Wind Speed Paramter in Lightning Flow Regimes.pdf
PDF 2 MB Posted
- Solicitation number
- FA252123QB112
About this file
This document outlines a research project to improve a lightning probability forecasting tool used by the Department of the Air Force Space Command. The project analyzed different wind speed parameters and their correlation with lightning occurrence across various flow regimes from May to October between 1995 to 2005 and 2007. Based on the analysis, the researcher concluded the lightning probability tool should be upgraded to add wind speed as a new model predictor.
The related federal contract opportunity seeks proposals to upgrade the lightning probability tool to incorporate wind speed as a new model input based on the findings of the research project. Offerors are asked to modify the tool's existing lightning prediction equations to include wind speed as an additional variable to improve forecast accuracy. The solicitation was issued by the Department of the Air Force Space Command.
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Text version
Flow Regime Wind Speed and Lightning Probability Project
Presented By
John Panor
Outline
● Background
● Introduction
● Data
● Methods
● Graphs/Tables
● Overall Conclusion/Future Work
● References
Background On Lightning Probability Project (Past Work)
● Established Flow Regimes
● Phase 1: five equations by month
● Phase 2: modifications for five equations and development of Objective Lightning
Forecast Tool
● Phase 3: modifications on sub-season; outperformed by Phase 2
● Phase 4: added October equations; Majority of time was outperformed by Phase
Different Flow Regimes
Sea Land Breeze
Introduction
● Should we add wind speed parameter to the lightning probability tool?
Data
● Data is from May to October in years 1995- 2005, 2007
● Used NLDN Flash data
Method
● Calculate candidate optimum wind speeds
● Find wind speed difference (absolute value of wind speed value minus optimum wind speed)
● Find correlations with lightning
○ For each individual wind speed point
○ Every point are discrete
Total Days of Each Regime
Wind Speed Difference vs. Actual Wind Speed
Wind Speed Difference vs. Thompson Index
Wind Speed Difference vs 1-day Persistence
Low Wind Speed Regime
Total Days of Low Wind Speed Regime
Overall Conclusion/Future Work
● We should add the wind speeds to the lightning probability tool
● Consider adding a new low speed flow regime
References
● Sea Land Breeze Figure: Essentials of Meteorology by C. Donald Ahrens
● objective-itg-fcst-phase1.PDF
● objective-itg-fcst-phase2.PDF
● objective-itg-fcst-phase3.PDF
● objective-itg-fcst-phase4.PDF
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