Att._J.22_USAID_E3_Bureau_2014.pdf

KA FAA 118/119 YSIS

LIST OF ACRONYMS

AAEP USAID Afghanistan Agricultural Extension Project ADB Asian Development Bank ADF Agricultural Development Fund AITF Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund ANDS Afghan National Development Strategy ARS USDA Agricultural Research Service ARTF Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund AWATT USAID Afghanistan Water, Agriculture and Technology Transfer Project BFS USAID Bureau of Food Security CBA Cost Benefit Analysis CDC Community Development Council CHAMP USAID Horticulture and Agricultural Marketing Program CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre CSO Central Statistics Organization DAIL Directorate of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock DFID U.K. Department for International Development DLFS MAIL Dry Land Farming Strategy E3/W USAID Bureau of Economic Growth, Education and Environment/Water EIRP WB Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation Project ERR Economic Rate of Return FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FAS USDA Foreign Agricultural Service FRR Financial Rate of Return GDI General Directorate of Irrigation GDNRM General Directorate Natural Resource Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan IA Irrigation Association IAWM Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management ICARDA International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas IDEA-NEW USAID Incentives Driving Economic Alternatives for North, East & West IDIQ Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity Contract ILG-NRM USAID Improving Livelihoods and Governance through Natural Resources

Management IRDP WB Irrigation Restoration and Development Project IWMP USAID Irrigation and Watershed Management Program LEPA Low Energy Precision Application KRB Kabul River Basin MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock MEW Ministry of Energy and Water MFF ADB Multi-Financing Facility MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NPV Net Present Value NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 2 USAID/Afghanistan, June 2014

NRCS USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service NPP National Priority Programs NPP2 Afghanistan’s National Comprehensive Agriculture Production and Market

Development Program NVDA Nangahar Valley Development Authority OAG USAID/Afghanistan Office of Agriculture O&M Operations and Maintenance OAPA USAID Office of Afghanistan/Pakistan Affairs OFWM On-Farm Water Management PARB ADB Panj-Amu River Basin Project PI Program Integrator QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control RADP-N Regional Agricultural Development Program—North RADP-S Regional Agricultural Development Program--South USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture WB World Bank WRDIP ADB Water Resources Development Investment Project WUA Water User Association WUE Water Use Efficiency

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary ……..…………………….………………………….……………. 6

2. Purpose, Scope, and Methodology ……..………………………………………………. 11

3. Introduction ………..………..………………………………………………………….. 12

3.1 The agricultural economy …………………………………………………12

3.2 Afghanistan land and water resources and projected climate impacts ……13

3.3 The irrigation sector ……………………………………………………..14

3.4 The enabling context …………………………………………………….15

3.5 Donor investments and other international organizations …………………16

4. Needs and Opportunities for More Productive Use of Agricultural Water ………….18

4.1 Watershed rehabilitation ………………………………………………….18

4.2 Rehabilitation and upgrade of irrigation infrastructure ……………………20

4.3 Improved on-farm water productivity ……………………………………23

4.4 Examples of OFWM technology transfer with Afghan farmers …………28

4.5 Features of successful irrigated agricultural projects ……………..……….32

4.6 Improved rain-fed agriculture ……………………………………………..33

4.7 Capacity strengthening …………………………………………………….34

5. Strategic and Programmatic Options and Recommendations ….………….……….. 35

5.1 Theory of Change ………………………………………………………….35

5.2 Strategic considerations and principles ……………………………………36

5.3 Geographic considerations …………………………………………………38

5.4 General considerations and suggested mechanisms ……………………..39

6. Conclusion …………………………………………………………………..…………… 49

7. Annexes ……………………………………………………………..…………………….51

Annex 1: Short Bios of TDY Team Members…………………………………….…..51 Annex 2: Related Donor Programs……………………………………………………53 Annex 13: Reduction of the quantity of water delivered via irrigation utilizing a range of technical and management practices ……………………………65 Annex 20: Key Inputs for Creating an IAWM Program Theory of Change ……..….…72

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The following annexes are in a GoogleDoc folder and can be located at hyperlinks as indicated in this report:

Annex 3A: Watershed Rehabilitation as a Result of Strengthened Capacity of MAIL Work

Plan Annex 3B: Afghanistan-Pakistan-United States Trilateral Watershed Rehabilitation and

Irrigation Technology Program, Final Report, March 30, 2014 Annex 3C: Watershed Rehabilitation as a Result of Strengthened Capacity of MAIL Annex 4: NEW - Irrigation and Watershed Management Program: Preliminary Assessment

Methodology Annex 5: The World Bank, Report No. ICR0002198, Implementation Completion and

Results Report to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan for the Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation Project, 21 June 2012

Annex 6: Detailed Description of Project Components Afghanistan: Irrigation Restoration and Development Project

Annex 7: The World Bank, Report No: 58454-AF, Emergency Project Paper for the Afghanistan Irrigation Restoration and Development Project, April 8, 2011

Annex 8: The World Bank Report No. 77375-AF; Restructuring Paper on a Proposed On- Farm Water Management Project ARTF Grant to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, April 2013

Annex 9: Quarterly Report July-September 2013, Incentives Driving Economic Alternatives for the North, East and West (IDEA-NEW). July 1-September 30, 2013

Annex 10: The World Bank Afghanistan OFWM 4 Jan 2014 Report Annex 11: The World Bank Afghanistan OFWM 08-Sep-2014 Report Annex 12: Water Productivity & Efficiency, plus Illustrative Interventions: Promoting On-

Farm Agricultural Water Productivity and Efficiency Annex 14: Water Use Efficiency (WUE) Annex 15: Yemen Roof-top Rainwater Water Harvesting and Drip Irrigation Systems for

Addressing Problems from Water Scarcity Annex 16: Impact of OFWM and Irrigation Rehabilitation Interventions on Agricultural

Water Productivity Annex 17: AWATT IFDC Final Report Annex 18: Details on the justification for using the AWATT Project as an “Example of

OFWM technology transfer with Afghan farmers” Annex 19: USAID Afghanistan Alternative Livelihood Project –Southern Region, The

Economic Feasibility of Drip Irrigation in Afghanistan Annex 21: The Importance of Gross Margin as An Important Measure for Farmer Net

Income Annex 22: Statement of Work (SOW) for project titled “Irrigation and Watershed

Management Program”

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1. Executive Summary

The USAID/Afghanistan Office of Agriculture (OAG) faces the challenge of designing a new project related to irrigation, agriculture, and watershed management to succeed the former Irrigation and Watershed Management Program (IWMP). In order to assist OAG with meeting the challenge, a request for technical assistance was made to the Bureau for Economic Growth, Education, and Environment’s Water Office (E3/W) to provide strategic and programmatic recommendations for the development of an Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management (IAWM) Program. E3/W fielded a TDY team for three weeks in June 2014 consisting of a sustainable agriculture/natural resources management specialist, a water resources management specialist, and irrigation specialist. This report examines the relevant context, needs, opportunities, and recommendations related to a potential new IAWM program.

Afghanistan has an estimated 8.27 million ha of potentially productive agricultural land.

However, unless improvements are made to rehabilitate or upgrade irrigation infrastructure, to increase capture and storage of water, and to improve the productivity of on-farm water, only some 2.52 million ha of land can be optimized for irrigation at present, and only 3.22 million ha would be potentially irrigable in the future.

Despite this, all five basins have considerable potential for improved agricultural productivity through improvements to storage, conveyance, and productive use of on-farm water.

Afghanistan has one of the lowest per capita water storage capacities in the world; 100 m3 per capita compared with 6,000 m3 in the U.S.

Climate modelling predictions indicate a future of increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and faster snow melt.1 Increased soil evaporation, reduced river flow from earlier snow melt, and less frequent rain during peak cultivation seasons will impact upon agricultural productivity and crop choice. Crop failure due to water shortages and the amount of potentially productive land left uncultivated will likely increase. USAID is in a highly favorable position to provide support to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) for the development of a strategic investment plan for irrigated agriculture.

Decreasing the impacts of flooding, sediment loading, landslides, and conflict between farmers and pastoralists, while increasing the base flow and overall water availability supplying water to irrigation systems, improving water storage infrastructure, and repairing or upgrading irrigation systems is the pathway to a more productive and sustainable agricultural sector. It will require a “systems approach”, focusing initially on the causes of land degradation, but that also involves sub-basin and irrigation system assessment, data and information about water, soil, and other natural resources, a vigorous technology and knowledge transfer program through extension services, engagement with the private sector, and a robust governance system that acknowledges

1 DFID. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan. CNTR-08 8507. No date.

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 6 and successfully tackles the essential challenge of simultaneous management of both land and water resources.

Strategic Considerations and Principles:

Target Growth but with Equity: Over 80 percent of Afghanistan’s irrigation systems are traditionally built and owned by small land owners. The majority of donor investment in the sector today is focused on the rehabilitation and upgrade of the large, modern systems, which comprise some 10 percent of total irrigation in the country. While it is strategic to focus improvements on these large systems to realize their potential contributions to GDP and national food security, it is necessary to simultaneously work to improve the productivity and sustainability of the traditional systems. These smaller but more numerous systems employ the largest share of labor in the agricultural sector and are owned by the most economically marginalized portion of the population. Moreover, should economic success and other opportunity for these small landowners fail to materialize, the problem of rural-to-urban drift will continue to grow. There is thus strategic imperative to invest in the traditional irrigation sub-sector, and to do so beginning today.

Promote Private Sector led Growth, Profitability, and Sustainability Several of the large, modern irrigation systems are owned and operated by parastatal corporations, as exemplified by the Nangahar Valley Development Authority (NVDA). To overcome entrenched bureaucracy and business inefficiency in these systems, donors have worked to encourage MAIL to divest governmental interests to the private sector wherever appropriate and possible. USAID should follow suit, and go further to instill a “triple bottom line” approach to every component of our investment package. That is, every component should demonstrate social, economic, and environmental safeguards, and be based upon dual criteria and targets of profitability and sustainability (in all of its dimensions, including governance, operations and maintenance, capacity strengthening and extension, sustainable water and control of off-farm impacts, on-farm best practices, etc.).

Rehabilitate, Upgrade, and Increase Efficiency of Irrigation Infrastructure While it is clear that the country will require considerably more water storage capacity in the future, construction of large infrastructure is no longer in USAID’s strategic sphere. Nor should investment in new irrigation infrastructure (expansion) be given high priority. Rather, USAID should follow suit in MAIL’s own analysis and give sequential priority to: (i) rehabilitation or upgrade of existing infrastructure; (ii) improve efficiency and productivity of existing on-farm water management; and (only then), (iii) consider a strategic expansion into new irrigated area.

USAID resources are limited and at the national scale the tasks are large. Significant efficiency gains can be achieved with targeted rehabilitation and upgrading of existing infrastructure, coupled with construction of some small, lower technology options for water capture/storage infrastructure. Most gains, however, can be made through improved operation of the systems, agronomic practices, and better use of hydro-met data and information.

Rehabilitate Watersheds and Transform Rangeland Management Nearly 50 percent of the total land area of Afghanistan is designated as upper catchment. And although millions of dollars continue to be lost to the recurrent expense of cleaning irrigation

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 7 smehr Highlight smehr Highlight canals and channels of sediment, efforts and investments to curtail further landscape degradation continue to lag behind what is needed. USAID should adopt a “watershed framework” and require that stakeholders participate in an initial rapid reconnaissance and mapping of the physical, biological, and human landscape of activities within their own watershed.

Lead the Country toward Climate Resilient Agriculture Enabling farmers and pastoralists to plan for and cope with the impacts of climate change should be an explicit objective of the USAID irrigation and watershed management efforts in Afghanistan. Clearly, the trends already underway and the likelihood of more significant impacts in the coming years and decades call for increasing urgency to begin now to incorporate more integrated thinking into programming for the sector. While there may be marginal resiliency gains to be made through adaptations to existing practices, USAID can demonstrate thought leadership in broader, more systemic terms, such as diversification of production systems and livelihoods. Climate resilient agriculture will need to simultaneously consider multiple risks – climate variability, market risk, competing demands for and growing scarcity of water, to name but a few – and begin to promote integrated science and multi-disciplinary approaches to planning in the sector.

Strengthen Community Led Stewardship and Governance It has been suggested that the destruction of trees (natural forests and planted) was the greatest environmental disaster that occurred during the war years, further exacerbated by the five-year drought beginning in 2000. The UNDP has stated that the restoration of forests and other vegetative cover, combined with grazing management, are high priorities to combat erosion, desertification, and flood risks.2 Participatory watershed management offers the best hope for effective and sustainable reversal of this degradation, and it is government policy to do so.3 And when the above-mentioned watershed mapping is undertaken by the same owners and interests vested in the irrigation works downstream, there is powerful incentive for commitment and action. USAID investments to strengthen community-led governance – involving farmers, irrigation associations, water user associations, and pastoralists – will help build trust, reduce conflict, and instill a stewardship ethic that will pay dividends for years and decades to come.

Geographic considerations:

Despite the desire to be fully strategic about geographic target areas, and given the large funding pipeline at the Mission, it is prudent to begin immediately to collaborate with other donors to take advantage of the experience, planning, and implementation mechanisms they have already developed. The team feels it is important for USAID to move quickly to scope, procure, and get started as soon as possible with a contractor that has the capacity to help complete a rapid strategic review of the irrigation sector. At the same time the contractor is assisting GIRoA with mapping and assessing the country’s irrigation infrastructure and other needs for agricultural water management, the contractor should also be tasked with providing a separate but complementary set of activities that add value to and help ensure sustainability for the Regional Agriculture Development Programs (RADPs).

2 UNDP. Afghanistan’s First National Human Development Report: Security with a Human Face. 2005.

3 Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Food (MAAHF). Community Forestry and Rangeland Management Policy. 2004.

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General considerations and suggested mechanisms

Much work is needed to help re-invigorate the country’s agriculture sector, but it must be properly sequenced if steady and sustained progress is to be achieved. MAIL has broadly identified that sequence as follows: (1) give urgent and immediate attention to the rehabilitation of degraded watersheds; (2) next priority is to improve the efficiency and productivity of existing irrigation systems; and (3) only then begin investments towards expansion into new lands and irrigation infrastructure. Viewed from another angle, proper sequencing should also consider coordination and capacity-building.

USAID watershed rehabilitation investments should include efforts to assist MAIL to develop a national inventory of irrigation systems and to apply agreed upon criteria to undertake a rapid assessment of those systems with respect to their current status, needs, and opportunities. In conjunction with the development of a national inventory of irrigation systems in irrigated and rain-fed agricultural production areas, additional concurrent efforts should include: (1) an assessment of the present and future market access for agricultural products at the present level of production with existing unimproved irrigation and agricultural water management systems/practices, and a subsequent assessment when the improved irrigation and agricultural water management systems/practices are adopted; and (2) an assessment of the access by farmers/pastoralists to critical inputs (water, seed, fertilizer and pesticides) in order to maximize the production response to availability of water (irrigation/and or rainfall). A rapid inventory and assessment of existing irrigation systems in RADP target areas can and should include a rapid assessment of key sustainability criteria, including the current context related to social, economic, environmental, political, and governance factors.

Program Integrator (USAID contractor)

A Program Integrator (PI, contractor) is suggested by the TDY Team as a way to most effectively monitor, report on, evaluate, and apply adaptive management, as well as facilitate coordination on meetings, reporting and communications with multiple actors (USG entities, host govt. entities and NGOs). The Program Integrator (PI) will be the prime contractor leading a consortium of organizations responsible for implementing the IAWM program under the auspices of USAID/Afghanistan.

Protected agriculture

The TDY team recommends further analysis and discussions with MAIL be taken to ascertain the interest and feasibility of scaling up “protected agriculture under contract” in Afghanistan.

Protected agriculture is carried out year-round in many places within greenhouse/hoop-house structures and involving extremely water-efficient operations (usually drip irrigation). The task would be to explore market linkages with, for example, the UAE and other countries in the region, to see if contract farming with guaranteed markets would be of mutual interest. The team has discussed this idea with USDA colleagues who know the region well and there is consensus that this should be further explored. This would be a likely task under the PI contract as well.

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Capacity Strengthening

The TDY team recommends a primary focus on capacity building for MAIL and DAILs that are working with the RADPs. With the draw-down of troops over the coming months the ability of our implementing partners to operate will be constrained; thus a need to rely more heavily on government and Afghan NGOs for direct on-the-ground technical assistance.

Dr. Otto Gonzalez (USDA/FAS), with extensive experience in the Afghanistan/Pakistan regions, makes the following recommendation to OAG: "I would recommend that whatever project you finally settle on has a large capacity-building component for MAIL, and a large capacity-building component for potential private-sector actors (e.g., land preparation service providers, irrigation supply and service providers, farmer advisory services, firms and local organizations that might do reforestation, check dams, erosion control, and spring boxes). Ultimately you want MAIL to be left with the capacity to direct or promote watershed improvements and irrigation improvements to farmers and their communities, and a private-sector that can promote and sustain the implementation of these practices. The precise practices may differ according to the RADP area (e.g., high-value large or medium-sized farms vs. those moving from wheat subsistence etc.) while other practices (e.g., learning how to judge soil moisture and irrigating when needed, how to properly dig depressions that channel water to each orchard tree) may be more common across RADPs."

Key Collaboration with Other Donors

Asia Development Bank Collaboration

It is recommended that OAG collaborate with ADB on an initial set of activities in order to build a relationship, learn from each other, and help USAID achieve some of the “early results” that it seeks. Funds can be passed through the existing AITF. The ADB has outlined three opportunities: (1) the Panj-Amu River Basin Project; (2) the Water Resources Development Investment Project (WRDIP), Tranche 3; and (3) the Helmand River Basin Project. The TDY team recommends an initial focus on one of the first two of these opportunities, since the Helmand project is not scheduled for approval by the ADB Board until second quarter of 2016, and the recent decision to not raise the height of the Dahla Dam raises questions/concerns about the sustainability of water in any expanded irrigation scenario for the Helmand Basin.

World Bank On-Farm Water Management Project

It is likewise recommended that OAG collaborate with the World Bank on its current, and soon to be extended, On-Farm Water Management (OFWM) program. The program will be extended by three years through 2018, with a ceiling increase of $20-25 million. The WB OWFM program works through on-budget support to MAIL and focuses on medium to large-scale irrigated agriculture, with attention to repair, upgrade, and operations and maintenance of physical infrastructure. The program gives attention to on-farm water management, but does not deal (yet) with any off-farm water resources management or watershed rehabilitation. Similar to the ADB opportunities above, the WB invites USAID to co-fund and collaborate on the review

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 10 smehr Highlight of current activities and the design of next phase activities. Funds can be passed through the existing ARTF.

The team also recommends strong consideration be given to the near-term opportunity to collaborate with the WB through its Irrigation Restoration and Development Project (IRDP).

This $148 million project operates through on-budget support to MEW and focuses on upstream and downstream linkages involving aspects of water resources and watershed management, disaster risk reduction, improved capture and storage of surface water, and rehabilitation of large-scale irrigation infrastructure. An upcoming mid-term review will help re-focus the program and set the stage for some significant expansion of irrigation lands and, importantly, flood control/protection, and some badly needed hydro-met improvements and modelling. The project can accept co-financing through the ARTF.

Objectives will need to be context-specific and so there will not be a single strategy or approach applicable to all sites. Watershed rehabilitation will not, for example, be applicable in all sites.

Where there is a demonstrable linkage (e.g., likely in the north) with watershed rehabilitation – or at least, improved watershed management practices – then USAID should certainly invest in supporting MAIL’s expressed interests in this regard. The aim will be to assist Afghanistan to understand that the beginning of positive change today can produce dividends in the future, and in some cases that change may take several years or even decades. USDA-led programs have already shown that positive improvements with watershed treatments are certainly possible.

2. Purpose, Scope, and Methodology

The USAID/Afghanistan Office of Agriculture (OAG) requested technical assistance from the Bureau for Economic Growth, Education, and Environment’s Water Office (E3/W) to provide strategic and programmatic recommendations for the development of an Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management (IAWM) Program.

E3/W fielded a TDY team for three weeks in June 2014 comprised of Steve Kovach (irrigation specialist), Richard Volk (water resources management specialist), and Chris Kosnik (E3/W Office Director and sustainable agriculture/natural resource management specialist). See Annex 1 for short bios of TDY team members. The TDY team was informed by a comprehensive literature review completed immediately prior to the team’s visit to Afghanistan by USAID colleagues in OAPA, OAG, and BFS4.

During their TDY, team members interviewed officials from key institutions working on irrigation and water management including: the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL); the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW); the World Bank (WB); and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The team benefitted from extensive dialogue with OAG staff responsible for managing the various ongoing agriculture and water related activities in the country. Finally, the team conducted post-TDY interviews with USG colleagues having

4 Report: USAID Afghanistan Irrigation and Watershed Program Assessment. May 2014 https://docs.google.com/a/usaid.gov/document/d/1VSP5nFvhH4YhyNYo1XiW8hHziYv8249od26fFrsWMPQ/edit

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 11 https://docs.google.com/a/usaid.gov/document/d/1VSP5nFvhH4YhyNYo1XiW8hHziYv8249od26fFrsWMPQ/edit extensive experience in Afghanistan, including staff from USDA, USGS, and the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The TDY team was asked to provide recommendations on both strategic and programmatic elements for a potential new set of activities related to irrigation, agriculture, and watershed management. Strategic objectives include: (1) advancing the Mission’s objectives in agriculture;5 (2) assessing trade-offs between economic growth and equity and between short-term impact and long-term sustainability; and (3) revenue and food security enhancement at the household level. Programmatic objectives include: (1) balance between on-farm and upstream investments in watershed rehabilitation based upon (a) recommendations for allocating resources between OFWM and upstream investments, and (b) taking into consideration other donors’ current and planned IWM institution building programs in MAIL, MEW and elsewhere; (2) cost effectiveness (e.g., rehabilitation of existing infrastructure versus investment in new infrastructure); (3) institutional/governance issues from the Ministerial to the District and community levels; and (4) complementarity with other programs (see Annex 2 which highlights related donor programs). The overall objective of a new IAWM program – and the focus of this report – is to increase the profitability and sustainability of farming systems, both irrigated and rain-fed.

3. Introduction

3.1 The agricultural economy

Agriculture is considered the backbone of the Afghanistan economy. It is the most important source of income for nearly one-third of households, and 40 percent of the total labor force is employed in the sector. Irrigated land is critical to the livelihoods of 38 percent of households, while another 17 percent own rain-fed agricultural land. In years with good rainfall, agriculture contributes as much as 50 percent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), although in 2011 the sector contributed just 27 percent to GDP.6

The sector’s contribution to economic growth is unreliable and hampered by multiple challenges.

Less than 12 percent of the land is arable, and large shares of land are left uncultivated, including 20 percent of irrigated land and as much as 37 percent of rain-fed land.7 This is mainly due to the lack of water, but also related to soil infertility as a result of poor land and water resources management.

Afghanistan receives an average annual precipitation of just 327 mm, with wide geographic variation.8 Moreover, the country appears to be increasingly vulnerable to recurrent drought that can result in major agricultural disruption. Prolonged drought in 2008 put over 9 million Afghans at risk of acute food shortage.

5 Specifically, two of the three objectives contained in the USAID/Afghanistan Water Sector Strategy: Water Regulatory Framework Strengthened and Enforced; and Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture Increased.

6 ADB Technical Assistance Note: Preparing the Water Resources Development Program. 2008. P. 3 7 The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for 2011-2012. Central Statistics Organization, GIRoA. 2014.

8 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 12 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM

Wheat is the primary farm produce, although maize, rice, and potatoes are other staple crops produced in significant quantity. Tomatoes from garden plots, plus grapes, other fruits, and nuts, are also commonly grown. Livestock products represent an important component of household consumption and an important income source. The Livestock Census of 2002-03 indicated a decline in the national stock of cattle, while herds of small ruminants, especially sheep, showed significant increases.9

3.2 Afghanistan land and water resources and projected climate impacts

Reliable data on Afghanistan’s land and water resources since the late 1970s are sparse. A further complication is that different researchers and government agencies have provided a range of estimates regarding both existing lands and infrastructure, and the potential for expansion of irrigated lands. This report does not attempt to reconcile the varying estimates, but only to cite, where appropriate, the source of data in making the observation or point at-hand. It is beyond the TDY team’s ability to reconcile varying estimates. The fact that they exist with such disparity suggests the underlying problem of poor data and information quality for which USAID should help to address.

Nevertheless, recent efforts have been made to pull together existing data to assess overall supply and demand balance, and the potential for irrigation expansion in each of the five major river basins. With certain necessary assumptions (related to average annual precipitation, average crop water requirements per ha, and pass-through flows to neighboring riparian countries), a picture emerges regarding the country’s present state of water resources available for irrigation.

According to a draft report currently under review by FAO and MEW, there were 3.79 million ha of land under irrigation in 2013, of which 2.65 million ha were intensively irrigated (1-2 crops per year) and 1.14 million ha only marginally irrigated. With an additional 0.70 million ha of potential irrigation expansion, and 3.78 million ha under rain-fed agriculture, Afghanistan has

8.27 million ha of potentially productive agricultural land. However, unless improvements are made to rehabilitate or upgrade irrigation infrastructure, to increase capture and storage of water, and to improve the productivity of on-farm water, only some 2.52 million ha of land can be optimized for irrigation at present, and only 3.22 million ha would be potentially irrigable in the future. 10

The same draft report concludes that only the Panj-Amu River Basin (PARB) and the Kabul River Basin (KRB) have potential for expansion of irrigable land, with 450,000 ha and 250,000 ha respectively. The analysis of this study requires further consideration, because, as mentioned in Section 5.4 (Recommendations), it appears that land for potential new irrigation development exists in every river basin. One example is the 70,000 ha that will be added to the existing irrigation area in Hari Rud River basin after completion of the Salam Dam. The TDY team concludes that all five basins have potential for improved agricultural productivity through

9 The National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for 2011-2012. Central Statistics Organization, GIRoA. 2014.

10 Klemm, W. Afghanistan Agriculture Sector Review: Land and Water Resources Assessment. In draft, October 2013.

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 13 improvements to storage, conveyance, and productive use of on-farm water. Afghanistan has one of the lowest rates of per capita water storage in the world; 100 m3 per capita compared with 6,000 m3 in the U.S.

To re-emphasize, the above numbers related to available water and irrigable land are estimates based upon assumptions. Afghanistan is an arid country with recurring cycles of drought.

Precipitation varies geographically, from 75 mm per year in the Southwest to 1,170 mm in the Northeast.11 For most of the remainder of the country, precipitation varies from 200-400 mm.

Precipitation also varies temporally, with most falling in the winter-spring months (November to May), resulting in both seasonal flooding and insufficient soil moisture during the summer months for wide swaths of rain-fed agriculture.

A predicted worsening of climatic conditions in Afghanistan will continue to have a negative impact on socio-economic development, creating stress for all vulnerable groups, but especially for those involved in agriculture and livestock. Climate modelling predictions indicate a future of increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and faster snow melt.12 Increased soil evaporation, reduced river flows in the summer months from earlier snow melt, and less frequent rain during peak cultivation seasons will have negative impacts on agricultural productivity and crop choice availability. Crop failure due to water shortages and the amount of potentially productive land left uncultivated will likely increase.

The analysis indicates that water-intensive staple crops will become less attractive to farmers, with a likely increase in the attractiveness of those that are more drought-hardy, including opium poppy. By 2060, large parts of the agricultural economy are likely to have become marginal without significant investment in water storage, management, and irrigation.13

3.3 The irrigation sector

Irrigated agriculture in Afghanistan goes back more than 4,500 years ago with ancient settlements near Kandahar.14 Today, more than half of the irrigated land lies north of the main Hindu Kush range in the drainage systems of the Amu Darya River. Much of the remaining irrigated land lies in the river basins draining southwest, west, and southeast from the central massif, with the most significant lands located in the Helmand River Basin. Although estimates vary, it is thought that about 3.3 million ha (five percent of the total land area) is irrigated and regularly cropped, while 4.5 million ha (seven percent) is rain-fed and is cropped opportunistically, depending on precipitation

Irrigation uses 95 percent of Afghanistan’s developed water supply and there are five principal system types. These include: modern surface systems; traditional surface systems; and those supplied by springs; karezes (underground canals); and wells. The traditional systems, with

11 ADB. Technical Assistance Report, Project 42091. Preparing the Water Resources Development Project. April 2008.

12 DFID. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan. CNTR-08 8507. No date.

13 Ibid.

14 Needs Assessment on Soil and Water in Afghanistan. Future Harvest Consortium to Rebuild 14Agriculture in Afghanistan. Coordinated by ICARDA. Aleppo, Syria. September 2002.

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 14 intakes from rivers and streams, comprise more than 80 percent of the total, whereas the modern systems comprise some 10 percent of the total. It is reported that, altogether, there are more than 18,000 irrigation systems in the country.15 While the international norm for irrigation efficiency is in the range of 40-60 percent, Afghanistan’s national average is said to be at or below 25 percent. Both traditional and modern systems have suffered extensively during the past 30 years of conflict, and continue their decline through inadequate maintenance.

The modern irrigation schemes generally exist on publicly owned lands and are supplied by water released from large dams built for irrigation purpose. Most of these were funded by donors during the past 50 years, and range in size from 10,000 ha to as large as 350,000 ha.16 They generally feature machine-dug canals and concrete control structures. The traditional systems, in contrast, are generally hand dug, contain no engineered elements, and feature only earthen canals and control structures. They range in size from a few hectares in high mountain valleys to thousands of hectares in the larger, lowland provinces. Most of the traditional irrigation systems have been damaged and are either partly or wholly in disrepair. It is reported that drilled wells for augmenting the water supply to traditional systems are becoming more common. Maintenance of traditional systems is the responsibility of local users themselves, headed by a mirab, or watermaster, who collects fees and oversees all operations.

The TDY team did not come across any reports describing the pros/cons of alternatives or any specific recommendations regarding the appropriate governance structures moving forward. The team concurs with those who feel that it is most appropriate to build upon the existing community governance structures and thus not attempt to replace or diminish the authority of the mirabs in any way. The assumption, however, is that there needs to be a strengthened focus and responsibility related to upstream practices (whether with capture, storage, and conveyance and/or watershed rehabilitation) and that the government’s identification of Water User Associations for this purpose is something that USAID should consider for support depending on context and stakeholders desire. This will require more careful analysis by the contractor, and we should not attempt to make any concrete decisions on governance options at this time.

3.4 The enabling context

Two ministries share the primary responsibilities for irrigation and water resources development and management: MAIL and MEW. The 2009 Water Law specifies their respective roles: MEW is responsible for river basin planning, river bank erosion control, the operation of dams, and the primary canals that deliver water to irrigation systems. MAIL, on the other hand, is responsible for the secondary and tertiary channels or canals within the irrigation systems, plus the management of natural resources in the catchment area, including forests, rangelands, and protected areas. Within MAIL, the General Directorate of Irrigation (GDI) and the General Directorate of Natural Resource Management (GDNRM) carry out these two respective functions. At the provincial and district levels, the DAILs carry out the decentralized work of MAIL, and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) has responsibility for community engagement through the nascent Community Development Councils. MRRD

15 Communication with General Directorate of Irrigation, MAIL.

16 ADB. Preparing the Water Resources Development Investment Project, Draft Final Report, Volume II. ADB TA No. 7088-AFG. September 2009.

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 15 thus potentially plays an important role to assist governance reform of irrigation water management.

The 2009 Water Law was followed by a National Water Policy and Water Sector Strategy. The Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) and National Priority Programs (NPPs) elaborate further on the GIRoA commitments to and priorities for the agriculture and water resource development sectors.17

3.5 Donor investments and other international organizations

This section briefly highlights some of the major programs of donors and other organizations currently most active in irrigation and agricultural water management in the country. Further details about these and other programs can be found in Annex 218.

USAID – Focus: On-Farm Water Management

USAID/Afghanistan has a number of agricultural programs in operation or under development that may have an intersection with a new IAWM Program.19 It is likely that the IAWM Program will operate in the geographic footprint of the Mission’s Regional Agricultural Development Programs (RADPs) providing complementary technical support.

The RADPs focus on improving the productivity and profitability of targeted value chains selected from among the wheat, high-value crop, and livestock sectors. Additional focus is on training and mentoring of farmers and agribusinesses in the use of appropriate OFWM technologies. The AAEP is implemented through a consortium of U.S. Land Grant Universities, including the University of California at Davis, Purdue University, Washington State University, and University of Maryland. Each of the USAID programs collaborates with MAIL and DAIL on implementation.

World Bank -- Focus: On-Farm Water Management

On-Farm Water Management Program has worked to establish 19 irrigation and agronomic demonstration sites for farmers, plus laser land leveling on 103 farms covering an area of 78 ha of land. OFWM focus also includes rehabilitation of irrigation systems and the establishment of 175 Irrigation Associations. OFWM program areas include Northern-Central, Eastern, Western, and Southern Afghanistan. The overall objective is to increase OFWM and productivity, plus institutional and capacity strengthening for the Irrigation Directorate of MAIL.

17 More details on the ANDS, NPPs, and their relation to the USAID/Afghanistan Water Sector Strategy are contained in Appendix 1A of the afore-mentioned report: USAID Afghanistan Irrigation and Watershed Program Assessment. May 2014.

18 Annex 2: https://docs.google.com/a/usaid.gov/file/d/0B6O4CMIoxm5kVlRMdE4wSG1NUFE/edit 19 Programs include four Regional Agricultural Development Programs (RADPs), the Afghan Agricultural Extension Program (AAEP), Agricultural Development Fund (ADF), Commercial Horticulture and Agricultural Marketing Program (CHAMP) Incentives Driving Economic Alternatives for the North, East & West (IDEA-NEW), Improving Livelihoods and governance through Natural Resource Management (ILG-NRM)

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 16 https://docs.google.com/a/usaid.gov/file/d/0B6O4CMIoxm5kVlRMdE4wSG1NUFE/edit

Irrigation Restoration and Development Program focuses on the rehabilitation of irrigation systems, and includes construction of small, multi-purpose dams, the establishment of hydro-meteorological facilities and services, and technical assistance for project management and capacity building for MEW.

Water for Peace: Watershed Rehabilitation is implemented by Catholic Relief Services in 18 villages in Herat, Ghor and Badghis Provinces. The project undertakes watershed rehabilitation, rangeland management, drip irrigation and other technologies to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of rural water supply.

Asian Development Bank

Western Basins Water Resources Management Project focuses on water resources management in Western Afghanistan’s Hari-Rud River Basin, including repair and upgrade of irrigation infrastructure and irrigation service delivery, agriculture and livelihood services, and capacity strengthening of the key implementing partner, MEW.

Community-based Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Project works in Bahlan, Ghor, and Samangan Provinces in Northern Afghanistan. The goal of the program is to increase agricultural productivity by providing improved irrigation infrastructure for farmers and rehabilitation of 120 small-scale irrigation systems.

Water Resources Development Investment Program supports water resources and agriculture development via medium-scale water investments, including flood control in the Northern basins and Nangahar Valley. Funds from DFID have supported the Helmand River Basin Master Plan.

The Multi-Financing Facility (MFF) second tranche of the WRDIP has gone to support major repair and upgrade of infrastructure related to the Shahrawan and Archi canals of the Lower Kokcha Irrigation Project in northern Afghanistan.

Food and Agriculture Organization

Irrigation Restoration & Development Project funded by World Bank/ARTF/GIRoA in 32 provinces with the key implementing partner, MEW. The project aims to address key constraints to efficient and reliable delivery of water to farmers and other water users without exceeding historical water rights or affecting downstream users.

Program for Improvement of Irrigation Systems in Kabul, Bamyan, and Kapisa Provinces. The goal of these activities is to expand irrigation coverage with reliable and adequate water supply through improved irrigation facilities, while undertaking targeted training to increase agricultural production and water use efficiency. Japan/JICA is the principal funder and the implementing partner is MEW.

Capacity Development of the Irrigation Department of MAIL. The objectives of this activity include: institutional strengthening, policy reform, and technical assistance to the Irrigation Directorate to design and implement pilot projects related to OFWM and improved farm production through infrastructure rehabilitation and the adoption of new OFWM practices.

Irrigation, Agriculture, and Watershed Management page 17

Japan/JICA is the principal funder and the implementing partner is the Irrigation Directorate at central and provincial levels.

4. Needs and Opportunities for More Productive Use of Agricultural Water.

(The following documents are additional resources on this topic.)

The USAID Water and Development Strategy Technical Note, titled “Agricultural

Water Management”, Version 1.0, July 2014 (Annex 3A20).

Afghanistan-Pakistan-United States Trilateral Watershed Rehabilitation and Irrigation Technology Program, Final Report, March 30, 2014 (Annex 3B21).

4.1 Watershed rehabilitation

A highly eroding watershed can quickly undermine water storage and distribution systems, and watershed restoration efforts should be started before significant investments are made in the repair, upgrade, or construction of new infrastructure. Afghanistan today has less than 50 percent of pre-war forest-cover remaining and 99 percent of the country’s landscape is degraded, with much of it severely eroded. The free-ranging livestock of nomadic pastoralists, together with the uncontrolled collection of wood for home cooking and heating fuel, are largely to blame for the ongoing degradation of upper catchments. According to MAIL’s General Directorate for Natural Resources Management, 47 percent of the total land area is classified as upper catchment, and there are currently no donors providing support to the Ministry on this critical component of sustainable agriculture.

Prior to the USAID Irrigation and Watershed Management Program (IWMP), a work plan (Annex 3C22) was developed in support of Objective 1.3 (rehabilitate watersheds and improve irrigation infrastructure) of the USG Agriculture Assistance Strategy for Afghanistan. The work plan was developed by USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), and Agricultural Research Service (ARS) with Colorado State University in order to support MAIL to establish a sustained capacity to plan, conduct, and manage a program to rehabilitate watersheds through erosion control, reforestation and re-vegetation activities, infrastructure repair, and training in order to increase the availability of water for agriculture. Due to various factors, the work plan was not implemented. The TDY Team believes that the work plan remains largely valid and should be drawn upon in the design of a new IAWM Program.

Degraded catchments increase runoff, sedimentation, and flooding. They decrease the availability and quality of both surface and groundwater. Where soils are washed away, infertile

20 Annex 3A https://docs.google.com/a/usaid.gov/document/d/1zWCMxe9_uJ_LDQZCIVPnZtIGnC_v6kqyFD-hpvf76j4/edit# 21 Annex 3B…