EG4ALL PAD 20170316 FINAL.pdf

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This Project Appraisal Document describes a proposed $210 million project called Economic Growth For All (EG4ALL) to be implemented in Senegal from 2018 to 2023. The project aims to sustainably reduce poverty and undernourishment through five activities: value chain services, nutritious food system services, entrepreneurship and vocational development services, policy systems services, and sustainable ecosystem and fisheries management services.

Value chain services will focus on developing technical packages, strengthening market linkages for micro, small and medium enterprises, and expanding innovative financing approaches in agricultural value chains. Nutritious food system services will analyze nutrition issues, strengthen local private sector capacity in food security, and facilitate access to and use of nutritious foods. Entrepreneurship and vocational development services will support business and technical skills. Policy systems services will work to advance reforms and strengthen implementation. Sustainable ecosystem services will promote sustainable fisheries management and related livelihood opportunities.

The project will operate in Senegal's Feed The Future Zone of Influence, engaging 150,000 households and potentially benefiting 1.5 million people. It aims to increase average incomes by 20% and reduce poverty and stunting by 15% through integrated, market-based interventions linking agriculture, nutrition, jobs and policy goals. The proposed implementing period is 2018-2023 with a budget range of $176-210 million.

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Text version

USAID Senegal – Economic Growth For All

(FY2018‐2023)

Project Appraisal Document

25 Feb 2017

PROCUREMENT SENSITIVE

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD i

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD ii

LIST OF ACRONYMS

AAD Activity Approval Memos

ACF Action Contre la Faim

AETR

Agriculture Education Training Research

AGCLIRAgriculturalCommercial,Legal,and
InstitutionalReform

AMEP

Activity Monitoring and Evaluation Plans

ANCAR

AgenceNationaledeConseilAgricole
etRural
ANIDAAgenceNationaled’Insertionetde
DéveloppementAgricole

ANPEJ

AgenceNationalepourlaPromotion
del’EmploidesJeunes

ANSD

Agencenationaledelastatistiqueet
deladémographie

AOR Assistance Office Representative

ASPRODEB

AssociationSénégalaisepourla
PromotionduDéveloppementàla

Base

BDS Business Development Services

CBSP Community Based Service Provider

CCIR Cross‐cutting Intermediate Result

CDCS

Country Development Cooperation Strategy

CFA West African Francs

CGER

Centres de Gestion et d’Economie Rurale

CIFACentreInterprofessionnelde
FormationdesAgriculteurs

CINSERE

ClimateInformationServicesfor
IncreasedResilienceand

Productivity

CIS Climate Information Services

CLM

Cellule de Lutte contre la Malnutrition

CLPA Commité Locale de Peche Artisinal

CNCAS Credit Agricole du Sénégal

CNCRConseilNationaldesConcertationset
deCoopérationRuraux

COMFISH

CollaborativeManagementfora
SustainableFisheriesFuturein

Senegal

CONGAD

Conseilledesorganizationnon‐
governementd’appuyiau

Développement

COR Contract Office Representative

CRODT Oceanographic Research Center

DAP Dept of Analysis Forecasting and Statistics

DCA Development Credit Authority

DO Development Objective

DPM Directorate of Marine Fisheries

DPSP

DirectorateforSurveillanceandthe
ProtectionofSurveillance

ECOWAS

EconomicCommunityOfWest
AfricanStates

EG4ALL Economic Growth for All

EGO Economic Growth Office

ENSA

Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Agriculture

ERA Education, Research, Agriculture

ESPS

L’Enquete de Suivi de la Pauvreté au Sénégal

FTF Feed the Future

FY Financial Year

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFSS Global Food Security Strategy

GIS Geographic Information System

GLAAS Global Acquisition & Assistance System

GOLD Govt for Local Development

GOS Govt of Senegal

GTDRSA

DonorsGrouponRuralDevelopment
andFoodSecurity

HR Human Resources

ICT

Information Communication Technology

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute

IP Implementing Partner

ISDP Integrated Service Delivery Project

ISFAR

L'Institut de Formation Agricole et Rurale

ISRA Institut Senegalaise de Recherche Agricole

ITA Institut de Technologie Alimentaire

IUUF Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported Fishing

JICA

Japanese International Cooperation Agency

LEO Leveraging Economic Opportunities

LOASP Agro‐Sylvo Pastoral Orientation Law

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD ii

LTAEB

Lycée Technique Agricole Émile Badiane

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MAER

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Equipment

MCC Millenium Challenge Corporation

MEL Monitoring Evaluation and Learning

MPA Marine Protected Areas

MSME Micro, Small, Medium Enterprise

NERICA New Rice (variety) for Africa

NFSS Nutritious Food System Services

NGO Non Govt Organization

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

OSC Office of Security Cooperation

PAD Project Appraisal Document

PAPA Projet d'Appui aux Politiques Agricoles

PBS Population Based Survey

PCE Projet de Croissance Économique

PD Project Description

PDIDAS

ProjetdeDéveloppementInclusifet
Durabledel’AgribusinessauSénégal

PDP Project Design Plan

PERA

Public Expenditure Review in Agriculture

PMP Project Management Plan

POPAS

LaPlateformedesorganisations
professionnellesdel'agroalimentaire
duSénégal

PPP Public Private Partnership

PPR Performance Plan and Report

PRACAS

Programmederelanceet
d’accélérationdelacadencede
l’agricultureauSénégal

PRN Nutrition Strengthening Project

PRODAC Programme des Domaines Agricoles Communautaires

PSE Plan Senegal Emergent

PYD Positive Youth Development

ReSAKSS

RegionalStrategicAnalysisand
KnowledgeSupportSystem

SAED

Sociétéd'aménagementet
d'exploitationdesterresdudelta

SAGIC

AcceleratedGrowthandIncreased
CompetitivenessEconomicGrowth

Project

SBCC

Social & Behavior Change Communications

SEM

Sustainable Ecosystems Management

SENWASH Senegal Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

SFZ Southern Forest Zone

SGO Sabadola Gold Organization

SISMAR

SociétéIndustrielleSahéliennede
Mécaniques,MatérielsAgricoleset
deReprésentations

SME Small medium Enterprise

SMS Short Message Service

SODEFITEX

SocietédeDéveloppementdes
FibresTextiles

SOW Scope of Work

SPRING

StrengtheningPartnerships,Results,
inNutritionGlobally

SRV Senegal River Valley

TBD To Be Decided

UCAD Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar

UNICEF

UnitedNationsInternational
Children’sEmergencyFund

USAID

US Agency for International Development

USD US dollar

USG US Govt

VC Value Chain

WASH Water Sanitation and Hygiene

WHO World Health Organization

WTO World Trade Organization

ZOI Zone of Influence

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD iii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure1.YouthUnemploymentrates(GlobalEconomy.com,WorldBank).....................................................4
Figure2.CostofStartingaBusiness(GlobalEconomy.com,WorldBank).....................................................5
Figure3.ProjectResultsFramework............................................................................................................................11
Figure4.FTFZoneofInfluence,includingcoastalCOMFISHzones.................................................................15
Figure5.USAIDSenegalEG4ALLPADActivities......................................................................................................17
Figure6.CriticalinterlinkingofcomponentstoeffectMSMEdevelopment................................................31
Figure7.Precipitationvariabilityovertheperiod2000‐2015(Badiane,2016)........................................79
Figure8.YouthUnemploymentrates(GlobalEconomy.com,WorldBank)...................................................87
Figure9.CostofStartingaBusiness(GlobalEconomy.com,WorldBank)...................................................89
Figure10.StrategicFrameworkforMSMEGrowthandDevelopment...........................................................93

LIST OF TABLES

Table1.AspectsofPlanSenegalEmergentaddressedbyEG4ALL..................................................................55
Table2.ActivityTransitionsandProposedProcurementMechanisms.........................................................56
Table3.Non‐competitivemechanismstobeprocuredunderthisPAD.........................................................57
Table4.Currentandfutureactivitycosts(LowBudgetScenario)...................................................................68
Table5.Currentandfutureactivitycosts(HighBudgetScenario)..................................................................69
Table6.TraditionnalFilieresystemapproachversusNaatalMbaycontractingagricultureapproach
(source:LEOreport49,Casestudiesonfacilitatingsystemicchange)..........................................................80

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD iv

Contents

1 Purpose

2 Context

2.1 Political, Social, Commercial

2.2 USAID/EGO Engagement

3 Problem Statement

4 Project Approach

4.1 Theory of Change

4.2 Project Principles

4.3 Assumptions/Risks

4.4 Geographic Approach

5 Project Description

5.1 Activity 1: Value Chain Services

5.2 Activity 2: Nutritious Food System Services

5.3 Activity 3: Entrepreneurship and Vocational Development Services

5.4 Activity 4: Policy Systems Services

5.5 Activity 5: Sustainable Ecosystem and Fisheries Management Services

6 Alignment with United States Government and GOS Priorities

6.1 Relationship to GFSS and CDCS

6.2 Linkages with USAID Activities

6.3 Linkage with GOS Priorities

7 Project Management Approach

7.1 Project activities and procurement plan

7.2 Management and Staffing

7.3 Summary Financial Plan and Cost Estimate

8 Project Monitoring Evaluation and Learning Plan (PMELP)

9 References

10 Annexes

10.1 Financial Plan

10.2 Climate Risk Analysis

10.3 Project Logic Model

USAID SENEGAL EG4ALL PAD v

10.4 Summary of Analyses

10.4.1 Senegal ‐ Country Overview

10.4.2 Agriculture Sector Analysis

10.4.3 FTF Value Chain Activities, Achievements and Remaining Challenges

10.4.4 Water Management Schemes in Senegal

10.4.5 MSME Study

10.4.6 Environment

10.4.7 Agriculture Sector Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Options Analysis

10.4.8 Gender Analysis Study

10.4.9 Expanding and Enhancing Nutrition‐Sensitive Agriculture

10.4.10 Youth in Agriculture Assessment

10.5 EGO Policy Matrix

10.6 Business Enabling Environment and Competitiveness Program (PREAC)

10.7 Climate Risk Screening Matrix

10.8 PDP Approval Memo

1 Purpose

ThefollowingUSAIDSenegal–EconomicGrowthOffice
ProjectAppraisalDocument(PAD)describesEconomic
GrowthForAll(EG4ALL)2018‐2023,anintegrated
investmentthatwillaidSenegal,asafocuscountryunder
theUnitedStatesGovernment’s(USG)FeedtheFuture
Initiative(FTF),tomakefurtheradvancementsalongits
foodsecurityandagriculturaldevelopmenttrajectory.
ThepurposeoftheUSAIDSenegal–EconomicGrowth
ForAll(EG4ALL)2018‐2023$210millionProjectisto
sustainablyreducepovertyandundernourishmentby
amongbeneficiaries(SeeAnnex10.3).
EG4ALLisconsistentwiththecurrentGovernmentof
Senegal(GOS)mediumandlong‐termeconomicand
socialpolicyframework,calledthePlanSenegalEmergent
(PSE).Inparticular,itrespondstothePSE’sfirstthrust–
structuraltransformationoftheeconomyandgrowth.
EG4ALLwillcontributetoUSAID/SenegalCountry
DevelopmentCooperationStrategy(CDCS)Development
Goal1:tosustainablyreducepovertyandmalnutritionin
theZoneofInfluence(ZOI)1.Indesigningtheactivitiesto
achievethepurpose,theagriculturaleconomyis
recognizedasthemostimmediatemeansofgenerating
incomeandemploymentforlargenumbersofyoung
people.Thus,inalignmentwiththeU.S.Government
GlobalFoodSecurityStrategy(GFSS),theprojectbuilds
resiliencethroughlinkingeffortstoaccelerate
agriculturalgrowthandimprovenutrition,andmore
deliberatelytocreatejobsforyoungpeopleand
opportunitiesforwomen.Sustainableecosystemservicesarealsorecognizedasafoundationfor
economicgrowth.
EG4ALLisanessentialnextstepinexpandingagroupofcurrentactivitiesthatwillimprove
householdincomes,consumptionofnutritiousdiets,andenvironmentaloutcomes.EG4ALLisbuilt
uponthepremisethatinordertosustainablyreducepovertyandmalnutrition,theseactivities
mustbeadvancedconcurrentlyinordertoensurethateachdevelopinacomplementaryor
synergisticfashion.Undertakenseparately,lackofonestreamcouldundercutpotentialforsuccess
inothers.

1 The current CDCS is valid through October 2, 2017. Under this CDCS, the Development Goal 1 is: Increased Inclusive Economic Growth. USAID/Senegal is in the process of developing a new CDCS. The new Goal 1 will be revised to something similar to what is included in this PAD.

ProjectPurpose:
Sustainablyreducepovertyand
undernourishmentamongbeneficiaries.

Coverage:

SenegalRiverValley,SouthernForest
Zone,CoastalArtisanalFisheries–9
AdministrativeRegions
PriorityCrops:
Cereals,Horticulture,Fishers,Livestock
PriorityPopulations:
Childrenunder5
Womenofreproductiveage(15‐49)
Youth(15upwards)
Farmers(maleandfemale)

Methods:

Agriculturalproductivityimprovement,
MSME/Employmentcreation,

Technical/Vocational/organizational

developmenttraining,
Foodsystemdevelopment,
NutritionBehaviorchange,
Policystrengthening/implementation,
Sustainablemanagementofthreatened

ecosystems

Major Implementing Instruments: 5

Budget Range: $176M – $210M

AnapprovedProjectDesignPlan(PDP)(Annex10.5)outlinedthebroadapproachthatbothbuilds
on,andbetterintegratesthecurrentportfolioofEconomicGrowthOfficeactivities,basedonthe
followingprinciples:
a. Market‐basedsolutionsthattargetyouthandwomenforincome‐generatingopportunities
on‐farm,andoff‐farmalongthevaluechain(VC),whilereliablysupplyingnutritiousfoods.
b. Public/privateinstitutions,localmanagementgroups,andcommercialentities,strengthened
andempoweredtomanageproactively,basedincreasinglyonstrongdata,andbetterlinked
withend‐users’marketrequirements.
c. Sustainableandinclusivelandandwatermanagementthatconservesecosystemservicesand
functions,whilepromotingviablelivelihoods.
d. Policiesthatimprovethebusinessclimatefortargetedsectors,tobemoreinclusiveoflocal
stakeholders,andattractgreaterprivatesectorinvestment.
Thepresenceofalarge(andincreasing)populationofun‐andunderemployedyouthcanbeseenas
bothanopportunityandathreat.Therefore,youthengagementasapriorityinthecommercial
functionsofthevaluechainsisakeyfocusoftheproject.Women’sengagementisalsoapriority,
givenwomen’spropensitytospillovertotheirfamiliesandhouseholdsanysocialandeconomic
gainsthataccruetothem(bettereducation,enhancednutrition,etc.).
Whereverpossibletheprojectwilltakea‘servicedevelopment’viewtovaluechainfunctionsasa
keytosustainability.Therewillbeastrongfocusoncommerciallyviableproductsandservices
derivedfromscalablelocalsolutionsthataddvalueandenhancecompetitiveness.Thesewillbuild
onexistingsystemsandopportunitiesresultingineffectivelocalactors,institutionsandsystems.
Environmentalsustainabilitywillbeaddressedinallactivities,fromresilientagriculturalpractices
tobetterfishstockmanagement.
AttheendofEG4ALLtherewillbeinplaceamorestronglyintegratedinnovationsystemthatis
betterabletoexploititspotentialtocontributetoeconomicgrowth,employment,andfoodsecurity
inanenvironmentallysustainableway.Thissystemwilllinkpublicandprivatesectorsandbe
foundedonagrowing,dynamic,networkofMicro,Small,MediumEnterprise(MSMEs)offering
essentialbusinessservicesinresponsetomarketneeds.Smallfarmproductivity,profitabilityand
sustainabilitywillgrowbasedonimprovedavailabilityofinputs,marketsandservices.

2 Context

2.1 Political, Social, Commercial

SenegalisoneofthemoststablecountriesinAfrica,andhasconsiderablystrengthenedits
democraticinstitutionssinceitsindependencefromFrancein1960.Allthreepresidential
transitionssinceindependencehavebeenpeaceful,andPresidentMackySallisoverseeingfurther
legislativestrengthening,includingthepolicyofdecentralizationofgovernmentfunctionswhich
willenablegreaterresponsibilityfordecision‐makinginlocalareas.
Senegal’smacroeconomicperformanceiscontinuingstronglywitha2015growthrateof6.5%,a
ratethathasn’tbeenachievedsince2003,makingSenegalthesecondfastestgrowingeconomyin
WestAfrica,behindCôted’Ivoire(WorldBank,2016).
Theprimarysectoristhefastestgrowingsectorboostedbyextractivesandagriculture(terrestrial
cropsandwildfisheries).Inagriculture,goodrainfallandstrongoutcomesfromsectorstargetedby
governmentprograms(includinggroundnuts,rice,andhorticulture)explainthisoutcome.Overthe
pasttenyearstheAgriculturalProductionIndexhasincreasedby25%,mainlysupportedby
improvementsinriceyield(doubledto4metrictonsperhectare(MT/ha)),andalargeincreasein
horticulturalproduction(mainlybeans,tomatoes,andmangoes)(Badianeetal,2016).Millet,
sorghumandmaizehaveallremainedconstant.Fromanexportvalueperspective,thehorticultural
cropshaveseenamarkedgrowthinimportance,nowmovingintosecondplacebehindgroundnuts.
ThisperiodhasalsoseenSenegalmovefromnetimportertoexporteroffishandanimalproducts
(despitethecountry'sfisherslosinganestimated300,000MToffisheachyeartoillegalfishing).
EconomicmodellingbyBadianeetal(2016)hasalsoidentifiedhorticultureasasignificantfuture

opportunity.

Senegal’s2015EnvironmentalThreatsandOpportunitiesAssessment(ETOA)detailedavarietyof
threatsaffectingbiodiversityandrelatedecosystems.Senegalhasasignificantamount(1.6million
hectares)ofprotectedareasfeaturingnationalparks,forestreserves,birdreservesandRamsar
wetlandssites.Manyoftheseareunderchallengefromoverexploitation,andaround40,000haof
forestarelosteveryyeartooverand/oralternativeuse.Significantwaterresourcesareavailable,
estimatedat4,700m3/capita/year,splitbetweensurfaceandgroundwatersources.The
groundwaterportionissuppliedbydeepaquifersthatcoverfourfifthsofthelandmass.Themain
threatstowaterquantityandqualityareclimatechangeandrelatedincreasedrainfallvariability
thatisalsoexacerbatingsoilsalinizationinareasclosetoestuaries,andpollutionfromagriculture,
industrialanddomesticwaste.
PovertyremainshighinSenegal,affecting46.7%ofthepopulation.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)
growthiswellbelowtheratesnecessaryforsignificantpovertyreduction,andagrowingreliance
oncapital‐intensiveexports,ratherthanlabor‐intensivesectors,limitsthecreationofnewjobs.
Repeatedshocksinrecentyearshavefurtherhamperedprogress,withpovertydecreasingonlyby
1.8%between2006and2011,andthenumberofpoorincreasing,reaching6.3millionin2011.
InequalityinSenegalismoderate,andslightlylowerthantheSub‐SaharanAfricanaverage.
However,geographicdisparitiesareverypronounced,withalmosttwooutofthreepoorresidents
inruralareas,especiallyinthesouth,versusoneinfourinDakar.Likewise,thereisstillmarked
inequalityingenderroles.Womenhavefarloweraccesstoproductiveresources(land,labor,
finance,water,andotherinfrastructure)andopportunitiestoenhancetheirskills(timeresource,
accesstotraining,extensionservicesandtechnologies).
Asignificantpercentageofyouth(52.2%)liveinruralareas(ANSD,2014),andaccordingtothe
mostrecentnationalpovertysurvey,ruralyouthexperiencehigherlevelsofextremepoverty,
illiteracyandinactivitythanurbanyouth(ANSD,2006).Thepercentageofyouthinruralareaswith
atleastaprimaryschooleducationislow,lessthan25%(ANSD,2014).
Eachyear,300,000newyoungjobseekersenterthelabormarket,and50%areinruralareas.The
ruraleconomyoffers60%ofnationalemploymentopportunitiestoyouth(ANSD,2014).The
nationalyouthemploymentpromotionagenciesAgenceNationaled’InsertionetdeDéveloppement
Agricole(ANIDA)andProgrammedesDomainesAgricolesCommunautaires(PRODAC)stillstruggle
toattractyouthandprovidethemwithpermanentjobs.Over60%ofMSMEsareyouthowned,and
employmentinqualitycontrolandqualityassuranceisinlinewithworld‐classcommodityvalue
chains.However,youngSenegaleselookingforagriculturesectoremploymentorentrepreneurial
opportunityfaceverylimitedaccesstoland,finance,andcontinuedtrainingtocompeteforthefew
jobsthatareavailable(USAIDSenegal,2016b).Senegalalsoleadsitspeersintheregioninyouth
unemploymentasevidencedinFigure1below.

Figure 1. Youth Unemployment rates (GlobalEconomy.com, World Bank)

Innutrition,SenegallagsinachievingtheWorldHealthAssembly2025goals.Duringtheperiod,
2005‐14,thechildren‐under‐5stuntingrateremainedconstantataround19%.However,this
masksregionaldisparities,withDakarandcentralregionsimproving,whilethesouthhas
worsened.Overthesameperiod,theprevalenceofexclusivebreastfeedingworsenedfrom37.5%
to32.4%.Senegalhasthehighestprevalenceofwomenanemiaandthefifthhighestprevalenceof
womenunderweightinsub‐SaharanAfrica.Over‐nutritionanditsrelatednon‐communicable
diseasesareontherise,with21.3%ofwomenoverage40overweightorobese.
Senegallagsbehinditspeersintheregioninbusinessclimateimprovement.Accordingtothe
WorldBank’sDoingBusiness2016report,Senegalhastakenimportantstepstoimproveits
businessenablingenvironmentwiththecreationofthePresidentialCouncilonInvestment,the
establishmentofaonestop‐shopforbusinessregistrationandthereductionofcorporatetaxrates.
However,sustainedeffortsarestillneededtoimprovetheregulatoryclimate:contract
enforcement,thetimeandcostinvolvedinregisteringpropertyaspectofbusiness,andother
constraintsincreasethecostsandriskstobusinessesandhinderaccesstoworld‐classservices,
investmentandcompetitivebusinessperformance(Figure2).Aweakbusinessenabling
environmenthasdiscouragedentrepreneurshipandnewbusinessformationandresultedinlarge
numbersofinformalfirms,whichhavelaborproductivitylevelsthatareonly7%to10%thatof
formalones.

Figure 2. Cost of Starting a Business (Global Economy.com, World Bank).

2.2 USAID/EGO Engagement

Inthecerealcropssub‐sectorofagriculture,theflagshipFTFSenegalValueChainActivity,known
asNaatalMbay,wasbuiltuponsuccessesandlearningfromearlierinvestments,notablyWula
NafaaandSenegalAcceleratedGrowthandIncreasedCompetitivenessActivity(SAGIC),followed
bytheEconomicGrowthProject(PCE).NaatalMbayhascatalyzedproductivityandmarket
linkagesintherice,maizeandmilletvaluechains.Overtheperiod2013/15,adoptionofthe
improvedtechnicalpackagesdevelopedbytheprojectincreasedirrigatedriceyieldsfrom5‐6
MT/ha,leadingtomorethan$15Minincrementalsales.Irrigatedriceyieldsarepoisedtoincrease
evenfurther.Regardingmaize,supplyofcertifiedseedtrebledfrom3,000MTto10,000MTinthe
2014to2016period‐anoutcomefacilitatedbypartnershipsamongUSAID,Senegalesecompanies,
andfarmers’groups.Forfinancialrisk‐reductiontosupportgreateragriculturalinvestmentby
smallholders,innovativeinsuranceinstrumentsweretestedinthemaizeandmilletzoneswith
goodresults(USAIDSenegal,2015b).In2015,1,470maizeandmilletgrowerspurchasedrain‐
indexinsurancepackages,and450werepaidoutduetodrought.Inthesubsequentseason,14,350
farmersboughtinsurancethatcovered4,000ha.Forthemoreadvancedproducers,workingcapital
issuesarebeingaddressedthroughequipmentleasingschemesandwarehousereceipts–both
modernmethodsforaddressingtheliquidityneedsofagrowingindustry(USAIDSenegal,2013).
Inthefisheriessector,throughtheCollaborativeManagementforaSustainableFisheriesFuturein
Senegal(COMFISH),reformsarecontributingtosustainingtheproductivityofmarinefisheries
ecosystems,reducingpost‐harvestlosses,promotinginternationaltradethrougheco‐labelingand
connectingartisanalfishersmorefullyinthefisheriesvaluechains,withinnovativeproductssuch
asfisheriesinsurance.Theactivityhasmadestrikinggainsinimprovedgovernancethroughlocal
councilsforartisanalfishing.InconjunctionwiththeClimateInformationServicesforIncreased
ResilienceandProductivity(CINSERE)activity,whichemphasizesstrategicuseofclimatic
information,resilienceandproductivityoftargetedcommunitiesoffishers,herdersandfarmers
arebeingpromotedasameansofconfrontingclimatevariabilityandchange.
Concerningnutrition,anutrition‐ledagricultureapproachwasemployedthroughtheYaajeende
activitytoreducemalnutritioninMatam,Kedougou,Kolda,andBakelDepartment(Tambacounda).
Toolsdeployedinthisapproachincludepromotingtheemergenceofcommunity‐based
agribusinessesthatfacilitateavailabilityandaccessibilityofagriculturegoodsandservicesto
isolatedandvulnerablecommunities.Thesebusinessessupportimprovedproduction,tradeand
localconsumptionofquality,nutritiousfoods,suchasorangefleshedsweetpotato,bio‐fortified
grains,meatanddairy.ResultsunderYaajeendeincludea30%dropinstuntingrates,from23%in
2011to16%in2015;adecreaseinpovertyby2.5to2.9%,andanincreaseintheproportionof
womenpracticingexclusivebreastfeedingfrom1%in2011to24%in2015.Ahallmarkofthis
activityisitsworkwithlocalgovernmentbodiestomaximizethenumbersofpeoplewhoare
exposedtothebenefits.
TheEducationandResearchinAgriculture(ERA)Activityistheprimaryvehicleforhelpingto
developthehumanandinstitutionalcapacityamongtheSenegalesepublicandprivatesectorsto
spurvaluechainproductivity,andundergirdsustainableproductionsystems.UnderERA,a“4‐H
Senegal”PositiveYouthDevelopmentProgramfocusesonagricultureandentrepreneurshipfor
sustainablecommunitydevelopment.Itnowhasover30clubsinthreeregionsofSenegal,reaching
hundredsofyouth.ERAissupportingacademicprogramsrangingfrom20MastersDegreesatU.S.
universitiestodegreesandcertificatesfor104scholarsatSenegaleseuniversitiesandtechnical
traininginstitutes.
Inthepolicyrealm,throughtheFTFSenegalAgriculturalPolicyProject/Projetd'Appuiaux
PolitiquesAgricoles(PAPA)andtheFTFSenegalPolicyforAgricultureInvestmentsActivity(P4I)
stridesarebeingmadetoaddresspoliciesthatimpedeprogressintheagriculture,fisheries,and
businessenablingenvironment.Fisherieslawshavebeenstrengthenedandfisheriescodes
introducedtoimproveenforcementmeasures.

3 Problem Statement

ExhaustiveanalyseshavebeeneitherperformedorcommissionedbytheUSAID/SenegalEconomic
GrowthOffice(EGO)intheareasofgender,youthemploymentinagriculture,MSMEsituation,
policy,energyandwaterforagriculture,fisheriespoliticaleconomy,andnutrition.Inaddition,
multipleengagementswereundertakenwitharangeofgovernmentdepartments,institutions,
otherdonors,andformalandinformalproducerandadvocacygroupstodeepenEGO’s
understandingofremainingconstraints,specifically:
Laggingagriculturalproductivity:Onthewhole,foodproductioninSenegalisnotefficientdueto
availabilityandaccessissuesrelatedtosecureland,water,credit,fertilizers,pesticides,seeds,
equipment,andproventechniquesforincreasedagriculturalproduction.Theverystructureofthe
inputsectorsandvariousdistortionsinthemarketlimitprivatesectorinvestmentinthecereal
seedssector.Pressureonlandandwaterresourcesinacountrywherepopulationgrowthand
urbanizationoutpacegainsinfoodsystemfunctionality,makegainsinproductivityallthemore
urgent.Accesstotechnologiesandinnovationdiffusionislimitedbytheweaknessofthe
governmentresearchandextensionservicessystemandthelackoflinkageswiththeprivate

sector.

Waterandenergyinfrastructurearewantinginremoteareas:Althoughpublicinvestmentsin
watermanagementtechnologiesandirrigationsystemshavecontributedtoincreasedrice
productionintheSenegalRiverValley(SRV)andlowlandareasinSouthernForestZone(SFZ),
Senegaleseagricultureisstillmostlydependentonrainfall.Therecurringincidenceofextreme
weatherwithirregularrainfall,flooding,anddrought,bearsincreasedrisksbothtofarming
businessesandtofoodsecurity.Expansionofprocessingfacilitiesishamperedbythelowaccessto
energyandthehighercostofelectricityandfuelinruralareas.Increasingtheavailabilityofwater
andenergy,likeimprovedseedsandfertilizers,arecriticaltoimprovedagriculturalproductivity.
LandTenure:Securelandtenurecreatesamorefavorableenvironmentforagriculturalgrowth
throughsmallholders(men,women,andyoungpeople)andotherresponsibleinvestment.Access
toandcontroloflandismorelimitedforwomenandyoungpeople.Thereisrecognitionoftheneed
toreformthelawsgoverninglandtenureandtoimproveimplementationofexistinglawsinways
thatsupportgreaterinclusionofwomenandyoungpeople.Transparentlandrightsinformation,
includingmaps,inareastargetedforinvestmentiscritical.Giventhatexistingprojectstomapand
recordlandrights(MillenniumChallengeCorporation[MCC]andWorldBankProjetde
DéveloppementInclusifetDurabledel’AgribusinessauSénégal[PDIDAS])onlycoverpartoftheSRV,
wheremostinvestmentisconcentrated,thereisconsiderableneedtoadaptandapplytoolsfor
improvedlanddocumentationandmanagementmorebroadly.
Weakprivatesectorinvestmentsinagriculture:Financialresourcesdedicatedtotheagriculture
sectorhavebeenlimited.BasedontheSenegalPublicExpenditureReviewinAgriculture(PERA),
agricultureinvestmentsaccountfor10percentofthenationalinvestmentportfolio.Recurrent
interventionsofthegovernmentinthefinancialandinputssectorsdistortmarketsandincreasethe
risksfortheprivatesector.Lowprivatesectorinvestmentinagricultureisamajorcontributing
factortotheweakcompetitivenessofthesector,negativelyimpactingpoverty,foodinsecurity,and
overalleconomicgrowth.
LaggingformationandgrowthofMSMEs:Arangeofsocialandeconomicfactorspreventrobust
developmentofMSMEsinSenegal.Constraintspreventingthemfromcontributingeffectivelyto
economicdevelopmentinclude:pooraccesstocredit,inadequatemanagerialandtechnicalskills,
insufficientaccesstoinformation,limitedcompetitiveness,highregulatoryburdens,andlimited
formalization.Duetothesechallenges,MSMEsustainabilityislow(60%failwithintwoyears).As
employmentcreationandincomeexpansionremaincriticalforpovertyreduction,addressing
challengesfortheMSMEsectorprovidesopportunitiestopursuethesegoals.
Lowresiliencetoclimateandeconomicshocks:Senegal’spopulationisincreasingfasterthan
agriculturaloutputandagricultureishighlyvulnerabletoclimate‐relatedrisks.Theserisksinclude:
variableandincreasinglyextremerainfalllevels,andextremetemperatures;delayedonsetanddry
spellsduringrainyseason;floodsfromheavyrainfallevents;sea‐levelriseandcoastalerosion,that
arehavinganimpactoncrop,livestockandfisheriessectors,threateningthecountry’s
developmentgoals.Whenerraticrains,frequentdryspells,andvariationsinthetimingandlength
oftherainyseasonoccur,livesareputatrisk,assetsaredamaged,productivityfallsandincomes
fail.Thistrapspeopleinacycleoffoodinsecurityandpoverty.Rainfallvariabilityislikelyto
continue,withanincreaseinsevereweatherevents.Proactiveandintegratedriskmanagement
strategiesareneededtobuildfarmers’andfishers’resiliencetoclimate‐relatedshocksand
improvelivelihoods.Despiteprogressindevelopingeconomicpotentialandintroducing
innovationsforclimateadaptability,resilienceatcommunitylevelsremainsweakduetolackof
effectivemechanismstogenerategroupresponsestounexpectedshocks.Thus,greater
organizationalcapacitytoproduceunifiedcommunityresponsestomajorshocksisneeded.
Senegalneedstoidentifyandapplyafullsetofpoliciesandactionsforachievingnationalfood‐

system‐resilience.

Lowlevelsofyouthintegrationinmodernagriculture:Anumberofissuesconstrainyouth
integrationinmodernagriculture,onandofffarminSenegal.Foryouthinterestedinfarming,the
twomainproblemsareaccesstolandownershipandaccesstocredit.Anumberofgovernmentand
donor‐financedprogramsareattemptingtoaddressthecreditissuewithmixedresults.Thereisa
vastarrayofinstitutionsaimingtosupportdirectlyorindirectlybusinessdevelopment
opportunitiesinagricultureandprovidetrainingforyouth(DomainesAgricolesCommunautaires,
ANIDA,AgenceNationalepourlaPromotiondel’EmploidesJeunes[ANPEJ],variousdonors),but
effortslackcoherenceandareoftenstandaloneorone‐offendeavors.Stimulatingjobsforyoung
peopleintheagriculturesector,inareassuchasprocessing,machinery/equipmentrental,
operationandrepair,andlogistics,canbeintegratedandlinkedmoredeliberatelywithMSME
developmentandothereffortstoaccelerateagriculturalgrowthandimprovefoodsecurity.
InformationandCommunicationTechnologies(ICT)withdigitaltools’holdgreatpotentialto
enhanceagriculturalproductivitythroughinnovativevalue‐addedservicesalongthevaluechains
andprovidejobopportunitiestoyouth.
Slowpaceinimplementationofagriculturalpolicyreforms:CloselytiedtoSenegal’slow
agriculturalproductivityandlimitedprivatesectorinvestment,aconstrainedagriculturalpolicy
environment,atthenationalandlocallevelsisdetrimentaltothecompetitivenessoftheagriculture
sector.Implementationofpolicyreformswashighlightedinmultiplestrategies(Agro‐Sylvo
PastoralOrientationLaw‐LOASP,NewAllianceforFoodSecurityandNutritionCooperation
Framework,andPlanSenegalEmergent)asessentialformodernizingandincreasingsector
performance.TheLOASPwasenactedasanexpressionofSenegal’saspirationtomakeagriculture
anengineofeconomicgrowth,yetimplementationhasslowed.Bothatthenationalandlocallevels,
considerableworkremainstoadvancereformsinareassuchaslandtenure,women’s
empowerment,youthinclusion,waterrights,theenablingenvironmentforincreasedprivatesector
investmentandareductioninthegovernmentintrusionsthatdistortagriculturalinputand
equipmentmarkets.Atthesametime,thereareimportantinstitutionalandhumanresource
capacitygapswithinthecognizantMinistriesthatconstrainthemfromeffectivelyformulating,
implementingandmonitoringtheneededreforms.Hence,morefocusedattentionon
strengtheningtheunderlyingpolicyarchitectureisrequired.
Unsustainableoceanfisheries:Wildfisheriesarecriticaltothesocio‐economicdevelopmentof
Senegal,yetthesectoronthewholeischaracterizedbyoverexploitation,inadequateregulationand
monitoring,weakstakeholderconsultationmechanisms,andoverallpoormanagement.Overfishing
ofkeyspeciesanddecliningfishsizeandabundancepushSenegalesefisherstofishfurther
offshore.Illegal,unreportedandunregulatedfishing(IUU)andthere‐emergenceoflargefishing
vesselsillegallyharvestingfishwithintheEconomicExclusiveZoneofSenegaldepletetheresource
baseandlowernaturalproductivity,negativelyaffectingfishers’livelihoodsandnationalwealth.
Thesituationiscompoundedbytheconsequencesofawarmingclimateonthemarineandcoastal
resourcesandenvironment,namelychangingfishstockmigrationhabitsandspatialandtemporal
abundance.Despitethesethreatstosustainableoceanfisheries,thepolicyresponsedoesnotyet
providesufficientincentiveforchange.
Insufficientmulti‐sectoralintegrationfornutritionandpoorunderstandingofthecauses
drivingmalnutritioninSenegal’svariousagro‐ecologicalzones:Bringingaboutimproved
nutritioncallsforinterventionsintheagriculture,healthandeducationsectors,alongwith
improvementsinpeople’seconomicstatus.Yet,effortstoaddressnutritiongapshavebeenlargely
embeddedinandledbythehealthsector.WhilerisingGDPpercapitaandincreasingproximityto
marketsareassociatedwithdeclinesinunderweight,theyarealsolinkedwithworseningratesof
overnutritionanditsrelatednon‐communicablediseases.Senegalisinthemidstofanutrition
transitionmarkedbythecoexistenceofoverandundernutritionatthepopulation,householdand
individuallevels.Togetoutfrontofthisloomingdoubleburden,deliberatecoordinationtodrive
developmentofamulti‐sectoralnutritionpolicyandstrategyareneeded.Thespecificdriversof
malnutritionbyagro‐climaticzonesareunknownsointerventionstendtobebasedonUNICEF’s
generalmalnutritionframework,anecdotalevidence,andassumptions.AcausalstudyinBurkina
Fasorevealedthatwhilenutritioninterventionsfocusedonfoodshortagesduringthelean(rainy)
season,amaintriggerofacutemalnutritionwasthespikeininfantilediarrheaoccurringmonths
earlierduringthedryseasonduetounavailabilityofsufficientwaterforgoodhygiene.Gaininga
nuancedunderstandingofthecausalfactorsatworkinthedifferentgeographicalzoneswhere
malnutritionpersistsiscriticaltooptimallytargetingUSAID,GOSandothers’resourcestoachieve
thegreatestimpact.
Significantgendergapsinagricultureandfoodsecurity:Therehasbeensteadyprogressin
socio‐economicconditionsforSenegalesewomen.InterventionsunderYaajeendeandCOMFISH
havehelpedwomendiversifytheirincomes,improvetheirnutritionstatusandtakeonleadership
rolesinimportantcommunityactivities.Still,lessthanhalfofthosesurveyedfortheFTFSenegal
2015‐16ZOIInterimAssessment,reportedhavingownership,accessto,anddecision‐making
poweroverthepurchase,saleortransferofproductiveresourcessuchasland,livestock,
agriculturalequipment,consumerdurablesandcredit.Whilethereistremendouspotentialfor
entrepreneurshipandemploymentinthevalue‐addedsegmentsofvaluechains,creative
approacheswillneedtobedeployedtosuccessfullyaddresspersistentculturalandinstitutional
biases.Afinalareaofconcernistheneedformen’sengagementandactiveparticipationin
householdnutrition,supportingwomeninreducingtheirlaborburdenandincreasing
time/resourcesavailableforkeypractices,suchasexclusivebreastfeeding,continued
breastfeedingbeyondsixmonths,propercomplementaryfeeding,andseekinghealthcare.
Lowcapacityofknowledgemanagementsystemsforevidence‐baseddecision‐making:
Relevant,timelyandaccurateagriculturaldataandstatisticsareneededtosupportanalysis
producerdecision‐makingandtheimpactofgovernmentpoliciesonallaspectsofagriculture–
trendsintrade,progresstowardsfoodsecurity,impactoffarmeroutreachprograms,statusof
fisheriesstocks,etc.Timely,accurateandrelevantinformationisalsoneededforefficient
functioningofagriculturalmarkets,andmonitoringprogresstowardsorhindrancestofood
securityandeconomicgrowth.

The current suite of EGO projects is addressing aspects of each of the above gaps.

EG4ALLrepresentsanewgenerationofactivities,buildingonevidenceandlessonslearnedfrom
earlieraccomplishments.

4 Project Approach

4.1 Theory of Change

The Project is based upon the following theory of change:

If productivity and resilience of food production systems are enhanced;

If access to markets and trade is increased;

If employment and enterprise development are increased;

If nutrition behaviors are improved; and

If sustainable ecosystem management is improved;

Thenincomeswillincrease;consumptionofnutritiousdietswillincrease;andnaturalcapitalwill
beenhanced.Achievementofallthreeoftheseintermediateresultswillcontributeultimatelytothe
sustainablereductionofpovertyandundernourishmentamongEG4ALLbeneficiaries.

This logic is represented graphically in Figure 3.

The achievement of the Sub‐IRs will also be supported by seven cross‐cutting intermediate results

(CCIR).

Figure 3. Project Results Framework

By2023,USAIDwillinvestapproximatelyUS$210milliontoreach150,000householdsinorderto
impactthelivesof1,500,000peopleandincreasethe2015averagehouseholdincomeintheFTF
ZOIby20%.Thisinvestmentwillalsoallowprojectactivitiestoreach70%ofallchildrenunder
five,andincreaseconsumptionofaminimumacceptabledietforchildren6‐23monthsfrom7%to
35%,ineachfocuscommunity.Further,therewillbeincreasesinthreekeydomainsofthe
Women'sEmpowermentinAgriculture2015score:assetownership,accesstocredit,andworkload
by17%,47%and14%,respectively.IntheFTFZOI,thiswillultimatelycontributetoreducing
povertyandstuntingby15%insynergywiththehealthandWASHprojects.

4.2 Project Principles

EG4ALLbuildsonastrongsequenceofpreviousandcurrentactivities.Assuch,theproposed
activitiesaredesignedaccordingtoprinciplesthatwillcontinuetopushresultsdeeperandwider.
Theprinciplesaregroupedaroundthethemesofkeyfocusareassuchasintegratedvaluechain
approaches,entrepreneurshipandmarketdrive,womenandyouthempowermentleadingtoscaled
technologiesandgoodpractices,systemicchange,andsustainability.
YouthengagementshouldunderpinallprojectactivitiesinlinewithUSAID’s2012Youthin
DevelopmentPolicyusingthePositiveYouthDevelopment(PYD)approachthatseekstobuildthe
fourdomainsofyouthassets,youthagency,youthleadershipandparticipationandastrongyouth
enablingenvironmentatthefamily,communityandnationallevels.Thegoalistomakeagriculture
funandlucrativeformanyyoungpeople,tocementtheirlongtermcontributiontoSenegalese
agriculturebyextendingeveryopportunitytoimproveemploymentoptionsforyouthandwomen,
asownersand/oremployeesoftheserviceproviderstotheexpandingruralmarket.
EmpowermentunderpinstheEG4ALLapproach,asaccesstoinformationaloneisinsufficientto
ensureadoptionofbestpractices.Ultimately,successfulbehaviorchangeiscontingentupon
agency,anindividual’spowerorabilityandwillingness,botheconomicandsocial,totransform
theirknowledgeofbestpracticesintoaction.TheProjectwillpromotegenderequalityand
women’sempowermentbyactivelyengagingmenandwomenofallagestoincreasetheircapacity
tobegoodenvironmentalstewards,betterbusinesspeople,engagedcitizens,andproponentsof
goodnutritionandchildcare.Itisrecognizedthatwhenpowerdynamicsshift,forexamplewhen
womengeneratemoreincome,thereisanimpactonmenaswell.Therefore,theprojectmust
activelyengagebothmenandwomentoensurethatgainsaremaintainedandadvancedata
societallevel,ratherthanunderminedortakenoverbyindividualswhomaynotfeelincluded.
Donoharm.Allproposedactivitieswillbescreenedandassessedtoavoidunderminingexisting
functioningsystems.Examplesarethosecommercialsystemsorganizedthroughthecurrent
projects,ongoinggovernmentefforts,andotherdonorprogramsworkingundersimilarprinciples.
Tobeavoidedaresubsidies,donor‐dependentpractices,orotherapproachesthatunderminethe
developmentoflocalsolutionsandengenderacultureofdependenceordisempowerment.
Workingwithpartnersshouldinvolveatruesenseofengagement,ratherthanundulyimposing
activitiesthattheprojectdeembeneficial.
Closelyrelatedistheissueofsustainability.Implementationwillrequirecontinuousfocuson
marketsandagriculturalvaluechainsasthebasisfordemand‐drivenactivities.Localactors,
includingfarmers,privatesector,producerorganizations,businessorganizations,local
government,andcommunitygroups,shouldbetheprincipalactors,withservicesdevelopedtobe
moreresponsivetotheirneedsandtofacilitatetheirabilitytomeetmarketdemands.Supportin
theareaoffinancialservices,inputsupplyandmarketdevelopmentwillgenerallybetransactional,
respondingtoneedsandinterestsofindividualfirmsorproducergroups.Supporttotraining,
information,andtechnologyproviderswillfacilitatebetterandmoreresponsiveservicetotheir
clientsorconstituents.TheProjectaimstofacilitatethefunctioningoflocalsystemsratherthan
becomeanactorinthesystemitself.Itwillseektotheextentpossibletofacilitatelinkagesamong
serviceproviders,businessesandotherinstitutions,tohelpthemachievetheirobjectives.Herethe
term‘service’referstoallthefunctionsthatenableactorswithvestedintereststooperate
efficiently.Thesefunctionsincludetechnicalandbusinesstraining,extensionandbehaviorchange
communication,researchanddevelopmentsupport,fisheriesandnaturalresourcesmanagement,
business/marketinginformationandsupportandqualityassurancesystems.Tothemaximum
extentpossible,theProjectwillembracelocalsolutionstofosterandenhancelocalownershipand

sustainability.

Buildingtheruralpopulation’saccesstoawiderangeofincomegeneratingactivities,withthe
confidencetorapidlychangebetweenthemdependingonprevailingclimatic/economicsituations,
plusincreasedhealthstatusandstronglocalgovernance,allcombinetoimproveresilienceto
potentialshocks.
Targetingofinvestmentswilloccuringeographicareasthathavethegreatestpotentialto
sustainablyimprovefoodsecurityandnutrition,usingthoseapproachesandinterventionsthat
evidenceshowswillreduceextremepoverty,hunger,andmalnutritionatscale.
ThemajorlessonfromtheprecedingProjetdeCroissanceÉconomique(PCE)activitywasthat
sufficientproof‐of‐concepthadbeendemonstratedtoshifttheimplementationfocusoftheensuing
NaatalMbayactivitytoscale‐up.Again,everyeffortandinnovationwillbeemployed,everyentity
energized,andeveryconstraintanalyzed,tomaximizethescaling‐uppotentialoftheproject.
Scienceandinnovationisanimportantareaofinvestmentthatcanhelptoscaleupandaccelerate
impactoftargetedtechnologiesonfoodsecurity.Whenconsideringscalingupasuccessfulpilot,
rigorousanalysesandresearchonthepathwaysofuptakeoftechnologyandinnovativepractices,
aswellashowtotriggerbehaviorchange,willbeundertaken.Furthermore,identifying,
characterizingandisolatingthosefactorsthatinfluenceuptakeandseekingtoidentifythose
solutionsorpracticesthatshowpromiseforscalingsothattheyareharnessedduringandbeyond
thelifeoftheproject,shouldbecomemainstream.
EG4ALLwillencourageimplementingentitiestobescientific,rigorousandyet,pragmaticand
actionableintheirrecommendations.Makingdata‐and‐evidence‐baseddecisionsshouldbethe
norm,andpartofanycapacitydevelopmentprogram.Thereisawealthofinternationalandlocal
partnersdevelopingnewtechnologiestosuitprojectclientsatalllevelsofdevelopment.
ICThasasuiteoftechnologyofferingstoincreasetheefficiencyofimplementation,while
upgradingthemanagementsystemsoftheentitiesinvolvedintheprogram.Specifically,ICToffers
waystomultiplytheuseofscarce,high‐leveltechnicalexpertise,tolargerandmoredispersed
clientgroups–forexample,throughtheuseofsocialmediaforgroupproblemsolving,video
instruction,andexpertdecisionsupportsystems.Similarly,ICTisenablinghighresolution
management,basedonreal‐timedatacollection.
Partneringwithlocalprivatesectorandlocalinstitutionstounlockopportunities,mitigaterisks
andsecureinvestmentisalsokey.NaatalMbay,Yaajeende,COMFISH,ERAandCINSEREareall
supportingorganizationalcapacitydevelopmentoftargetedlocalorganizationsthatwillbe
partneredtoscaleupandsustaintheactivities.

4.3 Assumptions/Risks

Thetheoryofchangelogicassumesthatcertaincontextualandmacroeconomictrendswillremain
stable.Thespecificassumptionsarelistedbelow.Dramaticshiftsinanyofthesecouldpotentially
derailachievementoftheintermediateresultsandoverallgoalofEG4ALL.
● Inputpricesremainoncurrenttrendsorimprove;
● Weatherandclimatepatternsremainoncurrenttrends;
● Globalfoodpricesremainrelativelystable;
● Commitmenttomarketliberalizationcontinues(SenegalcontinuestofulfillWorldTrade
Organization[WTO]&regionalagreements);
● Demandfortargetsectorproductsremainsstableorimproves;
● Easeofdoingbusinessremainsthesameorimproves;
● Politicalreceptivitytopro‐businesslaborlaw(labormarket….)remainsthesameor

improves;

● Populationandleadershipremaingenerallyreceptive(tochange,newinformation);
● Effectivenessoflocalpopulations’engagementindecisionmakingremainsthesameor

improves;

● Revenues from oil and gas do not influence investments and purchasing power until after

thecompletionperiodofthisPAD(2023).TheyaresaidnottoaccruetoSenegaluntil
around2021;

● Budgets from USG don’t drastically decrease.

4.4 Geographic Approach

TheProjectwillcontinueoperationsinthesameFeed‐the‐Future(FTF)ZoneofInfluence(ZOI)as
thecurrentEGOactivities(Figure4).
Therearesignificantreasonsfornotchanging.First,manyoftheseactivitiesarestillin‘forming’
mode,gainingtractionandconfidencewithlocalstakeholders.Newsystemshavebeentested,and
arestillbeingadapted.Thereisalsoasensethatthereismuchpotentialfor‘filling‐in’theareas,as
morepeopleexperiencethebenefits.TheProjectwillleverageandcapitalizeonEGO’ssuccessful

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