Amendment 09 RTIS - Nov 2020 final.pdf

UNCLASSIFIED

Strategic Trends Research Initiative (STRI) Research Topic Information Session

(“Industry Day”) for HDTRA1-20-S-0002

Strategic Trends and Effects Department, Strategic Trends Division (SI-STT)

November 17, 2020

Blackboard Etiquette

General:

Camera/video use is optional, but preferred Keep chat box open for notifications and posing questions Participant microphones will be muted during except Q&A segments If you get disconnected, simply rejoin (no need to leave message in chat)

Asking Questions:

Speakers will answer questions at specific points in the presentation Use the “raise your hand” feature or post a question in the chat box If you are not actively asking a question, please mute your microphone

Introductions

Sponsor: Strategic Integration Directorate, Strategic Trends and Effects Department (SI-ST) Mr. Robert Peters, Department Chief Mr. Donald Wenzlick, Strategic Trends Division Chief (SI-STT) Ms. Jennifer Perry, Research Coordinator (Program Manager/ Primary POC) Mr. Michael Sims, Program Analyst (Alternate Program Manager) Ms. Janice Atkinson, Acquisition Administration Support (Contractor)

Contracts: Acquisition, Contracts, and Logistics Directorate, Contracts Department, Mission Support Contracts Division (AL-ACB)

Ms. Linda Mulligan, Division Chief, Mission Support Contracts Ms. Rorri Waters, Contracting Officer, Team Lead Ms. Lauralea Gilpin, Senior Contracting Specialist (Contractor) Ms. Jamese Promise, Senior Contracting Specialist (Contractor)

Agenda

This “industry day” serves as a mechanism to share information about DTRA Strategic Trends’ FY21 applied research requirements and specific topics of interest as outlined in HDTRA1-20-S-0002 BAA (Amendment 8). The submission process and related requirements will also be explained.

Welcome/Introductions SI-STT and STRI Overview BAA Thrusts Discussion (Studies, Dialogues, and Tabletop Exercises) Review of BAA/Call Submission Process/Requirements General Q&A

Generate timely, credible, actionable insights into emerging threats within DTRA’s mission space. Enable and guide warfighter understanding of the range of military operations in an era of Great Power Competition.

Activities: Research, Trends Analysis, Events

[Strategic Trends Division, STT]

Department & Division Missions

The Strategic Trends and Effects Department (SI-ST) identifies future challenges for DTRA regarding emerging threats, provides advice regarding mitigation approaches, and assesses the collective effects of DTRA’s operations, activities, and investments (OAIs) within the operating environment.

Two primary responsibilities:

Provide Agency leadership with a holistic assessment of progress toward achieving Agency objectives and provide recommendations to inform planning, execution, resource allocation, and measures of effectiveness.

Activities: Operational Research and Statistical Analysis, Assessments

[Strategic Effects Division, STE]

Focus on National Defense Strategy Priorities

Lines of Effort:

Build a More Lethal Force Strengthen Alliances and Attract New Partners

Objectives:

Maintaining favorable regional balances of power… Defending allies from military aggression and bolstering partners against coercion… Dissuading, preventing, or deterring state adversaries and non-state actors from acquiring, proliferating, or using WMD

Competition below threshold of armed conflict Acute competition directly below threshold of armed conflict Five to 10 years beyond the current fiscal year of execution

(Approximate time horizon 2026-2031)

Capability/technology focus areas:

Hypersonic weapon breakthroughs and impacts on strategic stability

Advances in chemical and biological weapons

Militarization of space

Advances in artificial intelligence/machine learning

Directed energy weapons

Advanced unmanned/ autonomous systems concepts of operation

UNCLASSIFIED 8

Strategic Trends Research Initiative (aka “Story”)

Encompasses studies, Track 1.5 or 2 strategic dialogues, and tabletop exercises (FY20: 7 studies, 9 dialogues, 2 TTXs)

Prioritizes UNCLASSIFIED research, but classified work may be undertaken in some circumstances

Provides analytic products tailored to a US Government (primarily DTRA/DoD) audience from midlevel to senior personnel with diverse expertise and a range of interests

Focus: Delivering operationally relevant, credible, timely, and actionable research for DTRA and the Warfighter community that is aligned against National Defense Strategy priorities in order to inform future operations, activities, and investments to mitigate future battlefield challenges

Goals: Year-by-year advancement of research objectives, synchronization and alignment of all projects against mission priorities, and achievement of actionable recommendations to enable DTRA/DoD to counter future threats

Award Type and Period of Performance (PoP)

Award Types:

Given the need for timely research, the period of performance (PoP) shall not exceed twelve (12) months from the effective date of award

Preferred PoP for studies is no more than nine (9) months to maximize opportunities for operational relevance

In order to ensure year-by-year advancement and maximize efficiencies, DTRA will consider up to three option periods (for a total of three years) for dialogue and TTX research efforts

Discussant: Contracting Representative

Contracts MIPRs Interagency Orders

Grants NO

Deliverables

All projects funded under the BAA have the same core deliverables:

Monthly technical and financial progress reports Briefings (kickoff meeting, midpoint IPR, and outbrief) Final financial report Final closeout report Final 12 to 15-page technical report (not including appendices) with accompanying 1 to 3-page standalone executive summary

External Publications:

Are not acceptable substitutes for the final technical report Requirement to consult SI-STT prior to publishing findings resulting from the research in any academic journals, media outlets, or online forums, including websites DTRA will notify the research of any required public release processes

Enduring Research Focus Areas

Identify the utility of deeper, more meaningful relationships with existing allies, partners, and establish new relationships with non-traditional partners as a mechanism to compete against key strategic competitors

Understand the implications of emerging capabilities – with specific emphasis on those developed or used by key competitors and current and potential adversaries – on the United States’ ability to maintain operational advantage and project power in order to generate insights and develop recommendations that can inform future U.S. operations, activities, and investments

Identify emerging WMD threats of concern for the future battlespace, methodologies to assess and counter them, and consider implications for future U.S. operations, activities, and investments

Thrust Area Discussant: Donald Wenzlick

Thrust Area 1:

Studies Focused on Competition with Revisionist Powers

Research Thrust Areas

Objective: Generate insights and develop recommendations that can inform future operations, activities, and investments in the counter WMD realm

Thrust Area 3:

Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues with Allies, Partners, and

Non-Traditional Partners

Thrust Area 2:

Studies Focused on Assessing and Countering Emerging WMD-Related

Threats

Thrust Area 4:

Tabletop Exercises (TTXs) Focused on Competition with Revisionist

Powers

Thrust Area 1: Studies Focused on Competition with Revisionist Powers

Of particular interest are studies that:

Explore and analyze how revisionist powers might exploit advances in technology Examine the role alliance structures play in shifting the balance of power in key strategic regions Explore the potential role, viability, and utility of specific risk reduction tools Consider, provide, or develop models that reveal dynamics of the interactions between developments in science, technology, and the ability of potential adversaries to project power

Need: Studies that provide insight into key competitors’ strategies, emerging (including novel and non-traditional) capabilities, and consideration of potential implications for the United States’ ability to maintain its operational advantage and project power in the 2026 to 2031 timeframe

Thrust Area 2: Studies Focused on Assessing and Countering Emerging WMD-Related Threats

Of particular interest are studies that provide insight into emerging WMD-related threats and:

Provide methodologies for assessing and quantifying the threats Provide insight into TTPs to counter the threats Explore novel forecasting and predictive modeling techniques to better understand the threats Incorporate simulation-based analysis to measure risk and identify vulnerabilities associated with the threats Identifying opportunities to counter weapons development and use (or threats of use) on the battlefield

Need: Studies that provide insight into emerging threats that characterize the future battlespace in order to generate insights and develop recommendations that inform future U.S. operations, activities, and investments to counter NDS priority actors

Track 1.5 / 2 Definition: Unofficial, bilateral, or multilateral meetings that provide an opportunity for American experts to discuss important, and sometimes sensitive, strategic issues with their foreign counterparts in a private, open environment, outside of official diplomatic channels (Track 1)

Thrust Area 3: Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues with Allies, Partners, and Non-Traditional Partners

Need: Dialogues that provide a venue and engagement framework for structured, but informal discussions…that can help the United States develop deeper, more meaningful relationships with existing allies and partners and/or establish new relationships with non-traditional partners as a mechanism to compete against revisionist powers especially in key strategic regions, including, but not limited to, the Indo-Pacific

Track Environment Official Government Participation

Non-Government/ Expert Participation

1 Official Yes No

1.5 Unofficial Yes (in private capacities) Yes

2 Unofficial No Yes

Thrust Area 3: Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues with Allies, Partners, and Non-Traditional Partners

Dialogues should address issues that fall within DTRA’s purview:

Countering WMD Deterrence Counter/non-proliferation efforts Risk reduction Strategic security, etc.

Interest is not limited to bilateral dialogues; also interested in unique trilateral or quadrilateral dialogues that allow for discussion among allies and/or partners with overlapping interests and concerns

Key Interest: Dialogues that have the potential to build from year to year, advancing the discussion on important strategic issues (Contract Option Periods)

Thrust Area 4: Tabletop Exercises (TTXs) Focused on Competition with Revisionist Powers

Need: TTXs that provide an experiential learning platform to strengthen the DTRA workforce’s ability to:

Understand the multi-faceted and complex challenges facing the Joint Force Recognize requirements that may be placed on a Combatant Command in a crisis or conflict situation Anticipate opportunities for DTRA to support

Challenges to address could include:

Revisionist powers’ strategies, operational concepts, and emerging capabilities The intersection between WMD and other threat domains

Each exercise should:

Draw important insights and implications for the United States’ ability to maintain its operational military advantages Incorporate a focus on the DTRA mission space

Submission Processes

Two-Phase Submission Process (electronically via email) Phase I – White Paper submission

1) Technical Concept (3-5 pages)

2) Cost Summary (1 page)

Phase II – Proposal submission

1) Technical proposal (not to exceed 10 pages)

2) Cost Spreadsheet (with budget narrative)

3) Statement of Research Work

4) Supplemental Information

Review Process:

Technical Evaluation Panel: SI-ST personnel and advisors (Gov/Mil Only) Notification of Phase 1 (white paper) decision: 30 days or less Feedback will be provided via email

BAA notice and amendments provide full instruction regarding submission guidelines

Discussant: Contracting Representative

Dates to Remember

This DTRA BAA is open-ended, but for priority FY21 funding consideration, please bear in mind the following review periods:

Project Type/Thrust Review Begins Studies (Thrusts 1 and 2) January 5, 2021 Strategic Dialogues (Thrust 3) January 12, 2021 Tabletop Exercises (Thrust 4) January 19, 2021

Papers received after the beginning of each review period will be evaluated, but may not receive priority consideration.

DTRA will institute cut off dates as needed.

Cut-Off Date for BAA Questions: December 18, 2020

Contact and Submission Emails

Thrust Area 1: Studies Focused on Competition With Revisionist Powers dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta1@mail.mil

Thrust Area 2: Studies Focused on Assessing and Countering Emerging WMD-Related Threats dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta2@mail.mil

Thrust Area 3: Track 1.5 and Track 2 Strategic Dialogues with Allies, Partners, and Non-Traditional Partners dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta3@mail.mil

Thrust Area 4: Tabletop Exercises Focused on Competition with Revisionist Powers dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-ta4@mail.mil

Admin. Correspondence & Questions:

dtra.belvoir.si.mbx.hdtra1-stri-adm@mail.mil

Q&A