Risk and anticipatory analytics

Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSAFECOM) intends to solicit a Firm-Fixed Price contract for risk and anticipatory analytics support, with a sources-sought response due August 27, 2026. The Navy may set aside this acquisition for small business prime contractors capable of performing at least 50 percent of the effort if sufficient demonstrated interest among small businesses exists.

Work will be performed primarily at NAVSAFECOM Norfolk facilities and contractor facilities. The contractor must provide a diverse data science team consisting of senior and intermediate-level data scientists with operational research, behavioral modeling, and risk modeling experience, plus senior and intermediate-level software developers experienced in code maintenance and pipeline management. The primary objective is to determine risk precursors in the current Navy and Marine Corps fleet of ships and aircraft by conducting structured analysis of historical mishap and incident records, building analysis-ready datasets, applying statistical modeling and pattern detection, developing a quantitative risk-scoring framework incorporating readiness indicators and operational tempo trends, and identifying intervention actions with predictive impact analysis. The contractor shall also provide training to government personnel on building and maintaining predictive analytics models and support operational implementation using decision-support tools.

The base period runs from March 22, 2027 through March 21, 2028, with four one-year option periods extending through March 21, 2032. Deliverables include monthly Program Status Reports and monthly Models of Mishap Risk, studies and analysis of mishap data as required, training materials as required, and a Final Report due 12 months from task order start. The government will furnish available data, office spaces, NMCI workstations, and access to analytical hosting environments; no materials, other direct costs, or travel outside the local area is anticipated. NAICS 541330 (Engineering Services); PSC R425 (Support—Professional: Engineering/Technical). Respondents should submit four-page executive summaries by August 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM to angelo.l.conicelli.civ@us.navy.mil and christopher.d.whiteside2.civ@us.navy.mil.