M-DASH BattleCOA Production Ensemble AMA academics 20261015.pdf

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Call 03 M-DASH - Joint All Domain Persistent Adaptive Collaborative Technologies II (JADPACT II)
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Written by GovTribe AI ·

This is a training document describing the BattleCOA (Battle Course of Action) Production Boot Camp, which teaches a methodology for generating military course of action plans using the Transformational Model for Decision Advantage (TM-DA) framework.

The document provides a comprehensive walkthrough of BattleCOA generation using a practical example of F-15E strike aircraft attacking a mobile Command and Control (C2) node. It explains key concepts including BattleEvents (vertices representing military actions), EffectEffectorMatches (pairing desired effects with capable assets), and BattleCOAPaths (alternative courses of action within a single BattleCOA). The methodology requires building complete worldlines for all participants from initial circumstances through final disposition, identifying resource needs and dependencies, accounting for adversary reactions, and adjudicating conflicts between mutually exclusive actions. Critical requirements for valid BattleCOAs include physical possibility (no simultaneous distant locations or impossible physics), tactical soundness, greedy asset utilization, vertex parsimony (avoiding redundant events), exploration of all feasible options, consequence adjudication, and complete worldlines. The document includes detailed graphical examples showing how to construct complex event networks incorporating multiple military platforms (F-35, B-1, KC-46 tanker, E-7 AWACS, EA-37B EW aircraft), supporting functions (SEAD, refueling, intelligence, cyber operations), and decision points including Bomb Damage Assessment and go/no-go calls. Technical appendices present the formal ontology and data structures underpinning the TM-DA framework.

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BattleCOA Production Boot Camp

“No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” – Helmuth von Moltke the Elder (Beep’s generalization: “No plan survives first contact with reality…sometimes the enemy doesn’t have to lift a finger…”)

Exploring the solution space… example: F-15Es attacking a mobile C2 node

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Attack C2 Node

BattleCOA Production Boot Camp

Exploring the solution space… Next example: F-15s attacking a mobile C2 node

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

“Trigger” input for an instance of Generate BattleCOA:

The Principal EffectEffectorMatch – this will be a given in the DASH Battle Simulations:

“afc_battlecab: @vegas, SINATRA DIRECTS, generate BattleCOA to support cyber op…”

“vegas_sl: @vegas_abm_3, generate battlecoa for Gizmo 21, 4xF-1E, target enemy mobile C2 unit, ivo cigar…”

…this is the BattleCOA we will generate here…

New Generate BattleCOA (GBC) Instance: a new “principal” BattleEffect (EffectEffectorMatch), becomes the seed around which GBC builds a BattleCOA

F-15E

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Common (but not only) first thought: worldline solution for the EffectorPack in the Principal EffectEffectorMatch

One of the criteria for a valid BattleCOA:

are the worldlines for participants complete?

BattleCOAs must account for Participant states from what

Is happening in the battle now (InitialCircumstance)… …to some final disposition. Examples:

Return to Base (RTB), follow-on task, or continue mission

In EventSpace diagrams, earlier events are generally to the left , and later events are generally to the right .

However actual temporal ordering is determined by the directionality of temporal edges ( ). Time only “flows” inside the vertices (BattleEvents), and the length of an arrow (edge) does not necessarily correspond to any particular duration of or specific time. When possible, simultaneous events should be roughly vertically aligned.

Fix

C2 node F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit outbound

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Starting a participant worldline: what events must occur immediately before (antecedent) and immediately after (consequent)

Antecedent event: In order to attack the mobile C2 node, Gizmo must “fix” it, i.e., (precisely) locate & identify

Consequent event: The ABM chooses an outbound transit

(withdraw from enemy territory)

The north route (#1) looks like instant death ( ), so without a better idea we’ll consider a direct route (#2) and see if it would be possible to make that happen.

Perhaps if we have time, we’ll also consider a south route (#3).* *In this case, different navigation routes correspond to different BattleCOAPaths (i.e., options within a BattleCOA, however, a physical route through the OE is not always what distinguishes one path from another.

Two mutually exclusive options, i.e., separate BattleCOAPaths within a BattleCOA, could use the same navigation route to the target but involve a different set of participants supporting the primary strikers and a different tactic and play against the target.

New temporal: ordinal edge

Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Building a participant worldline: common heuristic – “target-out” approach

Note: on a GBC EventSpace diagram, the length of temporal edges does not indicate a length of time.

Technically time only flows inside the vertices. The temporal edges only indicate order, not elapsed time.

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

Building a participant worldline: accounting for resource needs (e.g., Aerial Refueling)

Valid worldline for the principle EffectorPack:

Not physically impossible Not tactically invalid

Alternative worldline: bring the tanker along… Not physically impossible Not tactically invalid

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

Building a participant worldline: accounting for hindrances & expedients (threats, environmental obstacles, shortcuts, etc.)…concomitant BattleEvents

Decision Advantage for BattleCOAs:

BattleCOAs are selfish and greedy for assets BattleCOAs are parsimonious with vertices

Concomitant events: adversary reactions to F-15E presence/action

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

Neutralize

SAM

Neutralize Air Threat

Calling Perceive Actionable Entity (PAE): addressing potential threats

Entity of Interest (for PAE call) Goal (for PAE call)

SAMx: Detected but need target quality location…

PAE produces a BattleEffect for the Actionable and Goal PAE produces a BattleEffect for the Actionable and goal

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

Reactive

SEAD

Escort

Target SAMx

SAMx Threat

PAE Match Effectors (MEF): BattleEffects searching for BattleAssets

BattleEffect (for MEF)

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

F-35 Thor+Zeus

Escort

SAMx Threat

Response from Match Effectors (MEF): Ranked EffectEffectorMatches

EffectEffectorMatches (from MEF)

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

F-35 Thor+Zeus

Escort

SAMx Threat

Valid BattleCOAs must be Physically Possible: adjudicating conflicts and mutual exclusions

Mutual Exclusion: The F-35s cannot perform both of these tasks

Mutual Exclusion: The F-35s cannot perform both of these tasks

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

F-35 Thor+Zeus

Escort

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

SAMx Threat

Fix SAMx

Adding more world lines and identifying other conflicts: For the Effectors newly matched to SAMx, some will need target quality coordinates = new goal

New goal: “Fix SAMx” with target-quality location

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

F-35 Thor+Zeus

Escort

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

SAMx Threat

Filling in the EffectEffectorMatches and worldlines for the new goals identified in the BattleCOA generation reasoning

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

SAM

Threat

Air Threat

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

SAMx Threat

Connecting Events with Resource Need lines: Target-quality location for SAMx

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

BDA

on SAMx

Identifying more goals: Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) on SAMx

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

BattleCOAs must account for decisions that must be made:

Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) on SAMx

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Those decisions are like any other vertex: They need EffectEffectorMatches, world lines, resource needs, and may imply new goals

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Some events occur over long durations:

e.g., Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) collection and BattleAnalysis

Long-duration event, i.e., many other events occur while this event is on-going

Iterative events (may be multiple events)

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

More resource connections and new goals

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

Additional world lines for newly added Effectors and EffectorPacks

F-16 + F-18

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

Making sure all of the supporting BattleAssets have complete worldlines

F-16 + F-18

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

Connecting dependencies like resource needs

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

EA-37B

Marley

EA

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

F-16 + F-18

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

BattleCOAs should be greedy and selfish with BattleAssets:

There’s an EA-37B on station…let’s put them to work!

We now have a physically possible, tactically valid BattleCOAPath that is employing many of the available BattleAssets

Forward

Orbit

EA-37B

Marley

EA

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

F-16 + F-18

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

F-15E Gizmo

Join-up with Rockstar

Transit to S Hold Pt

F-16 + F-18

Join-up with Rockstar

KC-135

Rockstar to rendezvous

KC-135

RTBDrag to

Drop Off with Rockstar

F-16 + F-18

Reactive SEAD+Escort

Redbull

KC-46

Drag to Marshal

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

KC-135

Redbull to rendezvous

Go-No-Go Pub-Sub

Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

TAOC

Crusher

BM+BA

Rockstar Relay

Comms

Redbull Relay

Comms

Establish at S Hold Pt

BattleCOAs should explore the entire solution space:

What about the southern route (#3)?

Additional vertices and edges to build another path

Forward

Orbit

EA-37B

Marley

EA

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

F-16 + F-18

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy

Transit to Marshal

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

Pub-Sub SAMx Wpns Qual

Location

F-15E Gizmo

Transit to Marshal

F-15E Fix

C2 node

Establish at E Hold Pt

F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit Direct

E Hold Pt

Transit outbound

Redbull

KC-46

Refuel

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

Refuel with Rockstar

F-22 Harpy Escort

F-16 + F-18

Reactive

SEAD

B-1 Hades 21

Strike SAMx

DDG

Floater11

TLAM SAMx

Jarhead

HIMARS

Strike SAMx

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

Jarhead Prepare to

Strike SAMx

F-35 Thor+Zeus Grind SAMx

Cyber Hack SAMx

Hades 21 Transit to

SOW

Thor21 & Zeus21

Transit to

CAP

Floater11 Prepare TLAM

Launch on SAMx

DCGS

Fix

SAMx

Transit to ARCT Redbull

KC-46

Refuel Hades

B-1 Hades 21

Transit to Hold for Tasking

B-1 Hades 21

RTBFloater 11 Evasive Action

Jarhead Relocate

Coord Authority for Cyber

Op

Pub-Sub SAMx

BDA

IMINT

Image SAMx

Optimize IMINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze BDA

SAMx

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

Iterate Attack on

SAMx

Wombat Transit to Forward

Orbit

Transit to Fallback

Orbit

Go-No-Go MEZ-Pen

Pub-Sub MEZ-Pen Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

E-7 Wombat

BM+BA

This is one BattleCOAPath within our BattleCOA we built around the “seed” EffectEffectorMatch: 2xF-15s attacking a mobile C2 unit

2 x F-15Es attack mobile C2 unit subgraph: BattleCOAPath 1 of 2 “Direct Route”

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

CRE

Hydro

BM+BA

F-15E Fix

C2 node F-15E

Attack C2 Node

Transit outbound

SAM &

C2 Node Activity

Update Net

SIGINT

Monitor SAMs

Optimize SIGINT sensor for SAMx

DCGS

Analyze SAMs

F-15E Gizmo

Join-up with Rockstar

Transit to S Hold Pt

F-16 + F-18

Join-up with Rockstar

KC-135

Rockstar to rendezvous

KC-135

RTBDrag to

Drop Off with Rockstar

F-16 + F-18

Reactive SEAD+Escort

Redbull

KC-46

Drag to Marshal

Transit to Hold for Tasking

RTB

KC-135

Redbull to rendezvous

Go-No-Go Pub-Sub

Go-No-Go

BM Direction

Execution Support Net

TAOC

Crusher

BM+BA

Rockstar Relay

Comms

Redbull Relay

Comms

Establish at S Hold Pt

This is another BattleCOAPath within our BattleCOA we built around the “seed” EffectEffectorMatch: 2xF-15s attacking a mobile C2 unit

2 x F-15Es attack mobile C2 unit subgraph: BattleCOAPath 2 of 2 “South Route”

A few important notes on what makes a good BattleCOA (or “How do you generate BattleCOAs with Decision Advantage?”)

BattleCOAs must be physically possible:

• A BattleCOAPath cannot have a BattleAsset located in different (distant) places simultaneously

• A BattleCOAPath cannot have a BattleAsset performing mutually exclusive tasks simultaneously

• No magically resourced BattleAssets (like aircraft with unlimited fuel), and no teleportation

• No physically impossible vertices, e.g., a probe-and-drogue receiver can’t get fuel from a boom-only tanker

BattleCOAs must be tactically sound: e.g., placing an intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft over an enemy surface-to-air missile (SAM) site to maximize collection may be physically possible, but it is not likely tactically sound (assuming you care about your ISR aircraft…)

BattleCOAs should be greedy and selfish with BattleAssets: in order to fully explore the solution space, BattleCOA generation should consider the use of any viable BattleAsset even if that asset is currently spoken for in a plan or other BattleCOA. The reason is that you never know when some action will be canceled, freeing up assets, or when a particular BattleEffect may be identified as a DecisivePoint for which assets may be pulled. Unfortunately, in most cases when it really matters, human battle managers do not have time to fully explore the solution space…

BattleCOAs should be parsimonious with vertices: think about our example of the B-1 attacking the warship… We could have added an infinite number of “transit” vertices representing all the various and slightly different flight paths the B-1 could take, but what value would they add to the BattleCOA? If multiple vertices are nearly identical (same kind of event with the same participants and relationships), there should just be one vertex.

BattleCOAs should include all realm-of-possible+tactically-valid options: i.e., no missing yet feasible BattleCOAPaths…again, unfortunately, humans rarely have the time to consider more than one option, and there’s no guarantee the first thing they think of is the best possible.

BattleCOAs should adjudicate consequences of action: “consequent” events include adversary reactions, not just friendly follow-on tasks.

BattleCOA worldlines should be complete: for non-trivial worldlines, the earliest vertex must incorporate the current conditions of the OE and the participants’ states in that BattleEvent (i.e., it must account for InitialCircumstances), and the latest vertex must account for the final disposition of BattleAssets, whether they continue their mission (e.g., C2, Intel, and cyber agencies that aren’t necessarily “going anywhere”), go home (i.e., return to base or RTB), or proceed to some other task. 32

Consider the example of the B-1 attack on the ballistic missile launcher:

In the parlance of the Transformational Model for Decision Advantage (TM-DA), the B-1’s strike on the missile launcher is a BattleEvent, albeit one that may or may not lie in the near future. In this case, it is the “principal” BattleEvent for this instance of BattleCOA generation; think of it as the seed around which we will grow the web of other BattleEvents necessary for the B-1 to carry out some variation of their attack on the missile launcher and make it back safely.

Humans can consciously think about one thing at a time, so let’s consider the option we’ve already imagined:

the “alone-and-unafraid” option, although as we’ll see the B-1 can’t be entirely alone for this to work.

Suppose, given the current state of the OE, we determine the “not-quite-alone-and-unafraid” option needs:

Fuel for the B-1 Sensing and tracking for: target location and combat ID, in-flight target updates (IFTUs) for the bombs, and threat detection (such as adversary fighters potentially protecting the missile launcher) A reasonably deconflicted route into and out of the target area Comm paths for: target confirmation, weapon data link, threat warning, and execution support which includes things like general situational awareness, mission updates, safe passage routing information, etc.

We have a shopping list of sorts; now we can figure out who, if anyone, can support those needs…

File details come from the government source that posted it. Updated .