STRI_RTIS_Slides_28 APR.pdf

UNCLASSIFIED

Strategic Trends Research Initiative Research Topic Information Session

(“Industry Day”) for HDTRA1-22-S-0004 and Amendment 1

April 28, 2022 Strategic Trends and Effects Department (SI-ST)

UNCLASSIFIED – APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Zoom for Government – Virtual Etiquette

General:

Camera/video use when speaking is optional, but preferred Keep chat box open for notifications and posing questions Participant microphones will be muted except during Q&A segments If you get disconnected, simply rejoin (no need to leave message in chat)

Asking Questions:

Speakers will answer questions at specific points in the presentation Use the “raise your hand” feature or post a question in the chat box If you are not actively asking a question, please mute your microphone Questions posted in the chat box will be answered in the chat box

Introductions

Sponsor: Strategic Integration Directorate, Strategic Trends and Effects Department (SI-ST) Mr. Robert Peters, Department Chief Mr. Donald Wenzlick, Strategic Trends Division Chief (SI-STT) (inbound) Strategic Trends Research Manager Ms. Jennifer Perry, Strategic Trends Research Coordinator and PM/COR for Dialogues Mr. Michael Sims, Program Analyst and PM/COR for Studies and Tabletop Exercises Major Khoi Tran, Assistant PM (Detailed) Ms. Janice Atkinson, Acquisition Administration Support (Contractor) Mr. Glen Ogden, Acquisition Administration Support (Contractor)

Contracts: Acquisition, Contracts, and Logistics Directorate, Contracts Department, Mission Support Contracts Division (AL-ACB)

Ms. Rorri Waters, Contracting Officer Mr. Ohaji Yarborough, Senior Contract Specialist (Contractor) Mr. Roberto Saenz, Senior Contract Specialist (Contractor)

Agenda

This “industry day” serves as a mechanism to share information about DTRA Strategic Trends’ FY22 applied research requirements and specific topics of interest as outlined in HDTRA1-22-S-0004 BAA and Amendment 1 and the associated Government Call. The submission process and related requirements will also be explained.

Welcome/Introductions Short DTRA Overview SI-STT and STRI Overview Research Interests and Thrusts Discussion Eligibility, Submission Process, and Awards White Paper Technical Evaluation Process and Criteria General Q&A

DTRA OVERVIEW

DISCUSSANT: DON WENZLICK

Combat Support Agency

(CSA)

Defense Agency

(DA)

DTRA enables DoD, the USG, and international partners to counter and deter weapons of mass destruction and emerging threats. [2021 Strategy]

The mission of DTRA is to safeguard the United States and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) threats globally. [ DoDD5105.62. “DTRA Charter”]

CSAs “…fulfill combat support or combat service support functions for joint operating forces across the range of military operations, and in support of the Commanders of the Combatant Commands executing military operations.” [DoDD5100.01 Functions of DoD (2010)]

DTRA “...integrates assigned WMD activities and tasks across DoD…” [DoDD2060.02 DoD CWMD Policy (2017)]

Supports ASD(NCB): “…the principal advisor to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense and the USD(AT&L) on nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, and chemical and biological defense…Develop policies, provide advice, and make recommendations on nuclear weapons; chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) medical and non-medical defense; safety and security of chemical and biological agents; safety, surety, security, and safe destruction of the current chemical weapons stockpile; CWMD; nuclear, chemical, and biological (NCB) arms control activities; and related plans and programs.” [DoDD5134.08 (2013, Change2)]

Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)

M/V Cape Ray (2013-14) | Elimination of Syrian chemical weapons

Ebola Support (2014) | Tracking of spread, equipment, and therapeutics (ZMapp) for IA effort

Skripal Response (2018) | U.S. response to use of Fourth Generation Agent in Salisbury, England

COVID-19 Response (2020-) | Provided capability and training used in 46 countries

Syrian CW Use (2012-19) | Monitoring and expertise in support of DoD and IA efforts

DPRK VX Use (2018) | Tracked developments in Kim Chong-nam assassination

ISIS CW Use (2013-17) | Monitoring and expertise in support of DoD and IA efforts

DA

ILY

CR

IS

IS

/C

ON

TI

NG

EN

CY

CWMD Planning & Analysis | Support to CCMDs, including CWMD Coordinating Authority, USSOCOM

CBRN R&D | Full scope research and development on WMD topics and emerging threats

BPC | Worldwide efforts to build allies and partners WMD response capability, understand threats, secure materials, and strengthen CWMD/nonproliferation regimes

Reachback | Expertise and modeling/simulation on WMD threats 24/7, used by all of DoD, IA

Deterrence | Continual effort to ensure U.S. is able to provide credible nuclear deterrent

Elimination & Inspection | Implementation of treaties and progress toward destruction goals

Fukushima Response (2011) | Direct support to Operation Tomodachi

Mission Highlights for DTRA

CT | The Cooperative Threat Reduction Directorate prevents the proliferation or use of weapons of mass destruction by working with partner nations to secure, eliminate, detect and interdict WMD-related systems and materials.

Proliferation Prevention, Biological Threat Reduction, WMD Elimination. CBRN Material Security

NE | The Nuclear Enterprise Directorate provides capabilities to the Department of Defense and interagency stakeholders, allies and partners to ensure the safety, security, reliability and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent force and the countering weapons of mass destruction mission.

Mission Assurance, Nuclear Surety, Nuclear Logistics, Contingency Operations, Nuclear Education

OB | The On-Site Inspection and Building Capacity Directorate enables the Department of Defense, the U.S. Government, and International Partners to counter and deter WMD by conducting Arms Control Treaty Verification and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Building Partner Capacity Activities.

Treaty Support, Interagency Liaison, Building Partner Capacity, Inspections

OI | The Operations and Integration Directorate provides operational, analytical, and security support for CCMD and DTRA missions, in collaboration with FVEY and interagency partners, to achieve strategic outcomes against NDS threats.

Operational Analysis, Operations, CCMD Support Desks, Security

RD | The Research and Development Directorate provides science, technology and capability development investments that maintain the U.S. military’s technological superiority in CWMD & emerging threats, mitigate the risks of technical surprise and respond to the warfighter’s urgent technical requirements.

Chem/Bio Defense Program, Nuclear Technologies, Counter WMD Technologies, Enabling Capabilities, 24/7 Reachback, Modeling & Simulation

SI | The Strategic Integration Directorate shapes DTRA’s response to the challenges and priorities set forth in the National Defense Strategy, focusing the Agency’s operations, activities and investments in a manner that maximizes their cumulative effect in support of our warfighting customers.

Strategy, Threat Anticipation, Threat Prioritization, Planning & CCMD Plans Support, Opportunity Analysis, Comptroller, Program Evaluation

IT | Information Management & Technology Directorate

EI | Equity, Diversity, & Inclusion Office

HR | Human Resources DirectorateAL | Acquisition, Contracts, & Logistics Directorate

ES | Environmental, Safety, and Occupational Health Office IG | Inspector General Office LA | Legislative Affairs Office

“M

IS

SI

ON

” D

IR

EC

TO

RA

TE

S

Organizational Roles within DTRA

SI-STT AND STRI OVERVIEW

Generate operationally relevant, timely, credible, actionable insights into emerging threats within DTRA’s WMD and Emerging Threats mission space. Enable and guide warfighter understanding of the range of military operations in an evolving battlespace.

Activities: Research, Strategy, Trends Analysis, Events, Tabletop Exercises

[Strategic Trends Division, STT]

Department & Division Missions

The Strategic Trends and Effects Department (SI-ST or STED) identifies future challenges for DTRA regarding emerging threats, provides advice regarding mitigation approaches, and assesses the collective effects of DTRA’s operations, activities, and investments (OAIs) within the operating environment.

Two primary responsibilities:

Provide DTRA leadership with independent program evaluation of Agency capabilities and activities to maximize strategic effects and mitigate risk.

Activities: Operational Research and Statistical Analysis, Program Evaluations

[Strategic Effects Division, STE]

Strategic Trends Division (SI-STT)

Warfighting challenges related to WMD and emerging threats Competition below threshold of armed conflict (includes acute competition) Five to 10 years beyond the current fiscal year of execution Alignment to national strategic guidance and DTRA Strategy

Capability/technology focus areas relevant to DTRA’s mission:

Advances in chemical and biological agents

Militarization of space

Advances in missile technology and hypersonic weapons

Advances in manufacturing

Advances in unmanned/ autonomous systems

Advances in non-traditional CBRN delivery systems

Advances in artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML)

Advances in Cyber/ digital technology

Application of directed energy weapons

Advances in nuclear technology

UNCLASSIFIED 12

Strategic Trends Research Initiative (aka “Story”)

Focused on weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, nuclear), emerging threats, and enabling technologies

Provides clear and concise analytic products tailored to a primarily USG audience from midlevel to senior personnel with diverse expertise and a range of interests Priority Order: DTRA, DoD, Interagency, and (as appropriate) allies and partners, research community Prioritizes year-after-year advancement and cross-pollination across projects Encompasses primarily UNCLASSIFIED studies, strategic dialogues, and tabletop exercises (classified work can be undertaken in some circumstances)

Focus: Deliver operationally relevant, credible, timely, and actionable research (insights and recommendations) for DTRA and the Warfighter community

Intent: Help inform future operations, activities, and investments to mitigate/ eliminate future threats/challenges, especially in areas relevant to the DTRA mission

RESEARCH INTERESTS AND

THRUSTS

Thrust Area 1:

WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues

STRI Thrust Areas

Thrust Area 2:

WMD-Relevant Research Studies to Characterize the Future Battlespace

Thrust Area 3:

WMD-Relevant Tabletop Exercises (TTXs)

NOTE – Please identify the thrust that aligns best to your proposed project;

submit to one thrust ONLY

Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues

Thrust 1 FY22 Priorities

• China, Russia, DPRK/Iran (e.g., military/defense-related challenges related to increased/modernized nuclear arsenals, development of CBW, grey-zone activities, emerging disruptive technologies, and cyber and/or space capabilities)

• Extended and integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific or Europe

• Focus on maintaining regional stability and enhancing deterrence

• Bilateral/multilateral engagements with 3+ cooperative allies/partners

• Reduction of WMD and emerging threats with multi-nation solutions

• Inclusion of crisis/conflict-based scenario(s) for WMD-related topics

• Involvement of priority countries currently lacking Track-1 engagement

General Guidance:

At least one session or panel must directly address issues in DTRA’s purview Focus on understanding points of convergence and divergence in viewpoints, identifying obstacles and opportunities for cooperation, and identifying specific activities to undertake Should detail shared security challenges, mutual benefits and impacts, and shared strategic/defense goals between United States and its allies/partners Avoid exclusive focus on policy, economic, commerce, and trade-related topics or topics outside of strategic/defense purview (e.g., illegal fishing)

Track 1.5 / 2 Definition: Unofficial, bilateral, or multilateral meetings that provide an opportunity for American experts to discuss important, and sometimes sensitive, strategic issues with their foreign counterparts in a private, open environment, outside of official diplomatic channels (Track 1)

Thrust Area 1: WMD-Relevant Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues

Track Environment Official Government Participation

Non-Government/ Expert Participation

1 Official Yes No

1.5 Unofficial Yes (in private capacities) Yes

2 Unofficial No Yes

Dialogues require substantial coordination with DTRA SI-STT and other stakeholders as appropriate on the following:

Research questions Agenda Participants (diversity/parity)

Thrust Area 2: WMD-Relevant Research Studies to Characterize the Future Battlespace (5-10 Years from Present)

Thrust 2 FY22 Priorities

• China’s and Russia’s development of strategic capabilities challenging US operations in key strategic regions

• Address intersection of WMD-relevant topics and multi-domain warfare; including emerging disruptive technologies

• Examine integrated deterrence application and challenges to extended deterrence

• Explore limited CBRN uses for non-strategic gains by adversaries

• Examine conditions leading to potential non-strategic nuclear use by adversaries

• Investigate incentives for adversaries to target space-enabled assets and NC2

• Explore conditions for adversarial CBW use for escalation and shaping operations

• Examine prospects and advantages of multilateral alliances in addressing shared strategic challenges (e.g., WMD threats or use)

• Explore adversarial strategies (e.g., by China, Russia, DPRK) to undermine bilateral/ multilateral alliances responding to WMD-related threats

• Investigate impact on regional stability from future chemical or biological threats and response preparedness

Thrust Area 2: WMD-Relevant Research Studies to Characterize the Future Battlespace (5-10 Years from Present)

Country Interests: (1) China, (2) Russia, (3) North Korea/Iran (must consider issues related to global and regional stability)

General Guidance:

Studies can involve workshops, SME interviews, or scenario-based exercises, or all of above if integrated Studies that rely extensively on access to SMEs should be wary of personnel availability due to schedule conflict(s) (offer risk mitigation measures in white paper) Study submissions should detail availability/access to information to complete work Study approach should include analysis and not simply summaries of activities

Remember DTRA is the sponsor:

Studies lacking clear focus on WMD topics will be reduced priority Studies that address nexus with other warfighting domains are acceptable, but should primarily be oriented toward DTRA – NOT agencies with core responsibilities in other areas

Thrust Area 3: WMD-Relevant TTXs

General Guidance:

TTXs should involve DTRA, broader DoD, and CWMD community as appropriate Output is two-fold: event interaction/discussion and ANALYSIS (not event summary)

TTXs supporting a dialogue should be submitted under Thrust Area 1 TTXs supporting a study should be submitted under Thrust Area 2

NOTE: For additional details on dialogues, studies, and TTXs, please read BAA and Amendment 1 in full

Thrust 3 FY22 Priorities

• WMD and WMD-related emerging threat scenarios in the Indo-Pacific or European theaters

• Scenarios that examine the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation before, during, and after a conflict.

• TTXs that consider chemical and biological weapons employment or threat of employment

This program is not interested in…

Mining existing data, or summarizing insights from the extant literature base (literature reviews can be incorporated in broader analytic efforts)

Purchase of data subscriptions or tools Development of:

Databases, datasets, manipulation tools Software, models, simulations, Hardware and/or technologies

Planning and execution of an event:

Projects must incorporate broader analytic activities Two-fold output desired: event interactions/discussion and post-event analysis

Research primarily focused on:

Economics/commerce issues Issues where Interagency (vice DoD) takes lead Other threat domains beyond DTRA’s core WMD mission (focus on nexus)

Policy Recommendations:

We do not prioritize research that is primarily focused on the policy realm We will entertain limited policy recommendations insofar that DTRA has equities in that policy area (i.e. CBRN and WMD topics) and normally advocates for changes to policy/guidance through normal advisory activities

Deliverables

All projects have the same core deliverables; additions to this list should be identified as tasks in Statement of Research Work (report/execsum templates will be provided)

External Publications:

DTRA must receive and approve deliverables prior to external publication Requirement to consult SI-STT prior to publishing findings resulting from the research in any academic journals, media outlets, or online forums, including websites Are not acceptable substitutes for the final technical report DTRA will notify the researcher of any required public release processes

Monthly technical and financial progress reports

Briefings:

kickoff, midpoint progress review, and end of project (outbrief)

Final closeout report

Draft and final 12 to 15-page technical report

(not including appendices/ TOC/covers)

Corresponding 1 to 3-page standalone executive summary

ELIGIBILITY, SUBMISSION PROCESS,

AND AWARDS

DISCUSSANT: RORRI WATERS

Organizational Eligibility

Broad Agency Announcement:

U.S.-based industrial, and commercial entities, including small businesses Accredited, degree granting public and private colleges and universities in the U.S.

U.S.-based, not-for-profit research organizations, including think tanks University Affiliated Research Centers (UARC) unless precluded by contract (submit sponsor authorization) Federally Funded Research & Development Centers (FFRDCs), including U.S.

Department of Energy National Laboratories, unless precluded by contract (submit sponsor authorization)

Foreign research organizations in U.S. treaty ally countries (specifically NATO members, Japan, Australia, and Republic of Korea) provided they meet the requirements to receive a U.S. Government contract award (Non-GOV Only)

Government Call: U.S. professional military educational institutions, U.S. military laboratories and research centers, and other federally-affiliated research institutions that are precluded from submitting to a BAA

Citizenship Requirements

Personnel Requirements

Principal Investigator

Limited to:

• U.S. citizens

• U.S. green card holders

• Citizens of U.S. treaty ally countries (specifically NATO members, Japan, Australia, and Republic of Korea) Subordinate Team Members

May include non-U.S. citizens from ally or partner nations

Two Phase Submission Process

Phase I – White Paper submission

• Consists of a cover page, technical concept, and cost estimate (single attachment)

• Shall not exceed 10 pages or 5 MB of storage space

• Send via email; papers uploaded to submission sites will not be considered

• Do not email the same paper to multiple addresses; select one thrust area

• Do not include multiple papers in the same email

• Must be unclassified

Phase II – Proposal submission (after written acceptance of white paper)

• Consists of four attachments: technical proposal, cost proposal, draft Statement of

Research Work in provided template (SoRW), and supplemental information

• Shall not exceed 10 MB

• Must be unclassified

BAA and amendments provide full instruction regarding submission guidelines;

Government Call highlights unique requirements for this community

Contact and Submission Emails

Thrust Area 1: Dialogues dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta1@mail.mil

Thrust Area 2: Studies dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta2@mail.mil

Thrust Area 3: Tabletop Exercises dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta3@mail.mil

Administrative Correspondence & Questions:

dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil

Dates to Remember

This DTRA BAA is open-ended, but for priority FY22 funding consideration, please bear in mind the following review periods:

Project Type/Thrust Review Begins Strategic Dialogues (Thrust 1) Thursday May 19, 2022 Studies (Thrust 2) Thursday June 9, 2022 Tabletop Exercises (Thrust 3) Thursday June 16, 2022

DTRA will not review any white papers ahead of the specified dates White papers received after 11:59 PM (EST) on the specified dates will be evaluated, but after evaluation of other timely submissions DTRA will not consider submissions that begin FY 2023 (start after

October 1, 2022) during this review period; consult SAM.GOV for future amendments

Award Type and Period of Performance (PoP)

Award Types:

Contracts MIPRs Interagency Orders Grants NO

Project Type PoP Requirement

Studies No more than nine months; no option periods

Strategic Dialogues Each iteration: No more than 12 months Option Periods: Up to two 12 month options (36 months total) Tabletop Exercises

We encourage shorter periods of performance – the goal is to provide timely insights and recommendations !

IF PROPOSED, DTRA will consider option periods for dialogues and tabletop exercises to ensure year-after-year advancement and maximize efficiencies

DTRA reserves the right to award contracts without option periods Study performers are invited to submit white papers for follow-on research once

DTRA has received the draft technical report for the current effort

WHITE PAPER TECHNICAL

EVALUATION PROCESS AND

CRITERIA

White Paper Review Process

Review Process:

Topic-specific Technical Evaluation Panel: SI-ST personnel (Gov/Mil Only) Feedback will be provided via email in writing Requests for additional feedback (including meetings/phone calls) will not be considered

DTRA reserves the right to forgo a technical evaluation, IF submission:

Does not include required information Is not formatted properly Comprises only capability statements Comprises list of potential projects an organization could undertake Offers an analytic approach for a unidentified research topic Simply restates thrust area or topics

White Paper Technical Evaluation Criteria

Baseline Criteria: Additional Criteria:

If one or more not met, paper will be categorized as “unsuccessful”

All must be met to be considered “successful”

Applicability to DTRA mission Applicability to DTRA SI-STT mission Potential of research output to provide additional value to DTRA and DoD

Alignment with proposed research thrust

Problem statement is well-conceived and informed by an understanding of USG and DoD priorities and strategy

Proposed technical approach is suitable to address the specified problem

Qualified organization and the proposed PI to perform the research based on evidence of appropriate knowledge, experience, and capabilities

Q&A