TanzaniaFTFMulti-YearStrategy__Attachment_12.pdf

TANZANIA

FY 2011–2015 Multi-Year Strategy

U.S. Government Document

The Feed the Future (FTF) Multi-Year Strategies outline the five-year strategic planning for the

U.S. Government‘s global hunger and food security initiative. These documents represent coordinated, whole-of-government approaches to address food security that align in support of partner country priorities. The strategies reflect analysis and strategic choices made at the time of writing and while interagency teams have formally approved these documents, they may be modified as appropriate.

Document approved February 22, 2011 feedthefuture.gov

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

1. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

1.1 CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES

1.2 OPPORTUNITIES

1.3 FEED THE FUTURE (FTF) STRATEGIC CHOICES

1.3.1 Targeted value chains

1.3.2 Targeted regions

1.3.3 Cost-benefit analysis

1.3.4 Opportunities for collaboration

1.3.5 Gender considerations

1.3.6 Natural resource management and climate change issues

1.3.7 Regional issues

2. FEED THE FUTURE OBJECTIVE, PROGRAM STRUCTURE, AND

IMPLEMENTATION

2.1 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 1: IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

2.2 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 2: EXPANDING MARKETS AND TRADE

2.3 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 3: INCREASED INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE- AND NUTRITION-RELATED ACTIVITIES

2.4 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 4: INCREASED RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES AND HOUSEHOLDS

2.5 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 5: IMPROVED ACCESS TO DIVERSE AND QUALITY FOODS

2.6 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 6: IMPROVED NUTRITION-RELATED BEHAVIORS AND INTERMEDIATE RESULT 7: IMPROVED

UTILIZATION OF MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH AND NUTRITION SERVICES

2.7 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 8: IMPROVED ENABLING POLICY ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH AGRICULTURE AND NUTRITION

3. CORE INVESTMENT AREAS

3.1 TARGETED VALUE CHAINS

3.1.1 Rice

3.1.2 Maize

3.1.3 Horticulture

3.2 CORE INVESTMENT AREA 1A: SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION THROUGH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND

PROCESSING

3.2.1 NAFAKA – Staples Value Chain Development (Rice and Maize)

3.2.2 Market-Based Solutions to Reduce Poverty and Improve Nutrition

3.2.3 Sustainable Horticulture for Income and Food Security in Tanzania (SHIFT)

3.2.4 Tanzania Agriculture Productivity Program (TAPP)

3.3 CORE INVESTMENT AREA 1B: SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION THROUGH MARKET ACCESS AND SUSTAINABLE

NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

3.3.1 Engineering Service Component

3.3.2 Irrigation Infrastructure Component

3.3.3 Rural Roads Infrastructure Component

3.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation Component

3.4 CORE INVESTMENT AREA 2: IMPROVING NUTRITION

3.4.1 Flagship Nutrition Program

3.5 CORE INVESTMENT AREA 3: CAPACITY BUILDING AND SUPPORT SERVICES

3.5.1 Support to Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development (CAADP) Post Compact Activities

3.5.2 Africa Leadership Training and Capacity Building

3.5.3 Sokoine University of Agriculture Capacity Building

3.6 CORE INVESTMENT AREA 4: ENABLING POLICY ENVIRONMENT

3.6.1 Enabling Policy Environment for Agricultural Sector Growth

4. MONITORING AND EVALUATION

5. FINANCIAL PLANNING

6. MANAGEMENT

7. ANNEX: FEED THE FUTURE INDICATORS

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AGRA Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa

AgCLIR Agribusiness Climate Legal Institution Reform

AOTR Agreement Officer Technical Representative

ASARECA Association for Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa

ASDP Agriculture Sector Development Program

BEST Business Environment Strengthening of Tanzania

BizCLIR Business Climate Legal Institutional Reform

CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program

CGIAR Consultative Group of International Agriculture Research

CFP Cochrane Fellowship Program

COMPETE Competitiveness and Trade Expansion

COTR Contracting Officer Technical Representative

CRSP Collaborative Research Support Program

DAI Development Alternatives Incorporated

DCA Development Credit Authority

DFID Department for International Development

DPG Development Partners Group

EAC Eastern Africa Community

EGAT Economic Growth, Agriculture and Trade

FANTA Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FCI Financial Crisis Initiative

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FEWSNET Famine Early Warning System Network

FY Fiscal Year

GATE Greater Access to Trade Expansion

GBS General Budget Support

GDA Global Development Alliance

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFSR Global Food Security Response

GOT Government of Tanzania

HEPAD Higher Education Partnerships for African Development

HBS Household Budget Survey

IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture

IFAD International Fund for Agriculture Development

IQC Indefinite Quantity Contract iWASH Integrated Water, Sanitation and Hygiene program

JAST Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania

LGU Land Grant University

MAFSC Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MEMS Monitoring and Evaluation Management System

MKUKUTA National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (GOT)

MT Metric Tons

MUS Multiple Use Services

NAPA National Adaptation Plan for Action

NBS National Bureau of Statistics

NEPAD New Partnership for Africa‘s Development

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NAR National Agricultural Research

OTA Office of Technical Assistance

PAPA Participating Agency Program Agreement

PLACE Prosperity, Livelihoods and Conservation Ecosystems

PLHA People Living with HIV/AIDS

PESA Private Enterprise Support Activities

RANET Radio and Internet for the Communication of Hydro-Meteorological &Climate

Related Information

SADC Southern Africa Development Community

T-MEMS Tanzania Monitoring and Evaluation Management Services

TAHA Tanzania Horticultural Association

TASTA Tanzania Seed Trade Association

TFNC Tanzania Food and Nutrition Center

TMA Tanzania Meteorological Agency

TPSF Tanzania Private Sector Foundation

TTIS Tanzania Trade Integration Strategy

USACE United States Army Corps of Engineering

USAID United States Agency for International Development

USG United States Government

USDA United States Department of Agriculture

USTDA United States Trade and Development Agency

WFP World Food Program

WID Women in Development

WLTIE Women‘s Leadership Training in Economics

WTO World Trade Organization

1. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

1.1 CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES

Tanzania is a democratic republic of 40 million people, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 6-7 percent over the past decade. Despite recent growth of the Tanzanian economy, the poverty rate has only decreased two percent and the number of people below the poverty line has actually increased due to population growth since 2001. Human development indicators, though improving gradually, remain low. It is unlikely that Tanzania will be able to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 without significant additional intervention. While nationally, 34 percent of Tanzanians are below the income poverty line, some regions have as much as half the population unable to meet their basic needs.

Although decreasing, the national HIV prevalence rate is 5.7 percent. The country has high population growth, with 43 percent of the population under the age of 15.

Agriculture continues to be the mainstay of the economy, contributing close to 26 percent of GDP and employing 75 percent of the labor force, with women contributing to more than 75 percent of the agricultural labor. Tanzania is a net importer of rice; however, with improved yields, it could fulfill growing domestic and regional demand. Furthermore, while Tanzania is largely self-sufficient in its main staple crop, maize, it still faces shortfalls in some years due to weather variability and low yields.

Climate change impacts could pose serious threats to subsistence farmers, including prolonged drought as well as extreme and unpredictable weather events. Limited financial resources, weak infrastructure, and poor policies have not provided incentives to develop the agricultural sector. Only nine percent of the Tanzanian population has access to formal financial services, and only four percent has received a personal loan from a bank. Further, the credit squeeze resulting from the global financial crisis was felt acutely in Tanzania‘s agriculture sector.

A key factor undermining Tanzania‘s progress towards economic growth and poverty reduction is chronic undernutrition, which currently affects four out of every ten children under five nation-wide1 .

Undernutrition diminishes the ability of children to grow, learn and earn income as adults, and thus contribute to the economy. It is caused primarily by inadequate access to a diverse and quality diet and poor caring and feeding practices at the household level. Undernutrition begins even before children are born because over half of pregnant women suffer from anemia2 . Undernutrition also costs Tanzania

2.65 percent of its GDP, due to lost revenues mainly in the agriculture sector that are attributable to poor cognitive and physical development.

1.2 OPPORTUNITIES

Agricultural Opportunities

Despite the above-mentioned challenges, the opportunities are great for Tanzania to reduce poverty and hunger by increasing incomes through equitable agricultural growth and improving nutrition. Domestic advocates for an agriculture-based economic growth model in Tanzania describe the country as a sleeping agricultural giant. The potential is great, with a country abundant in land, water resources, motivated agricultural laborers and entrepreneurs and access to international markets through a major port. Women are already participating in value chain work, thus there is opportunity to both engage and empower them as beneficiaries of value chain efforts. The climate is generally favorable for many crops, and with increased irrigation and improved seeds, productivity and yields could rapidly increase.

1 TDHS 2009/10

2 TDHS 2009/10

Nutrition Opportunities

Efforts are already underway in country to reposition nutrition higher on the national policy agenda, recognizing that addressing the root causes of undernutrition in Tanzania would have huge potential for reducing under-five mortality, increasing work productivity and improving economic growth. Tanzania is recognized as an ―Early Riser‖ under the global Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Framework for Action, and both the National Nutrition Strategy (2010-2015) and the nutrition component of the Tanzania

Agriculture and Food Security Implementation Plan (TAFSIP) provide a solid foundation from which the

Government and development partners can advance a common agenda for improving nutrition.

Political Commitment to Agriculture and Food Security Investment

The Tanzanian government, private sector, and civil society have recently demonstrated a sustained commitment to realize the potential of agriculture for Tanzania. The Government of Tanzania‘s (GOT)

2006-2015 Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP) is part of the broader National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUKUTA). A private sector initiative to invigorate agriculture through the Kilimo Kwanza (Agriculture First) campaign has been endorsed by the government as well.

Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania

Other actors are coalescing around Tanzania‘s country-led plan and the opportunities that it offers.

One element of the Tanzanian plan includes strategic investments in the Southern Agricultural Growth

Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT). It is a public-private partnership which aims to boost agricultural competitiveness in Tanzania by aligning investment in agriculture with existing infrastructure from the port of Dar es Salaam through the central and southern parts of the country to Zambia. The partnership is being led by numerous Tanzanian private sector companies represented by their umbrella organization, the Agriculture Council of Tanzania. International support for SAGCOT includes General

Mills, Yara International, Unilever, Syngenta, DuPont, Land ‗O Lakes, Monsanto, and SAB Miller. The

SAGCOT investment blueprint was presented by the Tanzanian President at the World Economic

Forum in January 2011. More than 80 percent of FTF investments will be located in the corridor.

Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program

Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) analytics3 for the compact flagged that in order to effectively reduce poverty and food insecurity, a key challenge will be to address the underlying problems in the structure and level of growth among the different subsectors. In order to maximize the impact of growth on poverty reduction and food security, growth must be broader, inclusive of value chains in which the poor participate, and targeted to reach as many poor people as possible. In addition, the analysis recommended that Tanzania should invest more in research and extension to address the underlying causes of low productivity in the pro-poor value chains.

Based on these recommendations, numerous stakeholders have been actively developing the CAADP plan, known as the TAFSIP. With development of a comprehensive country-led investment plan through

CAADP, conditions are ideal for Tanzania to benefit from significant increases in agricultural assistance to support scaled impact on food security, poverty, nutrition and economic growth.

3 Conducted as part of the CAADP compact process.

1.3 FEED THE FUTURE (FTF) STRATEGIC CHOICES

Within this dynamic context, the U.S. Government (USG) commitments through FTF have been designed to complement the work of other actors and make a significant impact through areas of comparative advantage for the USG. The key FTF investments will be made along four categories where the USG can play the role of ―superconductor‖ to advance systemic change through innovative public and private partnerships:

Table 1. Feed the Future Core Investment Areas

CORE INVESTMENT AREAS

1 Systems transformations for the rice, maize, and horticulture value chains through:

- Agricultural Production and Processing

- Market Access and Natural Resource Management

2 Nutrition, with major interventions targeting children under five and pregnant women

3 Agricultural Support Services and Capacity Building, including research and development and financial services

4 Enabling Policy Environment, by addressing major binding constraints

1.3.1 Targeted value chains

FTF will have the highest impact with focused interventions in areas that offer opportunities to reduce poverty and undernutrition. Selection of value chains was based on analysis of potential to improve incomes and nutrition, prioritization by the country, and complementary interventions by other actors.

Below are brief descriptions of the targeted value chains, with further details in Section 3.

Rice was selected as the primary value chain for investment. Regional analysis shows that

Tanzania has a comparative advantage in rice production, although there are opportunities to enhance competitiveness. It is the second most important food in terms of consumption in

Tanzanian diet, and has been increasing as a proportion of the Tanzanian diet, and also has potential to provide for regional market demand. Since nearly 1 in 5 farmers are involved in rice production, advances in this value chain can support broad-based growth.

Maize was selected as a secondary value chain. It is the most important food item in terms of consumption in the Tanzanian diet. Nearly two-thirds of Tanzanian farmers are engaged in maize production, so broad pro-poor growth can be achieved by targeting this value chain. The milling process offers opportunities to enhance capacity of medium private sector milling enterprises to fortify food to improve nutrition. A complementary diplomatic strategy will address the trade policies that have hampered growth in this value chain.

Horticulture will be the other secondary focus value chain. It offers the opportunity for increased income through meeting demand in domestic, regional and international markets, as well as playing an important role to improve nutrition through dietary diversity. Women are highly engaged in this value chain.

1.3.2 Targeted regions

FTF Tanzania will focus the scope of interventions to achieve scalable high growth impact on the

―productive‖ poor in targeted areas. Morogoro and Zanzibar will be the focus of irrigated rice production, while maize value chains will be promoted in Dodoma and Manyara regions. Horticulture value chains are focused in the central, northern and southern highland regions, as well as Zanzibar.

Dodoma, Manyara and Morogoro have been identified as the primary regions of focus for nutrition-related interventions.

FTF investments are targeted in regions selected for their agricultural growth potential and opportunity for reducing undernutrition and poverty. The areas were prioritized by GOT and private investors, and can leverage complementary investments from other donors. These areas are within close proximity of transport corridors for market access and impact on nearby food insecure areas. The water resources and climatic conditions are appropriate for selected value chains.

The 2007 Household Budget Survey (HBS) indicates that well over one-third of people in FTF target rural areas live below the poverty line (37.6 percent), much higher than in Dar es Salaam (16.4 percent), or in other urban areas (24.1 percent). Poverty is particularly acute in Zanzibar, where nearly half (49 percent) of approximately one million people live below the income poverty line. Both Dodoma and

Manyara suffer from chronic food shortages despite strong potential for agricultural development.

Dodoma has the highest rates of chronic undernutrition among children under five in the country (56 percent).

Table 2. Feed the Future Targeted Regions

Value

Chain

Region Districts

Rice Morogoro and Zanzibar Mvomero, Kilombero and Zanzibar

Maize Manyara and Dodoma Kiteto and Kongwa

Horticulture Arusha, Manyara, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, Coast, Dodoma, Iringa, Mbeya and

Zanzibar

Arumeru, Babati, Karatu, Hai, Moshi-rural, Lushoto, Korogwe, Kibaha, Bagamoyo, Kisarawe, Mvomero and Zanzibar

1.3.3 Cost-benefit analysis

Agriculture

An estimated 834,000 vulnerable Tanzanian women, children, and family members---mostly smallholder farmers-will receive targeted assistance to escape hunger and poverty4.

Both financial and economic returns to investment in irrigation are extremely positive. A rapid cost-benefit analysis conducted by the mission for the irrigation project forecasts an internal rate of return

(IRR) of 24 percent, which is above the referenced minimum IRR of 12 percent used by the World Bank.

The assumptions for this cost-benefit analysis are based on a 20-year cost/benefit stream, two tons/ha incremental yields as the result of change from rain-fed to irrigated rice, and $700/ton wholesale price of rice (which is quite conservative as the price ranges between $700 and $1,000 per ton). A World Bank assessment (2010) of the development and rehabilitation of 46,000 hectares of irrigated land under the

Tanzanian ASDP program found that average yields for paddy rice increased from 1.9 tons to 4.5 tons per hectare and average gross income per hectare rose from Tsh 1.5 million to Tsh 3.6 million per year.5 The economic analysis observed that farm-level returns to community investments in irrigation

4 These preliminary targets were estimated based on analysis at the time of strategy development using estimated budget levels and ex-ante cost-beneficiary ratios from previous agriculture and nutrition investments. Therefore, targets are subject to significant change based on availability of funds and the scope of specific activities designed.

More precise targets will be developed through project design for specific Feed the Future activities.

5 World Bank IDA Pilot Crisis Response Window Study May 2010 technology exceeded the minimum increases required for a 12 percent Economic Rate of Return (ERR).

For rehabilitation, the ERR was 76 percent and for new irrigation development the ERR was 32 percent.

Nutrition

A review of published studies shows that investment in a comprehensive package of proven nutrition interventions can achieve a ―one-fifth to one-third decrease in stunting among children under five years over a two to three year period‖.6 Under the U.S. Government FTF Strategy more than 439,000 children will be reached with services to improve their nutrition and prevent stunting and child mortality7. Households reached through the nutrition flagship program will intentionally overlap with those targeted through the agriculture programs in order to maximize programmatic synergies and impact.

1.3.4 Opportunities for collaboration

There are many active donors in Tanzania, whose priorities are now being aligned with the country-led plans to ensure effective collaboration and coordination. The Agriculture Development Partners Group meets on a regular basis to coordinate planned assistance and discuss the government of Tanzania priorities. Most development assistance in Tanzania is in the form of General Budget Support (GBS) or basket funding. USAID‘s unique development modality has led both donors and GOT to request U.S.

Government support for specific activities where aid modalities have limited their ability to rapidly address short-term needs with potentially broad impact. GOT and donors recognize that USAID‘s comparative advantage is to rapidly respond with programs to support a thriving private sector-led agricultural transformation.

Food security and nutrition activities are coordinated between agriculture- and nutrition-related ministries: Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives; Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries;

Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing; Ministry of Health and Social Welfare; Tanzania Food and

Nutrition Center; and the Prime Minister‘s Office Regional Administration and Local Government.

USAID/Tanzania also participates in the Development Partners Group for Nutrition and the government-led Multisectoral Working Group on Nutrition. Civil society and private sector association partners include: The Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF), the Grain Council, Tanzania

Horticultural Association, the Agricultural Council of Tanzania, Tanzania Seed Association, the

Partnership for Nutrition and the Foundation for Civil Society. These entities were involved and consulted in the creation of the TAFSIP and FTF. With respect to gender, USAID/Tanzania is Co-Lead in the Development Partners Group on Gender, where it works to ensure that gender is adequately addressed in different GOT policy review processes such as those for Kilimo Kwanza, CAADP and the

National Nutrition Strategy.

6 Bhutta ZA, Ahmed T, Black R et al. What Works? Interventions for maternal and child undernutrition and survival. The Lancet (2008) 41-64. Advancing Nutrition for Long-Term, Equitable Growth (2008) World Bank, Tanzania Food and Nutrition Centre and UNICEF.Horton S, Shekar M, McDonald et al. Scaling Up Nutrition.

What will it cost? World Bank (2009).

7 These preliminary targets were estimated based on analysis at the time of strategy development using estimated budget levels and ex-ante cost-beneficiary ratios from previous agriculture and nutrition investments. Therefore, targets are subject to significant change based on availability of funds and the scope of specific activities designed.

More precise targets will be developed through project design for specific Feed the Future activities.

1.3.5 Gender considerations

Gender is a cross-cutting issue for FTF Tanzania. While horticulture production in Tanzania is considered a ―women‘s crop‖, women contribute significantly to all food production, processing, and marketing activities and are key participants in all staple value chains. Women form 75 percent of the agriculture labor force and are involved in all aspects of the horticulture, rice, and maize value chains.

Women are the main source of farm labor, yet they have limited participation in decision making and benefit little from the downstream portion of value chain activities such as warehouse receipt system, marketing, processing and trade. There is also gender inequality in access to productive resources

(particularly land and water resources and agricultural inputs such as improved seed and fertilizer) and to training and leadership opportunities.

Gender inequalities limit the growth potential of Tanzania. If FTF and the TAFSIP are to achieve their shared objectives of increasing agricultural growth, reducing poverty and improving nutritional status, explicit and specific attention to gender, particularly women‘s access to land, water, information, credit, technology training and leadership opportunities will be essential. The gender assessment conducted for

USAID/Tanzania‘s horticulture program (―Promoting Gender Equitable Opportunities in Agricultural

Value Chains‖, GATE, 2004-2009) provides lessons learned and recommendations that will be used not only for the horticulture value chain, but for the maize and rice value chains as well. The program included a focused effort to provide gender training and program-specific analyses and recommendations to USAID staff and program implementers. This approach will be replicated as new programs and implementing partners begin to engage in the rice and maize value chains and in the processing and policy components of the FTF program.

Following the recommendations from the Greater Access to Trade Expansion (GATE) project, FTF will promote gender equitable market facilitation by promoting women‘s access to membership and leadership positions in relevant organizations and ensuring that they have access to the productive assets they need. Examples include strengthening women‘s participation and leadership in farmer, processor, and irrigation organizations and ensuring market information and farm technologies such as improved seed varieties, fertilizer, and agriculture production and processing equipment are accessible to both men and women. FTF will also promote women‘s access to labor-saving agricultural equipment and technologies, and encourage household approaches to agriculture, gender and nutrition education and training. FTF will also ensure that women are engaged in and benefit from initiatives to improve the quantity and quality of horticulture, maize, and rice products, and will work with lending institutions to design women‘s and pro-poor business loan instruments, and advocate for the use of non-land assets and moveable property as collateral for loans.

While the nutritional investments are targeted to women and children, a household approach will be implemented to involve men and enhance their role in improving the nutritional status of the family.

Interventions will seek to ensure that work opportunities made available for women do not inadvertently impact negatively on child care and feeding practices at the household level. Agricultural research and training opportunities will be designed to increase the number of women participants and specific efforts will be undertaken to increase women‘s leadership and management roles in the agriculture sector and related research institutions.

Gender issues will also be integrated into the policy component of FTF. For example, while Tanzanian laws give women the right to own land and other property, in practice, discriminatory provisions in the law and customary practices often deny women the access to land and other property. Policy reform topics will therefore include addressing the inequitable status of women in land ownership in Tanzania, which has limited women‘s ability to access credit, invest in long-term production activities, and harness tangible assets they require to increase their income and reduce poverty.

Gender assessments will be undertaken as part of the monitoring and evaluation system, including establishing gender-sensitive indicators, baseline information and conducting impact assessments.

Additional gender analyses will also be undertaken during the early stages of the program to understand better the role of women in the rice and maize value chains and the impacts of agricultural programs on gender asset distribution and management.

Tanzania has a number of in-country gender resources which will be utilized during the implementation of FTF. Examples include the Tanzania Gender Networking Program, the Tanzania Women Lawyers

Association, the Tanzanian Women in Agriculture, Livestock and Environment, and other women business and agricultural organizations.

1.3.6 Natural resource management and climate change issues

Considering the potential near- and longer-term impacts of climate change is fundamental to sustainability of any agriculture intervention. Climate change impact scenarios for East Africa forecast extremes in precipitation and temperature, two of the most important factors in understanding and mitigating agricultural risk. The human dimensions of climate change bear fundamentally on our adaptive capacity to reduce risk. Therefore, it is fundamental to understand social, economic and environmental systems, barriers and opportunities to target basic and applied research to create information tools for decision-makers as they strive to increase their adaptive capacity. Key institutions for enhancing climate resilience in Tanzania include the Tanzania Meteorology Agency (TMA), the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFSC), and regional institutions such as the River Basin Management

Offices and Regional and District government offices in charge of land use planning and investment promotion.

Unchecked and ill-planned agricultural expansion is one of the most severe threats to Tanzania‘s natural resource base. There is a close linkage between poverty and environmental degradation. Tanzania‘s forests— valuable reservoirs of biodiversity and an important watershed resource critical for human health and agriculture—are being cleared at the alarming rate of 400,000 ha per year, the third highest deforestation rate in Africa. Agricultural expansion using existing techniques carries environmental costs as forests and wildlife areas are encroached on, as increasingly marginal land comes into cultivation, and as fish stocks are depleted.

Poorly planned settlement patterns coupled with high population growth have led to poor land use and unsustainable agricultural practices. If the USG goal is to create long-term, sustainable agricultural growth, it must be done in the context of conserving the natural resource base to sustain those activities for growing populations. FTF will support appropriate climate change vulnerability and impact assessments in targeted geographic regions in order to foster regional, integrated climate research focused on the needs of key decision-makers, such as the River Basin Management Offices and Regional and District land use planning programs. Working with TMA and MAFSC, innovations in climate information, across multiple timescales, will optimize decision-making with regards to improved seed varieties, timing of planting and harvest, and integrated water resources management to sustain irrigated agriculture. A climate change and water property rights assessment will be completed before construction of any irrigation schemes in order to effectively build in mitigation efforts and/or modify irrigation plans as needed.

1.3.7 Regional issues

The regional dimensions of investments are critical to ensuring regional food security. Tanzania is part of the East African Community and is pursuing closer economic integration, and the agricultural sector must be included in this framework. Investments at a regional level will focus on trade facilitation and harmonization. Furthermore, a regional approach will be taken to address surveillance and responses to trans-boundary diseases. The regional analytical and research capabilities of international organizations will be leveraged.

2. FEED THE FUTURE OBJECTIVE, PROGRAM STRUCTURE, AND

IMPLEMENTATION

FTF Tanzania‘s goal is to reduce the poverty rate and increase the agricultural sector annual growth rate from 3.2 to 6.3 percent (CAADP) by 2015 in the target areas8. FTF implementation will contribute to the broader country CAADP objectives. These high-level FTF Tanzania targets for poverty reduction and growth were determined using historical trend data from the National Bureau of Statistics reports, and are based on the assumption that FTF will be able to augment existing resources to achieve the planned transformations.

Improving nutrition is also a high level FTF goal. FTF Tanzania will aim to reduce the prevalence of underweight children and to reduce stunting among children aged 6 to 59 months from 49 percent to

39 percent in the FTF target regions (Dodoma, Manyara and Morogoro)9. The program will also aim to reduce maternal anemia by 20 per cent in target regions over the next five years.

Over the next five years, Feed the Future in Tanzania will also:

Assist nearly 900,000 vulnerable Tanzanian women, children, and family members – mostly smallholder farmers – to escape hunger and poverty.

Reach more than 400,000 children, improving their nutrition to prevent stunting and child mortality.

Significant numbers of additional rural populations will achieve improved income and nutritional status from strategic policy engagement and institutional investments.

8 The MDG estimated projection for poverty reduction is expected to be 3 percent per annum to achieve the desirable growth; however, historical data indicates reduction rate of less than 1per cent. With additional FTF resources we have used a target reduction rate of 1percent per annum.

According to the 2008 Lancet Journal Series on undernutrition, through investment in a comprehensive package of proven interventions, a one-fifth to one-third decrease in stunting among children under-five years can be achieved over a 2-3 year period.

Figure 1. Feed the Future Results Framework

First Level Objective:

Improved nutritional status esp. of women & children

Increased resilience of vulnerable communities and households

Increased agricultural value chain on- and off-farm jobs

Programs and policies to reduce inequities

Improved agriculture productivity

Improved markets

Increased investment in agriculture and nutrition-related activities

Improved access to diverse and quality foods

Improved nutrition-related behaviors

Improved use of maternal and child health and nutrition services

Programs and policies to support agriculture sector growth

Programs and policies to support positive gains in nutrition

Feed the Future Goal: Sustainably Reduce Global Poverty and Hunger

AVAILABILITY ACCESS UTILIZATIONSTABILITY

Programs and policies to increase access to markets and facilitate trade

First Level Objective:

Inclusive agriculture sector growth

Indicators: Prevalence of poverty & Prevalence of underweight children

Indicators: -Agriculture sector GDP

- Women’s and men’s incomes in rural households Indicators: -Prevalence of stunted children

-Prevalence of wasted children

-Prevalence of underweight women

-Gross margins per unit of land or animal of selected product

-Percent change in value of intra-regional exports of targeted commodities

- Value of incremental sales

(farm-/firm level)

-Value of new private investment in agriculture sector or value chain

-Jobs created by investment in agricultural value chains

-Household

Hunger Scale

-Dietary diversity for women and children

-Exclusive breastfeeding under six months -Prevalence of maternal anemia

Second-

Level

Objectives

Second-

Level

Objective

Indicators

Aggregated Agriculture Sector Results

FTF Tanzania aims to increase the quantity (25 percent for rice, 10 percent for maize and 20 percent for horticulture) and quality of food supply in the country and hence improve overall food availability and utilization. FTF will increase yields of target crops by at least 50 percent (rice from 2 to 3-4tons/ha, maize from 1.5 to 2.5 tons/ha) through dissemination and adoption by farmers of improved farm technologies and agronomic practices such as use of improved seeds and fertilizer. Irrigated agriculture will be promoted to improve productivity and to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The target is to increase the area under irrigation in Tanzania by 15.5 percent, from 306,000 ha to 353,000 ha, through development of smallholder irrigation schemes in Morogoro and Zanzibar.

FTF aims to enhance Tanzania‘s competitiveness in regional and international trade, and thereby increase trade in the targeted value chain by at least 25 percent. This target would be achieved through improved policy and regulatory framework, reduction in marketing cost and time through improved rural infrastructure, and improved efficiency in the value chain through the promotion of agro-processing, warehousing and market linkages. By 2015, FTF aims to rehabilitate 3,000 kilometers (km) of rural roads and increase the value of produce passing through warehouse receipt facilities, thus reducing postharvest losses (both roads and value linked to losses?) for maize and rice from 20 percent to 10 percent.

The above-mentioned FTF objectives will be achieved through intermediate results (IRs) which address the availability, access, stability, and utilization of food. The IRs are outlined in the FTF Results

Framework in Figure 1, and are common across all FTF focus countries. In addition, an intermediate result for policy reform has been added for FTF Tanzania, given the importance of achieving an enabling policy environment for both agriculture and nutrition.

Table 3. Intermediate Results Addressing the Availability, Access, Stability, and Utilization of Food

Increasing food availability and access

IR 1: Improved agricultural productivity

IR 2: Expanding markets and trade

IR 3: Increased investment in agriculture and nutrition-related activities

2.1 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 1: IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

FTF Tanzania is using a multi-faceted approach to improve productivity. The IR of improved agricultural productivity will be measured by the lead indicator of gross margin per unit of land for the focus commodities of rice, maize, and horticulture. Each of these activities will lead to improved agricultural productivity, which will lead to inclusive agriculture sector growth to reduce poverty and hunger.

Increasing the capacity of National Agricultural Research Services and Sokoine University of Agriculture to develop the quality of their agricultural programs will lead to enhanced human and institutional capacity for agricultural sector productivity. This in turn will enable Tanzanians to respond more quickly and efficiently to domestic agricultural challenges through enhanced technology development, dissemination, management and innovation. In addition, enhanced human capacity for policy formulation and implementation is critical to transformational development and sustainability.

The introduction of new technologies and management practices is expected to lead to new methods being adopted by producers that increase the gross margin per unit of land. The work of the research and development institutions will be closely linked with extension so that new technologies are shared with producers. In particular, technologies and practices that improve the capacity to address climate change will enable Tanzanians to respond to the variability of weather patterns. Increased knowledge of adaptation and mitigation mechanisms will lead to activities that help mitigate risks, improving the resiliency of producers. Major investments are planned to increase areas under irrigation. This is one method to reduce the dependence on rain-fed agriculture and increase the reliable supply of water. The regular supply of water will help to improve growing conditions and to increase productivity. Technologies to reduce women‘s workload will be researched and promoted.

By increasing the capacity of farmer organizations, FTF Tanzania will increase the knowledge of the producers in particular farming practices and link them to markets, which will lead to higher gross margins. Helping the members of these institutions will assist in improving the overall value of production in the agricultural value chain, improving productivity and contributing to a reduction in poverty. Furthermore, these investments in strengthening farmer organizations will help to ensure sustained positive impacts.

2.2 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 2: EXPANDING MARKETS AND TRADE

In order to achieve agriculture sector growth, it is essential that the increased productivity is linked to market access through expanding markets and trade. The lead indicator for this IR is the value of incremental sales attributed to FTF implementation.

Through FTF Tanzania, there will be improved linkages of rural communities to markets through improved rural roads. This is considered crucial to increasing agricultural and other rural-based production, as well as to increasing the access of rural communities to food at reasonable prices, and to greater off-farm employment opportunities. The construction of rural roads will reduce the cost of transport, which will help raise farmers‘ profits and incomes while reducing the cost to the consumer, enabling both populations to purchase more diverse foods for improved food security and nutrition. In addition, better rural roads will reduce the number of days required to trade, leading to increased competitiveness and increased access to markets, which will increase rural incomes and reduce poverty.

Other activities will include the following:

Reductions in postharvest losses will be achieved through the investments in rural roads, but also other programs to improve storage and handling. Post -harvest losses of foodstuffs and other agricultural products are typically a significant proportion of overall initial production in developing countries. A reduction in postharvest losses could therefore substantially increase both food and income available to rural households, and increase food availability to urban areas.

Small-scale processing is an area where women in Tanzania are already playing a big role.

Facilitating access to markets and ease of trade across borders will provide an incentive to improve agricultural output. Because the poor are mainly in farming or agricultural sector activities, simplifying trade will improve the incomes of the poor, particularly with target value chains linking smallholder outgrowers to domestic and regional markets.

Establishing a warehouse receipt system through the staples investments will enable producers to store their grains at harvest time when prices are low, use their stored grain as collateral for credit, and sell their grain later when prices are favorable.

2.3 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 3: INCREASED INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE-

AND NUTRITION-RELATED ACTIVITIES

FTF investments will help leverage public and private sector investment. Increased investment is the predominate source of economic growth in agriculture and other economic sectors. Private sector investment is critical because it indicates that the investment is perceived by private agents to provide a positive financial return and therefore is likely to lead to sustainable increases in agricultural production.

The lead indicator for this IR will be the value of new private sector investment in the agriculture sector, or food chain, leveraged by FTF implementation and percent of the national budget invested in agriculture and nutrition. Increased public and private investment in agriculture and nutrition related activities will involve the following:

Increased agricultural and rural financing lead to increased access to credit and greater investment in the agricultural sector. Greater access to credit can enable farmers to access improved seeds and fertilizer, production machinery, and processing equipment to increase their productivity, leading to higher rural incomes. A stimulated rural economy will increase the number of on-and off-farm jobs created. All of these will help strengthen agricultural sector growth.

Increased financial services for small and medium enterprises will stimulate agricultural business activity and contribute to the key objective of inclusive agriculture sector growth. A special focus on women can also promote their access to credit and investment opportunities, and hence, access and control of income, which will in turn support improved household food security, nutrition and child and maternal health.

Additionally, FTF Tanzania will facilitate public-private partnerships. By promoting public-private partnerships, there will be increased ability to leverage the capacity of the private sector in investment and encourage the government to apply policies and regulations that will be favorable to growth. One example of a model is through the dynamic investments planned through SAGCOT.

Training and capacity building programs for producers and processors will introduce new technologies and management practices, which will be adopted and increase the productivity per unit of land. This in turn will increase rural incomes and stimulate further investments in agriculture, leading to additional job creation in the agricultural sector. An emphasis on women‘s participation in capacity building programs will promote women‘s leadership and decision making capacities, for example, within food processor associations.

Increasing the capacity of private sector trade and advocacy organizations to provide services for their members and to push for an enabling environment for agricultural investment will ensure sustainability.

Meeting the CAADP commitment to increase public sector funding for agriculture to ten percent of the national budget will improve public goods such as research, extension, and infrastructure required to increase agricultural growth and stimulate private sector investment.

Together with other development partners, FTF Tanzania will support the Prime Minister‘s

Office, the Tanzania Food and Nutrition Centre, key sector ministries and civil society to develop, launch and lead in the implementation of a national nutrition education and communication program that will result in measurable improvements in terms of the quality and sustainability of nutrition service delivery at the district, ward, facility and community levels. USAID Tanzania has deliberately aligned its nutrition investments under both FTF and the Global Health

Initiatives in order to maximize synergies and results to be achieved across USG investments in agriculture, economic growth, health, HIV/AIDS, gender and water and sanitation.

Table 4. Intermediate Results for Increasing Food Stability and Utilization

Increasing food stability and utilization

IR 4: Increased resilience of vulnerable communities and households

IR 5: Improved access to diverse and quality foods

IR 6: Improved nutrition-related behaviors

IR 7: Improved utilization of maternal and child health and nutrition services

2.4 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 4: INCREASED RESILIENCE OF VULNERABLE

COMMUNITIES AND HOUSEHOLDS

This will be accomplished through the incorporation of nutrition outreach and behavior change activities to ensure both increases in household production and income lead to the purchase and consumption of higher quality foods and better feeding of young children. Efforts will be made to target both men and women so that new farming skills, access to inputs and services, and increases in income translate directly into improved health and wellbeing of children. The indicator to be used to measure this IR is

―the percentage of households with adequate food consumption‖.

2.5 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 5: IMPROVED ACCESS TO DIVERSE AND QUALITY

FOODS

This will be achieved through increasing community and household production of staples and quality foods like fruits, green and yellow vegetables, and animal proteins through community gardens, and poultry and livestock farming. Activities will also engage smallholder farmers to help maximize food preservation and processing techniques (e.g., through food fortification, drying and granaries). The indicator that will be used to measure this IR is ―the percentage of children 6 to 23 months who receive a minimum acceptable diet‖ (disaggregated by sex and geographic location).

2.6 INTERMEDIATE RESULT 6: IMPROVED NUTRITION-RELATED BEHAVIORS

AND INTERMEDIATE RESULT 7: IMPROVED UTILIZATION OF MATERNAL

AND CHILD HEALTH AND NUTRITION SERVICES

This will be achieved through targeted nutrition outreach and behavior change activities that target pregnant and lactating mothers and children under-five years of age. It is expected that the nutrition education and communication program developed will lead to behavior changes among both women and men that will improve nutritional status of children, particularly in the targeted age range of the first thousand days. For example, the program will be developed to promote exclusive breastfeeding for children under 6 months and appropriate complementary feeding practices from 6 to 23 months.

Behavior change messages and appropriate job aids will also be developed to inform and support health workers, agriculture extension workers and other key audience groups regarding the importance of consuming foods rich in iron and taking iron-folate supplements during pregnancy. Sensitization efforts will focus on building constructive engagement of men in household nutrition- and care-related behaviors. Increasing access to and awareness of the importance of iron rich foods and iron-folate supplements will reduce the prevalence of maternal anemia and improve the nutritional status of reproductive age women. Improved health of the mothers will lead to better nutritional outcomes for children as well. The indicators that will be used to measure these IRs are: ―(i) the proportion of infants under six months who are exclusively breastfed; (ii) the proportion of mothers who take iron supplementation for more than 90 days during pregnancy and the post-partum period.‖

Table 5. Intermediate Results for Supportive Policies for Food Security

Supportive Policies for Food Security

IR 8: Improved enabling policy environment for both agriculture and…