RFP Attachment J.2. M&E Program Logics and Diagrams.pdf

Attachment J.2

Attachment J.2: Program Logics (Theories of Change) and Program Logic Diagrams

ALTIF Project Logic

The ALTIF Project seeks to resolve constraints in the access to land, the investment process, and other barriers which impede investments in high quality tourist accommodations in Solomon

Islands.

The ultimate objective of the program is to facilitate 1-2 high-value accommodation investments, expected to create additional employment, increase local purchases, and alleviate strains on foreign exchange. To achieve this objective, MCC’s proposed interventions aim to establish improved investment facilitation functions, delivering a more transparent and coordinated approach to courting potential investors in tourist accommodations. Moreover, MCC’s program will include support to improved access to land, focused particularly on facilitating the negotiation of social license between an investor, landowner and community, as misunderstanding between these parties around social license has acted as a barrier to investment growth.

Results expected prior to the end of the program include: identification of registered land parcels with a high potential to attract tourism investment and strategic potential investors, allowing investment facilitators to begin advocating with and facilitating potential investments by strategic tourism investors. Education programs, local land governance improvement interventions, and recording of customary lands adjacent to investable sites will also be carried out during the life of the program, aiming to both establish more equitable outcomes for communities while lessening the land-related constraints on potential tourism investments. Finally, a tourism task force is expected to work through an iterative process of diagnosis and addressing key barriers to investment across government, aiming to remove procedural and technical impediments to effective investment facilitation and eventual accommodation transactions.

A brief list of project assumptions are also described in the program logic. Namely, in relation to an eventual investment’s social license in surrounding communities, it is assumed that the project’s efforts around social license facilitation and education will support equitable community benefits, as previous investments have been impeded when such community benefit sharing is either not equitable or is not perceived as equitable.

Next, in relation to risk-sharing and blended finance aspects of the Investment Facilitation

Activity, it is assumed that complementary assets and/or markets are either pre-existing in strategic potential investment sites or will be developed in order to achieve an acceptable level of risk sharing for priority investors. These complementary assets and/or markets may include relevant attractions, conservation of critical resources, development and maintenance of priority infrastructure, or other site-specific aspects which drive value and/or mitigate investment risk.

Finally, in relation to the reform of land governance and investment facilitation policies and practices, it is assumed that rather than facilitating one-off “deals” to solve investment rigidities and bottlenecks, that the project will establish transparent, rules-based systems which help ensure potential future investors are able to transparently assess potential investments without requiring elite-centric, potentially elite-captured resolutions to rigidities in the investment process.

Figure 1: ALTIF Project Logic Diagram

FoVEP Project Logic

The Forest Value Enhancement Project seeks to address three key negative outcomes of status quo mismanagement and weak regulation of forest resources. Namely, the environmental damage caused by unsustainable logging practices, the elite capture of logging benefits, and the regulatory disincentives to forest-derived economic alternatives.

The ultimate objective of the program is to generate more reliable, sustainable revenues from

Solomon Islands’ natural resources by (1) attenuating negative environmental impacts, (2) increasing and more equitably sharing the community and national benefits of forest resources, and (3) achieving a more balanced regulatory and enforcement regime between logging and non-logging uses of forests. Intermediate outcomes expected to support achievement of these outcomes are (1) preservation or effective management of forests areas, (2) diversification of forest-derived economic benefits away from strict reliance on logging, and (3) more equitable land use and land governance.

Results expected prior to the end of the Program are: (1) delivery of an accredited PES program that is able to sell carbon credits and to establish alternative, non-logging livelihoods in selected communities, and (2) incremental reforms in the forestry sector’s regulatory and enforcement environment based on tangible, identifiable problems within SIG’s purview.

Two key assumptions underlie the project’s ability to build momentum for reform in the forestry sector. In particular, the first assumption is that PES sites will be capable of demonstrating a more sustainable, equitable approach to forest management such that national and provincial government actors as well as communities will display greater willingness to reform logging norms, regulations, and practices. The second assumption, related to the PDIA activities, is that the Forest Management Reform Teams are composed of government and civil society partners with willingness and range of motion to take incremental reform steps, and that once key barriers to reform are identified, that the program will empower these actors to identify practical, achievable tasks that will begin to alleviate these barriers

Figure 2: FoVEP Project Logic Diagram

Indicator Tables:

The tables below list a notional set of M&E indicators, at the output and outcome level, linked to each result in the Project Logics (see above). Key Indicators that can be reported on at least an annual basis will be included in quarterly monitoring reports (i.e. Task 18 in the SoW), while Indicators that require survey data or a longer period to track will be included in independent evaluation reports (ie.

not expected to be reported by the Contractor in Task 18 deliverables). The expectation is that these indicators will be refined and improved upon as new information becomes available, notably during the completion of Tasks 15 and 16 in the SoW.

A number of national-level outcome indicators are not expected to set targets, as it would be too imprecise to predict how those outcomes will change when so many other factors influence them (chief among which, the recovery from CoVID-19’s health and economic crises). Many baselines and targets are “To Be Determined” (TBD). In many cases, the indicator needs to be more precisely defined and baseline data needs to be collected before a realistic target can be set (and in some cases a baseline and target may turn out not to be feasible/cost-effective). In other cases, further program definition is necessary for precisely defined, measurable indicators to be established. Not applicable is signaled with an “N/A.”

Figure 3: ALTIF and FoVEP Indicator Tables

Result from Project Logic

Indicator Definition Unit Baseline Threshold

Target Year 4

Indicator Tracking

Table Indicator (Yes/No)

Outcome Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Project-wide

Increased Tourism Investment in Solomons

New 3- or 4-star accommodation investments closed

Number of new accommodations that have reached financial close for a 3- or 4-star accommodation investment

Number 0 1 Yes

Increased understanding among key ecosystem actors on the level of risk-sharing investors require for tourism projects in Solomon Islands

TBD TBD TBD TBD No

Jobs & Productivity Gains

Estimated number of full-time equivalent jobs hired by targeted tourism investments

Direct labor employed by the new accommodations when in operation.

Number TBD TBD No

Increased demand for human capital

Degree to which accommodation investments are determined to have increased demand for more-skilled, higher-wage labor in surrounding communities

N/A TBD TBD No

Local Purchases Estimated local purchases expected by closed deals (accommodation investments)

Value of locally purchased inputs for construction and operation of new accommodations.

TBD TBD TBD No

Foreign Exchange Tourist arrivals from abroad

Number of arrivals to Solomon Islands ports of entry who state "Tourism" is the primary motive of their travel. Note: Direct measurement of foreign exchange impacts of accommodation investments is unlikely to be feasible, though increased tourist arrivals are a decent proxy for the net positive foreign exchange effect of increased tourism

Number TBD TBD No

Increased investment in sectors beyond tourism

None/Evaluation only/TBD

The degree to which the Solomons Islands Government applies the project-driven capabilities to sectors outside tourism. NOTE:

"Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be assessed in the course of an independent evaluation

TBD TBD TBD No

Reduced investment risk

Reduced cost of capital for transactions conducted through the project

Implementation of blended finance tools in accommodation transaction such as viability gap funding

TBD TBD TBD No

Reduced financial risk for transactions conducted through the project

Implementation of blended finance tools in accommodation transaction such as credit guarantees and political risk insurance

TBD TBD TBD No

Increased interest from other tourism investors

Number of facilitated familiarization visits

Site visits conducted by investors as a result of investment outreach

TBD TBD TBD Yes

SIG is better at solving problems which impede investment

Improved support to investors due to more targeted and coordinated engagement

Demonstrated effectiveness of individuals and institutions to identify and resolve impediments to making strategic sectoral investments

TBD TBD TBD No

Outcome Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 1

Social license is comprehensible, achievable for tourism investors

Number of land conflicts in selected project sites/regions

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Outcome Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 2

Tourism investment(s) formalized

New investments in high quality tourism accommodation which are announced

Number of new planned investments in high quality tourism accommodation which are publicly announced

Number 0 1 Yes

Investment rigidities are minimized, processes made more transparent

None/Evaluation only/TBD

NOTE: "Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be assessed in the course of an independent evaluation

Intra-government coordination to establish rules-based processes

Increased coordination and alignment between ministries/agencies at the national and provincial level on strategic priorities related to tourism investment facilitation

Example of qualitative measurement:

Consistency in policies and procedures for implicated institutions and demonstrated willingness by institutions work on common purpose

N/A N/A N/A No

Reduced time for decision making within investment facilitation due to clearly defined owners of key process, clarity on the involvement of different ministries/agencies, and lower duplication of efforts

Example of qualitative measurement:

Demonstrated ability of SIG to resolve issues as they arise in an efficient manner so they do not delay the investment process and/or discourage investment

N/A N/A N/A No

Outcome Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 2

Intra-government coordination to establish rules-based processes

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on status of pilot completion/results

Proportion of PDIA Working Group members who report being "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the group's ongoing pilot efforts

Percentage N/A N/A Yes

Output Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 1

Inclusive land governance planning

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Pre-screening for potentially investable, registered land

Registered land parcels are identified for preliminary investability assessment

Date on which MCT, implementation partner and MCC have agreed on a list of registered land parcels for preliminary exploration of investability. Note: due to sensitivities around investment facilitation processes, list of sites may not be public information.

Date N/A TBD Yes

Registered land parcels identified for preliminary investability assessment

Number of registered land parcels deemed by MCT, implementation partner and MCC to have met preestablished investment criteria.

Note: due to sensitivities around investment facilitation processes, list of sites may not be public information.

Number 0 10 Yes

Compile information on investable sites

Site-specific information sheets produced for short-list sites

Number of completed information sheets on a site's specific characteristics driving its investment potential

Number 0 TBD TBD

Social license education and facilitation

Trainings/workshops held with potential tourism investors

Number of trainings/workshops held with representatives for existing or potential tourism investors

Number 0 TBD Yes

Trainings/workshops held with

SIG

Number of trainings/workshops held with representatives of the Solomons Islands national government, provincial government, or local government

Number 0 TBD Yes

Community identification and community engagement planning visits conducted

Number of visits to project sites for identification of priority communities for social license engagement or planning visits for other community engagement efforts

Number 0 TBD Yes

Trainings/workshops held with community members

Number of social license-oriented or social-license-facilitating trainings/workshops held with community representatives

Number 0 TBD Yes

Community members participating in stakeholder engagement sessions

Number of community members participating in stakeholder engagement sessions conducted by the project

Number 0 TBD TBD

Record customary lands in select investment-adjacent communities

Registered land parcels are identified for preliminary investability assessment

Date on which MCT, implementation partner and MCC have agreed on a list of registered land parcels for preliminary exploration of investability. Note: due to sensitivities around investment facilitation processes, list of sites may not be public information.

Date N/A TBD TBD

Output Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 2

Potential parcels screened for investability

Land parcels with high potential for investability are identified based on established criteria of investability

Date on which MCT, implementation partner and MCC have agreed on a list of registered land parcels which will be moved forward to marketing phase of investment facilitation.

Note: due to sensitivities around investment facilitation processes, list of sites may not be public information.

Date TBD TBD TBD

Screening for potential investors

List of vetted and interested socially responsible investors completed

Date on which implementation partner delivers a completed list of potentially attractive tourism accommodation investors

Date TBD TBD TBD

Outreach to potential investors

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Building SIG investment facilitation capacity

Increased capacity of investment facilitation officers in engaging investors

Example of qualitative measurement:

Demonstrated effectiveness of investment officers in InvestSolomons and MCT to efficiently move an investor through the investment process.

Number of investment facilitation training events conducted

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Number of investment facilitation officers trained in relevant skills

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Output Indicators – ALTIF PROJECT, Activity 3

Problem-solving facilitation focused on tourism sector

Initial problem identification session/s held with full PDIA Working Group/team

TBD Date N/A TBD Yes

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on problem identification phase

TBD Percentage N/A N/A Yes

Government identifies key investment barriers

Conclusions of PDIA problem-diagnoses shared with MCC and SIG

TBD Date N/A TBD Yes

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on progress towards selection of pilot programs

Proportion of PDIA Working Group members who report being "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the group's progress towards selection of actionable pilot efforts

Result from Project Logic

Indicator Definition Unit Baseline Threshold

Target Year 4

Indicator Tracking

Table Indicator (Yes/No)

Outcome Indicators – FoVEP, Project-wide

Solomon Islands' natural resources generate more reliable, more sustainable revenues

None/Evaluation only/TBD

NOTE: "Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be measured in the course of an independent evaluation

TBD TBD TBD TBD

Attenuate negative environmental impacts

Forest cover in PES zones Net change in forest cover between baseline and endline (if possible, in comparison to a matched comparison group)

Percentage TBD TBD No

Avoided deforestation (in PES zones)

Number of hectares of estimated avoided deforestation

Hectares TBD TBD No

Improved enforcement of existing concession laws

Note: This indicator is not yet precisely defined, yet the specific enforcement changes expected will be explored during the programs ongoing design, particular in relation to Activity 2

Greater and more inclusive benefits from extractives (Community benefits & National benefits, i.e. Taxes)

None/Evaluation only/TBD

NOTE: "Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be measured in the course of an independent evaluation

TBD TBD TBD TBD

Outcome Indicators – FoVEP, Activity 1

Forest areas preserved or efficiently managed

Proportion of selected zones with approved forest management plans

TBD Percentage TBD TBD Yes

Diversify forest-derived economic benefits

Increased proportion of non-logging economic activities in selected zones

Note: Precise measurement of this indicator is not yet known, but will be explored prior to completion of the Threshold Program's M&E Plan

Percentage TBD TBD No

More equitable land use and governance

None/Evaluation only/TBD

NOTE: "Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be measured in the course of an independent evaluation

TBD TBD TBD TBD

Women's economic empowerment

None/Evaluation only/TBD

NOTE: "Evaluation only" may refer, for example, to indicators which are not regularly trackable during the life of the Program, but may be measured in the course of an independent evaluation

TBD TBD TBD TBD

Outcome Indicators, FoVEP, Activity 2

Regulation supportive of alternative forest value streams

Changes in regulation and/or enforcement are supportive of sustainable logging and non-logging uses of forests

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Output Indicators, FoVEP, Activity 1

Screening for areas where zones may thrive

Legally recognized and functional forest management governance structures (e.g., Project Owners) in participating project areas

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Community-led forest management zones

Targets established for "Total area of PES forest management zones"

Date on which the "Total Area of PES forest management zones" indicator acquires a target in the M&E Plan

Date N/A TBD Yes

Participation rate of women in forest governance agreements

Proportion of women signatories to signed forest management agreements

Number 0 TBD Yes

Signed agreements with forest management areas

Signed agreements with forest management areas for participation in PES projects.

Number 0 TBD Yes

Total Area of PES forest management zones

Total forest surface area identified under signed agreements for participation in PES projects. As described in the project description, land identification will occur in a phased approach after signing of agreements with forest management areas.

Hectares 0 6000 Yes

Accredited PES First PES accreditation achieved TBD Date N/A Yes

Number of PES accreditations achieved

TBD Number N/A Yes

Number of hectares under PES accreditation

TBD Hectares 0 6000 Yes

Site-specific forest management plans

Completed forest management plans

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Alternative livelihoods support

Number of small businesses supported

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Number of new income generating activities launched

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Alternative livelihood trainings conducted

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Community members trained in relation to alternative livelihood opportunities

TBD Number 0 TBD Yes

Number of alternative livelihoods trainees

Entrepreneurs, business owners or other trainees trained with skills relevant to their existing forest-derived businesses

Number 0 TBD Yes

Community engagement & governance technical assistance

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Transparent plans for PES benefit sharing

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Community mobilization for

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

women's economic empowerment

PES demonstrates sustainable, equitable approach to forest management

TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Output Indicators, FoVEP, Activity 2

Forest management (PDIA) reform team (established)

Forest management reform team/s established

Date on which (at least one) forest management reform team holds its first meeting with a quorum of agreed members

Date N/A TBD Yes

Completed project plan for the PDIA Working Group/team

TBD Date TBD Yes

Diagnosis of shared barriers to management of logging sector

Initial problem identification session/s held with full PDIA Working Group/team

TBD Date TBD Yes

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on problem identification phase

TBD Percentage N/A Yes

Conclusions of PDIA problem-diagnoses shared with MCC and

SIG

TBD Date N/A TBD Yes

Iterative tasks targeting identified problems

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on progress towards selection of tasks

Proportion of PDIA Working Group members who report being "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the group's progress towards selection of actionable, problem-driven tasks

Satisfaction of PDIA team members on status of task completion/results

Proportion of PDIA Working Group members who report being "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the group's ongoing tasks