Attach 5 Revised PWS Temp Model Development Rev August 2020_0001.pdf

140R2020Q0064 Amendment 0001

Attachment 5

PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT

TEMPERATURE MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT

August 2020

1.0 INTRODUCTION:

1.1 Organization to be supported:

Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) Central Valley Operations Office (CVOO)

3310 El Camino Avenue Ste 300 Sacramento, CA 95821

1.2 Background:

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) operate the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP), respectively, to divert, store, and convey CVP and SWP (Project) water consistent with applicable law and contractual obligations. The CVP and the SWP are two major inter-basin water storage and delivery systems that divert and re-divert water from the southern portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta). Both CVP and SWP include major reservoirs upstream of the Delta, and transport water via natural watercourses and canal systems to areas south and west of the Delta.

Reclamation’s northern CVP include the major facilities of Shasta, Trinity, Whiskeytown, and Folsom reservoirs which contribute to Sacramento River flow. The CVP also includes facilities and operations on the Stanislaus and San Joaquin Rivers. The major facilities on these rivers are New Melones and Friant Dams, respectively. Both DWR and Reclamation operate pursuant to water right permits and licenses issued by the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) to appropriate water by diverting to storage or by directly diverting to use and re-diverting releases from storage later in the year. As conditions of their water right permits and licenses, the SWRCB requires the CVP and SWP to meet specific water quality, quantity, and operational criteria. Reclamation and DWR closely coordinate the CVP and SWP operations, respectively, to meet these conditions.

Environmental protection is served by several objectives established to assist in stabilizing and improving species/habitat in the tributaries managed by the CVP. Temperature management is a key parameter for protection of species with specific cold-water needs. These goals can’t be achieved without the support of physically based computational modeling frameworks/tools specifically designed for temperature management. The objectives are identified within:

• SWRCB Decision 90-5 and 90-1, completed in 1990,

• Reclamation Biological Assessment for the Coordinated Long-Term Operation of the

CVP and SWP completed October 2019, and

• NMFS Biological Opinion (BO)/Reasonable and Prudent Measures (RPM) completed on

October 22, 2019.

Within these documents, strategies and objectives for water temperature management allows reservoir operators with limited resource supply to effectively plan, forecast, and operate storage and conveyance systems to meet a wide range of water supply demands and limit impacts to aquatic species sensitive to temperature. Water temperature modeling frameworks are used to forecast and assess future conditions for real-time, seasonal operations, and biological assessments to achieve goals. Continued modeling maintenance and improvement aim to support current efforts:

The SWRCB D-90-5 which imposes a team and process for meeting the temperature requirements (daily average water temperature of 56°F) in the upper Sacramento River, between Keswick Dam and Red Bluff Diversion Dam.

https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/board_decisions/adopted_orders/orders/1990/wro90-05.pdf https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/board_decisions/adopted_orders/orders/1990/wro90-01.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/lto/biop.html https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/lto/biop.html https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/biological-opinion-reinitiation-consultation-long-term-operation-central-valley

The 2019 Biological Assessment and Proposed Action (Proposed Action) identifies specific CVP cold water pool and temperature management activities reliant on modeling frameworks:

• Section 4.10.1.4 Upper Sacramento River (Shasta and Sacramento Divisions) – Cold

Water Pool Management.

• Section 4.10.2.1 Trinity River Division – Seasonal Operations

• Section 4.10.2.3 Whiskeytown Reservoir Operations

• Section 4.10.4.2 American River Division – Temperature Management

• Section 4.10.6.2 Stanislaus River (East Side Division) – Conservation Measures:

Temperature Management Study

The 2019 Biological Assessment Proposed Action also identifies conservation measures to avoid, minimize, or compensate for CVP and SWP project effects, including take, on specific species, and to contribute to the recovery and enhancement of species and habitats. Actions specific to temperature management in Section 4.10.1.5.2 include:

• Temperature Modeling Platform: Reclamation will continue as part of a collaborative model development effort to develop a new temperature model for the Upper Sacramento River (Shasta and Keswick reservoirs). NMFS Science Center, among others, is participating in the collaborative process. This new model will be on the CEQUAL-W-2 platform with the intention of developing similar platforms for all of Reclamation's major reservoirs.

NMFS 2019 RPM also included temperature management guidance:

• Consistent with the final proposed action, Reclamation shall develop a stratification model for Shasta Reservoir and evaluate this model for implementation as part of the development of annual temperature management plans. The initial stratification model shall be available for pilot application and evaluation no later than January 1, 2022, unless NMFS and Reclamation agree to extend the date. At the end of the three-year period starting once the stratification model is available, Reclamation and NMFS shall submit the model to the four year Review Panel for advice on the model’s accuracy and utility as a forecasting tool, and Reclamation will decide whether implementation is appropriate.

Management of temperature in the Sacramento River is based on operation of the Temperature Control Device (TCD) on Shasta Dam. This complex device allows for selective withdrawal of temperature stratified water behind Shasta Dam throughout the year. Computational modeling techniques are applied and used to predict the performance of TCD and downstream temperature.

The 2019 Proposed Action outlines actions for Reclamation to address cold water management utilizing a tiered strategy. This “Tier” structure is based on May 1st cold water pool and forecasted resource capabilities which determines temperature goals above the Clear Creek confluence in the Sacramento River. In river temperature management is approximately May 15 through October 31. Seasonal planning and compliance temperature selection are determined by utilizing modeling toolsets. In addition, the SWRCB Water Rights 90-5 has been Reclamation’s guidance for temperature control for the CVP since 1990. Reclamation is part of the Sacramento River Temperature Task Group (SRTTG), a multiagency group formed pursuant to SWRCB Water Right 90-5 and 91-1. The process moves the temperature compliance point upstream when the downstream target cannot be met at Red Bluff Diversion Dam. Seasonal planning and compliance location selection are also determined by utilizing modeling capabilities.

Reclamation develops an annual plan and submits it to the SRTTG, who then makes a recommendation on an operation plan for temperature control. Reclamation then submits a report to the SWRCB around June 1st of each year. Reclamation must also submit a supplemental report to the SWRCB if there are any changes in the plan.

https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/mp/bdo/docs/ba-chapter-4-proposed-action.pdf https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/biological-opinion-reinitiation-consultation-long-term-operation-central-valley

On the American River, Reclamation manages the Lower American River temperatures by using selective withdrawal from the Folsom Dam Temperature Shutters. Reclamation is the lead coordinator of the American River Group (ARG), another multi-agency group to solicit feedback on American River operations including temperature operation. The 2019 Proposed Action outlines objectives to manage the Folsom/Nimbus Dam complex to maintain a daily average water temperature of 65°F or lower at Watt Avenue Bridge from May 15 through October 31, otherwise targets are refined, using computational techniques, to best match available resources for the season.

On the Stanislaus River, Reclamation also coordinates with agencies and stakeholders on operational activities. Although Reclamation does not have temperature management facilities serving the Stanislaus River, understanding temperature performance is desired. As part of the 2019 Proposed Action, Reclamation plans to study monitoring activities and approaches that would improve temperature for listed species on the lower Stanislaus River.

In 2016, the Central Valley Operations office (CVO) worked with the Reclamation Denver Technical Service Center (TSC) to evaluate temperature model algorithms and assess suitability for meeting CVO temperature prediction, modeling, and management needs on the Sacramento River, American River, and Stanislaus River. TSC assessed temperature model input preparation and results processing and dissemination, and recommended options to streamline data handling, ranking of the suite of models available, and improve stakeholder understanding. TSC interviewed CVO staff involved with water temperature modeling tasks to gain knowledge and background about temperature modeling history, current suite of tools and processes, data input development, model execution, post processing water temperature model results, understanding challenges and needs, cataloged model inputs – sources, accuracy, and forecasting issues, understand audience and needs for model output, and catalogued water temperature model information.

The TSC review identified several modeling platforms deserving of consideration for CVO needs and compiled a report in February 2017. Models included: HEC-5Q, GoldSim, CalSim (adding a temperature component), RAFT, RiverWare, and CE-QUAL W2. Modeling has been undertaken for Shasta and Keswick in partnership with the Sacramento River Settlement Contractors, using CE-QUAL-W2 with a community-based modeling development approach to address temperature prediction and operations modeling needs for managing releases to the upper Sacramento River.

The existence of calibrated models in the CVO domain and subject matter expertise among contractors, argue for the selection and adoption of a common modeling paradigm for future reservoir models. Efficiencies resulting from common use are supported for all CVP reservoirs for the purposes of modeling best possible temperature management under a given a flow regime.

In November of 2017 Reclamation’s CVO office compiled a Draft Workplan for Shasta and Trinity Division Seasonal Operational Water Temperature Modeling. This document outlines the framework for Reclamation’s temperature management modeling motivations in the northern CVP system. The fundamentals of the draft workplan have been expanded herein to address a broader section of Reclamation’s operational responsibilities.

Existing models used by Reclamation on the subject reservoirs include the following:

• The Reclamation Temperature Model has representations of Trinity, Lewiston, Whiskeytown, Shasta, Keswick, Folsom, Natoma, New Melones, Goodwin and Tulloch.

• The Sacramento River HEC-5Q modeling package has representations of Trinity, Lewiston, Whiskeytown, Shasta, and Keswick, as well as Sacramento River and Clear Creek.

• Other HEC derived models include an American River model with representations of Folsom Reservoir and Lake Natoma and a Stanislaus-Lower San Joaquin River model with representations of New Melones, Tulloch, and Goodwin.

• The iterative Coldwater Pool Management Model (iCPMM) represents temperature management on the Lower American River.

Reclamation’s ability to manage water and temperature management in complex environmental conditions rests in part with successful prediction, forecasting, and simulation. Specific temperature management objectives are supported by computational methods/modeling techniques and frameworks in need of systematic maintenance and improvement to retain/enhance Reclamation’s capabilities. In addition, Reclamation has experienced a recent enhancement in the scrutiny of computational toolsets, and we are responding. Simulation models need to demonstrate sound design purposes/frameworks, data, calibration, validation, verification, testing, documentation, peer review, and community trust in their defense. Upon conclusion of this contract Reclamation envisions Reclamation’s CVO office to employ robust and reliable seasonal and planning modeling tools for each relevant areas of operation, that are germane, defendable, and trusted by the technical community.

1.3 Clearances and Licensing:

A security clearance is not required for Contractor employees.

1.4 Privacy Act:

Work on this project requires that contractor personnel have access to Privacy Information.

Personnel shall adhere to the Privacy Act, Title 5 of the U.S. Code, Section 552a and applicable agency rules and regulations.

2.0 Scope:

The performance work statement entails developing a collection of data and a set of physically based tools within a modeling platform capable of providing suggestions for short and long-term monitoring to assist resource managers of major Central Valley Project reservoirs with balancing water resources for downstream and temperature needs. Because several agencies and parties are actively involved in operations and water temperature management that bring considerable expertise to the process, a collaborative approach is envisioned. Through community participation which allows for open communication in a transparent fashion, Reclamation hopes to foster and leverage shared knowledge to produce a trusted product. The proposed approach aims to utilize existing models, update/refine existing model technology, and develop, as necessary, new models to be used to assist reservoir operation managers. The development effort will be prioritized as follows: First priority is completion of the northern system – Shasta, Keswick, Trinity, Lewiston, and Whiskeytown Reservoirs; Second priority is the American River system – Folsom Reservoir and Lake Natoma; Third priority is the Stanislaus River system – New Melones, Tulloch, and Goodwin Reservoirs. Reclamation’s objective is the effective and efficient management of resources for downstream regulatory and environmental requirements within the context of an uncertain environment. The primary development goal of these computational tools will be trusted, reasonable predictions of downstream water temperatures for planning, seasonal, and real-time applications while also describing situational risk and uncertainty.

For each system, a two-phase process is envisioned, with the first phase focusing on the physical lake/reservoir and facility features and the second phase establishing the downstream component, addressing uncertainty, and refining tools for application. Under Phase I, models will be developed to include a strategy and implementation of data management, suggested monitoring and data collection, evaluation and selection of appropriate model/interface mechanisms, review and potential revision/update/development of data, calibration, and validation. Completion of phase 1 shall be documented with a technical report outlining the development process, data stewardship, calibration methods and presenting validation results against historical data. Under Phase 2, validated models shall be developed into applications usable by Reclamation including the implementation of proposed model frameworks, pre and post-data processing, and implementation of proposed downstream linkages for in-river temperature prediction and identifying and describing future uncertainty. A final technical report outlining: pre and post processing tools, forecasting, uncertainty, optimization/goal-seeking algorithms, hindcasting, and model application and implementation shall be completed. For both phases, each task shall be documented by technical memorandums. Community participation including partner and stakeholder involvement and outreach are expected to be coordinated during all phases of the project. A secondary goal is the scheduling of workshop time designed to build Reclamation’s expertise in the application and implementation of the temperature models. Finally, Reclamation plans to coordinate a peer-review of the completed tool, framework and supporting materials to solidify the community’s trust in the models; we expect contractor participation with the peer-review and response activities.

2.1. Technical Requirements

As stated in the scope, the development effort will be prioritized as follows: First priority is completion of the northern system – Shasta, Keswick, Trinity, Lewiston, and Whiskeytown Reservoirs; Second priority is the American River system – Folsom Reservoir and Lake Natoma;

Third priority is the Stanislaus River system – New Melones, Tulloch, and Goodwin Reservoirs.

In working through the task items, the Contractor shall consider efficiencies in strategy and implementation of data management, suggested monitoring and data collection, evaluation and selection of appropriate model/interface mechanisms, review and potential revision/update/ development of data, calibration, and validation that can be utilized within the various watersheds and systems.

2.1a. Performance Summary/Technical Requirements/Deliverables-

1. Title: Project Workplan.

Objective: Develop detailed workplan and schedule for the overall modeling project with emphasis on Phase I – Task 1 through Task 10.

Task: Coordinate with Reclamation to develop a detailed Phase I schedule for the modeling project. This also includes prioritization of reservoirs and plans for completion of reservoir modeling whether in series or in parallel. Reclamation and Contractor shall discuss and clarify details such as data management and collection, holistic development of a cold water management plan, seasonal and planning application, incorporation of uncertainty in model representation, calibration processes and validation result presentation, testing, and review strategies.

In order to meet these objectives, the models and framework shall manage:

a. Prediction of reservoir inflow volume, temperature, and timing, with associated uncertainty estimates.

b. Prediction of reservoir water temperature stratification, with associated uncertainty estimates.

c. Reservoir and river temperature modeling capabilities.

d. In an operations planning mode; automated selective reservoir withdrawal to meet a temperature target at a specified downstream point, given a reservoir release schedule.

e. Estimation of uncertainty associated with predicted water temperatures and/or ability to meet downstream temperature target.

f. Capability to translate uncertainty in individual inputs and modeling estimates throughout framework.

Contractor shall produce final schedule after consultation process with Reclamation.

2. Title: Stakeholder Involvement and Outreach

Objective: Maintain transparency and interaction with stakeholders through outreach activities.

Task: Convene Technical Modeling Committee consisting of Reclamation and other identified agencies (i.e., National Marine Fisheries Service, California State Water Resources Control Board, CVP contractors, et.al provided by Reclamation) – through this group model development activities will be shared to maintain transparency. Conduct training as appropriate such as model application workshops to transfer capabilities to Reclamation and stakeholders. Contractor shall develop and implement a community participation plan, including but not limited to Modeling Technical Committee meetings. The purpose of these meetings will be to solicit comments and feedback on progress made in the Phase I processes and to communicate and collaborate in an open and transparent fashion with the regional hydrologic modeling community, other agencies, and stakeholders. Activities include:

• Pre-meeting preparation,

• Attendance and note taking at meetings and calls,

• Preparation of meeting summaries,

• Coordination with meeting participants that will include system operators, biologists and physical modelers,

• Follow-up on action items, and

• Other project administrator activities.

Contractor shall produce and distribute meeting materials/slides and notes for each meeting.

3. Title: Develop Reclamation’s Institutional Knowledge Objective: Build Reclamation’s expertise in the application and implementation of temperature modeling.

Task: Coordination with, and training of, Reclamation staff shall take place at Technical Modeling Committee, training workshops meetings, and meetings specifically designed to transfer modeling development or application use capabilities to Reclamation’s modeling staff.

Contractor shall also produce brief and relevant training materials.

4. Title: Data Management.

Objective: Develop data management plan for Phases I and II of project.

Task: Coordinate with Reclamation to develop a data management plan, specifying how and where data is to be stored, define and format metadata, and determine how data shall be communicated. Ultimately, Reclamation will store inputs, metadata, output, and data used to inform decision-making. Security procedures shall be outlined and implemented in coordination with Reclamation IT.

5. Title: Model Framework Design and Refinement.

Objective: Develop a system-wide model framework that illustrates the spatial and temporal representation of each model used in the Trinity, Clear Creek, Sacramento, American, and Stanislaus River basins. Determine how the different elements (reservoirs and rivers) relate to one another, how information is shared among the models (e.g. how output from one model provides input to another model), and status of the models (latest calibration version, etc.).

Task: This effort lays the foundational logistics of constructing and accomplishing the temperature management objectives.

• Gather information on existing tools.

• Design a framework, o Define spatial and temporal scale, o Identify the “path” of information through the models and data sharing from model inputs to model outputs, and o Identify the status of the models and any potential development and data needs.

This framework shall provide insight into model refinement/development and ensure that tasks and phases can be prioritized based on need and ability to efficiently implement each task upon completion (i.e. place into direct use in current or refined framework).

Structure model for each reservoir, determining model network and unique aspects of operations such as Temperature Control Devices, temperature curtains, or submerged dams. The dimensional structure representation for each reservoir, including important side channels, shall be determined by the contractor in close coordination with Reclamation modelers and communicated in Modeling Technical Committee meetings and a technical memorandum outlining a modeling framework.

The framework is expected to be similar to the current HEC-5Q operational framework, and is anticipated to ultimately include key elements such as:

• Inflow volume, timing, and temperature forecasting/modeling,

• Temperature and stratification forecasting/modeling based on forecasted inflow, meteorological conditions, and a forecasted release schedule,

• Network representing physical linkages and physical characteristics (leakage, thermal curtain behavior, submerged structures, etc.) between the facilities, and

• Simulation of selective withdrawal operation for automation provided downstream temperature target and specified forecasted release schedule.

6. Title: Model/Selection Design Objective: Select models for each of the elements of the framework based on objectives and selection criteria. Determine the appropriate spatial and temporal resolution of the selected models, and conduct any additional necessary design specification for the models.

Task: For each model in the framework (and at appropriate timing in the overall project plan):

• Identify specific selection criteria and requirements for model,

• Identify existing models and potential modeling packages for new model development,

• Evaluate identified models based on selection criteria, and

• Complete initial model design and/or identify necessary refinements (if selected modeling approach is to refine an existing one).

Model elements and capabilities for consideration in selection will include (but not limited to):

• Contribution of model if different from an existing one (value added)

• Model capabilities (such as flexibility to represent selective withdrawal, submerged reservoirs, or temperature control curtains for reservoir components)

• Model spatial and temporal scales

• Model data needs

• Model performance

• Interface of new model with other models in framework

• Resources required to develop and maintain a model

• Actively supported

• Access to the principal code author and/or open source code (allowing review and modification)

• Cost assessment (initial cost or annual maintenance fee)

• Comprehensive documentation and training available

• User interface for input file quality control

• Post processors (both public and proprietary) available

• Wide range of applications

7. Title: Data Development.

Objective: Identify necessary input data to models and obtain or develop datasets for use with models.

Task: Identify necessary data and sources for use with models and identifying missing data. This plan shall describe surrogates or alternative modeling paths to deal with data that is not available.

For input requirements which shall use historic data, obtain datasets from appropriate sources.

Perform quality analysis and potentially quality control on data. For input requirements which shall use current or very recent historic data sources as initialization information for a modeling simulation, determine data sources. Develop automated mechanisms for data retrieval and/or quality analysis/quality control as necessary. For input requirements which shall use forecast data, identify and/or develop data sources. Develop metadata and documentation for all data sources.

Collect necessary data for accomplishing the scoped modeling. Make and document recommendations for supplemental data collection to support or enhance model performance.

Model input data requirements will fit into three types of data in general; time series data, physical data, and operational data.

Time series data include, but are not limited to:

• Reservoir stage (storage),

• Reservoir inflow (tributaries, diversions),

• Precipitation,

• Reservoir outflow (diversions, dam releases and spill),

• Reservoir inflow and temperature profiles, and

• Local meteorological data (solar radiation, cloud cover, air temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, etc.).

Physical data include, but are not limited to:

• Reservoir morphology (bathymetry),

• Reservoir stage-volume-surface area curve,

• Topographic shading information,

• Location of diversions to and from the reservoir, and

• Outlet work elevations and capacities (including Temperature Control Device/selective withdrawal facilities).

Operations data include, but are not limited to:

• Storage rules and limits,

• Operating rules,

• Temperature Control Device guidance,

• Rate of change criteria,

• Temperature targets or criteria,

• Hydropower memoranda of agreement/understanding, and

• Legal obligations on storage or releases.

Operations data may not be formally inputted into the model but is often implicitly incorporated into analyses through pre-processing of hydrology and water temperature data and post-processing of model results to ensure operations are realistic and representative. To the extent that information is not readily available for components of the river/reservoir system, new data may need to be collected as part of this process (i.e. bathymetric data, etc.). Contractor shall document and apply any filling of gaps, smoothing or other corrections deemed necessary in the data management plan. Where necessary, work shall be conducted through Reclamation staff based on their availability; Contractor shall also work closely with Reclamation modelers, ensuring they understand the choices made in data collection.

8. Title: Model Development.

Objective: For each of the model components in the framework, the model selected for use may need to be revised, refined, or developed.

Task: Obtain existing models (if modeling effort is a revision or refinement of existing model), refine existing model, or develop new model depending on approach determined through selection process. Repeat model refinement, calibration and validation until the model structure supports an accurate calibration to historical data. Set up and use a version control process.

Produce documentation on iterative improvements and provide details on a full validation of the model to historical data.

9. Title: Calibration, Validation, and Sensitivity Objective: Calibrate and validate model components as they are refined/developed and perform a sensitivity analysis on selected/estimated parameters.

Task: Complete calibration and validation of modeling components. Calibrate model representation of reservoir temperatures to historical thermocline data to provide a stable modeling platform for future use by Reclamation. Include simulations of the fullest extent of historical data in the model package, allowing for analysis of dry and wet periods within this time frame. Contractor shall produce updates on calibration for Modeling Technical Committee and Reclamation modelers. Contractor shall also perform parameter sensitivity analysis and provide a summary of results.

10. Title: Documentation – Phase I.

Objective: Documentation of Phase I the development of the physical and facility components of reservoir/after-bay models, data development, model assumptions, calibration, performance, procedures for operation, and recommendations for next steps.

Task: Develop documentation for each modeling component. Deliver a Phase I report to Reclamation describing framework, model structure and calibration, and validation to historical data. The report shall be professionally written, including a title page, table of contents, acronyms, references, and illustrative figures throughout.

11. Title: Phase II Workplan.

Objective: Develop a detailed workplan and schedule for Phase II – Task 11 through Task 17 of the modeling project to determine model implementation, and development and management of uncertainty of the data inputs, pre and post processing, documentation, and review preparation.

Task: Coordinate with Reclamation to develop the Phase II workplan, comprising of the development of an application-ready model for each reservoir with all necessary pre- and post-processing routines and other model support software, including the identification of and protocols to deal with the uncertainty of inputs. Contractor shall work with Reclamation staff to identify application objectives, prioritizations, and determine for each reservoir grouping, whether accomplished in series or in parallel. Contractor shall produce a detailed schedule for the body of work described.

12. Title: Implementation.

Objective: Phase II of modeling project. Determine schedule for downstream/in-river simulation, real-time/seasonal, and planning application.

Task: Complete implementation of new/refined modeling components in a way that provides for operational use as early as possible, given the need to ensure that the new/refined modeling component is functioning properly and that a fully operational system remains in place to prevent adverse outcomes as new modeling components are brought on-line:

• Implement model components in a parallel process,

• Define model performance metrics for comparing different modeling approaches.

Develop performance information and complete comparison.

Upon completion of each of the framework’s model components, the models shall be applied to planning and management activities in parallel with the existing modeling and management approach. This process shall provide a means for assessing model performance, identifying data gaps, and determining if continued model development or refinement of new or existing models may be desired. This process may also be used to determine if existing components of the framework are adequate and/or the most efficient means for continued operational modeling. To accomplish this task, data and similar forecasting information currently used in the temperature modeling planning and management process shall be assumed. Implement planned work and produce capacity for model to operate in modalities determined for application. These may include forecasts and hindcasts as well as optimization of temperature operations given known flows. Work closely with Reclamation modelers to achieve goals and educate modelers on applications of model. This work may involve iterative development. Involve Reclamation modelers in this work and share progress in Modeling Technical Committee meetings as well as in a technical memorandum outlining procedures for model comparison, data utilized, linkage of models (modeling framework), results of comparison among models, and recommendations for future activities.

13. Title: Estimation of Uncertainty – Sources.

Objective: Develop and communicate sources of uncertainty in estimates of water temperature downstream of regulating reservoirs. This potentially includes intermediate sources of uncertainty in particular components of the system, such as predictions of lake stratification early in the season.

Task: For all their complexity, models are still only mathematical representations of the world and represent simplifications of real-world processes. Model performance metrics shall be developed as an integral part of this project to provide insight into model uncertainty, from all sources. Further, when a model is used as a forecasting tool, uncertainty can be introduced into the analysis because of unknown future conditions. While models can provide remarkable insight, even in data poor environments, data limitations can reduce the effectiveness of models to fulfill their principal objective. An element of the proposed modeling framework would allow quantified sources of uncertainty (e.g., data uncertainty, forecast uncertainty) to be assessed and the impacts in modeled flow and water temperature defined for resource managers to consider in decision making. Contractor identifies elements in model that are potential sources of variability and uncertainty within the modeling approach. Determine data/components within system that contribute to significant uncertainty in specified model results. Contractor shall review said elements with Reclamation and document them in a technical memorandum.

14. Title: Estimation of Uncertainty – Protocols.

Objective: Develop and communicate protocols for estimating uncertainty bounds in estimates of water temperature downstream of regulating reservoirs. This potentially includes protocols for estimating intermediate sources of uncertainty in particular components of the system, such as predictions of lake stratification early in the season.

Task: Develop estimates/estimation procedures for uncertainty in datasets identified as potential sources of uncertainty in Task 7, as well as any new sources of uncertainty identified after Task

13. Develop estimates/estimation procedures for translating uncertainty through modeling system to model results (may include determinations of joint uncertainty of several input/modeling components). Contractor shall document procedures for assessing and presenting uncertainty results in a technical memorandum.

15. Title: Output Communication.

Objective: Develop output communication/visualization tools and data presentation approaches to assist resource managers in conveying results.

Task: Coordinate with Reclamation and identify key modeling results and uncertainty estimates that provide value to resource managers and other stakeholders. Identify and develop post processing or communication/visualization tools for these results.

16. Title: Documentation – Phase II.

Objective: Documentation of Phase II model implementation, applications, uncertainty, procedures for operations, and recommendations for next steps.

Task: Develop documentation for each modeling component. Deliver a Phase II report to Reclamation describing creation and implementation of. The report shall be professionally written, including a title page, table of contents, and illustrative figures throughout.

17. Title: Peer Review.

Objective: Provide support for peer review of model components and overall framework.

Task: Upon completion of new/refined model components and/or data development, conduct peer review. As part of the 2019 Biological Opinions, a peer review is anticipated at end of fiscal year 2024. Reclamation expects a peer review of the combined Phase I and II reports for all reservoirs shall be conducted to assess the quality of the modeling conducted in the course of this project. Contractor shall be available to provide information on the process, respond to questions during the review, and assist Reclamation in providing responses to completed reviews.

3.0 GOVERNMENT FURNISHED ITEMS AND SERVICES

3.1 Physical Security:

The contractor shall be responsible for safeguarding all Government equipment, information and property provided for contractor use. At the close of each work period, government facilities, equipment, and materials shall be secured.

3.2 Key Control: The Contractor shall establish and implement methods of making sure all keys/key cards issued to the Contractor by the Government are not lost or misplaced and are not used by unauthorized persons.

The Contractor shall prohibit the use of Government issued keys/key cards by any persons other than the Contractor’s employees. The Contractor shall prohibit the opening of locked areas by Contractor employees to permit entrance of persons other than Contractor employees engaged in the performance of assigned work in those areas, or personnel authorized entrance by the Contracting Officer.

4.0 Deliverables

The data collected under Scope 2.0, including calibration data and model inputs shall be shared through the course of technical model development meetings, in a publication in a peer-reviewed journal, and in a report at the end of the project timeline. Reclamation will be the sole owner of the data, models, and all work products that are developed under this contract. A summary of the deliverables for each task is presented below.

Task Title Deliverable 1 Project Workplan Final Phase I schedule, with technical memorandum on workplan for each task.

2 Stakeholder

Involvement and Outreach

Contractor shall produce and distribute meeting materials and notes for each group meeting, keep a running list of identified action items or issues to be addressed, and document the development of the community participation plan and supporting records of all meetings, training sessions, etc. summarized in the technical memorandum.

3 Develop Reclamation’s Institutional Knowledge

Contractor shall produce brief and relevant training material to support Reclamation’s development of institutional knowledge for future model development and application.

4 Data Management Contractor shall develop a data management plan and data storage system. Contractor shall document the development of the data management plan in a technical memorandum.

5 Model Framework Design and Refinement

Contractor shall document in a technical memorandum the description of the modeling framework of reservoir models, including network, inputs, selective withdrawal, temperature curtains, etc. and facility representations necessary to achieve temperature management goals.

6 Model/Selection Design

After consultation and agreement with Reclamation, model selection shall be documented by contractor in a technical memorandum.

7 Data Development For each model, contractor shall deliver a description of the model input requirements. For each model input requirement, contractor shall deliver datasets, data sources, data retrieval mechanisms, and metadata/documentation. Contractor shall document the data collection process for all data sources, metadata, and automated mechanisms for data retrieval and/or quality control in a technical memorandum.

Contractor shall provide a data package of all data collected. Contractor shall provide a recommendation for additional data monitoring which would improve modeling performance.

8 Model Development Records on iterative improvements, interim model products with version control, final calibrated models, and final calibration document shall be summarized and documented in a technical memorandum by the contractor.

9 Calibration, Validation and Sensitivity

Calibrated models, source code, documentation of results of calibration and validation tasks, and potential inclusion of results of tasks into uncertainty estimation procedures for framework shall be provided, summarized, and documented by contractor in a technical memorandum. Updates on calibration shall be provided in Modeling Technical Committee meetings.

10 Documentation Phase I

Contractor shall produce Phase I report, in a consistent format, of each component of system, to be included in overall documentation of the framework.

11 Phase II Workplan Contractor shall produce final Phase II schedule, with a technical memorandum on the workplan.

12 Implementation Contractor shall provide reservoir models developed to application stage and model documentation including a User’s Guide, as well as a technical memorandum outlining procedures for model comparison, data utilized, linkage of models (modeling framework), results of comparison among models, and recommendations for future activities.

Contractor shall provide source code of application models.

13 Estimation of Uncertainty - Sources

Contractor shall document potential sources of uncertainty in individual datasets/modeling components in a technical memorandum.

14 Estimation of Uncertainty - Protocols

Contractor shall document protocols of estimation procedures for estimating uncertainty in individual datasets/modeling components and mechanisms for translating uncertainty to model results in a technical memorandum. Contractor shall provide pre and post processing tools developed to estimate and describe uncertainty.

15 Output Communication

Communication/visualization tools and presentation methods/venues shall be produced and documented by the contractor. Contractor shall provide post processing tools.

16 Documentation Phase II

Contractor shall produce Phase II report, in a consistent format, of each component of system, to be included in overall documentation of the model applications and description of uncertainty.

17 Peer Review Contractor shall develop materials for peer review, shall provide summary/documentation, and participate in the peer review on model components/datasets to Reclamation.

5.0 Points of Contact:

Bureau of Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation Donna Garcia Michael Wright

Central Valley Operations Office Planning Division 3310 El Camino Avenue Ste 300 2800 Cottage Way

Sacramento, CA 95821 Sacramento, CA 95825

(916) 979-0264 (desk) (916) 978-5009 (desk)

(916) 979-2494 (fax) (916) 978-5094 (fax) dcgarcia@usbr.gov mwright@usbr.gov

6.0 Hours of Work:

The on-site support shall report to the customer site each day during normal Business hours, which are Monday through Friday, 0730 until 1730. Overtime is not authorized under this contract.

7.0 Place of Performance:

All work shall be completed in Sacramento, CA, with the exception of data collection which may require travel to reservoir sites.

8.0 Period of Performance:

The anticipated period of performance is September 15, 2020 through September 14, 2023.

9.0 Intellectual Property:

This contract is funded by the United States Government. All intellectual property generated and/or delivered pursuant to this PWS shall be subject to appropriate federal acquisition regulations which entitle the Government to unlimited license rights in technical data and computer software developed exclusively with Government funds, a nonexclusive "paid-up" license to practice any patentable invention or discovery made during the performance of this contract, and a "paid-up" nonexclusive and irrevocable worldwide license to reproduce all works (including technical and scientific articles) produced during this contract.

10.0 Section 508:

All Electronic and Information Technology (EIT) procured through this contract shall meet the applicable accessibility standards at 36 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 1194, unless an agency exception to this requirement exists. 36 CFR 1194 implements Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, as amended, and is viewable at http://www.access-board.gov/508.htm. The Contractor shall indicate for each line item in the schedule whether each product or service is compliant or noncompliant with the accessibility standards at 36 CFR 1194.

Further, the proposal shall indicate where full details of compliance can be found (e.g., vendor's website or other exact location).

mailto:dcgarcia@usbr.gov

11.0 Performance Assessment and Disincentives

(a) The Quality Assurance Surveillance Plan is one evaluation method the government uses to surveillance performance to determine whether the Contractor meets the standards of performance as defined in the PWS. The absence of a QASP for any contract requirement, however, shall not detract from its enforceability or limit the rights or remedies of the government under any other provision of the contract in determining the quality of the Contractor performance.

PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY AND

QUALITY ASSURANCE SURVIELLANCE PLAN (QASP)

Performance Requirement Summary

(PRS)

Acceptable Quality Level Method of Surveillance

Task 1 – Project Workplan:

Create final Phase I schedule, with technical memorandum on workplan for each task.

Timeliness: Developed at start of project.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 2 – Stakeholder Involvement and Outreach:

Contractor shall produce and distribute PowerPoint slides and notes for each group meeting, keep a running list of identified action items or issues to be addressed, and document the development of the community participation plan and supporting records of all meetings, training sessions, etc. summarized in the technical memorandum.

Timeliness: Updates presented at least bimonthly.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 3 – Develop Reclamation’s Institutional Knowledge:

Develop skill set amongst Reclamation staff to enable routine model runs and edits.

Timeliness: Training completed alongside technical meetings and workshops and after completion of model.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 4 – Data Management:

Contractor shall develop a data management plan and data storage system. Contractor shall document the development of the data management plan in a technical memorandum.

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 5 – Model Framework Design and Refinement:

Reservoir models, including network, inputs, and selective withdrawal representation shall be documented by contractor in a technical memorandum outlining a modeling framework.

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule.

Task 6 – Model/ Selection Design After consultation and agreement with Reclamation, model selection shall be documented by contractor in a technical memorandum.

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 7 – Data Development:

For each model, contractor shall deliver a description of the model input requirements. For each model input requirement, contractor shall deliver datasets, data sources, data retrieval mechanisms, and metadata/ documentation. Contractor shall document the data collection process for all data sources, metadata, and automated mechanisms for data retrieval and/or quality control in a technical memorandum.

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 8 – Model Development:

Records on iterative improvements, interim model products with version control, final calibrated models, and final calibration document shall be summarized and documented in a technical memorandum by the contractor.

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 9 – Calibration, Validation and Sensitivity:

Calibrated models, documentation of results of calibration and validation tasks, and potential inclusion of results of tasks into uncertainty estimation procedures for framework shall be summarized and documented by contractor in a technical memorandum.

Updates on calibration shall be provided in Modeling Technical Committee meetings. Calibrate model to within 2 degrees C of historical temperatures on a daily average across the historical time frame for 95% of days in the historical records

Timeliness: Developed according to plans established in Phase I schedule. Progress toward calibration and final results should be communicated at technical meetings.

COR periodic surveillance.

Task 10 – Documentation Phase I:

Contractor shall produce Phase…