OCC_RFI_Macro_Model_and_Data_2031JW26N00003.pdf

OCC RFI – Macroeconomic Data and Model Software

2031JW26N00003

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI)

Global Macroeconomic Model Software and Macroeconomic Historical and Forecast Data, and Written Analysis

1. INTRODUCTION

This Request for Information (RFI) is issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), an independent bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, for market research purposes in accordance with Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) Part 10. The OCC seeks to gather information from qualified firms capable of providing products and services described in the two Statements of Work (SOWs) below.

This RFI is intended to help the Government identify capable sources, gauge market interest, and refine acquisition planning for potential future requirements. The Government encourages respondents to provide rough-order-of-magnitude pricing or other relevant cost data. Any pricing data submitted will be used solely to inform the development of an Independent Government Cost Estimate (IGCE) and to refine the Government’s understanding of available solutions. Responses to this RFI are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a quote or offer. The Government will not pay for responses to this RFI, and submissions will not be returned.

Interested parties are invited to review the attached draft Statements of Work and provide capability statements, pricing estimates, feedback, and comments as described in Section 4.

2. STATEMENT OF WORK #1 – GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC MODEL SOFTWARE

STATEMENT OF WORK

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC MODEL SOFTWARE

BACKGROUND

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) charters, regulates, and supervises national banks and federal savings associations as well as issues licenses and supervises the federal branches and agencies of foreign banks. The OCC’s mission is to ensure these institutions operate in a safe and sound manner, provide fair access to financial services, treat customers fairly, and comply with applicable laws and regulations. The OCC is an independent bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. A specific requirement for the OCC is the implementation of stress tests under the Dodd-Frank Act, including the development of scenarios for those stress tests.

SCOPE

The OCC’s International Banking division of the Chief National Bank Examiner (CNBE) Department requires the Contractor to provide eight (8) transferrable user licenses as follows:

1. Global macro-econometric model software. The software must permit CNBE staff to simulate global economic and financial market shocks by country and macroeconomic sector, as well as across countries.

2. Reports including a narrative discussion of baseline projection and stress scenarios, economic and financial market drivers of the scenarios, and variable results from the Contractor’s global economic and country-specific idiosyncratic stress scenarios that can be replicated and modified by CNBE staff.

3. Access to and ability to download, store and archive global and country-specific data.

The model software must have the capability for CNBE users to input and execute idiosyncratic global and country-specific economic and financial system scenario stress tests.

The model software must have the capability to conduct sensitivity analysis of transmission channels of financial and real sector risks to the U.S. The global model must provide ready access to results from the estimation of Contractor-provided scenarios and idiosyncratic scenarios input by CNBE users. The model’s equations and linkages across country and sector must be clear and accessible, so that transmission channels can be ascertained.

TRAINING & TECHNICAL SUPPORT

Training:

The Contractor must provide training to help CNBE users simulate and retrieve scenario forecasts as well as discuss underlying economic drivers, variable paths, and model assumptions.

The Contractor must respond to training requests within at least two business days. Training of new users may be required up to four times per year. Travel to the OCC is not necessary and the medium of training will be mutually agreeable.

Technical Support:

The Contractor must provide technical support and analytical expertise in the areas covered by the model software. The Contractor’s technical support must include telephone or electronic access to the Contractor’s user helpdesk, access to the Contractor’s staff analysts to ask questions or obtain clarifications via e-mail or phone on how to use the Contractor’s model and/or analytic tools. The Contractor must respond to requests and/or inquiries within at least two business days.

The Contractor must agree to provide two meetings per year with its Chief Economist or agreed-upon replacement (either in-person, by phone, or virtual) to discuss the contractor’s global economic and country-specific idiosyncratic stress scenarios, at no additional cost to the OCC.

PRODUCTS

1. Global macroeconomic and financial market model software: The model software must be in production (can be used immediately). The Contractor must provide simultaneous access to the model software for eight (8) users, installed on their personal computers, without regard to the physical location of the employees. The OCC reserves the right to change who the eight users are at any time, and as often as necessary. The OCC will have full rights to share on an ad hoc basis individual reports and country data within the OCC and to use results from its estimations in OCC publications, with appropriate citation of the model. The countries modeled must include, at a minimum, all G-20 countries. Models for additional emerging market countries will be looked favorably upon. Macroeconomic and financial market indicators forecasted in the model must cover the following macroeconomic sectors:

1) Standard national income accounts (GDP)

2) Trade and the balance of payments

3) Fiscal accounts, including measures for debt sustainability

4) Monetary indicators, including interest and inflation rates

5) Equity prices, bond and real estate markets

6) Corporate finances and business investment

7) Wages, labor market, productivity and competitiveness measures

8) Banking sector, including capital, total assets, loans to private sectors, and asset quality, such as non-performing loans

The Contractor must be able to modify the model (e.g., the econometric equations underlying the forecasts) as changes to the global economy and country-specific policies and economic circumstances dictate (e.g., a change to a country’s exchange rate regime). To assess transmission channels, the model documentation must show how each forecasted macroeconomic and financial market indicator is modeled, and show the linkages between all the indicators, both within and across countries. This documentation must be readily available and historical data for all forecasted series in the model must be available for download by users (e.g., through Microsoft Excel).

Documentation of the Contractor’s validation of its model must also be available for review.

Contractor must explicitly identify any third-party data or data elements subject to other license agreements.

Data and forecasts must have the following characteristics:

1) Consistency: Data must be compiled and forecasts must be applied using consistent methods, across countries.

2) Frequency: The model must make at least quarterly projections for countries, using data at a quarterly or higher frequency.

3) Forecast horizon: At least 4 years.

4) Frequent updates: Historical data and baseline projections must be updated at least monthly capturing changes in high frequency data and revisions to quarterly national accounts data.

CNBE employees must be authorized to systematically extract, store, and use the historical and forecast data to conduct research and analysis that could be publicly disseminated in various forms, including but not limited to research papers, policy papers, and analytical presentations or memoranda.

2. Publication of periodic scenarios: The Contractor must provide periodic (monthly or quarterly) scenarios and model results, developed by their staff, which reflect emerging global risks (not solely U.S.-focused). Such risks would result in recessions in any G-20 economy, a decline in world GDP greater than 0.5 percent, or broad-based commodity, asset price or other economic shock. These scenarios must include a narrative, explaining the economic drivers and assumptions made in the scenario, including a list of the variables shocked by country.

3. Analytical reports: The Contractor must provide regularly published reports that offer further insight on the economic drivers underlying the Contractor’s assumptions for both its baseline projections and its periodic scenarios. These reports might include, amongst other things, the Contractor’s analysis of implications from global economic and financial market developments on their baseline projections and periodic scenarios. The reports should feature the different countries and regions included in the global macroeconomic model and should be published very frequently (every business day).

3. STATEMENT OF WORK #2 – MACROECONOMIC HISTORICAL AND FORECAST DATA, AND

WRITTEN ANALYSIS

STATEMENT OF WORK

MACROECONOMIC HISTORICAL AND FORECAST DATA, AND WRITTEN ANALYSIS

1.0. BACKGROUND

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) charters, regulates, and supervises national banks and federal savings associations as well as issues licenses and supervises the federal branches and agencies of foreign banks. The OCC’s mission is to ensure these institutions operate in a safe and sound manner, provide fair access to financial services, treat customers fairly, and comply with applicable laws and regulations. The OCC is an independent bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The OCC requires a responsible Contractor to provide products to facilitate economic, financial, and demographic analysis of the U.S. economy. These products must provide ready access to historical and forecast data, and written analysis of the U.S. economy, including regional detail by state and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The minimum number of MSAs required to be covered by historical and forecast data is the largest 300 MSAs by current population; more than 300 is preferred but not required. The Contractor must have proven analytical expertise in the areas covered by the products. The Contractor must provide technical support to help users retrieve and understand the data and forecasts provided.

2.0. SCOPE

1. Historical Data

a. The Contractor must provide a database that consists of economic, financial, and demographic historical data of the U.S. economy at the national, state, and MSA level. The Contractor must provide both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted historical data, where provided by the data source.

b. The historical database must include at least 500 economic, financial, or demographic data series at each of the three geographic levels (national, state, and MSA). Data series that are released by the data source at all three geographical levels should be counted as three data series, one per level. Do not count a data series more than once because it is reported for multiple geographic locations at the same geographic level. A larger number of historical data series at each geographic level is preferred but not required.

c. The historical database must include data series at the national, state, and MSA levels that contain the full history of data provided by the source of the data.

d. Newly released historical data will be incorporated into the Contractor’s database within two business days upon release by the source of the data. Inclusion of newly released historical data into the historical database faster than two business days is preferred but not required.

e. The Contractor will incorporated data revisions released by the source of the data into its database within two business days from the released of the revision. Faster inclusion is preferred.

2. Forecasts

a. The Contractor must use its validated macroeconomic model(s) to forecast at least quarterly economic and financial data at the national, state, and MSA levels over at least a five-year time horizon.

b. The Contractor must update its forecast data each quarter at a minimum. The forecasts must include at minimum a baseline and at least 5 alternative scenarios, where the 5 alternative scenarios include a mix of both upside and downside risk scenarios. A larger number of forecast scenarios is preferred but not required.

c. The Contractor must forecast at least 500 (at the national level), 350 (at the state level), and 150 (at the MSA level) economic or financial data series. Data series that are forecast at all three geographical levels should be counted as three data series, one per level. Do not count a forecast data series more than once because it is reported for multiple geographic locations at the same geographic level. A larger number of data series forecast at each geographic level is preferred but not required.

d. Forecasts must have the following characteristics:

i. Consistency: Data must be compiled and forecasts must be applied using consistent methods for MSAs, states, and national economic or financial series to permit sound analysis.

The Contractor’s forecast model(s) at the state and MSA level must be consistent with national level forecasts, and vice versa. Consistent methods must be used for data with different periodicities, such as monthly or quarterly.

ii. Comprehensive coverage: Since national banks operate in both large and small metropolitan areas, forecasts must include coverage of at least the minimum number of MSAs noted above in the United States to help identify and analyze local economic factors that affect the condition and performance of national banks. Coverage must be continuous across time, without breaks in the forecast data.

3. Written Analysis Reports

a. National Level Trends and Data Release Reports. The Contractor must provide written analysis and commentary of key economic and financial trends in the economy and of emerging risks to growth, plus commentary on key economic and financial data releases at the national level, on an at least a weekly basis.

b. State and Local Reports. The Contractor must also provide written analyses and commentary of key economic and financial trends for each state and covered MSA at least three times a year.

4. Data Access, Delivery, Usage, and Termination

a. Data Access. OCC employees assigned a license shall have access to the products purchased through this contract. The historical and forecast data, and written analyses must be accessible by OCC license holders through the Contractor’s website. Licenses are transferrable among OCC employees throughout the duration of the contract at no additional cost.

b. Data Export via Website. The Contractor must allow OCC license holders to download/export historical and forecast data from the Contractor’s website to the OCC's network. Historical and forecast data must be accessible by the OCC at all times during the performance of this contract. Historical and forecast data must be accessed for download/export from an easy-to-use, single web-page location where the user is able to select geography level (national, state, or MSA), time period, date range, etc., of data to download/export. Although not required, it is preferred that the Contractor’s website export tool allow users to easily transform data (e.g., change periodicity between annual, quarterly, or monthly; convert from levels to difference or percent change) prior to download. It is also preferred, but not required, that the download/export website location include functionality to generate charts and maps (e.g., data visualizations) of the selected data.

c. Data Usage.

i. OCC employees with a license shall be authorized to distribute the results of analysis or research (not raw data) using the contractor’s historical and forecast data to all other employees of the OCC regardless of location.

ii. OCC employees with a license shall be authorized to publicly disseminate results of research or analysis (in summary form only) using the contractor’s historical and forecast data.

Public dissemination can take a variety of forms, such as published research papers, analytic outreach presentations to bankers, or interagency memoranda. The OCC shall cite the contractor as the source of the historical and forecast data in all publicly disseminated written products.

iii. OCC employees with a license shall be authorized to co-author research papers using the contractor’s historical and forecast data with persons not employed by the OCC and may not have a license to the Contractor’s historical or forecast data. Non-OCC co-authors will have access only to aggregated data and results of research and analysis.

d. Data Treatment at Termination of Contract. After termination of the contract, at the minimum, the OCC requires data rights to allow OCC license holders to archive data for regulatory and statutory record-keeping purposes. Additional data rights at end of contract are preferred.

e. State and MSA Economic Reports Posted to OCC’s Secured, Internal Website. The Contractor must authorize the OCC to download from the Contractor all of its state and MSA economic reports, described in section 4.b above, and post those reports on the OCC’s secured, internal website. The purpose of posting state and MSA economic reports is to allow all OCC employees the ability to read these reports at any time to assist OCC employees in carrying out their official duties.

5. Customer Service

a. Technical support must include telephone or electronic access to a user helpdesk, access to the Contractor’s staff of analysts and/or economists to ask questions or obtain clarifications.

The Contractor must respond to requests and/or inquiries within two business days of requests and/or inquiries by the Government.

b. The Contractor must agree to meet once a year (whether in person, over the phone, or virtual) to discuss the current economic environment and emerging trends or risks. This meeting must not be separately priced.

c. Contractor must provide training opportunities at least twice a year to license holders on how to use the Contractor’s website and/or other analytic tools. This training must not be separately priced.

4. RESPONSE INSTRUCTIONS

Interested vendors are encouraged to provide capability statements, pricing estimates, technical information, product literature, or other relevant materials that describe their ability to meet one or both Statements of Work. Responses should clearly identify which SOW(s) the vendor is addressing and include:

- Company name, address, and point of contact information.

- Description of relevant experience or past performance.

- Description of commercial availability (e.g., through GSA MAS, SEWP, or other contracts).

- Typical licensing and pricing structures.

- PRICING ESTIMATES, including, as applicable: (1) individual pricing for each SOW separately and (2) total combined pricing for any solution covering both SOWs. Please provide details sufficient to assist the Government in developing its IGCE.

- Recommended NAICS code(s) and small business size standard.

Response Format: Microsoft Word or PDF, not to exceed 15 pages (excluding appendices).

Submission Method: Email to sean.frey@occ.treas.gov with subject line: “RFI Response – OCC Macroeconomic Modeling and Data”.

Response Deadline: NLT 5:00pm EST, Tuesday, December 2, 2025.

mailto:sean.frey@occ.treas.gov

5. DISCLAIMER

This RFI is for planning purposes only and shall not be construed as a solicitation or obligation on the part of the Government. The Government will not reimburse costs incurred in responding to this notice. The OCC reserves the right to use non-proprietary technical information in any resultant solicitation(s).

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