Attachment_1_-_SOW.docx

Attachment 1

Statement of Work

Numerical Weather Prediction Research and Development

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is the corporate research laboratory for the Navy and Marine Corps. NRL’s Marine Meteorology Division (MMD) conducts a broadly based multidisciplinary program of scientific research and advanced technological development directed toward environment information superiority for the Navy, Marine Corps and the Department of Defense (DoD).

NRL MMD’s core business includes:

· To understand and simulate the behavior of the atmosphere and its constituents on local, regional, and global scales; including its interaction with the ocean, land, cryosphere, and middle atmosphere;

· To invent, develop, implement, and transition new capabilities and systems for objective environmental analysis and prediction; and,

· To integrate new capabilities into automated systems for assessing risk and analyzing impact of atmospheric conditions on Navy and DoD operations and weapons systems and transition systems to operations.

MMD has two research Branches with different focus areas of interest. The Atmospheric Dynamics and Prediction Branch focuses on basic Science & Technology (S&T) research and applied Research & Development (R&D) related to the analysis and prediction of atmospheric processes that impact fleet operations and mission planning. Particular emphasis is placed on the investigation and quantitative description of dynamics and physics of the lower atmosphere and air-sea-land interface, on scales that range from the turbulence scale to the scale of planetary weather systems. Numerical data assimilation (DA) and prediction systems are developed to optimally estimate the three-dimensional state of the global and regional mesoscale atmosphere in real-time through assimilation of a variety of in situ and remotely sensed observations (e.g. satellite, radar); and to integrate these analyses forward in time through the use of sophisticated numerical models. These multi-scale prediction systems are transitioned for operational use in providing a broad range of environmental guidance to the fleet and are used by MMD to conduct basic research of the atmosphere. The Atmospheric Dynamics and Prediction Branch supports their operational partners by monitoring, maintaining and debugging the operational algorithms.

The Meteorological Applications Development Branch develops automated, customer tailored, on-demand weather impact information systems and transitions them to operations for use in supporting naval missions in a variety of warfare areas, most notably strike, marine and special operations. The Branch develops weather impact on-demand and on-scene data analysis, nowcast, and forecast systems; multisensory meteorological satellite data applications; atmospheric aerosol data analysis and prediction systems; meteorological decision aids; hazardous weather-related applications guides; and tactical weather information delivery techniques. Special focus is given to tropical cyclones, which affect fleet forces around the globe, and to the analysis and prediction of factors that affect electromagnetic (EM) and electro-optical (EO) propagation. The Branch integrates new scientific knowledge with the analysis and prediction systems into automated weather interpretation systems for Navy and other DoD operations, including environmental effects on transmission, ducting and naval operations. Various techniques are explored and utilized, such as data fusion, data assimilation, data mining, and other artificial intelligence methodologies, to exploit locally available, remotely sensed, on-scene, and through-the-sensor observations. The Branch also conducts field measurement programs for model verification and to provide basic and exploratory research characterizing the physics of aerosols. The Meteorological Applications Development Branch supports their operational partners by monitoring, maintaining and debugging the operational algorithms.

1.1 Background

The specific objectives of this contract are to provide NRL MMD with classified and unclassified support in modeling and simulation (M&S), environmental effects research efforts, transitions to operational customers, and maintenance in the following areas:

RDT&E Task 1: Global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Research and Development and Transition.

RDT&E Task 2: Mesoscale NWP Model Research and Development and Transition.

RDT&E Task 3: Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Analysis Research and Development and Transition.

O&M,N Task 1: Global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Maintenance.

O&M,N Task 2: Mesoscale NWP Model Maintenance.

O&M,N Task 3: Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Analysis Maintenance

O&M,N Task 4: Tactical Operational User Support Products Production, Distribution, and Maintenance.

1.2 Scope

None of the tasks in this SOW require privileged access to DoD owned, operated or contracted IS (information systems). All work in this SOW can be completed with General User accounts and access. Contractors involved with this contract will be limited to General User accounts and will not require or be given Privileged Accounts on DoD IS. Tasks carried out in the computing environments at DSRC, HPC, NRL-MRY and FNMOC are managed by the staff of those facilities with the appropriate privileged access.

This Statement of Work (SOW) covers work up to the Secret classification level and some contractors will require NATO access to perform certain tasks in the research areas enumerated above. It also allows for work in emergent research areas as specified by NRL MMD. Such work will require a Technical Directive provided by NRL MMD to the Contractor, which will effectively modify the requirements set forth herein.

Tasks in this SOW that are labeled “Classified Task” will require a final Secret security clearance and NATO access.

From time to time, as the result of the progress of the research activities, NRL MMD research tasks may be directed into new areas. The contractor may be asked to perform in these areas with efforts such as basic research, application development, documentation development, transition, and maintenance.

2 Applicable Documents

There are no applicable documents.

3 RDT&E Task Descriptions

3.1 RDT&E Task 1: Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Research and Development and Transition.

Under NRL’s technical direction, the Contractor shall perform applied research in Global NWP Model Development.

3.1.1 Global NWP Model Development.

3.1.1.1 The Contractor shall use NAVGEM or other global forecast models to conduct global NWP research and contribute to Global Model spiral development.

3.1.1.2 The Contractor shall develop a new NAVGEM or other global forecast model dynamic core.

3.1.1.3 The Contractor shall test different alternatives for horizontal and vertical interpolations in the Semi-Lagrangian (SL) advection scheme.

3.1.1.4 The Contractor shall optimize Semi-Implicit (SI) time integration for the NAVGEM or other global model.

3.1.1.5 The Contractor shall optimize diffusion and time steps for the NAVGEM or other global model.

3.1.1.6 The Contractor shall develop a T1024L90 or higher resolution Semi-Lagrangian/ Semi-Implicit (SL/SI) version of the NAVGEM or other global model.

3.1.1.7 The Contractor shall test the T1024L90 or higher resolution model with current and developmental DA schemes.

3.1.1.8 The Contractor shall modify the T1024L90 or higher resolution model to be compliant with Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) coding standards.

3.1.1.9 The Contractor shall conduct real-time tests for NAVGEM or other global models and Data Assimilation on Defense Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) hardware and local and cloud-based HPC platforms.

3.1.1.10 The Contractor shall assist in research of resolutions higher than T1024L90 SL/SI dynamical core for NAVGEM.

3.1.1.11 The Contractor shall develop the code and scripts for the NAVGEM or other global model Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The Contractor shall improve the EPS performance by increasing the resolution of the system, multiple physics packages, perturbation of physical parameters, and alternative ensemble construction and initialization methods.

3.1.1.12 The Contractor shall develop code and scripts for the NAVGEM or other global model deterministic and probabilistic forecast system to perform post-processing to improve the predictive skill of model forecasts.

3.1.2 Advanced Physics Development.

3.1.2.1 The Contractor shall test the impact of using the state-of-the-art Radiative Transfer Model for Global Climate Modeling (GCM) applications together with a multi-species prognostic treatment for water condensate in NAVGEM or other global models.

3.1.2.2 The Contractor shall implement a high-order boundary layer parameterization scheme for NAVGEM or other global models.

3.1.2.3 The Contractor shall optimize NAVGEM or other global models vertical levels for computational efficiency to enable data assimilation upgrades, and incorporation of advanced physics packages.

3.1.2.4 The Contractor shall develop diagnostic software to better analyze NAVGEM or other global models errors in terms of regional and synoptic situations, and through energy budget, vorticity budget and wave spectrum analysis.

3.1.2.5 The Contractor shall develop a coupled global model physics package and test the improved resolution & physics parameterization.

3.1.2.6 The contractor shall develop and test the impact of inclusion of aerosol information to the forecast and computational performance of the NAVGEM or other global models.

3.1.3 Seasonal Global NWP Predictions using NAVGEM or other global models.

3.1.3.1 The Contractor shall run extended NAVGEM or other global model integrations using different configurations to evaluate and understand the potential for predictability on monthly time scales for global seasonal predictions.

3.1.3.2 The Contractor shall evaluate NAVGEM or other global models at: 1) monthly time scales at the highest resolution possible, 2) resolutions considered operationally feasible, and 3) perform reforecasts with analyzed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST information available in real time.

3.1.3.3 The Contractor shall examine the metrics of specific meteorological and oceanographic (METOC) phenomenon of high interest to the Navy, such as the frequency of occurrence of high-speed near surface winds, and larger-scale teleconnection phenomenon, such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Contractor shall investigate and evaluate the representation of the MJO in NAVGEM or other global models and assess the correspondence between clouds, radiation and precipitation.

3.1.3.4 The Contractor shall investigate the mechanism controlling MJO occurrence and its amount of convection. The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in participating in field programs such as the MJO Diabatic Heating Model Intercomparison Project.

3.1.3.5 The Contractor shall conduct NAVGEM or other global model numerical experiments to simulate the MJO phenomena observed in the field experiments.

3.1.4 Upward Extension of Global Models.

3.1.4.1 Classified Task. The Contractor shall improve NAVGEM or other global model’s height, resolution, and accuracy in the upper levels of the atmosphere to support unclassified and classified National Intelligence Community (NIC) applications. The focus will be on the interactions between the lower and upper atmosphere, including the mesosphere and ionosphere, and include planetary waves, gravity waves, tropopause folds, and episodic mesoscale mixing processes, and ionospheric interactions.

3.1.4.2 The Contractor shall apply dynamics and physics packages for high-altitude implementations of the NAVGEM or other global model (such as non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium radiation parameterizations) to raise the upper boundary of NAVGEM or other global models.

3.1.4.3 The Contractor shall couple NAVGEM or other global models with high-altitude-specific atmosphere and ionosphere models and conduct real-time test runs.

3.1.5 HPC Computer Software Application R&D.

3.1.5.1 The Contractor shall develop an execution strategy to migrate global model software code between various High Performance Computing (HPC) architectures.

3.1.5.2 The Contractor shall develop flexible best practices for real-time data transfer of METOC observations, and post processing of data staging strategies to maximize the HPC compute cycle to minimize wasted cycles or storage space.

3.1.5.3 The Contractor shall provide technical support to maintain and troubleshoot the HPC capability at NRL MMD.

3.1.5.4 The Contractor shall provide technical support to maintain and troubleshoot HPC capability using commercial cloud architectures

3.1.5.5 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNET) web services for the ingestion and distribution of METOC data (including satellite and NWP model products) to DoD and NIC organizations, to transfer classified data archives between data source providers, and to monitor and repair data feeds and software systems as needed. The web services must be compatible with legacy Navy, DoD, and NIC systems.

3.1.5.6 The Contractor shall provide troubleshooting assistance for the task development in a highly complex networked environment consisting of multiple networks, computer operating systems, and equipment manufacturers.

3.1.5.7 The Contractor shall diagnose and troubleshoot problems with individual or multiple computer systems, including HPC computers, to maintain proper functioning; resolve issues of complexity, including contacting and assisting vendors. The Contractor shall install hardware/software related to the research task orders and associated HPC and networking components.

3.1.5.8 The Contractor shall comply with all NRL policies in monitoring aspects of network architecture, planning, implementation, creation of operational procedures, and security related to research task development and executions. The Contractor shall perform computer studies and projects relative to area of assignment; implement changes required by NRL policies and procedures, as required for contract task performance.

3.1.5.9 The Contractor shall research, analyze, and provide hardware and software recommendations to NRL research projects. The Contractor shall perform technical analyses of complex software, hardware and transmission facilities using various diagnostic tools in support of efficient network operations.

3.1.5.10 The Contractor shall provide troubleshooting assistance and development of Cylc or other workflow management software used in NRL research projects.

3.1.6 NEPTUNE Unified Global and Regional Model Developement.

3.1.6.1 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the development of a next-generation modeling system, NEPTUNE (Navy Environmental Prediction SysTem Utilizing the NUMA corE).

3.1.6.2 The Contractor shall use NEPTUNE or other next-generation dynamical core to conduct global and regional-scale NWP research and contribute to Global and Regional Model spiral development.

3.1.6.3 The Contractor shall advance the NEPTUNE or other next-generation dynamical core.

3.1.6.4 The Contractor shall test methods to optimize the computational performance of the NEPTUNE dynamical core.

3.1.6.5 The Contractor shall work with NRL MMD to advance new numerical methods within the NEPTUNE dynamical core.

3.1.6.6 The Contractor shall work with NRL MMD to develop new physical parameterizations tailored for the NEPTUNE spectral element dynamical core.

3.1.6.7 The Contractor shall implement the community Interoperable Physics Driver into the NEPTUNE modeling system.

3.1.6.8 The Contractor shall conduct global and regional retrospective and real-time tests for NEPTUNE or other next generation models and DA on DSRC HPC hardware and local HPC platforms.

3.1.6.9 The Contractor shall conduct regional-scale retrospective and real-time tests for NEPTUNE or other next generation models and DA on DSRC hardware and local HPC platforms.

3.1.6.10 The Contractor shall develop the code and scripts for the NEPTUNE or other next-generation model EPS. The Contractor shall improve the EPS performance by increasing the resolution of the system, multiple physics package, and stochastic physics.

3.1.6.11 Classified Task. The Contractor shall improve NEPTUNE or other next-generation unified model’s height, resolution, and accuracy in the upper levels of the atmosphere to support National Intelligence Community (NIC) applications related to communication and signal propagation. The focus will be on the interactions between the stratosphere and upper troposphere and include planetary waves, gravity waves, tropopause folds, and episodic mesoscale mixing processes.

3.1.6.12 The Contractor shall apply dynamics and physics packages appropriate for the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere to raise the effective upper boundary of NEPTUNE or other next-generation unified models.

3.1.6.13 The Contractor shall develop the code and scripts for the NEPTUNE or other next-generation unified model Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The Contractor shall improve the EPS performance by increasing the resolution of the system, multiple physics package, and perturbation of physical parameterization parameters.

3.1.7 Global Earth System Prediction Development.

3.1.7.1 The Contractor shall use the Navy Earth System Model (NESM) or other global coupled forecast model to conduct earth system prediction research and contribute to the coupled global model spiral development.

3.1.7.2 The Contractor shall develop code and scripts to enable and optimizing the coupling and running of the component (atmosphere, ocean, ice, and wave) systems in NESM or other global coupled system using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standard.

3.1.7.3 The Contractor shall develop code and scripts to enable and optimizing the coupling and running of the NESM or other global coupled system data assimilation and ensemble forecast systems.

3.1.7.4 The Contractor shall develop code and scripts for the validation and verification of the NESM or other global coupled system deterministic and ensemble systems.

3.1.7.5 The Contractor shall perform system configuration experiments to evaluate the impact of system modifications (physical parameterizations, resolution, coupling frequency) on the global coupled system performance.

3.1.7.6 The Contractor shall develop code and scripts for the production of forecast products from the global coupled system that are relevant for Navy users.

3.1.7.7 The Contractor shall develop workflows to facilitate running the coupled system with coupled or uncoupled data assimilation in deterministic or probabilistic modes.

3.1.8 Global NWP Model Transitions to Operations.

The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD to transition global NWP models and global coupled models (including, but not limited to, atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and wave components) to operations at Navy METOC production centers including the configuration management, workflow management, development of manuals and documentation, development of training material, and technical support for operations tests and evaluations.

3.1.9 Global Project Management.

The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in managing the progress and integration of global NWP projects, such as NAVGEM, ESPC, and NEPTUNE, by coordinating work accomplished by collaborating agencies into the overall NRL MMD Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RTD&E) roadmap.

3.2 RDT&E Task 2: Mesoscale NWP Model Research and Development and Transition.

Under NRL’s technical direction, the Contractor shall perform applied research in Mesoscale NWP Model Development.

3.2.1 Mesoscale NWP R&D.

3.2.1.1 The Contractor shall develop numerical analysis and prediction techniques for both current and future DoD mesoscale NWP systems. This research involves physical parameterizations, advanced numerical techniques, land-surface modeling, and ensemble prediction systems and includes work with: 1) coupled mesoscale oceanic and atmospheric models, 2) Quality control (QC) and ingest of evolving non-conventional data merged with conventional data, 3) a new paradigm of NWP forecast verification that emphasizes subjective material, feature recognition, and metrics to quantify the probability of occurrence, and 4) innovative approaches and techniques to advance the connectivity of Fleet users with NRL MMD R&D resources.

3.2.1.2 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop verification and validation metrics for the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)® or other mesoscale NWP models. These are essential to evaluate the quality of NWP model forecasts. This involves developing techniques and algorithms for fine-scale feature verification systems using satellite, radar, and local classified observational data to qualify and qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the performance of mesoscale NWP models.

3.2.1.3 The Contractor shall develop and test improved higher-moment cloud microphysics packages for the COAMPS or other mesoscale model.

3.2.1.4 The Contractor shall test and evaluate improvements to COAMPS or other mesoscale model boundary layer and surface physics.

3.2.1.5 The Contractor shall evaluate and document COAMPS or other mesoscale model Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) and evaluate improvements to cumulus parameterization and microphysics to improve QPF performance.

3.2.1.6 The Contractor shall develop the code and scripts for COAMPS or other regional model ensemble prediction system (EPS). The Contractor shall improve the regional model EPS performance by increasing the resolution of the system, multiple physics package, and perturbation of physical parameterization parameters.

3.2.1.7 Classified Task. The Contractor shall improve COAMPS or other regional model’s height, resolution, and accuracy in the upper levels of the atmosphere to support National Intelligence Community (NIC) applications related to communication and signal propagation. The focus will be on the interactions between the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the upper levels of the atmosphere, and includes planetary waves, gravity waves, tropopause folds, and mixing processes.

3.2.2 Mesoscale NWP Physics and Cloud Modeling.

3.2.2.1 The Contractor shall analyze detailed cloud spatial patterns and their theoretical structure at the edges of cloud boundaries to calculate the vertical transmittance of visible and infrared (IR) radiation in and through the clouds over selected areas of the world. Horizontal cloud distributions and vertical cloud heights are needed to determine the slant range space-to-ground transmittance of visible and infrared radiation.

3.2.2.2 The Contractor shall determine how different cloud types affect transmission in different ways by examining clouds during different seasons and geographic areas.

3.2.2.3 The Contractor shall calculate the scattering, absorption, and total cross section of cloud droplets for several droplet size distributions given the complex index of refraction of cloud droplets.

3.2.2.4 The Contractor shall analyze global and regional cloud distributions and calculate the vertical space-to-ground transmittance of visible and IR radiation. The Contractor shall research microphysical data on clouds such as the liquid water content, ice content, and the spectral attenuation coefficients needed for the analysis of clouds for use in NWP models.

3.2.2.5 The Contractor shall test and evaluate different surface and boundary layer parameterizations impacting vertical and horizontal distributions of pressure, temperature, moisture, and aerosols important in affecting propagation and transmissions as related to EM and EO.

3.2.2.6 The Contractor shall apply dynamics and physics packages appropriate for the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere to raise the effective upper boundary of COAMPS or other regional models.

3.2.2.7 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD planning, leading, and executing field experiments to collect atmospheric and oceanic observations in and around various mesoscale phenomena.

3.2.3 Mesoscale Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave-Ice-Hydrology Coupling Capability.

3.2.3.1 The Contractor shall test and evaluate the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) versus Wave Watch III (WW III) models in 3-way coupled systems, to include: 1) initialization, 2) lateral boundary condition update, and 3) optimization and efficiency.

3.2.3.2 The Contractor shall test and evaluate impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on lower atmosphere and upper ocean boundary-layer structure for long-term DA tests.

3.2.3.3 The Contractor shall extend the coupling capability to ice models such as CICE and test the system as appropriate. The Contractor shall develop coupler software necessary for Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave-Ice coupling for a 4-way coupling capability.

3.2.3.4 The Contractor shall extend the coupling capability to hydrology and test the system as appropriate. The Contractor shall develop coupler software necessary for Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave-Ice-Hydrology coupling for a 5-way coupling capability.

3.2.3.5 The Contractor shall document the statistical performance of the coupled predictions and compare the forecasts to uncoupled predictions.

3.2.4 COAMPS for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC®) Capability.

3.2.4.1 The Contractor shall merge the current and future COAMPS-TC® code with the main COAMPS code and perform benchmark tests and make new COAMPS-TC versions fully compliant with NRL and FNMOC coding standards.

3.2.4.2 The Contractor shall test new improvements to the data assimilation and vortex initialization and evaluate the impact on TCs. This will improve COAMPS-TC in both physics parameterization and in validation of its predictions.

3.2.4.3 The Contractor shall improve, test, and evaluate the COAMPS-TC Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and microphysics.

3.2.4.4 The Contractor shall produce retrospective and real-time COAMPS-TC forecasts with the latest model version; provide diagnosis and evaluation of systematic errors for the TC seasons; and evaluate air-ocean-wave coupled COAMPS-TC for retrospective cases.

3.2.4.5 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD planning, leading, and executing field experiments to collect atmospheric and oceanic observations in and around tropical cyclones.

3.2.4.6 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in writing scripts to run COAMPS-TC efficiently.

3.2.4.7 The Contractor shall develop the code and scripts for the COAMPS-TC or other tropical cyclone model Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The Contractor shall improve the tropical cyclone EPS performance by increasing the resolution of the system, multiple physics package, and perturbation of physical parameterization parameters.

3.2.5 Near Real-Time Forecasting Products to Improve the Functionality of the COAMPS–On Demand (COAMPS-OS®) System.

COAMPS-OS is a highly automated globally re-locatable, web-based, high-resolution mesoscale NWP modeling system that can be used locally in forward-deployed locations, or in a rear-area production center and made available to users via Reachback. The system features automated processing, dynamic web graphics, and web-accessible data with content that can be tailored to user needs.

3.2.5.1 The Contractor shall develop enhanced versions of COAMPS-OS incorporating improvements in data processing, modeling, ensemble forecasting and post-processing, data assimilation, scripting, visualization, user interfaces, client-server processing, data distribution, security, web, and geospatial services. The Contractor shall configuration manage and test all software releases and provide operational documentation.

3.2.5.2 Classified Task. The Contractor shall identify METOC parameters critical to Navy, DoD and NIC missions and develop algorithms to translate COAMPS-OS prognostic fields into operationally relevant parameters.

3.2.5.3 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop, test, and verify algorithms to calculate sensible weather and derived environmental parameters from model output such as those related to EM, EO, and radar QC and processing that are relevant to DoD operating forces and the NIC to provide real-time actionable weather information directly to the warfighters.

3.2.5.4 The Contractor shall test existing NWP model code and incorporate new sensor characteristics to ensure model code and sensor characteristics are compatible. Examples include incompatible units, definitions of functions, and normalization factors.

3.2.5.5 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop classified and unclassified COAMPS-OS enhancement capabilities for forward deployed operators. The Contractor shall implement COAMPS-OS model algorithms and formatting output from the algorithms to be ingested into DoD tactical decision aids (TDA). This includes automated processing of on-scene data, including at-sea weather radar data and observations collected from denied areas. The Contractor shall enhance forward deployed NWP models to allow operators to configure and run a high resolution, organic NWP model tailored to tactical warfighting support requirements. The Contractor shall upgrade the system based on user interactions and feedback via hosting real-time products in the secure environment.

3.2.5.6 The Contractor shall develop COAMPS-OS capability for the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) DSRC environment. The COAMPS-OS control will be housed within NAVO, but the model execution will be conducted at DSRC. The Contractor shall develop monitoring strategy for both NAVO and DSRC components of the COAMPS-OS.

3.2.5.7 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the development of a COAMPS-OS Reanalysis capability. This reanalysis feature will enable COAMPS-OS to run 10, 15, 20, and 30 year reanalysis and the Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the development of this capability using the best available boundary conditions, assimilation techniques, and run processes. The Contractor shall also assist in the creation of monitoring capabilities for reanalysis runs within COAMPS-OS.

3.2.5.8 The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the maintenance of the COAMPS-OS Reanalysis capability. The Contractor shall work with NRL MMD’s operational partners on the execution of COAMPS-OS reanalysis runs and assist in the maintenance of this feature for the operational centers on NIPRNET, SIPRNET, and JWICS.

3.2.6 NRL SIPRNET Prototype Websites to Support Specific Models and Projects.

3.2.6.1 Classified Task. The Contractor shall maintain and upgrade the NRL MMD SIPRNET web site and support programs through web page design which will focus on areas such as web site responsiveness, web site security, and identifying and presenting the data required for Navy, DoD, and NIC users.

3.2.6.2 Classified Task. The Contractor shall identify website requirements through discussions with NRL MMD Principal Investigators, research the best fit design using state-of-the-art web based tools, and to test and implement those changes within the scope of applicable security posture.

3.2.6.3 Classified Task. The Contractor shall design and develop web-based tools to create and disseminate weather data including web sites for COAMPS, COAMPS-OS, COAMPS-TC, and NRL Satellite Products which can be accessed through the NRL MMD SIPRNET homepage. The Contractor shall transition the prototype web sites to operations at FNMOC.

3.2.7 Mesoscale NWP Model Transitions to Operations.

The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD to transition mesoscale NWP models to operations at Navy METOC production centers including the configuration management, development of manuals and documentation, development of training material, and technical support for operations tests and evaluations.

3.2.8 Mesoscale Project Management.

The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in managing the progress and integration of mesoscale NWP projects, such as COAMPS, COAMPS-OS, and COAMPS-TC, by coordinating work accomplished by collaborating agencies into the overall NRL MMD RTD&E roadmap.

3.3 RDT&E Task 3: Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Analysis Research and Development and Transition.

Under NRL’s technical direction, the Contractor shall perform applied research in atmospheric and coupled Data Assimilation system.

3.3.1 Global Data Assimilation.

3.3.1.1 The Contractor shall develop diagnostic observation QC software based on adjoint or statistical methods (e.g. Desrosier) tools to screen out bad observations and continually determine the error properties of the observations and forecast models utilized by NRL MMD DA systems

3.3.1.2 The Contractor shall develop flexible computing and network architectures to implement and test global and other DA system at remote DSRC and HPC centers.

3.3.1.3 The Contractor shall extend the NAVGEM remote Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to global coupled prediction system(s).

3.3.1.4 The Contractor shall develop non-traditional DA tools that are compatible with the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) – Advanced Representer (NAVDAS-AR) or other advanced DA systems. Tools shall include: 1) data ingest, QC, processing the background fields, generation of observation error statistics, production of the linearized forward operators, and formation of the innovation vectors; 2) sorting of the innovations into prisms, specification of the background error covariance, the descent algorithm, the post-multiplier, use of the linearized forward operators, production of the correction vectors, the buddy check algorithm, and parallel implementation using Message Passing Interface (MPI); and 3) interpolation of the correction field to the model surfaces, mean sea level pressure, and other sub-terrain problems; production of statistics for the NWP models; and controlling the forecast and analysis cycle.

3.3.1.5 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop system software to analyze and assimilate atmospheric data from selected satellites into numerical weather models. The Contractor shall develop tools for atmospheric observation data that detect attempts at atmospheric data manipulation. The system software will 1) detect abnormal data, 2) reject the data from the system, and 3) reject the suspect sensor or source from future assimilation cycles until a more thorough determination of the cause can be determined.

3.3.1.6 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop tools to assimilate temperature, wind, and humidity information gathered in denied areas into Global and mesoscale models with methods that are similar to those used to examine and assimilate unclassified observations routinely made by commercial airlines and military airlift. Other potential data sources include, but are not limited to: 1) high altitude airships; 2) water vapor lidar; 3) zero-pressure balloons; 4) a stratospheric constellation of super-pressure balloons; and 5) unmanned airborne systems (drones).

3.3.2 Next Generation DA Schemes Development.

3.3.2.1 The Contractor shall develop a new DA system using a collection of flexible-state estimation techniques that uses ensemble forecasts to estimate flow-dependent background error covariance or other probabilistic aspects of the background forecast. The best-known form of ensemble-based assimilation is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Development of hybrid ensemble-variational schemes may be required.

3.3.2.2 The Contractor shall develop a DA scheme to assimilate both atmospheric and oceanic observations, including satellite observations of wave height to estimate the spectral distribution of wave energy, acoustic transmission loss or propagation loss, or any quantity that the non-linear NWP or ocean model can forecast.

3.3.2.3 The Contractor shall develop satellite DA assimilation capabilities for NWP models for observations from various satellite sensors. These shall include radiances from visible, IR and microwave (MW) radiometers, radio occultation profiles and reflectivity from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS-RO and GNSS-R), ozone and aerosol measurements, atmospheric motion vector (AMV) and ocean surface winds, and cloud properties from satellite sensors.

3.3.2.4 The Contractor shall deliver a radar DA capability using data from shipboard and land-based Navy and DoD tactical radars. The product shall include assimilation of both reflectivity and radial component of the wind for initializing of NWP models.

3.3.2.5 The Contractor shall develop a coupled DA method for an atmosphere-ocean-ice-wave-land coupled system. In this coupled DA method, observations of one component of the coupled system can influence the initial state in another component of the coupled system.

3.3.2.6 The contractor shall assist NRL MMD to redesign and develop the data processing, quality control, observation operator and diagnostic components, The product shall use software design elements that are modular, object-oriented, and utilize (as appropriate) community developed methods and software.

3.3.2.7 The contractor shall assist NRL MMD to develop workflows for data processing and data assimilation using Cylc or other workflow management software.

3.3.3 Advanced Satellite Data Analysis and Applications.

3.3.3.1 The Contractor shall develop satellite data fusion applications products to support NRL Satellite Tactical Application project objectives. The Contractor shall conduct research related to GeoIPS or other systems that could include data manipulation and fusion, digital image analysis, algorithm development, system design, and fusion of satellite data with other types of environmental data such as NWP model data.

3.3.3.2 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop relevant support products using data from various satellite platforms and their sensors to provide timely, operationally relevant “value added” products to the Navy, DoD, and NIC.

3.3.3.3 Classified Task. The Contractor shall adapt large-scale unclassified meteorological satellite imagery into situational awareness tools to improve the collection and analysis of classified imagery to support Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) collection missions.

3.3.3.4 Classified Task. The Contractor shall develop a suite of near real-time operational and tactical-scale imagery products on SIPRNET that overlay specific meteorological hazards on operational and intelligence products.

3.3.3.5 The Contractor shall develop tools and techniques for ingesting data from new satellite sensors by: 1) demonstrating new remote sensing sensor capabilities by using near real-time data sets, 2) demonstrating the data processing capability by testing the navigation of the new sensor data and calibration of the new sensor data, 3) demonstrating the sensor data meets the designed specifications through testing and validating the navigation and calibration data processing capability, and 4) conducting extensive testing, validation and tuning for eventual transition to operations.

3.3.3.6 The Contractor shall use new imagery interpretation techniques and sensor data fusion capability to create multi-channel tactical parameters to support Navy and DoD warfighters. The Contractor shall develop tools to depict the following relevant parameters: dust, low and high clouds, snow, fog, fire, and day/night band applications.

3.3.3.7 The Contractor shall validate new products and demonstrate the utility on the NRL MMD Sat METOC web site and prepare them for eventual transition to operations.

3.3.3.8 The Contractor shall use new and innovative “value added” products fusing multiple datasets such as satellite, surface observations, ship and land-based radar data and NWP model output data and provide training in their use.

3.3.3.9 The Contractor shall develop multi-channel dust enhancements algorithms and techniques using imagery and other data from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other sensors. These products enable the detection of dust and discriminate between dust and clouds, thermal contrasts, and IR channel transparency differences.

3.3.3.10 The Contractor shall apply state-of-the-art web page development practices to create next generation satellite product demonstration web pages including NRL MMD Tropical Cyclone web page.

3.3.3.11 The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in developing satellite data assimilation capabilities for radiances received from visible, IR and microwave (MW) sounders, from bending angle profiles associated with GPS-RO, and from ozone profiles derived from existing and future satellite sensors.

3.3.3.12 The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in performing pre-launch system engineering and post-launch calibration and validation on MW data received from DoD MW sensors, including the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounders (SSM/I and SSMIS), the Compact Ocean Wind Vector Radiometer (COWVR) and other MW satellite sensors in order to ensure the data is compatible with existing and future Navy DA systems and in order to make a positive contribution to NRL model accuracy. This includes satellite raw data records (RDR), antenna temperature records (TDR), sensor data records (SDR), and derived environmental and sounding data records (engineering data records (EDR), lower atmospheric sounding (LAS), and upper air sounding (UAS)) calibration, validation, forward model development, and algorithm improvement.

3.3.4 Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation System Transitions to Operations.

The Contractor shall assist NRL MMD to transition global and mesoscale NWP and coupled Data Assimilation systems to operations at Navy METOC production centers including the configuration management, workflow management, development of manuals and documentation, development of training material, and technical support for operations tests and evaluations.

3.3.5 Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation System Project Management.

The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in managing the progress and integration of NWP projects, such as global and mesoscale NAVDAS-AR, by coordinating work accomplished by collaborating agencies into the overall NRL MMD RTD&E roadmap.

3.3.6 DoD Microwave Long-term Sensor Monitoring and Maintenance.

The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the monitoring and maintenance of DoD MW sensors including, but not limited to the SSM/I, SSMIS, Compact Ocean Wind Vector Radiometer (COWVR), Weather System Follow-on-Microwave (WSF-M), and other satellite data, developing QC procedures. This includes the continuous long-term near real-time system monitoring of TDRs, SDRs and EDRs to ensure data remains within required accuracy parameters and does not negatively impact NWP model accuracy. Assist in performing ground processing software maintenance and upgrade support, algorithm improvements, maintaining libraries of SSM/I and SSMIS calibration and validation software tools, testing new calibration and algorithm mitigation strategies, and investigating and assessing sensor data anomalies and data crashes at FNMOC.

3.3.7 Tactical Products Production

The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in development of new Tactical Products, such as new severe weather guidance, new climatological analyses, and utilities for understanding NWP products, in line with the overall NRL MMD RTD&E roadmap.

4 O&M,N Tasks

4.1 O&M,N Task 1: Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Maintenance.

Classified Task. The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the maintenance of global models and associated scripts and workflows transitioned to operations at Navy METOC production centers and any other site. Maintenance to the operational codes will include optimization, debugging, monitoring, calculation and analysis of skill metrics, and updates of manuals and training.

4.2 O&M,N Task 2: Operational Mesoscale Model Maintenance.

Classified Task. The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the maintenance of mesoscale models and associated scripts and workflows transitioned to operations at Navy METOC production centers and any other site. Maintenance to the operational codes will include optimization, debugging, monitoring, calculation and analysis of skill metrics, and updates of manuals and training.

4.3 O&M,N Task 3: Operational Global and Mesoscale Data Assimilation System Maintenance.

Classified Task. The contractor shall assist NRL MMD in the maintenance of mesoscale models and associated scripts and workflows transitioned to operations at Navy METOC production centers and any other site. Maintenance to the operational codes will include optimization, debugging, monitoring, calculation and analysis of skill metrics, and updates of manuals and training material.

4.4 O&M,N Task 4: Tactical and Operational User Support Products Production, Distribution, and Maintenance.

4.1

4.1.1 Tactical and Operational User Support Products

4.1.1.1 Classified Task. The Contractor shall produce, distribute and maintain Tactical and Operational User Support Products. These products increase the understanding by DoD operating forces of the effects of severe weather on operations, and to identify measures to mitigate operational risk.

4.1.1.2 Classified Task. The Contractor shall make all User Support Product information available and suitable for hosting on Navy, DoD, and NIC secure networks. Any information that is unclassified and non-sensitive shall be distributed to Fleet users via unclassified networks or in DVD format.

4.1.2 Severe Weather Port Studies.

4.1.2.1 The Contractor shall investigate and analyze operational user needs in Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasting and decision making related to wind warnings, sea states, wind intensity, track, and strike probability and their impacts on Navy ships.

4.1.2.2 The Contractor shall support operational forces by producing, distributing and maintaining Severe Weather Port Studies to assist in Force Protection (FP) and safety of operations, material, and personnel for both Continental United States (CONUS) based and deployed forces. These Port Study products provide actionable decision-making guidance for ship Captains, as well as environmental information for operational forecasters and ship routers.

4.1.2.3 The Contractor shall support operational forces by producing, distributing and maintaining NWP simulation-based Severe Weather Port Studies for the necessary FP under the extreme weather conditions for the specific ports.

4.1.2.4 The Contractor shall support operational forces by producing, distributing and maintaining Local Area Forecaster Handbooks describing regional and local weather phenomena and its impacts on Navy and DoD operations.

4.1.3 Hurricane and Typhoon Haven Handbooks.

4.1.3.1 The Contractor shall investigate and analyze operational user needs in Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasting and decision making related to wind warnings, sea states, wind intensity, track, and strike probability and their impacts on Navy ships.

4.1.3.2 The Contractor shall support operational forces by producing, distributing and maintaining customized Haven Handbooks, with particular emphasis on providing recommendations for TC evasion, to meet evolving operational needs and Warfighter requirements.

4.1.3.3 The Contractor shall support operational forces by producing, distributing and maintaining…