Mathematica Inc.

Mathematica Inc., a woman-owned research and data analytics consultancy headquartered in Washington, DC, delivers program evaluation, policy research, and data analysis services to civilian federal agencies primarily as a prime contractor on indefinite delivery vehicles and delivery orders, with 99% of recent awards in the prime position. The company is a Subchapter S Corporation and subsidiary of the nonprofit Research Triangle Institute (RTI) International, competing full-and-open across federal agencies without set-aside designations.

Mathematica's customer base concentrates heavily in health and social service evaluation. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services anchors the portfolio by potential value—75 awards worth $12.55 billion combined, driven largely by a $3.5 billion RMADA 3 IDIQ awarded July 9, 2026, for analytic support and technical assistance under the Affordable Care Act. The Department of Agriculture Food and Nutrition Service ranks second by award count with 196 awards totaling $461.1 million, focused on SNAP program evaluation, WIC research, school nutrition studies, and microsimulation modeling. The Department of Labor Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy (28 awards, $161.5 million) and the Administration for Children and Families (32 awards, $153.4 million) form the next tier, reflecting Mathematica's deep engagement in workforce and family support program evaluation. The five largest customers account for 88% of combined potential value but only 55% of award count, indicating that CMS's dollar concentration masks a broad customer base across 57 distinct federal agencies.

The company's capability portfolio centers on rigorous program evaluation and evidence-building methodologies. Representative contracts illustrate the scope: a $26.8 million FNS BPA call (April 2024) for SNAP longitudinal household recruitment and data collection; a $19.1 million ACF delivery order (April 2026) under the National Study of Data Systems evaluating family support and child welfare programs; a $12.1 million ACF delivery order (September 2023) for the NextGen 2.0 employment strategies program; a $9.98 million Education Department BPA call (August 2022) evaluating state vocational rehabilitation program innovations; a $9.63 million ACF delivery order (September 2023) under the Sexual Risk Avoidance Education Performance Analysis Study 2.0; and a $10.4 million HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy call (September 2024) for Administrative Data Research and Analysis services. Across these engagements, Mathematica performs data acquisition, statistical analysis, longitudinal research design, survey administration, qualitative research, microsimulation modeling, technical assistance, and cross-site evaluation—typically self-performing the majority of work.

Mathematica holds significant parent-vehicle positioning. The Professional Services Schedule anchors 407 task orders worth $619.8 million, making it the largest single vehicle. The General Services Administration Multiple Award Schedule carries 135 task orders valued at $1.29 billion. The RMADA 3 IDIQ (32 task orders, $658.9 million) positions Mathematica as a core analytic partner for CMS innovations. Mathematica also holds eleven single-award BPAs: a $99 million Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office vehicle (September 2023) spanning five years through September 2028, issued against which are Wagner-Peyser employment service evaluation, USMCA research, WIOA wage interchange, and other calls; a $49.6 million FNS longitudinal SNAP household studies BPA (September 2023); a $40 million FNS school nutrition and meal cost study BPA (September 2023); a $25 million FNS summer nutrition programs BPA (September 2024); a $12 million FNS SNAP microsimulation services IDIQ (September 2025); a $6.65 million Social Security Administration Disability Analysis File construction IDC (December 2021); a $5.5 million FNS WIC certification and improper payment BPA (September 2024); and a $4 million Institute of Museum and Library Services learning agenda BPA (September 2023). A $45 million Department of Labor WIOA technical assistance BPA (September 2021) and a $61.3 million Corporation for National and Community Service dissemination and evaluation BPA (November 2021) round out recent vehicles.

Activity has been strong but is decelerating. Awards per year peaked in 2024 at 46 (including IDVs), dipped to 14 in 2025, and fell to 4 in the first half of 2026 (snapshot date July 15, 2026). Over the full 755-award dataset (spanning 1982 to present), combined potential value reaches $15.36 billion, with only $1.8 billion obligated (12% of ceiling). SCI-reported invoicing across FY2022–FY2024 totaled $331.5 million—$116.4 million in FY2022, $111.9 million in FY2023, and $103.1 million in FY2024—reflecting a declining trend. FTE delivery tracked parallel: 301 FTEs in FY2022, 316 in FY2023, and 280 in FY2024. Thirty-one awards (combined potential value $173.7 million) face completion within the next twenty-four months and will require recompete.

Mathematica operates primarily through direct delivery rather than subcontracting. On prime contracts tracked in SCI, the company self-performed approximately 96% of contractor hours and reported an average subcontractor share of 4% across 94 named subs. Named sub relationships appear situational: Mission Analytics Group provided HIV/AIDS program data analysis support on the $5.64 million HRSA Ryan White benchmarking contract (May 2024); the University of California, Davis supplied scientific research and testing support on the $9.4 million AHRQ quality indicators contract (September 2023); American Institutes for Research and MEF Associates subcontracted on the $8.67 million DOL Wagner-Peyser evaluation (October 2024); and Bland & Associates provided accounting and compliance support on the $5.16 million HHS Ryan White chart abstraction order (September 2024). The company also subcontracts to larger primes—ICF Incorporated engaged Mathematica for technical support on early care and education research and child care policy consortium work; Purdy Group LLC used Mathematica for website operations and strategic communications; and MDRC drew Mathematica into fatherhood program evaluation collaboration.

GSA Schedule labor rates span $35.84/hr (entry-level clerical) through $473.68/hr (IT executive roles with 15 years' experience at bachelor's level). No security-cleared positions are offered. The spectrum covers digital communication, health IT security, program management, policy analysis, and subject matter expert roles at master's-degree level, consistent with the evaluation and policy research mission.

On the federal grant side, Mathematica acts as sub-recipient under Washington University and Boston College prime grants focused on disability policy research using Social Security administrative data and the National Beneficiary Survey. The scale is small relative to contract work.

The company's award distribution by sector reflects its civilian-focused positioning: administrative management consulting dominates the NAICS breakdown (492 awards), social science research and development ranks second (44 awards), and mathematical/statistical analysis (48 awards in PSC) and program evaluation (47 awards in PSC) anchor the service-line structure. No defense or security-cleared work appears in the visible portfolio.

Mathematica competes full-and-open across civilian agencies without set-aside reliance, positioning itself as a large federal contractor competing on capability and track record rather than small-business or disadvantaged-business vehicles. The firm's woman-owned designation is structural rather than strategically leveraged in its contract awards.