RFP Attachment J-1 USAID_West-Africa-and-USAID_Senegal_SRO_RDCS.pdf

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UNCLASSIFIED

December 16, 2020 - December 15, 2025

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ACRONYMS

ACLED Armed Conflict Local Event Data ADS Automated Directives System AFD Agence Française de Développement AfWA African Water Association AfDB African Development Bank AFR USAID Africa Bureau AFRICOM The United States Africa Command ARV Antiretroviral BHA Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance BMGF Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation CCRT Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy CEFM Child, Early, and Forced Marriage CH Cadre Harmonisé CILSS Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel CPS Conflict Prevention and Stabilization CSO Civil Society Organization DFC [United States] Development Finance Corporation DoD Department of Defense DRG Democracy, Human Rights and Governance ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States FFP Food for Peace FGM/C Female Genital Mutilation FIES Food Insecurity Experience Scale FMO Financial Management Office FP Family Planning FP/RH Family Planning and Reproductive Health FSN Foreign Service National FTE Full Time Equivalent FY Fiscal Year GBV Gender Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GFA Global Fragility Act GFSS Global Food Security Strategy GHSA Global Health Security Agenda GIS Geographic Information System GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation HA Humanitarian Assistance HIP High Impact Practices HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus ICT Information and communications technology IDA World Bank Group ILO International Labor Organization

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ILOSTAT International Labour Statistics IMF International Monetary Fund IR Intermediate Result J2SR Journey to Self-Reliance JRS Joint Regional Strategy for Africa LER Learning, Evaluation and Research LPC Limited Presence Country ME/CLA Monitoring and Evaluation and Collaborating, Learning and Adapting MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MEL Monitoring Evaluation and Learning MELT Monitoring Evaluation and Learning team MOU Memorandum of Understanding MRCS Monitoring, Reporting and Capacity Strengthening NPC Non-Presence Country NPI New Partnerships Initiative NSS National Security Strategy NUP New and Underutilized Partners OAA Office of Acquisition and Assistance ODA Official Development Assistance OFDA Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance OTI Office of Transition Initiatives O2P Optimizing Operational Platforms OU Operating Unit P/CVE Preventing and Countering of Violent Extremism PEPFAR President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief PMP Performance Management Plan PPT Powerpoint PSC Personal Service Contractor PSU Peace and Security Unit PYD Positive Youth Development RDCS Regional Development Cooperation Strategy RDO Regional Development Objective REC Regional Economic Communities REGO Regional Economic Growth Office RF Results Framework RH Regional Health RHO Regional Health Office RISE Resilience in the Sahel Enhanced ROP Regional Operational Plan SBC Social and Behavior Change SBU Sensitive But Unclassified SCC Sahel Collaboration and Communication SDP Sahel Development Partnership for Burkina Faso and Niger SL Sustainable Landscapes SRO USAID/Senegal/Sahel Regional Office

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SSA Sub-Saharan Africa STIP Science, Technology, Innovation and Partnerships SW South West TCN Third Country National TDY Temporary Duty Assignment TIP Trafficking in Persons TLD Tenofovir, Lamivudine, and Dolutegravir TSCTP Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership UEMOA West African Economic and Monetary Union UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities USAID United States Agency for International Development USDH U.S. Direct Hire USG United States Government USTDA U.S. Trade and Development Agency VE Violent Extremism VEO Violent Extremist Organization WA West Africa WAEP West Africa Energy Program WAHO West African Health Organization WALK West Africa Learning and Knowledge WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene WB World Bank WEEE Women's Entrepreneurship and Economic Empowerment W-GDP Women's Global Development and Prosperity WHO World Health Organization WPS Women in Peace and Security WTO World Trade Organization YALI Young African Leaders Initiative

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

FOREWORD 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

REGIONAL CONTEXT 7

STRATEGIC APPROACH 14

RESULTS FRAMEWORK NARRATIVE 17

Regional Development Objective 1: Democracy, Peace and Stability Enhanced 20

Regional Development Objective 2: Inclusive Broad-Based Economic Growth Advanced 24

Regional Development Objective 3: Governments, Institutions and Partners Catalyzed to Strengthen Health Systems 29

Regional Development Objective 4: Vulnerability of Targeted Populations Reduced 34

MONITORING AND EVALUATION AND COLLABORATING, LEARNING AND ADAPTING (ME/CLA) 39

ANNEX A: REGIONAL OPERATIONS AND STRUCTURE 43

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FOREWORD

December 16, 2020

The USAID West Africa Regional Mission and USAID/Senegal and its Sahel Regional Office are pleased to share our joint Regional Development Cooperation Strategy (RDCS) for fiscal years 2020 through 2025. The RDCS complements bilateral USAID Country Development Cooperation Strategies and U.S.

Embassy Integrated Country Strategies for the 21-country sub-region. As USAID regional platforms, we play a critical role in supporting USAID bilateral operating units and U.S. Embassies by providing programmatic and support services as part of the collective U.S. government (USG) effort to advance self-reliance in the sub-region.

Our approach to programmatic services considers that West Africa’s diverse nations are connected by shared development opportunities and challenges, many of which are transboundary in nature or best approached collectively. For example, violent extremist groups operate across borders, and limiting their reach and influence requires a regional approach. Ecologically significant areas are often shared, and climate change affects the entire region. Increasing intra-regional trade and improving food security are, by their very nature, regional challenges. Improving access to quality health services and better controlling epidemics is more effective with regional cooperation and information sharing. Cooperation on such shared issues is seen vital to self-reliance by West African nations, who believe that they are stronger together. West Africa’s empowered and active regional institutions provide logical partners to advance collective action on such shared issues. As we deliver our programmatic services at the local, national and regional levels, we will engage with these institutions to leverage the benefits of that collective action to complement the much larger USG bilateral programming in West Africa.

The second, equally important component of our Platforms’ mandate is to deliver support services and oversight to USAID programming in 16 countries where there is no full-service USAID mission. Here, we share responsibility for providing procurement, financial, administrative management, and legal services, while overseeing bilateral programs in countries with limited or no USAID presence. Our Platforms also serve as USAID training centers and convene several communities of practice around development issues.

Our joint RDCS seeks to meet the 21st century challenges that West Africa faces by delivering programmatic and support services across the sub-region to our bilateral USAID and USG clients. It is our goal that through strong collaboration with these clients, and in working by, with, and through our regional, national and local West African partners, that we increase inclusive social and economic development in a more resilient, democratic, integrated West Africa.

We look forward to collaborating with you.

Daniel Moore Peter Trenchard

USAID/West Africa Mission Director USAID/Senegal Mission Director

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

West Africa’s vast human and natural resources, and its trade and investment opportunities, hold the potential to yield inclusive economic growth for its nations and people. USAID’s West Africa allied Regional Platforms’ (USAID/West Africa [WA] and USAID/Senegal and its Sahel Regional Office [SRO]) goal for this joint 2020-2025 Regional Development Cooperation Strategy (RDCS) is: Inclusive social and economic development increased in a more resilient, democratic, integrated West Africa. The development hypothesis posits that if the four regional development objectives (RDOs) are achieved, then achievement of the goal will be advanced within the context of the assumptions and risks inherent in the social, political, economic, and physical environment of the region and its countries.

The programmatic choices for the two Regional Platforms under the RDCS are framed by the fundamental principles that: (1) transboundary and multi-country engagements offer greater programmatic effectiveness and operational efficiencies in addressing some development challenges; (2) a targeted youth approach and a focus on gender equality through regional commitment, capacity, and policy harmonization provide strategic levers to advance a country’s development objectives; and (3) the strong consensus for economic and political integration among West African nations offers strategic entry points to leverage and amplify U.S. government (USG) bilateral investments. When working in concert with USAID bilateral Operating Units (OUs) and other USG agencies, smart investments by regional platforms can play a catalytic role in accelerating countries’ individual and collective journeys toward self-reliance.

Regional Development Objective 1 (RDO 1): Democracy, Peace, and Stability Enhanced will support and strengthen regional and national capacity and commitment to open, accountable, inclusive, and democratic governance through strengthening participatory, representative, and inclusive political processes and government institutions; promote greater accountability of institutional leaders to citizens and to the law; and support partner countries’ pathways toward stability and peace. RDO 1 will also address the risks of instability from violent conflict, and prioritize targeted conflict and violence prevention, peacebuilding, and preventing and countering of violent extremism (P/CVE) interventions across the sub-region. At the bilateral level, priority programs will be implemented with governments that demonstrate commitment to power sharing and resource redistribution, both of which are crucial for reducing exclusion, violence, and conflict.

RDO 2: Inclusive Broad-based Economic Growth Advanced: West African countries cannot advance development in a vacuum. RDO 2 focuses on achieving inclusive development results by establishing and enacting regional and transboundary policies and best practices at the multilateral level. RDO 2 aims to help partner countries by working with regional economic and development institutions such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), African Water Association, the G5 Sahel, and other transnational organizations in order to deepen regional integration. Building the necessary capacity and commitment will help increase trade, diversify production, and achieve sustainable resource management, increased access to water supply and sanitation services, electricity, resilience, and food security.

RDO 3: Governments, Institutions and Partners Catalyzed to Strengthen Health Systems: This objective emphasizes the catalytic approach of the Regional Platforms, given their limited resources, towards strengthening health systems in the sub-region. It aligns with the orientation of the RDCS toward local and sub-regional institutions on the path to development, recognizing the importance of collaborating with client OUs, national government institutions, civil society organizations (CSOs), women and youth networks, regional bodies, the private sector, and other donor partners. Strengthening national health systems with relatively small, catalytic investments in USAID Limited and Non-Presence Countries (L/NPCs), and, at the regional level, working with the ECOWAS West African Health Organization (WAHO), the platforms will contribute to countries’ paths towards self-reliance by mobilizing commitment, enhancing accountability, supporting capacity building, and accelerating actions by local leaders, healthcare providers, consumers (particularly women and youth), and donor partners.

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RDO 4: Vulnerability of Targeted Populations Reduced: RDO 4 focuses on the most vulnerable population largely composed of poor rural households in an expansive geographic area covering Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and The Gambia, where approximately 49 percent of the population are female and 69 percent are under the age of 25. This targeted population is especially vulnerable to environmental, social, political, and security stresses and risks due to extreme and dynamic contexts and its underlying lack of economic opportunities, chronic poverty, poor health and educational systems, long-running ethnic and political tensions, endemic corruption, and poor governance. These vulnerabilities often lead to humanitarian crises, economic disruption, susceptibility of youth recruitment to violent extremist organizations, and worsening gender inequities.

RESULTS FRAMEWORK

REGIONAL CONTEXT

The RDCS was developed jointly by the allied Regional Platforms (USAID/WA and USAID/Senegal/SRO).

Both platforms deliver programs and support services in the West Africa sub-region and coordinate with each other and with bilateral actors in advancing the RDCS goal and advancing regional and country self-reliance. In implementing the RDCS, the two platforms will deliver transboundary and multi-country programs in: health; democracy and governance; economic growth and trade; agriculture; humanitarian assistance; and environment, while integrating gender equality, youth and resilience as cross-cutting themes.

Together the two platforms deliver services to 21 client countries in the West Africa sub-region that includes seven bilateral USAID missions, five LPCs and nine NPCs. USAID/WA focuses its results achievement on RDOs 1, 2, and 3 across the entire sub-region, while USAID/Senegal/SRO focuses on RDO 4 in the Sahel.

The ability of the two Regional Platforms to work regionally to achieve RDCS results, while supporting multiple country-specific priorities, is key to successful programming. The focused regional lens of the two platforms supports a cohesive approach to countries that are contiguous and share economic, cultural, and social dynamics and risks resulting from elections-based violence, herder-pastoralist conflicts, gender inequality, climate and pandemic shocks, youth discontent, violent insurgencies, and many other factors.

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Social and Economic Overview

The 21 countries in West Africa are diverse in terms of resource endowments, income level, state of social and economic development, fragility and conflict. Five1 of the eight oil exporting countries in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) are in the sub-region. Seven countries belong to the “other resource-intensive”2 category, and the remaining nine are “non-resource intensive.”

In terms of income level,3 11 countries are considered low-income, eight are lower-middle income, and two are upper-middle income. Ten countries are considered fragile.4 Based on the FY 2021 Country Roadmap5 dataset, just five of the 21 countries scored at or slightly above the median in the overall commitment dimension of self-reliance. However, in terms of overall capacity performance, the countries are more dispersed, with Gabon, Ghana, and Senegal as leading candidates to join the high-commitment, high-capacity group of countries.

Over the past decade (2009-2018), the average per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.4 percent for the 21 economies outpaced the SSA average of 0.9 percent. However, the growth was significantly lower than the 2.4-2.5 percent of the previous decade (1999-2008). In contrast, as a sub-group, the ECOWAS6 member states registered a sustained increase in per capita growth trajectory from

1.5 to 2.0 percent over the past two decades,7 climbing to 2.3 percent in 2019, in comparison to a sub-region average of 1.5 percent. However, due in large part to the global COVID-19 pandemic, the outlook for 2020-21 is not encouraging. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth to contract by 3.0 percent for SSA8 and the outlook for recovery in 2021 is subject to great uncertainty.

The sub-region exhibits a significant youth bulge. For example, Niger has the world’s youngest population (and the highest birth rate) with a median age of 15.2, and Mali and Chad have median ages of 16.3 and 16.6, respectively. High rates of youth unemployment characterize both the formal and informal sectors.

Youth face significant entry barriers to the job market resulting in marginalization, underemployment, and discontent. The right policies can shift the youth bulge to a demographic dividend.9

In West Africa, gaps in gender equality between women and men persist. Across nearly all indicators, including education, income, and health, outcomes for women are less positive than those for men.

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C), intimate partner violence, and child marriage continued to be prevalent in the region.10 West Africa is also the global epicenter for child marriage. For example, 76 percent of girls in Niger, 67 percent in Chad, and 52 percent in Mali are married before the girls’18th birthday, diminishing their educational, economic, and civic potential. Women and youth are facing increased vulnerability to trafficking given the fragile security and increasing migration trends in the Sahel and West Africa. Young women are migrating internally to capitalize on cross-border trade and boys are

1 Oil exporting countries are economies where net oil exports make up 30% or more of its total exports. The five countries are Cameroon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Nigeria. Source: IMF SSA Regional Economic Outlook, Oct. 2019. Senegal is reportedly launching petroleum production and exports during the RDCS period.

2 Other resource intensive countries pertain to those economies where non-renewable natural resources represent 25% or more of total exports. Source: ibid.

3 Low-income countries are economies with per capita Gross National Income (GNI) in 2016-18 of less than $1,025 (Atlas Method). These include Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, and Togo. Middle income countries are those with per capita GNI between $1,025 and $12,475. The two upper-middle income countries are Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.

4 Countries in fragile situations are economies which had WB’s average country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) scores of 3.2 or less in 2016-18 and/or had peacekeeping/peace-building missions active within the last three years. Source: IMF SSA Regional Economic Outlook, Oct. 2019.

5 The FY2021 J2SR Roadmap was released in Oct. 2020. Detailed discussions of relevant J2SR sub-dimensions can be found in the Annex: West Africa’s J2SR Roadmap and COVID-19 Pandemic Shock Analysis.

6 ECOWAS member countries include Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

7 USAID/West Africa, March 2020: Regional Economic Review 8 IMF Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020.

9 Lin, Justin Yifu. 2012. “Youth Bulge: A Demographic Dividend or a Demographic Bomb in Developing Countries?” https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographic-dividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries 10 USAID/West Africa, 2020: USAID West Africa Gender Analysis: Final Report, https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographic-dividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographic-dividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries

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vulnerable to child labor. All 21 countries in the sub-region fall into Tier 2 of the Trafficking in Persons report, with half on the Tier 2 Watch List.

Across the sub-region, men own and control more land than women, and men on average make twice the income of women. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) index indicates that the region has a high level of gender discrimination, with an average score of 44.7 percent.11 West African states’ score on gender discrimination range between a low score of 32.4 percent for Burkina Faso to a high score of 56.7 percent for Guinea. A deeper analysis of the Global Gender Gap Index (GGGI) scores for West African countries12 indicates that progress towards parity in educational attainment and in health and survival during the period of 2006-2018, mask the lower average scores in economic opportunity and political empowerment.

A 2020 USAID-supported gender assessment of the Trade Facilitation West Africa (TFWA) Program found that women along West Africa’s trading corridors suffer more than men from lack of access to productive resources such as capital and land. Because of the small and often unregulated nature of the businesses conducted by women traders, they often do not benefit from changes in regulations or improvements in trade frameworks. Trade policies, ranging from those of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to the regional organizations and down to the national level, generally do not include gender considerations13 even though women are highly impacted as economic agents.

A review of USAID’s Resilience in the Sahel Enhanced (RISE) initiative’s gender achievements and challenges in Niger and Burkina Faso concluded that deep-rooted historical and perpetuating inequalities between men and women, due to institutional norms and structures, make it quite “impossible to build resilience in households and communities without also addressing systemic gender inequality.” Burkina Faso and Niger are both characterized by deep-rooted gender inequalities and inequities in social, economic, political, and civic rights.14

Violent extremism and other forms of conflict15 remain persistent threats in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, and threaten to spread to the coastal states.16 Growing youth discontent and high levels of marginalization and unemployment increase youth susceptibility to violent extremism. Youth are often excluded from decision-making processes, both in informal and formal settings, resulting in frustration and disillusionment and contributing towards their participation in more illicit activities. Violent extremism and conflicts continue to destabilize countries, destroy communities, impede productivity growth, exacerbate the effects of weak governance, and increase the likelihood of humanitarian assistance needs.17 Ongoing vicious conflict cycles exacerbate

11 The OECD Development Centre’s Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) is a cross-country measure of discrimination against women in social institutions (formal and informal laws, social norms, and practices). 0 = no discrimination and 100 equals very high discrimination. The WEF, Global Gender Gap Index measures the gap between men and women across four fundamental categories (sub-indexes). The index value ranges between 1 (parity) and 0 (imparity). OECD. 2019. Social Institutions and Gender Gap Report.

12 World Economic Forum, 2020. Global Gender Gap Report 2020.

13 Trade Facilitation West Africa (TFWA). 2020 draft pending public release. Regional Gender Assessment Report. World Bank and GIZ. 2020 (internal USAID use draft available). Assessment co-funded by USAID.

14 USAID/Senegal, 2018: RISE Gender Analysis, 2018.

15 Traditional conflicts include those between farmers and herders that are being exacerbated by increasing drought related to climate change.

16 USAID/West Africa Littoral States VE Risk Assessment.

17 Confrontations among groups arise, regardless of national borders, frequently in West Africa, and more severe, violent, and regional-scale episodes are on the rise. Fatalities generally overlap with the five conflict systems in West Africa that straddle national borders. These are: (1) Sahel-Sahara Conflict System (Mali, Niger, Mauritania, Algeria, and most recently spreading to Burkina Faso); (2) Lake Chad Basin/Boko Haram violent https://www.oecd.org/publications/sigi-2019-global-report-bc56d212-en.htm http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2020.pdf https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TjI_LWWa_xr_YqKrWUsa5GyowS3UtYrp?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TjI_LWWa_xr_YqKrWUsa5GyowS3UtYrp?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TjI_LWWa_xr_YqKrWUsa5GyowS3UtYrp?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1TjI_LWWa_xr_YqKrWUsa5GyowS3UtYrp?usp=sharing

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poverty, drive large population segments into refugee status, destabilize weak institutions, and lead to violent relapse and increased fragility.

Table: Top Level Economic Data18

Longstanding economic vulnerability to internal and external shocks suggests that West African economies suffer from inabilities to learn from their setbacks. The pace of economic structural transformation required to deliver increases in income growth and poverty reduction is overwhelmed by regional and country-level social, political, demographic, and environmental pressures. Reliance on primary commodities and similar goods production impedes economic diversification and weakens resilience to terms of trade shocks.19

Despite allowing free mobility across the region, West African countries conduct limited trade with one another beyond traditional agricultural products such as livestock, grains, shea butter, cotton, and fruits and vegetables, mainly because they produce similar primary commodities. Border closings driven by trade barriers, insecurity and disease factors have significantly threatened the income of economic extremism (Nigeria, Chad, Northern Cameroon and Niger); (3) Gulf of Guinea Conflict System (Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon); (4) Mano River Conflict System (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia); and (5) Senegambia Conflict System (Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea). The Lake Chad area (especially Northeastern Nigeria) is the source of the most violent episodes and humanitarian crises.

18 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

19 Terms of trade shocks pertain to lower export prices relative to import prices which translate to lower export revenue and higher import bills, e.g., the 2015 collapse of global commodity prices negatively impacted African countries dependent on primary products for exports.

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agents, including women,20 who play a key role in cross-border trade. Only three of the 21 countries21 registered above the median score on Trade Freedom indicator. The full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)22 as a platform for political willingness of member countries to open up their domestic markets will be put to test in translating political rhetoric to actions and commitment to deepen regional integration.

Analysis of the Fragile States Index23 helps to better understand conflict drivers that can threaten sustained economic growth.24 These data suggest that for the past decade (2009-2019), seven of the 21 West African countries registered worsening pressures related to state fragility. For example, security threats related to crime, terrorism, and coups were significantly high in Chad and Mali while threats due to fragmentation of state institutions along ethnic, racial or religious lines were high in Cameroon, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. Economic inequality is extremely high in Guinea-Bissau and is present in most other countries. Politically related threats such as challenges to state legitimacy and deficient and unequal provision of public services were noted in Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. Demographic and environmental pressures were significantly elevated in Cameroon, Guinea- Bissau, Mali, and Mauritania. In the five-year period 2015-2019, Cameroon, Mali, and Togo exhibited persistence as fragile states while The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, and Senegal registered improvement. Chad exhibited heightened fragility in 2019, ranking seventh globally.25 As the situation in Mali continues to deteriorate, fragility has increased in neighboring countries, particularly Burkina Faso.

Data from robust research indicate a positive relationship between economic growth and an improved business enabling environment, reinforcing the critical role for the private sector, working with the government, as economic agents to advance towards self-reliance. However, across the region, all 21countries scored low to below the median for the self-reliance Business and Investment Environment indicator. This reflects West African economies’ slow pace of structural transformation. West African economies must diversify their structure, since dependence on mostly capital-intensive, extractive (e.g., mining and energy), and other resource-intensive types of industrial growth provide limited scope for labor skills-learning and mobility. In contrast, growth in the manufacturing sub-sector holds a much greater potential for product diversification and technological innovation by enhancing labor skills, mobility, and employment. Similarly, a service sector that is dominated by transport, retail/wholesale trade, and government services may not be as responsive to skills-upgrading as in other higher-wage jobs in professional and financial services.

Securing sustainable sources of financing economic development is key to maintaining macroeconomic stability (i.e., sustained growth, low inflation). Official development assistance (ODA), consisting of predominantly grants and concessional loans, declined from its highest level of 6.5 percent of GDP in 1994 to just 3.0 percent in 2017. Given the shrinking ODA, combined with increasing exposure to non-concessional loans from China and other strategic competition, it is in the best interest of West African countries to exercise greater fiscal restraint and increase domestic revenue to create the fiscal space needed to finance their own development. According to the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis for low-income countries, eight West African countries are already in the high debt or debt distress categories, and sixteen26 registered below the median score in the Tax System Effectiveness indicator.

20 Women represent up to 70-80 percent of the total population of cross-border traders.

21 Only 12 out of 21 countries in WA have scores in FY 2021 Export Sophistication indicator.

22 AfCFTA entered into force on May 30, 2019 with the operational phase officially launched on July 7, 2019 as governed by 5 operational instruments (rules of origin, online negotiating forum, monitoring and elimination of non-trade barriers, digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory) as ratified by 30 member states and 54 of the 55 AU member countries as signatories. Full implementation of AfCFTAi is planned to begin on January 1, 2021.

23 The Fragile States Index (FSI) produced by The Fund for Peace (FFP), is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are outweighing a states’ capacity to manage those pressures. The FSI is based on the FFP’s Conflict Assessment System Tool

(CAST).

24 USAID/West Africa, March 2020: West Africa Regional Economic Review 25 Chad registered a sharp increase in conflict and population displacement in the last couple of years; Fragile State Index 2020.

26 Only 16 of the 21 WA countries have available data on the Tax System Effectiveness indicator.

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Despite these headwinds, there may be a silver lining to West Africa’s Country Roadmap indicators.27 The demographic transition, as manifest in a declining dependency ratio in 18 countries, presents an opportunity to reap the demographic dividend or growth potential due to shifts in the population’s age composition. Declining age dependency can be a boon to regional economic growth as fewer children and elderly relative to economically active adults can translate to productivity increases and less strain on fixed resources. However, reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend will require structural reforms that create conditions for job growth that absorb new labor market entrants and scale up human capital investments through job training and schooling. Increasing women and youth labor force participation rates can be the most effective way of maximizing human capital resources.

Additional Trends and Implications

A key finding of the Regional Landscape Analysis, based on an aggregation of the individual Country Roadmaps in the region, is that countries in West Africa scored low on Open and Accountable Governance, with only six of the 21 registering above the median on Liberal Democracy Index and all 21 falling below the median on the Open Government indicator. A commitment to open and accountable governance has the greatest potential to: build sustainable improvements in people’s lives; drive higher levels of human capital accumulation and economic innovation; moderate social conflict and state-based violence; and advance sustainable regional and national economic growth.

A second key finding of the Landscape Analysis is that all countries in West Africa scored low on capacity indicators. This confirms the need to strengthen institutions and systems in addressing core development needs. With respect to commitment, most countries scored low on Open and Accountable Governance, but much higher on Inclusive Development. This presents an opportunity to incorporate an accountability-focused objective.

Finally, the Landscape Analysis identified significant populations in West Africa who are especially vulnerable to environmental, social, and political shocks due to extremely dynamic contexts, underlying lack of economic opportunities, poor health and educational systems, long-running ethnic and political tensions, endemic corruption, and poor governance. These vulnerabilities result in increasing chronic poverty and inequality; exacerbating gender-based violence, high rates of child, early, and forced marriage (CEFM); increasing the likelihood of humanitarian crises; and magnifying the susceptibility of youth to recruitment by violent extremist organizations (VEOs).

Alignment with Regional Partners

West Africa boasts a strong set of regional institutions empowered by their member states. These include ECOWAS, the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), and the G5 Sahel. The USAID regional platforms will collaborate with these regional partners, and others, to support efforts in building their commitment and capacity to advance implementation of aligned priorities. Modest but strategic investments in these institutions, in coordination with USAID bilateral programs, can pay dividends at national and local levels and increase return on USAID’s large bilateral investments, across all sectors and initiatives in the sub-region. Relevant priorities by these key institutions follow, together with maps depicting the geographic mandate of each.

ECOWAS Priorities

● P/CVE/Conflict Prevention: Advance conflict prevention efforts and support member states with peaceful political transitions

● Agriculture: Scale new technologies and practices for food security and nutrition

● Trade: Implement harmonized trade regimes

● Energy: Support regional electricity markets and universal access

27 USAID/West Africa, March 2020: Regional Economic Review and WA J2SR Landscape Analysis

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● Health: Amplify evidence-based health practices; encourage adherence to international and regional health policies

● Gender: Support gender integration in formal and informal trade; implement 2019 Niamey Declaration of ECOWAS First Ladies to end child marriage and promote education and empowerment of girls

G5 Sahel Priorities

● P/CVE: Promote sustainable establishment of peace and security; expand development efforts to improve security, reduce conflict, and counter violent extremism

● Democracy Rights and Governance (DRG): Support communities and institutions to more effectively prevent conflict and strengthen social cohesion; support inclusive governance processes and the establishment of rule of law; empower young people in areas affected by conflicts and migration; and ensure effective gender equity and the socio-economic promotion of young people

● Gender: Address gender equality issues and support integration of gender approaches

Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) Priorities

● Food Security and Resilience: Promote data systems for evidence-based decision making to address gender equality, improve food security, resilience, sustainable land use, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Figure: Member States of Key Regional Organizations

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STRATEGIC APPROACH

The RDCS is founded on a unified strategic vision with a specific focus on transnational, transboundary, and multi-country issues for the two Regional Platforms. Taken together, these efforts will support country level self-reliance by providing coordinated, demand-driven programs and services to 21 client bilateral USAID missions, country offices, and U.S. Embassies. A well-targeted regional program will reinforce and support USAID and USG bilateral investments, moving the region and its countries towards greater freedom, prosperity, health, resilience, and, ultimately, self-reliance.

The results framework consists of four RDOs to which both platforms contribute. RDO 4, however, largely represents the work of USAID/Senegal/SRO in the Sahel with a focus on Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and The Gambia. USAID/WA leads RDOs 1, 2 and 3, collaborating with SRO in RDO 4 on its work in countering violent extremism and promoting democracy, human rights, good governance, health, and food security.

A Regional Approach to Self-Reliance

West Africa’s interconnected nations are stronger together; they understand that their journey to self-reliance will be best made in a collective, cooperative and coordinated fashion. How does the RDCS square the West African vision of interconnectedness with the Agency’s bilaterally-oriented self-reliance framework? The USAID Policy Framework outlines the Agency’s strategy on self-reliance as working to end our country partners’ need for foreign assistance. While this long-term goal far exceeds the lifetime of the RDCS, USAID/WA and USAID/Senegal/SRO are laser-focused on addressing transboundary political, social, and economic issues that impede multiple countries’ progress along their paths to self-reliance. Issues are addressed through two strategic axes:

● Regional integration through policy coordination and accountability

● Institutional capacity building

These two axes can be framed through the self-reliance foundations of commitment and capacity, i.e., (1) a commitment to effective, inclusive, and accountable solutions to sustainable economic growth, inclusive development, and democratic governance; and (2) building human and institutional capacity across economies, civil societies, governments, and populations.28 Addressing regional issues within the self-reliance framework calls for regional approaches to commitment and capacity that can be conceptualized as a “regional journey to self-reliance,” where regional commitment and capacity are advanced by building the commitment and capacities of regional organizations. These two axes are in turn reflections of the capacities and commitments of these organizations’ member states - i.e., the countries themselves.

Accordingly, USAID/WA and USAID/Senegal/SRO will work to enhance the commitment and capacity of these regional partners, together with that of national and sub-national partners, to harmonize policies and coordinate approaches to address the sub-region’s many socio-economic development challenges.

As regional platforms, USAID/WA and USAID/Senegal/SRO can also support regional self-reliance by implementing regional programs through multi-country interventions or transboundary programs to address transboundary issues. USAID/WA and USAID/Senegal/SRO will use their convening power to work with regional partners and bilateral USAID OUs to support national journeys to self-reliance through regional development solutions. The mobility of people, livestock, pandemics, ideologies and conflict, goods, and technologies across national borders make individual country programming and actions more effective when supported by a regionally coordinated approach. Unique opportunities to advance self-reliance and build resilience through regional programs are harnessed by propelling sustainable economic growth and inclusive human development through private sector participation, trade liberalization, business enterprise development, access to finance, skills building, and strengthening democratic institutions and delivery of public services with accountability. Engaging youth and supporting

28 USAID, April 2019: USAID Policy Framework.

https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1870/WEB_PF_Full_Report_FINAL_10Apr2019.pdf https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1870/WEB_PF_Full_Report_FINAL_10Apr2019.pdf

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women leaders also emerged as a cross-cutting approach that will support self-reliance objectives in the region.

U.S. Foreign Policy Alignment

The RDCS Results Framework (RF) aligns with the USAID and Department of State Joint Regional Strategy for Africa (JRS) as well as the National Security Strategy (NSS). The RF includes three cross-cutting themes: women, youth and resilience. Gender equality interventions are explicitly addressed throughout the RDCS, with a targeted focus on women commensurate with regional need, and USG initiatives that have a specific focus on women - including the Women’s Entrepreneurship and Economic

Empowerment Act, the Women, Peace and Security Act, and the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative (W-GDP). The RDCS cross-cutting theme of youth development links to both the JRS and NSS in addressing these foreign policy priorities. The RDCS integrates and supports a range of other USG Executive and Legislative mandates including but not limited to: Prosper Africa; Better Health for Development; Countering Violent Extremism; the Global Fragility Act (GFA); the Global Food Security Strategy, Combating Trafficking in Persons; and a focus on the Sahel.

Building Financial Self-Reliance

The regional context frames and constrains RDCS strategic choices through the following factors: weak resilience to increasing shocks and multiplying stressors, inadequate governance systems, expanding political conflict and violent extremism, a growing youth bulge and ongoing demographic transition, high rates of child marriage and harmful practices, increasingly vulnerable health and education systems, growing complex humanitarian emergencies related to internal displacement of people and migration, lack of diversity in economic production and trade, limited sources of investment finance, and a poor enabling environment for private sector engagement. Assets include empowered regional networks and institutions with a strong multilateral consensus and mandate for economic and political integration.

The COVID-1929 pandemic poses additional significant shocks that threaten West Africa’s fragile economic and social development due to: direct threats of the disease on health; disrupting education and other social sector institutions; pandemic-related economic downturns causing macroeconomic distress such as trade and investment slowdowns; increasing debt distress, job losses, and risks to income security of vulnerable workers, especially women and youth engaged in the informal sector; lack of adequate social protection programs; and increased Gender Based Violence (GBV) due to rising economic stress and lockdown restrictions. The pandemic also creates opportunities for authoritarian regimes to impose restrictions on freedom of assembly and speech, close political space; and for Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) to gain followers and territory.

Engaging the Private Sector

Private sector engagement robustly fosters enterprise-driven development by promoting sustainable, market-based solutions to development challenges. RDCS implementation will strengthen the ability of credible private sector partners to implement sound economic governance in mobilizing public and private resources to finance regional development, while ensuring safeguards are in place for those resources to be spent in a transparent, accountable, and effective manner. The RDCS centers as well on accountability, transparency, and good governance by national governments, regional institutions, civil society, and the private sector.

New Directions

There are distinct pivots in the RDCS that build upon gains from the previous strategy. These include: (1) a stronger focus on gender equality and with a target on women, youth and other vulnerable populations, 29 Refer to West Africa J2SR Roadmap Analysis Annex for more detailed COVID-J2SR related analysis.

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and resilience building; (2) a more comprehensive and integrated approach to building resilience, deepening trade, addressing peace and governance challenges, conflict prevention, and countering violent extremism; and (3) redefining the relationship with regional organizations showing increasing commitment to inclusive growth and transparency that can leverage their mandate to advance self-reliance.

Strategic Donor Partners

The U.S. is the largest bilateral donor and second largest donor overall after the IDA (World Bank Group in the sub-region). France, United Kingdom (UK), and Germany are the other top bilateral donors. The largest multilateral donor is the IDA followed by the European Union (EU), the Global Fund, and regional development banks, including the African Development Bank (AfDB). The USG focuses on social and economic sectors, and peace and security with Nigeria, Ghana, and Senegal as the largest beneficiaries.

There are several interagency collaboration opportunities that USAID/WA and SRO can seek to capitalize upon to inform the regional youth agenda. For example, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) is considering different options to institutionalize youth issues into its strategic planning and engagements as part of promoting human security and to better understand the operational environment. AFRICOM's recently launched Youth Advisory Council is one avenue for strategic engagement. The AFRICOM Campaign Plan30 is an important partnership element, especially for USAID/Senegal/SRO. The IDA and AfDB are largely invested in infrastructure. The EU focuses on the economy (job creation, trade) and social sectors (health, education) and peace and security in the Sahel.

Donor coordination takes place at both regional and bilateral levels with varying degrees of effectiveness.

ECOWAS is responsible for overall donor coordination regionally, but the function is delegated to regional organizations for various sub-sectors. The G5 Sahel plays a donor coordination role in the Sahel. At the regional level, USAID plays a leading role in donor coordination in food security, energy and health, and a strong supporting role in peace and security. At the country level, USAID, EU, the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank (WB) are the main donor coordinators depending on sector and country.

Malign Actions and Global Power Competition

China has made $28 billion in loans to West African governments since 2000, averaging over $1.5 billion annually in new loans over the five-year period 2015-2020. Top recipient countries were Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. Chinese loans to West Africa fund infrastructure, mostly transportation (roads, railways, ports) and electric power projects. The IMF has warned about rising debt to China in countries that already have heavy debt loads including Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Ghana, Mauritania, and Togo. Chinese Foreign Direct Investment has averaged at or just below $1 billion per year in West Africa since 2012.

A key challenge related to Chinese influence is that weak governance and corruption can put countries at risk of resource overexploitation or asymmetric arrangements that can jeopardize self-reliance. It is useful to note that China is less present in West Africa in comparison with the rest of the continent.31 China has been restructuring its interventions in a more conventional way around strategies/programs such as its “Belt and Road” Initiative, based on needs or plans of beneficiary countries, with some positive results.32 There may be an opportunity for donor coordination that includes China, although until a few years ago, China viewed itself as part of the developing world rather than a donor.33 There is an opportunity to elevate USG-funded youth alumni networks (e.g., Young African Leaders Initiative [YALI]) while

30 https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/639919/africom-campaign-plan-targets-terror-groups/ 31 Deloitte Africa, 2019: If you want to Prosper, Consider Building Roads -…