MD_1015_RA_FINAL.docx

Management Directive

ISS MD 1015 RA

_/s/ Kirk Shireman___________11/16/15___ Kirk Shireman Date Manager, International Space Station Program

TO: Distribution

SUBJECT: International Space Station (ISS) Risk Assessment Policy

OFFICE OF PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY: Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA)/Program Risk Office

1.0 PURPOSE

The purpose of this Management Directive (MD) is to set guidelines for ISS organizations and supporting organizations to conduct Risk Assessments and to provide:

1. Definition for a Qualitative Risk Assessment,

2. Criteria that mandates the necessity of a Qualitative Risk Assessment for an ISS Program decision using the ISS Change Process , and

3. Generic guidelines to complete a Qualitative Risk Assessment.

This MD is intended to aid the engineer, change engineer, or decision document owner to identify the information needed for a Risk Assessment and how to perform that assessment. The Risk Assessment itself benefits management and other stakeholders in evaluating the risk and making risk-informed decisions.

Risk Assessments should be a routine part of the decision-making process. A Risk Assessment should be included with the initiation of a Change Request (CR) and presented as an integral part of the change. Including the Risk Assessment in the CR will allow evaluating organizations to read and review the Risk Assessment and identify additional risk to their organization. This Risk Assessment should also be presented to the appropriate governing forum, including the ISS Control Boards and Panels to assist in the decision-making process.

2.0 POLICY

This MD follows the requirements and policies set forth with NPR 8000.4, Risk Management Procedural Requirements; SSP 50175, ISS Risk Management Plan; and JPD 306, Establishment of the Program Risk Management System (PRMS).

3.0

SCOPE

The Risk Assessment process described herein is applicable to, and shall be implemented across, all organizations and activities within the ISS Program.

4.0 RESPONSIBILITY

It is the responsibility of each organization and the individuals within that organization to review and provide Risk Assessments to decision packages when deemed applicable as set forth by the guidelines and criteria found in this MD. It is the responsibility of the ISS Risk Manager to provide guidance and to make training readily available to personnel within each organization. It is the responsibility of each organization to ensure that Risk Assessments are performed when necessary in order to aid in the risk-informed decision making process.

5.0 BACKGROUND

5.1 Qualitative Risk Assessments

This section focuses on the Qualitative Risk Assessment. Supplemental assessments, such as quantitative assessments, are discussed later in section 5.2.

5.1.1 Defining a Risk Assessment

A Risk Assessment is a tool to identify, analyze, summarize, and communicate all applicable risks associated with plans that have various solution paths or decision alternatives. It provides a means to assign a quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to those decision alternatives. The value of risk is measured in two quantities: likelihood and consequence. In the context of this document, a Risk Assessment refers to a qualitative assessment performed by any ISS stakeholders and presented to management for direction or a decision affecting the ISS.

On a broader scale, a Risk Assessment is only one part of a complete decision-making process. Decision packages usually include a variety of parameters for each decision alternative, in addition to risk, that is necessary for the decision maker to holistically select an alternative with the greatest probability of success. More information on the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) model can be found at the following link: https://nsc.nasa.gov/documents/default-source/DefaultDocumentLibrary/teo-nasariskinformeddecisionmakinghandbook.pdf?sfvrsn=4.

NOTE: Risk Assessments are meant as an aid in decision making along with other analysis, engineering judgment, and experience. The ISS Program employs “risk-informed” decision making where risk is one of many inputs to the decision maker.

5.1.2 Importance of Risk Assessments to the ISS Program

Risk Assessments provide all of the following:

· Help in providing more concise and effective communication.

· Aid or improvement to decision-making.

· More effective and efficient use of ISS Program resources.

· An increase in the probability of meeting Program goals and objectives.

· Documentation of all considered options for the historical record – presentation of decision alternatives with a Risk Assessment analysis automatically adds it to the permanent record.

· Adherence to the risk-informed decision-making model adopted across the NASA Agency.

5.2 Supplemental Assessments

A variety of Risk Assessment tools are available to the risk assessor. This section cites some examples and ideas that may provide additional benefits in developing a more complete Risk Assessment.

5.2.1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

The ISS Program Risk Office conducts quantitative Risk Assessments using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment methodology as well. This approach can be used in support of a Risk Assessment when comparing design or operational options. It can be used to quantify negative consequences or end states for the ISS as a whole, specific ISS hardware, or a phenomenological event, such as Micrometeoroid/Orbital Debris (MM/OD) or fire. A request for a Quantitative Risk Assessment can be made by contacting the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA)/Program Risk Office.

5.2.2 Parametric Cost Estimates

The ISS Budget Office conducts quantitative trade studies for cost estimate and schedule probability using parametric modeling tools. A trade study comparing the different decision alternatives on a cost and schedule basis can provide better insight and clarity for the decision maker. A request for a Cost and Schedule trade study is made by contacting the Assessment, Cost Estimating, and Schedules Office.

5.2.3 Engineering Analysis or Simulation

Engineering analysis or simulation can include any analysis from a deterministic or probabilistic model that provides insight into the performance or capability of hardware, software, service, or process.

6.0 GUIDELINES AND/OR PROCEDURES

6.1 Criteria to Determine the Necessity/Benefit of a Risk Assessment

This section documents when Risk Assessments are mandatory and why the assessments are beneficial in the decision-making process.

6.1.1 When to Perform a Risk Assessment

A. A Risk Assessment should be included with the initiation of a CR, prior to distributing for evaluation.

· The evaluator(s) has option to concur with risks or add rationale for why they agree or disagree.

· The evaluator(s) also may include additional risks not identified in the original Risk Assessment.

B. Risk Assessments will be presented to the responsible Control Board/Panel if at least one of the following criteria are met:

· Risks are unclear or not understood by the stakeholders,

· Any tradeoff between options that involve risk consequences (safety vs. mission success vs. cost vs. schedule) in which:

· At least one consequence is scored at a 4 or above or

· 2 or more consequences are scored at 3 or above,

· Decision alternatives involved have high consequences (for example, a consequence score of 4 or 5 on the ISS Risk Scorecard),

· Major disagreement about the understanding of any of the above,

· Impacts the intent of any existing Deviation, Waiver, or Non-Compliance Report, and/or

· Poses a new safety hazard or invalidates/impacts an existing hazard control.

6.2 Guidelines to Construct a Qualitative Risk Assessment

The ISS Program Risk Office is available for guidance in constructing or evaluation of preliminary Risk Assessments. Please contact the S&MA/Program Risk Office for assistance.

6.2.1 Steps to Complete a Risk Assessment

The same guidelines should be used when presenting Risk Assessments to a responsible Control Board/Panel or to management to make risk-informed decisions.

A. Analyze each candidate decision alternative for risks. Document these risks in the format provided in the standard Board/Panel presentation template, ISS_CM_019, which can be found in the Electronic Data Management System (EDMS). Include the background and supporting analysis data required to understand each risk if not apparent by the risk statement.

1) Always include the “Do Nothing” scenario as your first option (the table and risk matrix shown below can be found as a part of the standard Board/Panel presentation template for any decision package).

2) Identify all potential risks with the “Do Nothing/Failure to Take Action” option and summarize all risks with that option in a table such as the example provided below.

3) Utilize the ISS Risk Scorecard to score all potential risks. The Scorecard includes evaluation criteria for determining the Likelihood and Consequence of the risk.

4) After determining score for each potential risk, indicate on the 5x5 Risk Matrix where each risk is relative to each other as the figure below indicates. A 5x5 Risk Matrix template is also found in the backup pages of the standard Board/Panel presentation template, ISS_CM_019. Example

CONSEQUENCES

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RISK MATRIX

RISK MATRIX

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L I K E L I H O O D L I K E L I H O O D

RISK MATRIX

RISK MATRIX

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RISK MATRIX

A2 A1

5) After completing the option summary table and scoring each potential risk on the 5x5 Risk Matrix, include the option summary table and risk matrix together on one slide of the presentation (ISS_CM_019 includes this slide in the backup pages of the template).

6) Repeat steps 1-5 for all additional options to be presented for board evaluation, decision, and approval.

B. Summarize all options:

1) Include the risks for those options in a decision table for board members to review and make a risk-informed decision.

2) A shorter summary table along with the summary risk matrix score can be provided in lieu of the larger summary table.Example

CONSEQUENCES

CONSEQUENCES

L I K E L I H O O D L I K E L I H O O D

RISK MATRIX

RISK MATRIX

CONSEQUENCES

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L I K E L I H O O D L I K E L I H O O D

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RISK MATRIX

CONSEQUENCES

CONSEQUENCES

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RISK MATRIX

A C1 B2 B1 C2

C. Once a decision alternative is approved, consideration should be given to formally documenting risk(s) associated with that alternative in the risk database – Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA).

NOTE: Cost-bearing CRs are required to have an associated risk in IRMA to ensure that the ISS cost Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) calculates all Program budget threats.

7.0 EFFECTIVITY

The instructions in this MD are in effect immediately and will be used throughout the ISS Program and supporting organizations.

MD_1015_RA_FINAL

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