STRI Industry Day Slides_Q1FY24_20231012.pdf

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DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY

October 12, 2023 Strategic Trends Office (SI-ST)

UNCLASSIFIED—APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

UNCLASSIFIED—APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

STRI Research Topic Information Session

Virtual Etiquette

General

• Camera/video use when speaking is optional but preferred

• Keep chat box open for notifications and questions

• Participant microphones will be muted except during Q&A segments

• If you get disconnected, simply rejoin (no need to leave a message in chat)

Asking Questions

• Speakers will answer questions at specific points in the presentation

• Use the “raise your hand” feature or post a question in the chat box

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Agenda

• Welcome/introductions

• Short DTRA overview

• SI-ST and STRI overview

• Research interests and thrusts discussion

• Eligibility, submission process, and awards

• White paper technical evaluation process and criteria

• General Q&A

This “industry day” serves as a mechanism to share information about DTRA Strategic Trends’ FY24 applied research requirements and specific topics of interest as outlined in HDTRA1-22-S-0004 BAA and Amendment 7 and the associated Government Call. The submission process and related requirements will also be explained.

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DTRA OVERVIEW

Defense Threat Reduction Agency

DTRA provides cross-cutting solutions to enable the DoD, the United States Government, and international partners to DETER strategic attack against the United States and its allies; PREVENT, reduce, and counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and emerging threats; and PREVAIL against WMD-armed adversaries in crisis and conflict.

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Strategic Priorities and Core Functions

Aligned to the National Defense Strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review, and other DoD strategic documents, DTRA plans, programs, and executes operations, activities, and initiatives in pursuit of DTRA’s strategic priorities across five core functions

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Director’s Initiatives

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To address pressing problems requiring special attention, Director Hersman has commenced four Agency-wide strategic initiatives:

Strengthen future arms control

Prepare for WMD crisis events

Adapt to the information environment

Build the workforce of the future

SI-ST AND STRI OVERVIEW

Strategic Trends Office

Strategic Trends provides understanding and implications for future WMD and emerging technology threats over the next 5–10 years to enable mission adaptation, crisis/conflict response, and critical resource allocation across DTRA, within the U.S. Government, and in collaboration with allies and partners.

• Generate timely, credible, actionable insights into emerging threats within DTRA’s mission space, aligned to national defense priorities

• Analyze WMD threats and emerging technology trends to enable and guide warfighter understanding and increase preparedness and response options

• Sponsor strategic research studies and multi-national international dialogues (Track 1.5 and 2) of relevance to the Agency and the warfighter, focusing on actionable recommendations for senior leaders

• Monitor geopolitical, technological, and environmental factors shaping WMD threat trends

• Conduct workshops and symposia to inform the Agency, CWMD community, and warfighter of the changing nature of the threat environment and to leverage strategic/functional expertise for the Agency

• Develop planning, training, and wargaming scenarios that reflect future WMD challenges

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Strategic Trends Research Initiative (STRI)

Focus: Deliver credible, timely, and actionable research (insights and recommendations) for DTRA, DoD, and allies and partners to inform future operations, activities, and investments and mitigate the impact of emerging WMD threats and/or challenges.

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• Identify emerging WMD-related trends, enabling or disruptive technologies, and challenges associated with the future (5–10 years) battlespace

• Provide clear and concise analysis tailored to a primarily USG audience of mid-level to senior personnel with diverse expertise and a range of interests

• Audience priority order: DTRA, DoD, Interagency, and (as appropriate) allies and partners, research community

• Prioritize year-after-year advancement and cross-pollination across projects

• Encompass primarily UNCLASSIFIED research studies and strategic dialogues

STRI Enduring Characteristics

• Promote bipartisan, intellectually honest endeavors to achieve results with lasting impact

• Ensure balanced participation in terms of ideology, political affiliation, gender, orientation, ethnicity, religion

• Balance current national and defense priorities with an ever-evolving and uncharacterized future

• Balance geopolitical issues and technical issues for a robust understanding of WMD-related threats and emerging technology

• Foster integration between researchers to allow collaboration and create a “sum greater than its parts”

• Embrace innovative approaches to solving problems and achieving results

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STRI Enduring Characteristics (cont’d)

• Curate relationships with key stakeholders to further enhance the portfolio’s impacts across the USG and with allies and partners

• Promote transparency and informed discourse on WMD-related topics by widely disseminating reports to decision-makers in U.S., allied, and partner governments

• Encourage the development of “new leaders” in the CWMD community through opportunities to research WMD topics of strategic interest

• Cultivate a deep bench of available researchers to promote a diverse, integrated cadre of CWMD community leaders

• Ensure research insights and recommendations are shared broadly and communicated directly to those adapting and responding to future threats

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RESEARCH INTEREST AND THRUSTS

STRI Thrust Areas

NOTE: Please identify the thrust that aligns best to your proposed project; submit to one thrust ONLY.

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Thrust Area 1:

WMD-relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 strategic dialogues

Thrust Area 2:

WMD-relevant research studies to characterize the future battlespace

Methodologies

• Tabletop exercises no longer comprise a separate thrust area, but they can be included as a methodology/approach in study and dialogue projects.

• DTRA will not prioritize projects that feature one methodology over another; evaluations will be based on fit for problem and research objective.

• Regardless of methods and objectives, focus should be 5–10 years in the future.

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Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues (Description)

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Definitions Track 1.5 and Track 2 Dialogue Description: Unofficial, bilateral, or multilateral meetings that provide an opportunity for American experts to discuss important and sometimes sensitive strategic issues with foreign counterparts in a private, open environment outside of official diplomatic channels (Track 1)

Track Environment Official Government Participation

Non-Government/ Expert Participation

1 Official Yes No

1.5 Unofficial Yes (in private capacities) Yes

2 Unofficial No, but can include a limited number of observers Yes

Thrust Area 1: Dialogues (Description) (cont’d)

• Meetings must be international in scope.

• Expert roundtables or working groups that involve non-U.S. participants may not always meet the STRI definition of a dialogue.

• Consider Thrust Area 2 for projects intended to elicit feedback on draft analytic products.

• Dialogues must include an appropriate number of officials (seek balance and parity).

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Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues (Priorities)

• Defense and military-relevant challenges related to China, Russia, North Korea, and/or Iran

• S&T research relevant to WMD/non-traditional CBRN threats

• Measures to avoid/shape WMD use and conflict termination after WMD have been employed

• Extended and integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and/or Europe

• Future opportunities for WMD-related arms control initiatives

• COAs for coordinated deterrence/defense against potential WMD threats or use in a Taiwan conflict

• Methods to enable the United States and allies/partners to prevail in a range of Indo-Pacific contingencies across multiple domains beyond a conflict involving Taiwan

• Measures to improve cooperation on deterrence and counter-WMD collaboration with/between

U.S. allies/partners in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Japan, ROK, India, Taiwan)

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Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues (Priorities) (cont’d)

• Novel paths to address gaps in arms control verification capabilities, confidence-building measures, and international norms (especially related to space, dual-capable nuclear weapons systems, biodefense)

• Options to avert nuclear arms racing in Indo-Pacific

• Trends in Africa and South America that could lead to WMD crisis/conflict

• Opportunities for the United States to collaborate with allies/partners to illuminate future trends related to biotechnology, biosurveillance, advanced missile technology, autonomous systems, space, cyber, and digital technologies and potential impact to countering WMD efforts

• Potential roles of European allies in deterring and responding to crisis/conflict in Indo-Pacific

• New approaches to allied defense cooperation and coordination in multipolar environment to support U.S. extended deterrence alliances in Europe and Indo-Pacific

• Approaches to encouraging deterrence and counter-WMD collaboration with U.S. partners in the Middle East

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Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues (Guidance)

• Must identify/justify proposed countries in each white paper

• DTRA will not dictate participating countries but has key interests in:

• Shared security objectives and/or threat considerations

• Interoperability and desire to work together on defense and military-related issues for maintaining regional stability, enhancing deterrence, reducing WMD threats

• Must include primary, concerted focus on WMD and related topics (address any participant-related obstacles in white paper)

• Discussions of technology transfer should focus on regional stability/security aspects, not economics, trade, or commerce

• Dialogues require substantial coordination with DTRA (and potentially other stakeholders) on research questions, agenda, and participant identification/outreach

• The primary expected output is analysis and recommendations from the dialogue (the dialogue itself is not the primary output)

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Thrust Area 2: WMD-Relevant Research Studies to Characterize the Future Battlespace (5–10 Years from Present) (Priorities)

• China and Russia’s development of strategic capabilities, dissemination/employment systems, or emerging disruptive technology in WMD arena

• Ambiguity and dilemmas for battlespace posed by non-strategic and dual-capable systems

• Emerging technology trends that could impact future arms control initiatives related to space, dual-capable systems, and biodefense

• Possible adversarial intentions/strategies and implications for U.S. strategy and policy related to:

• China’s nuclear modernization

• Iran’s potential nuclear and WMD intentions, posture, doctrine, strategies

• Strategies, impacts, and implications of WMD FMI campaigns in Africa and Southeast

Asia

• Strategies and mechanisms the Iranian government uses to influence domestic and foreign opinion about its nuclear program

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Thrust Area 2: WMD-Relevant Research Studies to Characterize the Future Battlespace (5–10 Years from Present) (Guidance)

• Studies can involve workshops, SME interviews, scenario-based exercises, tabletop exercises, or all of above if integrated.

• Studies that rely extensively on access to SMEs should consider personnel availability due to schedule conflict(s) and offer risk mitigation measures in white paper.

• Study submissions should detail availability/access to information to complete work.

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Additional Considerations

• STRI is not looking for:

• Mining existing data or summarizing insights from the extant literature base (literature reviews can be incorporated into broader analytic efforts)

• Requirements to purchase data subscriptions or tools

• Development of:

• Databases, datasets, manipulation tools

• Software, models, simulations

• Hardware and/or technologies

• Research primarily focused on:

• Economics/commerce issues

• Issues where Interagency (rather than DoD) takes lead

• Other threat domains beyond DTRA’s core WMD mission (focus on nexus)

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Additional Considerations (cont’d)

• Planning and execution of an event

• Projects must incorporate broader analytic activities

• Two-fold output desired: event interactions/discussion and post-event analysis

• Policy recommendations

• We do not prioritize research that is primarily focused on the policy realm

• We will entertain policy recommendations insofar that DTRA has equities (i.e., CWMD-related topics) and normally advocates for changes to policy/guidance through established advisory activities

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Deliverables

All projects have the same core deliverables; additions to this list should be identified as tasks in Statement of Research Work

External Publication:

• DTRA must receive and approve deliverables prior to external publication

• DTRA may publish research on DTRA website

• Researchers must consult SI-ST prior to publishing derivative research products in academic journals, media outlets, or online forums, including websites

• DTRA will notify the researcher of required public release clearance processes

• Public research products must not identify DTRA personnel by name

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Monthly technical and financial progress reports

Communication and Engagement Plan

Briefings: kickoff, midpoint progress reviews, and end of project (outbrief)

Final closeout report Draft and final 12-15 page technical report (not including appendices/TOC/covers)

Corresponding 1-3 page standalone executive summary

ELIGIBILITY, SUBMISSION PROCESS, AND

AWARDS

Organizational Eligibility

Broad Agency Announcement:

• U.S.-based industrial and commercial entities, including small businesses

• U.S.-based, not-for-profit research organizations, including think tanks

• Accredited, degree-granting public and private colleges and universities in the United States

Government Call:

• University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs) (submit sponsor authorization with proposal submission)

• Federally Funded Research & Development Centers (FFRDCs), including U.S. Department of

Energy National Laboratories (submit sponsor authorization with proposal submission)

• U.S. professional military educational institutions, U.S. military laboratories and research centers

• Other federally-affiliated research institutions that are precluded from submitting to a BAA

• Contact dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-Adm@mail.mil with questions or requests for the

Government Call

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mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-Adm@mail.mil

Citizenship Requirements

• Foreign research organizations, including colleges, universities, and think tanks, in U.S. treaty ally countries (NATO members, Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and ROK) are permitted to submit unclassified white papers in response to this BAA provided they meet requirements to receive a USG contract award.

• Because the research is primarily focused on generating insights for DoD/DTRA and USG, foreign research entities are encouraged to collaborate, partner with, or involve U.S.-based institutions or U.S. personnel to conduct research.

• DTRA will only issue a single contract for each individual research project awarded under this BAA. The responsibility for sub-contracting and/or partnering agreements rests with the prime contractor (i.e., recipient of the contract).

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Personnel Requirements Principal Investigator

Limited to:

• U.S. citizens

• U.S. green card holders

• Citizens of U.S.

treaty ally countries Subordinate Team Members

May include non-U.S.

citizens from ally or partner nations

Two Phase Submission Process

Phase I – White Paper submission

• Consists of a cover page, technical concept, and cost estimate (single attachment)

• Shall not exceed 10 pages or 5 MB of storage space

• Send via email; papers uploaded to submission sites will not be considered

• Do not email the same paper to multiple addresses; select one thrust area

• Do not include multiple papers in the same email

• Must be unclassified

Phase II – Proposal submission (after written acceptance of white paper)

• Consists of four attachments: technical proposal, cost proposal, draft Statement of Research Work in provided template (SoRW), and supplemental information

• Shall not exceed 10 MB

• Must be unclassified

BAA and amendments provide full instruction regarding submission guidelines (SAM.gov); Government Call highlights specific requirements for this community

Contact and Submission Emails

Thrust Area 1: Dialogues dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta1@mail.mil Thrust Area 2: Studies dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta2@mail.mil

• Do NOT send the papers to any individual DTRA email addresses or “cc” DTRA personnel on the submissions.

• Refer all questions to the email address below. Do NOT email questions directly to any DTRA personnel or call them for advice.

Administrative correspondence and questions:

dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil

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mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta1@mail.mil mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta2@mail.mil mailto:dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil

Submission Suspense

This DTRA BAA is open-ended, but for priority FY24 fall funding consideration, please submit white paper(s) by 11:59 PM (EDT) Monday, October 23, 2023.

• DTRA accepts submissions on a rolling basis, but utilizes priority review periods

• White papers received after 11:59 PM (EDT) on October 23, 2023 will be evaluated, but not until after evaluation of other timely submissions is complete.

• DTRA will not consider submissions that begin in FY 2025 (start after October 1, 2024) during this review period

• Consult SAM.gov for future amendments

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Award Types

• Contract

• Military Interdepartmental Purchase Request (MIPR)

• Interagency Agreement

Period of Performance and Option Periods

Period of Performance (PoP)

• Base shall not exceed 12 months;

if option periods proposed, total PoP shall not exceed 36 months

• Shorter durations are welcome so long as they can be completed in the proposed timeframe. We appreciate timely research, but all products must also be thorough and credible

Option Periods

• DTRA will consider up to two option periods if proposed, but reserves the right to award contracts without option periods

• All submissions will be evaluated equally whether or not they include option periods. If proposing option periods:

• State what will be accomplished in each

• Explain the need/additional benefit to

Government

• Detail costs associated with each option period

• Deliverables must be submitted at the end of each period (base or option period)

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Multiple Submissions and/or Awards

• There is no limit to how many white papers a single organization or researcher can submit.

However, do not submit the same white paper to more than one thrust area.

• Applicants interested in pursuing a research effort that includes multiple activities that require similar or overlapping analysis should consider proposing a single white paper and, if requested, proposal.

• DTRA reserves the right to request that related white papers involving the same Principal Investigator be combined into a single proposal for funding consideration.

• The number of awards resulting from this BAA will vary from year to year based on mission need and resource availability. There is no minimum or maximum number of awards.

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WHITE PAPER TECHNICAL EVALUATION PROCESS

AND CRITERIA

White Paper Review Process

Review Process:

• Topic-specific Technical Evaluation Panel: Government/Military only

• DTRA web-based collaboration platform will support internal evaluation process

• Feedback will be provided via email in writing

• Requests for additional feedback (including meetings/phone calls) will not be considered

DTRA reserves the right to forgo a technical evaluation IF submission:

• Does not include required information

• Is not formatted properly

• Comprises only capability statements

• Comprises list of potential projects an organization could undertake

• Offers an analytic approach for an unidentified research topic

• Simply restates thrust area or topics

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White Paper Technical Evaluation Criteria

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Baseline Criteria: Additional Criteria:

If one or more not met, paper will be categorized as “unsuccessful”

All must be met to be considered “successful”

• Applicability to DTRA mission (including Director’s Strategic Intent and Strategic Initiatives)

• Applicability to DTRA SI-ST mission

• Potential of research output to provide additional value to DTRA and DoD

• Alignment with proposed research thrust

• Problem statement is well-conceived and informed by an understanding of USG and DoD priorities and strategy

• Proposed technical approach is suitable to address the specified problem

• Qualified organization and proposed PI to perform the research based on evidence of appropriate knowledge, experience, and capabilities

Q&A