Predictive Science Incorporated

Predictive Science Incorporated (doing business as Predictive Science Inc.), a for-profit research and analysis firm based in San Diego, California, operates as a prime recipient on federal research grants and contracts focused on space weather modeling, solar physics, and heliophysics, competing predominantly in full-and-open (non-set-aside) federal R&D programs with recurring Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I and Phase III set-aside participation.

The company's capability portfolio centers on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computational modeling, space weather forecasting, coronal mass ejection (CME) analysis, and solar wind prediction. Representative prime work includes a $1.679 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract from the Office of Naval Research (awarded September 2024, performance through September 2029) for modeling and analysis support on the WISPR and SOLOHI space missions; a $3.877 million grant from NASA's Shared Services Center (awarded June 2022) for DYNAMCS, a dynamically evolving model of CMEs and solar energetic particles; a $1.046 million grant from NASA's Shared Services Center (awarded June 2024) for research on CME evolution in the corona and inner heliosphere; and three recent SBIR Phase I contracts from the Shared Services Center—valued at $224,699 (FLAREFirst solar flare prediction tool, September 2026), $149,936 (probabilistic forecasts of solar energetic particles, September 2025), and $149,362 (advanced surface flux transport model, August 2024). The company also holds active NSF research grants including a $578,828 award (May 2025–April 2028) from the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences for SHINE research on how surface flux evolution determines coronal and heliospheric structure, and a $182,730 award (May 2025–April 2028) for collaborative research on coronal physics using total solar eclipse data.

Customer concentration is extreme. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Shared Services Center represents 99 of 137 total awards (72% of the portfolio) with $26.2 million in combined potential value; NASA Headquarters accounts for 8 additional awards ($4.2 million); and the National Science Foundation's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences and the Office of Naval Research round out the top-tier customer set. Together, the top five funding organizations account for 91% of awards. The customer distribution reflects pure-science focus: all work is basic or applied research in space physics and heliophysics, with no apparent integration or operations contracts.

The company's prime/sub split skews heavily toward prime recipient status (95% of awards). Sub-award work is limited to five grant sub-awards under university prime recipients—University of California Los Angeles, University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology—where Predictive Science provides supporting analysis on CME morphology, magnetic field characterization, and space weather research. One sub-award under the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists for influenza forecasting represents an outlier.

Activity has remained modest in scale. The past five-year pattern shows peaks in 2025 (11 awards) and 2022 (7 awards) with intervening years of 5 awards each. Two awards have posted in 2026 as of the snapshot date. The recompete cliff presents minimal risk: thirteen awards with ultimate completion dates within the next twenty-four months carry combined potential value of only $1.9 million. The portfolio's combined obligated dollars ($62 million) exceed combined potential value ($37 million) by 68 percent, reflecting substantial prior-year funding that has already flowed.

Predictive Science competes almost entirely outside SBIR set-asides. SBIR Phase I and Phase III awards recur across recent years but remain a small fraction of the overall portfolio; the vast majority of the company's work is full-and-open federal research funding. The vendor does not carry GWAC, BPA, or parent vehicle seats in the source data. NAICS concentration runs to 541710 (Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences, except Biotechnology and Nanotechnology); PSC coding centers on R&D—Space (Science and Applications, Basic Research) and related basic-research codes.