2026_Sacramento_County_Business_Districts_-_Economic_Modeling.pdf

Sacramento County Business Districts:

Economic Modeling

Sacramento County Business Districts:

Economic Modeling

A Playbook for Policy Interventions and Strategic Investment

A Playbook for Policy Interventions and Strategic Investment

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3 How Economic Modeling Supports Our Strategic Analysis

4 Under the Hood: Tools for Economic Modeling

6 Economic Modeling Outcomes:

Fulton Avenue Association Carmichael Improvement District 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District Arden + Howe Business Alliance Florin Road Partnership Antelope Business Community

33 Recommendations:

Implementation Through Dollar Investments

Public Dollars: A Toolkit of Incentives Private Dollars:

Exploring Community Development Funding Streams

Appendix and Full District Modeling Reports40 Data Sources: Numbers Used to Build Out Events Full Modeling Reports Fulton Avenue Association Carmichael Improvement District 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District Arden + Howe Business Alliance Florin Road Partnership Antelope Business Community

Contact Information67

HOW ECONOMIC MODELING SUPPORTS OUR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Community Strong Strategies’ approach to economic modeling begins with a simple but powerful question: How can dollars drawn into a community be spent to grow the local economy?

The reality of building an inclusive local economy is that no community can grow in a vacuum.

Dollars must be drawn in from elsewhere to sustain a community’s commercial and civic ecosystem and help it thrive. Sustaining and growing a Property and Business Improvement District therefore requires bringing money in from outside of it, either through private industry opening new businesses that attract visitors, or mixed-use multi-family housing developments bringing in new residents who may work elsewhere but spend their earnings locally. These direct investments create a ripple effect: Businesses purchase from other businesses, households spend money, and these transactions generate indirect and induced economic activity that compounds over time.

The Strategic Analysis that precedes this Economic Modeling followed a deliberate sequence. We began with a Community and Land Use Profile, gathering data on the surrounding community and the physical characteristics of properties within each District. From there, we identified the influencing factors that shape whether certain types of businesses would succeed, given the District's demographics and available space. Building on those findings and informed by industry and community trends in corridor activation and placemaking, we developed a set of Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions designed to draw more people and dollars into each District.

These priorities and actions are not levers to pull in isolation. They are interdependent, and their power lies in how they reinforce one another. Attracting new businesses is only a viable ask if those businesses can see they are entering a market with momentum. Placemaking events serve as both market testing and proof of concept, demonstrating to prospective restaurateurs, retailers, and service providers that visitors will show up and spend money. Mixed-use infill development creates a new live-work-shop ecosystem where both businesses and events can take root and grow. And while gateway signage and digital branding tools will not move the needle on their own, they become meaningful multipliers once the other strategies are in motion, helping to ensure that the identity being built is visible to visitors drawn in.

To quantify the potential of these strategies, we modeled each Strategic Priority and Implementation Action as an economic event, illustrating the number of jobs, the dollar amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution, and the County tax revenue that a particular action, such as opening a new restaurant or developing a mixed-use building, would support. The results of that modeling, in turn, point toward specific policy interventions the County should consider to incentivize and implement these strategies, such as rezoning retail-only properties for mixed-use development or prioritizing businesses that fill market gaps within the District. Finally, to help actualize these activation strategies and policy interventions, we developed a suite of funding recommendations, including a toolkit of incentives (e.g., business attraction grants and infill development fee offsets), as well as an exploration of community development funding streams and their potential to catalyze private investment.

This is the County's playbook: A guide to the policy interventions and public-private investment strategies needed to bring each District's Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions to life.

Community Strong Strategies uses IMPLAN, an economic modeling software that allows us to model specific activities ("events") to illustrate the number of jobs, dollar amount of GDP contribution, and tax revenue for the County that a given action would support.

The foundational concept behind this approach is the input-output model, which recognizes that all industries, households, and government within an economy are connected through buy-sell relationships. Because of this interconnectedness, any economic activity generates a ripple effect, quantified by the dollar or jobs value that each round of spending supports. Essentially, it captures the relationship between an industry or institution and its supply chain.

For each of the six Districts, the Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions we model fall into four categories:

1.Business Attraction, which involves drawing new businesses to the District that fill existing market gaps, diversify offerings, and contribute to its unique identity;

2.Placemaking, which includes events, such as festivals or outdoor markets, that draw visitors to the District for a specific purpose and help create a sense of place and community within the District;

3.Adaptive Reuse and Infill Development, which encompasses longer-term efforts to adapt or develop underutilized spaces within the District; and

4.Marketing and Branding, which includes physical signage and digital tools that uplift the District's identity and offerings.

Generally, for each District, we model one event per category. There are, however, certain exceptions. For example, the 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District does not have a placemaking event, because of the broader recommendation for this District to develop an identity rooted in its potential as a hub for industry, rather than a focus on consumer-oriented draws and activities.

Modeling an event in IMPLAN follows three steps:

UNDER THE HOOD: TOOLS FOR ECONOMIC MODELING

We select a geographic area that includes the ZIP codes that make up each District

SELECT THE GEOGRAPHY

We build out the event by defining the change in production that took place, whether that is the opening of a new restaurant, a community market, a new housing development, or the installation of a sign.

DEFINE THE EVENT

We run the analysis and interpret the results, with a primary focus on Value Added and Employment, which together illustrate an event's overall contribution to the local economy, alongside its impact on County-level tax revenue.

INTERPRET THE RESULTS

MODELING AN EVENT

Modeling an event captures four key economic indicators:

1.Output – Revenue or sales 2.Value Added – The contribution to GDP, calculated as output minus intermediate inputs 3.Labor Income – Employee compensation and proprietor income 4.Employment – The full-time and part-time annual average

The modeling also produces tax impact results at the Federal, State, and County levels, including “Sub County Special Districts” (i.e.,fire and school districts) and “Sub County General” (i.e., cities and townships).

It is equally important to understand what economic modeling does not tell us. First, the results are illustrative, not predictive. They can be affected by sudden disruptions that alter real-world outcomes, and their reliability depends on both the quality of the inputs and the precision of the available data. Second, economic impact does not capture the full picture of value. Placemaking events are a useful example: they tend to generate comparatively lower economic returns, but are critical to elevating the identity of a District and cultivating a sense of belonging among community members. Both dimensions matter, and the modeling results should be read with that broader context in mind.

Although an event in an unincorporated county area doesn't directly generate city tax revenue, it can still produce it indirectly. The IMPLAN model captures total economic impact, meaning that supplier transactions and employee spending often flow into neighboring incorporated cities, triggering municipal-level taxes in the process.

Why do we see Sub County General tax impacts for events that take place in unincorporated areas of the County?

Economic Modeling Outcomes

Economic Modeling Outcomes Modeling the Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions of Each of the Six Districts

Modeling the Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions of Each of the Six Districts

Identity: Building on its historical, auto-centric identity and using that as a leverage point to attract additional, diverse businesses.

Assets: A strong foundation rooted in the District's auto-centric history, including a dense cluster of car dealerships, repair shops, and related businesses, which can be leveraged to attract complementary retail and dining.

Established auto dealerships and service businesses along the corridor Large parking lots and open spaces suitable for community events Proximity to major intersections (e.g., Marconi and Fulton, Alta Arden and Fulton)

Business Attraction Actively market sites to retail or restaurants that complement the auto-centric corridor and fill gaps in the market.

Placemaking Events Build on existing events, like the annual CruiseFest, and use parking lots for large-scale, car-centric community events that also introduce attendees to other district businesses (e.g., "Cars & Coffee" weekends or classic car nights, EV showcases with tech demos and food trucks).

Infill Development Encourage redevelopment of freestanding, single-tenant buildings into multi-tenant retail centers or shared spaces.Recruit developers for mixed-use projects, especially on large, single-owner parcels, to leverage expanded zoning under the 2011 SPA, which permits apartment multi-family dwellings.

Marketing and Branding

Install additional branded gateway signage at key entry points (e.g., Marconi and Fulton, Alta Arden and Fulton). Develop a digital directory or map, accessible by QR code, for real-time navigation of businesses and events.

RECAP: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS

Fulton Avenue AssociationFulton Avenue Association Economic Modeling Outcomes

$0 $3,000,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$1,578,274.37

$1,855,350.36

$2,851,935.59

49.46

Employment:

$0 $45,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$24,330.63

$40,044.36

$21,939.69

The following is a high-level overview and snapshot of the events modeled for the Fulton Avenue Association District, and the economic indicator and tax results for each event. To see a detailed breakdown of how those events were constructed, see page 43 for the District’s full modeling report.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This Business Attraction event models the opening of three new businesses: a limited-service café, a thrift store, and a car wash. Annually, opening these three new businesses might contribute $1,855,350.36 to GDP, support ~50 jobs, and generate $86,314.68 in local government tax revenue, with $61,984.05 going to the County and its special districts.

TAX RESULTS

Attracting new businesses:

Limited-service café Thrift store Car wash

This Placemaking event models two gatherings: the existing annual CruiseFest, hosted by the Fulton Avenue Association, alongside a hypothetical "Cars & Coffee" weekend event proposed as part of the District's Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions. CruiseFest is a family-friendly event that showcases hundreds of vintage and classic cars, paired with food, music, and art, and draws approximately 10,000 attendees each year. The proposed "Cars & Coffee" would offer a smaller-scale but more regular counterpart: A monthly hybrid of cruise fest, live music, and outdoor market that brings together cars, food, music, and art on a recurring basis.

In addition to its own draw, this monthly event could build anticipation and momentum leading into the annual CruiseFest. Each annual CruiseFest event, as it exists today, might contribute $133,248.02 to GDP, support about 2 jobs, and generate $10,373.67 in local government tax revenue, with $7,448.15 going to the County and its special districts. Each hypothetical monthly “Cars and Coffee” Weekend might contribute $66,624.01 to GDP, support about 2 jobs, and generate $5,186.83 in local government tax revenue, with $3,724.08 going to the County and its special districts. It is important to know that the potential revenue of these placemaking events do not include any secondary results of customers returning to the district to shop after attending an event.

RESULTS: MODELING FOUR CATEGORIES OF EVENTS IN THE FULTON AVENUE ASSOCIATION DISTRICT

$0 $5,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$2,925.51 $1,462.76

$4,811.40 $2,405.70

$2,636.75 $1,318.37

$0 $250,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$75,222.39 $37,611.2

$133,248.02 $66,624.01

$240,002.12 $120,001.06

ECONOMIC INDICATORS TAX RESULTS

Existing CruiseFest

Hypothetical“Cars and Coffee”

Existing Employment = 2.11 Aspirational Employment = 1.05

Fulton Avenue Association

Per Person Spending $15

Number of Visitors 30,000 (or ~577 per week)

Per Person Spending $20

Number of Visitors 30,000 (or ~577 per week)

Per Person Spending $15

Number of Visitors 30,000 (or ~577 per week)

This Infill Development event contemplates the construction and operation of a multifamily, mixed-use property. Three years of construction and one year of operations would contribute $36,626,703.63 to GDP, support ~243 jobs, and generate $690,843.84 in local government tax revenue, with $496,240.11 going to the County and its special districts

To assess the cost effectiveness of a Marketing and Branding event, such as the installation of a new sign, the event must generate at least $1,200,000 in output within the District to justify its cost. The following event generates $1,261,985.03 in annual output:

Therefore, in one year, it would take ~577 visitors a week to limited-service cafés in the District, each visitor spending at least $15; ~577 visitors a week to thrift stores in the District, each visitor spending at least $20; and ~577 visitors a week to car washes in the District, each visitor spending at least $15, to make-up the cost of the sign in sales tax revenue to the County, and justify its cost.

LIMITED-SERVICE CAFÉ

THRIFT STORE

CAR WASH

$1,261,985.03 Annual Output

Fulton Avenue Association Economic Modeling Outcomes

$0 $60,000,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$22,583,476.63

$36,626,703.63

$59,167,150.68

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

242.52

Employment:

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

$0 $350,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$194,603.73

$320,633.74

$175,606.37

TAX RESULTS

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

Supporting the District’s Auto-Centric Identity While Incentivizing Diversification to Draw Visitors and Spending

Fulton Avenue Association’s identity is anchored in its historical concentration of auto-related businesses (e.g., dealerships, parts stores, and repair shops) that have established the corridor as a regional destination for these goods and services. This auto-centric character is also supported by commercial anchors like Town & Country Village, which draw consistent pass-through traffic from consumers doing everyday errands. Community events like the annual CruiseFest also reinforce this auto-centric identity, and incoming businesses, such as a Quick Quack Car Wash and Taco Bell Drive-Thru, signal its continued momentum. The challenge, however, is that this alone is not enough to draw outside visitors to the District as a destination.

In the last decade, many commercial corridors in unincorporated Sacramento County have undergone a shift from being community anchors to pass-through corridors. Fulton Avenue Association is no exception to this trend. The District’s existing property vacancies reflect the limits of relying solely on its auto-centric, pass-through character to consistently bring in consumers and spending. The goal is to leverage this character as a starting point to diversify the District’s offerings.

The 2011 Fulton Avenue SPA Ordinance laid the groundwork for this diversification by rezoning all properties within the District to expand their permissible uses, and identifying key intersections (e.g., at Fulton and Marconi, El Camino, and Alta-Arden) for higher-density, vertical, mixed-use development. This shift creates the regulatory conditions for a more varied business environment blending retail, office, and residential uses.

For the County, the present opportunity is to activate that existing zoning by working with the District to promote the SPA's by-right uses to developers, and using vacancy data proactively to recruit tenants that fill identified market gaps. To translate this into sustained impact, the County could also deploy direct financial and operational support incentives for potential new businesses. A small business incentives package, combining facade and space improvement grants, low-interest or forgivable loans, property tax abatements, rent subsidies, and business license fee offsets, would lower the barriers for new entrants and help ensure that incoming businesses have the runway needed to establish themselves in the corridor.

RECOMMENDATIONS: IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH POLICY INTERVENTIONS

Fulton Avenue Association

Identity: Strengthening its identity around family, community, and outdoor-oriented uses, particularly the American River Parkway and the Sacramento Sports Center relocation.

Assets: A family-oriented community with access to the American River Parkway and the incoming Sacramento Sports Center, which together provide a strong foundation for attracting complementary businesses and activating the District.

American River Parkway, a major regional recreational asset Sacramento Sports Center, relocating to the District Milagro Centre and other commercial anchors

Business Attraction Actively market sites to family-style sit-down restaurants, youth recreation-focused businesses, health and wellness cafés; retail and services that support the Sacramento Sports Center's clientele (e.g., athletic equipment and uniforms stores, or wellness spas); and other businesses that fill gaps in the market (e.g., services like salons or specialty entertainment spaces).

Placemaking Pilot community activities such as outdoor movie nights, seasonal farmers/pop-up markets, or outdoor recreation events in partnership with anchor amenities (e.g., the Carmichael Library and Carmichael Park) and local businesses (e.g., the soon-to-be relocated Sacramento Sports Center).

Infill Development Market mixed-use projects to developers, positioning the District as a location for boutique apartments over street-level retail.

Explore conversion of single-tenant retail into multi-tenant centers, such as subdividing the Big Lots site into smaller specialty shops.

Marketing and Branding

Develop signage, maps, and digital guides that clearly show how visitors can access the American River Parkway trail from the Carmichael District.

Explore additional or improved trail connections that directly link the District to the American River Parkway.

Install gateway signage and banners highlighting the District as a hub for family, food, and community.

RECAP: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS

Carmichael Improvement DistrictCarmichael Improvement District

$0 $4,500,000

Value Added

Output

$2,074,743.34

$3,072,259.14

$4,262,942.80

$0 $100,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$57,001.97

$93,743.91

$51,374.26

63.93

Employment:

The following is a high-level overview and snapshot of the events modeled for the Carmichael Improvement District, and the economic indicator and tax results for each event. To see a detailed breakdown of how those events were constructed, see page 47 for the District’s full modeling report.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This Business Attraction event models the opening of four new businesses: a full-service restaurant, a store for athletic equipment and uniforms, a wellness spa, and a miniature golf course. Annually, opening these four new businesses might contribute $3,072,259.14 to GDP, support ~64 jobs, and generate $202,120.14 in local government tax revenue, with $145,118.17 going to the County and its special districts.

TAX RESULTS

Attracting new businesses:

Full-service restaurant Store for athletic equipment Wellness spa Miniature golf course

This Placemaking event models the existing Concerts in Carmichael Park alongside an expanded, all-day version of the event. Hosted by the Carmichael Recreation and Park District on Saturday evenings in May and June, the concerts draw approximately 2,000 attendees and feature food trucks. The proposed expanded version would begin mid-day and build on this foundation with additional musical acts or other entertainment, such as outdoor movie screenings hosted by the Carmichael Library, as well as activities like a showcase partnership with the Sacramento Sports Center, and additional retail and food and drink pop-ups highlighting local businesses. The expanded version would draw an additional 3,000 attendees.

Each concert event, as it exists today, might contribute $26,463.26 to GDP, support less than half a job, and generate $2,043.48 in local government tax revenue, with $1,467.20 going to the County and its special districts. Each hypothetical expanded event might contribute $66,158.16 to GDP, support about 1 job, and generate $5,108.69 in local government tax revenue, with $3,668.00 going to the County and its special districts. It is important to know that the potential revenue of these placemaking events do not include any secondary results of customers returning to the district to shop after attending an event.

RESULTS: MODELING FOUR CATEGORIES OF EVENTS IN THE CARMICHAEL IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT

Carmichael Improvement District Economic Modeling Outcomes

TAX RESULTSECONOMIC INDICATORS

$0 $2,500

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$576.28 $1,440.69

$947.79 $2,369.49

$519.41 $1,298.51

$0 $120,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$15,150.58 $37,876.46

$26,463.26 $66,158.16

$47,361.00 $118,403.38

Existing Employment = .43 Aspirational Employment = 1.07

Existing Concerts in Carmichael Park

Hypothetical Expanded Version

Per Person Spending $40

Number of Visitors 13,500 (or ~260 per week)

Per Person Spending $40

Number of Visitors 13,500 (or ~260 per week)

Per Person Spending $40

Number of Visitors 13,500 (or ~260 per week)

This Infill Development event contemplates the construction and operation of a multifamily, mixed-use property. Three years of construction and one year of operations would contribute $36,308,712.40 to GDP, support ~241 jobs, and generate $670,423.57 in local government tax revenue, with $481,594.09 going to the County and its special districts.

To assess the cost effectiveness of a Marketing and Branding event, such as the installation of a new sign, the event must generate at least $1,200,000 in output within the District to justify its cost. The following event generates $1,351,258.21 in annual output:

Therefore, in one year, it would take ~260 visitors a week to full-service restaurants in the District, each visitor spending at least $40; ~260 visitors a week to athletic equipment and uniform stores in the District, each visitor spending at least $40; and ~260 visitors a week to wellness spas in the District, each visitor spending at least $40, to make-up the cost of the sign in sales tax revenue to the County, and justify its cost.

FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANT

ATHLETIC EQUIPMENT & UNIFORMS STORE

WELLNESS SPA

$1,351,258.21 Annual Output

Carmichael Improvement District Economic Modeling Outcomes

$0 $350,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$188,829.48

$311,176.71

$170,417.39

TAX RESULTS

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

$0 $60,000,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$22,452,167.36

$36,308,712.40

$58,735,794.51

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Employment:

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

240.76

Increasing Visitors and Spending While Maintaining the Community and Family-Oriented Character

The Carmichael Improvement District's identity is built around family, community, and outdoor-oriented uses. Its proximity to the American River Parkway, and the presence of anchors like Milagro Centre and the future Sacramento Sports Center, create a draw for families. The challenge for the District is not one of identity, but one of reach. Although the District is supported to some extent by its surrounding communities, it does not generate the volume of outside visitors and spending needed to sustain and grow its commercial base long-term. The goal is to amplify what the District already does well, and leverage it into a true regional destination.

The zoning to support this already exists. The Main Street District SPA permits retail, dining, office, and multi-family uses by right. It mirrors a broader trend across commercial corridors in unincorporated Sacramento County over the past decade, where communities have used rezoning as a tool to reverse the gradual erosion of neighborhood character and reclaim corridors that had drifted toward pass-through functionality. The goal is to draw investment from outside the District, through new businesses that attract visitors and infill development that adds residents who, even if they commute to work elsewhere, spend locally. Similar to the approach for the Fulton Avenue Association, the opportunity for the County is to deploy direct financial and operational support for businesses filling identified market gaps. A small business incentives package, combining facade and space improvement grants, low-interest or forgivable loans, property tax abatements, rent subsidies, and business license fee offsets, would lower the barriers for new entrants and help ensure that incoming businesses have the runway needed to establish themselves in the corridor. In light of the Sacramento Sports Center's future relocation, this would be particularly effective in attracting complementary businesses, like family-oriented dining, athletic equipment and uniforms stores, health and wellness-focused cafés, and wellness spas.

In parallel, the County could also continue investment in improving connections between the District and the American River Parkway. In the near term, this can include signage, maps, and digital guides with QR codes linking visitors to trailheads, bike parking, and family-friendly routes from the Fair Oaks Boulevard corridor to the Parkway. Over time, exploring improved pedestrian and bike connectors would strengthen the District's positioning as a gateway to one of the region's most valued outdoor amenities.

Finally, there is also an opportunity for the County to explore and incentivize infill development.

The Winding Ranch Town Center project, a 58,000-square-foot retail development at Manzanita Avenue and Winding Way, previously the location of Crestview Lanes, includes a proposal for 80 single-family residential homes alongside its commercial space. It illustrates how mixed-use infill can simultaneously add rooftops and retail in a format that suits Carmichael's community scale.

These new residents become a built-in customer base that would complement strategies to draw visitors from outside the District. By deploying an infill development incentives package that combines building permit and impact fee offsets with regulatory incentives (e.g., reduced parking minimums, lot coverage requirements, and setbacks) to lower the financial and procedural barriers for prospective developers, the County could signal to private investment that it is a willing partner, lowering the risk calculus for developers who might otherwise choose a more shovel-ready location.

RECOMMENDATIONS: IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH POLICY INTERVENTIONS

Carmichael Improvement District

Identity: Develop an identity rooted in its potential as a hub for industry, rather than competing with consumer-oriented corridors elsewhere in the County.

Assets: An industrial-zoned District with available large-format structures, and proximity to McClellan Park, well-suited to attract fabrication, logistics, commercial vehicle support, and other industry-aligned uses.

Available large-format structures Proximity to McClellan Park and its ecosystem of industry tenants Zoning suitable for fabrication, warehousing, distribution, and contractor uses

Business Attraction Identify which industries and corresponding businesses best align with available physical space, prioritizing uses not impacted by barriers that deter consumers (e.g., the train track separating the District from McClellan Park).

Target businesses in sectors such as fabrication or manufacturing; industrial labs;

transportation and logistics (e.g., warehousing, distribution); commercial vehicle support (e.g., truck yards for parking, loading/unloading, refueling, and maintenance); contractor yards; and training facilities.

Placemaking N/A. Because of the broader recommendation for this District to develop an identity rooted in its potential as a hub for industry, rather than a focus on consumer-oriented draws and activities, this District does not have Strategic Priorities and Implementation Actions specific to placemaking (i.e., events, such as festivals or outdoor markets, that draw visitors to the District for a specific purpose and help create a sense of place and community within the District).

Infill Development Create and offer incentives for businesses to locate in the District and adapt existing structures (e.g., fee offsets, accelerated permitting for industry-aligned uses).

Marketing and Branding

Prioritize small but visible upgrades (e.g., murals or painted walls, targeted cleanup efforts) to improve the District’s image and appearance without minimizing its industrial purpose.

Note: Because this District's identity should be rooted in industry rather than consumer activity, a traditional cost-benefit analysis doesn't apply here, unlike a retail or entertainment district, where a sign might drive foot traffic that translates directly into measurable spending. In an industrial context, a sign or mural can build a sense of place, but it won't directly drive production or convince a business to locate here. The chain of cause and effect is simply too indirect to quantify.

RECAP: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS

80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District

$0 $8,000,000

Value Added

Output

$5,830,413.64146

$6,108,914.69768

$7,516,747.24973

$0 $52,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$31,442.69

$51,946.94

$28,424.33

This Development event contemplates the construction and operation of an industrial machinery repair and maintenance facility and a commercial warehouse. To model these events, the following assumption was made: A two-year construction period, from 2027 to 2028, followed by one year of operations in 2029.

For the industrial machinery repair and maintenance facility, two years of construction and one year of operations would contribute $3,055,317.50 to GDP, support ~22 jobs, and generate $100,456.20 in local government tax revenue, with $72,168.97 going to the County and its special districts. For the commercial warehouse, two years of construction and one year of operations would contribute $3,810,326.38 to GDP, support ~35 jobs, and generate $34,566.82 in local government tax revenue, with $24,840.07 going to the County and its special districts.

Industrial Machinery Repair and Maintenance Facility Employment = 21.70 Commercial Warehouse Employment = 34.60

$0 $6,200,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$2,122,149.85 $3,177,412.49

$3,055,317.50 $3,810,326.38

$5,055,331.22 $6,175,188.32

ECONOMIC INDICATORS TAX RESULTS

$0 $50,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$28,296.23 $9,726.75

$46,631.52 $16,053.08

$25,537.45 $8,786.99

49.11

Employment:

The following is a high-level overview and snapshot of the events modeled for the 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District, and the economic indicator and tax results for each event. To see a detailed breakdown of how those events were constructed, see page 51 for the District’s full modeling report.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This Business Attraction event models the opening of a truck terminal, an industrial machinery repair and maintenance service facility, and an industrial testing laboratory. Annually, opening these three new businesses might contribute $6,108,914.70 to GDP, support ~49 jobs, and generate $111,813.96 in local government tax revenue, with $80,371.27 going to the County and its special districts.

TAX RESULTS

Attracting new businesses:

Truck terminal Industrial machinery repair/maintenance Industrial testing laboratory

RESULTS: MODELING FOUR CATEGORIES OF EVENTS IN THE

80-WATT PROPERTY AND BUSINESS IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT

An important note about the local government tax implications for commercial warehouses: As evidenced in the graph on the left, commercial warehouses tend to generate significantly less local tax revenue. This is because commercial warehouses are generally simple, low-value structures compared to more specialized industrial buildings like manufacturing plants or research and development facilities, meaning they generate less property tax revenue. They also don't produce sales tax locally, since the goods they store are typically bought and sold elsewhere rather than at the warehouse itself. Together, these factors can potentially result in a negative fiscal impact, meaning that the costs warehouses place on local government, including road wear from heavy truck traffic, infrastructure demands, and fire and emergency services, may actually exceed the tax revenue they produce.

This does not necessarily mean that commercial warehousing is not a viable recommendation for the County; however, the County may need to conduct a more in-depth land conditions and fiscal analysis before proceeding to ensure that it pencils out. This is very possible, given that the District already has some of the physical spaces available and in place, which could meaningfully offset startup and infrastructure costs.

80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District

Economic Modeling Outcomes

Industrial Machinery Repair/Maintenance

Commercial Warehouse

RECOMMENDATIONS: IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH POLICY INTERVENTIONS

Leaning Into the Industry Character of the District to Potentially Create Future Retail Opportunities

The 80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District occupies a different position than the other corridors in unincorporated Sacramento County. The original vision for the District positioned it as the mixed-use, transit-oriented development hub of the 80-Watt corridor, given its direct access to I-80 and the Blue Line light rail. However, unlike other Districts where retail, dining, and entertainment cluster together to create the kind of multi-stop experience that draws visitors, this District’s anchor establishments (e.g., the Walmart Supercenter, the Salvation Army Family Services Center, the North Area Recovery Station, and a handful of fast food operators) stand alone. Additionally, while the District is also geographically close to McClellan Business Park, which supports approximately 20,000 jobs, train tracks running parallel to Roseville Road make that workforce difficult to capture, and more retail and dining options are available to those workers by heading north on Watt Avenue, away from the District. This limits the District’s opportunity to compete with other commercial corridors in the County.

Rather, the physical characteristics and commercial reality of the District point toward a different opportunity. The largest share of spaces in 80-Watt are industrial (i.e., large-footprint structures suited to logistics, auto services, and flexible reuse) and the existing zoning permits, in some areas, industrial and transportation facilities, major auto service and repair, and related uses alongside the mixed-use aspirations of the original corridor plan.

With approximately 189,000 square feet of available space as of late 2025, the District has meaningful inventory to work with. The County might consider a policy intervention that leans into this: Establish a clear industrial identity for the District and position it as a hub for targeted industrial growth, rather than continuing to plan around a retail and residential vision that cannot be supported in the near-term. Relevant target industries include fabrication and manufacturing, industrial labs focused on research and testing, transportation and logistics operations such as warehousing and distribution, commercial vehicle support services, contractor yards, and training facilities. These are uses that would not be deterred by the same barriers that limit consumer-facing businesses.

The County might consider incentive structures, such as fee offsets or accelerated permitting for industry-aligned uses, could help lower barriers for businesses evaluating available spaces.

Engaging existing regional industrial anchors, including the businesses and operators within McClellan Business Park, to identify opportunities for expansion or complementary services could also further this approach.

The longer-term case for this approach is not purely industrial. A thriving industry environment generates a worker population, and a sustained worker population creates the conditions under which dining and retail operators, which have so far found 80-Watt unconducive, may begin to see the District as a viable location. This is a realistic pathway: By first establishing what the District does well, the County could create the foundation for a commercial ecosystem that grows organically from industry, rather than one that is imposed on a corridor not yet ready to support it.

80-Watt Property and Business Improvement District

Identity: Position the District as a destination that "has everything you need," from entertainment and dining to daily conveniences.

Assets: An established commercial corridor with abundant and clustered entertainment, retail, and dining establishments, particularly in Subdistrict 1, and the potential to grow an identity as a hub for local gems and retro businesses in Subdistrict 2.

Subdistrict 1: The Arden + Howe Intersection — Abundant and clustered entertainment, retail, and dining Subdistrict 2: Arden Way from Bell Street to Morse Avenue — Standout "retro" or "local gem" businesses Subdistrict 3: Arden Way from Morse Avenue to Watt Avenue — All the essentials

Business Attraction Develop a recruitment strategy that attracts "local gem" or "retro" businesses by reinforcing and leveraging Subdistrict 2's identity as a hub for these establishments. Actively market sites to businesses that fill gaps in the market (e.g., bakery cafés, thrift shops, bookstores) and that reinforce the District's brand as a place with something for everyone.

Placemaking Particularly for Subdistrict 2, encourage pop-ups, mobile retail, food trucks, or community events in parking lots and vacant parcels. This also doubles as a placemaking strategy, to reinforce District identity. Use temporary activations to test demand before pursuing long-term recruitment.

Infill Development Consider mixed-use development, to establish an additional supporting customer base for a primarily commercial corridor.

Marketing and Branding

Tailor brand elements (signage, wayfinding, color palettes) so visitors can understand each subdistrict's unique offerings, while still recognizing the broader District identity.

RECAP: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS

Arden + Howe Business Alliance Arden + Howe Business Alliance

$0 $2,500,000

Value Added

Output

$1,360,939.02

$1,734,396.70

$2,147,681.34

$0 $40,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$23,076.31

$37,942.28

$20,794.93

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

$0 $120,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$37,784.13

$66,656.11

$119,463.53

$0 $2,500

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$1,451.56

$2,387.15

$1,308.23

TAX RESULTS

Employment = 1.06

36.88

Employment:

The following is a high-level overview and snapshot of the events modeled for the Arden + Howe Business Alliance District, and the economic indicator and tax results for each event. To see a detailed breakdown of how those events were constructed, see page 53 for the District’s full modeling report.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This Business Attraction event models the opening of a bakery café, thrift shop, and book store. Annually, opening these three new businesses might contribute $1,734,396.70 to GDP, support ~37 jobs, and generate $81,813.52 in local government tax revenue, with $58,737.21 going to the County and its special districts.

TAX RESULTS

Attracting new businesses:

Bakery café Thrift shop Book store

This Placemaking event models a hypothetical community pop-up event, a vibrant once-a-month, all-day event that brings together food trucks, mobile retailers, and local vendors in an underutilized parking lot or vacant parcel to celebrate District identity, foster community connection, and test the pulse of local demand for future businesses. Each hypothetical community pop-up event might contribute $66,656.11 to GDP, support about 1 job, and generate $5,146.94 in local government tax revenue, with $3,695.38 going to the County and its special districts. It is important to know that the potential revenue of this placemaking event does not include any secondary results of customers returning to the district to shop after attending an event.

RESULTS: MODELING FOUR CATEGORIES OF EVENTS IN THE ARDEN + HOWE BUSINESS ALLIANCE DISTRICT

Arden + Howe Business Alliance

Per Person Spending $15

Number of Visitors 32,000 (or ~615 per week)

Per Person Spending $20

Number of Visitors 32,000 (or ~615 per week)

Per Person Spending $25

Number of Visitors 32,000 (or ~615 per week)

This Infill Development event contemplates the construction and operation of a multifamily, mixed-use property. Three years of construction and one year of operations would contribute $36,495,127.49 to GDP, support ~242 jobs, and generate $680,194.43 in local government tax revenue, with $488,563.18 going to the County and its special districts.

To assess the cost effectiveness of a Marketing and Branding event, such as the installation of a new sign, the event must generate at least $1,200,000 in output within the District to justify its cost. The following event generates $1,207,944.23 in annual output:

Therefore, in one year, it would take ~615 visitors a week to limited-service cafés in the District, each visitor spending at least $15; ~615 visitors a week to thrift stores in the District, each visitor spending at least $20; and ~615 visitors a week to book stores in the District, each visitor spending at least $25, to make-up the cost of the sign in sales tax revenue to the County, and justify its cost.

BAKERY CAFÉ

THRIFT STORE

BOOK STORE

$1,207,944.23 Annual Output

$0 $60,000,000

Labor Income

Value Added

Output

$22,528,842.93

$36,495,127.49

$58,985,337.95

ECONOMIC INDICATORS Employment:

241.70

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

$0 $350,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$191,631.25

$315,665.37

$172,897.80

TAX RESULTS

Multi-Family Mixed-Use Property

Leaning into the Commercial Character of the Corridor by Increasing Density and Considering Mixed-Use Infill Development

The Arden + Howe Business Alliance District begins from a position of commercial strength. The concentration of retail, dining, and entertainment along the corridor creates a powerful clustering effect, where a customer drawn to one destination generates spillover demand for surrounding businesses, particularly at the intersection of Arden Way and Howe Avenue. Reinforcing this is the continued strong performance of the District's brick-and-mortar retail establishments, a unique asset at a time when many comparable corridors are losing ground to e-commerce and shifting consumer behavior. The goal is to reinforce that foundation by increasing commercial density, particularly along Arden Way between Bell Street and Watt Avenue, and exploring mixed-use infill development.

The case for mixed-use infill development follows from the District's existing strengths, and mirrors the approach recommended for the Florin Road Partnership. Like the Florin Road Partnership District, the Arden + Howe Business Alliance District's surrounding community is made up of a majority-renter population. These are households that could plausibly live, shop, dine, and be entertained close to or along the same corridor, even if they work elsewhere.

Bringing multi-family housing into the District would add a built-in customer base that activates the corridor outside of peak shopping hours and strengthens the financial case for the dining and entertainment uses that drive spillover demand. That said, a local residential population alone would not be enough to sustain a District of this scale and commercial density. Arden + Howe's long-term vitality depends on continuing to draw visitors and spending from beyond its immediate neighborhood. Mixed-use infill is a complementary way to bring money into the corridor, not a substitute for the regional draw that makes the District's clustering effect possible in the first place.

Zoning is one of the most direct levers available to the County, and there is a meaningful opportunity here to use it strategically. Where properties are currently limited to commercial-only uses, updating zoning to allow for mixed-use development could unlock a broader range of investment activity. Pairing that with regulatory incentives (e.g., reduced parking minimums, lot coverage requirements, and setbacks) would lower barriers for prospective developers, and an infill development incentives package would create the conditions to attract investment.

RECOMMENDATIONS: IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH POLICY INTERVENTIONS

Identity: Uplifting the District’s cultural and agricultural history while reinforcing its role as an everyday, convenient destination.

Assets: A strong foundation for authentic, place-based branding aligned with Sacramento’s broader history, such as:

The Sojourner Truth African American History Museum The Florin Historical Society Other iconic local gems and small businesses

Business Attraction Actively market sites to retail or restaurants that cater to the Districts’ racially and ethnically diverse community, or to businesses that would fill gaps in the market (e.g., services like salons or additional specialty entertainment spaces and amenities).

Placemaking Pilot and promote community activities that reinforce Florin as a destination for history and culture, including leveraging existing events (e.g., the African Market Place, or Florin Historical Society’s historical tours and Strawberry Festival).

Infill Development Consider a shift from commercial-focused properties to mixed-use, while continuing to prioritize culturally and ethnically diverse businesses. A specific, real-world example: The potential for redevelopment with the 2251 Florin Road property for sale, where the Sojourner Truth African American History Museum and other businesses are currently located.

Marketing and Branding

Install gateway signage and banners to reinforce this identity (i.e., the District as a hub for racial and ethnic diversity and culture, as well as modern retail offerings).

RECAP: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS

Florin Road PartnershipFlorin Road Partnership

$0 $2,500,000

Value Added

Output

$1,518,699.58

$1,871,800.95

$2,464,097.22

$0 $30,000

Sub County General

Sub County Special Districts

County

$17,713.61

$29,143.09

$15,969.02

40.1

Employment:

The following is a high-level overview and snapshot of the events modeled for the Florin Road Partnership District, and the economic indicator and tax results for each event. To see a detailed breakdown of how those events were constructed, see page 57 for the District’s full modeling report.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

This Business Attraction event models the opening of three new businesses: a full-service restaurant, a specialty food store, and a salon.

Annually, opening these three new businesses might contribute $1,871,800.95 to GDP, support ~40 jobs, and generate $62,825.72 in local government tax revenue, with $45,112.11 going to the County and its special districts.

TAX RESULTS

Attracting new businesses:

Full-service restaurant Specialty food store Salon

This Placemaking event models the African Market Place in two forms: as it exists today and as an expanded, aspirational version with a greater number of vendors and 4,500 additional attendees. Hosted by the Sojourner Truth African American History Museum at Florin Square approximately twice a month, the African Market Place is a family-friendly event featuring over thirty African American vendors, with shopping, entertainment, food, music, and art. Each African Market Place event, as it exists today, might contribute $6,604.11 to GDP, support about one-tenth of a job, and generate $509.64 in local government tax revenue, with $365.92 going to the County and its special districts. Aspirationally, if the number of vendors and attendees increased, it might contribute $66,604.11 to GDP, support approximately 1 job, and generate $5,096.42 in local government tax revenue, with $3659.18 going to the County and its special districts.