10b Task Order Performance Work Statement PWS.pdf

Attachment 10b

TASK ORDER PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT

TITLE: THE USE OF MICROSIMULATION IN SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE

PROGRAM (SNAP) POLICY ANALYSIS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1. The Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) works to increase food security and reduce hunger through the administration of 16 Federal nutrition assistance programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). SNAP is the largest FNS nutrition assistance program. It provides food benefits to low-income families to supplement their grocery budget so they can afford the nutritious food essential to health and well-being. As part of its responsibility for administering SNAP, FNS relies heavily on microsimulation models and other analyses to estimate the impact of economic changes and program reforms on

SNAP participation and costs. These simulations are used extensively during preparation of the

President’s budget submission, analysis of regulatory impacts, and in response to Congressionally proposed statutory changes. The Evidence, Analysis, and Regulatory Affairs Office (EAR) within

FNS is responsible for conducting these program analyses and assessments that inform policymaking and management of SNAP and all other federal nutrition assistance programs.

1.2. SCOPE

FNS-EAR has a need to obtain technical and statistical support services to assist with evaluating the benefit cost and distributional impacts of proposed changes to SNAP. The main objectives are as follows:

1. To provide microsimulation modeling and analytical support services to assist FNS-EAR in estimating the impact of proposed changes to nutrition assistance programs on eligibility, participation, and costs;

2. To support the existing microsimulation models and related analyses by acquiring new data as it becomes available, performing quality assurance checks on those data, developing new databases from those data, conducting other research that can provide information to improve the models, and updating the models based on the new data or research.

3. To conduct supporting research that uses the microsimulation models or relevant data sources and research methods to study SNAP, other Federal assistance programs, and low-income individuals. This includes research on the characteristics and behaviors of nutrition assistance program participants and other low-income individuals, and their participation in Federal assistance programs.

2.0 SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS/TASKS

The following are the specific tasks to be completed in support of this requirement:

Task 1: Perform Technical and Statistical Analyses

Period of Performance: September 1, 2025 – August 31, 2026

Objective: The objective of the Task is to obtain the technical and statistical services needed to assist FNS in both the continued use and further development of the QC Mini-Model, MATH SIPP+ model, and other extant databases to evaluate the cost and impacts of proposed changes to the nation’s nutrition assistance programs and for other related analyses on an as-needed basis.

The Task shall include, but is not limited to, the following:

a) Provide core microsimulation services such as tabulations, reform simulations, and analyses on a quick turnaround basis.

b) Assist with hosting and maintaining SNAP Quality Control (QC) data files and the web-based microsimulation models.

c) Provide ad hoc updates and fixes to the microsimulation models as needed.

Subtask 1.1: Provide Reform Simulations, Tabulations, and other Related Analyses

The Contractor shall assist with preparing up to 80 reform simulations, tabulations, or other related analyses. FNS will provide requests for such analyses in writing through the

Contracting Officer Representative (COR).

The Contractor shall supply analysis results in the form of electronic tables or microsimulation output tables along with a descriptive memorandum within two business days of FNS’s request. Tables shall be provided in MS Excel and other file formats as specified by FNS in the specific requests. Any programming code shall be provided upon

FNS request within three business days. If the deliverable deadline cannot be met, the

Contractor shall inform FNS at the time of the request and provide a reason in writing. The

Contractor shall provide a formal memorandum no later than 30 days after providing the final results to FNS.

When a request requires simulating the impacts of a reform, the Contractor shall use one of the microsimulation models to project the effect of reforms on SNAP total benefit costs, number of participants affected, average benefit amounts, and participant characteristics. The following information shall be provided in the memorandum or in the simulation output tables:

a) The date that the reform was run;

b) The model used;

c) Assumptions used;

d) A specific description of the reform that was run;

e) The number of SNAP households and persons eligible and the number participating under base law and under the reform quotation;

f) The total dollar value of benefits under base law and under the reform quotation;

g) The percent change for household and person eligibility, as well as for those participating in SNAP under the reform quotation;

h) The percent change in the dollar value of benefits under the reform quotation; and

i) Any follow-up questions and answers or resolutions that relate to the reform.

For each reform simulation, the Contractor shall also provide tables including the following:

a) Weighted national summary impacts of the simulated policy change, both without and with confidence intervals, and unweighted summary impacts of the simulated policy change without confidence intervals.

b) When requested, weighted State summary impacts of the simulated policy change, both without and with confidence intervals, and unweighted summary impacts of the simulated policy change without confidence intervals.

c) Gainers and losers under the simulated policy change.

d) Gainer and losers under the simulated policy change by subgroups: SNAP households with earnings, SNAP households with elderly individuals, SNAP households with nonelderly disabled individuals, SNAP households with children, SNAP households with noncitizens, and SNAP households by race and ethnicity.

e) Any additional related output data in table format requested by FNS.

Related reform simulations requested over a brief period of time (5-10 business days) can be grouped in one final memorandum.

Any supplemental SNAP information needed to simulate a program alternative (such as a table of allotments individualized by household size or SNAP eligibility parameters) will be supplied by FNS at the time of the Government’s request for the analyses. The Contractor shall be responsible for obtaining publicly available extant data needed for requested analyses. The Contractor shall be responsible for programming the model(s) with the appropriate specifications, reviewing the results for accuracy, and ensuring that they are consistent with similar past estimates and expectations.

When an analysis is requested that does not require the use of the models, the Contractor shall provide a table in MS Excel and other formats as specified by FNS and descriptive text. The memorandum shall summarize the original request, describe all data sources used, include the date the table was generated and describe any assumptions used. Any follow-up questions and answers or resolutions shall also be included.

The Contractor shall assist with maintaining a current electronic catalog of all reform simulations, tabulation requests, and other analyses that were performed in Task 1. The

Contractor shall also provide a report that lists them by issue area and database used. The report shall note similar runs performed on different databases (such as the QC Mini-Model versus MATH SIPP+). The report shall be delivered in accordance with the Schedule of

Deliverables (SOD).

When not specified in this TO, the Contractor shall propose the page or table format used for the memoranda, reports, or other similar documents required in the SOD. The Contractor shall attempt to make these deliverables consistent with previous years’ deliverables, or with other publicly available FNS documents. FNS shall approve the Contractor-proposed format and request revisions as needed.

Deliverable 1.1.1 – For each quick response request, preliminary results with accompanying tables or simulations results and explanation

Deliverable 1.1.2 – Data files and programming code used for each request

Deliverable 1.1.3 – For each quick response request, final memorandum of quick response reform simulations, tabulations, or analyses

Deliverable 1.1.4 – Report of all quick response work performed under Task 1

Subtask 1.2: Provide Improvements to the QC Data File and/or the QC Mini-Model on an As-Needed Basis

The QC Data file and the QC Mini-model may need periodic updates for improvements.

Examples include improving identification of individuals in SNAP households with specific characteristics, changing a parameter to reflect current program rules, or making a new parameter available on the web-based models. This subtask would allow FNS to request up to four improvements to the QC data file or QC Mini-Model as needed.

FNS will provide such requests in writing through the CO or COR. Because these improvements are expected to vary in terms of complexity, the time needed to complete the improvements may vary, with a maximum of 60 calendar days. FNS will determine a turn-around time period in writing, with input from the Contractor.

The Contractor shall inform FNS that improvements have been made in the form of a memorandum. This memorandum shall describe the improvements, and where applicable, any impact on reform simulation results.

Deliverable 1.2.1 – For each requested improvement, implementation memorandum describing ad hoc improvements or analysis

Subtask 1.3: Provide Improvements to the MATH-SIPP Model and/or the Trends File

Both the MATH SIPP+ model and the CPS-based file used to calculate national SNAP participation rates (referred to as the “trends file”) may need periodic updates for improvements. This subtask would allow FNS to request up to four improvements to the

MATH SIPP+ model or trends file as needed.

FNS will provide such requests in writing through the CO or COR. Because these improvements are expected to vary in terms of complexity, the time needed to complete the improvements may vary, with a maximum of 60 calendar days. FNS will determine a turn-around time period in writing, with input from the Contractor.

The Contractor shall inform FNS that improvements have been made in the form of a memorandum. This memorandum shall describe the improvements, and where applicable, any impact on reform simulation results.

Deliverable 1.3.1 – For each requested improvement, implementation memorandum describing ad-hoc improvements or analysis for the MATH SIPP+ and/or the CPS-based trends file

Subtask 1.4: Host the SNAP QC Data

The Contractor shall host on its web servers the SNAP QC datafile and technical documentation, both developed under Task 4. The Contractor shall also make these data and documentation available to the public and accessible from the FNS public website.

Deliverable 1.4.1 – Continually host the SNAP QC data and technical documentation on website

Subtask 1.5: Prepare and Host the QC Mini-Model and MATH SIPP+ Model

For the entirety of the contract period, The Contractor shall assist with preparing and hosting the microsimulation models on a web-based system that allows access to the most current versions of the QC Mini-Model and the MATH SIPP+ model on its web servers to registered users. The Contractor shall notify the COR when an individual or organization requests access to the models. No access to the models shall be granted unless approved by the

Government in writing.

Using programming language provided under model development and other documentation for prior versions of the web-based models, the Contractor shall assist with developing updated versions of the web-based models which shall include, but not limited to:

a) Formatting and storing model data,

b) Creating web programs in a language acceptable to FNS (e.g., SAS, Stata, and/or R),

c) Formatting and storing program parameter data, and

d) Formatting and storing parameter question data (information needed to display the parameter questions)

Parameters and other reform simulation options available on the web-based versions of the models (e.g., deduction amounts, income and asset limits, State or national level estimates, participant characteristics) shall be consistent with prior years, and/or decided on in consultation with FNS.

Deliverable 1.5.1 – Continually host the QC Mini-Model and MATH SIPP+ Model

Task 2: Acquire and Perform Quality Assurance (QA) Checks on Census Data Products

Objective: The objective of the Task is to assist with providing support services for the microsimulation models and related analyses conducted under Task 1 by: acquiring new

Census data files as they become available, conducting basic quality assurance (QA) checks to ensure consistency between the data and the documentation, and providing copies of the data files and documentation to FNS.

The Contractor shall assist with acquiring and preparing the following data from Census:

a) The Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement

(ASEC),

b) The American Community Survey (ACS), and

c) The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP).

This includes initial releases and any re-releases. The Contractor shall assist with tracking versions of the CPS ASEC, ACS, and SIPP data releases and notify FNS of the release (FNS will provide a list of FNCS staff to receive copies of any memoranda announcing Census data releases). The Contractor shall store all versions of the CPS ASEC, ACS, and SIPP data releases in addition to, delivering the versions to FNS in SAS, Stata, and R at a minimum.

Subtask 2.1: Acquire 2025 CPS ASEC Data

The Contractor shall submit a memorandum informing FNS when Census is planning to release the 2025 CPS ASEC files within seven business days of data release announcement.

The Contractor shall obtain the 2025 CPS ASEC data within one day of release. This includes new versions of files already released. Within seven business days of release, The Contractor shall inform FNS of the acquisition of the data in the form of a memorandum.

Deliverable 2.1.1 – Memorandum on planned release of the 2025 CPS ASEC file

Deliverable 2.1.2 – Memorandum on release and acquisition of the 2025 CPS ASEC file

Subtask 2.2: Perform QA Checks on CPS ASEC Data

The Contractor shall perform QA checks on the 2025 CPS ASEC data within 30 calendar days of data release. This also applies to re-release versions of files already released. The QA checks shall include where applicable, changes in content and processes, weighting procedures, top coding, code book issues, variables with out-of-range values, and other data issues. Within 30 calendar days of data release, the Contractor shall inform FNS of the results of the QA data checks in the form of a memorandum.

Deliverable 2.2.1 – Completion of QA checks on 2025 CPS ASEC data

Deliverable 2.2.2 – Memorandum describing results of QA checks on CPS ASEC data

Subtask 2.3: Modify and Document CPS ASEC Data

The Contractor shall modify Census’s SAS program for replicate weights to show control totals and totals calculated by replicate weights, and their differences. The Contractor shall also generate SAS and Table Producing Language (TPL) programs and labels from the ASEC codebook, depending on approach. The Contractor shall construct a corrected data dictionary of the 2025 CPS ASEC data. The Contractor shall provide the modified replicate weights, labels, and code book with the data files in formats agreed upon by FNS and describe modifications in a memorandum within 30 calendar days of data release.

Deliverable 2.3.1 – 2025 CPS ASEC data files and documentation

Subtask 2.4: Acquire ACS Data

The Contractor shall submit a memorandum informing FNS when Census is planning to release the 2024 ACS data files within seven business days of the Census’s data release announcement. The Contractor shall obtain the ACS PUMS within one day of release. Within seven business days of release, the Contractor shall inform FNS of the release and acquisition of the data in the form of a memorandum. This also applies to any re-releases of the 2024

ACS PUMS, as well as re-releases and 5-year versions of earlier ACS PUMS data.

Deliverable 2.4.1 – Memorandum on planned release of 2024 ACS PUMS data

Deliverable 2.4.2 – Memorandum on release and acquisition of 2024 ACS PUMS data

Subtask 2.5: Perform QA Checks on ACS Data

The Contractor shall perform QA checks on the 2024 ACS PUMS data within 30 calendar days of release. This also applies to re-release versions of files already released. The QA checks shall include, where applicable, changes in content and processes, weighting procedures, top coding, code book issues, variables with out-of-range values, and other data issues. Within 30 calendar days of data release, the Contractor shall inform FNS of the results of the QA data checks in the form of a memorandum.

Deliverable 2.5.1 – Completion of QA checks on 2024 ACS PUMS data

Deliverable 2.5.2 – Memorandum describing results of QA checks of 2024 ACS PUMS data

Subtask 2.6: Deliver Documentation on ACS PUMS Data

Within 30 calendar days of ACS PUMS data release, the Contractor shall provide the ACS

PUMS data files and documentation. The documentation, where applicable, shall include changes and new variables in the 2024 ACS PUMS data file, data quality checks, codebook and supplementary documentation, top and bottom coded values, naming convention for allocation variables, files delivered, tracking of versions, and useful links.

Deliverable 2.6.1 – 2024 ACS PUMS data files and documentation

Subtask 2.7: Acquire SIPP Data

When Census releases a new SIPP data file, the Contractor shall obtain the SIPP data within seven business days of release. This also applies to rereleases of any SIPP file. The Contractor shall inform FNS of the acquisition of the data in the form of a memorandum within seven business days of data release. The memorandum shall include a SIPP release grid showing planned and actual data release dates for SIPP data products.

Deliverable 2.7.1 – Memorandum on acquisition of all SIPP products with release grid

Subtask 2.8: Perform QA Checks on SIPP Data

The Contractor shall assist with performing QA checks on any SIPP PUMS data within 30 calendar days of release. This also applies to re-release versions of files already released. The

QA checks shall include, where applicable, changes in content and processes, weighting procedures, top coding, code book issues, variables with out-of-range values, and other data issues. Within 30 calendar days of data release, the Contractor shall inform FNS of the results of the QA data checks in the form of a memorandum.

Deliverable 2.8.1 – Completion of QA checks on all SIPP products

Deliverable 2.8.2 – Memorandum describing results of QA checks

Subtask 2.9: Deliver Documentation on SIPP Data

Within 30 calendar days of data release, the Contractor shall provide the SIPP data files and documentation to FNS after completing the QA checks. The documentation, where applicable, shall include changes and new variables in the SIPP PUMS, SIPP PUMS data quality checks, codebook and supplementary documentation, top and bottom coded values, naming convention for allocation variables, files delivered, tracking of versions, and useful links.

Deliverable 2.9.1 – SIPP data files and documentation

Subtask 2.10: Provide Technical Support for the Census Data Products

FNS anticipates that there may be some questions about the Census data files – the CPS

ASEC, the SIPP, and the ACS – acquired and prepared under this Task. The Contractor shall respond to any technical questions within three business days after request, unless otherwise specified.

Deliverable 2.10.1 – Responses to technical questions

Task 3: Estimate National SNAP Participation Rates for FY 2024

Objective: The objective of the Task is to estimate SNAP participation rates for Fiscal Year

(FY) 2024 using the 2024 SNAP QC data file and the March 2023 and 2024 CPS ASEC data files, using a methodologically sound approach, and to provide methodologically consistent estimates for previous years.

Subtask 3.1: Finalize Study Plan

The Contractor shall submit a complete study plan that details the approach for addressing the

Task. The study plan shall include an overview of the Task; describe Task objectives; include a detailed discussion of methods, including data sources and analysis plan; discuss reporting;

and provide the Task schedule. This plan shall serve as a comprehensive roadmap to the work to be performed under the Task. The Contractor shall provide a draft study plan in the form of a memorandum within six weeks of award. A final study plan, including revisions requested by FNS, shall be delivered within two weeks of receiving comments from FNS.

Deliverable 3.1.1 – Draft study plan

Deliverable 3.1.2 – Final study plan

Subtask 3.2: Estimate National SNAP Participation Rates for 2024

The Contractor shall assist with analyzing data from the March 2023 and March 2024 CPS

ASEC data files to derive estimates of SNAP eligibles in FY 2024.1 The estimate shall involve simulating the composition of the SNAP household (which sometimes differs from the CPS household or the family unit); imputing which noncitizens are eligible for SNAP;

imputing which nonelderly, nondisabled childless adults are subject to time limits; simulating receipt of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families

(TANF) benefits; simulating pure cash categorical eligibility status; estimating monthly income and expenses that factor into allowable deductions; and simulating asset eligibility.

1 The March CPS ASEC files refer to the prior calendar year. Because FY 2023 covers 3 months in CY 2022 and 9 months in CY 2023, CPS ASEC files from both years are needed.

FNS shall provide SNAP program operations data and the edited 2024 SNAP QC data file.

The Contractor shall combine estimates of eligibles with information on program participants from the two sources listed above to generate a national participation rate for all eligibles and important subgroups.

If FNS approves a change in the methodology for generating current participation rates that differs from the methods used to provide recent years’ participation rates, the Contractor shall re-estimate the participation rate for past years using the methodology used for the current year estimates. The choice of years to re-estimate shall be made in consultation with FNS.

The Contractor shall submit a draft memorandum with initial tables presenting the FY 2024 national participation rates and trends by week 22 of TO award. Upon receipt of comments from FNS, the Contractor shall make any revisions to the methodology or tables.

Deliverable 3.2.1 – Memorandum on preliminary 2024 SNAP national participation rates

Subtask 3.3: Prepare Report on SNAP Participation Rates for 2024

The Contractor shall produce a report on national participation rates and recent trends in those participation rates using 2024 SNAP QC data and March 2023 and March 2024 CPS ASEC data files. The report shall cover SNAP participation trends from a multi-year period, up to

FY 2024.

The Contractor shall submit a draft report for FNS to review within four weeks of receipt of

FNS comments on the preliminary 2024 SNAP national participation rates memorandum.

After FNS submits comments on the draft report, the Contractor shall then submit a revised report within four weeks. After FNS submits comments on the revised report, the Contractor shall submit a clearance report within two weeks. Upon final acceptance of the clearance report or upon receiving instructions from the COR, the Contractor shall submit an electronic, section 508-compliant copy of the final report within one week. Each subsequent version of the report must incorporate FNS’s feedback.

The Contractor shall provide the data file and programming code used to generate the national

SNAP participation rates to FNS at the same time that they submit the Final 2024 national participation rates report.

Deliverable 3.3.1 – Draft 2024 national participation rates report

Deliverable 3.3.2 – Revised 2024 national participation rates report

Deliverable 3.3.3 – Clearance 2024 national participation rates report

Deliverable 3.3.4 – Final 2024 national participation rates report

Deliverable 3.3.5 – Data file and programming code

Task 4: Prepare the Edited FY 2025 SNAP QC Data File

Period of Performance: May 1, 2026 – April 30, 2027

General Information: The SNAP QC file is used for the QC Mini-Model, the annual report on

SNAP household characteristics, the basis for estimating the numerator (participants) in the estimates of national and State SNAP participation rates, and numerous other quick analyses and tabulations. However, to be usable for these purposes, it must be cleaned and edited. The success of the work under the Task requires that the final QC data file is nearly 100% comparable and consistent with the final QC data files for prior years, as accurate comparisons across years are regularly needed to inform policy and operate the program effectively.

Objective: The objective of the Task is to acquire, prepare, and edit the FY 2025 SNAP QC data file, document all editing decisions, and assess the quality of the data.

Subtask 4.1: Edit and Prepare FY 2025 SNAP QC Data

FNS will provide the Contractor with the most recently available SNAP QC data for FY 2025 in an electronic format. FNS will provide the Contractor with an initial QC data file and a revised file if any revisions are made after the initial file. The data file will contain a nationally representative sample of SNAP households. FNS will also provide SNAP program operations totals, including the number of individuals, households, and benefits (a) going to those receiving SNAP disaster benefits and (b) going to those later identified as ineligible for

SNAP through the QC process. The Contractor shall adjust the program operations totals to account for these exclusions.

Perform quality control checks of the data. The Contractor shall assist with performing quality control checks to ensure data are usable. These include ensuring data variable types and documentation are consistent; to identify anomalies in the data, such as missing data on a large number of cases in a particular State or many invalid values for a variable; and examination of frequencies and distributions for key variables to identify out-of-range values.

The Contractor shall notify FNS of problems or inconsistencies with the data in writing within seven calendar days of completing this stage of data processing.

Edit data. The Contractor shall edit the analysis file by using edit specifications and constructed variables developed in conjunction with FNS to check the completeness and consistency of the data. Edit specifications include but are not limited to resolving issues with missing data, out-of-range values, and other problematic coding and records; ensuring that the sum of income from all sources equals the reported gross income, the sum of all resources equals the reported total household resources, and the count of all persons in each SNAP household equals the reported household size. Constructed variables include but are not limited to totals for expenses and income, such as household shelter deductions, gross income as a percent of the poverty threshold and flags for household composition indicators, such as the presence of children, employed individuals, disabled, or elderly members. The Contractor shall attempt to resolve any inconsistencies in the data and notify FNS of all inconstancies and the attempts made to resolve them.

Construct variables. Once data have been edited, the Contractor shall construct unit-level countable income variables, SNAP eligibility and benefit determination variables, and characteristics flags. The Contractor shall construct all variables and flags necessary to achieve maximum comparability and consistency with prior years of QC final data files.

Weight data. The Contractor shall weight the observations on the QC raw file to ensure that the weighted totals match three adjusted SNAP program operations totals: the monthly number of SNAP households by State, the monthly number of SNAP participants by State and by sampling stratum, and the monthly value of benefits issues by State.

Provide tables. The Contractor shall provide a limited set of draft and final preliminary tables of the QC data file. Tables to be included in the set will be decided jointly by FNS and the

Contractor. The draft preliminary tables shall be submitted to FNS within 16 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data from FNS, and the final preliminary tables shall be submitted within 24 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data from FNS.

Data files. The Contractor shall provide FNS with the edited and final SNAP QC data file in

SAS, Stata, and R formats at a minimum. The edited QC data file shall be submitted to FNS within 24 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data, and the final QC data file shall be submitted to FNS within 36 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data.

Provide data cleaning code files: The Contractor shall provide the code files, and any revisions to the files, used to clean, edit, and prepare the QC data files, as specified in the

Task. The files shall be provided in SAS, Stata, and R formats at a minimum within 44 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data from FNS.

Deliverable 4.1.1 – Draft Preliminary Tables

Deliverable 4.1.2 – Final Preliminary Tables

Deliverable 4.1.3 – Draft Edited FY 2025 QC Data File

Deliverable 4.1.4 – Final Edited FY 2025 QC Data File

Deliverable 4.1.5 – Data Cleaning Code Files

Subtask 4.2: Document the Quality of the FY 2025 SNAP QC Data

The Contractor shall provide to FNS a draft memorandum assessing the quality of the SNAP

QC data within 28 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data. The assessment shall include detailed information on the accuracy and reliability of variables that have had problems in the past, as well as new variables, variables that were dropped, variables with recent coding changes, and variables with a large number of records with missing data. Upon receipt and incorporation of final comments from FNS, the Contractor shall prepare a final electronic version for delivery to FNS within 36 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data.

Deliverable 4.2.1 – Draft Data Assessment Memorandum

Deliverable 4.2.2 – Final Data Assessment Memorandum

Subtask 4.3: Provide Technical Support for the Edited FY 2025 SNAP QC Data File

FNS anticipates that there may be some questions about the edited SNAP QC data file from users of the data file. The Contractor shall be prepared to answer any questions about the data file and provide related technical support within three business days of request, unless otherwise specified.

Deliverable 4.3.1 – Responses to technical questions

Task 5: Update the QC Mini-Model with FY 2025 Data

Objective: The objective of the Task is to update the QC Mini-Model using FY 2025 SNAP

QC data and current program rules.

Subtask 5.1: Update the QC Mini-Model

The Contractor shall update the QC Mini-Model to use most recent FY 2025 SNAP QC data and make any needed changes to program parameters reflecting routine cost-of-living adjustments, legislative changes, and State options and demonstration projects. The

Contractor shall prepare a memorandum to inform FNS within three business days of model completion and provide the programming code used to create the QC Mini-Model within 10 weeks of model completion.

Deliverable 5.1.1 – Notice of Completion

Deliverable 5.1.2 – Programming Code for QC Mini-Model

Subtask 5.2: Prepare Model Documentation

The Contractor shall prepare technical documentation for the QC Mini-Model and the FY

2025 QC data, which shall explain the programming code provided under Task 5.1, document revisions implemented in the model, and include a list of variables, including codes.

The technical document shall describe all steps taken to prepare the QC file. This documentation shall provide:

1. An overview of the SNAP QC database and Quality Control system;

2. A description of the raw data file;

3. A description of data processing, editing, variable construction, and weighting, including a record of the decisions made in the data editing process and the rationale for each edit decision;

4. Basic characteristics of the final data file;

5. A detailed codebook that documents each variable, its origin (reported or constructed), range, valid response codes and descriptions, missing value specifications, and cautions or notes on use in analysis;

6. A quick reference codebook with variable names, origin, and description.

The Contractor shall submit a draft for FNS to review within 30 weeks of receipt of the initial

FY 2025 QC data. Upon receipt of comments from FNS, the Contractor shall prepare a final electronic version of the documentation incorporating FNS’s comments within 38 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data. This final draft shall be section 508-compliant.

Deliverable 5.2.1 – Draft Technical Documentation

Deliverable 5.2.1 – Final Technical Documentation

Task 6: Prepare the FY 2025 SNAP Household Characteristics Report

General Information: For many years FNS has released annual reports describing persons and households participating in SNAP. These reports use the SNAP QC data to examine the demographic characteristics and economic circumstances of SNAP households at the national and State level.

Objective: The objective of this Task is to prepare a report showing the demographic characteristics and economic circumstances of SNAP households and individual participants.

This report shall be similar in content and format to the series of past reports.

Subtask 6.1: Prepare FY 2025 Report on the Characteristics of SNAP Households and

Individuals

The Contractor shall prepare a report describing characteristics of SNAP households using the most current SNAP QC data. Like reports from prior years, the report shall contain an executive summary, introduction, overview of SNAP, a discussion of the characteristics of

SNAP households and individual participants for that year, a list of acronyms and definitions, appendices with detailed tables, including national and State-specific tables, appendices showing SNAP eligibility guidelines and program parameters, appendices discussing the data source and sampling errors of estimates, and an appendix showing the data collection instrument. Although the exact nature of the text and detailed appendix tables may change, most data series shall be preserved to allow historical comparisons.

The Contractor shall submit a draft report to FNS for review within 25 weeks of receipt of the initial QC data. Within three weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the draft report, the

Contractor shall submit a revised report incorporating the comments. Within three weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the revised report, The Contractor shall submit a clearance report to FNS incorporating the comments. Within three weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the clearance report, the Contractor shall deliver an electronic version of the final report.

25 final hard-bound copies of the final report shall also be delivered to FNS within five weeks of the COR’s approval to print. The final characteristics report shall be section 508-compliant.

Each subsequent version of the report must incorporate FNS’s feedback.

Deliverable 6.1.1 – Draft Characteristics Report

Deliverable 6.1.2 – Revised Characteristics Report

Deliverable 6.1.3 – Clearance Characteristics Report

Deliverable 6.1.4 – Final Characteristics Report (electronic)

Deliverable 6.1.5 – Final Characteristics Report (25 hard-bound copies)

Subtask 6.2: Prepare Electronic Data File of the FY 2025 Report Tables

The Contractor shall submit an MS excel workbook of all the data tables in the Characteristics report, and all the data files and programming code used to generate the tables in SAS, Stata, and R. Deliverables under this subtask shall be delivered to the COR within one week of submitting the electronic copy of the final characteristics report.

Deliverable 6.2.1 – Data Tables in Characteristics Report

Deliverable 6.2.2 – Data Files and Programming Code for Characteristics Report Data Tables

Task 7: Estimate State FY 2024 SNAP Participation Rates

Objective: The objective of this Task is to produce estimates of the number of eligible persons, and the participation rate (percentage of eligible persons who participate) at the State level for the overall population and any subgroups as specified by the COR.

Subtask 7.1: Finalize Study Plan

The Contractor shall submit a complete study plan that details the approach for addressing this Task. The study plan shall include an overview of the Task; describe Task objectives;

include a detailed discussion of methods, including data sources and analysis plan; discuss reporting; and provide the Task schedule. This plan shall serve as a comprehensive roadmap to the work to be performed under this Task. The Contractor shall provide a draft study plan in the form of a memorandum within six weeks of the beginning of the period of performance. A final study plan, including revisions requested by FNS, shall be delivered within two weeks of receiving comments from FNS.

Deliverable 7.1.1 – Draft Study Plan

Deliverable 7.1.2 – Final Study Plan

Subtask 7.2: Estimate FY 2024 State SNAP Participation Rates

The Contractor shall update earlier estimates on State SNAP eligibility and participation rates for the general population and specific subgroups as specified by the COR. In prior years, this involved several steps, which may or may not be applicable depending on the methodology proposed by the Contractor (alternative techniques appropriate to small area estimation shall be considered):

a) Derive direct estimates of FY 2024 State SNAP participation rates for three years using the appropriate CPS ASEC data, the appropriate SNAP QC data and program operations data provided by FNS, and State population estimates from available from the Census Bureau.

b) Use regression techniques to predict FY 2024 State SNAP participation rates based on

FNS administrative data, ACS data, and other necessary data sources, depending on technique.

c) Use empirical Bayes shrinkage estimation methods to average the direct sample estimates and regression predictions to obtain preliminary estimates.

d) Make any adjustments to preliminary estimates to obtain the final estimate of State

SNAP participation rates.

The Contractor shall repeat the estimation procedure for subgroups as specified by the COR, such as households with earned income (“the working poor”) or households with an elderly member.

The Contractor shall prepare a memorandum providing the preliminary participation rate estimates for States, Regions, and the United States for all eligible people and any specified subgroups in three years. The Contractor shall submit the memorandum within four weeks of receiving all data required to generate regression model to estimate the participation rates.

The Contractor will select some stock images of individuals purchasing, preparing, or consuming food and send them to FNS for FNS to select for the research brief.

Deliverable 7.2.1 – Memorandum on Preliminary Participation Rates

Subtask 7.3: Prepare a Research Brief Presenting FY 2024 State SNAP Participation

Rates

The Contractor shall submit a draft research brief for FNS to review within four weeks of submission of the memorandum of the preliminary State participation rate estimates. The research brief shall be tailored to a broad audience and written in non-technical language. The research brief shall be produced to be similar in appearance to recent research briefs, with additional data visualizations to convey information on participation rates. The Contractor shall select some stock images of individuals purchasing, preparing, or consuming food and send them to FNS for FNS to select for the research brief.

Within four weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the draft research brief, the Contractor shall then submit a revised research brief. Within one week of FNS clearing the revised research brief, or upon receiving instructions from the COR, the Contractor shall prepare and deliver an electronic copy of the final research brief that is section 508-compliant. Each subsequent version of the data files and documentation must incorporate FNS’s feedback.

Deliverable 7.3.1 – Draft Research Brief

Deliverable 7.3.2 – Revised Research Brief

Deliverable 7.3.3 – Final Research Brief

Subtask 7.4: Prepare a Technical Report on FY 2024 State Participation Rates

The Contractor shall submit a draft technical report within four weeks of receiving comments from FNS on the draft research brief. The report shall include a step-by-step guide to preparing the estimates, describing each step in the estimation process. The report shall also include the actual estimates for the latest three FYs and include an appendix with additional technical details. Within two weeks of clearance of draft technical report, the Contractor shall prepare a final technical report and deliver a final electronic file that is section 508-compliant.

The Contractor shall submit all data files and programming code associated with this Task within two weeks of clearance of the final technical report.

Deliverable 7.4.1 – Draft Technical Report

Deliverable 7.4.2 – Final Technical Report

Deliverable 7.4.3 – Data Files and Programming Code

Task 8: Update the CPS and SIPP-Based Microsimulation Model

Period of Performance: September 1, 2025 – February 28, 2027

Objective: The objective of this Task is to update the existing MATH SIPP+ model, which uses CPS ASEC and SIPP data to estimate the impact of proposed changes to SNAP. In this

Task, the Contractor shall update the model with data from the new SIPP data file. FNS anticipates the Contractor will use the 2024 SIPP data.

Subtask 8.1: Finalize Study Plan

The Contractor shall submit a complete study plan that details the approach for addressing this Task. The study plan shall include an overview of the Task; describe Task objectives;

include a detailed discussion of methods, including data sources and analysis plan; discuss reporting; and provide the Task schedule. This plan shall serve as a comprehensive roadmap to the work to be performed under this Task. The Contractor shall provide a draft study plan in the form of a memorandum within four weeks of QA completion of SIPP data used to update the model. A final study plan, including revisions requested by FNS, shall be delivered within two weeks of receiving comments from FNS.

Deliverable 8.1.1 – Draft Study Plan

Deliverable 8.1.2 – Final Study Plan

Subtask 8.2: Update the Microsimulation Model

The Contractor shall update the model in accordance with the accepted study plan submitted under Subtask 8.1. To accomplish this Task, the Contractor shall, at a minimum:

a) Create the model database by extracting data from the most recently available

SIPP data;

b) Impute missing expense assets data and assign values to vehicles based on the year, make, and model;

c) Create State weights;

d) Simulate the number of households, participants, and benefits of those eligible for and those participating in the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Temporary

Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs;

e) Simulate the number of households, participants, and benefits of those eligible for and those participating in SNAP, ensuring that the characteristics of simulated participants in SNAP matches key characteristics of actual SNAP participants and that the total eligibility and participation in SNAP matches projected program totals supplied by FNS; and

f) Create a current baseline version of the model by incorporating current program rules, benefits, and participation totals.

After the model is updated, the Contractor shall provide a memorandum announcing the implementation of this Task, including any issues encountered in a draft implementation memo. The Contractor shall submit this draft implementation memo within 12 months of QA completion of the SIPP data used to update the model. Within two weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the draft implementation memo, the Contractor shall submit a final implementation memo.

The Contractor shall submit all data files and programing code used to create the MATH

SIPP+ model within 14 months after QA completion of SIPP data used to update the model.

Deliverable 8.2.1 – Draft Implementation Memorandum

Deliverable 8.2.2 – Final Implementation Memorandum

Deliverable 8.2.3 – Data Files and Programming Code

Subtask 8.3: Prepare Model Documentation

The Contractor shall prepare a Technical Working Paper (TWP) that provides a detailed description of the model development process. This paper shall include at a minimum:

a) An overview of the processing steps;

b) Changes to the MATH SIPP+ model including but not limited to changes to the file development processing, TANF benefit calculation, or SNAP and SSI deflation factors;

c) A description of data sources for the model – SIPP, CPS, and administrative data;

d) Creation of the model database;

e) Creation of State weights;

f) Simulating SSI units, eligibility, participation, and benefits;

g) Simulating TANF units, eligibility, participation, and benefits; and

h) Simulating SNAP units, eligibility, participation, and benefits.

The Contractor shall submit the draft TWP to the COR within 13 months after QA completion of the SIPP data used to update the model. Within three weeks of receiving comments from

FNS on the draft TWP, the Contractor shall prepare and submit an electronic version of the final TWP that is section 508-compliant

The Contractor shall also prepare a programmer’s guide to the model. This guide shall contain:

a) A brief overview of the purpose and function of each component.

b) An outline of the computational procedures used in each component including a description of relevant subroutines and a computational flowchart.

c) A description of all inputs to the system, including user-specified parameters, system parameters, and required variables from the database.

d) A description of all outputs and printouts (such as descriptions of the run set-up, initial values of parameters, summary tables, and error messages.

e) A description of any processing constraints.

f) Cross-references to the appropriate section in the technical documentation.

The Contractor shall submit the draft programmer’s guide within 14 months after QA completion of the SIPP data used to update the model. Within three weeks of receiving comments from FNS on the draft programmer’s guide, the Contractor shall deliver an electronic version of the final programmer’s guide that is section 508-compliant

Deliverable 8.3.1 – Draft Technical Working Paper

Deliverable 8.3.2 – Final Technical Working Paper

Deliverable 8.3.3 – Draft Programmer’s Guide

Deliverable 8.3.4 – Final Programmer’s Guide

Task 9: Prepare to Update the SNAP Participation Dynamics Report Series

Objective: The objective of this Task is to assess the feasibility of updating the SNAP

Participation Dynamics Report series with the re-engineered SIPP data. If found to be feasible, the Contractor shall also develop methodological recommendations for updating the report.

Subtask 9.1: Finalize Supplemental Work Plan

The Contractor shall develop a supplemental work plan by incorporating FNS-provided materials that cover initial details and plans for addressing subtask 9.1 and 9.2. The supplemental work plan shall include an overview of the Task; describe Task objectives;

include a detailed discussion of methods, such as data sources and analysis plan; discuss reporting; and provide the Task schedule. This plan shall serve as a comprehensive roadmap to the work to be performed under this Task. The Contractor shall submit a draft supplemental work plan within eight weeks of contract award, and a final supplemental work plan that incorporates FNS’s comments within two weeks of receiving FNS’s comments on the draft supplemental work plan.

Deliverable 9.1.1 – Draft Supplemental Work Plan

Deliverable 9.1.2 – Final Supplemental Work Plan

Subtask 9.2: Assess Feasibility of Updating the SNAP Participation Dynamics Report

Series

The Contractor shall conduct a study to assess the feasibility of updating the SNAP

Participation Dynamics analysis using re-engineered SIPP data. The feasibility study shall include a focused analysis of sample sizes across available SIPP panels to verify sufficient data for robust analyses similar to those conducted in earlier SNAP Dynamics studies. It will also identify which subgroups have sufficient sample sizes for meaningful analysis and which may need to be dropped or modified for some Panels.

This subtask includes four components:

a) Initial sample size analysis: The Contractor shall calculate the total available sample sizes for the 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2021-2022 SIPP Panels (the 2021-2022

SIPP Panels will have reduced longitudinal follow-up).

b) Effective sample size analysis: The Contractor shall determine the effective samples available for analysis for each individual Panel and pooled configuration, such as the number of at-risk individuals for new entrant analysis and the number of individual SNAP entrants.

c) Reported dynamics assessment: The Contractor shall assess the extent of muted and under-reported dynamics for each individual Panel and by Panel-length option

(48 versus 36 months), by quantifying the number of observed SNAP spells, the number of SNAP spells by length, and the number and percentage of spells with certain characteristics.

d) Discussions with FNS: The Contractor shall consult with FNS to understand how it uses the SNAP…