indicators (in percentages) 90

Table 10.1 Households, by residence, and by construction material for (a) walls, (b) roofs and (c) floors (in percentages) 97

Table 10.2 Households, by residence, and by number of rooms in the dwelling (in percentages); also stating occupancy density indicators

Table 10.3 Households, by location of cooking facility, and by residence (in percentages) 98

Table 10.4 Percentage of households with access to improved sources of drinking water, by residence; Time to reach drinking water source (all water sources), by residence

Table 10.5 Population, by use of improved sanitation, access privacy, and by residence (in percentages) 101

Table 10.6 Population using solid fuels for (a) cooking and (b) heating in winter, by residence (in percentages) 103

Table 11.1 Households, by debt status, debt amount (in percentages); also stating debt means (in Afs.) 106

Table 11.2 Households, by experience of household shocks, and by survey year, residence (in percentages) 108 xANNEX TABLES

ANNEX TABLES

Table IV.1 Districts excluded from sample frame for the reserve sample 166

Table IV.2 Interviewed households, by year, and by season (Shamsi calendar) 167

Table V.1 Population, by residence, sex, and by five-year age groups (in thousands) 169

Table VI.1 Sex ratio of children ever born and children dead, by age group of the mother 171

Table VI.2 Estimation of probability of dying and associated reference date, by sex 172

Table VII.1 Median of reported and predicted housing value, by residential dwelling type (in Afghanis) 175

Table VII.2 Consumption aggregate, by consumption-aggregate component, survey year, and by wealth quintile (in percentages) 176

Table VII.3 NRVA 2007-08 basic needs basket, by main food category (in kg. per person per day) 176

Table VII.4 NRVA 2011-12 poverty indicators 177

Table VIII.1 Seasonal crop calendar, by region, province 180

Table IX.1 Quality assurance dimensions and measures in NRVA 2011-12 183

Table IX.2 Sampling errors and confidence intervals for selected indicators 186

Table IX.3 Percentage missing values for selected variables 189

Table X.1 Population, by sex, and by province, age groups (in thousands) 190

Table X.2 Population, by sex, marital status, and by province (in thousands) 196

Table X.3 Population, by immigrant status, and by province (in thousands) 197

Table X.4 Working-age population, by labour force indicators 198

Table X.5 Employed population, by status in employment, and by province (in thousands) 199

Table X.6 Households, by ownership of different types of agricultural land (in thousands) 200

Table X.7 Mean and median size of owned land, for different types of land, by province (in jeribs) 201

Table X.8 Households, by distance to nearest primary education facility for boys and girls, and by province (in thousands) 202

Table X.9 Households, by distance to nearest lower secondary education facility for boys and girls, and by province (in thousands) 203

Table X.10 Literacy rate of population aged 15 years older, by sex, and by province 204

Table X.11 Net and Gross Primary Attendance Ratios, by sex, and by province 205

Table X.12 Net and Gross Secondary Attendance Ratios, by sex, and by province 206

Table X.13 Children under five years of age, by birth registration and Vitamin A supplementation, and by province 207

Table X.14 Women with a birth in the last five years, by maternal health services provided, and by province (in percentages)

Table X.15 Population, by access to housing amenities, and by province (in percentages) 209 xi LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Implementation of NRVA 2011-12 sampling clusters, by district 6

Figure 3.1 Population, by age and sex (in percentages) 9

Figure 3.2 Households and population, by household size (in percentages) 12

Figure 3.3 Male and female population, by age, and by marital status (in percentages) 14

Figure 3.4 Females age 15 to 49, by current age group, and by age at first marriage (in percentages) 14

Figure 3.5 Ever-married females, by current age, and by relative age of husband (in percentages) 15

Figure 3.6 Childhood mortality indicators, by survey 16

Figure 3.7 International migrants, by migrant type, and by age (in percentages) 20

Figure 3.8 Immigrants living abroad in October 2004, by main reason for immigration, and by country of residence in 2004 (in percentages)

Figure 3.9 Emigrants 14 years of age and older leaving in the past year, by main reason for emigration, and by country of destination (in percentages)

Figure 3.10 Annual immigration ratio since October 2004, by province 22

Figure 3.11 Life-time and recent in-migrants, by age (in percentages) 24

Figure 3.12 Recent in-migrants, by age, and by reason for in-migration (in percentages) 25

Figure 3.13 Percentage of population 14 years and over migrating for seasonal work in the year before the survey, usual residence, and by (a) provincial destination and (b) urban-rural destination

Figure 3.14 Households returned from displacement since 2002, by year of return, and by country of refuge (in percentages) 27

Figure 4.1 Labour force participation rate, by residence, and by sex 30

Figure 4.2 Labour force participation rate, by sex, and by age 31

Figure 4.3 Labour force not gainfully employed, by (a) residence and (b) sex, and by underemployment and unemployment (in percentages)

Figure 4.4 Percentage of the labour force not gainfully employed, by season, and by residence 34

Figure 4.5 Employed population 14 years and over, by sector of employment, and by sex (in percentages) 36

Figure 4.6 Working population, by sex, and by weekly working hours (in percentages) 37

Figure 5.1 Percentage of households owning irrigated farm land, by province 40

Figure 5.2 Percentage of irrigated land not cultivated, by district 41

Figure 5.3 Main source of water for irrigated land (in percentages) 42

Figure 5.4 Percentage of households owning rain-fed farm land, by province 43

Figure 5.5 National annual farming input costs, by type of production input (in million Afs.) 46

Figure 5.6 Percentage of households owning any cattle, by province 47

Figure 5.7 Main type of veterinary service provider and main reason not to use veterinary services 49

Figure 6.1 Trend of poverty headcount, by residence and region (in percentages) 52

Figure 6.2 Trend of Gini coefficient, by residence and region 53

Figure 6.3 Total population and poor population, by age (in percentages) 54

Figure 7.1 Population, by level of food security, and by residence, survey year (in percentages) 60

Figure 7.2 Population, by level of food security, and by residence, season (in percentages) 63

Figure 7.3 Households, by source of wheat flour, and by residence, food security status (in percentages) 66

Figure 7.4 Households, by Kcal intake, and by residence, Food Consumption Score (in percentages) 68

Figure 8.1 Education attendance rate, by sex, and by age 72

Figure 8.2 Net attendance ratio, by sex, and by survey for (a) primary education and (b) secondary education 73

Figure 8.3 Net attendance ratio, by educational level, and by season 74

Figure 8.4 Households within two kilometres distance from primary education facilities, by sex of student population, and by residence (in percentages)

Figure 8.5 Population 15 years and over, by educational attainment, and by age, for (a) males and (b) females 78

Figure 8.6 Adult literacy rate, by province, for (a) males and (b) females 80

Figure 8.7 Youth literacy rate, by sex, and by survey year 81 xiiLIST OF FIGURES

Figure 8.8 Literacy rate, by sex, and by age; Gender equity, by age 82

Figure 9.1 In-patients (A) and out-patients (B) in the year before the survey, by sex, and by age as percentage of the total population in the same age-sex group

Figure 9.2 Women age 15-49 with a live birth in the five years preceding the survey, by residence, and by the number of TT injections received during the last pregnancy (in percentages)

Figure 9.3 Women with a live birth in the five years preceding the survey who received maternal health care during their last pregnancy, by selected characteristics (in percentages)

Figure 9.4 Percentage of women with a live birth in the five years preceding the survey who were assisted by skilled birth attendants at last delivery, by provincelast pregnancy, by selected characteristics (in percentages)

Figure 9.5 Percentage of women with a live birth in the five years preceding the survey who received maternal health care during their last pregnancy and who delivered in institutional facilities, by survey (in percentages)

Figure 10.1 Households, by tenancy status, and by residence (in percentages) 96

Figure 10.2 Percentage of households with access to safe drinking water, by province 100

Figure 10.3 Households, by distance to the nearest drivable road to the community, and by residence (in percentages) 101

Figure 10.4 Households, by change in condition of the access road to the community, and by residence (in percentages) 102

Figure 10.5 Households, by source of electricity, and by survey year (in percentages) 103

Figure 11.1 Households, by assessment of their economic situation compared to one year before, and by residence 106

Figure 11.2 Percentage of households experiencing a drinking water shock in the year before the survey, by province 109

Figure 11.3 Percentage of households applying coping strategies, by residence 110

Figure 11.4 Households, by first community development priority for (a) male Shuras and (b) female Shuras, and by residence (in percentages)

ANNEX FIGURES

Figure VII.1 Total food consumption aggregate, by food group, and by survey year (in percentages) 174

Figure VII.2 Change in households that own selected durables between NRVA 2007-08 and NRVA 2011-12 (in percentages) 175 xiii LIST OF TEXT BOXES

LIST OF TEXT BOXES

Quality of age reporting 9

Infant- and Under-five Mortality Rate 15

MDG Indicators 4.1 and 4.2 – Under-five Mortality Rate and Infant Mortality Rate 16

Migration concepts 17

Labour force definitions 31

MDG Indicator 1.5 – Employment-to-population ratio 32

Labour indicators based on ILO definitions 34

MDG Indicator 1.7 – Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment 34

MDG Indicator 3.2 – Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector 36

MDG Indicator 1.2 – Poverty gap ratio 51

MDG Indicator 1.3 – Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 52

MDG Indicator 1.9 – Percentage of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 58

MDG Indicator 2.1 – Net attendance in primary education, both sexes 71

MDG Indicator 3.1 – Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education 73

MDG Indicator 2.3 – Literacy rates of 15-24 years old 79

Access to health care 84

Availability of health care staff 85

MDG Indicator 5.5 – Antenatal care coverage 92

MDG Indicator 5.2 – Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 92

MDG Indicator 7.10 – Percentage of urban population living in slums 97

MDG Indicator 7.8 – Proportion of the population using improved drinking water sources 99

MDG Indicator 7.9 – Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility 100

MDG Indicator 8.15 – Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 104

MDG Indicator 8.16 – Internet users per 100 population 104

Household shocks 107 xivABBREVIATIONS

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB - Asian Development Bank AHS - Afghanistan Health Survey ANC - Ante-Natal Care ANDS - Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANSP - Afghanistan National Statistical Plan ARI - Acute Respiratory Illness BPHS - Basic Package of Health Services CA - Consumption Aggregate CBN - Cost of Basic Needs CDC - Community Development Council CI - Confidence Interval CSO - Central Statistics Organization DfID - UK Department for International Development DPS - District Price Survey EA - Enumeration Area FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization FCS - Food Consumption Score GAR - Gross Attendance Ratio GDP - Gross Domestic Product GIZ - German Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GoA - Government of Afghanistan ICSE - International Classification of Status in Employment ILO - International Labour Organization IMR - Infant Mortality Rate ISCED - International Standard Classification of Education Kcal - Kilocalorie MAIL - Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock MDG - Millennium Development Goal MICS - Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MMR - Maternal Mortality Ratio MoE - Ministry of Education MoEc - Ministry of Economy MoF - Ministry of Finance MoEW - Ministry of Energy and Water MoLSAMD - Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Martyrs and Disabled MoUA - Ministry of Urban Affairs MoWA - Ministry of Women Affairs NAR - Net Attendance Rate NMAK - National Multi-sectoral Assessment of Kuchi MRRD - Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development MoUD - Ministry of Urban Development NRVA - National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment NSP - National Solidarity Programme PPS - Probability Proportional to Size PSO - Provincial Statistical Officer PSU - Primary Sampling Unit REFSA - Rapid Emergency Food Security Assessment RSO - Regional Statistical Officer SBA - Skilled Birth Attendance SC - Steering Committee TBA - Traditional Birth Attendants TFR - Total Fertility Rate TAC - Technical Advisory Committee U5MR - Under-five Mortality Rate UNDP - United Nations Development Programme UNECE - United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNFPA - United Nations Fund for Population Activities UNICEF - United Nations Children’s Fund UNU - Ultimate Sampling Unit TT - Tetanus Toxoid WB - World Bank WFP - World Food Programme

MAP OF AFGHANISTAN

xv MAP OF AFGHANISTAN xviACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment report has been through a long way to be reach the hands of the readers. It has been a very ambitious project in its objective and I am delighted to be able to present the result of this hard work to you dear reader.

As for all the project and publication of this scope, the list of persons who have contributed and made this publication a reality is very long and I will probably forget some persons. I pray that they will forgive me.

First of all, I would like to pay tribute to the memory of H.E. Abdul Rahman Ghafoori, President General of the Central Statistical Organization, who sadly left us before this publication could be released. He has always been a huge supporter to the NRVA and never spared his time and efforts to provide guidance, vision and support to the staff and experts working on the project. He will be dearly missed.

I would then like to thank the European Union Delegation to Afghanistan and in particular Mr. Giacomo Miserocchi, Attaché Rural Development, Mr. Wali Mohammed Farhodi, Programme Manager - Rural Development for their endless support in implementing this project as well as Mr. Kristian Orsini, Acting Head of Operation for his commitment. The EU Delegation is our main donor in this project and this publication would never have been published without their commitment.

I would also like to make a special mention to the United Nations World Food Programme for their on-going support to the NRVA.

Their help was greatly appreciated, as well as its input in training and in a wide range of survey issues. In this respect, the role of Mr.

Amanullah Assil, Programme Officer VAM, has been invaluable. I would like to thank Mr. Amanullah Assil in particular, as well as Mrs.

ThiVan Hoang and Mr. William Affif for their assistance and commitment throughout the survey.

Several other international organization were involved and provided assistance to the survey. I would like to thank Ms. Silvia Redaelli, Economist, and Mr. Dean Joliffe, chair of the Technical Advisory Committee, from the World Bank for their contribution to the TAC and their contribution to the Poverty chapter. I am also grateful to UNICEF and especially Mrs. Siping Wang, ILO, and more specifically Mr. Herve Berger.

A special partner for CSO in the last year has been the Senior Adviser of the UNDP Capacity Development Project, Dr. Mishra.

This also enables me to thank to other major contributors to the Steering Committee, namely Mr. Esmatullah Ramzi, adviser for CSO to the President and Prof. Hasibullah Mowahed, Deputy President General, and now Acting President General of CSO for the valuable technical input during the Steering Committee meetings as well as their knowledge of the country and its people.

This survey has benefited for a large support from the international community but could also count on the continuous commitment of the Technical Assistance experts from ICON INSTITUTE Public Sector and especially from the Team Leader Mr. Jan Bartlema who has showed a great patience in managing the team. Another person whose invaluable commitment must be acknowledged is Mr. Bart de Bruijn, the Chief Editor of this report. His assistance and work throughout the years has been a great asset to the office and he has performed an unbelievable work in assisting CSO in the production of this report. I also would like to thank the project managers from ICON who have never spared their efforts to make this project a success, first of them is Mrs. Inga Korte who has initiated the project and Mr. Christophe Dietrich who has taken over from her in the later stage.

Of course, I would also like to thank the staff of CSO for the work they have done in conducting the survey and in particular Mr.

Esmatullah Hakimi, Mr. Ahmad Khalid Amarkhel, Mr. Muneer Jamshid, Mr. Tamim Ahmad Shakeb from the NRVA Team, Mr. Whaheed Ibrahimi from the Database section, Mr. Zubair from the data entry section and Mrs. Shakeeba from the GIS section.

I would like to address a special thank to all the contributors to the report, Silvia Redaelli (WB), Mr. Elliot Vhurumuku and Mr. Amanullah Assil (WFP), Ahmad Khalid Amarkhel (CSO) and Bart de Bruijn (ICON).

Finally, I would like to thank the field staff and the respondents to the survey without whom the survey would not have been possible, and of course, I would like to thank you, the readers for getting interest for the living conditions of the people of Afghanistan and the work of the Statistical organization.

Mohamed Sami Nabi Director of Field Operation Department Central Statistical Organization xvii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The 2011-12 National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) is a survey, which provides national and international stakeholders with information that is required for monitoring development progress and formulate development policies and programmes. The survey was conducted by the Central Statistics Organization (CSO) of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and provides results that are representative at national and provincial level. It covered 20,828 households and 159,224 persons across the country, and is unique in the sense that it also includes the nomadic Kuchi population of Afghanistan. Building on previous survey rounds in 2003, 2005 and 2007-08, it has grown into Afghanistan’s most comprehensive source of statistical information. The survey covers a wide range of development themes and indicators, which were agreed upon by government departments, donors and international Organizations.

The picture that emerges from the NRVA 2011-12 is one of significant improvements in various areas of development, especially in education, health and access to safe drinking water. In other areas – such as food security and poverty – results indicate stagnation or even deterioration. Despite observed improvements in many areas, the living conditions of Afghanistan’s population as measured by any development indicator are among the worst in the world. Moreover, the national figures conceal dramatic differences within the population. With only very few exceptions, the situation in urban areas is much better than that in rural areas and among the Kuchi population. And invariantly, gender-specific indicators show that men and boys are far less disadvantaged than women and girls.

The remainder of this summary recapitulates the main findings of the thematic chapters of this report. An in-depth analysis of the interaction between development indicators – and more specifically the apparent nexus between poverty, food insecurity, poor labour market performance, low levels of education, high fertility and mortality, and limited access to services – is beyond the scope of this report and will require additional efforts.

Population

The population share of children under 15 of 48 percent is among the highest in the world. Afghanistan’s very young age structure produces a situation in which a relatively small number of persons in the economically most productive age group 15-64 has to provide for a very large number of people in the dependent ages below 15. This implies a heavy burden for the working population, especially given the poor labour market opportunities in Afghanistan. The fact that the labour market to a large extent excludes women further aggravates this burden for the working population. The high fertility level underlying the young population composition also implies high risks for maternal and child mortality, especially in view of the poor access to health services in the country. In addition, the ever-increasing numbers of children and young adults exceed the absorption capacity of the education system and the labour market.

The Under-five Mortality Rate (U5MR) of 91 deaths per thousand live births confirms a robust downward trend in the percentage of children dying before reaching age 5. It suggests that in the four years since NRVA 2007-08 (with an U5MR of 161) out of one thousand newborn children 70 more survive to age 5.

Besides fertility and mortality, migration is a very important component in population change in Afghanistan. The migration context of the country is particularly complex and is, among others, related to job opportunities, security, (nomadic) lifestyle, gender roles and policies toward Afghans in neighbouring countries. This results in an intricate interaction of gender, age, distance and reasons for migration. Around 16 percent of the population in Afghanistan is born in a district that is different from the district of current residence; 6 percent is born in another province and 3 percent in another country. The corresponding percentages of the urban population born elsewhere are significantly higher, respectively 36, 18 and 4 percent. Kabul is the biggest magnet of attraction by far, and for both internal and international migrants:

out of 4.2 million inhabitants, some 360 thousand people were born abroad and 1.9 million elsewhere in Afghanistan.

Immigration is dominated by persons arriving from Pakistan (67 percent) and Iran (32 percent). For emigrants Iran is by far the most important destination (76 percent), with smaller numbers going to Pakistan (13 percent) and the Gulf states (8 percent) alongside other countries.

Marriage remains almost universal in Afghanistan and is characterized by early marriage for women. However, the share of marriages below age 18 is consistently dropping for each successive birth cohort in the last decade: whereas 60 percent of women 30 and over were married at age 18, for women aged 20-25 this decreased to 50 percent. Similarly, the age difference between husband and wife has decreased from a mean difference of 7 years for women aged 40 and over to 4 years for women under 20. Both trends could be interpreted as a strengthening of the position of women within marriage.

Labour force characteristics

Two factors dominate the Organization of Afghanistan’s labour market: the importance of the agricultural sector – farming and livestock – and the underrepresentation of women. Afghanistan’s labour force – all persons in the working age of 14 and over who are currently active by being either employed or unemployed – shows a large gender disparity. Out of the labour force of 7.2 million persons, only 1.3 million are women. These numbers underlie the vastly different labour force participation rates for men and women – 80 and 19 percent respectively – and indicate the difficulty for women to economically add to the position of their households, as well as to the economy at large. The share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector – the labour force MDG indicator for gender equality – is only 11 percent. The finding that high participation rates are found for boys 14 and over, as well as for elderly men 65 and over, indicate the dire need for many to contribute to the household income.

In the context of Afghanistan – characterized by low-paid, low-productivity employment and the absence of pensions and unemployment insurance – international definitions of employment and unemployment are largely irrelevant as indicators of labour market performance. Therefore, the country has adopted national definitions that are better attuned to the Afghanistan reality. In this national conceptualisation, the labour-market indicator that is considered to have most policy relevance is the percentage of the labour force that is not gainfully employed. This not-gainfully employed population includes the category of underemployed – persons who need more or other employment in order to provide for sufficient and sustainable income or livelihood – besides the unemployed.

The share of the labour force that belongs to the not-gainfully employed is 25 percent, indicating that the labour market is short of 1.8 million jobs to provide people with an adequate living. Some 17 percent of these are considered underemployed and the remaining 8 percent are unemployed. The figures for the not-gainfully employed differ sharply by residence: whereas 18 percent of the urban labour force cannot find adequate work, the figure is as high as 29 percent for the rural labour force. The corresponding figures for men and women are, respectively 22 and 39 percent, indicating that almost two in five women who want to work cannot find adequate employment. The share of not-gainfully employed youth aged 15-24 (26 percent) is similar to the share of the total labour force, but the component of youth unemployment is somewhat higher (10 against 8 percent).

The share of the working population that is in vulnerable employment – own-account workers, day labourers and unpaid family workers – is 81 percent, 79 percent for men and 87 for women. The sector that absorbed the largest share of the employed (40 percent) is agriculture. Compared to men, female work is much more concentrated in just a few sectors, particularly in livestock tending and food processing. Also in terms of working hours large gender differences are observed: on average men work 45 hours a week and women 30.

Agriculture and livestock

Farming – and more particularly farming irrigated land – is the economic backbone of Afghan society: some 40 percent of the labour force is engaged in farming. Around 38 percent of all households own any irrigated farm land and the corresponding figures for households owning rain-fed land and garden plots are, respectively, 17 and 13 percent.

Households owning irrigated land on average own 6 jeribs, with more than half (57 percent) owning an area of 3 jeribs or less. Those owning rain-fed land on average own 16 jeribs, with around half (51 percent) owning 7 jeribs or less.

Cereals – especially wheat, the principal staple food in Afghanistan – are the main farm produce from both farmland types. Around 80 percent of wheat is produced on irrigated land. NRVA results suggest a spring cultivation production of 2.4 million tonnes of wheat in 2011 and 2.8 million tonnes in 2012, which would indicate a serious shortfall of the wheat requirements of around 5 million tonnes. Garden plots are on average 2.0 jeribs and for 53 percent of plot-owning households one jerib or less. They represent an important supplementation of households’ diet and income, as they provide high-value and nutrition-rich produce, in particular fruits and nuts.

Among the main challenges for a productive agricultural sector are water shortage and infertility of farmland. Some 20 percent of the estimated 17 thousand km2 of irrigated farmland is left fallow, primarily because of lack of water (71 percent) and land infertility (21 percent). For rain-fed land (18 thousand km2) the share that is not cultivated is even 37 percent, mainly because of lack of rain (53 percent) and land infertility (18 percent).

The national stock of cattle seems to have dropped since the Livestock census of 2002-03. The NRVA 2011-12 estimates the number at 2.9 million, compared to 3.7 million at the time of the census. On the other hand, the herds of xviiiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

small ruminants show significant increases. The number of sheep and goats are estimated at, respectively, 10 and 18 million, compared to 7 and 9 million in the census. The share of households that own one or more cattle, goats, sheep and chickens is, respectively, 39, 29, 31 and 44 percent. Besides providing households with a range of dairy and animal products, market sales of animals or livestock products are an important income source for these households.

With regard to livestock production factors, NRVA 2011-12 shows a relatively good vaccination coverage (between 72 and 91 percent for different types of livestock), but relatively low access to feed concentrate (53 percent). Livestock owners significantly (67 percent) rely on private service providers for veterinary services.

Poverty incidence, trend and profiling

NRVA 2011-12 indicates that 36.5 percent of the Afghan population has a consumption pattern that is below the poverty line. The indicators that measure the depth and severity of poverty (the poverty gap and the squared poverty gap) have values of 8.6 and 3.0, respectively. These figures imply that at national level no poverty change is observed in Afghanistan since the NRVA 2007-08, although at regional level some changes are evident. The stable poverty figures also imply that, due to rapid population growth, in terms of absolute numbers the volume of poor people has increased.

Survey results also show that inequality over time has grown, with consumption of the richer quintile growing much faster than that of the poorest two quintiles. Consequently, the Gini Index increased from 29.7 to 31.6 between the latest two NRVA surveys and the share of the poorest quintile in national consumption declined from 9.1 to 8.5 percent.

The national poverty figures hide significant differentiation across regions and residence. Thus – and similar to 2007- 08 – the urban poverty headcount is 28.9 percent, compared to 37.7 percent for rural residents and 53.8 percent for the Kuchi population.