Statistical downscaling of global climate models

***THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION’S (NOAA) ACQUISITION & GRANTS OFFICE (AGO), WESTERN ACQUISITION DIVISION-BOULDER (WAD), NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE (NMFS), INTENDS TO NEGOTIATE, ON A SOLE SOURCE BASIS, UNDER AUTHORITY OF FAR 13.106-1(B)(1), WITH ACTEA, INC. LOCATED IN SANFRANCISCO, CAFOR SERVICES FOR STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS.

***THE SOLE SOURCE DETERMINATION IS BASED ON NOAA’S REQUIREMENT THAT ACTEA, INC. IS THE ONLY VENDOR THAT CAN PROVIDE THIS STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS. THE REQUIRED DOWNSCALED CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS WILL ONLY BE USEFUL FOR RESEARCH IF THEY ARE CREATED WITH IDENTICAL STATISTICAL PROCESSING METHODS USED FOR PREVIOUS DOWNSCALED MODEL OUTPUTS PRODUCED FOR THE ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER (AFSC). THE USE OF THE SAME APPROACH FOR BIAS CORRECTING AND STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING IS CRITICAL FOR CREATING AN “ENSEMBLE” (A MULTIMEMBER COLLECTION OF MODEL OUTPUTS) THAT CAN BE ANALYZED UNDER A STANDARD SET OF ASSUMPTIONS. ACTEA, INC., HAS DEVELOPED A UNIQUE ALGORITHM FOR BIAS CORRECTING AND STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS THAT IS IN USE FOR MARINE ECOSYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD. ACTEA, INC. CREATED A PREVIOUS ROUND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND STATISTICALLY DOWNSCALED CLIMATE MODELS FOR AFSC, AND WILL ONLY BE USEFUL IF IT IS CONSISTENT IN ALL ASPECTS WITH THE METHODS USED IN THAT FIRST ROUND. ACTEA, INC. IS UNIQUELY SUITED TO PRODUCE THESE METHODOLOGICALLY IDENTICAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE REQUIRED SERVICES ARE THE PRODUCTS OF A HIGHLY TECHNICAL LEVEL OF QUALITY THAT IS ONLY AVAILABLE FROM ACTEA, INC. THIS VENDOR HAS DEVELOPED A STATE-OF-THE-ART WORKFLOW THAT PROCESSES LARGE VOLUMES OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS IN A HIGHLY RIGOROUS QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK THAT HAS BEEN EVALUATED THROUGH THE PEER REVIEW PROCESS AND WIDELY ACCEPTED BY THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY AS THE BEST PRACTICE FOR BIAS CORRECTION AND STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING. THE DEMONSTRATED UNIQUE QUALIFICATIONS OF THIS VENDOR ALSO ALLOW ACTEA, INC. TO PROVIDE THE REQUIRED PRODUCTS ON A HIGHLY COMPRESSED DELIVERY TIMELINE. THESE DOWNSCALED CLIMATE MODELS WILL BE USED FOR RESEARCH INFORMING MANAGEMENT OF BERING SEA CRAB STOCKS AND OTHER LIVING MARINE RESOURCES IN ALASKA. WITHOUT USING ACTEA, INC WOULD RESULT IN WORK PRODUCTS THAT COULD NOT BE GUARANTEED TO BE COMPATIBLE WITH EXISTING DOWNSCALED CLIMATE MODELS FOR THE REGION; COULD NOT BE GUARANTEED TO MEET THE TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS OF THE PROJECT; AND COULD NOT BE DELIVERED ON THE SHORT TIMELINE THAT IS REQUIRED TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CRAB AND FISH STOCKS. ALL OF THESE OUTCOMES WOULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON RESEARCH TO SUPPORT PRESSING FISHERIES MANAGEMENT DECISIONS.

DELIVERY BY 12/02/2024.

 ***THIS NOTICE OF INTENT IS NOT A REQUEST FOR COMPETITIVE PROPOSALS AND NO SOLICITATION PACKAGE IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, FIRMS THAT BELIEVE THEY CAN FULLY MEET THE GOVERNMENT'S REQUIREMENTS MAY SUBMIT SUBSTANTIATING DOCUMENTATION IN WRITING TO THE IDENTIFIED POINT OF CONTACT WITHIN 15 DAYS AFTER PUBLICATION OF THIS SYNOPSIS. SUCH DOCUMENTATION WILL BE EVALUATED SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT TO CONDUCT THIS PROCUREMENT ON A COMPETITIVE BASIS. A DETERMINATION BY THE GOVERNMENT NOT TO CONDUCT A COMPETITIVE PROCUREMENT, BASED UPON RESPONSES TO THIS NOTICE, IS SOLELY WITHIN THE DISCRETION OF THE GOVERNMENT. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE IN RESPONSE TO THIS NOTICE.