ESBD_564831_1791234380784_Annual Actuarial Pricing Report.pdf

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Actuarial Services
Solicitation number
RFQ-01-SBA-27-289
Issued by
Texas

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This is an Annual Actuarial Pricing Report related to actuarial services for the state of Texas. The document provides pricing analysis and actuarial valuations necessary for the development of premium rates and cost projections. The report details actuarial methodologies, assumptions, and calculations used to establish pricing structures for the services rendered. The scope encompasses comprehensive actuarial analyses including demographic studies, experience reviews, and financial projections to support rate-setting and pricing decisions for the contract period.

The pricing analysis contained in the report reflects actuarial assumptions, claims experience, and financial data relevant to Texas state operations. The document serves as a foundational tool for establishing accurate and sustainable pricing terms for actuarial services going forward. The report likely includes detailed breakdowns of cost components, actuarial gain and loss analyses, and recommendations for rate adjustments based on experience and projected utilization.

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The Texas A&M University System Table of Contents for Annual Actuarial Analysis - Medical, Rx & Dental Fiscal Year 2027

1. Historical Overview of Claims - Medical & Rx

2. Large Claimant Analysis

3. Development of Projected Plan Expenses - Medical & Rx

4. Development of Administrative Costs - Medical & Rx

5. Development of Funding Rates - Medical & Rx

6. Development of Projected Plan Expenses & Funding Rates - Dental

Historical Overview of Claims - Medical & Rx

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Medical Total Med PEPM Rolling 12 Months

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Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26

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Prescription Drug Total Rx PEPM Rolling 12 Months

Large Claimant Analysis Medical Services Only (excluding Prescription Drugs)

Number of Avg Paid Number of Avg Paid Range Plan Paid Claimants per Claimant Plan Paid Claimants per Claimant

$1 million+ 9,935,389 6 1,655,898 8,321,490 5 1,664,298 $500,000-$1 million 13,251,513 20 662,576 17,156,571 25 686,263 $250,000-$500,000 26,134,363 80 326,680 27,801,820 82 339,047 $100,000-$250,000 43,336,269 290 149,435 53,779,602 353 152,350 $75,000-$100,000 13,705,390 159 86,197 14,435,421 167 86,440 $50,000-$75,000 19,004,438 312 60,912 21,407,949 351 60,991 <$50,000 169,255,477 57,352 2,951 182,929,051 49,406 3,703

Total 294,622,839 58,219 5,061 325,831,904 50,389 6,466

Claimants > $50,000 125,367,361 867 144,599 142,902,853 983 145,374

Large Claim % of Total 42.6% 43.9%

Number of Avg Paid Number of Avg Paid Range Plan Paid Claimants per Claimant Plan Paid Claimants per Claimant

$1 million+ 2,747,930 2 1,373,965 2,724,733 2 1,362,366 $500,000-$1 million 6,470,804 11 588,255 5,703,280 9 633,698 $250,000-$500,000 10,471,573 32 327,237 9,582,757 28 342,241 $100,000-$250,000 21,188,623 142 149,216 22,667,546 149 152,131 $75,000-$100,000 6,656,325 78 85,338 8,170,810 95 86,009 $50,000-$75,000 9,773,741 158 61,859 12,456,896 205 60,765 <$50,000 101,136,994 43,186 2,342 108,245,888 45,004 2,405

Total 158,445,989 43,609 3,633 169,551,910 45,492 3,727

Claimants > $50,000 57,308,995 423 135,482 61,306,021 488 125,627

Large Claim % of Total 36.2% 36.2%

FY2024 FY2025

9/2024-3/2025 9/2025-3/2026

Texas A&M University System Development of Projected Plan Expenses - Medical & Rx - Current Plans Plan Year September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027

Inpatient Outpatient Professional Medicare

Advantage Medical Total Rx Total

FY2025 (9/1/2024-8/31/2025)

Subscribers 34,715 Estimated Incurred Claims 56,531,158 127,458,291 143,774,178 6,276,811 334,040,437 230,132,147 564,172,583 Per Subscriber per Month 135.70 305.97 345.13 15.07 801.87 552.43 1,354.30

FY2026 Trend (1) 7.9% 1.9% 1.8% 7.7% 3.0% 7.3% 4.7%

Projected FY2026 (9/1/2025-8/31/2026) Subscribers 35,965 Estimated Incurred Claims 63,172,708 134,598,461 151,610,393 7,006,670 356,388,233 255,788,921 612,177,154 Per Subscriber per Month 146.37 311.87 351.29 16.23 825.77 592.68 1,418.45

FY2027 Trend 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 322.3% 11.2% 10.5% 10.9% FY2027 Benefit Changes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% FY2027 Contract Changes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected FY2027 (9/1/2026-8/31/2027) Subscribers 35,991 Estimated Incurred Claims (2) 66,378,988 141,429,899 159,305,258 29,610,421 396,724,566 212,910,779 609,635,346 Per Subscriber per Month 153.69 327.47 368.85 68.56 918.57 492.97 1,411.55

Projected Administrative Costs 16,411,590 Per Subscriber per Month 38.00

Projected PPACA Fees 212,369 Per Subscriber per Month 0.49

Other Revenue/Reserve Funding (3) -40,100,000 Per Subscriber per Month -92.85

Projected FY2027 Expenses 586,159,305 Per Subscriber per Month 1,357.19

Annual Funding at Current Rates 546,954,607 Per Subscriber per Month 1,266.42

Projected Increase 7.17%

(1) Based on claims incurred through March, 2026

(2) Projected Rx rebates have been netted out of projected claims.

(3) Reserve funding including EGWP Subsidies, Wellness Initaitve Premiums, Tobacco Surcharge and expenditure of surplus funds.

Development of Administrative Costs - Medical & Rx Plan Year September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027

Network Non-Network MA Network Non-Network MA

Projected FY2026 Subscribers (1) 27,352 96 8,679 27,352 96 8,679

BCBS Administration 22.59 22.59 N/A 21.76 21.76 N/A % Change -3.7% -3.7%

Health Advocacy 15.80 15.80 N/A 14.29 14.29 N/A % Change -9.6% -9.6% N/A

Additional Services - BCBS 1.57 1.57 N/A 1.17 1.17 N/A % Change -25.5% -25.5% N/A

ESI Administration 6.55 13.82 13.82 6.55 13.82 13.82 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rx Savings Solutions 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Administrative Fees 47.81 37.71 15.12 45.07 36.88 15.12

Projected Cost 15,693,504 43,534 1,574,837 14,794,177 42,575 1,574,837 % Change -5.7% -2.2% 0.0%

Total Projected Total 17,311,875 16,411,590 % Change -5.2% $ Change -900,285

PPACA Estimated Costs Estimated Members PMPM Projected Cost

Transitional Reinsurance 0 0

PCORI 52,671 0.64 212,369

Estimated Total Cost 212,369 Impact to projected cost 0.0%

(1) Based on enrollment as of February, 2026

FY2026 FY2027

Development of Funding Rates - Medical & Rx Plan Year September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027 Scenario A - Full Increase applied equally to Employer and Employee

A&M Care 65+ Plan J Plan Total Current Enrollment Employee 14,809 6,058 155 21,022 Employee + Spouse 3,233 2,595 34 5,862 Employee + Child 4,154 16 24 4,194 Employee + Family 4,843 12 58 4,913 Total 27,039 8,681 271 35,991

Current FY2026 Medical & Rx Funding Rates Employee $1,045.06 $935.33 $1,045.06 Employee + Spouse $1,624.00 $1,451.69 $1,624.00 Employee + Child $1,447.30 $1,293.99 $1,447.30 Employee + Family $1,859.79 $1,662.17 $1,859.79 Projected Annual Funding $428,948,793 $113,688,175 $4,317,640 $546,954,607

Calculated FY2027 Medical & Rx Funding Rates (1) Employee $1,119.99 $1,002.39 $1,119.99 Employee + Spouse $1,740.44 $1,555.78 $1,740.44 Employee + Child $1,551.07 $1,386.77 $1,551.07 Employee + Family $1,993.14 $1,781.35 $1,993.14 Projected Annual Funding $459,704,355 $121,839,507 $4,627,215 $586,171,076

% Change Employee 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Employee + Spouse 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Employee + Child 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Employee + Family 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% Total 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%

(1) Calculated rates do not include any claim or surplus margin or tabacco or wellness incentives/surcharges.

Total Cost

Development of Projected Plan Expenses - Dental Plan Year September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027

Dental

FY2025 (9/1/2024-8/31/2025)

Subscribers 29,434 Estimated Incurred Claims 16,232,444 Per Subscriber per Month 45.96

FY2026 Trend 6.1%

Projected FY2026 (9/1/2025-8/31/2026) Subscribers 30,650 Estimated Incurred Claims 17,936,917 Per Subscriber per Month 48.77

FY2027 Trend 1.0% FY2027 Benefit Changes 0.0% FY2027 Contract Changes 0.0%

Projected FY2027 (9/1/2026-8/31/2027) Subscribers 30,681 Estimated Incurred Claims 18,134,510 Per Subscriber per Month 49.26

Projected Administrative Costs 1,178,150 Per Subscriber per Month 3.20

Projected FY2027 Expenses 19,312,661 Per Subscriber per Month 52.46

Annual Funding at Current Rates 19,005,418 Per Subscriber per Month 51.62

Projected Increase 1.6%

Category Enrollment FY2026 Rates FY2027 Rates % Change

Employee 16,531 $32.02 $32.53 1.6% Employee + Spouse 5,648 $64.02 $65.04 1.6% Employee + Child 3,066 $67.22 $68.30 1.6% Employee + Family 4,089 $102.42 $104.06 1.6% Total 29,334 18,189,594 18,480,102 1.6%

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