2026-2036_Enrollment_Projections.pdf
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- Attached to
- Student Transportation Services
- Solicitation number
- 2026-08-651
- Issued by
- Collin County, Texas
About this file
This is an enrollment projections document prepared by McKinney Independent School District (MISD) in Texas, providing ten-year fall enrollment forecasts from 2026 through 2036 across all district campuses. The projections span elementary schools, middle schools, high schools, and alternative campuses, with detailed enrollment data for each facility. Elementary school enrollment is projected to grow from 10,186 students in 2026-27 to 11,671 students by 2035-36, representing a 14.56% increase over the decade. Middle school enrollment is forecasted to rise from 5,611 students in 2026-27 to 6,667 students in 2035-36, a 18.83% growth rate. High school enrollment is projected to fluctuate between 7,557 and 8,265 students during the same period, with overall growth of 5.95% from 2026-27 to 2035-36. Alternative campus enrollments, including the County Residential Center, Lawson Early Childhood School, JJ AEP, and Serenity High School, are expected to remain relatively stable at approximately 724 students in 2026-27, growing modestly to 738 students by 2035-36.
District-wide total enrollment is projected to increase from 23,889 students in 2026-27 to 27,329 students in 2035-36, representing a cumulative growth of 3,440 students or 14.41% over the ten-year projection period. Individual elementary schools show varying enrollment trajectories; notably, Press Elementary is projected to experience significant growth from 738 students in 2026-27 to 1,762 students by 2035-36, while others such as Vega Elementary and Walker Elementary are expected to maintain relatively stable or slightly declining enrollments. Johnson Middle School is forecasted for substantial growth from 1,024 students in 2026-27 to 1,887 students in 2035-36, indicating significant capacity demands in that area. These enrollment projections serve as critical planning data for McKinney ISD's student transportation services contract, as they directly inform the contractor's requirements for bus fleet size, driver staffing levels, route planning, and overall service capacity needed to accommodate the district's growing student population over the next decade.
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Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus Design Functional
23/24 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36
BENNETT ELEMENTARY 800 792 554 558 522 481 425 409 783 738 708 685 677 684 687 689 692 692 BURKS ELEMENTARY 480 420 351 332 329 366 430 397 472 442 445 427 403 394 387 379 377 354 CALDWELL DUAL LANGUAGE ACADEMY 484 484 486 455 458 451 410 443 476 482 498 510 523 527 537 545 559 569 FINCH ELEMENTARY 540 540 320 333 325 337 338 320 403 401 406 407 410 416 421 427 434 434 FRAZIER ELEMENTARY 900 880 0 0 0 711 790 810 837 873 924 956 996 1,032 1,016 1,005 1,076 1,103 GLEN OAKS ELEMENTARY 653 594 480 494 526 512 479 474 624 612 601 595 573 560 528 488 471 475 JOHNSON ELEMENTARY 653 528 455 407 380 388 373 361 533 530 551 540 542 553 559 555 550 543 MALVERN ELEMENTARY 647 600 432 419 442 437 417 430 538 520 525 539 551 547 540 537 550 553 MCCLURE ELEMENTARY 850 748 601 632 630 608 659 782 602 628 650 672 685 703 727 745 761 779 MCGOWEN ELEMENTARY 850 770 548 568 578 561 568 563 672 685 683 677 672 656 650 641 635 628 MINSHEW ELEMENTARY 850 792 564 524 513 461 434 446 663 663 673 697 714 709 712 705 697 686 PRESS ELEMENTARY 850 680 654 772 830 424 586 738 503 855 971 1142 1206 1283 1412 1476 1588 1762 SLAUGHTER ELEMENTARY 647 640 587 587 578 559 556 564 612 571 576 577 593 589 588 581 575 569 VALLEY CREEK ELEMENTARY 622 594 465 487 571 509 499 524 576 527 548 545 531 522 511 497 487 477 VEGA ELEMENTARY 647 640 430 422 477 475 493 467 644 490 468 468 453 445 440 436 435 386 WALKER ELEMENTARY 647 462 451 455 432 412 382 388 458 447 451 451 462 456 459 455 458 468 WEBB ELEMENTARY 596 560 369 343 355 389 475 522 505 588 619 636 626 584 568 570 582 607 WILMETH ELEMENTARY 850 704 596 549 544 495 434 441 615 605 588 587 605 588 587 605 588 587 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 12,566 11,428 9,463 9,473 9,612 9,716 9,839 10,186 10,516 10,657 10,885 11,111 11,222 11,248 11,329 11,336 11,515 11,671 Elementary Absolute Change 10 139 104 123 347 330 141 228 226 110 27 81 7 179 157 Elementary Percent Change 0.11% 1.47% 1.08% 1.27% 3.53% 3.24% 1.34% 2.14% 2.08% 0.99% 0.24% 0.72% 0.06% 1.58% 1.36%
Fall Campus Capacity 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36
DOWELL MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,500 1,108 1,069 1,078 1,047 992 977 1175 1203 1206 1162 1098 1070 1060 1089 1069 1086 COCKRILL MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,500 1,233 1,308 1,282 1,223 1,215 1,210 1,255 1,218 1,271 1,255 1287 1303 1337 1330 1311 1320 FAUBION MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,500 1,339 1,310 1,252 1,158 1,037 1,101 1,217 1,123 1,132 1,206 1,209 1,298 1,279 1,268 1,272 1,279 EVANS MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,500 944 892 830 782 799 732 940 1034 1056 1071 1064 1061 1053 1059 1072 1095 JOHNSON MIDDLE SCHOOL 1,500 936 918 941 1050 1102 1,309 1,024 1,109 1,199 1,296 1,376 1,507 1,617 1,701 1,785 1,887 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 7,500 5,560 5,497 5,383 5,260 5,145 5,329 5,611 5,687 5,864 5,990 6,034 6,239 6,346 6,447 6,509 6,667 Middle School Absolute Change -63 -114 -123 -115 184 282 76 177 126 44 205 107 101 62 158 Middle School Percent Change -1.13% -2.07% -2.28% -2.19% 3.58% 5.29% 1.35% 3.11% 2.15% 0.73% 3.40% 1.72% 1.59% 0.96% 2.43% BOYD HIGH SCHOOL 3,000 2,743 2,722 2,653 2,551 2,549 2,595 2,730 2,800 2,867 2,940 2,959 3,008 2,989 2,995 3,018 2,977 MCKINNEY HIGH SCHOOL 3,000 2,976 2,963 2,920 2,808 2,676 2,540 3,014 2,590 2,429 2,407 2,497 2,563 2,649 2,710 2,735 2,764 MCKINNEY NORTH HIGH SCHOOL 2,400 2,171 2,162 2,156 2,312 2,392 2,552 2,046 2,167 2,261 2,368 2,514 2,514 2,510 2,510 2,512 2,512 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 8,400 7,890 7,847 7,729 7,671 7,617 7,687 7,790 7,557 7,557 7,715 7,970 8,085 8,148 8,215 8,265 8,253 High School Absolute Change -43 -118 -58 -54 70 103 -233 0 158 255 115 63 67 50 -12 High School Percent Change -0.54% -1.50% -0.75% -0.70% 0.92% 1.34% -2.99% 0.00% 2.09% 3.31% 1.44% 0.78% 0.82% 0.61% -0.15% COUNTY RESIDENTIAL CENTER 71 75 92 85 89 103 103 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 LAWSON EARLY CHILDHOOD SCH 405 500 523 611 601 562 545 600 591 598 604 601 605 608 611 614
JJ AEP 3 2 62 31 27 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
SERENITY HIGH SCHOOL 6 9 5 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
ALTERNATIVE CAMPUS TOTALS 485 586 682 736 726 687 670 724 715 722 728 725 729 732 735 738 DISTRICT TOTALS 29,770 23,398 23,403 23,406 23,383 23,327 23,889 24,587 24,625 25,021 25,538 25,954 26,297 26,552 26,730 27,024 27,329 District Absolute Change 3 ‐23 562 698 39 396 517 415 343 255 177 294 305 District Percent Change 0.01% ‐0.10% 2.41% 2.92% 0.16% 1.61% 2.07% 1.63% 1.32% 0.97% 0.67% 1.10% 1.13%
Capacity History
History ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
26_27 FORECAST
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