J.15 Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity & Development.pdf

PRO POOR AGENDA

FOR PROSPERITY AND DEVELOPMENT

(PAPD)

A FIVE-YEAR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

TOWARDS ACCELERATED, INCLUSIVE, AND SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

(July 2018 – June 2023)

REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA

September 30, 2018

Message from the President of the Republic of Liberia

My Fellow Citizens, On January 22, 2018 you entrusted me with the responsibility of leading the effort to build a capable state that is united in purpose and filled with hope and prosperity. This ushered in the first generational change in national leadership through the popular vote since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1951. I will remain eternally grateful for this sacred trust and will, to the best of my ability and with the help of God, strive to change the narrative on Liberia and bring about a more stable, prosperous, and democratic state in Africa.

Therefore, I take this opportunity to present the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development

(PAPD)—our national development plan for July 2018 to June 2023. The Pro-Poor agenda is a framework for inclusion, more equitable distribution of our national wealth, and a rights-based approach to national development. It is the second in the series of plans leading towards the goals of Vision 2030. It aligns our national plans with the African Union Agenda 2063 and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Over the next five years, we will do a few things and do them well. We will focus on bringing growth back to the economy by increasing productivity through value chains with emphasis on agricultural processing and marketing. We will promote the production of rice, cassava and vegetables using new and appropriate technologies because the agricultural sector is a major source of foreign exchange and livelihood of our people. The forest sector remains another area with significant potential for growth. While developing the potential in those areas, we will pay close attention to natural resource governance so local communities can increase their share of the benefits from our natural resources and work with the government to improve regulations of artisanal, small scale, and large-scale activities.

We cannot develop Liberia without good quality infrastructure and a skillful labor force. Therefore, over the next five years, my government will invest in high quality infrastructures including roads, affordable energy, air and sea ports, Telecommunication/ICT, housing, water, and sanitation. More importantly, we will invest in our people particularly into their education, health, and in ending widespread vulnerability.

Our government inherited a difficult fiscal situation and the only way forward is to cut and rationalize expenditure in the short term while growing the revenue base over the long term. Even with those measures, our progress will be slow without the support of key partners--the international development partners, the private sector, and the Civil Society. We want to acknowledge the pivotal roles they have played, reassure them of government’s commitment to an inclusive way forward, and seek their cooperation for the implementation of the PAPD. We want to reassure the business community, both

Liberian and foreign, of an enabling environment for their business ventures to prosper.

Our country is rich in resources and has a youthful labor force with tremendous potential. I call on all

Liberians, living at home and in the Diaspora, to join hands and put aside differences to develop this potential. After years of conflict and struggle with disease outbreak, we must turn in a direction where we can have hope again—in ourselves, in our nation, in our future. I encourage you to own this development agenda, receive it with positive minds, and become champions of the solutions it offers. Liberia belongs to all of us and we must now collaborate to build a new and better nation.

Finally, let me close by thanking all those who worked very hard to change our campaign manifesto and vision into action for a prosperous, stable, and resilient Liberia.

God bless Liberia!

George Manneh Weah

President of the Republic of Liberia xii

Acknowledgement from the Minister of Finance and Development Planning

I wish to extend my sincere thanks to the President of the Republic of Liberia, H.E. George Manneh

Weah, the Vice President, H.E. Jewel Howard-Taylor, and the Cabinet, the Liberian National

Legislature, and the Judiciary for your guidance and motivation in driving the formulation of the Pro-

Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD). I am also grateful to other heads of institution, autonomous agencies, county superintendents and various stakeholders for their support in organizing the technical sessions and mobilizing participants to contribute to this exercise.

We are indebted to various technical specialists participating in sector working groups and other multi-sectoral fora for the time and contributions to the formulation of the pillar goals and results framework. We also acknowledge the suggestions made by the private sector on moving the economy forward in the medium term. Many thanks to Civil Society Organization (CSO), faith-based organizations, youth organizations, women organizations, organizations of people with special needs, institutions of higher learning, the media and all other national institutions for unflinching support to this national effort.

We are very grateful to the United Nations system, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the European Union, the United States Agency for International Development, the Swedish Embassy, and all other international actors that provided technical and financial support during the PAPD formulation. Specifically, we want to acknowledge the United Nations Development Programme

(UNDP) and the International Labor Organization (ILO) for underwriting some of the cost of this exercise, and for deploying technical assistance to support our experts.

We extend gratitude to the team at the Department of Budget and Planning, Department of Economic

Management, Department of Administration, at the MFDP for the consolidated effort in driving the process and coming up with this National Development plan. Finally let me acknowledge the members of the special team that drew together this plan:

1. Mr. Melvin Crawford; Lead Program and Project Advisor

2. Mr Dehpue Zuo; Economist/Program Advisor

3. Ms. Re-Al Myers; Sustaining the Peace/Program Advisor

4. Mr. Teakon J. Williams; Governance/Program Advisor

5. Mr. Benedict Kolubah; Assistant Minister for Planning/National Coordinator

6. Mr. Mlen Too Wesley, Principal Advisor for Program and Policy

7. Ms. Marianne Caballero, Governance Advisor, Tony Blair Institute

Hon. Samuel D. Tweah

MINISTER

MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

xiii

Table of Contents

Message from the President of the Republic of Liberia ........................................................................ xi

Acknowledgement from the Minister of Finance and Development Planning .................................... xii

Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................. xiii

List of Figures and Tables ..................................................................................................................... xvii

Acronyms ...............................................................................................................................................xx

Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. xxii

1.0 The Current Context, National Vision, and Principles

1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 The Pro-Poor Agenda

1.1.2 Historical Perspective

1.2 Population and Development

1.2.1 Total Population

1.2.2 Labor Force and Labor Productivity

1.2.3 Urbanization and Sustainable Cities

1.2.4 The Liberian Diaspora

1.2.5 Liberia’s Demographic Dividend

1.3 Patterns of Poverty and Vulnerability

1.3.1 By Regions

1.3.2 By Demographic Groups

1.4 Potential Drivers of Growth, Transformation, and Reduction in Inequality

1.4.1 Southeastern A Region

1.4.2 Southeastern B Region

1.4.3 North Central Region

1.4.4 North Western Region

1.4.5 South Central Region

1.4.6 Montserrado Region

1.5 Assessment and Lessons Learned from Previous National Development Plans

1.5.1 Donor Dependency

1.5.2 Economic Growth

1.5.3 Planning and Coordination

1.5.4 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)/Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) ... 15

1.5.5 Specific Measures to address Lessons Learnt

1.5.6 New Deal for Fragile States

xiv

1.6 The Economy Under Review-Towards Macroeconomic Stabilization and Growth

1.7 The National Development Plan Vision and Principles

1.7.1 Introduction

1.7.2 Reaffirmation of the National Vision and Principles of Vision 2030

1.7.3 Structural Transformation

1.7.4 Goals and Objectives of the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development

1.7.5 High Level Objectives of the PAPD

1.7.6 The PAPD Alignment to Regional and Global Development Initiatives

1.7.6 The Four Pillars of the National Development Plan

1.7.7 Theory of Change

2.0 PILLAR ONE: POWER TO THE PEOPLE

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 Current Condition of the People

2.1.2 Desired Outcomes in Human Capital Development

2.2 Building Human Capacity for a Knowledge Economy

2.2.1 Basic Education and Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

2.2.2 Higher Education

2.2.3 Challenges going Forward

2.2.4 Strategic Priorities for Basic Education and TVET 2018 to 2023

2.2.5 Strategic Priorities for Higher Education 2018 to 2023

2.3 Expanding Access to Essential Health Services

2.3.1 Improving Health Service Delivery and Infrastructure

2.3.2 Challenges going forward

2.3.3 Financing Health Care

2.3.4 Partnerships in Healthcare Delivery

2.3.5 Strategic Priorities for Essential Health Services 2018 to 2023

2.4 Ending Vulnerability and Disparity

2.4.1 Vulnerability and Inequality

2.4.2 Children Protection

2.4.3 Empowering Women and Girls

2.4.4 Investing in Social Protection

2.4.5 Priorities going forward with Youth and Sports Development

2.4.6 Priorities going forward with Investments in Social Protection

3.0. THE ECONOMY AND JOBS

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 Current State of the Economy

xv

3.1.2 Development Outcomes and Macro fiscal Outlook

3.2 The Economy and Jobs Strategic Results for 2018 to 2023

3.3 Creating the Right Policy Environment

3.3.1 Expanding the Fiscal Space

3.3.2 Stabilize the Monetary System and Increase Financial Inclusion

3.3.3 Transform the Business Regulatory Environment and Investment Climate

3.4 Increasing the Competitiveness of Existing Industries

3.4.1 Increased Agriculture Production and Productivity

3.4.2 Manage Natural Resources Sustainably

3.5 Transforming the Infrastructure

3.5.1 Road Infrastructure

3.5.2 Air and Sea Transport

3.5.3 Post and Telecommunication

3.5.4 Access to Affordable Energy

3.5.5 Water and Sanitation

3.6 Sustaining Medium to Long-Term Economic Growth

3.6.1 Improved Governance and Management of State-owned Enterprises

3.6.2 Diversify the economy

3.6.3 Expanding Regional Integration and Trade

3.7 Short to Long Term Priorities of the Government

4.0 PILLAR THREE: SUSTAINING THE PEACE

4.1 Current State of Peace and Security

4.1.1 Challenges to Sustaining Peace and Security

4.1.2 Goals and Development Outcomes for Sustainable Peace

4.2 Ending Fragility and the Root Causes of Conflict

4.2.1 Increasing Civic Trust and Coexistence

4.2.2 Decreasing Violent Tendencies

4.3 Ensuring Access to Justice, Rule of Law and Human Rights

4.3.1 Improved Satisfaction with Judicial System and Rule of Law

4.3.2 Improving Access to Justice

4.3 Complying with International, Regional, and National Human Rights

4.4 Improving Security Service Delivery

5.0 PILLAR FOUR: GOVERNANCE AND TRANSPARENCY

5.1 The Current State of Governance

5.1.1 Challenges going forward

5.1.2 Development Outcomes

xvi

5.2 Building a More Capable State

5.2.1 Expanding Public Sector Capacity and Delivery

5.3 Reducing Corruption

5.3.1 Improving Fiscal Discipline, Reducing Waste, and Systemic Losses

6.0 IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Anticipated Challenges to Implementation Effectiveness

6.3 Migration to the Multi-Sectoral Approach

1.4 Development Corridors and Special Economic Zones

6.5 National Implementation and Coordination Framework

6.5.1 PAPD National Steering Committee

6.5.2 Cabinet

6.5.3 Implementation, Coordination and Delivery Unit (ICDU)

6.5.4 Multi-Sectoral Planning Working Group (MSPWG)

6.5.6 Pillar and Technical Working Groups

6.5.7 Regional Coordination and the Role of County Development Committees

6.5.8 The Role of Development Partners (DP)

6.5.9 The Role of the Private Sector

6.5.10 The Role of Civil Society

6.6 Partnership for Improved Aid Management and Coordination

7.0 FINANCING THE PAPD

7.1 Overview

7.2 Resource Envelope

7.2.1 Domestic Resources

7.2.3 External Resources/Official Development Assistance

7.2.4 Domestic and External Borrowing

7.2.5 Private Partnerships

7.2.6 Other Financing Sources

7.3 Expenditure

7.3.1 Current Expenditure

7.3.2 Program and Capital Expenditure

8.0 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

8.1 Overview

8.2 Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Progress towards the National Targets

8.2.1 Conceptual Framework

8.2.2 Measuring the High-Level National Targets

xvii

8.2.3 Measuring and Monitoring at the Subnational and Population Groups Level

8.2.4 Institutional Arrangements for Monitoring and Evaluation

8.3 Measuring, Monitoring, Evaluating the SDGs, the AU 2063, and ECOWAS 2020

ANNEXES

ANNEX I: HIGH LEVEL NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES

ANNEX II: RESULTS FRAMEWORK FOR PILLAR ONE

ANNEX III: RESULTS FRAMEWORK FOR PILLAR TWO

ANNEX IV: RESULTS FRAMEWORK FOR PILLAR THREE

ANNEX V: RESULTS FRAMEWORK FOR PILLAR FOUR

List of Figures and Tables Figure 1.1: Population Pyramid by Age by Gender Figure 1.2: Population Forecast to 2028 Figure 1.3: Spatial Distribution of the Population Figure 1.4: Wage Earnings of Women and Men Figure 1.5: Absolute Poverty by Region Figure 1.6: Potential Development Regions of Liberia Figure 1.7: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita Figure 1.8: Reinforcing Links and Development Pathways Figure 1.9: Theory of Change Pillar One and Two Figure 1.10: Theory of Change Pillar Three and Four Figure 2.1: Liberia vs Sub-Saharan Africa LIC Net Enrollment Rates Figure 2.2: Net Enrollment Rate by Gender 2015 Figure 2.3: Teachers by Gender by School Ownership Figure 2.4: Ownership of Schools Figure 2.5: Current Enrollment by Discipline Figure 2.6: Number of Health Facilities by Ownership Figure 3.1: Price Outlook for Major Export Commodities and Rice Figure 3.2: Price Outlook for Logs, Gold, and Iron Ore Figure 3.3: Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP Figure 3.4: Fiscal Balance as Percent of GDP Figure 3.5: Fan Chart Showing the Uncertainty Inherent in GDP Projections Figure 3.6: Forecast of Debt to GDP Ratio Figure 4.1: Supporting Relationships of the Strategies Figure 4.2: MII National Security Index Figure 4.3: MII Personal Safety Index Figure 4.4: Crime and Age 2016 to 2017 Figure 4.5: Coexistence and Civic Trust Figure 4.6: Satisfaction with State Service Delivery Figure 4.7: Confidence in National Institutions Figure 4.8: Absolute Poverty by County Figure 4.9: National Conflict Map Figure 6.1: Plan Implementation and Coordination Framework Figure 6.2: Roles and Responsibilities Figure 7.1: Liberia Sources of Central Government Financing 2012 to 2018 Figure 7.2: Revenue Vs. Grants as Percent of GDP xviii

Figure 7.3: Trend in Domestic Revenue and Civil Servants Compensation Figure 8.1: Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating the PAPD

Table 1.1: Distribution of the Population by Statistical Regions

Table 1.2: Economic Corridors and Rural Urban Migration Table 1.3: Absolute, Food, and Extreme Poverty by County Table 1.4: Liberia Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018

Table 1.5: Liberia Vision 2030 Long Term Outcomes Table 1.6: Seeds of Change Table 1.7: Alignment of PAPD, AfT, AU Agenda 2063, and SDG's Table 1.8: High-Level National Targets and Development Outcomes of the PAPD Table 2.1: HDI and SDG Indicators Table 2.2: Liberia's HDI and Component Indicators relative to select groups of countries Table 2.3: Liberia 2015 Inequality-Adjusted HDI relative to select groups of countries Table 2.4: Liberia 2015 Gender Inequality Index relative to select groups of countries Table 2.5: Pillar One: Power to the People Table 2.6: Market-Based Demand for Skills by 2030 Table 2.7: Higher Institutions of Learning in Liberia Table 2.8: Short, to Medium Term Priorities in for Basic Education and TVET Table 2.9: Short to Medium Term Priorities in Higher Institutions of Learning Table 2.10: Density of Health Services per Unit Population Table 2.11: Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services Table 2.12: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Women Empowerment Table 2.13: Family Out of Pocket Expenses on Education in 2016 Table 2.14: Social Safety Net and School Feeding Table 2.14-a: ILO Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Cost estimates Table 2.15: Current and Anticipated Beneficiaries of Working Age Population Programs Table 2.16: People Receiving Pension Payments Table 2.16 - a: ILO Universal Pension Cost Estimates (Age 70 and above)

Table 2.16 - b: Universal Cash Transfer Estimate (Severely Disabled Persons)

Table 2.17: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Youths Table 2.18: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Social Protection Table 3.1: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators Baseline Scenario 2018 to 2023 Table 3.2: Forecasts of Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 2018 to 2023 Table 3.3: The Economy and Jobs 2018 to 2023 Table 3.4: Priority Food Crop Projections Table 3.5: Production and Exports Forecast of Priority Crops Table 3.6: Projected Production and Exports of Round Logs Table 3.7: Major Mineral Development Agreements Table 3.8: Summary Statistics on Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions in Liberia 2017 Table 3.8: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priority Investments for the Economy and Jobs Table 4.1: Pillar 3 Goals and Development Outcomes 2018-2030 Table 4.2: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Increasing Civic Trust and Coexistence Table 4.3: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Decreasing Violent Tendencies Table 4.4: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Judicial Systems Table 4.5: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Access to Justice Table 4.6: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Human Rights Protection and Promotion

Table 4.7: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Security Table 5.1: Governance and Transparency 2018 to 2030 xix

Table 5.2: Short to Long Term Priorities for Expanding Public Sector Capacity and Delivery Table 5.3: Short to Long Term Priorities for Reducing Corruption Table 6.1: Public Financial Management Act 2009-Legal Context for Aid Management Table 6.2: Aid Modality Fiscal Years 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 Table 7.1: Estimates of the Resource Envelope Table 7.2: Current Expenditure Forecast by Object of Expenditure Table 7.3: Incremental Expenditure for PAPD Priority Programs Table 7.4: Forecast of Resource Mobilization Targets Table 8.1: Goal One: Measuring the National Indicators Table 8.2: Goal Two: Measuring the National Indicators xx

Acronyms ACA Agricultural Concession Agreement

ACRWC African Charter on the Rights of Women and Children

ADR Alternation Dispute Resolutions

AIDS Acquired Imuno-Deficiency Syndrome

APRM Africa Peer Review Mechanism

AU African Union

DTF Distance to Frontier

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States

BPA

EPHS

Beijing Platform for Action

Essential Package of Health Services

CET Common External Tariffs

CSC County Service Center

CSO Civil Society Organization(s)

ESRP Economic Stability and Recovery Program

EAP Economically Active Population

EU European Union

EVD Ebola Virus Disease

FDO Foreign Direct Investment

FMC Forest Management Contract

FGM

GC

Female Genital Mutilation

Governance Commission

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GNI Gross National Income

GII

HDI

Gender Inequality Index

Human Development Index

HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey

HIV Human Imuno-Deficiency Virus

ICDU Implementation Coordination and Development Unit

IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System

IPRS Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy

IT Information Technology

LDA Liberia Development Alliance

LDHS Liberia Demographic and Health Survey

LISGIS Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services

LNP Liberia National Police

LRDC Liberia Reconstruction and Development Committee

LTO Long Term Outcomes

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation xxi

MACs Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions

MDA Mineral Development Agreement

MDG Millennium Development Goals

MFDP Ministry of Finance and Development Planning

MIA Ministry of Internal Affairs

MOE Ministry of Education

MOH Ministry of Health

MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index

MSME Micro, Small, Medium Enterprises

MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework

MYFF Multi Year Fiscal Framework

NASSCORP National Social Security and Welfare Corporation

NDP National Development Plan

NKI National Key Indicators

NSS National Statistical System

ODA Official Development Assistance

PAPD Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development

PETS Public Expenditure Tracking Survey

PFM Public Financial Management

PLHIV People Living with Human Imuno-Deficiency Virus

PPCA Public Procurement and Concession Act

PPCC Public Procurement and Concession Commission

PSG Peace and State building Goals

PUP Private Use Permit

PWD People with Disability

SCRI Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index

SEZ Special Economic Zone

SWG Sector Working Group

TFR

TOC

TOR

Total Fertility Rate

Theory of Change

Terms of Reference

TSC Timber Sales Contract

TVET Technical Vocational Education and Training

UDHR

UN

Universal Declaration of Human Rights

United Nations

UNDAF

UNICEF

United Nations Development Assistance Framework

United Nations Children Fund

UNMIL United Nations Mission in Liberia xxii

Executive Summary The Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development 2018 to 2023 (PAPD) is the second in the series of 5-year

National Development Plans (NDP) anticipated under the Liberia Vision 2030 framework. It follows the Agenda for Transformation 2012-2017 (AfT). It is informed as well by lessons learned from the implementation of the

Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy 2007 (iPRS) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (2008-2011).

The fundamentals underpinning the PAPD are: i) Liberia is rich in human and natural resources; but ii) is deprived of development largely because its human capital lacks the knowledge to transform the natural resources into wealth—whether through farming, mining, fishing, or other productive ventures that require technology or financial investments. Consequently, Liberia is relatively rich in natural capital but relatively poor in relations to its peers in both human and produced capital. Moreover, because of a legacy of entrenched inequality in access to development opportunities, widespread infrastructure deficits and pervasive poverty have become the binding constraints to future growth and prosperity.

Economic Growth and Development

The government acknowledges significant progress made over the past decade the investments made and assistance received. On the economic growth rates and life expectancy at birth, Liberia exceeded the Sub-

Saharan Africa average for the same period. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita rose by 8.4 percent from 1990 to 2015.1 The Human Development Index (HDI) increased by 10.6 percent between 2000 and 2015.

Life expectancy at birth increased by 14 years and mean years of schooling by 1.8 years, over the same period.

Nevertheless, Liberia remains in the low human development category and absolute poverty is on the rise in 5 of the 6 national statistical regions. The gains produced by economic growth have not been universally felt nor are they sustainable. Liberia ranks as the 11th lowest of the 188 countries on the 2016 HDI. On the inequality adjusted and the gender HDI, Liberia is among the 10 most unequal countries in the world.2

The Pro-Poor Agenda

The Pro-Poor Agenda is therefore about the people, how to strengthen their capacity to thrive; and how to draw all Liberians living at home and abroad into the national development process. Over the next five years, addressing the basic needs of Liberians for income security, better access to basic services, and greater opportunities for self-improvement in an enabling environment that is inclusive and stable will be at the core of the pro-poor agenda. While one of the aims, over the long term, remains raising per capita income levels and economic status to a middle-income country as outlined under the Vision 2030 framework, the focus over the next five years will be on removing the binding constraints to reaching that goal.

National Visioning

The Pro-Poor Agenda is also about crafting a national identity aligned to the Africa Agenda 2063 and the

Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Vision 2020. What clearly emerged from the national consultations on the future of Liberia held in 2012 is that the tendency to bifurcate the Liberian identity into an

Americo-Liberian vs. Indigenes cleavage leaves the “erroneous impression of two discreet communities” that need to be reconciled for political, social, and economic, development to take hold. But it is evident that the

Liberian identity is a fusion of values of multiple “largely patriarchal traditional societies”, different tenets of faith, and the “influence of black settler culture”. Moreover, new cleavages emerged out of the civil war— between the Diaspora and those Liberians who remained at home, and between those who were victimized and those who were the perpetrators of violence. All these cleavages must be addressed for Liberia to go forward successfully as a united people and a progressive nation.

Significance of the Recent Transition in National Leadership

The inauguration of H.E. George Manneh Weah as the 24th President of the Republic of Liberia and H.E. Jewel

Howard Taylor as first female Vice President, presents a unique opportunity to begin a transformation. It marked

1 UNDP, Human Development Report, 2016

2 IBID

xxiii the first peaceful and democratic transition of power in 73 years. It was the first generational change in national leadership through popular vote since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1951 and the launch of the

National Unification and Integration Policy in 1960.

This opens a window of opportunity to build a new nation based on the principles of inclusion, on equity in the distribution of revenues generated from Liberia’s natural resources, and on a rights-based approach to national development. It also opens the opportunity to unite Liberia’s diverse faiths and ‘nations’ around a national identity that reflects Liberia’s geographic position and relations with the rest of the Africa region.

Goals of the PAPD

In view of the foregoing, the objectives of the PAPD are:

1. To build more capable and trusted state institutions that will lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity

2. To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute poverty by 23 percent across 5 out of 6 regions--through sustained and inclusive economic growth driven by scaled-up investments in agriculture, in infrastructure, in human resource development, and in social protection

Pillars of the PAPD

To make progress towards the PAPD and eventually the Vision 2030 goals over the next five years, the strategies and interventions are built around four pillars which will form the pathways for the next five years:

1. Power to the People— To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives thru more equitable provision of opportunities in education, health, youth development, and social protection

2. The Economy and Jobs— Economic stability and job creation through effective resource mobilization and prudent management of economic inclusion

3. Sustaining the Peace—Promoting a cohesive society for sustainable development

4. Governance and Transparency—An inclusive and accountable public sector for shared prosperity and sustainable development

The interventions under Pillars One and Two will contribute directly to the income security and empowerment goals; while those under Pillars Three and Four will contribute to building of a peaceful and united country pursuing a new vision of full integration into the African continent both in culture and vision.

National Targets are presented in the form of results frameworks for each of the four pillars. These are tools to assist government Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions (MACs), and partners, to logically link interventions to the high-level goals over the next five years. The insertion of specific targets commits MACs to attaining those development outcomes falling within their remit.

Pillar One—Power to the People

Many years of civil crises undermined the advances made in human capital development in Liberia--ranging from hundreds of thousands of deaths to internal displacement and outmigration of skilled labor into the Diaspora.

Going forward, human capital development in Liberia must cut across various social sectors and the Government of Liberia is the main duty bearer. It must also cut across gender with the exigency of addressing historic and systemic biases against female at home, in the marketplace, and in the political arena.

Therefore, reducing out of school rates and increasing retention and completion rates for girls, while raising minimum education infrastructure standards for boys and girls and ensuring appropriate responses to Gender-

Based Violence, are major thrusts under human capacity development. Providing lifelong learning opportunities to all Liberians on an equitable and inclusive basis will also be a special emphasis.

Reducing the maternal mortality rate will be a priority along with prevention of teen age pregnancies in the home and school environment. Reduction in under-five malnutrition of girls and boys will reduce risk of early xxiv life impairment which can become permanent and might also affect future generations. Malnutrition prevention will bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits over the medium to long term.

Reducing women inequality in political, social, and economic life through government and partner supported interventions, and in partnership with women groups and communities, is also to be produced under this Pillar.

Among the sets of interventions to produce this outcome is the adoption and strengthening of sound policies and enforceable legislation, the application of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) in the multi-year fiscal framework of the government, and the implementation of the Revised National Gender Policy.

The youth development outcome seeks to accelerate the process of transforming Liberia’s demographic dividend into a potential driver of growth starting with expanding social inclusion through work and life skills opportunities; in addition to scaled-up Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) interventions.

Social protection investments include wider and sustainable expansion in access to the four minimum guarantees: i) access to essential health care, ii) basic income and food security for the whole family-especially children in the family environment (including vulnerable groups and people with disability), iii) providing some form of basic income for the working age population through pre-employment support and household enterprises for adolescents and young adults, expansion in the national social pension scheme, enforcement of the Decent Work Act and iv) social grants for the elderly, pregnant women, and people living with disability.

Pillar Two—Economy and Jobs

Under Pillar Two, the emphasis is on maintaining macroeconomic stability, building good infrastructure, and providing a business-friendly environment that can stimulate private productive investments and create more and better-quality jobs that are germane to sustaining the peace and to future economic growth. This pillar describes critical interventions that the Government will pursue in the macroeconomic space.

In the optimistic economic scenario for the next five years, the path of economic growth uses exogenously fixed forecasts for baselining. Raising Real GDP growth from 3.2% in 2018 to 5.8% in 2023 will be used as the minimum target of the government. In this scenario, growth will be underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary; and foreign exchange reforms, to create the right policy environment, improve the doing business environment, increase competitiveness through investments in real growth-enabling sectors mainly agriculture and fisheries, forestry and service sectors; and by investments in reducing infrastructure deficits using approaches that are more labor-intensive and use more local content.

The optimistic economic scenario also projects higher annual external loan disbursements, in line with Liberia’s Article IV commitment on debt sustainability, to meet high spending needs on capital investment projects. The government also intends to scale up investments in human capital development, under Pillar One, to generate larger returns from public spending; while anticipating higher domestic resource mobilization to make up for any reduction in grant funding for social spending.

To open new and expand existing cross-border trade opportunities in the sub region, government will improve

Liberia’s favorable position as a transport and re-export trade corridor by reducing its trading across borders distance to frontier (DTF) score of 72.23% to become comparable to its closest neighbors, Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, and Sierra Leone at 45.85%, 53.76% and 51.01% respectively.3 The first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) will open in

FY2021/2022. Finally, partnerships with private actors on State Owned Enterprises reform will reduce pressure on public expenditure and increase FDI inflows.

Pillar Three—Sustaining the Peace

Sustainable peace is essential to the achievement of all other objectives of the PAPD. Improvement in human capacity and the development of a knowledge economy, which aim to transfer “power to the people” under

Pillar One, can only be achieved if initiatives are inclusive, non-discriminatory, and respectful of human rights and justice. Likewise, private sector-led growth under Pillar Two requires stability and an assurance that long-

3 Source: World Bank xxv term investments can be protected. Building a capable state that governs effectively and transparently, under

Pillar Four, requires accountability and reconciliation of political, social, and economic injustices.

The key outcomes under this pillar will therefore be ending fragility and the root causes of conflict, improving the justice system and human rights protection, and enhancing national defence and security. The interventions are not only concerned with negative peace – expressed through the absence of violence, but also with positive peace – expressed through social cohesion and integration. The attainment of a cohesive society is not only fundamental to achieving sustainable peace, but also supports the achievement the pro-poor goal of lifting the poor and vulnerable out of poverty. The government views social cohesion as both a desirable end and a means to inclusive development.

Pillar Four—Governance and Transparency

The interventions of Pillar Four directly support one of the two development goals of the PAPD--building a peaceful, stable, and inclusive nation. Achieving this goal is only possible through effective implementation of policies and strategies that will ensure the participation of the entire citizenry in decision making and empowers all groups–especially women, children, and people with special needs. The achievement of this goal hinges on both major forms of governance – political and economic.

On political governance the focus going forward will be on deepening fiscal transference, strengthening local administrative capacity for public service delivery, and elections reform. Economic governance interventions will focus mainly on improving State Owned Enterprises (SOE) governance for more effective service delivery, better financial management, and improved procurement, and reduction of subsidy provided for operational support.

Furthermore, the government sees the passage of the Land Rights Act is a critical step forward towards improving land security and ensuring the productive use of land assets to reduce poverty and vulnerability.

Accelerating the process of accession to the provisions of the Act and ensuring the full functionality of the Land Authority will therefore be a major focus under economic governance.

The government, as a priority under this pillar, will put into place policies, strategies, and programs that make

Liberia a more capable state. To achieve this, the government commits to the full utilization of existing and the new framework and instruments that can improve fiscal discipline, expand public sector capacity to deliver, expand service delivery to all counties, and improve tenure in the governance of natural resources. By so doing, two development outcomes will be produced: i) a reformed public sector exhibiting improved fiscal discipline and service delivery, and a rebalance in the concentration of economic and political activities away from

Monrovia, and ii) improvement in natural resource governance.

The second priority for the government under this pillar is reducing corruption. Corruption undermines the capacity of the state and increases the cost to deliver basic services. To achieve this, the government commits to strengthening anti-graft institutions as the foot soldiers to lead the process while adapting e-governance via

ICT platform to improve business processes and productivity. By so doing, two development outcomes will be produced: i) More robust structures reducing waste and other systemic losses in the operations of Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions and (ii) Universal migration to ICT platforms and wider adoption of e-government to improve processes and productivity.

Implementation and Coordination Arrangements

Drawing on lessons-learned during the implementation of the AfT, a PAPD National Steering Committee will replace the Liberia Development Alliance Steering Committee as the apex level coordination and decision-making body. It will be a smaller body chaired by the President of the Republic of Liberia.

Each pillar will be led by a Champion, whose primary role will be to convene quarterly meetings to deliberate on progress towards the development outcomes and resource requirements from a multisectoral perspective.

Twelve Technical Groups--organized around the development priorities, comprised of experts and specialists from MACs, DP’s, civil society and business representatives, will support the pillars. A PAPD Implementation xxvi

Coordination and Delivery Unit (ICDU) will serve as secretariat to the Steering Committee and Pillar Working

Groups. A Multisectoral/Regional Planning Working Group, comprised of the heads of Planning Departments of

MACs and County Development Committees, will support the ICDU.

Financing

The costing model of the PAPD is built around two principles: i) reflect all of government costs, current and capital, in the expenditure framework; ii) reflect the continuity of government through the capture of costs and funding commitments to ongoing sets of activities in existing sector and strategic plans--while forecasting the incremental cost of PAPD priority programs and investments.

Current expenditure of the government--which includes compensation, consumables, domestic and foreign debt service payments, subventions to SOE’s, as well as other earmarked expenditures, is expected to be slightly more than US$2.7 billion over the five-year PAPD period. The total incremental cost for priority programs and capital investments is estimated at US$4.5 billion. Approximately 88 percent will go to Pillars One (20.4%) and Two

(67.3%) investments. Pillars Three and Four will account for 6.3 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. Total program and investment spending will average 25 percent of GDP over the PAPD period. Estimates of the resource mobilization target is US$1.7 billion--based on the anticipated financing gap under current economic growth and domestic resource mobilization scenarios.

Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Progress

The PAPD is designed to be measurable. The key measurements for progress on the first goal will be the Social

Cohesion and Reconciliation Index (SCRI). The goal is to improve the index from 6.6 to 8. The other indicator will be civic trust and coexistence—that is expected to improve from the current value of 5.2 to 7 over the PAPD period. Finally, government will track perceptions on national security and personal safety, satisfaction with state service delivery, and confidence in the national institutions.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will remain a key measurement of progress on the second goal.

Nevertheless, progress on the second goal will also be measured by advancement towards the Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs). To measure inclusion and inequality, the HDI and the supplementary assessments on multiple dimensions of human progress will be used.

The national targets of the PAPD are presented from both a regional and a sectoral perspective succeeding in decomposition of the development indicators to the subnational levels for the first time. Subnational disaggregation on access to health, education, and opportunities to make a decent living will be measured through the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).

The details of a comprehensive M&E system will be elaborated by the ICDU, in consultation with development partners and key actors in the National Statistical System (NSS), before the end of calendar year 2018. This new plan will essentially be an update to the final National M&E Plan for the AfT and will include recommendations from the Final Report on the Establishment of Baseline Indicators for Key Sector Plans, AfT-II, SDGs G7+ and

Agenda 2063 dated June 30, 2017.

Surveys and censuses conducted by LISGIS, and discrete sector assessments and project evaluations conducted with development partners, will be used to generate evidence of outcomes and impact across various regions of the country. The PAPD will be evaluated at midterm and at end term. The focus of the former will be on progress measurements, assessment of the likelihood of attaining, targets, identification of constraints that can be mitigated or areas that can be accelerated to inform possible midcourse adjustments. The latter will incorporate the findings of the former but will extract useful lessons learned to guide the formulation of the successor national development plan among other things.

1.0 The Current Context, National Vision, and Principles

1.1 Introduction

The Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development 2018 to 2023 (PAPD) is the second in the series of National Development Plans (NDP) anticipated under the Liberia Vision 2030 framework. It follows the Agenda for Transformation 2012-2017 (AfT). It draws heavily on the implementation experience of the AfT but is informed by lessons learned from the implementation of the Interim Poverty

Reduction Strategy 2007 (iPRS) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (2008-2011) as well.

Liberia is rich in human and natural resources. The most valued asset is its people and to the extent that widespread poverty and inequality undermine their potential, they also constrain Liberia’s capacity to attain the aspiration of its people to live in a peaceful and united country enjoying prosperity. While the challenges going forward are many, the opportunities are enormous given the current demographic makeup.

Liberia is also severely underdeveloped because the human and knowledge capital have not been developed to productively and sustainably exploit the natural resources and produce wealth. While the Government of Liberia acknowledges that progress has been made with the support of development partners on key national aggregate indicators over the past 12 years; such as per capita income growth, the Human Development Index (HDI), life expectancy at birth, and mean years of schooling, these gains have not been universal and sustainable.

Additionally, when inequality measurements are introduced, the adjusted HDI shows a loss of 33.4 percent due to inequality in the distribution of the basic indicators of development. The average loss for Sub-Saharan Africa is 32.2 percent over the same period.4 On the inequality adjusted and the gender HDI, Liberia falls among the 10 most unequal countries.5

Today, most Liberians remain poor, face some form of income and/or food insecurity and vulnerability. In 14 of the 15 regions of the country, absolute poverty levels started to decline at the end of the conflict in 2005; but since 2014 absolute poverty is on the rise. The Government of Liberia sees pervasive poverty, inequality, and widespread deprivation as the greatest restraint to sustaining the peace and accelerating growth and sustainable development. Additionally, the fractured relationship between the state and the people must also be addressed as a matter of priority to be able to go forward.

Therefore, this document is divided into two parts. Part I is the main document. It provides a broad overview of the development challenges and the short to long-term priorities of the government.

Chapter One provides the context, experience with state building--including the narratives on the formation of the state that explain the drivers of the conflict and contributors to widespread and pervasive poverty. It also presents the macroeconomic performance and conceptual framework underpinning the PAPD. Chapters Two to Five unpack the Pro-Poor Agenda; breaking it down into priorities and interventions around four pillars aimed at building human capital, restoring growth and diversifying the economy, sustaining peace, and building a more capable state while reducing corruption around strong institutions and good governance practices. Chapter six describes the implementation and Chapter seven the financing. The monitoring and evaluation plan is the subject of Chapter eight. Part II is the annex comprised largely of the results framework outlining the high-level national targets and interventions under the four pillars.

4 IBID

5 IBID

1.1.1 The Pro-Poor Agenda

The Pro-Poor Agenda is about improving the wellbeing of people and how to draw all Liberians, living at home and abroad, into the national development process--leaving no one behind. Over the next five years, addressing the basic needs of Liberians for income security, better access to basic services, and greater opportunities for self-improvement in a peaceful, inclusive, and stable enabling environment will be at the core of the pro-poor approach. Over the long term, raising income levels and economic status to a middle-income country as outlined under the Vision 2030 framework will remain in focus. Over the next five years, however, the priority will be placed on removing the binding constraints to reaching that goal.

Nearly two-thirds of the population currently live in the Montserrado and the North Central statistical regions comprising four counties. Within this geographic space, unplanned urbanization continues to accelerate at an unprecedented pace—creating a potential source of economic paralysis or providing an opportunity to develop urban markets. Successive waves of Liberians migrated from rural to urban areas seeking safety during the civil war. Post-war, the migration continues because the modest social and economic infrastructure outside of Monrovia had been destroyed or fell into disrepair. Rapid growth in the size and number of informal settlements is now a significant health risk and impose a potential threat to peace and stability over the long term—if left unresolved.

Residents of informal settlement generally have little or no secure title to the land they currently occupy and face severe income insecurity. Urban unemployment is twice as high as rural areas and three times as high among the youthful population. Moreover, access to basic services such as electricity, water, sanitation in some informal settlements is worse than in rural areas.

Therefore, the PAPD will mark a paradigm shift from sectoral-based national development planning to an integrated pro-poor multisectoral approach--with a major focus on addressing disparities and inequality between demographic groups and regions of Liberia. Nevertheless, to fully appreciate the current situation and agree on a strategy for going forward, it is important to understand Liberia’s current under-development from a historical perspective.

1.1.2 Historical Perspective

Through much of its history, Liberia has struggled with building an inclusive nation with shared values and cultural appreciation extending well beyond the narrow political and economic interests of the ruling elite. State power and the control of natural resources, and the wealth that process conveys, are often co-opted by the ruling class to the exclusion of others. This zero-sum game of politics has been a great impediment to national development and has eroded the public administration culture so that state institutions find themselves largely servicing the interests of those currently in power.6

Liberia became an independent country in 1847. The newly independent republic faced challenges to its sovereignty from colonial neighbors—France and Britain and from the local rulers. Through a series of negotiated peace treaties and deeds of cession made with local rulers over the next three decades, largely to end recurrent contests over land boundaries and control of resources and to improve trading relations, the 16 nations and 5 settler communities were brought…