Notice of Funding Opportunity

Application due Monday, June 29, 2026

National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD) Influenza Division

Network of Influenza Modeling and Forecasting Centers Opportunity number: CDC-RFA-IP-26-0102

Contents

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 4 Basic information 5 Eligibility 6 Agency priorities 8 Program description 11

Step 2: Get Ready to Apply 47 Get registered 48 Find the application package 48 Help applying 49 Join the informational call 49

Step 3: Build Your Application 50 Application checklist 51 Application contents and format 53

Step 4: Understand Review, Selection, and Award 63 Initial review 64 Scoring process 64 Selection process 65 Award notices 66

Step 5: Submit Your Application 67 Submission requirements and deadlines 68

Step 6: Learn What Happens After Award 70 Post-award requirements and administration 71 CDC award monitoring 74 CDC’s role 74

Contacts and Support 75

Before you begin 3

Contents 2

Before you begin If you believe you are a good candidate for this funding opportunity, secure your SAM.gov and Grants.gov registrations now. If you are already registered, make sure your registrations are active and up-to-date.

SAM.gov registration (this can take several weeks) You must have an active account with SAM.gov. This includes having a Unique Entity Identifier (UEI).

See Step 2: Get Ready to Apply

Grants.gov registration (this can take several days) You must have an active Grants.gov registration. Doing so requires a Login.gov registration as well.

See Step 2: Get Ready to Apply

Apply by the application due date Applications are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, June 29, 2026.

To help you find what you need, this NOFO uses internal links. In Adobe Reader, you can go back to where you were by pressing Alt + Left Arrow (Windows) or Command + Left Arrow (Mac) on your keyboard.

Before you begin 3 https://sam.gov/ https://grants.gov/

1. Review 2. Get Ready 3. Build 4. Understand 5. Submit 6. Award Contacts

Step 1:

Review the Opportunity

In this step

Basic information 5

Eligibility 6

Agency priorities 8

Program description 11

Basic information Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)

Influenza Division

Establishing a network that improves CDC’s use of influenza modeling and forecasting.

Have questions?

Go to Contacts and Support.

Key facts

Opportunity name:

Network of Influenza Modeling and Forecasting Centers

Opportunity number:

CDC-RFA-IP-26-0102

Assistance listing:

93.185

NOFO version:

Original

Key dates

Application submission deadline:

Monday, June 29, 2026

Informational call:

June 5, 2026

Optional letter of intent deadline:

June 10, 2026

Expected award date:

September 15, 2026

Expected start date:

September 30, 2026

See Submit Your Application for other time frames that may apply to this NOFO.

Summary You’ll create a site and join a network of researchers that will improve CDC’s use of influenza modeling and forecasting to prepare for and respond to health threats due to influenza. This includes:

• Providing situational awareness.

• Informing prevention and control of influenza.

• Advancing the science of influenza forecasting and modeling.

• Increasing communication of related results to best serve our communities.

As part of the network, you’ll help inform strategies to prevent and control influenza. This includes in populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less access to and use of influenza prevention and control measures.

Funding details Funding type: Cooperative agreement

Expected awards: Up to 7

Period of performance: Five years in 12-month budget periods.

Expected total program funding over the performance period: $16,625,000

Estimated average award per applicant over the period of performance:

$2,375,000

Expected funding per applicant per 12-month budget period: $475,000

The number of awards is subject to available funds and program priorities.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 5

Eligibility Eligible applicants Only these types of organizations may apply.

• State governments.

• County governments.

• City or township governments.

• Special district governments.

• Independent school districts.

• Public and state-controlled institutions of higher education.

• Native American tribal governments (federally recognized).

• Public housing authorities and Indian housing authorities.

• Native American tribal organizations, other than federally recognized tribal governments.

• Nonprofits with 501(c)(3) status, other than institutions of higher education.

• Nonprofits without 501(c)(3) status, other than institutions of higher education.

• Nonprofit private institutions of higher education.

Responsiveness criteria We will review your application to make sure it meets these requirements.

These are the basic requirements you must meet to move forward in the competition. We won’t consider an application that:

• Is from an organization that doesn’t meet all eligibility criteria. See requirements in eligibility.

• Is submitted after the deadline.

• Includes all applications materials required by the responsiveness criteria.

See the application checklists to understand which elements of your application are part of the responsiveness criteria.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 6

Application limits You must follow these limits on the number of applications your organization can submit.

Under this NOFO, you may submit only one application under your organization’s UEI.

Cost sharing and matching funds This program has no cost-sharing requirement, meaning you do not need to contribute to the costs of this project.

If you choose to include cost-sharing funds, we won’t consider it during review. If you receive an award, we will include your voluntary commitment in the award, and you must report on the funds.

Post-award requirements

Before you apply, make sure you understand the requirements that come with an award.

See Step 6: Learn What Happens After Award for information on regulations that apply, reporting, and more.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 7

Agency priorities Required alignment with CDC priorities The recipient of this award must implement any funds awarded under this NOFO to effectuate program goals or agency priorities in accordance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Priorities when authorized (for a full description of the CDC Priorities, please follow the provided hyperlink).

Funded activities must:

• Align with CDC’s core priorities by demonstrating a commitment to gold-standard science, transparency, and evidence-based practices.

• Support CDC’s mission to protect Americans from infectious and chronic diseases, strengthen public health systems, and advance innovation in health data and infrastructure.

• Contribute to rapid, science-driven responses to health threats, promote global health leadership, and adhere to principles of integrity, accountability, and compliance with applicable laws and federal priorities.

Consistent with CDC’s values, in carrying out any project funded under this NOFO, the recipient must adhere to the following principles where consistent with the authority and scope of the award and its activities:

• A commitment to gold-standard science and ensuring trust, transparency, and credibility: To build trust and improve CDC’s ability to lead during health crises, CDC will increase transparency, be more accountable, and follow strict, gold-standard scientific practices that are open, unbiased, and based on clear evidence.

• A commitment to global leadership: With staff in 63 countries and supporting 20 more, CDC’s Global Health Center:

◦ Works to prevent disease and advance emergency response.

◦ Detects health threats early, sends response teams, trains health workers, and provides personal protective equipment, vaccines, and medicines.

◦ Test disease samples from around the world to prepare for flu and other serious outbreaks.

◦ Has strengthened systems to better protect people at home and abroad after the COVID-19 outbreak.

1. Review 2. Get Ready 3. Build 4. Understand 5. Submit 6. Award Contacts

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 8 https://www.cdc.gov/about/cdc/index.html

• A commitment to ensuring rapid, evidence-based responses to crises:

During public health emergencies, ensuring rapid, science-driven responses is critical to minimizing harm, maintaining public trust, and restoring stability. To meet this goal, CDC must continue to strengthen its emergency response systems by:

◦ Streamlining internal processes.

◦ Improving risk communication strategies.

◦ Ensuring that laboratory capacity is fully equipped and tested—capable of rapidly developing and deploying scalable diagnostics during crises.

◦ Embedding structures for real-time learning, independent after-action reviews, and the application of lessons learned will ensure that each crisis response is smarter, faster, and more effective than the last.

• A commitment to vaccine safety and efficacy research: CDC will apply “gold-standard” science to all of its vaccine safety and effectiveness research. It will make vaccine data, research methods, and related datasets publicly available through simple data use agreements to improve transparency, accountability, and trust.

• A commitment to advancing our understanding of the causes of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), and chronic disease: CDC conducts research and works with partners to better understand the causes of autism spectrum disorder, neurodevelopmental disorders, and chronic diseases. It will use new and existing data to study the rise in these conditions, including the increase in autism diagnoses from 1 in 150 to nearly 1 in 31 over the past 25 years.

• A commitment to modernizing public health infrastructure and enhancing our approach to health data: CDC will modernize public health infrastructure to create a faster, more efficient health system that can detect and respond to outbreaks in real time. This effort includes:

◦ Replacing data silos with integrated systems.

◦ Using advanced technology.

◦ Strengthening partnerships with states to ensure shared responsibility and strong local health data systems.

◦ Emphasizing collaboration across federal and state partners, resilient and adaptable systems, and accountability for funded programs to ensure they align with these priorities and federal requirements.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 9

• Conflicts of interest: CDC will not support funding programs with conflicts of interest and ensure its work is based on transparent, unbiased science.

• Immigration: CDC funds will not be used to support or encourage illegal immigration, consistent with federal law.

• Protecting life and the family: CDC funds will not be used to support elective abortions, consistent with the Hyde Amendment, and will promote maternal health, the dignity of life, and strong families.

• Ending disorder on America’s streets: CDC will prioritize evidence-based programs that reduce homelessness, drug use, and public disorder. It will support comprehensive services for people with serious mental illness and substance use disorder. CDC will not support housing first strategies, harm-reduction or safe consumption sites, or related activities. To the extent allowable by federal law, CDC intends to give priority to grantees in States and municipalities that have laws and policies that support and enforce CDC’s priorities.

• Gender ideology and protecting children [PDF]: CDC will not fund medical interventions for minors seeking gender transition and will define sex based on biological criteria.

• DEI: CDC will not support DEI initiatives based on group identity and focus on merit-based, evidence-driven approaches to improve health outcomes.

• Parental rights: CDC will support policies that protect parental authority, promote transparency, and give parents greater control over their children’s education.

The recipient must demonstrate ongoing compliance with the full description and listing of CDC values and priorities, in all programs that are authorized to advance them, through program design, implementation, reporting, and evaluation.

Failure to meaningfully align funded activities with the applicable requirements may result in corrective action, additional reporting requirements, or other enforcement actions consistent with federal grant regulations found at 2 CFR Part 200 and the terms and conditions of this award. The full CDC Priorities Statement can be found here: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Priorities.

1. Review 2. Get Ready 3. Build 4. Understand 5. Submit 6. Award Contacts

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 10 https://opa.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/2025-11/gender-dysphoria-report.pdf

Program description Background Seasonal influenza disease activity is associated with a substantial health burden in the United States. According to CDC data from past seasons, influenza results in an estimated 120,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations and 6,300 to 52,000 deaths annually. Access to and use of influenza prevention and control measures, such as seasonal influenza vaccination, varies across subpopulations of the United States. Influenza modeling and forecasting can inform best practices for influenza prevention and control in seasonal and pandemic settings and provide valuable insights into influenza activity expected over the short-term period.

CDC employs a variety of modeling and forecasting techniques to enhance its understanding and management of seasonal influenza. These efforts are crucial for translating surveillance data into actionable insights that inform public health strategies. For example, CDC collaborates with academic and industry partners to conduct forecasting challenges, which have been ongoing since the 2013-2014 influenza season. This collaboration has led to the development of robust forecasting models that provide short-term predictions of influenza activity, which can be used to inform decisions about resource allocation and improve health care preparedness. Additionally, CDC uses mathematical modeling to better understand the impact and use of influenza prevention and control measures, such as seasonal influenza vaccination and influenza antiviral treatment. This helps us better understand the benefits of these measures during influenza seasons and informs planning for future influenza seasons and pandemics.

Despite these efforts, the complexities of seasonal influenza necessitate ongoing improvements in modeling and forecasting methodologies. As the landscape of respiratory virus circulation continues to evolve and newer methods like artificial intelligence become more widely available, there is a pressing need for enhanced influenza modeling and forecasting capabilities.

Related work

• NOFO IP20-003: Network of Modeling Centers to Improve Evidence Base for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Prevention and Control

• NOFO IP19-004: Network of Forecasting Centers to Improve Forecast Accuracy and Communication for Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza

1. Review 2. Get Ready 3. Build 4. Understand 5. Submit 6. Award Contacts

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 11 https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/index.html https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/318798 https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/318798 https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/311615 https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/311615

Purpose The purpose of this NOFO is to grow a network of researchers that improves CDC’s use of influenza modeling and forecasting to:

• Provide situational awareness.

• Inform the prevention and control of influenza.

• Advance the science of influenza forecasting and modeling.

• Increase communication of related results with key partners, including state, local, and non-governmental partners.

These efforts will inform strategies to mitigate influenza morbidity and mortality. This includes populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less uptake and access to influenza prevention and control measures.

Approach Overview By growing a network of researchers, CDC will be able to use the expertise of multiple influenza modeling and forecasting partners to provide the best possible evidence for influenza planning, preparedness, and response. You will be expected to establish and maintain a network site, a group of connected researchers that also connects with CDC’s larger network.

Why this approach Studies have shown that collaborative modeling and forecasting efforts can effectively improve our understanding of the impact of interventions and situational awareness for infectious disease incidence. Aggregate models produced by combining the results of multiple contributing models regularly outperform those from an individual source, in terms of their accuracy and robustness.

What we’ll accomplish This means that together, we will be able to better estimate the impact of prevention and control measures, including in populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less access to and use of influenza prevention and control measures. These areas of research also provide prime opportunities to expand the use of novel capabilities, such as artificial intelligence.

The goal is to ensure that public health partners and communities have the best possible information and resources readily available to respond to and prepare for seasonal and pandemic influenza threats.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 12

Forecasting and modeling produced by this network will add to the existing evidence base for:

• Using forecasts for situational awareness of influenza activity.

• Informing the enhancement of influenza prevention and control strategies.

Activities and results from this network will be implemented in partnership with key public health partners, including state, local, and non-governmental partners. We need robust results to build trust with these partners and justify changes in prevention and control strategies.

Program logic model The following logic model includes the strategies and activities allowed under this NOFO.

The logic model also includes the program’s expected outcomes. Outcomes are the results that you intend to achieve. They usually show the intended direction of change, such as increase or decrease.

The asterisked ( * ) outcomes are those we expect you to achieve during the five-year period of performance. You are required to report on these outcomes.

Not all outcomes apply to all strategies. The table shows how they apply. You will use these outcomes as a guide for developing performance measures.

You are required to include:

• Strategies 1-3.

• Strategy 4 or 5.

You may choose to include the following strategies but they’re not required.

• Both Strategy 4 and Strategy 5 (only one is required).

• Strategies 6-8.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 13

Table: Strategies and outcomes

Strategies and activities Short-term outcomes Intermediate outcomes Long-term outcomes

Strategy 1.

Establish and operate a network site.

A site of influenza researchers that participate in the network is established.*

A site of researchers that advance modeling and forecasting influenza is maintained.*

Strategy 2.

Collaborate across the network.

Improved collaboration across network sites.*

Increased efficiency in sharing project findings and resources.*

Improved collaboration protocols.

Expanded and unified projects across network sites.

Improved robustness and utility of influenza modeling and forecasting results.

Strategy 3.

Document scientific findings.

Increased documentation of network results in the scientific literature and in internal reports.*

Increased access to open-source code implementing novel methodology.*

Network results are used to inform national, state/ territorial, and local public health preparedness, decision-making and response, including when there is an urgent need.

Strategy 4:

Inform prevention and control strategies with modeling.

Modeling questions are identified to assess the impact of prevention and control strategies for influenza, as a site and in collaboration with the network.*

Expedited model development to address questions, including those for emergent public health issues.*

Established robust modeling approaches to inform influenza preparedness and response.*

Modeling results are used to appropriately assess influenza prevention and control measure impacts, including in populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less uptake

Informed decision-making by federal and jurisdictional public health partners about prevention and control strategies with model results generated by the network.

Increased availability of models that can be extended during emergent public health events, like an

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 14 activities Short-term outcomes Intermediate outcomes Long-term outcomes

Increased number and quality of scenario model projection submissions to collaborative efforts for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, selected U.S.

territories, and nationally, as appropriate.* and access to influenza prevention and control measures.

Increased users of model projections results.

Increased number of multi-site modeling projects.

influenza pandemic, to inform public health action.

Strategy 5:

Produce seasonal forecasts to improve preparedness and response.

Increased availability of real-time forecasts.*

Increased number and quality of real-time influenza forecast submissions to FluSight and other forecasting collaboration repositories for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, selected U.S. territories, and nationally, as appropriate.*

Improved accuracy and robustness of forecasts by utilizing novel methods (e.g., artificial intelligence) and data sources.*

Established robust forecasting approaches to inform influenza situational awareness, preparedness and response.*

Forecast accuracy and robustness metrics are used to build trust with public health partners in forecasting results.

Areas for forecasting improvement are identified in collaboration with public health partners.*

Seasonal influenza situational awareness and decision-making for public health and other partners are informed by the forecasts.

Communications and recommendations surrounding influenza prevention and control efforts, including when there is an urgent need for additional information are informed by the forecasts.

Strategy 6:

Synthesize collaborative modeling and forecasting results.

Increased consistency and transparency of model assumptions between network

Models are verified and validated so that their outputs are robust.

Situational awareness and decision-making for federal and jurisdictional public

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 15 outcomes Long-term outcomes sites for collaborative network projects.

Improved representation of uncertainty in individual and aggregate model projections and forecasts.

Novel methods (e.g., those informed by artificial intelligence) are identified to create real-time ensembles of forecasts and/or model projections that outperform current methods.

Improved ensembling approaches.

Increased robustness of FluSight ensemble forecasts.

health partners are informed by models and forecasts with more robust aggregate modeling and forecasting results.

More robust aggregate model projections and forecasts are used to inform the public on influenza situational awareness and the use of prevention and control strategies.

Strategy 7:

Communicate modeling and forecasting results.

Communication strategies for modeling and/or forecasting results are identified and evaluated.*

New data visualization methods are developed for presenting modeling and forecasting results in the scientific literature and to the public.

New communication strategies are proposed to federal and jurisdictional public health partners for their feedback.

Improved communication of modeling results and their uncertainty for federal and jurisdictional public health partners.

Tailored forecast communication methods for the intended audience during seasonal influenza epidemics

Increased knowledge of seasonal influenza forecasting results and their use by public health and other partners for decision-making.

Increased knowledge of seasonal influenza modeling results and their use by federal and jurisdictional partners to inform recommendations surrounding influenza prevention and control strategies.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 16 outcomes Long-term outcomes or pandemic applications.

Strategy 8:

Extend seasonal influenza modeling or forecasting to novel applications, including pandemic influenza.

Extended seasonal influenza modeling and/or forecasting methods to support the response to pandemic influenza and other novel applications or public health events, to inform preparedness and prevention and control strategies.*

Identified whether there is substantive evidence for early predictors of overall influenza season severity and burden.

Communicated results of influenza models and forecast methods to federal and jurisdictional public health partners.

Increased availability of influenza models that can rapidly assess impacts of influenza prevention and control measures for novel applications, including in populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less uptake and access to influenza prevention and control measures.

Increased availability of modeling and forecasting methods that can be extended in the case of seasonal influenza epidemics and in the case of an influenza pandemic or other emergent public health events to inform public health action.

Improved modeling and forecasting preparedness of federal and jurisdictional public health partners for influenza pandemics and other public health events.

Strategies and activities This section elaborates on the strategies and activities described in the logic model and provides details about how we expect you to implement your program.

In your application, you must include:

• Strategies 1-3.

• Strategy 4 or 5.

You may include both Strategies 4 and 5, as well as 6-8, but these are not required.

Make sure you include all required activities for the strategies you propose.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 17

Strategy 1: Establish and operate a network site Required activities:

• Identify a principal investigator (PI) with extensive influenza modeling and/or forecasting experience. Proposed PIs should have the skills, knowledge, and resources necessary to coordinate the execution of proposed activities. PIs should have experience collaborating with other institutions. You can only include one PI per application.

• Organize and coordinate a network site with multiple experts in modeling, forecasting, or both. Each network site should have a multidisciplinary set of researchers with the skills, knowledge, and resources necessary to execute the proposed activities.

• Add additional details to the Data Management Plan (DMP) that you submit as part of your application and submit your updated DMP within the first six months of the award.

Strategy 2: Collaborate across the network Required activities:

• Key staff, including the PI, from each network site attend network meetings.

• Share monthly preliminary findings, related to influenza research and resources, with other network sites and CDC partners. Preliminary findings may come from work that is not yet published. Resources may include novel datasets. This may occur during scheduled conference calls or by email.

• Document lessons learned from successful and unsuccessful research and non-research efforts to inform future activities.

Strategy 3: Document scientific findings Required activities:

• Develop and publish communication products that document individual and collective findings of the network. Examples of communication products include publications, presentations, scientific posters, issue briefs, and summaries. Produce short reports, scientific articles, and other public-facing products on network projects.

• Upload methods that correspond to results in open-source code repositories. All code and tools developed under this award must be shared within the network and made publicly available to the largest extent feasible. You may use open-source code, licensing, and similar platforms. You may also consider developing no-code (i.e., user-friendly)

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 18 versions of tools for stakeholders without programming backgrounds to use.

Strategy 4: Inform prevention and control strategies with modeling Required activities (if you select this strategy):

• Generate national and, where appropriate, sub-national (e.g., state-level) model projections. Preferably, models should generate projections at multiple spatial scales and for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and selected U.S. territories as appropriate for network projects and other collaborative efforts.

• Submit results of those model projections to corresponding network repositories. This could include submitting results to repositories for network specific projects and to broader collaborative efforts such as the Flu Scenario Modeling Hub.

Optional activities:

• Identify modeling questions about influenza dynamics and utilize input from the partnering CDC team to address pertinent and timely issues of public health concern. Your activities could extend to other respiratory pathogens, in consultation with CDC.

• Develop new models or extend older models to address identified questions of public health importance. In your application, describe current modeling platforms and how these might be extended (e.g., to account for circulation of different influenza types and/or subtypes).

Modeling frameworks may include statistical components but should also be able to consider influenza virus dynamics (e.g., transmission or immunological dynamics).

• Directly consider populations at higher risk of influenza or who have less access to and use of influenza prevention and control measures, such as vaccination and antivirals. These models may be used to assess the potential impacts of changes to uptake and access of prevention and control measures on disease burden. Surveys and other behavioral monitoring activities may be used to better characterize behavioral components of modeling.

• Research activities, including related data collection activities, may be considered under this strategy.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 19

Strategy 5: Produce seasonal forecasts to improve preparedness and response Required activities (if you select this strategy):

• Generate national and, where appropriate, sub-national (e.g., state-level) forecasts. Preferably, models should generate forecasts at multiple spatial scales and for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and selected U.S. territories as appropriate for network projects and other collaborative efforts. These will include probabilistic forecasts for influenza. Targets could include:

◦ Weekly number of confirmed influenza hospital admissions.

◦ Daily percent of emergency department (ED) visits with influenza-associated diagnosis.

◦ Month of peak activity, peak intensity, or weekly probabilities of observing increases and decreases at short-term horizons.

• Submit results of those forecasts to FluSight and other corresponding network repositories. During the FluSight forecasting season (roughly October through May), you must submit real-time weekly forecasts.

Specific forecast targets and submission formats will be determined in collaboration with CDC. Forecasting timing and targets for the 2024–25 season can be found on GitHub.

Optional activities:

• Inform FluSight forecasting guidelines. Each influenza season, you may need to collaborate with representatives from CDC to update guidelines and submission formats to reflect available data sources or new forecast targets of interest.

• Generate novel forecast accuracy and robustness measures. These could be for different types of forecasts, including probabilistic quantile forecasts, bin-based forecasts, or categorical forecasts (forecasts for the upcoming probability of increase, decrease, or stable trend). Accuracy is determined by the similarity between forecasts and the (eventually) observed data. Robustness should emphasize what is most useful to federal and jurisdictional public health partners. These partners need to determine which forecasts to base decisions on and how best to account for forecast uncertainty.

• Generate new forecasts based on novel methodology (e.g., artificial intelligence) with improved accuracy and robustness compared to previously used models. You may demonstrate improved accuracy and

1. Review 2. Get Ready 3. Build 4. Understand 5. Submit 6. Award Contacts

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 20 https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub robustness of forecasts from new models by forecasting retrospective weeks of data as if they were real-time forecasts. You can compare the accuracy and robustness metrics for the retrospective forecasts with those that were submitted in real-time.

• Identify data sources that increase forecast accuracy. You may explore using additional data sources to improve forecasts. These could include other sources of clinical information, such as influenza-like-illness or test positivity if forecasting laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions or other non-clinical information sources (e.g., data from smart watches or other wearables).

• Evaluate forecast accuracy and robustness among population settings with different characteristics. Consider potential differences in influenza outcomes (for example, rural vs. urban states). This could also include states with more or less timely data available.

• Develop and maintain publicly available datasets that can be used to inform forecasting efforts. This could include versioned datasets of currently available public data.

• Activities could extend to other respiratory pathogens in consultation with CDC.

• You may also include research activities, including data collection to improve inputs for seasonal influenza forecasts, under this strategy.

Strategy 6: Synthesis of collaborative modeling and forecasting results Optional activities:

• Develop methods to harmonize assumptions across the network. To aggregate model projection results from the network, many assumptions must remain constant across the modeling groups. In this way, differences that result from a small subset of model inputs can be assessed. So, it would be helpful to create a process for:

◦ Determining which assumptions need to remain constant across modeling groups.

◦ Agreeing on formatting or reformatting parameter inputs to satisfy these requirements.

• Identify approaches to verify and validate models. These approaches should improve individual model projections, any aggregate projections from network projects, or both. Improving model verification and validation methods should increase the robustness of results.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 21

• Identify novel methods to synthesize the results of multiple scenario models. This could include:

◦ Aggregation methods for model projections.

◦ Identifying ways to aggregate the outputs of model results so that they are most useful to the scientific community and federal and jurisdictional public health partners.

• Identify novel methods to create forecast ensembles (forecasts that aggregate data from multiple models). Recent advancements have been made in applying alternative ensembling methods. Activities in this area could:

◦ Improve upon existing unweighted ensembling methods.

◦ Identify novel ways to weight contributing model forecasts to improve the overall ensemble, including the use of artificial intelligence.

Strategy 7: Communicate modeling and forecasting results Required activity (if you select this strategy):

• Identify communication approaches that improve understanding of modeling or forecasting results among federal and jurisdictional public health and other partners.

Optional activities:

• Identify communication approaches that improve the understanding of modeling results among federal and jurisdictional public health partners.

Approaches may include different ways of summarizing model outputs and calculating different metrics that could inform preparedness and the use of resources. These may also be geared toward communicating modeling methods for audiences that are less familiar with modeling.

Describe how you will identify stakeholders and incorporate feedback when developing deliverables.

• Improve data visualization for modeling or forecasting or both products.

You may tailor visualizations for particular audiences (e.g., federal and jurisdictional public health partners, the public). You may use surveys and test groups to inform user preferences and successful application of visualization methods.

• Develop and evaluate communication products that describe forecast results and related uncertainty. You may develop additional visualizations and verbal summaries to help increase the value of FluSight communication products. These improvements may be implemented on the FluSight web page or in other communication forums. You may also

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 22 tailor communication products for specific audiences, such as federal and jurisdictional public health partners or the public. To evaluate these communication products, you may use surveys, focus groups, or user tests.

• You may also include research activities under this strategy.

Strategy 8: Extend seasonal influenza modeling or forecasting to novel applications, including pandemic influenza Required activity (if you select this strategy):

• Prepare for influenza pandemics. Adapt successful approaches for modeling the impact of prevention and control measures and/or forecasting the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of an emerging influenza pandemic or other public health event. This activity requires considering adjustments that would be needed to ensure that modeling and/or forecast results are relevant during a pandemic.

Optional activities:

• Identify early predictors of overall influenza season severity and burden.

Potential predictors that you could evaluate include global influenza circulation patterns and aspects of recent influenza seasons. You may propose additional potential predictors. Evaluate the robustness of potential predictors for informing expectations for overall influenza season severity and burden in the U.S. in the upcoming season.

• Adapt seasonal influenza forecasting approaches to account for type (or subtype) specific forecasts. Many forecasting approaches consider a single type of influenza that is circulating. However, forecasts may (or may not) be improved by separately forecasting different influenza types and subtypes (e.g., A, B, AH1N1, AH3N2). If you adapt forecasting models to account for circulation of different influenza viruses, you should also evaluate their performance against approaches that consider only one type of influenza virus.

• Adapt successful approaches that are used at the state and national level so they can be used for forecasting at the substate-level. Identify robust influenza data sources at the chosen scale. Evaluate the performance of these forecasts.

• Adapt seasonal forecasting and modeling approaches for applications in other countries in consultation with CDC.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 23

• Adapt influenza forecasting and modeling approaches for applications involving other respiratory viruses in consultation with CDC.

• You may also propose research activities in this strategy.

You may propose additional strategies and activities to achieve the outcomes.

Outcomes This section includes information about the outcomes we expect you to report progress on and achieve within the performance period.

Strategy 1: Establish and operate a network site Short-term

• A site of influenza researchers that participate in the network is established.

◦ This network should consist of a single PI and a team of multidisciplinary researchers with the knowledge, skills, and abilities needed to accomplish the proposed activities.

Intermediate

• A site of researchers that advance modeling and forecasting influenza is maintained.

◦ Your site will contribute to a network consisting of all recipients of funding under this NOFO.

Strategy 2: Collaborate across networks Short-term

• Improved collaboration across network sites.

◦ Demonstrated by regular participation of key staff in network meetings.

◦ Collaborations and innovations should be shared across the entire network and documented through dissemination of cross-site collaborations, methods, and innovations.

• Increased efficiency in sharing project findings and resources.

◦ Demonstrated by routine monthly sharing of preliminary influenza modeling and forecasting research findings, datasets, and tools across network sites and CDC partners.

◦ Project findings could include progress reports on projects that are currently underway or other findings that are not yet at the stage of

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 24 publication. Shared resources could include datasets helpful for modeling or forecasting.

Strategy 3: Document scientific findings Short-term

• Increased documentation of network results in the scientific literature and in internal reports.

◦ Reports from network projects should be made available in a timely manner and shared with other network sites and CDC.

◦ Results included in reports may eventually be included in formal publications.

• Increased access to open-source code implementing novel methodology.

◦ Final versions of modeling and forecasting tools developed as part of this NOFO must be shared in public repositories (e.g., on GitHub).

Strategy 4: Inform prevention and control strategies with modeling Short-term

• Modeling questions are identified to assess the impact of prevention and control strategies for influenza, as a site and in collaboration with the network.

◦ This will be done in collaboration with CDC partners and should focus on influenza related outcomes. Specific modeling questions may involve quantifying the effects of different prevention and control strategies.

• Expedited model development to address questions, including those for emergent public health issues.

◦ Documented model development procedures and descriptions of corresponding questions. Models may need to be developed and adapted to answer pertinent public health issues.

• Increased number and quality of scenario model projection submissions to collaborative efforts for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, selected U.S. territories, and nationally, as appropriate.

◦ These collaborative efforts may include network projects specifically associated with this NOFO and submissions to broader collaborations, such as the Flu Scenario Modeling Hub.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 25

Strategy 5: Produce seasonal forecasts to improve preparedness and response Short-term

• Increased availability of real-time forecasts.

◦ Network sites should generate influenza forecasts based on currently available data. Forecasts should be actionable when they are disseminated and robust to fluctuations in the data due to initial reporting errors.

• Increased number and quality of real-time influenza forecast submissions to FluSight and other forecasting collaboration repositories for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, selected U.S. territories, and nationally, as appropriate.

◦ Network sites should submit forecasts to the FluSight collaboration repository. Other collaboration repositories may become available.

• Improved accuracy and robustness of forecasts by utilizing novel methods (e.g., artificial intelligence) and data sources.

◦ This will be done through a combination of real-time assessment and retrospective evaluation of forecasts.

Intermediate

• Established robust forecasting approaches to inform influenza situational awareness, preparedness and response.

◦ Once forecast robustness is established, these results should be used to inform situational awareness and response.

• Areas for forecasting improvement are identified in collaboration with public health partners.

◦ Collaborations with public health partners are conducted to identify areas for forecasting improvement and help ensure that forecasts are a valuable source of information for partners.

Strategy 6: Synthesis of collaborative modeling and forecasting results If you choose to include the optional activities for this strategy, you need to specify appropriate outcomes. Use the optional outcomes in the logic model as a guide.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 26

Strategy 7: Communicate modeling and forecasting results Short-term

• Communication strategies for modeling and/or forecasting results are identified and evaluated.

◦ Improved communication strategies for modeling and/or forecasting results will help ensure that results are understood and best applied to support situational awareness, preparedness, and response.

Strategy 8: Extend seasonal influenza modeling or forecasting to novel applications, including pandemic influenza Short-term

• Extended seasonal influenza modeling and/or forecasting methods to support the response to pandemic influenza and other novel applications or public health events, to inform preparedness and prevention and control strategies.

◦ Seasonal influenza modeling and/or forecasting methods provide the basis for preparing for and rapidly responding to an influenza pandemic and other public health events.

◦ Models that investigate the effects of prevention and control strategies during seasonal influenza epidemics form the foundation for models that explore potential effects of these strategies during an influenza pandemic or other public health events.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 27

Work plan You must provide a work plan for your project. The work plan connects your performance outcomes, and measures. It provides more detail on how you will measure outcomes and processes.

Your work plan for the first year of the project must be detailed. Your work plan for subsequent years can be high-level. The detailed work plan for the first year of the project must:

• Cover all activities in Strategies 1-3.

• Cover all required activities for Strategy 4 or 5.

• Identify staff providing all areas of expertise referred to in the Strategies and activities section. Indicate their roles, functions, and respective time allocations.

• Outline the level of effort provided by key personnel on projects.

Work plans should also cover any additional optional activities in Strategies 4, 5, and 6-8, that you’re proposing in your application. The activities in your workplan should be feasible and aligned with the proposed use of funds in your Budget Narrative.

Using the following sample work plan format, list the activities you will implement to achieve the NOFO strategies, activities, and outcomes. The first column should not just restate the strategies and activities in the NOFO logic model. It should reflect what you actually intend to do.

For each activity, list:

• The progress measures(s) or process measure(s) from the required performance measures that you will use to monitor progress of the strategy/activity.

• The period of performance outcomes relevant to the strategy/activity listed.

• The responsible party or position who will complete the activity.

• The expected completion date.

Post-award, CDC may collaborate with you to adjust the scope and terms of your proposed work plan and activities. Adjustment may be necessary to comply with applicable grant regulations and policies, to avoid duplicative work within the network, and to prioritize the highest priority efforts to address the objectives of this NOFO.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 28

Table: Sample format

Activities you will implement

Progress or process measures

From the data, monitoring, and evaluation section.

Relevant period of performance outcomes

From the outcomes section.

Responsible position or party

Completion date

Strategy 1:

1.

2.

3.

Strategy 2:

1.

2.

3.

Data, monitoring, and evaluation CDC strategy CDC collects and reports on indicators to measure progress toward achieving the activities and outcomes. CDC will also use results for program planning, improvement, accountability, and reporting. CDC will share the results with key parties.

CDC will work with you throughout the life of an award to ensure that all activities and expected outcomes align with your strategies and goals, and those of the U.S. government.

You should dedicate some of award funds to evaluate and monitor the performance of your project. Evaluation activities may include model or forecast performance and utility assessment. You and CDC will agree on the final funding amount, but we expect that you will dedicate approximately 5% to 10% of your project’s funding to monitoring, reporting, and evaluation activities.

Step 1: Review the Opportunity 29

Required performance measures This section describes the draft performance measures you will need to report on after award. We will likely refine the required measures for this program. If so, we will work with you and finalize them before we require you to submit any data.

Process measures This section provides examples of process measures you may use to demonstrate progress on the strategies and activities described in the logic model. These measures provide details about how you expect to implement your program. In your application, you should demonstrate your ability to assess the proposed process measures.

You should address process measures for all of the strategies and activities that you’re proposing. This should include:

• All process measures for Strategies 1-3.

• Process measures for required activities and proposed optional activities in Strategies 4 and/or 5.

• Process measures for any activities you propose for Strategies 6-8.

Strategy 1: Establish and operate a network site

• Identify a Principal Investigator (PI) with extensive influenza modeling and/or forecasting experience.

◦ Demonstrate extensive influenza modeling and/or forecasting experience for the chosen PI.

• Organize and coordinate a network site with multiple modeling and/or forecasting experts.

◦ Share an organizational chart with CDC staff showing the roles and responsibilities of key personnel…