XS-1_Proposers'_Day_Program_Overview_Sponable.pdf

Mr. Jess Sponable, TTO Program Manager

Program Overview

6 November 2013

Experimental Spaceplane (XS-1)

A First Step Toward Reducing the Cost of Space Access by Orders of Magnitude

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The Problem: Access to Space

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• DoD payloads launched on Evolved ELV at ~$3B/year & growing

• Small payloads launched at ~$50M on few remaining Minotaurs

• No surge capability, long call-up times, typically > 2 years

• Budgets continue to decline

• Threats to space and air assets growing

United States Foreign

40m

50m

60m

70m

Evolved ELV

~8 DOD flts/yr > $400M/flight

Pegasus Minotaur Antares

~ 1 flt/yr ~$55M/flt

Falcon

~2 flts/yr ~$54-128M/flt Foreign Boosters

~60 Commercial & Gov’t flts/yr > $120M/flight

XS-1 Vision

• Break cycle of escalating space system costs

• Enable routine space access & hypersonic vehicles by integrating, testing, and maturing technologies and lean operations

• Provide capability for responsive launch of 3,000 – 5,000 lb payloads

Technical objectives

• Reusable first stage

• Fly XS-1 10 times in 10 days

• Fly XS-1 to Mach 10+ at least once

• Launch demo payload to orbit

• Design for recurring cost ≤ 1/10 Minotaur IV

(< $5M/flight for 3 – 5000 lbs to LEO at 10+ flts/yr)

Objectives explained further in next session

Solution: Experimental Spaceplane (XS-1)

Some Possible XS-1 Approaches

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Artist Concepts

Open Design Space

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Configuration Launch and Recovery CONEMPs

Propulsion TPS and Structures

• Ground launch

• Air launch

• Sea/barge launch

• Land downrange

• Return to launch site

• Winged

• Unwinged

• Payload carriage

• HTHL / VTHL / VTVL

• Stage count and type

• Metallic

• Composite

• Hybrid

• Active

• Passive

SSME

Shuttle Engines Merlin

Commercial Rocket

NK-33

Stockpiled

Russian Rocket

Traditional

Ventions

STA

XCOR

M o d u l a r

Novel

Artist Concepts Artist Concepts http:///

XS-1 F-15

Booster

Engine 2 Merlins

GLOW (K lbs) 223.9

MECO (K lbs) 47.4

Usable LOX/RP (K lbs) 176.5

Isp (vac) 310

Stage PMF 0.84

Upper Stage

GLOW (lbs) 15.0

Isp (vac) 336

Stage PMF 0.9

Payload (K lbs) 3.0

Using NK-33, air launch, two stage and/or scale-up 5K lb payload

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

A lt it u d e

K f t

Downrange, nmi

2-Stage Vehicle (GLOW-223.9K lbs) Booster (2-Merlins)

Propellant = 176.5K lbs

ISP (vac) = 310 sec

PMF = 0.84

Upper Stage (GLOW-15K lbs)

ISP (vac) = 336 sec

PMF = 0.90

Staging:

Time = 169.9 sec

DR = 71.9 nmi

Altitude = 237,155 ft

Mach = 10.8

Payload = 3,025 lbm

100x100 nmi

28.5 deg Inclination

61.6 ft

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0 500 1,000 1,500

M a c h

N u m b e r

Downrange, nmi

Maximum Booster Velocity

No Upper Stage

No Payload

Booster GLOW = 208,900 lbs

Merlins (Two)

ISP (vac) = 310 sec

PMF = 0.84

Max Velocity Mach 15.5

Descent AOA - 40 deg

Max Heating - 40 BTU/ft2-sec

Gov’t Reference X-Plane One of Many Possible Solutions

Expendable stage ~5% of dry stack weight

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Artist Concept

Ground Launch Minotaur IV

~4K lb Payload

Mach 10 Staging

3-5K lb Payload

Mach 5 Staging

5K lb

Payload

GLOW (K lbs) 190 67 15 No. Stages 4 2* 1* Cost ($M) ~50 10 ~1-2

Expendable Hardware Cost +

Tackle the tipping point < $5M/flight ($2M Ops + $3M Stage)

Reusable Aircraft Cost

Addressing the Cost Equation Aggressive and Achievable 10X Lower Recurring Flight Cost

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

0 100 200 300 400 500

R e cu rr in g

Fl ig h t

C o st

M /F lig h t, Flight Rate per Year

C-5 Cost Factors USAF Transport CONOPS

1960’s Tech

Gulfstream 550 Cost Factors Commercial CONOPS

Today’s Tech

F-15 Cost Factors USAF Fighter CONOPS

1970’s Tech

* Configured as expendable upper stage

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Why XS-1?

1. Breaks cycle of escalating space system costs

• Order of magnitude lower launch cost changes how spacecraft are built

• Enables new responsive & disaggregated architectures

• On path to affordable space

2. XS-1 enables new types of aircraft & test capabilities

• Space access aircraft Global ISR and protection

• Affordable hypersonic aircraft Low parts count & CTE structures/TPS

• Hypersonic testbed boost-glide systems & hypersonics

3. Enables ORS residual capability & disaggregation

• ORS Launch single smallsat or constellations for rapid employment

• Modular launch (bi-mese) captures AF missions, recaptures commercial market

• Disaggregation of stage or satellite can capture AF, NRO & commercial missions

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Key Goal: Break cycle of escalating space system cost 10X Cost Reduction Would Enable Many Benefits

Cost of

Access

Bigger Sats Greater Complexity

Longer Development

Longer Life

Unaffordable Space

Fewer Sats

Greater Redundancy

Increasing Obsolescence

Blk I: Sat $43M, Launch $55M

GPS Example Blk III: Sat $500M, Launch $300M

Smaller satellites

Shorter lifetime

More frequent tech refresh

Less redundancy

More failure tolerance

Fly more often

Affordable Space

Space Systems Cost Spiral Invert the Cost Equation

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• ‘97-’99 spike due to Iridium and Globalstar

• Lost commercial opportunities

• Commercial launch migrated overseas

… $Billions in lost revenue

… Grew cost of DOD launch

• New constellations hard to finance

… Teledesic

• Potential to leverage commercial sector

• Missions enabled by XS-1

• USAF ORS & “disaggregated” satellites

• Recapture commercial launch

Historical avg of 3-5 launches/yr at 5,000 lbs

Projected market much higher

XS-1 Market #1 (DOD) and #2 (Commercial) Responsive launch of 3 to 5K lb payloads

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 N o

S a te ll it e L a u n c h e s C a p tu re d

Note: All satellites launched on U.S. boosters. U.S. satellites launched on foreign boosters. Excludes classified & crewed flights. Counts satellites >1K lbs, aggregates smaller satellites.

XS-1 Capture of Historical U.S. Launches: 1993 to 2012

10,000–15,000 lbs

5,000–10,000 lbs

Satellite/Stage Mass

< 5,000 lbs

N o

P a y lo a d s

Worldwide Projected Payloads: 2013 to 2022

Mass (lbs) Note: Data from Teal Group, Aerospace America, June 2013

> 70 Launches/yr

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© Space Exploration Technologies

© Blue Origin

© XCOR Aerospace

© Virgin Galactic

© Stratolaunch Systems

© Teledesic

• Captive carry experiments

• May Limit Q and thermal testing

• Propulsion (RAM/SCRAM/Turbine)

• Airframe/Structures

• Thermal Protection

• Release free-flyer experiments

• Unpowered constant Q reentry

• Long test time vs. ground test

• Aerodynamic & thermal test

• Laminar flow/boundary transition

• Controls/avionics

• Powered test vehicle

• Longer flight tests

• Useful test data limited only by scale and cost

Constant Q Unpowered Glide from Engine Burn Out

Multiple Test Options

Projected Cost of Flight Test < Many (Not All) Ground Tests Test of component & systems RAM/SCRAM/turbine Boost-glide vehicles

Constant Q Test Time

~90 sec ~120 sec ~300 sec

400 600 800

Downrange (nm)

B u rn O u t

M a c h

N o

Free Flyers

Captive Carry

XS-1 Market #3 Hypersonic Testbed

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Commercial Capability

Commercial Launch for ORS, AF & Intel

Many Transition Options

Aircraft-Like operability

National security global reach architectures

Proposed XS-1 Program

F-15 (Size Ref)

Build

Mach 1-10 Bare Base

CONOPS

Flight Test

Demonstrate Payload to LEO

Enable AFSPC Full Spectrum Launch Capability

Near Term Transition

Options

Space Access/ISR

Vehicle

Hypersonic Testbed

XS-1 Future Markets: #4, #5, etc.

Technology scaleable to future capability

XS-1

Point-to- Point

Boost-Glide Transport

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Artist Concepts

Robust DOD and commercial launch industry with ideas

Growing small satellite industry building low cost satellites

• Commercial

• Military

• Civil

Emerging DOD requirements for disaggregation & resiliency

• Disaggregation: downsize spacecraft for routine, responsive & affordable launch

• Resiliency: ability to fight through contested & congested environments

Consider Near-Term (#1 - #3) and Future (#4 - #5) Markets for transition when developing XS-1 designs!

Transition Path Requires Proactive Industry

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© Space Exploration

© Blue Origin

© XCOR

Aerospace

© Virgin Galactic

© Sierra Nevada Corporation

© Skybox Imaging

© Space Exploration

© Teledesic

© Globalstar

© Orbital Sciences

Legacy of Past Programs

$3 billion

Past programs over specified the problem (SSTO, scramjet, heavy lift, crewed, etc.) AND relied on immature designs and technology (TRL 2/3)

$1.3 billion

VentureStar

Initial Goals (requirements)

NASA human rated Payload – 65K lbs $10M per flight

AF crewed Payload < 10K lbs SSTO, scramjet powered Aircraft-like ops, fast turn

NASA human rated Payload - 65K lbs SSTO, rocket powered Aircraft-like ops, fast turn

Technology (at start)

TRL ~3 and immature design New LOX/LH2 SSME Unproven materials/TPS Toxic OMS/RCS, etc.

1960s/1970s technology

TRL ~2 and immature design New LS/RAM/SCRAM/rocket New materials/structures New LOX/LH2 tanks New hot structure TPS, etc

TRL ~3 and immature design Mod LOX/LH2 aerospike rocket New composite structures New metallic TPS New LOX/H2 tanks, etc.

Approach Expendable launch (SRB, ET) Operational after 4 flights Evolved to “space station”

X-Plane first Incremental flight test

X-Plane first Incremental flight test

Outcome Successful flights Very expensive with ground “standing army”

Never flew Design never closed Technology not available

Never flew Design never closed Technology not available

Space Shuttle

>$10 billion

NASP

$3 billion

NASP

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Responsive Ops

Affordable Composite Airframe

“Trimmed” Full Envelope

AG&C

Integrated Systems Health

Management

Affordable Infrastructure

Thermal Protection Systems

Cycle of Prep, Launch, Recovery, and Turnaround within Single Day

Integrated RLV Subsystems

Ongoing Long Term High Ops Tempo Propulsion

Low Cost Upper Stage

Autonomous Operations

FOCC Design

Integration

Aircraft-Like Ops

250k lbf. thrust Brassboard Demos

Off-the-Shelf propulsion available for demo

What Has Changed?

20 years of investment Technology mature & affordable

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Challenges to Achieving Lower Cost Complements heavy Falcon & EELV payloads – does not compete

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Conventional Launch Vehicle

Trendline

Delta II Variants

Small Solid Launchers

S p e c if ic C o s t

(k lb m

Payload to LEO (klbm)

ALASA

EELV

Variants

XS-1

Trade Space

• Design and system integration enabling “aircraft-like” operations

• Light weight/high energy airframe, high propellant mass fraction

• Durable thermal structures/ protection, -300oF to +3,000oF

• Reusable, long life & affordable propulsion

Note: Data extracted from FY12 PE/BPAC data, Excludes AFSPC payroll at launch sites and base O&M

ELV Launch Cost Breakdown

Technical Challenges

Facility, support, launch complex, $1.32 Launch

Vehicles, $1.44

Mission Assurance, $0.20

Falcon 9

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Facility, support, launch complex, $1.32

Mission Assurance, $0.20

ISHM

Clean pad

Few Facilities, Small Crew Size

Autonomous Ops

Incorporate “-ilities”

Complex to Simplex

Today’s Launch Complex

Launch Site/Base Manpower Comparisons M a n p o w e r/ A ir c ra ft

Goal

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE, NO SOLID BOOSTERS, SIMPLE

STAGE, etc.

SPECIAL GSE

OPS FLOW MGMT

AUTOMATED CHECKOUT

ON BOARD SELF TEST

ON BOARD HEALTH MONITORING

PAYLOAD STANDARD INTERFACES

INCREMENTAL FLIGHT TEST

Delta II Baseline Data

T u rn a ro u n d h o u rs

Design for Rapid Turn Reduces Manpower

Design and System Integration Enable “aircraft-like” operations

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Design Integration “Clean Pad” Aircraft-Like Operations

• Aircraft-like CONOPS

– Clean pad - rapid throughput

– Ops Control Center – like aircraft

– Containerized payloads

• Aircraft GSE/Facilities where practical

– Hangars, not specialized buildings

– Standard interfaces/processes

– Automated ops, propellant & fluid loading

CLEAN PAD CONOPS

Rapid Throughput, < 24 hrs on pad

OPS CONTROL CENTER

Small 3 Person Ops Crew Size

Flight Manager

(FM)

Deputy FM Crew Chief

• Integrated Systems Health Management

– Determine real-time system health

– Integrate with Adaptive G&C

– Enable reliable, rapid turnaround aircraft

• Leverage high ops tempo investments

– ALASA – Autonomous Flight Termination System

– ALASA – Rangeless range, space based command, control & data acquisition

– Adaptive GN&C – safe, reliable recovery/abort

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Light Weight / High Energy Airframe High Propellant Mass Fraction (PMF)

12-34337_1008c

436.0

223.4 176.6 f 4.0 f 96.0

LOX Fuel at -298Fº RP Fuel

Insulated

Common BulkheadForward Dome

Aft Dome

(Solid Laminate)

LOX Downcomers

Sandwich Barrel Wall

NASA

Open-Core Tank in Fabrication

Design tank / airframe structure to enable high PMF/∆V

USAF

Monocoque Tank in

Test

V = ISP * g * ln

1 - PMF

Launch Vehicles, $1.44

Mission Assurance, $0.20

Tank/Structure Integration

Integral load bearing structure

High PMF key to performance

10X fewer parts & lower cost

Reusable vehicle cost is amortized rapidly …

Composite Structures Reduce

Weight ~30% aka X-55

Affordable Structure

Unit Cost

No. Flights

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Durable Thermal Structures / Protection -300 oF to +3,000 oF

Emerging Thermal Structures

Composite Hot Structures

Aircraft Hot Wash Structures

Mechanical Atch

Quick- Release Fastener

AFRSI and CRI

Leading Edges ACC, C/SiC, TUFROC

Many Thermal Protection Options

Space Shuttle Post- Flight CMC/TUFI

Tiles

Launch Vehicles, $1.44

Fibrous Opacified Insulation

Honeycomb Composites

500 1,000 1,500

Time (sec)

H e a t

R a te

(B T

U ft s e c

13.3K BTU’s/ft2

51K BTU’s/ft2 <2K BTU’s/ft2

How you design & fly is key!

Reentry AOA – 30o

Reentry AOA – 70o

Mach 10 suborbital

POST Results Ref Heating on 1 ft

Radii Leading Edge

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Reusable, Long Life and Affordable Propulsion Multiple Options – Design Integration Challenge

Merlin Commercial

Rocket

Multiple Affordable Propulsion Options

NK-33

Stockpiled

Russian Rocket

SSME

Space

Shuttle Engines Ventions

STA

XCOR

M

O

D

U

L

A

O

C

K

E

T

Launch Vehicles, $1.44

Mission Assurance, $0.20

Use existing propulsion with mods for

• Long life … rapid call up/turnaround … deep throttle

• High reliability … historically, most launch failures caused by propulsion

Design as Line Replaceable Unit

• Rapid remove and replace

• Support high ops tempo flight rate

© Space Exploration Technologies

© XCOR Aerospace

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FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Source Selection

Phase 1- Initial Design

- Risk Reduction

- System Design Integration

Phase 2 – Final Design Fabrication and IA&E

- Reusable aircraft

- Upper stage

Phase 3 - Flight Test Campaign

- Transition Opportunities

PDR

Phase 1

Phase 3

KO

XS-1 Design

Airframe

Fab

IA&T

IDIQ

Upper Stage Integration

1st Flight Orbital Flight

Select XS-1 prime

Anticipated Way Ahead

Propulsion

CDR

USAF, NASA, Industry

Technology Off-Ramps

XS-1 Design

Phase 2

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Highlights

• New era – Launch costs growing, budgets declining and threats proliferating

• Disruptive – Order of magnitude lower cost new game changing capabilities

• Leverage – Emerging suborbital and launch technology & entrepreneurs

• Transition – Industry leads, many paths forward Commercial, DoD, civil

XS-1 program can be agent for change …

… DARPA open to innovative industry proposals

Summary

Several Notional Concepts

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M ac h N o

Proposed

XS-1

Flight Test Mach 10 Validates Critical Technology

Technology Requirements Demonstrated Distribution Statement A – Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited. 23 www.darpa.mil

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