Actuarial Research Corporation

Actuarial Research Corporation, a for-profit Subchapter S corporation based in Annandale, Virginia, delivers actuarial analysis, healthcare financial modeling, and research and analytics services to federal health agencies as a prime contractor (89% of recent awards) and as a subcontractor to research organizations. The vendor competes across both set-aside (Total Small Business) and full-and-open vehicles, with set-asides appearing on roughly one-third of recent prime awards; customer concentration and dollar magnitude sit almost entirely with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which accounts for 69 of 149 recent prime awards and $3.94 billion of the $4.6 billion combined potential value across ARC's full portfolio.

ARC's capability footprint centers on Medicare and Medicaid actuarial support, prescription drug and Medicare Advantage plan review, physician fee schedule rate setting and geographic practice cost analysis, healthcare demonstration project implementation and monitoring, and cost estimation and statistical modeling for federal health policy. Recent representative prime work includes a $11.7 million Total Small Business delivery order from CMS (awarded May 2026) for actuarial and financial analysis supporting new model development and center-wide portfolio analysis under the GSA Multiple Award Schedule; a $5.5 million non-set-aside delivery order (August 2023) for actuarial services supporting CMS's Office of the Actuary with time-and-materials pricing; a $4.77 million firm fixed-price delivery order (May 2023) for actuarial review and estimates on prescription drug and Medicare Advantage plans; and a $5.63 million Total Small Business delivery order (March 2022) for Medicare Physician Fee Schedule rate-setting support. ARC also holds a $3.5 billion IDIQ awarded in July 2026 under the Research, Measurement, Assessment, Design, and Analysis 3 (RMADA 3) indefinite-delivery vehicle, which provides analytic support and technical assistance for models and demonstrations under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

SCI-reported invoiced revenue across federal service contracts ran $19.6 million from FY2022 through FY2024, averaging $6.5 million annually in FY2024 across roughly 13 FTEs. Government-paid hourly rates on prime contracts ranged from a median of $234.12 per hour, with rates spanning a low of $44.06 per hour for entry-level financial assistance roles and a high of $406.92 per hour for recognized senior actuaries and expert financial modelers. GSA Schedule labor rates reflect 45 active categories from $82.40 per hour (Senior Financial Assistant, bachelor's level) through $492.42 per hour (Expert Financial Modeler, master's level, 20 years' experience), with no security-cleared roles in the published portfolio. Across SCI-reportable prime contracts, ARC self-performed 94% of contracted hours, with named subcontractors accounting for a 6% average sub-hours share.

The vendor operates as a subcontractor to research-focused primes including Research Triangle Institute (Making Care Primary design and operations, Medicare Shared Savings Program ACO program analysis), the MITRE Corporation (Patient Care First model support), Mathematica Inc. (Independence at Home demonstration), National Opinion Research Center (Medicare FFS alternative payment system testing), The RAND Corporation (Medicare physician fee schedule practice expense analysis), and Sensa Solutions, Inc. (healthcare demonstration program analysis). ARC's customer base extends beyond CMS to the Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (23 awards, $29.4 million combined potential value) and the Defense Health Agency and Department of Defense in smaller volumes.

The vendor holds positions on the GSA Multiple Award Schedule (20 task orders, $52.1 million combined potential value), two federal supply schedules — GS23F0058T (13 task orders, $29.4 million) and GS10F0289P (10 task orders, $11.6 million) — and the RMADA 3 IDIQ alongside earlier RMADA generation vehicles. Four awards carrying combined potential value of $18.6 million reach ultimate completion within the next twenty-four months, creating recompete opportunity. Recent activity shows a decline from eight awards in 2023 and 2024 to two awards in 2025 and two in 2026, though the July 2026 award of the $3.5 billion RMADA 3 IDIQ anchors the vendor's near-term pipeline.

ARC is a unique organization encompassing actuarial & health research activities with staff members that are recognized experts in their fields. ARC has decades of experience with Medicare, Medicaid, & private health insurance programs. ARC has worked with CMS & other federal entities for more than 30 years on a variety of projects where they have provided expert actuarial analysis, policy evaluation & analytic support services for health insurance issues. ARC leverages this expertise to develop actuarial cost models & analytic policy tools, & to provide expert input to officials, policy advocacy groups, associations, & international governments.

ARC provides technical assistance, implementation, monitoring, evaluation & operational support to many CMS demonstration projects, with a special focus on the development & implementation of methods to determine program savings & performance-based financial incentives for the Medicare & Medicaid programs.