Actuarial Research Corporation

Actuarial Research Corporation, a for-profit Subchapter S corporation based in Annandale, Virginia, delivers Medicare and Medicaid actuarial analysis, healthcare financial modeling, and research and analytics services to federal health agencies as a prime contractor (89% of recent awards) and subordinate subcontractor on federal demonstration projects. The vendor competes across full-and-open and small-business set-aside vehicles without a primary SBA designation; recent work splits between small-business Total Small Business set-asides and unrestricted full-and-open awards.

Customer concentration at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is overwhelming. CMS represents 70 of 149 recent prime awards and $3.94 billion of the vendor's $4.61 billion combined potential value across its full portfolio. The Department of Labor Employee Benefits Security Administration and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Administration (within HHS) are distant secondary customers, accounting for 23 awards ($29.4 million) and 7 awards ($522.6 million) respectively. The concentration is anchored by a $3.5 billion IDIQ awarded by CMS on July 9, 2026, under the Research, Measurement, Assessment, Design, and Analysis 3 (RMADA 3) vehicle, which provides analytic support and technical assistance for models and demonstrations under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Representative delivery orders on MAS vehicles include a $11.8 million CMS award (May 11, 2026, Total Small Business set-aside) for actuarial and financial analysis supporting new model development and center-wide portfolio analysis, a $5.47 million CMS order (August 29, 2023, no set-aside) for actuarial support to the Office of the Actuary, and a $4.77 million CMS award (May 1, 2023) for actuarial review and estimates for prescription drug and Medicare Advantage plans.

Actuarial Research Corporation's capability footprint centers on Medicare and Medicaid actuarial support, prescription drug and Medicare Advantage plan review, physician fee schedule rate setting and geographic practice cost analysis, healthcare demonstration project implementation and monitoring, and cost estimation and statistical modeling for federal health policy. The vendor self-performs substantially all work; across SCI-reportable prime contracts, the vendor self-performs 94 percent of contracted hours with only 6 percent subcontracted across 20 named subcontractors. SCI-reported invoiced revenue ran $6.2 million to $6.9 million annually from FY2022 through FY2025, reflecting 11.6 to 17.2 FTEs delivered to the federal government in each fiscal year. Government-paid hourly rates on prime contracts median around $241 per hour, with senior labor pricing through $405 per hour for recognized expert actuaries; entry-level financial assistance roles start around $50 per hour. GSA Schedule labor categories span 45 unique positions across the $82 to $492 per hour range, from bachelor's-level financial assistants through master's-degree expert financial modelers, with no security-clearance requirements.

The vendor operates primarily as a prime contractor under the GSA Multiple Award Schedule (21 task orders, $55 million combined potential value), Federal Supply Schedule vehicles GS23F0058T and GS10F0289P (13 and 10 task orders respectively), and the RMADA 3 IDIQ. Activity has been episodic — three awards in 2022, eight in 2023, eight in 2024, two in 2025, and three in 2026 — with four awards (combined potential value $17.4 million) approaching ultimate completion within the next twenty-four months and subject to recompete. When operating as a subcontractor, Actuarial Research Corporation delivers healthcare demonstration program analysis and operational support to Research Triangle Institute, National Opinion Research Center, Mathematica, RAND, MITRE, Sensa Solutions, and Sparksoft Corporation on Medicare alternative payment models, accountable care organization analysis, risk adjustment modeling, and physician fee schedule practice expense analysis.

ARC is a unique organization encompassing actuarial & health research activities with staff members that are recognized experts in their fields. ARC has decades of experience with Medicare, Medicaid, & private health insurance programs. ARC has worked with CMS & other federal entities for more than 30 years on a variety of projects where they have provided expert actuarial analysis, policy evaluation & analytic support services for health insurance issues. ARC leverages this expertise to develop actuarial cost models & analytic policy tools, & to provide expert input to officials, policy advocacy groups, associations, & international governments.

ARC provides technical assistance, implementation, monitoring, evaluation & operational support to many CMS demonstration projects, with a special focus on the development & implementation of methods to determine program savings & performance-based financial incentives for the Medicare & Medicaid programs.