StatusofTrade_inFoodStaples_in_East&SouthernAfrica2018.pdf

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Status of Trade in Food Staples in Eastern and Southern Africa

Annual Brief

December, 2018

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

In June 2014, African Heads of State and Government adopted the Malabo Declaration on

“Accelerated Africa Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and

Improved Livelihoods”. Among other things, the Declaration committed to tripling intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and services by 2025. Further, the African Heads of State and

Government committed to creating and enhancing policies and institutional conditions and support systems that would simplify and formalize current trade practices in addition to increasing and facilitating investment in markets and trade infrastructure.

Among the programms for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) are those aimed at free movement of trade in the region, including agricultural trade, to ensure and enhance regional food security. Two major strategies have been endorsed by COMESA in an effort to move from a national to a regional approach in dealing with regional food security.

One is the removal of all barriers to trade to ensure commodities move from surplus to deficit areas in the region. The second approach is the implementation of harmonized policies, procedures, and systems across the region to create a facilitative environment for conducting regional agricultural trade.

To measure whether these efforts are achieving the desired results towards increasing trade, quality and reliable data on the volume and value of trade are essential. Development of an efficient and reliable trade data system is a long-term and continuous venture. In the short run, it is useful to have a reliable and consistent method to track and report on the status of trade in food staples in the region. In this regard, COMESA, the East African Community (EAC), the

Alliance for Commodity Trade Eastern and Southern Africa (ACTESA) and other agricultural trade stakeholders with technical support from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge

Support System East and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA) developed a methodology for tracking and reporting year-to-year changes in volume and value of intra-regional trade for selected food staples among selected countries in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region beginning in

2009.

Over the period 2010 - 2016, ReSAKSS-ECA worked with COMESA and national statistics offices to improve the quality and timeliness of formal trade data.

This brief is the second to be produced by COMESA and the nineth in a series of annual briefs originally prepared by ReSAKSS-ECA since 2009. It provides an update on the status of trade in food staples in the ESA region for 2017 both in value (USD) and volume (metric tonnes [MT]) terms. The indicator covers trade in selected key food staples categorized into five commodity groups:

i. Grains and pulses (maize grain, rice grain, beans and pulses)

ii. Processed flours (maize and wheat flour)

iii. Roots and tubers (cassava)

iv. Vegetables (onions and tomatoes), and

v. Livestock and its products (live bovine animals, milk and cream, bovine meat, and fish and crustaceans)

The indicator covers 11 countries in ESA: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

Figure 1 below gives a snapshot of the trade in volume terms for the ESA region, 2016 to

2017, both formal and Small Scale Cross-Border (SSCB) components of trade.

Figure 1: Overview of patterns of volume export trade for food staples in ESA region (2016–2017), MT

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, UBOS and NISR, 2017.

Figure 1 above depicts volume of total trade in food staples, both formal and SSCBT, across the ESA region over the period 2016 - 2017. Total trade increased by 55% from 1,140,503 MT in 2016 to 1,770,392 MT in 2017. Both formal and SSCB trade registered positive growths over the same period in volume terms of 48% and 99% respectively. The almost double increase in volume terms for the SSCBT can be attributed mainly to increased traded volumes in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Burundi.

Simmilarly in value terms, total trade increased from USD 502 million in 2016 to USD 762 million in 2017, representing an increase of 52% (see Figure 2). Both formal and SSCB trade

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Formal Informal Total

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M e tr ic

T o n s) registered positive growths of 50% and 57% respectively in values terms over the period 2016 –

2017.

Figure 2: Overview of patterns of value export trade for food staple in ESA region

(2016–2017), ‘000 USD

Source: Authors’ Computation using data from COMSTAT, Tanzania Revenue Authority, and UBOS

1.2 Data sources

The data used to prepare this report were obtained from several sources as described in the following sub-sections.

i. COMSTAT

Formal trade data used was obtained from the COMSTAT database, which is also available on the COMSTAT data portal (www.comstat.comesa.int). The formal data is sent to COMSTAT by the national statistics offices of COMESA Member States.

The portal has been augmented and now has a sub-portal that reports small scale cross-border trade (SSCBT) data. Available SSCBT on the portal is for Uganda and Rwanda only.

ii. Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA)

Tanzania is not a COMESA Member State, but it is one of the countries included in the trade indicator due to its geographic proximity and close trade relations with many countries in the

ESA region. Tanzania is also part of the ESA region. Formal trade data for Tanzania was obtained directly from the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), however, due to identified data quality issues especially regarding volume data, Tanzania data was not used in the computations for this report. However, for inclusiveness and to show Tanzania’s contribution, Tanznia is

100,000

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Formal Informal Total

V al u e

'0

U

SD

http://www.comstat.comesa.int/ reported as a trading partner for the reporting countries and so is South Sudan whose trade data is not available at all.

iii. Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS)

Uganda has over the years developed a system for collecting and reporting SSCBT data between herself and her neighbours. The data collected has both volumes and values of trade between Uganda and her neighbours: Burundi, DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan and

Tanzania.

iv. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR)

Just like UBOS, the NISR also collects and reports statistics on SSCBT data. NISR together with the Rwanda Central Bank (BNR) conducts surveys that collect data on SSCBT on a daily basis.

The data that is collected has volumes, values and sex of trader among other variables. SSCBT data for Rwanda used in this report was obtained directly from NISR.

1.3 Methodological approach

A large amount of SSCBT occurs across the porous borders of the region and is not captured in official statistics. Only a portion of this trade is currently captured because most national data collection systems do not record this trade. In computing the indicator, substantial effort is made to ensure that all available data, from both formal and SSCBT sources, are included in the trade indicators. Furthermore, the use of the base year, same commodities, and same data sources ensures that the indicators consistently track the same trade flows.

The change in value and volume between any two years, say 2016 and 2017, is computed as follows:

100* 2016)(

2016)(2017)( invalueorvolume invalueorvolumeinvalueorvolume valuevolumeinchange

Computation of the changes in trade only considers intra-regional formal and SSCB trade, that is, exports/imports between and among the 11 countries and only for the selected food staples.

It does not include trade occurring between the 11 countries and the rest of the world. The data include both the volume traded in MT and the value of trade in US dollars. For SSCBT data, both NISR and UBOS report in both volume and value terms.

The countries of focus for this brief are the 11 ESA countries i.e. Burundi, DRC, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

2.0 TRADE PERFORMANCE IN FOOD STAPLES IN ESA

2.1 An overview of formal trade in 2017

2.1.1 Commodity composition of formal trade

Like the previous years, grains and pulses were still the most traded commodities in the ESA region in 2017. In volume terms, the grains and pulses accounted for 78% of the total formal trade, up from a share of 67% recorded in 2016. Processed maize, wheat and soya flours accounted for 10% of the volume traded, down from shares of 20% recorded in 2016. Roots and tubers accounted for just 1% of the total formal volume of trad in 2017, maintaining the share recorded in 2016 (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Composition of formal trade in volume terms in ESA region in 2017

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, 2018

In value terms, grains and pulses accounted for 63% of total formal trade in 2017, depicting an increase from 57% recorded in 2016. The share of livestock/products remained at 24% just like in 2016 while the share of processed flour dropped from 16% in 2016 to 11% in 2017. Shares of roots and tubers and vegetables remained almost the same (See Figure 4).

Grain & Pulses 78%

Livestock/ Products

8%

Processed Flour 10%

Roots & Tubers 1%

Vegetables 3%

Figure 4: Composition of formal trade in value terms in ESA region in 2017

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT

Further analysis of the traded grains and pulses depicts that in value terms, maize grain contributed 52% of the total value of grains and pulses traded in the ESA region in 2017, slightly higher than 51% recorded in 2016. The shares of rice grain and dry legumes & pulses also remained almost the same (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Composition of grains and pulses formally traded among selected countries in

ESA in 2017

63%

Livestock/Products 24%

Processed Flour 11%

Roots & Tubers 0%

Vegetables 2%

Dry Legume & pulses 39%

Maize grain 52%

Rice grain 9%

Formal trade in live bovine animals is minimal in ESA. However, reported number of bovine animals traded in the region by destination sharply rose in 2014 in Congo DR to levels of almost 2 million animals (Figure 6). Apart from Congo DR, other notable destination countries of these animals in the ESA region are Burundi, South Sudan, Tanzania and Djibouti.

Figure 6: Number of bovine animals formally traded among selected countries in ESA by destination, 2013 –2017

2.1.2 Volume and value of formal trade

The total volume of formal trade in the selected food staples for the ESA region in 2017 stood at 1,444,858 MT (Table 1), an increase of 48% from levels of 2016 while the value of the same commodities in 2017 was worth USD 553 Million (Table 2), representing an increase of 50% from levels of the previous year. Tables 1 and 2 provide a summary of total formal exports in the region by destination while Annexes 2 and 3 show data on the corresponding exports by exporting country in both volume and value terms, respectively.

In volume terms, grains and pulses were the major traded commodity group accounting for

78% of total formal intra-regional trade in ESA in 2017. Similar to volume data, grains and pulses were the leading exports in value terms, accounting for 63% of total formal exports for the year 2017. In addition, among the grains and pulses group, trade in maize grain accounted for more than half of the total grains and pulses in both value and volume terms in 2017. This is a clear testimony for the importance of maize grain as a major staple food (especially maize flour) in the ESA region.

The major export destination of grains and pulses in 2017 was Kenya. Other notable destinations of the food staples in the region were DR Congo, Tanzania, Rwanda and South

Sudan (see Tables 1 and 2). During the same period of 2017, the major exporters of the

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

N U m b e r o f

B o vi n e A n im al s

Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda selected food staples were Uganda, Zambia and Rwanda (See Annexes 2 and 3). In 2017, Uganda alone exported 54% of the total grains and pulses traded in the region in volume terms.

This was however a drop from levels of 67% recorded in 2016. Uganda still was the leading exporter of Livestock/Products followed by Kenya in 2017. Rwanda however was the leading exporter of processed flour in 2017. Ethiopia was again the leading exporter of vegetables in volume terms for the year 2017 just like in 2016, (see Annex 2). Exports of food staples by

DR Congo, Djibouti, Burundi and Malawi in 2017 were insignificant.

Table 1: Formal intra-ESA Staple Food Exports by Destination, 2017 (MT)

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 38,557.77 69,423.28 3,054.48 10,211.58 718,312.03 19,901.79 82,724.06 51,439.61 111,386.02 17,720.68 3,125.70 1,125,856.99

Dry Legume & pulses 1,066.38 12,514.81 2,721.13 1.81 315,043.91 262.27 4,233.31 16,467.10 23,425.20 13,728.73 2,303.50 391,768.15

Maize grain 37,151.52 4,333.96

10,209.78 403,243.12 19,639.52 77,313.16 34,758.77 87,956.57 2,782.83 704.20 678,093.42

Rice grain 339.88 52,574.51 333.35

25.00

1,177.59 213.74 4.25 1,209.12 118.00 55,995.43

Livestock/Products 1,031.10 3,912.19 43.75 926.09 66,684.84 147.78 3,235.16 16,130.80 8,968.99 21,128.21 71.25 122,280.17

Bovine meat

610.97 0.01 1.26 1.48 0.55 4.83 316.01 536.33 0.09

1,471.54

Milk and cream 984.77 1,853.91 43.74 923.83 66,358.92 89.23 2,736.18 15,804.17 8,414.15 20,851.11 71.25 118,131.27

Fish 46.33 1,447.31

1.00 324.44 58.00 494.16 10.61 18.50 277.02

2,677.36

Processed Flour 2,592.85 80,640.28 - 10.00 4,726.00 - 20,284.75 24,509.17 5,095.40 425.09 0.18 138,283.71

Maize flour 2,592.15 22,274.89

39.00

18,765.26 21,139.97 1,025.40 203.07

66,039.75

Wheat flour

57,978.51

270.00

94.50 2,542.02 126.00 212.52

61,223.55

Soya Flour 0.70 386.88

10.00 4,417.00

1,425.00 827.17 3,944.00 9.50 0.18 11,020.42

Roots & Tubers 789.77 36.00 - - 1,232.82 - 12,708.76 264.30 - - - 15,031.65

Cassava 789.77 36.00

1,232.82

12,708.76 264.30

15,031.65

Vegetables 189.65 229.50 23,906.45 - 15,140.22 25.45 163.92 1,726.28 4.24 2,020.48 - 43,406.19

Onions 4.90 187.00 14,846.68

0.10

80.00 1,038.66 0.21 1,838.95

17,996.50

Tomatoes 184.75 42.50 9,059.77

15,140.12 25.45 83.92 687.62 4.03 181.53

25,409.69

Grand Total 43,161.15 154,241.25 27,004.68 11,147.68 806,095.91 20,075.01 119,116.65 94,070.16 125,454.64 41,294.46 3,197.13 1,444,858.72

Source: Computation based on data obtained from COMSTAT, 2018

Table 2: Formal intra-ESA staple food exports by destination, 2017 ('000 US$)

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 9,706.80 37,465.80 1,808.78 1,458.06 170,998.44 7,053.37 25,223.16 29,466.41 52,392.04 9,208.49 4,313.56 349,094.91

Dry Legume & pulses 426.04 6,355.31 1,781.67 16.12 87,753.04 137.45 2,293.88 13,784.14 13,239.08 6,982.44 3,133.67 135,902.84

Maize grain 9,155.86 1,180.71

1,441.94 83,232.30 6,915.92 22,143.06 15,608.30 39,152.34 1,873.79 1,103.29 181,807.52

Rice grain 124.90 29,929.78 27.11

13.10

786.21 73.97 0.62 352.25 76.61 31,384.55

Livestock/Products 894.83 17,948.80 374.79 880.91 66,039.35 232.22 3,292.48 13,679.36 12,060.29 15,167.07 84.41 130,654.50

2,128.21 0.19 12.17 6.15 5.02 47.75 1,373.42 1,908.14 0.02

5,481.08

Live bovine animals 7.27 6,776.23

9.91

0.78

6,794.20

Milk and cream 879.37 7,693.91 374.60 867.96 65,154.90 194.44 2,593.69 12,262.10 10,144.14 14,189.93 84.41 114,439.44

Fish 8.19 1,350.44

0.78 868.39 32.76 651.05 43.84 8.01 976.34

3,939.79

Processed Flour 534.40 41,581.63 - 7.32 2,026.29 - 4,751.93 9,498.48 2,071.25 170.42 0.22 60,641.95

Maize flour 534.11 6,533.57

23.71

3,991.26 7,529.19 199.06 31.03

18,841.94

Wheat flour

34,849.46

136.19

66.82 1,068.49 67.82 137.83

36,326.61

Soya Flour 0.30 198.60

7.32 1,866.39

693.85 900.80 1,804.36 1.56 0.22 5,473.41

Roots & Tubers 135.34 9.01 - - 215.79 - 2,946.44 69.09 - - - 3,375.67

Cassava 135.34 9.01

215.79

2,946.44 69.09

3,375.67

Vegetables 210.71 198.00 4,229.68 - 3,745.18 43.60 63.53 540.40 1.61 341.27 - 9,373.98

Onions 1.08 162.51 2,538.42

0.10

10.71 289.26 0.14 229.28

3,231.50

Tomatoes 209.63 35.49 1,691.27

3,745.08 43.60 52.82 251.14 1.47 111.99

6,142.49

Grand Total 11,482.08 97,203.25 6,413.25 2,346.29 243,025.06 7,329.19 36,277.53 53,253.74 66,525.19 24,887.25 4,398.20 553,141.02

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, 2018

2.1.3 Changes in formal trade (2016 - 2017)

Tables 3 and 4 summarize the changes in volume and value of formal trade for the ESA region for the period 2016 and 2017. The tables show overall ESA regional formal trade changes in addition to changes for individual commodity categories by country of destination. The volume of formal trade increased from 977,103 MT in 2016 to 1,444,858 MT in 2017. This represented an increase of 48% between the two time periods. Likewise, the value of trade also increased by 51% from levels of USD 363 million in 2016 to USD 546 million in 2017.

Table 3: Formal intra-ESA staple food exports by destination and the percentage change (2016 – 2017) (MT)

Commodity Category Year Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 2016 13,199.97 54,708.83 1,895.79 51.90 361,884.62 76,831.35 72,689.04 34,248.40 28,908.86 5,604.49 2,183.13 652,206.38

2017 38,557.77 69,423.28 3,054.48 10,211.58 718,312.03 19,901.79 82,724.06 51,439.61 111,386.02 17,720.68 3,125.70 1,125,856.99

% change 192% 27% 61% 19574% 98% -74% 14% 50% 285% 216% 43% 73%

Livestock/Products 2016 1,567.88 6,112.13 8.92 4,012.64 37,727.73 151.79 3,826.20 16,116.55 6,223.58 14,106.58 92.51 89,946.52

2017 1,031.10 3,912.19 43.75 926.09 66,684.84 147.78 3,235.16 16,130.80 8,968.99 21,128.21 71.25 122,280.17

% change -34% -36% 391% -77% 77% -3% -15% 0% 44% 50% -23% 36%

Processed Flour 2016 3,800.83 64,683.66

73.56 3,698.50 250.00 9,347.26 100,000.71 10,129.05 223.93 300.00 192,507.49

2017 2,592.85 80,640.28

10.00 4,726.00

20,284.75 24,509.17 5,095.40 425.09 0.18 138,283.71

% change -32% 25%

-86% 28% -100% 117% -75% -50% 90% -100% -28%

Roots & Tubers 2016 1,298.50 63.00

429.90

8,701.57 705.75

11,198.72

2017 789.77 36.00

1,232.82

12,708.76 264.30

15,031.65

% change -39% -43%

187%

46% -63%

34%

Vegetables 2016 4.66 273.56 23,371.49

4,812.25

294.67 1,480.33 83.09 924.64 0.08 31,244.78

2017 189.65 229.50 23,906.45

15,140.22 25.45 163.92 1,726.28 4.24 2,020.48

43,406.19

% change 3971% -16% 2%

215%

-44% 17% -95% 119% -100% 39%

Total 2016 19,871.84 125,841.19 25,276.19 4,138.11 408,553.00 77,233.15 94,858.75 152,551.74 45,344.59 20,859.64 2,575.72 977,103.89

2017 43,161.15 154,241.25 27,004.68 11,147.68 806,095.91 20,075.01 119,116.65 94,070.16 125,454.64 41,294.46 3,197.13 1,444,858.72

% change 117% 23% 7% 169% 97% -74% 26% -38% 177% 98% 24% 48%

Source: Computations based on data obtained from COMSTAT, 2018

Table 4: Formal intra-ESA staple food exports by destination and percentage change (2016 – 2017), ‘000 USD

Commodity Category

Year Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan

Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 2016 4,875.12 31,188.07 1,394.87 45.74 78,287.39 29,372.36 23,987.89 15,891.43 19,825.75 3,349.57 1,789.12 210,007.30

2017 9,706.80 37,465.80 1,808.78 1,458.06 170,998.44 7,053.37 25,223.16 29,466.41 52,392.04 9,208.49 4,313.56 349,094.91

% change 99% 20% 30% 3088% 118% -76% 5% 85% 164% 175% 141% 66%

Livestock/Products 2016 824.45 9,066.53 75.70 1,873.33 39,114.84 156.66 5,141.18 10,808.76 8,550.10 7,752.41 115.93 83,479.88

2017 887.56 11,172.57 374.79 880.91 66,029.43 232.22 3,292.48 13,679.36 12,060.29 15,166.29 84.41 123,860.31

% change 8% 23% 395% -53% 69% 48% -36% 27% 41% 96% -27% 48%

Processed Flour 2016 1,007.71 36,327.53

27.69 2,160.65 89.28 3,168.75 10,622.49 6,076.18 153.48 138.67 59,772.41

2017 534.40 41,581.63

7.32 2,026.29

4,751.93 9,498.48 2,071.25 170.42 0.22 60,641.95

% change -47% -13%

278% 7%

-33% 12% 193% -10% 62260% -1%

Roots & Tubers 2016 176.34 25.19

108.35

1,339.27 127.19

1,776.34

2017 135.34 9.01

215.79

2,946.44 69.09

3,375.67

% change -23% -64%

99%

120% -46%

90%

Vegetables 2016 0.42 158.44 4,566.01

2,301.30

100.46 578.67 5.13 162.25 0.22 7,872.91

2017 210.71 198.00 4,229.68

3,745.18 43.60 63.53 540.40 1.61 341.27

9,373.98

% change 50278% 25% -7%

63%

-37% -7% -69% 110% -100% 19%

Total 2016 6,884.05 76,765.75 6,036.58 1,946.75 121,972.52 29,618.30 33,737.54 38,028.55 34,457.15 11,417.71 2,043.94 362,908.83

2017 11,474.81 90,427.02 6,413.25 2,346.29 243,015.14 7,329.19 36,277.53 53,253.74 66,525.19 24,886.47 4,398.20 546,346.82

% change 67% 18% 6% 21% 99% -75% 8% 40% 93% 118% 115% 51%

Source: Authors’ computation based on data obtained from COMSTAT

2.2 An overview of Small ScaleCross-Border Trade (SSCBT) in 2017

2.2.1 Commodity composition of SSCBT

In the case of SSCBT in the ESA region, we analyse trade reported by both Rwanda (NISR) and

Uganda (UBOS) the only countries in the region that carry out cross border surveys/censuses on a regular basis. Annex 1 shows the border points for SSCBT monitored by UBOS. Border points monitored by NISR were not readily available.

In volume terms, grains and pulses were still the most small scale cross-border traded commodities in the ESA region in 2017, accounting for 74% of reported total SSCBT, as depicted in Figure 7 below. This represented an increase from a share of 53% recorded the previous year.

Figure 7: Main staple food commodities traded across selected countries in ESA in

2017 by volume

Source: Computation bsed on data from UBOS and NISR, 2018

It can be observed that in terms of both volumes and values, the composition of SSCBT is almost similar to that of formal trade, especially with respect to the dominance of grains and pulses see Figure 8 below.

Grains and Pulses 74%

Livestock/ Products

10%

Processed Flour 11%

Roots & Tubers 1%

4%

Figure 8: Main staple food commodities traded across selected countries in ESA in

2017 by value

Source: Computation based on data from UBOS and NISR, 2018

2.2.2 SSCBT volumes and values

The total volume of SSCBT recorded in 2017 was 325,534 MT, as shown in Table 5 below and this represented an increase of almost 100% from levels registered in 2016. During the same year, the value of SSCBT recorded for the two reporting countries in the ESA region viz

Rwanda and Uganda was USD 209 Million (see Table 6), up from USD 133 Million recorded in

2016 and representing an increase of 57%. Grains and pulses were the main commodities traded uder SSCBT just like in the case of formal trade in the ESA region in 2017 accounting for

74% of total SSCBT in volume terms, up from a share of 53% registered in 2016. Among the grains and pulses group, maize grain accounted for 64% while dry legumes and pulses accounted for 36% of the SSCBT in 2017.

The major destinations of the SSCB traded food staples in 2017 were Kenya, Tanzania and DR

Congo (see Table 5 below). In 2017, Kenya imported 110,939 MT of food staples and these accounted for 34% of the total SSCB traded commodities. Tanzania imported 84,006 MT (26%) and DR Congo 76,081 MT (23%).

The bulk of imported commodities by Kenya was maize grain (68,635 MT) accounting for 62% of her total imports followed by dry legumes and pulses (34,167 MT) accounting for 31% of her imports. The bulk of Tanzania’s imports were grains and this accounted for 77% of her total

Grains and Pulses 51%

Livestock/ Products

35%

Processed Flour 10%

Roots & Tubers 1% imports in 2017. On the other hand, the bulk of DR Congo’s imports were dry legumes and pulses and these accounted for 24% of her total SSCBT imports in 2017.

Table 5: Informal intra-ESA staple food exports by destination, 2017 (MT)

Product Burundi Congo DR Kenya Rwanda South Sudan

Tanzania Uganda Total

Grains and Pulses 1,884.60 23,716.09 102,810.01 10,357.69 9,766.98 81,901.18 9,038.12 239,474.66

Dry Legume & pulses

857.78 18,552.70 34,166.52 1,454.65 5,367.96 17,543.87 8,171.90 86,115.39

Maize grain 987.43 4,542.50 68,635.00 8,890.34 4,355.42 64,349.17 479.39 152,239.25

Rice grain 39.38 620.89 8.49 12.70 43.60 8.13 386.83 1,120.03

Livestock/Products 302.67 29,720.56 3,358.88 487.40 255.10 57.22 32.72 34,214.55

Bovine meat 2.31 4,061.26 48.52 3.89 2.65 3.89 0.34 4,122.87

Milk and cream 183.96 8,696.82 341.80 154.75 184.93 39.38 31.59 9,633.22

Fish 116.40 16,962.48 2,968.57 328.75 67.53 13.95 0.79 20,458.47

Processed Flour 442.98 16,422.87 767.07 6,372.65 10,678.69 1,956.95 49.86 36,691.07

Maize flour 377.30 12,644.45 765.10 6,349.63 10,606.87 1,955.58 24.26 32,723.19

Wheat flour 65.68 3,749.40 1.97 20.22 71.12 1.36 25.60 3,935.34

Soya Flour - 29.02 - 2.81 0.70 0.01 - 32.54

Roots & Tubers 23.87 633.56 1,114.47 641.01 300.60 7.62 1.01 2,722.15

Cassava 23.87 633.56 1,114.47 641.01 300.60 7.62 1.01 2,722.15

Vegetables 66.33 5,588.21 2,888.21 188.75 3,412.66 83.22 203.71 12,431.09

Onions 34.82 1,530.57 1,081.75 97.48 2,104.66 14.00 86.49 4,949.78

Tomatoes 31.50 4,057.64 1,806.46 91.27 1,307.99 69.21 117.22 7,481.30

Total 2,720.45 76,081.28 110,938.64 18,047.51 24,414.03 84,006.19 9,325.42 325,533.52 Source: Computation based on data from NISR and UBOS, 2018

Table 6: Informal intra-ESA staple food exports by destination, 2017 (USD ’000)

Product Burundi Congo DR Kenya Rwanda South Sudan

Tanzania Uganda Total

Grains and Pulses 811.71 12,672.42 48,284.40 3,681.11 6,107.60 30,112.56 5,719.87 107,389.67

Dry Legume & pulses 442.06 10,825.53 24,858.61 784.40 4,428.70 10,151.46 5,199.90 56,690.66

Maize grain 336.10 1,352.43 23,417.68 2,885.06 1,643.50 19,954.33 167.82 49,756.91

Rice grain 33.56 494.46 8.11 11.65 35.40 6.76 352.15 942.10

Livestock/Products 356.66 62,276.04 7,394.12 971.51 305.17 1,521.19 12.52 72,837.21

Bovine meat 5.47 9,260.60 121.82 10.23 8.14 7.65 0.60 9,414.51

Milk and cream 160.11 2,787.06 294.22 135.71 169.72 33.73 8.40 3,588.94

Fish 191.08 50,228.38 6,978.09 825.58 127.31 1,479.81 3.52 59,833.76

Processed Flour 265.95 10,002.07 451.01 3,332.34 6,435.02 1,051.96 30.34 21,568.69

Maize flour 213.54 7,448.14 449.67 3,313.43 6,385.28 1,051.04 14.03 18,875.13

Wheat flour 52.41 2,515.87 1.34 14.43 48.38 0.91 16.31 2,649.66

Soya Flour - 38.05 - 4.48 1.36 0.01 - 43.91

Roots & Tubers 6.36 216.97 397.39 211.43 82.02 2.52 0.30 917.00

Cassava 6.36 216.97 397.39 211.43 82.02 2.52 0.30 917.00

Vegetables 23.18 2,857.27 1,114.59 93.32 2,322.06 36.84 61.40 6,508.67

Onions 15.34 811.53 392.22 54.66 1,572.78 6.62 31.80 2,884.95

Tomatoes 7.84 2,045.74 722.37 38.67 749.28 30.22 29.60 3,623.72

Total 1,463.86 88,024.77 57,641.52 8,289.73 15,251.88 32,725.06 5,824.43 209,221.24

Source: Computation based on data from NISR and UBOS, 2018

2.2.3 Changes in SSCBT (2016–2017)

Changes in volume and value of both formal and SSCBT for the period 2016 – 2017 are summarized in Annex 4 of this report. During this period, the volumes of SSCBT increased by

99% from 163,483 MT in 2016 to 325.533 MT in 2017. The value of SSCBT also increased by

57% from USD 133 million in 2016 to USD 209 million in 2017. In the ESA region, only NISR and UBOS do conduct regular censuses/surveys on SSCB trade. Both countries, Rwanda and

Uganda, report trade between themselves and their neighbours only implying that some of the the SSCBT in the region is not captured.

2.3 An overview of total traded food staples in the ESA region

In this section, we provide the overall trade patterns in 2017 by summing up available SSCBT and formal trade in the ESA region.

2.3.1 Main commodities traded in ESA during 2017

When we combine both formal and SSCBT for the ESA region in 2017, it is still evident that grains and pulses were the most traded commodities in both volume and value terms, accounting for 77% and 60% of total trade respectively (see Figures 9 and 10 below). This trend is similar to that reported for formal and SSCBT trade, separately, in earlier sections of this report.

Figure 9: Composition of total cross border trade in volume terms for selected commodities in ESA, 2017

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, NISR abd UBOS, 2018

77%

Livestock/Prod ucts 9%

Processed Flour 10%

Roots & Tubers 1%

Figure 10: Composition of total cross-border trade in value terms of selected commodities in ESA, 2017

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, NISR abd UBOS, 2018

Figure 11 below shows the composition of total commodities traded in the grains and pulses commodity group, both volume and value for the period 2017 in the ESA region. From the figure, it is still evident that the share of maize grains is again biger, 61% and 51% for volume and value respectively in the group while rice grains account for the least shares of below 10% in both cases.

Figure 11: Composition of traded Grains and Pulses, Volumes and Values, 2017

Source: Computations based on data from COMSTAT, NISR and UBOS, 2018

60%

Livestock/Prod ucts 27%

Processed Flour 11%

Roots & Tubers 0%

Vegetables 2%

Dry Legume & pulses

35%

Maize grain 61%

Rice grain 4%

Volumes Dry Legume & pulses

42%

Maize grain 51%

Rice grain 7%

Values

2.3.2 Total trade in volume and value terms for the ESA region

The total volume of trade for the ESA region in 2017 was 1,770,392 MT while the total value of traded commodities was USD 762 million (see Annexes 5 and 6 respectively).

2.3.3 Changes in total trade (2016–2017)

Volume of total trade for selected food staples in the ESA region increased by 55% from

1,140,504 MT in 2016 to 1,770,392 MT in 2017, (see Annex 4). In 2016, the value of total traded food staples within the ESA region increased by 52% from USD 501.8 million in 2016 to

USD 762.4 million in 2017 (see Annex 4). Like mentioned before, grains and pulses were the most traded food staples in the ESA region for the period 2017. The main importer of these grains and pulses in volume terms was Kenya that imported these commodities to the tune of

821,122 MT accounting for 60% of the traded grains and pulses in 2017 (see Annex 5).

Total trade in value terms tracks the trends of both formal and SSCB trade. The total traded values increased by about 52% between 2016 and 2017.

3.0 TRADE DATA QUALITY

In 2009 when the trade data indicator tracking work begun with ReSAKSS, there were glaring data quality issues including large data discrepancies (between reported exports and imports) and missing data among the various data sources. Over the years, COMESA has been working with other stakeholders including ReSAKSS, national statistical agencies and customs administrations in the region to improve the quality of trade data. The quality has been gradually improving over time and efforts to further improve it are still on going. In this section, we highlight some evidence in support of improvements in the quality of trade data.

3.1 Unit price analysis

In this section we analyse the unit prices of the traded commodities in 2017 (see Table 7).

Unit prices from the total trade data are computed by dividing the value of total trade in USD by the volume of total trade in kilogrammes. Ideally, the unit prices should be within reasonable range of the observed price of the traded commodities. The results (Table 7) show general consistencies in the trade data with a few outlier exeptions that need to be investigated. The unit prices of most of the traded staple food commodities among selected countries in the ESA region is less than US$1/kg with the exception of livestock products (bovine meat, milk and cream and fish) whose prices are in some cases higher than US$ 1/kg and where we see a high unit value of 45.85 in Tanzania for fish!

Table 7: Unit prices of food staples for 2017, US$/kg

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan

Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Dry Legume & pulses 0.45 0.55 0.65 8.93 0.32 0.52 0.54 0.83 0.57 0.56 1.36

Maize grain 0.25 0.29

0.14 0.23 0.35 0.29 0.44 0.39 0.63 1.57

Rice grain 0.42 0.57 0.08

0.63

0.67 0.43 0.60 0.44 0.65

Bovine meat 2.37 2.44 21.15 9.66 2.56 9.13 6.64 4.34 3.55 1.45

Milk and cream 0.89 0.99 8.56 0.94 0.98 2.18 0.94 0.78 1.20 0.68 1.18

Fish 1.22 2.80

0.78 2.38 0.56 1.79 2.19 45.85 3.53

Maize flour 0.25 0.40

0.59

0.29 0.44 0.42 0.20

Wheat flour 0.80 0.61

0.51

0.71 0.43 0.54 0.65

Soya Flour 0.42 0.57

0.73 0.42

0.49 1.09 0.46 0.16 1.27

Cassava 0.17 0.34

0.26

0.24 0.27 0.33 0.30

Onions 0.41 0.57 0.17

0.36

0.37 0.59 0.48 0.14

Tomatoes 1.01 0.51 0.19

0.26 1.71 0.52 0.50 0.43 0.47

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT 2018

4. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

4.1 Summary and conclusions

The observed general composition of trade for selected food staples in the ESA region for

2017 was still dominated by grains and pulses. The grains and pulses accounted for 77% of total trade by volume and 60% by value. The observed composition of trade is similar to the trends observed in previous years; the bulk of trade in the region consists of grains, pulses, and processed flours. This implies that any major change in trade among these categories of commodities will have a proportionately higher impact on the overall trade.

Maize is the main staple food traded formally and under SSCBT in ESA region. This implies that any major change in maize trade will have a proportionately higher impact on the overall regional trade.

Total trade increased in both volume and value terms in 2017 in ESA region.

o Formal trade in volume terms increased by 48% while SSCBT almost doubled, increasing by 99% in volume terms. Overall, total trade volumes increased by 55% in

2017.

o During the year 2017, the value of formal trade increased by 50% while that of

SSCBT increased by 57%. Overall, the value of total trade decreased by 52%.

The observed big increases in overall trade in food staples for the ESA region in 2017 can be partly explained by the big increases in traded food staples, in volume terms, for

Tanzania (197%), Ethiopia (169%), Burundi (116%) and Uganda and Kenya (over 100%). For all the mentioned countries, significant increases in volumes are seen in the exports of maize grain.

Regarding the SSCBT traded volumes in 2017 and the overall percentage increase of 99% from levels of 2016, further analysis of these statistics depict big increases for Tanzania

(234%), Kenya (171%), Uganda (145%) and Burundi (95%). Exported volumes of grains and pulses in 2017 increased more than twofold in all importing countries with the exception of

Rwanda and South Sudan.

Kenya, Tanzania and DR Congo were the major destinations, hence importers of staple foods in the ESA region in 2017. In volume terms, food exports to Kenya accounted for

34% of total staple food exports in the ESA region for 2017 while those to Tanzania and DR

Congo accounted for 26% and 23% respectively.

Uganda and Zambia were the main exporters of formal food staples in the region in 2017.

Uganda’s exports accounted for 52% while Zambia’s exports accounted for 22% of the total exported food staples for the ESA region in 2017. For both countries, their major exported foods were grains and pulses, maize in particular.

The quality of trade data in the ESA region has been improving over time following interventions by COMESA and other stakeholders like ReSAKSS.

4.2 Recommendations

There is still need to continue with the efforts to improve trade data quality. At the regional level COMESA with support from USAID and other stakeholders like the EU have been working towards improving data quality and positive results have been observed.

Other trade facilitation efforts including infrastructure should be encouraged to maximize improvement of trade data, for example, use of OSBP which enhance trade activities including recording of trade volumes and values at a one stop desk.

There is need to improve on the scope/coverage of SSCBT data collection in the region in order to have a more realistic picture of the SSCBT. Efforts such as those initiated by the

World Bank under the Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project and also those of the

European Development Fund (EDF-11) are a welcome move in augmenting SSCBT data collected in the region.

5.0 ANNEXES

Annex 1: Border points for informal cross-border trade by UBOS

Annex 2: Formal intra-ESA food staple Exports by Exporter, (MT), 2017

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 154 1,393 - 83,664 27,993 30,133 63,172 610,611 308,737 1,125,857

Dry Legume & pulses

154 1,163

63,691 21,142 27,801 9,129 258,199 10,488 391,768

Maize grain

19,640 5,581 2,214 4,162 350,890 295,398 678,093

333 1,270 118 49,881 1,522 2,851 55,995

Livestock/Products 1 13 - 1 44,152 34 6,265 70,861 953 122,280

1 1,227

0 55 189 1,472

Milk and cream 0 13

0 42,181 15 5,637 69,998 287 118,131

Fish 0

744 19 628 809 478 2,677

Processed Flour 12,311 75 - - 2,037 59 64,288 48,980 10,534 138,284

Maize flour 0 50

19,487 45,305 1,145 66,040

Wheat flour 12,311 25

1,641

44,801 1,746 700 61,224

Soya Flour

342 59 1 1,929 8,689 11,020

Roots & Tubers - - - - - - 78 14,924 30 15,032

Cassava

78 14,924 30 15,032

Vegetables 88 7 - 23,371 895 - 217 6,410 255 31,243

Onions 82 1

13,187 854

205 539

14,868

Tomatoes 5 6

10,184 40

13 5,872 255 16,376

Total 12,553 1,487 - 107,037 75,076 30,226 134,020 751,787 320,509 1,432,696

Annex 3: Formal intra-ESA food staple exports by exporter, US$’000, 2017

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 91 604 - 30,570 18,883 21,618 33,860 153,993 89,475 349,095

Dry Legume & pulses

91 160

23,741 10,869 20,172 4,881 70,280 5,709 135,903

Maize grain

6,802 7,621 1,369 456 82,853 82,272 181,808

27 393 77 28,524 860 1,494 31,385

Livestock/Products 0 12 - 6 39,172 24 13,029 76,036 2,375 130,655

6 4,836

0 317 321 5,481

Live bovine animals

6,784 10

6,794

Milk and cream 0 12

0 33,131 16 5,470 74,193 1,617 114,439

Fish 0

1,205 8 774 1,516 437 3,940

Processed Flour 6,318 7 - - 1,106 17 33,945 14,688 4,560 60,642

Maize flour 0 4

5,923 12,601 276 18,842

Wheat flour 6,318 3

28,021 865 432 36,327

Soya Flour

382 17 0 1,222 3,852 5,473

Roots & Tubers - - - - - - 7 3,365 3 3,376

Cassava

7 3,365 3 3,376

Vegetables - 1 - 4,230 445 - 29 4,443 227 9,374

Onions

2,538 315

9 205 163 3,231

Tomatoes

1,691 130

20 4,237 64 6,142

Total 6,409 624 - 34,806 59,607 21,660 80,869 252,526 96,640 553,141

Annex 4: Formal and Informal intra-ESA staple food exports, 2016 - 2017 and % change

2016 2017 %Change

2016-2017 Formal

Value ('000 USD) 368,891.71 553,141.02 50%

Volume (MT) 977,020.25 1,444,858.72 48%

Informal

Value ('000 USD) 132,922.65 209,221.24 57%

Volume (MT) 163,483.39 325,533.52 99%

Total

Value ('000 USD) 501,814.36 762,362.26 52%

Volume (MT) 1,140,503.64 1,770,392.24 55%

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, NISR and UBOS, 2018

Annex 5: Total intra-ESA staple food exports by destination, 2017 (MT)

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 40,442.37 93,139.36 3,054.48 10,211.58 821,122.04 19,901.79 93,081.75 61,206.59 193,287.19 26,758.80 3,125.70 1,365,331.66

Dry Legume & pulses 1,924.16 31,067.51 2,721.13 1.81 349,210.43 262.27 5,687.96 21,835.07 40,969.07 21,900.64 2,303.50 477,883.53

Maize grain 38,138.95 8,876.46 - 10,209.78 471,878.12 19,639.52 86,203.49 39,114.19 152,305.74 3,262.22 704.20 830,332.67

Rice grain 379.26 53,195.40 333.35 - 33.49 - 1,190.30 257.34 12.38 1,595.95 118.00 57,115.46

Livestock/Products 1,333.77 33,632.75 43.75 926.09 70,043.72 147.78 3,722.57 16,385.90 9,026.21 21,160.94 71.25 156,494.72

Bovine meat 2.31 4,672.23 0.01 1.26 50.00 0.55 8.73 318.66 540.22 0.43 - 5,594.40

Milk and cream 1,168.74 10,550.73 43.74 923.83 66,700.71 89.23 2,890.93 15,989.10 8,453.53 20,882.70 71.25 127,764.49

Fish 162.72 18,409.79 - 1.00 3,293.01 58.00 822.91 78.14 32.45 277.81 - 23,135.83

Processed Flour 3,035.83 97,063.15 - 10.00 5,493.07 - 26,657.40 35,187.86 7,052.35 474.95 0.18 174,974.78

Maize flour 2,969.45 34,919.34 - - 804.10 - 25,114.89 31,746.84 2,980.99 227.33 - 98,762.94

Wheat flour 65.68 61,727.91 - - 271.97 - 114.71 2,613.14 127.36 238.12 - 65,158.88

Soya Flour 0.70 415.90 - 10.00 4,417.00 - 1,427.80 827.87 3,944.01 9.50 0.18 11,052.96

Roots & Tubers 813.65 669.56 - - 2,347.29 - 13,349.77 564.90 7.62 1.01 - 17,753.80

Cassava 813.65 669.56 - - 2,347.29 - 13,349.77 564.90 7.62 1.01 - 17,753.80

Vegetables 255.98 5,817.71 23,906.45 - 18,028.43 25.45 352.67 5,138.94 87.46 2,224.19 - 55,837.27

Onions 39.72 1,717.57 14,846.68 - 1,081.85 - 177.48 3,143.32 14.21 1,925.44 - 22,946.28

Tomatoes 216.25 4,100.14 9,059.77 - 16,946.58 25.45 175.19 1,995.62 73.24 298.75 - 32,890.99

Grand Total 45,881.60 230,322.53 27,004.68 11,147.68 917,034.55 20,075.01 137,164.15 118,484.18 209,460.83 50,619.89 3,197.13 1,770,392.24

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, UBOS and NISR, 2018

Annex 6: Total intra-ESA staple food exports by destination, 2017 (US$ ’000)

Product Burundi Congo DR Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda South Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Total

Grain & Pulses 10,518.51 50,138.22 1,808.78 1,458.06 219,282.84 7,053.37 28,904.27 35,574.01 82,504.60 14,928.35 4,313.56 456,484.58

Dry Legume & pulses 868.09 17,180.84 1,781.67 16.12 112,611.65 137.45 3,078.28 18,212.84 23,390.55 12,182.35 3,133.67 192,593.51

Maize grain 9,491.96 2,533.14 - 1,441.94 106,649.98 6,915.92 25,028.13 17,251.79 59,106.67 2,041.61 1,103.29 231,564.43

Rice grain 158.46 30,424.24 27.11 - 21.21 - 797.86 109.37 7.38 704.40 76.61 32,326.65

Livestock/Products 1,251.49 80,224.84 374.79 880.91 73,433.47 232.22 4,263.99 13,984.53 13,581.48 15,179.59 84.41 203,491.72

Bovine meat 5.47 11,388.81 0.19 12.17 127.96 5.02 57.98 1,381.56 1,915.79 0.62 - 14,895.59

Live bovine animals 7.27 6,776.23

9.91

0.78

6,794.20

Milk and cream 1,039.47 10,480.98 374.60 867.96 65,449.12 194.44 2,729.40 12,431.82 10,177.87 14,198.32 84.41 118,028.38

Fish 199.27 51,578.82 - 0.78 7,846.47 32.76 1,476.62 171.15 1,487.82 979.86 - 63,773.55

Processed Flour 800.35 51,583.70 - 7.32 2,477.31 - 8,084.27 15,933.50 3,123.21 200.76 0.22 82,210.64

Maize flour 747.64 13,981.71 - - 473.38 - 7,304.69 13,914.48 1,250.10 45.06 - 37,717.06

Wheat flour 52.41 37,365.34 - - 137.53 - 81.25 1,116.86 68.73 154.14 - 38,976.26

Soya Flour 0.30 236.65 - 7.32 1,866.39 - 698.33 902.16 1,804.38 1.56 0.22 5,517.31

Roots & Tubers 141.70 225.98 - - 613.18 - 3,157.87 151.11 2.52 0.30 - 4,292.66

Cassava 141.70 225.98 - - 613.18 - 3,157.87 151.11 2.52 0.30 - 4,292.66

Vegetables 233.89 3,055.27 4,229.68 - 4,859.77 43.60 156.85 2,862.46 38.45 402.67 - 15,882.65

Onions 16.42 974.05 2,538.42 - 392.32 - 65.37 1,862.04 6.75 261.08 - 6,116.45

Tomatoes 217.47 2,081.22 1,691.27 - 4,467.46 43.60 91.48 1,000.42 31.69 141.59 - 9,766.20

Grand Total 12,945.94 185,228.01 6,413.25 2,346.29 300,666.57 7,329.19 44,567.25 68,505.62 99,250.25 30,711.68 4,398.20 762,362.26

Source: Computation based on data from COMSTAT, UBOS and NISR, 2018

Annex 7: Exchange rate performance of local currencies against USD (2016 - 2017)

Burundi DRC Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Xrates BIF/ USD

CDF/

USD

DJF/ USD

ETB/

USD

KES/ USD

MWK/

USD

RWF/

USD

TZS/ USD

UGX/

USD

ZMW/

USD

2016 1,620.30 962.32 177.72 21.85 101.45 711.16 781.25 2,184.04 3,417.47 10.44

2017 1,724.25 1448.27 177.72 23.95 103.39 725.87 835.11 2,238.88 3,611.02 9.54

% Change, 2016-2017 6% 50% 0% 10% 2% 2% 7% 3% 6% -9%

Source : http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates