7-d. Fairfield Enrollment Projections Report 2025.pdf

Fairfield Public Schools

10-Year Enrollment Projection Update

January 2025

Fairfield Public Schools 2

Contents

• Enrollment Drivers

• Enrollment Trends Analysis

• Enrollment Projections

• Appendix A: High and Low Districtwide Projections

• Appendix B: Individual School Projections (Medium Model)

Fairfield Public Schools 3

Introduction

This enrollment projection report examines factors that influence school enrollments, namely trends in demographics, births, housing, and enrollment. These trends provide a framework for the districtwide and school-by-school enrollment projections.

MP Planning Group has analyzed demographic; housing; and economic trends, characteristics, and forecasts along with birth data and historic enrollment trends to create enrollment projections for Fairfield Public Schools

The Office of Grants Administration, OGA, (Formerly OSCG&R) requires a minimum of 8-year enrollment projections as a critical factor for determining reimbursement eligibility and project size for school construction projects. Projections must be both districtwide and school based. This 10-year enrollment projection report is intended to fulfill those requirements.

Fairfield Public Schools 4

Enrollment Drivers

Population Trends

• Fairfield has experienced population growth each decade since 1990.

• Between the 2010 and 2020 census, Fairfield’s population grew by 2,108 residents, or 3.6%, reaching 63,433 residents.

• Fairfield was the 20th fastest growing municipality in Connecticut between 2010 and

2020.

• Population estimates from the CT Department of Public Health show continued population growth of 1,921 residents (+3.1%) since 2020, with an estimated 63,433 residents as of 2023.

Empty Nesters &

Retirees Less likely to have children in school system

Established Families Likely to have children in public schools

Young Families Likely to have young children not yet enrolled in school.

Children &

Young Adults

• While overall population increased modestly between

2010 and 2020, trends varied age group.

• Fairfield saw the fastest growth in the 55- to 64-year-old age group (+26%), with the population age 65 years old and over growing by 12%.

• The 20- to 34-year-old age groups also saw growth of

1,186 people, with 20- to 24-year-olds experiencing the greatest growth.

• Growth in population under 20 driven by 15- to 19-year-olds.

• Likely due to impacts from college student population

• The population between the ages of 35 and 54 saw the greatest decline in population, decreasing by about 2,200 residents between 2010 and 2020.

• This group is most likely to have school-aged children.

Population Trends

Age 2000 2010 2020 2010-2020

15 to 19 years 2214 2,684 4,186 56.0%

20 to 24 years 1512 2,102 2,625 24.9%

25 to 29 years 1220 1,054 990 -6.1%

30 to 34 years 2031 1,249 1,361 9.0%

35 to 39 years 2507 1,930 1,774 -8.1%

40 to 44 years 2490 2,381 1,888 -20.7%

45 to 49 years 2191 2,564 2,191 -14.5%

Total 11,951 11,280 10,829 -4.0%

Females of Childbearing Age

• Females of childbearing age (FOCBA) typically strongly correlates with births.

• Connecticut’s highest fertility rates are in the 30- to

39-year-old age cohorts.

• Decrease in FOCBA between 2000 and 2010 (including age groups with highest fertility rates) corresponds to a period of decreasing births.

• FOCBA decreased between 2010 and 2020 to 10,829 people. However, there was growth in the 15 to 24 year old population (influenced by college student population).

• There was growth in the 30- to 34-year-old cohort, offsetting a loss in the 35- to 39-year-old cohort, who have the highest birth rates.

Birth Trends and Projections

• Note that beginning in 2019, birth tabulations and projections switch from calendar year to

September-August to align with new kindergarten entry age requirements for 2024-25 year.

• Births last peaked in 2000 at 838 births and consistently decreased, reaching a low of 474 births in 2012.

• Births slowly increased between 2012 and 2020, averaging 510 annually, and increase more substantially between 2021 and 2024 (average of

572 annually).

• Preliminary data for 2024 shows continuation of elevated births.

• Three birth projection models prepared through

2029 to align with the high, medium, and low enrollment projection models.

• Low model: avg. 533

• Medium model: avg. 557

• High model: avg. 580

Next 5 K classes

Note change from calendar year to Sept-

Aug births starting in 2019 to align with new state entry age requirements

Unemployment

• Fairfield’s unemployment trends closely mirror both the state and Fairfield

County, albeit at lower levels.

• For 2024 YTD, local unemployment has fell to under 3.5%, a return to pre-pandemic levels.

Home Sale Trends

• Home sales peaked in the early and mid 2000s at

1,276 total sales.

• Sharp drop in sales between 2007 and 2011, reaching a low of 577 sales in 2009.

• Sales steadily increased between 2009 and 2020 and averaged about 865 annually between 2015 and 2019.

• Spike in home sales in 2020 and 2021, averaging

1,175 annually, reaching the highest levels since 2005.

Tied to increased migration during the pandemic.

• Sales returned to pre-pandemic levels and 2022.

• For 2023 and 2024 YTD, sales are trending well below pre-pandemic levels, averaging under 650 sales annually.

• High interest rates, high prices, and low inventory contributing to decrease in total sales.

Median Home Sale Price

• Like communities across the state and nation, Fairfield has seen a sharp increase in home sale prices since 2019.

• Median single-family sale prices increased by

54% from $570,000 in 2019 to $875,000 for

2024 YTD.

• Median condo sale prices have increased at an even greater rate (85%), rising from $327,000 in

2019 to $605,000 for 2024 YTD.

Housing Permit Activity

• Single-family permit activity peaked in the early and mid 2000s, when Fairfield averaged over 100 new single-family permits annually.

• After decreasing during the Great Recession, single-family permits rebounded in the mid

2010s, however, a significant amount of demolition activity suggests that many of these permits were “tear-down rebuilds”, resulting in a small net gain in the number of single-family homes.

• Significant uptick in multi-family activity over the last decade. Fairfield has permitted nearly

900 multi-family units between 2014 and

2023.

Recently Built Housing

• Planning Department has tracked nearly 660 recently built multi-family units in major developments (20+ units). Almost all are mixed-income and contain a mix of market rate and affordable units.

• About 63% of recently built multi-family units are in the McKinley attendance zone, with the remaining units in Riverfield, N. Stratfield, and Holland Hill.

• As of fall 2024, these developments collectively have 48 students enrolled in FPS, or 0.07 students per unit.

Recently Completed Housing Development

Development Development Type Housing Units

Market Rate

Units

Affordable

Units Status ES School

FPS Enrollment

(Fall 2024)

528 Black Rock Turnpike Apartments 23 16 7 Completed - 2024 McKinley 1

2-6 Beacon Square Apartments 26 18 8 Completed - 2024 McKinley 4

5545 Park Avenue Apartments 100 70 30 Completed - 2024 N. Stratfield 0

78 Unquowa Place Apartments 26 18 8 Completed - 2022 Riverfield 2

333 Unquowa Road Apartments 90 81 9 Completed - 2021 Riverfield 7

Alto Fairfield (Kings Highway) Apartments 160 144 16 Completed - 2021 McKinley 14

1613, 1645 Black Rock Turnpike Apartments 29 20 9 Completed - 2018 Holland Hill 1

15 Pine Tree Lane Apartments 50 0 50 Completed - 2017 McKinley 7

665, 711 Commerce Apartments 101 90 11 Completed - 2017 McKinley 10

130 Fairchild Avenue Apartments 54 27 27 Completed - 2014 McKinley 2

Total Recently Completed 659 484 175 48

Source: Town of Fairfield Planning Department, Data as of January 2025

Under Construction or Approved Housing

Development Development Type Housing Units

Market Rate

Units

Affordable

Units Status ES School

131 Beach Road Apartments 40 28 12 Under Construction Sherman

92, 140 Bronson Apartments 91 63 28 Under Construction Mill Hill

219 Ash Creek Boulevard Apartments 367 257 110 Under Construction McKinley

1-59 Post Road Apartments 20 18 2 Approved Sherman

81 Black Rock Turnpike Apartments 245 215 30 Approved McKinley

250 Pequot Apartments 18 16 2 Approved Mill Hill

60 Katona Drive Apartments 18 16 2 Approved Holland Hill

110 Woodrow Ave Apartments 20 14 6 Approved Mill Hill

222 Stillson Road Apartments 24 16 8 Approved Jennings

980 High Street Apartments 40 8 32 Approved Holland Hill

185 Thorpe Street Age Restricted 148 133 15 Approved Riverfield

83 Castle Avenue Apartments 44 30 14 Approved McKinley

Total Approved/Under Construction 1075 814 261

Planned or Proposed Housing

Development Development Type Housing Units

Market Rate

Units

Affordable

Units Status ES School

4480 Black Rock Turnpike Apartments 96 67 29 Under Review Burr

15 Unquowa Apartments 63 44 19 Proposed Riverfield

1427, 1443 Kings Highway Apartments 18 16 2 Proposed McKinley

277-301 Berkeley Road Apartments 40 28 12 Pending McKinley

467 Tunxis Hill / 80 Soundview Apartments 46 32 14 Pending McKinley

2179 Post Road Apartments 40 32 8 Pending Mill Hill

430, 452 Stillson Apartments 19 17 2 Pending Osborn Hill

441 Post Road Apartments 250 220 30 Pending Sherman

812-820 Reef /115 Forrest Ave Apartments 45 31 14 Planned Sherman

4221 & 4267 Black Rock Turnpike Apartments 206 144 62 Planned Burr

Total Proposed/Pending 823 631 192

Housing Pipeline

• 1,075 housing units are either approved or under construction.

• About 61% of approved or under construction housing units are in the

McKinley attendance zone

• An additional 823 housing units are in various planning stages and have not received final approvals.

• Significant share of planned or proposed units in Burr (37%) and

Sherman (36%).

• Fairfield recently applied for a moratorium under CGS 8-30g, which (if accepted by the state), would halt applications for 8-30g developments for 4 years.

Housing pipeline projects are concentrated in the TOD station areas, Route 1 corridor, and Black Rock

Turnpike corridor

Fairfield Public Schools 16

Enrollment Trends Analysis

Historic Enrollment Trends

• Districtwide PK-12 enrollment peaked in

2012-13 at 10,335 students.

• PK-12 enrollment decreased of the last twelve years, reaching 9,143 students in

2024-25.

• Elementary school enrollment peaked in

2008-09 at 4,859 students

• Middle school enrollment peaked at

2,542 students in 2012-13.

• High school enrollment peaked at 3,109 students in 2020-21.

Source: CT State Department of Education: 2006-07 to 2023-24.

Fairfield Public Schools 2024-25

School Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2001-02 736 708 720 664 699 649 714 641 661 561 552 458 483

2002-03 695 763 717 724 666 699 657 711 641 609 545 537 463

2003-04 791 722 771 715 712 650 690 660 696 608 608 533 526

2004-05 762 792 729 772 696 723 657 702 661 661 601 598 541

2005-06 801 806 784 716 768 689 730 661 705 651 638 586 586

2006-07 822 806 794 806 731 770 703 728 664 707 621 641 575

2007-08 736 848 811 822 839 748 777 711 739 664 705 616 639

2008-09 785 751 843 817 818 845 756 781 732 713 653 690 625

2009-10 723 798 753 853 828 821 856 768 792 718 697 649 703

2010-11 769 742 808 760 848 832 825 846 771 781 708 693 666

2011-12 800 785 736 810 763 853 844 821 860 749 748 708 700

2012-13 683 842 775 742 820 767 862 854 826 816 730 742 706

2013-14 721 703 857 779 750 824 777 853 861 735 780 729 745

2014-15 686 750 710 869 784 756 808 788 851 793 739 781 726

2015-16 644 691 757 729 870 776 767 815 797 788 770 740 780

2016-17 646 675 706 773 737 887 776 772 808 737 780 783 767

2017-18 631 675 696 720 773 743 894 779 788 761 725 784 813

2018-19 623 643 688 696 724 786 728 896 785 762 756 749 816

2019-20 648 644 651 694 697 729 804 734 882 752 742 752 772

2020-21 589 658 618 641 689 702 739 810 740 841 742 742 784

2021-22 699 633 661 651 645 678 702 718 811 688 829 743 773

2022-23 634 736 664 686 683 643 690 715 744 745 691 820 780

2023-24 625 668 746 674 693 688 678 699 729 670 750 693 863

2024-25 617 647 682 753 669 693 690 682 703 646 672 740 738

Historic Enrollment Trends

Source: CT State Department of Education: 2006-07 to 2023-24. Fairfield Public Schools 2024-25

• Large kindergarten cohorts that entered between 2003-04 and 2011-12 have now graduated, including a very large cohort that graduated in 2023-24.

• Smaller kindergarten cohorts have entered over the last decade, resulting in declining enrollment as these cohorts matriculate.

• Enrollment “bubble” entered kindergarten in 2021-22 and is now in 3rd grade.

Elementary Enrollment Trends

• While overall elementary enrollment has been relatively over the last five years, trends vary by school:

• Holland Hill (+10%), North Stratfield (+9.9%), Osborn Hill (9.6%), McKinley (7.6%), and Mill Hill (4.8%) experienced increasing enrollment while Riverfield experienced stable enrollment

• Dwight (-16.8%), Stratfield (-14.4%), Roger Sherman (-9.0%), Burr (-5.2%), and Jennings (-2.8%) saw decreasing enrollment

• Note that special program placement impacts enrollment trends at individual schools

School 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

5-Year

Change

10-Yr

Chanage

Burr 388 383 380 387 366 350 339 352 357 347 -5.2% -10.6%

Dwight 310 314 314 298 274 266 255 245 231 228 -16.8% -26.5%

Holland Hill 405 404 379 359 350 350 360 374 379 385 10.0% -4.9%

Jennings 320 317 289 295 288 270 259 262 280 280 -2.8% -12.5%

McKinley 426 449 432 438 437 436 441 433 470 470 7.6% 10.3%

Mill Hill 382 384 347 346 354 360 368 404 402 371 4.8% -2.9%

North Stratfield 415 397 380 377 372 372 413 411 414 409 9.9% -1.4%

Osborn Hill 489 445 423 418 407 371 409 441 444 446 9.6% -8.8%

Riverfield 408 425 413 406 406 365 375 391 398 406 0.0% -0.5%

Roger Sherman 479 484 470 447 423 413 402 389 373 385 -9.0% -19.6%

Stratfield 440 419 406 384 381 338 337 340 339 326 -14.4% -25.9%

Elementary (K-5) Enrollment Trends, by School

Middle School Enrollment Trends

• While overall middle school enrollment has decreased by 13.3% over the last decade, trends vary by school.

• Fairfield Woods saw the steepest rate of decline at -19.4%.

• Tomlinson (-14.7%) also experienced a modest decrease in enrollment over the last decade.

• Roger Ludlowe saw the smallest decrease over the last decade (-4.7%) and is now the largest of the three middle schools.

High School Enrollment Trends

• While overall high school enrollment has decreased by 10.7% over the last decade, trends vary by school.

• Fairfield Warde saw a steepest rate of decline at -14.1%.

• Fairfield Ludlowe saw a slower rate of decline at -9.6%, with the biggest drop off in 2024-25 due to the graduation of an abnormally large 12th grade class

• From 2015-16 to 2017-18, the two high schools were roughly the same size. As of

2024-25, Fairfield Ludlowe is approximately

60 students larger.

• The number of students in the Alternative

HS program at the Walter Fitzgerald

Campus has increased from 29 students in

2015-16 to 73 students in 2024-25.

New-to-District Student Analysis

• New-to-District (NTD) students are identified by student

ID (SASIDs) that were not in the prior year’s enrollment database.

• NTD students averaged about 430 students annually in

2019-20 and 2020-21

• NTD students increased dramatically to 533 students in

2021-22, correspondent to peak home sale activity.

• NTD students have decreased over the last three years, corresponding to declining home sales. For 2024-25, FPS saw just 356 NTD students, which is the lowest level in recent memory.

• The elementary grades (1st grade) typically see the greatest number of NTD students.

• For the middle and high schools, the greatest number of

NTD students are seen during transition grades (6th and

9th grades).

NTD student patterns largely reflect the density of the community, with the greatest concentration of NTD students in Fairfield’s southern and eastern neighborhoods, proximate to

Route 1, and the train stations. These areas contain the highest density housing as well as most of the community’s multi-family units, which have more mobile populations than single-family homes.

Net Migration

• Net migration accounts for both NTD students as well as student withdrawals.

• Over the last decade, the elementary schools have seen net in-migration averaging +54 students annually. In-migration for 2024-25 is trending below the recent historic average.

• Middle schools have averaged positive net in-migration of +18 annually, with 2024-25 trending slightly below recent historic levels.

• High schools averaged net out-migration of -30 students over the last decade, primarily due to the loss of students during the 8th to 9th grade transition.

Fairfield Public Schools 25

Enrollment Projections

Projections Primer

• Based on Cohort Survival Methodology – Standard method accepted by OGA (formerly OSCG&R) for school construction projects

• The cohort survival methodology relies on observed data from the recent past in order to project the near future

• Persistency Ratios calculated from historic enrollment data to determine growth or loss in a class as it progresses through the school system

• Persistency Ratio of 1.0 means cohort size remains the same; 1.05 means the cohort size increases by 5%, or a cohort of 100 grows to 105 the following year

• Persistency Ratios account for the various external factors affecting enrollments: housing characteristics, residential development, economic conditions, student transfers in and out of system, and student mobility

• Changes in population, housing stock and tenure, and economic conditions help explain persistency ratios

• Changes in programming affect persistency ratios of individual schools

• Recent changes to Kindergarten entry age adds uncertainty to Kindergarten enrollment until trends are established.

Year Birth-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 Est. of

Migration

2002-03 0.9789 1.0367 1.0127 1.0056 1.0030 1.0000 1.0123 0.9958 1.0000 0.9213 0.9715 0.9728 1.0109 0.42%

2003-04 0.9950 1.0388 1.0105 0.9972 0.9834 0.9760 0.9871 1.0046 0.9789 0.9485 0.9984 0.9780 0.9795 -0.87%

2004-05 1.0481 1.0013 1.0097 1.0013 0.9734 1.0154 1.0108 1.0174 1.0015 0.9497 0.9885 0.9836 1.0150 0.41%

2005-06 0.9558 1.0577 0.9899 0.9822 0.9948 0.9899 1.0097 1.0061 1.0043 0.9849 0.9652 0.9750 0.9799 -0.35%

2006-07 1.0593 1.0062 0.9851 1.0281 1.0209 1.0026 1.0203 0.9973 1.0045 1.0028 0.9539 1.0047 0.9812 0.81%

2007-08 1.0839 1.0316 1.0062 1.0353 1.0409 1.0233 1.0091 1.0114 1.0151 1.0000 0.9972 0.9919 0.9969 2.04%

2008-09 1.0370 1.0204 0.9941 1.0074 0.9951 1.0072 1.0107 1.0051 1.0295 0.9648 0.9834 0.9787 1.0146 0.65%

2009-10 1.1350 1.0166 1.0027 1.0119 1.0135 1.0037 1.0130 1.0159 1.0141 0.9809 0.9776 0.9939 1.0188 1.07%

2010-11 1.1017 1.0263 1.0125 1.0093 0.9941 1.0048 1.0049 0.9883 1.0039 0.9861 0.9861 0.9943 1.0262 0.23%

2011-12 1.1747 1.0208 0.9919 1.0025 1.0039 1.0059 1.0144 0.9952 1.0165 0.9715 0.9577 1.0000 1.0101 0.46%

2012-13 1.1197 1.0525 0.9873 1.0082 1.0123 1.0052 1.0106 1.0118 1.0061 0.9488 0.9746 0.9920 0.9972 0.61%

2013-14 1.2057 1.0293 1.0178 1.0052 1.0108 1.0049 1.0130 0.9896 1.0082 0.8898 0.9559 0.9986 1.0040 0.69%

2014-15 1.1726 1.0402 1.0100 1.0140 1.0064 1.0080 0.9806 1.0142 0.9977 0.9210 1.0054 1.0013 0.9959 0.41%

2015-16 1.2505 1.0073 1.0093 1.0268 1.0012 0.9898 1.0146 1.0087 1.0114 0.9260 0.9710 1.0014 0.9987 0.84%

2016-17 1.2792 1.0481 1.0217 1.0211 1.0110 1.0195 1.0000 1.0065 0.9914 0.9247 0.9898 1.0169 1.0365 1.00%

2017-18 1.3312 1.0449 1.0311 1.0198 1.0000 1.0081 1.0079 1.0039 1.0207 0.9418 0.9837 1.0051 1.0383 1.26%

2018-19 1.2361 1.0190 1.0193 1.0000 1.0056 1.0168 0.9798 1.0022 1.0077 0.9670 0.9934 1.0331 1.0408 0.44%

2019-20 1.1489 1.0337 1.0124 1.0087 1.0014 1.0069 1.0229 1.0082 0.9844 0.9580 0.9738 0.9947 1.0307 0.58%

2020-21 1.1594 1.0154 0.9596 0.9846 0.9928 1.0072 1.0137 1.0075 1.0082 0.9535 0.9867 1.0000 1.0426 -0.28%

2021-22 1.2921 1.0747 1.0046 1.0534 1.0062 0.9840 1.0000 0.9716 1.0012 0.9297 0.9857 1.0013 1.0418 0.19%

2022-23 1.3154 1.0529 1.0490 1.0378 1.0492 0.9969 1.0177 1.0185 1.0362 0.9186 1.0044 0.9891 1.0498 2.92%

2023-24 1.2967 1.0536 1.0136 1.0151 1.0102 1.0073 1.0544 1.0130 1.0196 0.9005 1.0067 1.0029 1.0524 1.87%

2024-25 1.1820 1.0352 1.0210 1.0094 0.9926 1.0000 1.0029 1.0059 1.0057 0.8861 1.0030 0.9867 1.0649 0.54%

Kindergarten through 12th Grade Persistency Ratios by School Year

2002-2003 to 2024-25

Persistency Ratios

• Birth-K ratio correlates well with size of the birth cohorts. Small birth cohorts in 2012, 2017, and 2018 resulted in high Birth-K ratios, while years with larger birth cohorts see smaller Birth-K Ratio.

• Fairfield sees persistency ratios over 1 for most grades, indicating in-migration, with the exception of the 8th-9th grade transition, which has averaged 0.91 over the last four years.

• Estimate of migration compares students in grades 1 through 7 with grades 2 through 8 the year prior. Over the last ten years, Fairfield’s estimate of migration has averaged +0.94%, with this year falling well below the long-term historic average at just +0.5%.

Kindergarten Caveats & Assumptions

• New Kindergarten entry date became effective for 2024-25 school year per state law.

• Cutoff date shifted from January 1st to September 1st.

• Parents of students who turn five years old after September 1st can apply to enter kindergarten early via a “waiver” process.

• For 2024-25, parents of students who turned five years old could choose to “opt in” to kindergarten this year. 72 students, or

11.7% of this year’s kindergarten class, turned five years old after September 1st. This is lower than in prior years before the new entry date went into effect.

• This aligns well with prior projections, with this year’s kindergarten enrollment within 2 students of the projections.

• For 2025-26 and beyond, FPS plans to implement an assessment process for students requesting a waiver. This is anticipated to result in a slightly lower share of 4 years olds enrolling in kindergarten compared to 2024-25.

• The kindergarten projection was revised downward slightly for 2025-26 to account for this change in policy.

Age as of September 1st of Kindergarten Year

School Year 4 Years Old 5 Years Old 6 Years Old

Total Kindergarten

Enrollment

Share of 4

Year Olds

2021-22 99 566 34 699 14.2%

2022-23 105 502 27 634 16.6%

2023-24 95 505 25 625 15.2%

2024-25 72 527 18 617 11.7%

3-Year Avg (Exclude 2024-25) 100 524 29 653 15.3%

Per Publ ic Act 23-208, Section 1(a) , beginning with the 2024-2025 school year, chi ldren need to turn 5 years old on or before

September 1 in order to be automatica l ly el igible for kindergarten.

Kindergarten Projection Methodology

• Traditionally projections use a “Birth-K ratio” which divides the size of a kindergarten class with its corresponding birth cohort 5-years prior.

• As births increase, Birth-K ratios tend to decrease and vice versa. The static Birth-K ratio approach works well when births are stable.

• However, elevated births beginning in 2021 will be entering kindergarten starting in 2026-27. Using historic Birth-K ratios from smaller birth cohorts to project these kindergarten classes will likely over-project kindergarten enrollment.

• Recommend the “variable Birth-K” approach based on a historic “best fit line.” Modifies the Birth-K ratio based on the size of the birth cohort.

• MP Planning has utilized this methodology successfully in other DRG A and B communities for several years.

Housing Multipliers

• Multipliers developed for the nearly 1,900 under construction, approved, proposed, pending, and planned housing units.

• Applied 0.12 students per unit (excluding age restricted units) based on an analysis of enrollment in existing multi-family developments conducted by the Town’s Planning Department.

• “Discounting” was applied to the multipliers, accounting for the rate of multi-family development already in the baseline projections. Baseline projections already account for nearly 900 new multi-family units over the next ten years. Discounting allows multipliers in excess of the baseline to be added to the projections

• Multipliers were phased in to the projections beginning in 2027-28, with full build out of units anticipated by 2030-31.

• Multipliers were assigned to individual school based on the share of housing pipeline units within each attendance zone.

School Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 K-12 Total K-5 Total 6-8 Total 9-12 Total

2023-24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2024-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2025-26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026-27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2027-28 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 26 12 6 8

2028-29 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 61 22 15 24

2029-30 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 82 33 21 28

2030-31 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 112 45 29 38

2031-32 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 112 45 29 38

2032-33 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 112 45 29 38

2033-34 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 112 45 29 38

2034-35 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 112 45 29 38

Projections Assumptions

These projections are predicated on the following assumptions:

• Pre-K enrollment will remain at current levels at 211 students per year

• Housing, in-migration, and future birth assumptions at the districtwide level will prove accurate.

• Kindergarten will return to a 12-month birth window, although for next year a slightly smaller kindergarten class is expected due to the rollout of a new assessment process.

• Multipliers were added to all three projection models beginning in 2027-28.

• High projections: Assume high birth projections (average 580 annually) and elevated student in-migration of 1.56%, which is higher than the historic 10-year average of 0.9%.

• Medium projections: Assume medium birth projections (average 557 annually), and student migration averages about 1%, slightly higher than the historic 10-year average.

• Low projections: Assume low birth projections (average 533 annually) and student in-migration averages 0.56% which is below the historic average 10-year average.

Districtwide Projections

• Both the High and Medium Models agree, showing growth albeit at different levels, while the low model is projecting flatter enrollment.

• By 2029-30, all three models have a range of 355 students.

• Under the medium model, PK-12 averages

9,253 students over the next decade with a peak of 9,474 students in 2033-34.

• Recent housing conditions, demographics and enrollment in-migration align best with Medium Model and represents the most likely direction.

However, housing conditions and demographic shifts should be monitored.

Districtwide Projections

• Overall PK-12 enrollment is projected to decrease over the next two years, reaching a low of 8,996 students in 2026-27. Enrollment is projected to rebound over the last 8 projected years, peaking at 9,474 students in 2033-34.

• Elementary (K-5) enrollment is projected to grow by 3.8% over the first five years, with growth continuing, albeit at a slower rate of

2.0%, over the final five years.

• Middle School enrolment is projected to increase by 6.2% over the next five years and an additional 3.9% over the last five years as larger elementary cohorts matriculate up.

• High school enrollment is projected to decrease by 6.8% over the next five years as smaller middle school cohorts matriculate up.

Over the last five years, high school enrollment levels off and begins to increase.

Fairfield Public Schools 34

Districtwide Projections (Medium)

Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 PK-12

2024-25 528 617 647 682 753 669 693 690 682 703 646 672 740 738 211 4,061 2,075 2,796 8,932 9,143

2025-26 509 628 644 653 694 757 669 698 688 686 645 641 670 779 211 4,045 2,072 2,735 8,852 9,063

2026-27 546 661 657 650 666 701 756 681 700 698 630 643 638 704 211 4,091 2,079 2,615 8,785 8,996

2027-28 586 688 693 666 665 675 702 772 685 712 643 630 642 672 211 4,089 2,169 2,587 8,845 9,056

2028-29 583 688 722 702 681 673 675 718 777 698 658 645 631 678 211 4,141 2,193 2,612 8,946 9,157

2029-30 572 684 721 731 717 689 674 691 722 790 643 657 643 663 211 4,216 2,203 2,606 9,025 9,236

2030-31 550 672 717 730 747 726 690 690 696 735 729 644 656 677 211 4,282 2,121 2,706 9,109 9,320

2031-32 554 674 703 724 743 754 725 704 693 706 676 727 640 688 211 4,323 2,103 2,731 9,157 9,368

2032-33 557 676 705 710 737 750 753 740 707 703 649 674 723 672 211 4,331 2,150 2,718 9,199 9,410

2033-34 560 678 707 712 723 744 749 768 743 717 646 647 670 759 211 4,313 2,228 2,722 9,263 9,474

2034-35 564 680 709 714 725 730 743 764 771 753 659 644 643 703 211 4,301 2,288 2,649 9,238 9,449

Districtwide Enrollment Projections (Medium Model) by Grade: 2025-26 to 2034-35

Elementary School 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 5-year ∆ 10-year ∆

Burr 347 345 348 347 352 360 366 369 370 366 365 3.7% 5.2%

Dwight 228 220 220 224 228 233 238 240 239 239 239 2.2% 4.8%

Holland Hill 417 422 426 425 413 415 421 423 423 421 420 -0.5% 0.7%

Jennings 280 274 278 279 287 282 287 291 292 291 291 0.7% 3.9%

McKinley 473 478 480 497 504 506 514 519 518 515 513 7.0% 8.5%

Mill Hill 371 384 389 378 381 394 408 414 416 414 412 6.2% 11.1%

North Stratfield 411 406 409 404 411 431 435 442 441 440 439 4.9% 6.8%

Osborn Hill 448 446 455 446 457 456 465 469 471 471 470 1.8% 4.9%

Riverfield 407 410 427 416 423 430 425 429 431 430 428 5.7% 5.2%

Roger Sherman 385 382 383 393 407 421 421 424 426 424 423 9.4% 9.9%

Stratfield 393 377 375 379 377 387 401 402 403 401 400 -1.5% 1.8%

Wade ECC (Pre-K) 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 0.0% 0.0%

Total 4,272 4,256 4,302 4,300 4,352 4,427 4,493 4,534 4,542 4,524 4,512 3.6% 5.6%

Includes Pre-K enrollment at the Warde ECC, Holland Hill, and Strratfield and assumes continuation of 2024-25 levels.

Elementary (PK-5) Projections by School (Medium)

Peak 8-year projected enrollment

Elementary School Projections

• Note that elementary school totals include PK students at Holland Hill, Stratfield, and the Warde ECC (Pre-K only)

• Over the next five years:

• Roger Sherman (+9.4%), McKinley (+7%), Mill Hill (+6.2%) and Riverfield (5.7%) are projected to experience the greatest growth. Burr, Dwight, Jennings, North Stratfield, and Osborn Hill are projected to see more modest growth of less than 5%.

• Holland Hill and Stratfield are projected to decrease slightly.

• All schools are anticipated to see their peak projected 8-year enrollment in either 2031-32 or 2032-33.

• See Appendix B for by school and by grade projections.

charles.warrington Rectangle

Middle School 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 5-year ∆ 10-year ∆

Fairfield Woods 718 746 736 794 805 814 773 759 770 803 824 13.4% 14.8%

Roger Ludlowe 769 749 740 768 768 769 742 754 780 798 821 0.0% 6.8%

Tomlinson 588 577 603 607 620 620 606 590 600 627 643 5.4% 9.4%

Middle Projections by School (Medium)

Peak 8-year projected enrollment

Middle School Projections

• Fairfield Woods is projected to grow by 13.4% over the next five years as larger cohorts enter 6th grade. Peak projected enrollment is 814 students in 2029-30.

• Roger Ludlowe is projected to stay relatively stable over the next five years before growing modestly over the final five years of the projections. Peak projected enrollment is 780 students in 2032-33.

• Tomlinson is projected to grow by 5.4% over the next five years, with modest growth continuing over the final five years.

Peak projected enrollment is 620 students in 2029-30.

• See Appendix B for by school and by grade projections.

High School 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 5-year ∆ 10-year ∆

Fairfield Warde 1,307 1,281 1,198 1,187 1,197 1,194 1,249 1,275 1,267 1,254 1,226 -8.6% -6.2%

Fairfield Ludlowe 1,367 1,332 1,295 1,278 1,293 1,290 1,335 1,334 1,329 1,346 1,301 -5.6% -4.8%

Alternative HS 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 0.0% 0.0%

Outplaced 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 0.0% 0.0%

High School Projections by School (Medium)

High School Projections

• Fairfield Warde is projected to decrease over the next three years to just under 1,200 students before rebounding. Peak projected enrollment is 1,275 students in 2031-32.

• Fairfield Ludlowe is also projected to decrease in the near term, reaching a low of 1,288 students in 2027-28 before rebounding. Peak projected enrollment is 1,335 students in 2030-31.

• The number of students in the alternative high school program (Walter Fitzgerald Campus) was held constant at 73 students and outplaced students were held constant at 49 students based on 2024-25 levels.

Fairfield Public Schools 38

Appendix A:

Districtwide Projections

Fairfield Public Schools 39

Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 PK-12

2024-25 528 617 647 682 753 669 693 690 682 703 646 672 740 738 211 4,061 2,075 2,796 8,932 9,143

2025-26 509 618 642 650 692 757 665 702 689 688 642 641 666 773 211 4,024 2,079 2,722 8,825 9,036

2026-27 546 661 643 645 660 695 752 674 701 695 628 637 635 696 211 4,056 2,070 2,596 8,722 8,933

2027-28 586 688 690 648 657 665 693 764 675 709 637 625 633 666 211 4,041 2,148 2,561 8,750 8,961

2028-29 583 688 718 695 660 661 662 705 765 684 651 636 623 665 211 4,084 2,154 2,575 8,813 9,024

2029-30 572 684 718 724 706 664 659 675 706 774 627 647 631 652 211 4,155 2,155 2,557 8,867 9,078

2030-31 534 661 714 724 736 712 662 672 677 715 710 625 643 661 211 4,209 2,064 2,639 8,912 9,123

2031-32 534 661 688 718 734 740 708 673 672 683 654 704 618 672 211 4,249 2,028 2,648 8,925 9,136

2032-33 533 660 688 691 728 738 736 719 673 678 624 649 697 645 211 4,241 2,070 2,615 8,926 9,137

2033-34 533 660 687 691 700 732 734 747 719 679 620 619 642 728 211 4,204 2,145 2,609 8,958 9,169

2034-35 533 660 687 690 700 703 728 745 747 725 621 615 613 670 211 4,168 2,217 2,519 8,904 9,115

Districtwide Projections (Low)

Districtwide Enrollment Projections (Low Model) by Grade: 2025-26 to 2034-35

Fairfield Public Schools 40

Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 PK-12

2024-25 528 617 647 682 753 669 693 690 682 703 646 672 740 738 211 4,061 2,075 2,796 8,932 9,143

2025-26 509 631 648 657 699 764 672 709 696 695 649 647 673 781 211 4,071 2,100 2,750 8,921 9,132

2026-27 546 661 663 658 673 709 767 687 715 709 641 650 648 710 211 4,131 2,111 2,649 8,891 9,102

2027-28 586 688 697 675 676 685 714 787 694 731 656 644 653 686 211 4,135 2,212 2,639 8,986 9,197

2028-29 583 688 725 709 694 687 689 733 796 710 679 661 649 693 211 4,192 2,239 2,682 9,113 9,324

2029-30 572 684 725 738 728 705 692 709 741 813 658 681 663 685 211 4,272 2,263 2,687 9,222 9,433

2030-31 565 681 721 738 757 741 710 712 718 758 754 662 684 701 211 4,348 2,188 2,801 9,337 9,548

2031-32 573 686 715 732 755 768 744 728 719 731 700 755 662 721 211 4,400 2,178 2,838 9,416 9,627

2032-33 580 691 721 726 749 766 771 763 735 732 675 701 755 698 211 4,424 2,230 2,829 9,483 9,694

2033-34 587 695 726 732 743 760 769 791 770 749 676 676 701 796 211 4,425 2,310 2,849 9,584 9,795

2034-35 594 699 730 737 749 754 763 789 798 784 692 677 676 739 211 4,432 2,371 2,784 9,587 9,798

Districtwide Projections (High)

Districtwide Enrollment Projections (High Model) by Grade: 2025-26 to 2034-35

Fairfield Public Schools 41

Appendix B:

Individual School Projection (Medium)

Fairfield Public Schools 42

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 56 58 55 55 68 53 345 0 345

Dwight 34 33 37 39 37 40 220 0 220

Holland Hill 58 59 64 77 70 62 390 32 422

Jennings 43 40 54 40 52 45 274 0 274

McKinley 69 76 81 92 75 85 478 0 478

Mill Hill 57 54 59 67 83 64 384 0 384

North Stratfield 64 65 56 66 83 72 406 0 406

Osborn Hill 70 70 75 75 87 69 446 0 446

Riverfield 62 74 66 66 84 58 410 0 410

Roger Sherman 63 72 58 60 64 65 382 0 382

Stratfield 52 43 48 57 54 56 310 67 377

TOTAL 628 644 653 694 757 669 4045 99 4144

Difference 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 59 58 56 55 54 66 348 0 348

Dwight 35 37 34 39 38 37 220 0 220

Holland Hill 61 59 61 64 79 70 394 32 426

Jennings 45 44 41 55 43 50 278 0 278

McKinley 74 74 79 85 91 77 480 0 480

Mill Hill 60 60 55 63 67 84 389 0 389

North Stratfield 68 66 66 56 70 83 409 0 409

Osborn Hill 73 75 70 76 73 88 455 0 455

Riverfield 65 65 75 68 67 87 427 0 427

Roger Sherman 66 66 70 58 61 62 383 0 383

Stratfield 55 53 43 47 58 52 308 67 375

TOTAL 661 657 650 666 701 756 4091 99 4190

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 62 62 57 57 55 54 347 0 347

Dwight 37 38 38 35 38 38 224 0 224

Holland Hill 64 62 61 61 66 79 393 32 425

Jennings 47 46 45 42 58 41 279 0 279

McKinley 76 79 77 84 87 94 497 0 497

Mill Hill 63 64 61 59 63 68 378 0 378

North Stratfield 70 70 68 67 59 70 404 0 404

Osborn Hill 75 78 75 71 74 73 446 0 446

Riverfield 68 69 66 76 69 68 416 0 416

Roger Sherman 69 69 65 71 59 60 393 0 393

Stratfield 57 56 53 42 47 57 312 67 379

TOTAL 688 693 666 665 675 702 4089 99 4188

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2025-26

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2026-27

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2027-28

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 62 65 60 57 55 53 352 0 352

Dwight 37 40 39 40 34 38 228 0 228

Holland Hill 63 65 64 61 62 66 381 32 413

Jennings 47 47 47 46 44 56 287 0 287

McKinley 78 85 81 83 86 91 504 0 504

Mill Hill 63 66 66 65 58 63 381 0 381

North Stratfield 70 72 72 68 71 58 411 0 411

Osborn Hill 76 81 78 76 70 76 457 0 457

Riverfield 67 71 70 67 78 70 423 0 423

Roger Sherman 69 72 69 66 73 58 407 0 407

Stratfield 56 58 56 52 42 46 310 67 377

TOTAL 688 722 702 681 673 675 4141 99 4240

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 62 65 63 60 56 54 360 0 360

Dwight 37 40 41 41 40 34 233 0 233

Holland Hill 63 64 66 64 63 63 383 32 415

Jennings 46 48 48 48 49 43 282 0 282

McKinley 77 83 88 86 83 89 506 0 506

Mill Hill 63 68 69 71 65 58 394 0 394

North Stratfield 69 72 74 73 72 71 431 0 431

Osborn Hill 75 79 81 79 73 69 456 0 456

Riverfield 67 72 72 71 68 80 430 0 430

Roger Sherman 69 73 71 69 67 72 421 0 421

Stratfield 56 57 58 55 53 41 320 67 387

TOTAL 684 721 731 717 689 674 4216 99 4315

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 61 64 64 63 59 55 366 0 366

Dwight 35 39 41 43 41 39 238 0 238

Holland Hill 61 63 66 67 67 65 389 32 421

Jennings 45 47 48 49 51 47 287 0 287

McKinley 77 85 86 93 88 85 514 0 514

Mill Hill 62 66 69 74 71 66 408 0 408

North Stratfield 68 71 74 75 75 72 435 0 435

Osborn Hill 73 81 81 82 75 73 465 0 465

Riverfield 67 71 73 73 72 69 425 0 425

Roger Sherman 68 73 71 71 71 67 421 0 421

Stratfield 55 57 57 57 56 52 334 67 401

TOTAL 672 717 730 747 726 690 4282 99 4381

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2029-30

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2030-31

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2028-29

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 62 62 63 63 62 57 369 0 369

Dwight 36 38 40 43 42 41 240 0 240

Holland Hill 62 62 65 66 69 67 391 32 423

Jennings 46 46 48 49 52 50 291 0 291

McKinley 75 83 85 91 94 91 519 0 519

Mill Hill 62 66 68 74 73 71 414 0 414

North Stratfield 68 70 73 75 79 77 442 0 442

Osborn Hill 73 78 81 82 79 76 469 0 469

Riverfield 67 70 73 73 74 72 429 0 429

Roger Sherman 68 72 71 71 73 69 424 0 424

Stratfield 55 56 57 56 57 54 335 67 402

TOTAL 674 703 724 743 754 725 4323 99 4422

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 61 63 61 62 62 61 370 0 370

Dwight 36 39 39 42 42 41 239 0 239

Holland Hill 61 63 64 65 68 70 391 32 423

Jennings 46 47 47 49 52 51 292 0 292

McKinley 77 82 84 90 91 94 518 0 518

Mill Hill 62 66 68 73 73 74 416 0 416

North Stratfield 68 70 71 74 79 79 441 0 441

Osborn Hill 75 77 79 82 79 79 471 0 471

Riverfield 67 70 71 73 74 76 431 0 431

Roger Sherman 68 72 70 71 73 72 426 0 426

Stratfield 55 56 56 56 57 56 336 67 403

TOTAL 676 705 710 737 750 753 4331 99 4430

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 61 62 61 60 61 61 366 0 366

Dwight 36 39 40 41 42 41 239 0 239

Holland Hill 62 62 64 64 68 69 389 32 421

Jennings 46 47 48 48 51 51 291 0 291

McKinley 77 84 85 88 90 91 515 0 515

Mill Hill 62 66 67 73 72 74 414 0 414

North Stratfield 69 70 72 72 78 79 440 0 440

Osborn Hill 75 79 79 80 79 79 471 0 471

Riverfield 67 70 71 72 74 76 430 0 430

Roger Sherman 68 72 69 70 73 72 424 0 424

Stratfield 55 56 56 55 56 56 334 67 401

TOTAL 678 707 712 723 744 749 4313 99 4412

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2031-32

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2032-33

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2033-34

School K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5th PK PK-5

Burr 62 62 61 61 59 60 365 0 365

Dwight 36 39 40 42 41 41 239 0 239

Holland Hill 62 63 64 64 66 69 388 32 420

Jennings 46 47 48 49 51 50 291 0 291

McKinley 77 83 83 89 90 91 513 0 513

Mill Hill 62 66 68 72 71 73 412 0 412

North Stratfield 69 71 72 73 76 78 439 0 439

Osborn Hill 74 80 80 80 77 79 470 0 470

Riverfield 68 70 72 71 72 75 428 0 428

Roger Sherman 69 72 70 69 71 72 423 0 423

Stratfield 55 56 56 55 56 55 333 67 400

TOTAL 680 709 714 725 730 743 4301 99 4400

Fairfield Public Schools

Elementary School Enrollment Projections 2034-35

Elementary School Projections (Medium)

Fairfield Public Schools 43

Middle School Projections (Medium)

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 262 230 254 746

Roger Ludlowe 237 258 254 749

Tomlinson 199 200 178 577

TOTAL 698 688 686 2,072

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 246 257 233 736

Roger Ludlowe 238 241 261 740

Tomlinson 197 202 204 603

TOTAL 681 700 698 2,079

681 700 698 2079

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 289 246 259 794

Roger Ludlowe 284 239 245 768

Tomlinson 199 200 208 607

TOTAL 772 685 712 2,169

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2025-26

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2026-27

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2027-28

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 268 289 248 805

Roger Ludlowe 240 285 243 768

Tomlinson 210 203 207 620

TOTAL 718 777 698 2,193

713 772 693 2178

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 255 268 291 814

Roger Ludlowe 240 240 289 769

Tomlinson 196 214 210 620

TOTAL 691 722 790 2,203

684 715 783 2182

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 246 256 271 773

Roger Ludlowe 257 241 244 742

Tomlinson 187 199 220 606

TOTAL 690 696 735 2,121

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2029-30

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2028-29

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2030-31

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 255 246 258 759

Roger Ludlowe 253 257 244 754

Tomlinson 196 190 204 590

TOTAL 704 693 706 2,103

695 683 696 2074

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 268 255 247 770

Roger Ludlowe 266 253 261 780

Tomlinson 206 199 195 600

TOTAL 740 707 703 2,150

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 277 268 258 803

Roger Ludlowe 276 266 256 798

Tomlinson 215 209 203 627

TOTAL 768 743 717 2,228

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2033-34

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2032-33

Fairfield Public Schools

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2031-32

School 6 7 8 6-8 Total

Fairfield Woods 276 277 271 824

Roger Ludlowe 276 276 269 821

Tomlinson 212 218 213 643

TOTAL 764 771 753 2,288

Middle School Enrollment Projections 2034-35

Fairfield Public Schools 44

High School Projections (Medium)

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 312 308 306 355 1,281

Fairfield Ludlowe 325 317 336 354 1,332

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 645 640 671 779 2,735

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 287 304 303 304 1,198

Fairfield Ludlowe 335 324 306 330 1,295

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 630 643 638 704 2,615

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 304 282 300 301 1,187

Fairfield Ludlowe 331 333 313 301 1,278

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 643 630 642 672 2,587

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2025-26

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2026-27

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2027-28

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 321 301 276 299 1,197

Fairfield Ludlowe 329 329 326 309 1,293

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 658 645 631 678 2,612

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 312 314 295 273 1,194

Fairfield Ludlowe 323 328 319 320 1,290

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 643 657 643 663 2,606

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 337 307 311 294 1,249

Fairfield Ludlowe 384 322 316 313 1,335

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 729 644 656 677 2,706

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2029-30

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2028-29

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2030-31

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 335 330 302 308 1,275

Fairfield Ludlowe 333 382 309 310 1,334

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 676 727 640 688 2,731

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 314 328 326 299 1,267

Fairfield Ludlowe 327 331 368 303 1,329

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 649 674 723 672 2,718

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 300 307 322 325 1,254

Fairfield Ludlowe 338 325 319 364 1,346

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 646 647 670 759 2,722

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2031-32

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2033-34

Fairfield Public Schools

High School Enrollment Projections 2032-33

School 9 10 11 12 9-12 Total

Fairfield Warde 313 293 301 319 1,226

Fairfield Ludlowe 338 336 313 314 1,301

Alternative HS + Outplaced 8 15 29 70 122

TOTAL 659 644 643 703 2,649

High School Enrollment Projections 2034-35