Country_Profiles_-_EA_Seed_Assessment_(2018.10.26).pdf

KENYA

SEED TRADE ANALYSIS | COUNTRY PROFILE

KEY STATS

25 active crop seed companies

75% of land planted with maize is certified maize seed.

Percentage of land planted with improved seed is vastly lower for other crops (Irish Potato, 2-

5%; common bean, < 20%)

70% of seed market share is controlled by the parastatal Kenya Seed Company.

85-90% of certified crop seed sold is from local production. 10-15% is imported crop seed.

Kenya has a relatively well-developed seed sector within sub-Saharan Africa. For its main staple crop maize, approximately 75% of the land planted with maize is planted with certified seed. On average, 3 – 20% of all seeds for a limited number of crops (mainly maize and rice) are supplied through formal systems. The percentage of land planted with improved seed is, however, vastly lower for other crops. Estimates for Irish potato are 2 - 5% of improved seed, and for common bean less than 20% of improved seed. A key reason for this is that certified seed is less available for these and other crops such as sorghum, groundnuts, and soybeans. The formal sector is dominated by the Kenya Seed Company, a parastatal which has about 70% of the market share, with many other local, regional, and multinational companies (MNCs) also selling in the market.

There are approximately 25 active crop seed companies in the country, with many others registered but not currently active, or focusing primarily on vegetable seed trade.

The national seed regulator in Kenya is the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS), which has high technical capacity compared to other countries in the region. Due to stringent adherence to standards, seed produced in Kenya has a good reputation within the region for being high quality and is often sought-after by farmers in neighboring countries.

Information from a seed sector baseline conducted in Kenya in 2010 shows that crop seed production in Kenya increased from less than 25,000 metric ton (MT) in 1999 to approximately

44,000 MT in 2009 (Sikinyi, 2010). However, by 2016, seed production in Kenya had dropped to roughly 37,000 MT according to KEPHIS data, which is attributed to challenges such as drought, changing weather patterns, Fall Armyworm (FAW), Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN), and other pest and disease challenges. Additional underlying factors that contribute to the decline include the market domination of government parastatals that dissuades private sector investment, and the challenge of low levels of public sector supply of early generation seed

(EGS) to the private sector for non-maize crops.

Kenya is a member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) seed schemes and has an International Seed Testing Association (ISTA) accredited lab at

KEPHIS that can issue orange and blue certificates for export. Kenya also is a member of

COMESA and is involved in COMSHIP harmonization processes. By the end of 2016, Kenya had completed the process of alignment of national seed laws. The seed law has been changed to allow for private inspection and self-regulation. Kenya joined the International Union for the

Protection of New Varieties of Plants (UPOV) convention in 1999 and provides plant breeder’s rights within the country. The membership to these organizations has enabled Kenya to be an active player in the international standard setting process for seeds and provides a predictable and conducive environment for investments.

Maize seed sold in Kenya is primarily from local production, at 85-90% of total crop seed certified annually, with imports contributing the remaining 10-15%. Crops that are imported include maize, and the main source for maize seed is Zambia. Other crops, particularly vegetables, contribute minor amounts by volume to the import totals. Kenya is also an exporter of seed to other countries, particularly Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania for maize.

Importation of seed is undertaken under the provisions of the Seeds and Plant Varieties Act and the Plant Protection Act. Seed import permits must be obtained from KEPHIS prior to any importation, and upon arrival, shipments undergo routine seed testing for pests and diseases, including MLN to ensure compliance. KEPHIS has a zero-tolerance standard for MLN. In addition, routine post-control tests are undertaken for each lot of seed imported.

The main industry voice related to seed trade in Kenya is the Seed Trade Association of Kenya

(STAK) (which sometimes links up with the Plant Breeders Association of Kenya (PBAK). STAK is a member-based association that has been revived in recent years through targeted development partner support. Among other roles, it serves as a liaison institution between individual seed companies and KEPHIS and the government of Kenya. Member companies are given a unified voice through STAK to negotiate and advocate on new policies and regulations proposed for the seed industry, especially policies impacting seed trade. KEPHIS recognizes

STAK as the voice of the private sector.

Development partner funding for the seed sector in Kenya comes from a variety of sources, each of which have targeted geographic, crop, and market actor focuses. For example, the World Bank provides support to national agricultural research programs, while DfID has focused on market systems change in the formal sector. Private sector investment also plays a key role in seed sector growth. Examples include AgriCo, the largest European seed potato exporter, which is investing heavily in establishing seed potato production facilities in Kenya to meet the high demand locally and regionally, and SeedCo’s Kenya subsidiary (called AgriSeed), which is investing in seed production expansion through a new plant in Kitale.

Kenyan Seed Market Analysis

Table 1 below shows the very long process of the shift to certified maize seed adoption in

Kenya, which seems to be stabilizing around a formal seed market share of about 78 - 80% from the 1970s -1980s levels (when it was 55%). The increasing formal market share seems to be leading to a trade pattern of relatively balanced imports and exports as shown in the past three years of trade data in Graph 1. Seed companies looking at these long-trends in sectoral growth

M e tr ic

T o n n s rates, their own sales trends, those of competing varieties and distribution structures (public and private), and the business and policy environment will be conservative in their planning of production, marketing, and sales efforts. In addition, they will also watch for big structural demand disruptors, such as subsidy programs, demographic transitions to a majority urban population that shifts food consumption, or a chronic disease threat like MLN that changes the areas where seed can be reliably produced to avoid quarantine restrictions.

Table 1: Kenya's Formal Market Share for Maize Seed

Year Acreage

Planted Seeding

Rate Total

Seedling

Requirement

Domestic

Seed Sales

(certified)

Formal

Market

Share (%)

2024* 2,400,000 0.025 60,000 46,804 78%

2015 2,124,489 0.025 53,112 41,431 78%

2010 1,933,675 0.025 48,342 34,323 71%

2005 1,760,000 0.025 44,000 27,500 62%

76/77-86/87 1,200,000 0.0275 33,000 18,000 55%

Data Sources: RENAPRI, 2015. Anticipating the Future of Agriculture in the Region: Outlook for Maize, Wheat, Sugar and

Rice; A. O'Connor Funk and A. Karimi Wamache. June 2012. Kenya Seed Industry Study; and, T. Grossman, A. Linnemann, and H. Wierema. 1991. Seed Industry Development in a North-South Perspective Pudoc, Wageningen

Graph 1:

Kenya's Maize Seed Yearly Imports and Exports

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

Exports

Imports

2,000

2015 2016 2017

Despite successful alignment of national seed laws, Kenya still face a lot of challenges in the implementation stage. The following challenges have been outlined as the barriers to COMSHIP implementation in the country.

1. Inadequate awareness on COMESA Seed Trade Harmonization Regulations (and the application of the COMESA Variety Catalogue).

2. Gaps in capacity building support for reference samples, cold rooms, variety testing equipment, and the production of COMESA Certification documents, certificates, and labels.

3. There are also emerging pests and diseases in Kenya, notably Maize Lethal Necrosis

Disease (MLN) and Fall Army Warm (FAW), that threaten seed crop.

4. Inadequate commercial (export) and foundation seed volumes compared to other member states.

5. An ever increasing population is leading to fragmented land for seed production.

6. Implementation challenges on cases where harmonized standards are lower than the national standards (seed certification standard schedules).

7. Other challenges include additional costs in the national variety catalogue (list) versus regional variety catalogue related to printing seed labels and certification certificates for

COMESA.

The information included in this Country Profile is a summary drawn from the “Assessment to Support the Promotion of

Regional Seed Trade in East Africa” published in October 2018 by Feed the Future and USAID’s program, Africa Lead. The report and summary materials were prepared by DAI in conjunction with Agri Experience Limited and funded by the U.S.

Agency for International Development under Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-A13-00085.

RWANDA

SEED DEMAND AND SEED TRADE ANALYSIS | COUNTRY PROFILE

8 active crop seed companies, 100 cooperatives, and

350 individual producers

65% of land planted with maize is certified maize seed (43% hybrid & 22% OPV)

Percentage of land planted with improved seed is vastly lower for other crops (Common bean; Irish

Potato) Kenya seed Rwanda, SeedCo Rwanda, DowDupont

(Murphy Chemicals), Tubura (One Acre Fund) and

Western Seed are the dominant seed companies.

Rwanda Agricultural Board (RAB) is responsible for producing breeders and pre-basic seeds.

22% certified (maize) crop seed sold is from local production; 78% are imports.

The Rwanda seed industry is nascent, and as a result local seed supply especially for maize is vastly lower than total supply. According to the 2016 Rwanda Country Early Generation Seed

(EGS) study (which cites the 2009 Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) Baseline Study), farmer adoption of improved varieties is very low, at between 7% and 13%. However, after the introduction of a subsidy program of hybrid and certified seed in 2012 - 2013, use of improved varieties has drastically improved, whereby currently over 65% of maize seed is from improved varieties. This same trend also applies to wheat and soybean. There are four dominant seed systems in Rwanda which including a farmer-saved system, mixed public-private intermediary system focusing on quality declared seed, a public system, and a private system as shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Summary of Rwanda’s Seed Sector Characterization

The formal seed system in Rwanda, especially for maize, is dominated by public sector stakeholders and the use of Open Pollinated Varieties (OPVs) (RAB, 2015). As a result, Rwanda has been a major importer of seed, distributing it through a subsidy program for the last decade. As with other sectors of Rwanda’s centrally planned economy, driven by top down policy and performance contracts, seed importation is centrally controlled. There is government interest, however, in encouraging more local seed production. In 2016, Rwanda passed a National Legislative Framework for Seeds which included a reviewed seed policy, a reviewed law, and a new institutional structure called the Rwanda Seed Roadmap 2016 - 2020 to support the implementation of the law and guide the seed industry.

The Roadmap outlines how the government proposes to exit direct seed production, procurement, and marketing activities over time and encourage private sector investment in the sector. Local production of hybrid maize, at present, is almost negligible, but Rwanda has initiated seed initiatives in soybean and potato. In addition, the Rwanda government is a major producer of seed for climbing beans. Rwanda is also one of the first five countries to harmonize their national seed regulations with COMESA’s regulations.

A key challenge to seed importation in Rwanda is unfavorable weather conditions in southern

Africa, which has negatively impacted seed quantities available from seed exporting countries such as Zambia. In addition, late ordering by the government puts a lot of pressure on importing companies and causes delays in delivery. The second main challenge is reference of international organizations such as ISTA, OECD, or UPOV for relevant regulations is not possible since Rwanda is not yet a member of these associations. Equally, the institutional arrangements to implement the law are still in an infancy stage limiting effectiveness, and the capacity of the regulators and the seed producers is still low. There are only eight seed inspectors in Rwanda. Although the three main regional seed companies that supply the bulk of imported hybrid seed have made several attempts to produce locally, they have faced numerable challenges including the low capacity of producers and a lack of equipment, facilities, adequate land for seed production, and processing plants. Seed subsidies by the government also constitute a significant impediment to the development of an effective private sector.

While Rwanda has aspirations to build their local seed supply and reduce dependence on imports, significant work is still needed in order to build a robust and private sector focused seed system. As a first step, Rwanda is in the process of establishing an independent seed quality control service, the Rwanda Inspectorate, Competition and Consumer Protection

Authority (RICA), whose mandate is to oversee variety testing and release, among other duties.

The government is also keen on supporting seed production under irrigated land in the Eastern

Province, although the mechanisms of accessing this land are not yet clear. The isolated production location of this region is also a problem.

On the demand side, there are limited distribution outlets for seed, and most farmers will either plant seed provided in the subsidy program or their own farm-saved seed. Seed is procured according to the government’s annual budget allocation (hence volumes remain more or less the same). Effective demand of seed is unknown as virtually all seed procured by tr ic

T o n n government is distributed to farmers, and there is no understanding of how many additional farmers might have wanted to procure formal sector seed.

Rwandan Seed Market Analysis

The national maize strategy shifted in 2007 from public-sector supplied open-pollinated maize varieties (OPVs) to a hybrid maize and fertilizer productivity intensification strategy that has required the importation of all hybrid seed. See Graph 2 below that shows a rough concordance between the shift in strategy and its impact on crop yield and production. The nature of the Rwandan maize seed demand shifted to around a 70 percent hybrid adoption rate that the Rwandan government wants to push to 90 percent within three to five years (Rwanda

Early Generation Seed Study, 2016). Rwanda is currently a commercial seed market with importation and distribution supported by a national subsidy program. By some estimates, the policy change created a new regional opportunity for seed trade in the 5,000 metric tons (MT) range that will persist for as long as Rwanda sustains its national funding for hybrid inputs and as long as its domestic hybrid seed production capacity remains small. The pattern of this trade is shown over the past three years in Graph 3.

Graph 2:

Rwanda Maize Production and Yields (2003 - 2013)

Graph 3:

Rwanda's Maize Seed Yearly Imports and Exports

2,500

1,500

1,000

TANZANIA

63 active crop seed companies (more than 100)

28% - 35% of land planted with maize is certified maize seed.

Percentage of land planted with improved seed is vastly lower for other crops (Pigeon pea, Sorghum)

SeedCo, Monsanto, and the Beula Seed Company are the dominant seed companies by market share.

58% of certified crop seed sold is from local production, while 42% is imported crop seed.

Seed production in Tanzania is increasing, but local production only meets 58% of the demand and seed demand is high. The Government of Tanzania does not have an official ban on crop seed exports, but for all practical purposes a de facto ban is in place as they want to ensure sufficient local supply. The existence of a de facto ban is supported by the fact that Tanzania did not provide any export data, and in a The African Seed Access Index (TASAI) study in 2017, private sector companies did not provide data on the length of time to export seed. Tanzania does allow transit seed (e.g. from Zambia to Kenya), but private sector companies from neighboring countries have raised complaints about non-tariff barriers in Tanzania, such as specific roads that must be followed that significantly increase travel distances.

Regulatory capacity is fairly weak, but steps are currently underway to improve it. From 2017

BMGF work focused on the seed sector in Tanzania was undertaken with the Government of

Tanzania in order to jointly look at the seed sector with the senior Ministry officials and design a grant to address systemic challenges including regulatory reforms. It is clear, however, that

Tanzania is now emphasizing seed sector development, and is trying to strengthen the Tanzania

Official Seed Certification Institute (TOSCI), which regulates seed production and distribution.

Tanzania was admitted to the OECD seed schemes in 2016 and the TOSCI National Seed

Testing Lab at Morogoro was accredited to ISTA May 2018. In March 2018, key personnel from

TOSCI were trained by an ISTA-certified expert on seed sampling, laboratory quality assurance and analysis, in readiness for anticipated ISTA-accreditation. This effort was supported by the

East Africa Trade and Investment Hub.

Unlike the other four focus countries, Tanzania is not a member of COMESA, but of SADC and

EAC. This is interesting as Tanzania is the key entry point of seed from southern Africa

(Republic of South Africa (RSA), Zambia and Zimbabwe) into eastern Africa. The potential for

Tanzania to become a major seed producer for the export market is huge, due to their land size, land productivity, rainfall, and borders with seven neighboring countries. However, the tr ic

T o n n government of Tanzania should ensure sufficient local production before allowing seed to be exported.

Tanzania is also one of the few countries that officially recognizes quality declared seed (QDS).

QDS requires a lower level of testing and sampling than certified seed, but can be sold only within an authorized ward close to the production location. Many farmer groups and cooperatives engage in production of QDS seed. QDS seed does not qualify for international trade due to the lower level of quality assurance.

Several respondents cited Tanzania as having many issues regarding documentation, implementation of regulations, and local challenges such as transporting seed across the country

(where travel routes that are unnecessarily longer are officially prescribed and make transportation more expensive). Tanzania also requires all seed sold locally to have a Tanzanian label affixed to it, irrespective of any other labelling that may accompany it.

Tanzanian Seed Market Analysis

For Tanzania, similar policy changes also supported by national subsidy programs have increased the demand for certified OPV and hybrid maize seed above the rate of development of national seed production capacity, creating the largest regional market for seed trade. In more mature markets with lower seed subsidies and well-established seed industries (public, private, and mixed public-private), the balance of demand and supply, market, and other risks leads to slower changes in total seed demand for certified seed (OPV and hybrid) from the formal market as opposed to recycled seed from saved crop seed, local markets, family, friends, and

NGOs.

Graph 1:

Tanzania's Maize Seed Yearly Imports and Exports

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

Note: Government of Tanzania did not provide seed export data

The information included in this Country Profile is a summary drawn from the “Assessment to Support the Promotion of

Regional Seed Trade in East Africa” published in October 2018 by Feed the Future and USAID’s program, Africa Lead. The report and summary materials were prepared by DAI in conjunction with Agri Experience Limited and funded by the U.S.

UGANDA

KEY STATS

23 active crop seed companies 44% of land planted with maize is certified maize seed.

Percentage of land planted with improved seed is vastly lower for other crops (Irish Potato, 2- 5%; Common bean, < 20%)

NASECO, Equator Seed Co, and FICA are the most dominant seed companies by market share.

85-90% certified crop seed sold is from local production; 10-15% is imported crop seed.

Uganda’s formal seed sector is liberalized and there are currently 23 companies that operate as seed producers and/or sellers (USTA, 2018). Seed certification is handled through the National

Seed Certification Service (NSCS), which is a unit within the Department of Crop Protection in the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF). The NSCS is stretched thin, however, with only seven inspectors to cover the whole country at present. Plans are underway to add more inspectors and recruitment has been completed, but the training process will take several months to a year to complete.

Given the lack of resources (human, resources, and infrastructure) to carry out inspections, there are challenges in ensuring quality certification services across Uganda, and problems of counterfeit seed and low-quality seed permeate the sector. As a result, the reputation of

Ugandan seed is low among other countries in the region, and this leads to significant concerns about importing seed from Uganda. The NSCS reports that it is receiving support to upgrade its laboratory and achieve ISTA accreditation, but government interviewees declined to discuss specifics, including the timeline to completion.

To combat the challenge of poor government certification capacity, a private verification company has been formed, supported by development partner funding including USAID and funding from the AgResults initiative, a consortium of international development partners.

AgVerify offers fee-based private seed inspections and quality verification. In the first growing season of 2018, eight companies are using its services. AgVerify is affiliated with, and utilizes, an independent ISTA-accredited laboratory in Uganda.

A key challenge for AgVerify and the companies using it, however, is that the government of

Uganda had not yet agreed to delegate authority to AgVerify to issue the necessary blue or orange certificates needed for seed export, or even to issue local certification labels.

Discussions are on-going to allow AgVerify and its affiliated ISTA-accredited lab to perform seed certification on behalf of the government, with the NSCS performing an auditing role. If agreed upon, this would be similar to the approach used in South Africa, where the government has authorized the national seed trade association, the South African National Seed

Organization (SANSOR), to certify seed, with the government playing an oversight role.

If seed quality and the reputation of seed from Uganda can be improved, there is great potential in the country for seed production. Eighty percent of Uganda is arable land, but only 30% of land is currently farmed (Cardno, 2014). Uganda’s warm climate and high levels of rainfall make it a high potential area for agricultural production, and the highlands have bimodal rainy seasons, fertile soil, and abundant water resources, which are conducive to seed production.

Having borders with Kenya, South Sudan, DRC, Rwanda, and Tanzania, Uganda has multiple potential export markets, and can also be a preferred production location for seed companies based in neighbouring countries. One Ugandan company is already selling to retail markets in

DRC and Burundi, while another company is selling to FAO and other international non-governmental organizations for distribution in South Sudan.

Seed is imported into Uganda for sale to local farmers. Maize, bean, sunflower, and vegetable seeds are the common imports, and primarily come from Kenya (maize and beans), China and

Europe (vegetables), and South Africa (sunflower).

The Phytosanitary Inspection Unit of the Department of Crop Protection within MAAIF is responsible for issuing import permits for seed, and it maintains this data but not in a form that is accessible by outsiders. The lack of a data management system for seed imports was documented in a Uganda seed sector baseline report (Sebuliba, 2010) and was reconfirmed during the field work conducted for this study. However, according to NSCS, the issue is being addressed at present through the roll-out of an online system for import and export permits. In the future, it should be easy to collect import and export data from the online system.

The Uganda Seed Trade Association (USTA) is an important organization comprised of all 23 crop seed companies in the country. USTA is playing a strong advocacy role within the government and acts as a bridge between the private sector and the government. It has lobbied with parliamentary committees for favourable policies and liaises between MAAIF and its members. The Executive Officer of USTA plans to work with MAAIF to collect seed import and export data from the ministry and share it with USTA members for planning purposes.

Uganda has been involved with seed policy and regulation harmonization since the 1990s up to the current COMSHIP activities. Uganda was among the first five COMESA countries to harmonize their seed regulations in 2017. The challenge is now how to make harmonized regulations operational, taking into consideration the weak public regulatory framework and lack of adequate infrastructure and resources in Uganda.

Implementation of legislation in Uganda has been slow because the seed certification and phytosanitary regimes are at different levels of development which affects implementation of

COMSHIP; the seed certification and phytosanitary authorities are within the government ministries and not independent authorities, which slows down decision making; and inadequate infrastructure and human resource development is a challenge to seed certification services.

The information included in this Country Profile is a summary drawn from the “Assessment to Support the Promotion of

Regional Seed Trade in East Africa” published in October 2018 by Feed the Future and USAID’s program, Africa Lead. The report and summary materials were prepared by DAI in conjunction with Agri Experience Limited and funded by the U.S.

ZAMBIA

21 active crop seed companies

62% - 81% of land planted with maize is certified maize seed.

Percentage of land planted with improved seed is vastly lower for other crops (groundnuts 57%;

soybeans)

SeedCo, Zamseed, DowDuPont, and Syngenta

MRI are the largest maize seed producers.

85% - 90% of certified crop seed sold is from local production; 10-15% is imported crop seed.

Zambia is one of the two largest seed exporters in East and Southern Africa by tonnage to the region. Zambia’s extensive production land, generally favorable climate, access to both local and

Zimbabwean seed production expertise, in addition to a favorable and progressive regulatory environment have led to extensive private sector investment in Zambia for seed production.

Critically, Zambia borders eight countries, placing it in a strategic position for regional seed trade.

Zambia’s Seed Control and Certification Institute (SCCI) certifies approximately 80,000 MT of seed annually, of which 45,000 MT is exported with the rest retained for local use. Zambia has a relatively strong regulatory capacity and is moving towards OECD systems. SCCI started accrediting private seed inspectors in 1991, following reforms in the seed sector from revision of the Plant Variety and Seeds Act (Cap 236) that liberalized the sector, decentralized seed production, and also saw the enactment of plant variety protection law. This liberalization was largely driven by political developments in neighboring Zimbabwe, and the movement of large commercial farming operations from Zimbabwe to Zambia.

Policy liberalization in Zambia encouraged substantial private sector investment in seed production. Most major seed production multinational companies (MNCs) now have operations in-country. Zambia is also increasingly moving toward a significant degree of self-regulation in the seed sector. SCCI has established multiple satellite seed laboratories and three private laboratories, including an ISTA certified laboratory in Lusaka, which issues Orange

International Certificates.

In the last few years, SCCI has developed and begun to use an online system to facilitate seed certification and trade, including the provision of testing results and seed labels. Private sector companies can access their own data in the system to check the status of seed lot testing, permits, and payments. They are also able to initiate transactions online, such as applying for permits. The Zambian model has been of interest to regulatory agencies in the region, and as a result Zambia has hosted visits from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. After their visit to Zambia, Kenya moved ahead and adopted accreditation of private inspectors, utilized relevant portions of the Zambian training curriculum, and sent seed inspectors and analysts to participate in a

Zambian training for learning purposes.

Zambia is currently adopting the use of a label for seed destined only for local markets, which will most likely involve compliance with lower certification standards, possibly lowering the cost of seed in local markets.

Zambia belongs both to COMESA and SADC. Seed control at border crossings is overseen by two institutions—SCCI for quality control and the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute

(ZARI) for plant health and phytosanitary issues. Officers from both institutes cover for each other, especially since there are fewer ZARI officers.

Seed companies in Zambia produce for both the local market and the export market. The export market is primarily maize seed distributed to eastern Africa, with export volumes produced primarily by large regional and multi-national companies. Smaller local companies produce some maize for export, but focus mostly on non-maize crops such as groundnuts, soybean and Irish potato. Seed exports of other crops go to DRC, Botswana, Angola, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Zambia imports Irish potato, soybean, and groundnuts from South

Africa and Malawi. Several companies import early generation seed (EGS) from Zimbabwe.

The export process for the most part is viewed as working very well, with a few exceptions.

The exceptions cited were insufficient personnel from both SCCI and ZARI to staff borders, and a need for capacity building, equipment, and periodic audits on how the system works.

Public sector budget issues are a key reason for the lack of capacity.

Zambia Seed Market Analysis

When disruption in neighboring Zimbabwe shifted commercial farmers to Zambia, the Zimbabwe seed industry started to shift assets to supply them, and MNCs and South African regional companies joined in to establish operations closer to emerging and frontier Sub- Saharan Africa markets. These moves capitalized off of established private maize breeding programs in white maize in Zambia to rapidly build a large base of seed production with a strong domestic base of sales for commercial, emerging, and national subsidy programs and for unmet maize seed demand in the region. Zambia is a member state of both COMESA and SADC and has access and tariff advantages not held by South Africa (which belongs to SADC, but not COMESA).

Maize seed trade in Zambia also reflects that export orientation as shown in Graph 6 below.

Since the late 1990s, Zambian maize seed production capacity has rapidly been increasing and may be structurally catching up with the domestic and export markets that are currently addressable on a risk-weighted basis, especially as MNC seed companies restructure their global operations and their subsidiary company and brand strategies. The drop off in Zambian maize seed imports in 2016 and 2017 could be the result of one or a combination of the following: maturation of breeding and seed production capacities among the Zambian firms; an tr ic

T o n n increase in demand for seed in the home country of regional seed companies (Zimbabwe and

South Africa) that have subsidiaries in Zambia; the availability of a more profitable alternative export market; or a shift in the class of maize seed that is sent to Zambia. For example, a company may send seeds of parent lines for crossing to produce certified hybrids in Zambia rather than sending certified seeds for sale to distributors and farmers. More detailed data on the class of seed that is traded would be very useful in establishing the certified seed supply available for crop production or re-export versus national seed production capacity expansion.

Graph 5:

Zambia's Maize Seed Yearly Imports and Exports

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

The information included in this Country Profile is a summary drawn from the “Assessment to Support the Promotion of

Regional Seed Trade in East Africa” published in October 2018 by Feed the Future and USAID’s program, Africa Lead. The report and summary materials were prepared by DAI in conjunction with Agri Experience Limited and funded by the U.S.