J.1 Hypothetical Tasks.docx

Solicitation 693JJ921R000008 Small Business Behavioral Safety Research Support Attachment J.1

Hypothetical Task Order

The response to this hypothetical task order is limited to a brief description of project requirements of no more than twenty-five (25) pages (total, for all four (4) requirements described below). This outline should provide details about each requirement (e.g., identify specific data elements to include in the data analysis and the rationale for their selection), a list of staff members/labor categories involved, and an estimate of the number of hours required to complete the task. This project is hypothetical, and there are no plans to fund this task under the scope of this effort. The focus of the task is on the effect of the device on driver behavior/response to pedestrians and bicyclists, not evaluating the design of the after-market device.

TASK: The Effects of a Novel (non-existent) Pedestrian/Bicyclist Alert on Drivers’ Behaviors, Including Driving Performance

Background NHTSA reports that, in 2017, 19% of those who died in traffic crashes were non-occupants, primarily pedestrians and, to a lesser extent, bicyclists. This is up from 14% in 2008.[footnoteRef:1] Most pedestrian fatalities occur in urban areas under dark conditions; about a third of pedestrians killed in a crash had BACs of .08 or higher.[footnoteRef:2] Similarly, 75% of bicyclist fatalities occur in urban areas, about half under dark conditions; 20% of the bicyclists had BACs of .08 or higher.[footnoteRef:3] [1: National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2018, October). 2017 fatal motor vehicle crashes: Overview. (Traffic Safety Facts Research Note. Report No. DOT HS 812 603). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.] [2: National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2019, March). Pedestrians: 2017 data. (Traffic Safety Facts. Report No. DOT HS 812 681). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.] [3: National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2019, June). Bicyclists and other cyclists: 2017 data. (Traffic Safety Facts. Report No. DOT HS 812 765). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.]

Thus, pedestrians and bicyclists, who lack the physical protections of motor vehicle occupants, are particularly vulnerable outside of daylight hours. This risk is exacerbated for pedestrians/bicyclists with high BACs, who may exercise poor judgment and behave unpredictably. Technology that could alert the driver to the presence of a person near the roadway, particularly in low visibility conditions such as at night, dusk, or dawn, could allow a driver time to reduce speed or stop their vehicle, thereby reducing fatalities among pedestrians and bicyclists.

The objective of this project is to explore the effects on driver behavior of a hypothetical, after-market device, the Ped/Bike Flag, which alerts drivers to the presence of people such as pedestrians and bicyclists on or within a foot of the roadway, within 75 feet of the front of vehicle. The device operates only at speeds below 45mph. When the system detects a pedestrian/bicyclist, a small display unit mounted above the rear-view mirror emits a tone and displays an arrow that points left, ahead, or right indicating the direction of the hazard. The system works in all light levels and is not affected by moisture. It has low miss and false alarm rates. Note that the objective is NOT to assess usability of the system but rather to examine its effect (if any) on drivers’ behavior.

The Offeror should discuss how it would conduct a research project with the following requirements: Review the literature on effects of alert systems on driver behaviors. Analyze existing data on characteristics of crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists. Collect naturalistic data to explore the effects of the Ped/Bike Flag on driver behaviors in the presence of pedestrians and bicyclists. Assuming the Ped/Bike Flag is effective in alerting drivers to the presence of pedestrians and bicyclists with minimal unintended consequences, develop a plan to conduct a demonstration project and to evaluate the effects of the device on a larger scale.

The Offeror shall detail its approach to conducting a study that covers the following requirements:

Requirement 1: Review the literature on effects of alert systems on driver behaviors.

The Offeror shall describe a review of the literature on effects of alert systems on driver behaviors, e.g., improved response times to hazards, the extent to which the system poses a distraction or users become over reliant on the system. The Offeror shall provide and justify a list of sources to be searched, search terms, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the method for identifying relevant abstracts.

Requirement 2: Analyze existing data on characteristics of crashes involving pedestrians and bicyclists.

The Offeror shall identify databases to be used in the analyses and shall justify the inclusion of each database by describing the type and quality of data it contains. At a minimum, the Offeror shall include the sample size of the database, a plan to acquire the data, and planned analyses. The offer shall identify the data elements to be included in the analyses, along with the rationale for their inclusion. Additionally, the Offeror shall discuss likely barriers to acquiring and analyzing the data, including the limitations of the proposed databases. Provide a report that describes findings from the literature review and data analysis.

Requirement 3: Collect and analyze naturalistic data from drivers using the system to identify benefits Ped/Bike Flag, as well as misuse (e.g., overreliance).

The Offeror shall provide a plan to obtain naturalistic data on the effects of Ped/Bike Flag use on driver behaviors in yielding to pedestrians and bicyclists. The data collection and analysis design shall include adequate detail to demonstrate that the Offeror understands where and when risk to pedestrians and bicyclists is elevated in order to collect adequate data to support analyses, as well as a description of the data acquisition system, independent and dependent variables, and planned analyses. The plan shall also describe plans to acquire necessary approval to collect data, recruit participants, collect and analyze data, and report results.

Assume the naturalistic study findings (requirement 3) provide evidence that Ped/Bike Flag is effective in alerting drivers to the presence of pedestrians and bicyclists with minimal unintended consequences.

Requirement 4: Develop a plan to conduct a demonstration project and evaluate the effects of the device on a larger scale.

The Offeror shall consider measures of the process, outcome, and impact of this program. The design shall include, at a minimum, the number of sites, site selection criteria, coordination with the site prior to data collection; process, outcome, and impact measures and possible confounding variables; means of obtaining data; data analysis plan; limitations of the study; types of conclusions that could be drawn from the findings. The Offeror is free to consider any data elements; however, the Offeror must describe how each data element could be obtained, compiled, and analyzed, and under what constraints. The Offeror shall describe potential obstacles to site selection, data collection, and/or data analyses and how minimize them. Report the results.