Attachment A1 Task 5.2 (2) (1).pdf

Data and Exhibits provided with this preliminary draft are for demonstrative purposes only. Results contained within this report should not be shared outside of the Office of Evaluation and should not be relied upon for policy analysis.

Per the RMCAP Management Work Plan, we are providing you with the attached preliminary draft results in advance of our final report. These preliminary draft results are for discussion purposes only. Please note that these results are subject to

In performing this draft analysis, we relied on data and other information provided by the Federal Housing Administration

(FHA). We have not audited or verified this data and information. If the underlying data or information is inaccurate or incomplete, the results of our analysis may likewise be inaccurate or incomplete. The analysis and any conclusions provided in Summit-Milliman’s deliverables are also based on home price index data provided to Summit-Milliman by third-party sources. Summit-Milliman does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any third-party data, and Summit-Milliman

Summit-Milliman’s work is prepared solely for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Federal

Housing Administration (FHA) Risk Management & Capital Assessment Projections (RMCAP) Contract DU100H-16-C-01.

Summit-Milliman does not intend to benefit any third party recipient of its work product, even if Summit-Milliman consents to the release of its work product to such third party. These results may not be filed with the SEC or other securities regulatory bodies. In addition, references to Summit-Milliman or its estimates in communications with third parties are not authorized.

In the event Summit-Milliman consents to release its work product, it must be provided in its entirety. We recommend that any such party have its own actuary or other qualified professional review the work product to ensure that the party understands the assumptions and uncertainties inherent in our estimates. No third party recipient of Summit-Milliman’s work product should rely upon Summit-Milliman’s work product. Any reader of these work papers agrees that they shall not use Summit-

Milliman’s name, trademarks or service marks, or refer to Summit-Milliman directly or indirectly in any third party communication without Summit-Milliman’s prior written consent for each such use or release, which consent shall be given in

Actuarial estimates are subject to uncertainty from various sources, including changes in claim reporting patterns, claim settlement patterns, judicial and/or regulatory decisions, legislation, and economic conditions. Any study of future operating results involves estimates of future contingencies. While our analysis represents our best professional judgment, arrived at

Differences between our projections and actual amounts depend on the extent to which future experience conforms to the assumptions made for this analysis. It is certain that actual experience will not conform exactly to the assumptions to be used

Prepared for: Federal Housing Administration

Date: 1/16/2020

Prepared by: Summit-Milliman

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Federal Housing Administration

(FHA)

Risk Management & Capital Assessment Projections (RMCAP) Single Family Forward, HECM, and Title 1 Non-Adhoc Deliverables