Grycenkov et al_disag_v4.pdf

National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

NESDIS LEO End-State Fully Disaggregated Architecture Study

NOAA/NESDIS/LEO1, NOAA/NESDIS/OSAAP2,

The Aerospace Corporation3

19th Annual Symposium On Operational Environmental Satellite Systems January 8-12, 2023

V. Grycenkov1, S. Kalluri1, T. Walsh1, S. Boukabara2, F. W. Gallagher III2, D.

Spencer2, D. St Jean2 , K. Hanifen3, S. Schnee3

Victor.N.Grycenkov@noaa.gov

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• Overview

• Background

• LEO Program

• LEO Formulation Strategy

– Concept, methodology, studies, next steps

• Upcoming Activities

– QuickSounder

– Sensor studies

• Summary

Agenda

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• The current low earth orbit program of record is called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and will include two more launches with mission ending in approximately 2038

• The future next-generation LEO Program of Record is the Office of LEO Observations

– A disaggregate system o Note: No decision has been made about the level of disaggregation in the LEOS constellation

– Requirements being drafted now

– Program Milestone 1 planned for mid-2023

• Pathfinder for LEOS: “QuickSounder”

Overview

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• NOAA relies on a family of systems in low earth orbit to perform its mission

– Managed (e.g., JPSS)

– Partnered (e.g., MetOP)

– Leveraged (e.g., ESA/Sentinel missions)

• The backbone for NOAA’s low earth orbit operational environmental satellite system is called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)

• The LEO orbit provides:

– Global measurements

– Not bound by a specific orbit geometry or altitude

Background

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NOAA relies on and will continue to rely on a heterogeneous family of missions to obtain LEO observations.

This family of systems includes cooperation with domestic federal entities, industry and international partners.

Background

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– 15 U.S. Code § 313. The Secretary of Commerce shall have charge of the forecasting of weather, the issue of storm warnings

– Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 & 2018 Amendment o Sec. 103 - NOAA is required to establish a tornado warning improvement and extension program and develop better forecasts, predictions, and warnings.

o Sec. 104 - NOAA is required to maintain a project to improve hurricane forecasting.

o Sec. 106 - The NOAA is required to prioritize observation data requirements key to ensuring weather forecasting capabilities, evaluating data and information to meet those requirements, identify data gaps, and determine options to address those gaps.

o Sec. 302 - Government can purchase weather data through contracts with commercial providers o Section 301 amendment: (c) NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE ARCHITECTURE.—

(1) The Under Secretary shall analyze, test, and plan the procurement of future data sources and satellite architectures, identified in the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture Study that—

(A) lower the cost of observations used to meet the NOAA’s mission requirements;

(B) disaggregate current satellite systems, where appropriate;

(C) include new, value-adding technological advancements; and

(D) improve weather forecasting and predictions.

LEO Program

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• In FY 2022:

– NOAA proposed the establishment of the Office of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Observations, which set the stage for managing future low earth and medium earth orbit satellite observations as a loosely coupled program

• FY 2023:

– Rename the JPSS Program Office (JPSS) as the Office of Low Earth Orbit Observations (LEO) o LEO manages two budget PPAs:

• Polar Weather Satellites (PWS: JPSS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO)

LEO Program

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• In FY 2022, NOAA began conceptualizing a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Program, setting the stage to manage future low and medium earth orbit satellite observations.

– Looking to:

o Put capabilities where and when we want them, enabled by shorter development timelines and more frequent launches.

o Provide more capability at a better price, leveraging smaller and more capable instruments and satellites.

o Achieve greater agility to incorporate continuous advancement, using new business models.

A disaggregated architecture is expected to provide efficient and quick access to space; launch what we want, when we want, where we want it

LEO Formulation Strategy

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• Determine a cost-effective, disaggregated constellation in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to meet a set of global weather study requirements over a 20-year mission duration

• Steps:

– Conceptual Phase:

o Determining how to become more agile and responsive to changes in user needs and partner capabilities.

– Methodology:

o User engagement working with NESDIS to help shape requirements for future development o Program Level Requirements identify types of LEO observations, their spatial and temporal characteristics

– Studies o Analysis of options for cost benefits

LEO Formulation Strategy

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• Confirm user needs, and develop aspirational objectives and threshold (minimum) requirements

• Research through Broad Agency Announcement studies and independent government studies to identify new technical capabilities

– Assess technology trends, gaps, and develop road maps for LEO observations

• Develop system architecture and operations concept to demonstrate feasibility of meeting objectives

• Assess existing/planned partner missions and commercial data that can potentially satisfy program requirements and develop plans for their exploitation by NESDIS

• Develop acquisition strategies to meet the needs of the LEO mission

Conceptual Phase Activities

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Develop Requirements

Constellation Size & Orbit Optimization

Cost & Budget Profile

Replenishment Launch Cadence

• Define observational requirements tied to products and services through user engagement

• Pair requirements with instruments

• Determine constellation size need to meet update rate requirements

• Concept Design Center analysis of satellite configuration

– Bus, comms, launch vehicle, etc.

• Calculate replenishment rate to maintain each constellation's functional availability

• Calculate lifecycle cost of 20-year mission

Satellite Configurations

Methodology

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• Cost Benefit Analysis. Determine the most cost-effective, disaggregated constellation in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to meet a set of global weather study requirements over a 20-year mission duration

• Study supplements lessons learned on the costs/benefits of aggregated programs (JPSS) and disaggregated pathfinder program (QuickSounder)

• Study outputs include;

– Constellation size and orbits

– Satellite launch schedule for constellation replenishment

– Instrument and satellite bus subsystem size, weight, power

– Launch vehicle options

– Lifecycle cost

Example constellation assessments optimized for coverage and refresh

Constellation Studies

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QuickSounder Satellite Concept

Establish the LEOS Program

Continue User Engagement

Refine architecture studies

Path-find ways to exploit commercial advances in “New Space” with the QuickSounder mission

Award Broad Area Announcements (BAAs) for technology demonstration and capabilities assessment

•Hyperspectral microwave sounding •3D winds

Award Phase A studies for next generation microwave (SMBA) and infrared sounder

Next Steps for LEOS

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• QuickSounder (QS) is an effort to demonstrate NESDIS’ intent to implement an agile, disaggregated architecture using small satellites

– From ATP to launch in ~3 years

– Increased risk tolerance for individual mission elements

• QS goal is to determine best practices for leveraging elements of commercial space to inform LEOS

– Small spacecraft manufacturing leading to procurement of “off-the-shelf” spacecraft

– Venture class launch services

– Flight operations and data routing services

– Acquisition strategies

– Appropriate levels of insight/oversight, for both vendor and federal activities

– Focusing on the essential programmatic requirements for performance and verification, consistent with project level risk management plan

• Validate cost and schedule models

• Prove small satellites can provide useful observations to meet mission requirements

• Demonstrate MW sounding capability of a small-sat at operational performance levels in an early-morning orbit

QuickSounder Mission Formulation Objectives

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Microwave Sounding Observations Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profiles Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profiles

Orbital Characteristics Polar Sun-synchronous Altitude: 824km +/- 17 km Local Time Ascending Node (LTAN): 1730 +/- 10 min Inclination: 98.7 degrees

Launch Readiness Date: December 31, 2025

Mission Life: 2-year minimum; 3-year design

Mission Class: Category 3, Streamlined Class D

Milestone Decision Authority: NESDIS AA

QuickSounder Mission Characteristics

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Flight Segment

• Commercial RSDO Spacecraft

• ATMS Engineering Development Unit (EDU)

Launch Segment

• NASA KSC/LSP Provided Venture Class LV

Ground Segment

• Mission Operations: Commercial Service

• Mission Data Transport: Commercial Service

• Mission Data Processing and Dissemination:

NESDIS systems

QuickSounder Mission Segments

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• Sounder for Microwave Brightness and Analysis (SMBA) is the first sensor in a series of LEO missions to fly in a disaggregate architecture

• RFI:

– https://sam.gov/opp/7fc47e5bb7c84f2291b3095fb63c42a0/view

• RFP Release – Late February 2023

• RFP Responses Due – Late March 2023 (one month response time)

• Contract Award – October 2023

• Final Study Review – October 2024

Note: The above are notional schedule dates. Please continue to monitor http://www.sam.gov and official correspondences related to this solicitation for official dates and updates to the schedule.

Next Generation MW Sounder Phase A Studies (1) https://sam.gov/opp/7fc47e5bb7c84f2291b3095fb63c42a0/view

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• NESDIS established the Office of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Observations

– Plan, acquire and manage global measurements for NOAA users as an enterprise

• A microwave sounding mission (QuickSounder) is currently planned to provide global microwave sounding measurements to help inform a planned disaggregated architecture

• A study is underway to understand the next generation microwave sounding mission (SMBA) that will provide global microwave sounding measurements as the first post-JPSS instrument for a disaggregated architecture

• The LEO mission program level requirements covering all types of measurements will be developed and baselined in 2023

• Several studies are ongoing to determine the optimum end state of LEO architecture

Summary

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Backup

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Status

• December 2022 – Successful DOC Milestone-2 review established baseline

• December 2022 – ATMS EDU new modification awarded

• January 2023 – Release of QuickSounder draft Request for Offer (RFO) through Rapid Spacecraft Development Office (RSDO)

QuickSounder Schedule and Status

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Optimize constellations from perspective of end-user benefits (vice optimizing constellations to satisfy requirements)

• Quantify benefits/synergies of simultaneous observations from aggregated constellations (i.e., multiple instruments per satellite)

• Assess cost and user benefits of the trade between improving constellation size vs. improving instrument performance

– e.g., is it more cost effective to improve revisit rate or spatial/spectral resolution?

Develop Constellation Concepts

Model Lifecycle Costs Score Against User

Benefits

Conduct Cost/Benefit Analysis

R ef in e co n st el la ti o n d es ig n s

Next Steps

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Nearly every product category across the thematic areas in the NESDIS Level Requirements relies on LEO observational measurements

IR/MW/RO Soundings

MW

Imagery

Altimetr y

RADAR

Imagery

LIDA

R

UV Imagery

LEO Program Level Requirements (PLR) VIS/NIR/IR Imagery

Scatteromet ry

Background: Serving User Needs

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• User Engagement (UE) through workshops, listening sessions at conferences, and proving ground & risk reduction activities enable us to better understand

– How is the current data used?

– What are the impacts of current data?

– What enhancements could we do current as well as future data?

• Four workshops were held focused on MW and IR Soundings, atmospheric chemistry and VIIRS applications:

– https://tinyurl.com/amuy8upt

User Engagement Workshops https://tinyurl.com/amuy8upt

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• As the requirements reflect, SMBA will serve as the backbone microwave sounder for the LEOS program

• Balance the need for a backbone instrument with the desire to be flexible on tailoring requirements and to realize significant cost and schedule savings

– We are very open to and interested in feedback

– SOW, PSD, and IMAR reflect NOAA/NASA team’s initial expectations. We are open to suggestions on these expectations

• Move instrument to at least SRR/SDR

– Desire to move instrument to PDR or CDR

Next Generation MW Sounder Phase A Studies (2)

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• NOAA awarded several contracts to industry via a Broad Agency Announcement in 2019 to explore integrated mission and instrument design concepts to form the basis for future acquisitions.

• SounderSat BAA Industry Studies

– 15 LEO Sounder Studies o 4 Microwave Sounder, 3 Infrared Sounder, 8 Mission Concept studies

• SounderSat BAAs covered a wide trade space, setting Threshold, Target, and Objective requirements for Vertical Temperature and Moisture profiles.

– TRL varied widely across the types of sensors that were studied

BAA Studies

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• Sounding instruments explored in the BAA span a range of capabilities, but generally fell into three classes based on waveband coverage:

– MW HIGH – full ATMS channel set, and may include higher frequency bands

– MW MID – reduced channels, drops lower frequency bands (K,Ka) in favor of higher frequency channels

– MW LOW – limited channels, usually covering F, G, and W bands

– IR-HIGH - SWIR, MWIR, LWIR (3.92 – 15.38 microns), hyperspectral

– IR-MID – SW+MW, MW+LW

– IR-LOW - Single band – range specific to science need

• Instrument calibration accuracy, spatial sampling, NEDT, and bandwidth correspond loosely to class

• As expected, High performance sensors have larger SWAP compared to with sensors with Low capabilities

• Can fly on a variety of smallsats and cubesats depending upon SWAP

Overview of Sounder Studies From BAA