23QB0112 SOO.pdf

STATEMENT OF OBJECTIVES

FOR

UPGRADE OF 45 WS LIGHTNING PROBABILITY TOOL

(Use Model Predictors)

(Revised 01 August 2023)

1. Description: Extend the most recent upgrade the 45 WS lightning probability tool further by auto filling days 2-7 using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model data for an extended forecast when observed soundings are not yet available. This upgrade will use already developed logistic regression equations to create probabilities for days 2-7 (see references for more details), assuming the model data is correct (i.e., a “Perfect Prog’). Model data will be pulled from internet sources and input into the tool as model derived parameters. The first step in this task includes creating six new lightning probability databases for each forecast day 2-7. Model data will need to be downloaded and processed to create model soundings at Jacksonville, FL(JAX), Miami, FL (MFL), Tampa, FL (TBW), and Cape Canaveral (XMR). All stability parameters will be calculated for forecast days 2-7 using the XMR model sounding data. Additionally, the flow regime for each day will need to be calculated using the model data. Forecasters will input one day persistence, but model “best guess” for prior day’s lightning can be used (i.e., if the tool outputs >50% for the day prior, it will be assumed there was lightning). Once output probabilities are obtained, the same procedures to evaluate the new methods as the previous project will be followed. An analysis is to be completed comparing the output of the upgraded tool against Model Output Statistics (MOS) and National Blended Model (NBM), which will also be included for comparison purposes in the implemented tool. In addition, the new tool should pull the observed 10z sounding data for the current day from an internet source.

All inputs should include the ability for users to edit (similar to the current Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) implementation). This upgrade will be implemented as a web-based, HTML-based, or Excel-based application that is accessible to the 45 WS at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

Part-1: Download and process the forecast data to produce model soundings and stability parameters for days 2-7 and create six new lightning probability databases for each forecast day 2-7.

(‘Produce model soundings)

Part-2: Determine and document the performance of the new output for days 2-7. The output shall be compared against MOS and NBM thunderstorm probabilities. The performance comparison shall include Probability Of Detection, Probability Of False Alarm, True Skill Statistic, Heidke Skill Score, Critical Success Index, Briar Skill Score, Bias, reliability diagram, and sharpness. The performance comparison shall also include the Ratio Skill Score versus various baselines to include the present tool, monthly lighting climatology, daily lightning climatology, flow regime climatology, stratified wind speeds and 1-day persistence. (‘Analyze performance of output)

Part-3: Implement the upgraded tool as a web-based, HTML-based, or Excel-based application, if justified. The decision on whether to implement the tool shall be made by the 45 WS.

Part-4: Deliver a final report documenting the development process and results, along with a briefing to the 45 WS.

(The ‘Develop Research Plan’ is not explicitly spelled out in this SOO, but is implicit in the ‘Equations’ part.)

Period of Performance: Depends on contract award date, but will likely begin August of FY23 with operational implementation as a web-based tool, expected by May 2024.

3. Deliverables:

a. Written report documenting the development process and results.

b. Briefing of the development process and results to the 45 WS.

c. Implementation of upgraded tool on a web-based platform or final Python/R based model, if justified.

(‘Implement in as a web-based/excel tool’. .)

5. References:

Bauman, W. H, and W. C. Lambert, 2012: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape

Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV, NASA Contractor Report CR-2012-216312, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 29 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase3.pdf]

Crawford, W. C., 2010: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III, NASA Contractor Report CR-2010-216292, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 34 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase3.pdf]

Lambert, W. C., and W. P. Roeder, 2008: Update to the lightning probability forecast equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, 2nd International Lightning Meteorology Conference, Tucson, AZ, 24-25 April 2008, 16 pp.

Lambert, W. C., 2007: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II, NASA Contractor Report CR-2007-214732, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 59 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase2.pdf]

Lambert, W. C., M. Wheeler, and W. P. Roeder, 2006: Lightning probability forecasts at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. 2006 ILDC/ILMC Conferences, 26-27 April 2006

Lambert, W. C., and M. Wheeler, 2005: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Contractor Report CR-2005-212564, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 54 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/ objective-ltg-fcst-phase1.pdf]

Neumann, C. J., 1971: Thunderstorm forecasting at Cape Kennedy, Florida, utilizing multiple regression techniques, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SOS-85

Panor, J., 2020: Correlation of mean wind speed in the 45 WS lightning flow regimes to lightning probability at CCAFS/KSC, FIT Intern Report, TBD pp

Watson, L. 2022: Lightning Probability Upgrade Presentation to 45 WS, InitWeather Final Report https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase2.pdf https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/%20objective-ltg-fcst-ph