STRI Sponsored Projects - Fiscal Year 2020-2022.pdf
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- Solicitation number
- HDTRA1-22-S-0004
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Defense Threat Reduction Agency
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This document summarizes research projects funded under the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Strategic Trends Research Initiative from fiscal years 2020 through 2022. It identifies over 60 analytic research reports conducted on topics related to strategic competition with China and Russia, North Korean and Iranian nuclear and missile threats, escalation dynamics, and strengthening alliances. Key areas of research include Chinese military modernization and potential conflict over Taiwan, Russia's posture in the Middle East, and tabletop exercises on integrated deterrence in East Asia. The related federal contract opportunity solicits proposals from public and private research institutions to deliver additional operationally relevant reports to characterize the future security environment and guide DoD understanding through fiscal year 2026. It prioritizes strategic dialogues, studies, and tabletop exercises informing recommendations for DTRA, DoD and other USG agencies to address identified challenges in cooperation with partners.
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Strategic Trends Research Initiative (STRI) Sponsored Projects: Fiscal Year 2020-2022
(Current as of March 15, 2022)
UNCLASSIFIED; Approved for Public Release
Title Contractor / Principal Investigator
Status / Year Initiated
STUDIES
China and Russia
Scenarios to Understand the 2025 to 2030 Threat Environment in an Era of Great Power Competition
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Brannen)
Complete (2020)
Countering Emerging Russian and Chinese Hypersonic Threats
Hudson Institute (Weitz) Complete (2020)
Influence and Escalation: Implications of Chinese and Russian Influence Operations for Crisis Management Scenarios
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Hersman)
Complete (2020)
The Evolving Sino-Russian Relationship in the Indo-Pacific and the Implications for the US Deterrence and Nonproliferation Missions
Atlantic Council (Sanders) Current (2021)
China
Conventional-Nuclear Entanglement in the PLA Rocket Force National Defense University (Saunders / Logan)
Complete (2020)
Then What? Assessing the Strategic Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
Georgetown University (Talmadge / Rittenhouse Green)
Complete (2020)
Chinese Conceptions of Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk Reduction: Risks, Opportunities and Second Order Effects of US-China Arms Control
Independent Consultant (Kim) Complete (2020)
China as a Dynamic Strategic Competitor: Assessing Potential Trajectories of China’s Military Modernization
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Bianchi)
Complete (2020)
Deterring Chinese Strategic Attack Atlantic Council (Kroenig) Complete (2021)
Imagining Armageddon: A FICINT approach to China-US Nuclear Competition
BluePath Labs LLC (Ju) Complete (2021)
The PLA Strategic Support Force, Artificial Intelligence, and Implications for Chinese WMD Strategies and Operations in the Indo-Pacific
National Defense University (Epstein / Nelson)
Current (2021)
Going Big Early? Examining China’s Incentives to Strike First The Marathon Initiative (Colby) Current (2021)
Operationalizing Nuclear-Conventional Integration in the Taiwan Strait
Atlantic Council (Kroenig) Current (2022)
Understanding the Implications of a Successful Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (Input to Dialogue)
Pacific Forum (Cossa) Current (2022)
Escalation Management in a War to Defend Taiwan Center for New American Security (Pettyjohn)
Current (2022)
Escalation Dynamics of Potential Future US-PRC Indo-Pacific Strategic Crises: The Role of India
National Defense University (Anderson)
Current (2022)
Russia
Implications of Russia’s Posture and Alliance Network in the Middle East for US Strategy and Interests
Middlebury Institute for International Studies (Kane)
Complete (2020)
Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for US Strategy and Operations
Middlebury Institute for International Studies (Kane)
Current (2021)
Assessing Russian State Capacity to Develop and Deploy Advanced Military Technology
Center for New American Security (Kendall-Taylor)
Current (2021)
North Korea
Preventing Strategic Deterrence Failure in Korea Atlantic Council (Garlauskas) Complete (2021)
North Korean Nuclear Command and Control: Strategic Choices and Implications for the United States
National Defense University (Bernstein / Smith)
Current (2021)
Iran/Middle East
Countering Iranian Use of Emerging Weapons of Mass Destruction Threats
Center for New American Security (Wasser)
Complete (2021)
The Military Consequences of Iranian Nuclear Proliferation:
Implications for US War Planners, Warfighters, and Alliance Managers
Dartmouth College (Press / Lieber) Current (2021)
Nuclear-Armed Iran: Scenarios and Implications Middlebury Institute for International Studies (Izewicz)
Current (2021)
Implications of Strategic Competition for Strategic Capability Proliferation in the Middle East
Middlebury Institute for International Studies (Stewart)
Current (2021)
Nuclear Deterrence (Trans-Regional)
The Implications of Multi-Factor Nuclear Deterrence for Escalation Risk in the Future Security Environment
University of Cincinnati (Rittenhouse Green / Talmadge)
Current (2022)
Integrated Deterrence of Limited Adversary Nuclear Use in Simultaneous East Asian Conflicts
Atlantic Council (Garlauskas) Current (2022)
Alternative Futures for U.S. Extended Deterrence: Navigating an Old Mission in a New Competitive Environment
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Jones)
Current (2022)
Arms Control (Trans-Regional)
Scoping Technology Requirements for Verifying Limits on Hypersonic Weapons
Sandia National Laboratories (Forden)
Complete (2021)
Engaging Allies and Partners
Making the National Defense Strategy Second Line of Effort a Reality: Realizing the Contact and Blunt Layers with Allies and Partners in Asia and Europe
The Marathon Initiative (Colby) Complete (2020)
Sharing the Load: Developing Better Strategies for Burden Sharing
The Marathon Initiative (Colby) Current (2021)
TABLETOP EXERCISES
Conventional-Nuclear Integration Tabletop Exercise Institute for Defense Analyses (Warden / Chambers)
Current; Second Year (2020)
Great Power Strategic Path Exercise/Game Telemus Group (Martinage / Thomas) Current; Second Year (2020)
Tabletop Exercises on Integrated Deterrence of Adversary Limited Nuclear Use in East Asia
Atlantic Council (Garlauskas) Current (2022)
STRATEGIC (UNOFFICIAL) DIALOGUES (* = Track 1.5)
Bilateral Dialogues with Close Indo-Pacific Allies
US-Japan Dialogue on Post-INF Alliance Strategy* Center for Strategic and International Studies (Karako)
Complete (2021)
US-ROK Strategic Dialogue* (Military Modernization) Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Montgomery)
Complete (2020)
US-ROK Strategic Dialogue: Recalibrating Deterrence Against an Evolving DPRK Nuclear Threat
Henry L Stimson Center (Town) Current (2021)
US-Australia Dialogue* (Emerging Technology, Deterrence, and Strategic Stability)
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Schaus)
Current; Second Year (2020)
Bilateral Dialogues (Southeast and East Asia)
Strengthening the US-Thailand Alliance: Strategic Outlooks, Emerging Technology Implications, and Threat Network Challenges
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Poling)
Complete (2020)
Strengthening the US-Philippines Alliance: Strategic Outlooks, Grey Zone Strategies, and Threat Network Challenges
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Poling)
Complete (2020)
US-Vietnam Security Dialogue Pacific Forum (Ordaniel) Current; Second Year (2020)
US-Indonesia Security Dialogue Pacific Forum (Ordaniel) Current; Second Year (2020)
US-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue Pacific Forum (Cossa) Current; Second Year (2020)
US-Taiwan Tabletop Exercise and Dialogue on Countering PLA Invasion of Taiwan*
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Lin / Jensen)
Current (2022)
Bilateral Dialogues (South Asia)
Great Power Competition Dialogue with India's New Strategic Elite
Henry L Stimson Center (Threlkeld) Current; Second Year (2020)
US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue: Escalation, Emerging Capabilities, & Risk Reduction
Sandia National Laboratories (Haegeland / Reddie)
Current (2021)
Multilateral Dialogues (Indo-Pacific)
Meeting China’s Military Challenge: Identifying Collective Responses Among US Allies and Security Partners in the Indo-Pacific Region* (India, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Philippines, and Vietnam)
National Bureau of Asian Research (Gill)
Current; Second Year (2020)
Pacific Islands Strategic Dialogue* National Bureau of Asian Research (Herlevi)
Current (2021)
US-Japan-ROK Strategic Dialogue* (Deterrence and Escalation)
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Green / Cha)
Current (2021)
US-Australia-Japan Strategic Dialogue on Great Power Competition
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Mahnken)
Current (2021)
Bridging Asian and European Perspectives on Deterrence:
Establishing a Strategic Dialogue Among US Allies on Extended Deterrence in Context of a Rising China* (US- Japan-ROK-NATO)
Atlantic Council (Garlauskas) Current (2022)
Taiwan and Miyako Straits Strategic Trialogue (US-Taiwan- Japan)
Foreign Policy Research Institute (deLisle)
Current (2022)
Trilateral Dialogue on Emerging Threats and Strategic Stability in South Asia and the Indian Ocean* (US-Australia- India)
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Schaus)
Current (2022)
The US-Australia-Philippines Security Triangle: Enhancing Strategic Dialogue, Shared Threat Perceptions, and Defense Cooperation
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Poling)
Current (2022)
US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Maritime Security Dialogue:
Strengthening Deterrence and Defense in the East and South China Seas
Pacific Forum (Ordaniel) Current (2022)
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