Westpac_Forecasting_Metrics_FBO.pdf

DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY

AMERICA’S COMBAT LOGISTICS SUPPORT AGENCY

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Westpac Forecasting Metrics

Apr 6, 2017

Deliver the right solution on time, every time

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Westpac JP8 DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

Ax is

Ti tle

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Lag 1 83.75% 75.20% 78.88% 77.63% 98.41% 96.62% 98.25% 90.37% 95.55% 92.60% 88.07% 90.83% Lag 4 88.64% 75.14% 76.61% 77.29% 81.31% 83.54% 86.75% 95.56% 95.61% 94.06% 86.46% 88.23% Lag 12 90.49% 76.62% 77.43% 80.85% 86.64% 83.46% 86.76% 83.99% 86.36% 77.26% 72.33% 72.60%

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Westpac JP8 Enriched Forecast 12 Month Enriched Forecast Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

• 555,458,544 USG or 13,225,203 BBLS

Aggregated DPAs

• Lag 1 88.85% Lag 4 85.77% Lag 12 81.23%

Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)

• 561,156,002 USG or 13,360,857 BBLS

Total Variance Previous 12 Months FDH

• 66,570,567 USG or 1,585,014 BBLS

• 89.39%

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Westpac JP5 DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

Ax is

Ti tle

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Lag 1 86.10% 90.80% 92.75% 76.30% 90.74% 64.11% 94.30% 58.51% 62.77% 76.21% 99.50% 98.89% Lag 4 85.68% 90.66% 95.76% 76.59% 87.59% 67.20% 91.89% 63.49% 61.87% 76.44% 97.31% 97.75% Lag 12 73.34% 76.96% 97.68% 79.13% 93.13% 59.64% 98.87% 56.47% 66.76% 77.58% 90.53% 95.58%

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Westpac JP5 Enriched Forecast 12 Month Enriched Forecast Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

• 38,434,512 USG or 915,107 BBLS

Aggregated DPAs

• Lag 1 82.58% Lag 4 82.69% Lag 12 80.47%

Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)

• 41,027,282 USG or 976,840 BBLS

Total Variance Previous 12 Months FDH

• 3,380,818 USG or 80,496 BBLS

• 92.39%

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Westpac F76 DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

Ax is

Ti tle

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Lag 1 76.29% 76.32% 73.75% 78.15% 56.83% 88.08% 76.06% 82.20% 93.95% 99.57% 95.53% 59.10% Lag 4 78.27% 73.10% 73.37% 84.96% 57.52% 94.68% 74.47% 85.07% 90.97% 99.57% 90.65% 62.74% Lag 12 92.90% 75.30% 65.31% 85.96% 58.58% 95.10% 76.86% 84.86% 88.12% 94.69% 93.24% 57.36%

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Westpac F76 Enriched Forecast 12 Month Enriched Forecast Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

• 84,441,816 USG or 2,010,519 BBLS

Aggregated DPAs

• Lag 1 79.65% Lag 4 80.45% Lag 12 80.69%

Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)

• 79,578,248 USG or 1,894,720 BBLS

Total Variance Previous 12 Months FDH

• 5,011,522 USG or 119,321 BBLS

• 94.08%

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Westpac RME DPA

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

Ax is

Ti tle

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Lag 1 71.66% 23.22% 75.71% 45.77% 78.76% 9.86% 79.59% 29.50% 93.61% 27.24% 22.80% 65.66% Lag 4 70.15% 27.44% 78.57% 47.61% 71.30% 11.00% 75.43% 29.86% 74.49% 33.54% 26.03% 43.90% Lag 12 93.41% 19.90% 79.39% 43.65% 77.56% 11.56% 60.66% 33.74% 67.84% 32.85% 25.59% 52.96%

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Westpac RME Enriched Forecast 12 Month Enriched Forecast Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

• 2,371,956 USG or 56,475 BBLS

Aggregated DPAs

• Lag 1 51.95% Lag 4 49.11% Lag 12 49.93%

Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)

• 3,074,595 USG or 73,205 BBLS

Total Variance Previous 12 Months FDH

• 13,364 USG or 318 BBLS

• 99.57%